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In 1973 Sweden entered into a free-trade agreement with the EEC. This meant that the EEC principle of prohibition of cartels met with the Swedish principle of abuse. Paper production was heavily ca...

Waste paper, an essential substitute for wood and other plant-based fibers in paper making, is an indispensable part of the circular economy; yet, the impacts of China's ban on global waste paper cycles have not been well understood. We modeled the evolution of the global waste paper trade network during 1995-2019. We found that the cumulative trade volume of global waste paper reached 1010 million tons in the last 25 years and showed a downward trend since 2015. The global import center of waste paper experienced a transfer from Europe to East Asia and then to Southeast Asia. The ban has stimulated some developed countries to reduce the exports of unsorted waste paper since 2017, but for many major importers their changes in waste paper trade patterns were related to waste paperboard, which was not banned by China, suggesting that this import change trend may be inevitable and irrespective of China's ban. Besides, India has replaced China to become a new import hub of unsorted waste paper. Our results lay a foundation for exploring the evolution of the future global solid waste cycle under the background of zero import of solid waste increasingly implemented by China and many other developing countries.

The increase of trading activities in economic globalization requires a strong international financial and trade system to distribute capital in the implementation of world trade. From the considerable problems in the globalization of trade, the international community has begun to draft several regulations that can be agreed together. Therefore, there is a need for rules and regulations in international trade relations, in this case, an agreement realizing the role of GATT/WTO as an international trade organization that determines and assists in resolving trade disputes between countries. Legal issues will be discussed in this paper is, 1) How is the implementation of GATT / WTO about anti-dumping law; 2) How is the implementation of anti-dumping law in Indonesia; 3) What is the legal aspect of dispute resolution of the case study in the alleged Dumping Wood Free Copy Paper case between South Korea and Indonesia. In this paper, the research method is normative legal research that accommodates regulations, decisions and general principles of (international-trade) law related to anti-dumping, case analysis, and structured classification with relevant theoretical studies to the topic of discussion. The results discussed in this paper are the role of GATT/WTO in dealing with anti-dumping in Indonesia regulation and implementation of anti-dumping in its legal territorial area, and South Korea’s anti-dumping case study on Indonesia. Conclusions from this paper include, Indonesia must better to protect a regulation regarding anti-dumping measures by enforcing strong laws and other anti-dumping regulations. It is a legal urgency as an export-import activity because in the implementation of international trade defence is not enough if a Government Decree regulates anti-dumping actions. Still, it must continue to update the rules of the WTO’s provisions which always develop.

International trade and investment in telecommunications are governed by the World Trade Organization's (WTO) General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) and its Annex and Reference Paper (RP) on telecommunications. This paper discusses whether the 25-year old WTO framework is still fit for purpose. It makes two contributions to the literature. First, it offers a systematic comparison between the provisions in the RP, the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and EU common regulatory framework. GATS builds on an outdated classification of telecommunications which is repeated in the CETA. The RP obliges countries to regulate interconnection, which is also largely repeated in CETA, although regulatory forbearance is permitted. CETA does not offer new market access in telecommunications to either party. Second, the paper investigates empirically whether binding regulation in trade agreements strengthen market openness, measured by imports of telecommunications services, and finds that it does not. The paper concludes that trade agreements may not be suitable for international cooperation on telecommunications regulation. Trade agreements run the risk of making regulation hostage to unrelated trade policy issues while adopting the RP runs a risk of legal obligations to over-regulate telecommunications.

Both trade and production of graphic paper have decreased over the last three decades. While this general decrease can partially be attributed to increased prominence of information technology, the overall figure is devoid of context and thus of most of its meaning to global economy. In this study we aim to break this trend down across the geographical and temporal scope, across its supply-chain commodities and to find out what drives the global trade patterns. Econometric trade models focus on the trading countries and direct exports or imports but fail to consider the structural and the indirect trade relations. We take the approach of network analysis, where the emphasis is on the structure of trade and not on country-level descriptors. We focus on 1995–2017 period as within it this decrease can be observed and assess the entire graphic paper and pulp supply chain, consisting out of printing and writing paper, mechanical wood pulp, chemical wood pulp, semichemical wood pulp, pulp made from fiber other than wood, recovered paper and paperboard. We employ descriptive statistical and network analysis, grouping and role analysis, and end with an inferential logistic regression quadratic assignment procedure model. Results show that newsprint trade decline is mirrored in printing and writing paper and mechanical wood pulp. The trade network densities have remained generally stable throughout the observed period, but the topological proprieties of the individual product groups vary greatly. Although no stabile grouping of countries throughout the assessed period could be observed, role analysis shows that countries tend to trade within their continent, that European countries are at the core of the trade network, and that the structural shift of decline of the trade value is followed by increasing prominence of several Asian countries, such as China and Indonesia. The most important finding of the study is that internal trade effects such as reciprocity and transitivity are much more explanatory than classical effects used in trade models such as GDP per capita, geographical distance or forest endowment.

In this paper we investigate the presence of productivity convergence in eight regional pulp and paper industries of U.S. and Canada over the period of 1971–2005. Expectation of productivity convergence in the pulp and paper industries of Canadian provinces and of the states of its southern neighbour is high since they are trading partners with fairly high level of exchanges in both pulp and paper products. Moreover, they share a common production technology that changed very little over the last century. We supplement the North-American regional data with national data for two Nordic countries, Finland and Sweden, which provides a scope to compare the productivity performances of four leading players in global pulp and paper industry. We find evidence in favour of the catch-up hypothesis among the regional pulp and paper industries of U.S. and Canada in our sample. The growth performance is at the advantage of Canadian provinces relative to their U.S. counterparts. The two Nordic countries, that had the lowest productivity levels in 1971, erased most of the gap and in some cases moved ahead of their North-American counterparts.

The Canadian pulp and paper sector grew from a newsprint production centre to feed the United States newspaper industry to become one of the most significant pulp and paper manufacturing centres in the world, especially in mechanical pulp and paper products. Despite its size it has never broken completely free from its U.S. roots. Recent changes in the U.S. markets, coupled with trade globalization, and increased competition from other producing regions have led to significant change in the Canadian sector since 2000. Looking out over the next ten years, trends are expected to persist and present numerous challenges to the Canadian pulp and paper products industries and dependent industries.

Policies to constrain carbon emissions, such as the carbon tax, have made low-carbon trade competitiveness (LCTC) a significant tendency in research concerning industrial international competitiveness. However, few empirical studies have analyzed the influence of a carbon tax on LCTC. We combined the trade competitiveness index and industrial carbon productivity to construct an industrial LCTC index that can analyze carbon emissions performance and international competitiveness. We then used the LCTC index to build a dynamic panel model with its potential factors, which was estimated by system generalized method of moments method based on panel data of 38 countries between 1995 and 2009. We found evidence that a carbon tax exerts an indirect positive influence on the LCTC of the paper-making industry by stimulating technological innovation. The policy implications suggest that, considering the increasingly intensified countermeasures against carbon leakage, governments should strengthen the promo...

In this work we present three papers that consider the economic implications of international trade in goods when exhaustible natural resources are used as inputs in the production process. In the first paper we investigate the possibility of violation of the static trade theorems when natural resource intensities in two goods are different. In this and the second paper we build on the generalized H-O framework of Kemp and Long (1984). The second paper analyzes the dynamic implications of incorporating natural resources into trade models. Issues relating to production and trade patterns and natural resource extraction rates are investigated under alternative assumptions of factor intensities and natural resource extraction technologies;The third paper of this work considers natural resource extraction and trade issues as they apply directly to developing countries. In this paper developing country debt burden, default risk, creditor response and capital investment are some of the issues considered. The role of the world interest rate and the discount factor is also analyzed. Various useful propositions are derived some of which relate the conservation of the natural resource to the rate of interest, whether or not the debtor nation defaults and the uncertainty in income.

Background and challenges to implementation GATS India 2009:10 estimated that India is a home to over 275 million tobacco users. During initial few years, implementation of national legislation for tobacco control (COTPA 2003) was suboptimal. Post-2010, Ministry of Health Government of India (GoI) took few bold steps to advance the tobacco control agenda and demonstrated commitment to reduce tobacco use and demonstrated early commitment to towards a tobacco endgame. We analysed recent policy papers and measures taken by Government of India towards joining the global call for tobacco endgame. Intervention or response Ban on Gutkha (SLT) and display of specified pictorial health warning (PHWs) covering 85% of the principal display is among the boldest measures by the Government of India. Major focus was on law enforcement especially TAPS ban, smokefree rules, prohibition of sale to and by minors and banning outlets near educational institutions; introducing a toll-free helpline and raise in tobacco taxes and undertaking mass media campaigns. Results and lessons learnt The prevalence of tobacco use has decreased from 34.6% in GATS -I in 2009-10 to 28.6% in GATS -II in 2016-17. The number of tobacco users has reduced by about 81 lakh. The prevalence of tobacco use among the young population has reduced from 18.4% in GATS-I to 12.4% in GATS -II which is a 33% relative reduction. As anticipated, industry challenged the Gutkha ban both inside and out of court, opposed TAPS ban and display of PHWs of tobacco products in India; however public health wins at the end of the day. Conclusions and key recommendations India is in fairly advanced stage of implementing existing measures of MPOWER policies and national legislation; and is moving steadily towards a tobacco endgame. However, this may be the right time for India to think over the concept of tobacco free generation, regulating nicotine content and imposing a 'sinking lid' on tobacco supply.

Los archivos nobiliarios españoles conservan un rico acervo documental sobre el descubrimiento, conquista, colonización, gobierno, administración y los fluidos contactos de la metrópoli con el imperio ultramarino lusoespañol. Entre estos fondos de la aristocracia se pueden consultar documentos públicos y privados con los que reconstruir biografías personales y eventos históricos de todo tipo. Singular importancia tienen los escritos sobre finanzas, cartografía y correspondencia. En el presente artículo se ofrece un repertorio para investigar en tales archivos, que se custodian en centros nacionales, locales, fundaciones privadas o en las propias casas nobles.

During the years 1918 to 1941, International Paper (IP) launched a massive product diversification effort. Engineered by three successive presidents, diversification turned the company from a newsprint producer based in the northeastern United States into an international manufacturer of southern kraft grades, Canadian newsprint, hydroelectric power, and specialty papers. With the exception of kraft paperboard and converted products, however, the new product lines failed to provide IP with a firm foothold in markets for consumer nondurables, where nimbler competitors thrived even during the 1930s. IP and firms in other “maturing industries” that clung to traditional products and stagnant markets contributed to the length and severity of the Great Depression.

The international recovered paper trade serves two important functions: increasing raw material availability in the paper and board industry and providing economic incentives to recycle. The purpose of this paper is to shed further light on emerging patterns in this trade by empirically analysing the changes in the bilateral trade flows of recycled paper between 1992 and 2008. According to our estimations, two important changes occurred in the 1990s and 2000s. First, the growing importance of developing economies in global recycled paper trade plays a significant role in import demand as a determinant of trade flows. Second, the changes in global trade patterns necessitate investigating the transportation cost measures used in applied research.

The world trade system’s bedrock was laid more than seventy years ago and its architecture and structural principles were shaped by the societal paradigm of western democracies. The last two decades have seen the admission of various government-dominated economies to the WTO. This raised serious paradigmatic challenges. The system tailored to the needs and characteristics of western democracies proved to be inadequately equipped to frame government-dominated economies. This paper addresses one of these new challenges: government subsidies. First, it gives an overview of the status and treatment of product and service subsidies in WTO law and the gaps and shortcomings that result in the system’s failure to address trade-distortive state aids. Second, it examines the European Commission’s White Paper on Levelling the Playing Field as Regards Foreign Subsidies (“White Paper”), which ushers a comprehensive European response to the problems raised by subsidization in international trade. Third, the paper analyzes the WTO framework that governs and confines unilateral actions targeting foreign subsidies. Fourth, the paper makes a proposal for a complementary way to address the world trade system’s “subsidies problem”.

After decades of reliance upon NATO in security matters, the EU ought to develop security assets of its own in order to protect its interests and citizens. The Common Foreign and Security Policy as an expression of EU readiness and willingness to play a more significant role in security matters on the international stage led to the creation of the European Security and Defence Policy, thus putting at the EU’s disposal civilian and military capabilities for dealing with the crisis spots around the world. The EUBG concept originated with the first member states’ pledges in November 2004 which gave added value to the EU in the security and defence area, at least on paper, while so far no EUBG has been deployed in the theatre of operations.

Students of European integration have produced an enormous amount of literature on the intergovernmental negotiations that led to the establishment of such organizations as the OEEC, the EEC and EFTA. However, only a few have devoted substantial attention to the international contacts between companies that attempted to undermine the integration process by building private trade barriers that would replace those that governments had agreed to remove. The paper producers began to build such barriers soon after EFTA and the EEC had been set up. Although these attempts were not always successful, the industrialists did manage to create arrangements that were substantially more extensive in their geographical and product scope than those that had existed before. The British government and the EEC were reluctant to challenge these arrangements, and in some cases even actively promoted them. The interwar decades are widely considered to be the ‘golden era’ for international cartels; but for the paper cartels, the ‘golden era’ began in the 1960s, when previous bilateral links were replaced with multilateral ones.

This paper aims to explore various possibilities in the evolving global gas market by constructing game-theoretical models involving the major players: Russia and Qatar exporting gas to the Asia-Pacific and Europe, respectively. We explore a series of hypothetical scenarios based on competitive and collusive settings for the Asia-Pacific LNG market and based on Qatar's export route to the European gas market. The scenarios that are examined are (1) Russia as the follower and Qatar as the leader in a Stackelberg game; (2) Russia and Qatar as Cournot competitors; (3) collaboration between Russia and Qatar as bilateral monopolies; (4) Qatar exporting gas to European borders; (5) Qatar exporting gas to the last transit country; and (6) Qatar transporting gas to the Turkish border under a multi-pricing scheme. Demand is estimated under each scenario to simulate the respective export volumes, prices and quantities, and profit in each scenario. By exploring these market interactions, we find that it is essential for Russia to strike a deal with Qatar in the Asian market and accelerate their gas production in order to compete as an LNG market leader. Russia is likely to benefit more if it can link with Qatar to act as a monopoly on their segmental demand curve. On the other hand, Qatar's profit is expected to be higher under the scenario when Qatar sells all the gas to the last transit country as the sole demand point instead of passing through transit countries.

The existence of tax havens is an integral phenomenon of the modern stage of the world economy development. They compete with each other on the basis of tax rates, privacy level, quality and speed of the service offered. Determining the impact of tax havens is now a rather pressing issue, deepening which has largely contributed to leakages of information, particularly the Panama Papers. However, the leaks of information from tax havens are not sufficiently covered in the research of both domestic and foreign scholars. The article is aimed at examining the impact of tax havens and the Panama Papers information leak on the world economy. The definition of tax havens and their scale in modern conditions of globalization economy is considered. In the systematization of scientific works the relatively different leaks of information from tax havens were compared and the largest of them was identified. The essence of the activities of Mossack Fonseca, the company that was the victim of the data leak, is disclosed. The dynamics of registered offshore companies within the framework of the Panama Papers leak are substantiated. With the help of a mathematical model, the authors computed a trend vector of movement of the number of companies, which are using the services of offshore zones. As a result of regression trend analysis, it was defined that the number of companies registered by Mossack Fonseca tends to grow (an average of 292 units annually). This indicates that, despite the publication of classified information, the popularity of tax havens continues to increase. The main intermediary countries, which are most popular in tax speculation, are provided. It is determined that the simplicity of formalization and registration of companies, the lack of control over subsidiaries of multinational business groups are key attributes of the activities of tax havens that contribute to their use to avoid paying income taxes and money laundering. The consequences caused by the activities of tax havens and information leaks from them have been formulated. The most important among them are: sanctions provisions and monitoring of offshore activities.

The objective of this paper is to synthesize the findings of six individual case studies (Bucaramanga, Colombia; Coimbatore, India; Kigali, Rwanda; Gaziantep, Turkey; Changsha, China; and Tangier, Morocco) by analyzing the similarities and dissimilarities among them and identifying common, cross-cutting themes. The intent is to highlight what institutions and strategies successful cities have relied on to spur economic development, under what conditions such success has occurred, and what lessons of this experience might be applicable to decision makers in other cities.

This article highlights Australia’s interaction with Asian countries in the development of an international legal instrument on marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ). An intergovernmental conference with four planned sessions is currently going on under the auspices of the United Nation’s General Assembly (UNGA) for the adoption of a new legal instrument under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Although there is literature on how Australia and Asia have forged closer engagement on matters of trade, security and culture, literature is scarce on how and in what way they can engage in promoting the conservation of ABNJ. In terms of marine environmental discussion, Australia appears to date overall to have aligned itself closely to other western countries and some developed Asian countries. This article examines the potential scope for increased collaboration with Asia on reaching future legal agreement with respect to ABNJ.

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of international co-authorship of scientific publications on patenting in wind energy technologies. It is found that the number of scientific publications co-authored by researchers in OECD countries has a positive and very significant impact on the number of wind energy innovations patented in OECD countries. However, non-OECD countries produce a greater number of patent filings when their researchers collaborate with OECD countries. This suggests that there exist knowledge spillovers between OECD and non-OECD countries that particularly benefit non-OECD countries. This empirical finding is important because it strengthens the case for international research cooperation between OECD and non-OECD countries in the area of climate mitigation.

PurposeThe paper aims to provide an insight into the psychic of working people in the immediate aftermath of the 1989 changes, especially with regards to their perception of the new free trade unions, how this perception changed and the role that education and training has played in helping them develop free and effective trade unions capable of operating in Market Societies.Design/methodology/approachThe paper has used extensively the archives of the GPMU and UEG to piece together 15 years experience of a international trade union federation's efforts to assist its new affiliates in Central and Eastern Europe adapt to operating in a market economy.FindingsThe paper suggests that attitudes, perceptions and aspirations have changed, both amongst the newly democratised trade unions of the CEEC countries, and the trade unions in the West. Trade union education and training over the past 15 years has created confident and capable trade union organisations who now stand on equal terms with their Western European counterparts.Originality/valueThe authors access to the primary materials in the archives of the British Print Union and the European Federation for graphical workers provides a unique insight which demonstrates that the help and assistance given after 1989 was systematic, well planned, adequately funded and has provided tangible outcomes.

The significance of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for Europe is increasing. The diplomatic initiative “16 + 1,” comprising China and 16 Central, East and Southeast European economies (CESEE), expanded to a “17 + 1” format in April 2019, when Greece officially joined the cooperation forum. This expansion revived interest in Chinese activities aimed at better physical and digital connectivity in Europe and their effects. The article descriptively shows a geographical division of Chinese infrastructure development activities in Europe: the “17 + 1” region is targeted more intensively by Chinese construction projects. Moreover, roughly 90% of all construction contracts with the “17 + 1” region are attributable to connectivity sectors, while Chinese activities in other European regions are more diversified. In Europe, the Western Balkans are expected to economically benefit the most from the BRI, as they show particularly high deficiencies in infrastructure, and so far, have limited access to EU grants. Economic effects of infrastructure projects, however, trickle through European production and supply chains, affecting a larger number of countries than information on projects would suggest. EU initiatives presented since 2018 may help to increase complementarity between Chinese and European infrastructure development plans and reduce associated risks, such as unsustainable debt or new trade barriers arising from increased competition for Chinese investments. The BRI is about to change physical and digital connectivity within Europe, while the EU has yet to become an active player engaging in the initiative, in order to enable improved connectivity in Europe to drive economic convergence and not political divergence.

Since 2011, the European Union’s (EU) free trade agreements (FTAs) include a Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapter which provides for environmental and labour commitments. Nevertheless, the ratification and implementation of these commitments remain insufficient. It is therefore essential to analyse whether the EU has become more ambitious in enforcing the TSD chapter. To analyse the chapter’s enforceability, the EU’s FTAs with South Korea, Canada and Japan have been compared. The comparative analysis was based on three elements: the labour and environmental commitments, institutional mechanisms and the enforcement procedure. Concerning the latter, the ongoing EU-Korea dispute settlement case over workers’ rights in South Korea is the leading example. Until the Commission reveals more assertive enforcement plans, it can be said that the EU has not become more ambitious in enforcing its TSD chapter. Since no major changes were detected in the comparative analysis, several interviewees proposed enforcement mechanisms.

As competition between the United States and Russia intensifies, the importance of nuclear weapons is rising and innovation with regard to associated technologies is gaining momentum in both countries. The other regional nuclear-armed states, such as India, Pakistan, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), also have impetus to implement their own nuclear modernization plans. The Asia–Pacific region seems to be on the brink of a strategic arms race amidst bleak international arms control and related progress. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear-weapon state, China has played constructive roles in the international arms control process and should take on more responsibilities in this tough era.

Objective:To determine the implications of international trade and investment agreements (TIA) for national governments’ policy space to restrict the marketing of unhealthy food and beverages to children.Design:In-depth interviews based on a series of policy scenario ‘vignettes,’ guided by an adapted scenario analysis methodology.Setting:Global.Participants:Nine key informants from relevant sectors, with expertise regarding the intersection of public health nutrition policy, international trade law and international investment law.Results:Participants consistently identified the relevance of several principles, common to many TIA: non-discrimination, necessity and justification, market access requirements and quantitative restrictions, intellectual property rights and trademark protections and fair and equitable treatment of investors. Two main policy design factors that interact heavily with TIA-related policy space were the framing of objectives and regulatory distinctions drawn. Contextual factors may shape the analysis of TIA-related policy space on a case-by-case basis, while the relative power of the actors and institutions involved in both domestic and international policy spheres may influence whether and how such legal constraints to policy space are activated.Conclusions:Regulatory marketing restrictions run the risk of incurring challenges under World Trade Organization agreements and other free TIA. However, concerned policymakers should be aware of the difference between theoretical risk, threat of a challenge and realistic initiation and/or loss of a formal dispute. Our findings indicate that there is policy space to adopt significant marketing restrictions, though an understanding of these legal risks and strategic policy design are important.

Senegal is a typical sub-Saharan economy, which conducted an import substitution policy over 1960-86, followed by a policy of support for the private sector and liberalization of the economy. It suffers from a low level of economic development, hindering the process of economic diversification, and translating into an over-concentration of its exports and production. Through a careful analysis of the main advantages and drawbacks of the Senegalese economy, this scoping paper emphasizes the key obstacles to unleashing prosperity in the country: electricity supply and quality, and the educational system.

With profound changes in the international situation, China’s security relations with the US and Japan are at a critical moment. These relations have bearing on peace, stability, and development in the Asia–Pacific region. At present, China–US and China–Japan security relations face very high and high security risks, respectively. Enhancing crisis management has become the most important strategic task in both sets of relations. With poor crisis management, security frictions may lead to a military crisis or even open conflict. This would push China–US relations towards inescapable confrontation or even a cold war and cost China–Japan relations another opportunity for improvement, possibly driving the two countries into tense relations. In contrast, effective crisis management will give China and the US a running-in and mutual adaptation period and allow China–Japan relations to continue moving forward. To strengthen crisis management, China, the US, and Japan must raise their crisis management awareness, develop crisis management mechanisms, and strive to resume and strengthen bilateral defense and security dialogues.

This article examines two important conditions for achieving the Paris Agreement’s (PA) ambitious goals. The first is the actions of the largest emitters ¬China, the European Union (EU) and the USA whose combined share of global emissions is near 50%. The second condition is the bottom–up design of the PA itself. Drawing on the policy mix literature and comparison of the three major emitters examined in this special feature (see Bang, Heggelund and Skjærseth), we first conclude that the EU has the most ambitious climate targets and policy mixes needed for achieving net zero emissions. Second, the PA has contributed to more ambitious targets and policy mixes mainly in the EU but also in China. Ambitious EU actors have actively invoked the PA goals to further their interests and legalize the Agreement’s dynamic five-year cycles. With Biden as president the USA will again be a party to the PA and is set to join the EU and China in upgrading ambitions. Looking towards the future, the USA and particularly China will have to, in one way or another, to follow the EU if net zero emissions are to be achieved. This may necessitate actual EU leadership by example.

In the aftermath of war, what determines whether peace lasts or fighting resumes, and what can be done to foster durable peace? Drawing on theories of cooperation, I argue that belligerents can overcome the obstacles to peace by implementing measures that alter incentives, reduce uncertainty about intentions, and manage accidents. A counterargument suggests that agreements are epiphenomenal, merely reflecting the underlying probability of war resumption. I test hypotheses about the durability of peace using hazard analysis. Controlling for factors (including the decisiveness of victory, the cost of war, relative capabilities, and others) that affect the baseline prospects for peace, I find that stronger agreements enhance the durability of peace. In particular, measures such as the creation of demilitarized zones, explicit third-party guarantees, peacekeeping, and joint commissions for dispute resolution affect the duration of peace. Agreements are not merely scraps of paper; rather, their content matters in the construction of peace that lasts.

Great power competition has returned to the global centre stage. However, the new round competition is developing with unprecedented uncertainties. The fierce competition between China and the U.S. has already expanded from trade to high-tech protection, regional strategies, and two development models supported by different values. The fact of more intertwined geopolitics and technology reflects the underlying intensified competition between China and the U.S. and exacerbates the direct competition between the two powers for control over the rules, norms, and institutions that will govern international relations in the decades to come. This paper discusses whether the competition will slip into a vicious conflict between the two sides or even possibly two blocs that hold differentiated ideologies, political values, and remarkably different economic models.

This paper examines the size premium of nations. Using panel data for more than 200 countries over 50 years we estimate a size premium (in terms of being small) in a variety of key economic and socio-economic indicators of performance of countries. We find that small countries are richer, have larger governments, but are also more prudent in terms of fiscal policies. Smaller countries seem to be subject to paying higher absolute and per capita cost of provision of essential public goods, which may affect their socio-economic performance in terms of health and education. In terms of economic performance small countries seem to do better than large countries, by compensating for smallness with relying on foreign trade and foreign direct investment. The latter, however, comes at cost of higher vulnerability to external shocks resulting in higher volatility of growth rates. ispartof: FEB Research Report VIVES 2013.40 status: Published online

The quantity of paper recycled in the U.S. has more than doubled since 1985. International trade theory predicts that this will lead to reduced imports of paper, and a shift in domestic production toward waste paper intensive outputs (e.g., newsprint) and away from higher grade products such as printing/writing paper. Import demand elasticities with respect to input prices were estimated for newsprint, printing/writing, and all paper utilizing 20 years of monthly data. The empirical results confirm the predictions of theory, and illustrate a channel through which recycling may be more beneficial for U.S. industry than the domestic environment.

Rather than the prescribed scenario of a Thucydides Trap or a Kindleberger Trap, the global system will see a Transitional Reformation process of contestation and cooperation as power transitions from North America and Europe towards Asia and other regions. While acknowledging that power increasingly diffuses from state actors to transnational civil societies and private sectors, this article contends that, in a state-centric global system, it remains significant that US–China competition, and the wider competition, contestation and renegotiation of power relations between established and rising powers, takes place within United Nations multilateral frameworks. In addressing China’s role, potential, and limits in the dynamics of renegotiation, this article identifies three layers, or subprocesses, of complexity in the current role China plays in multilateral orders in flux.