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The year 2020 in the extent of HCV infection was set for the first milestones on the road to the eradication of HCV infection in 2030. In addition, in 2020 there was a global public health crisis - the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this paper was to assess the epidemiological situation of HCV infection based on epidemiological surveillance data in Poland in 2020.Analysis of: 1) individual data from surveillance in 2020 conducted by EpiBaza system; 2) diagnosis rate from bulletins "Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland" for the years 2014-2020; and 3) data about deaths due to hepatitis C from the Demographic Surveys and Labour Market Department of Statistics Poland.In 2020, there was a significant decrease in the number of reported cases and thus in the diagnosis rate of HCV infection in Poland - 955 HCV infections were reported (2.49/100,000 - in comparison with 2019, 3.5 times less). The decrease occurred in all voivodeships (ranging from 0.50 to 6.37/100,000), we observe more districts in which HCV infections were not detected (in 2020 - 35.3%; in 2019 - 16.8%). The diagnosis rate of HCV infection in women and men was at a similar level. However, large disproportions are visible if age groups are considered in addition to gender. For years, we have observed a variation of the diagnosis rate of HCV infection depending on the environment of residence - also in 2020, higher values were reported overall in residents of urban than in rural areas (2.90 vs. 1.88/100,000). In 2.9% of newly diagnosed HCV infections, at the same time cirrhosis was already present, 0.4% had liver failure, and 0.1% had hepatocellular carcinoma. Among exposures of HCV infection, those related to nosocomial transmission still dominate (59%), also in acute hepatitis C (60%). One-third of reported infections were diagnosed in primary health care, and one in four were diagnosed during hospitalization.The data presented in this paper show that the COVID-19 pandemic deepened the inequalities observed for years in HCV areas. Establishing a diverse system of testing and linking to care in Poland, reaching those in the greatest risk of ongoing transmission of HCV infection, and providing methodologically correct studies to assess progress in the eradication of HCV infection is becoming increasingly urgent to achieve the planned 2030 WHO targets.

ObjectiveThis paper studies the prevalence, co-occurrence, and association of cribra orbitalia, cribra humeri, and cribra femora to contribute to the complex debate on cribriotic lesions and their relationship with one another.Materials179 adults and 53 non-adults from the medieval/early modern Netherlands (800–1600 CE) for whom all three lesions could be observed are included in this study.MethodsPresence or absence of cribriotic lesions was studied macroscopically. Prevalence, co-occurrence, and association of lesions and their link to sex and age-at-death were assessed.ResultsA clear link between prevalence of the lesions and age-at-death is found. Co-occurrence and association of all three lesions is uncommon. There is a significant moderate correlation for cribra humeri-femora in non-adults.ConclusionsLesion prevalence is connected to age-at-death. However, while a similar age distribution and associations between pairs of lesions are noted, due to limited co-occurrence of the three lesions, the presence of a ‘cribrous syndrome’ cannot supported.SignificanceThis is the first study investigating the prevalence, co-occurrence and association of cribra orbitalia, cribra humeri, and cribra femora in non-adults and adults contributing to discussions about the nature and the much-debated aetiology of these commonly encountered skeletal lesions.LimitationsThe number of non-adults in this study is limited, potentially obscuring meaningful patterns, as the cribrous lesions are significantly more common in younger individuals.Suggestions for further researchMore research into the prevalence of the post-cranial lesions and their co-occurrence as well as into bone growth and remodelling is warranted.

A national, population-based study of hip fracture epidemiology is reported following a previously published study for the same population to ascertain the accuracy of projected incidence rates. Results suggest a decline in age-specific incidence rates in females but not males, and an over-estimation of same in the previously reported projections.Accurate estimates of hip fracture numbers and incidence rates are necessary for health service resource planning. A study in 2009 estimated projected figures for 2016 and 2026, for the Republic of Ireland. The purpose of the current study was to scrutinize these projections, based upon actual population and fracture statistics for the year 2016.Population data was obtained from the Central Statistics Office, and hip fracture data was obtained from the National HIPE Database for the year 2016, using similar search criteria to the previously published study. Hip fracture numbers and incidence rates were calculated. The calculated figures were compared to projected figures from the previous report.Population projection models used in the 2009 paper accurately reflected the 2016 Irish population. For younger age groups, projected number of fractures closely estimated actual numbers, however, for those over 70 years of age, hip fracture projections overestimated the actual fracture numbers observed. There was a significant difference in the age-specific hip fracture rates in the over 70 s sub-groups compared to the published results of the 2009 study.Hip fracture numbers continue to increase, though the age-specific incidence rates in the Republic of Ireland are reducing in the older age groups. The previously published study over-estimated hip fracture projections for the year 2016 (and potentially 2026) due to a false assumption of a stable age-specific incidence rate in the Republic of Ireland, which is in fact reducing.

Background Equal-tailed confidence intervals that maintain nominal coverage (0.95 or greater probability that a 95% confidence interval covers the true value) are useful in interval-based statistical reliability standards, because they remain conservative. For age-adjusted death rates, while the Fay–Feuer gamma method remains the gold standard, modifications have been proposed to streamline implementation and/or obtain more efficient intervals (shorter intervals that retain nominal coverage). Methods This paper evaluates three such modifications for use in interval-based statistical reliability standards, the Anderson–Rosenberg, Tiwari, and Fay–Kim intervals, when data are sparse and sample size-based standards alone are overly coarse. Initial simulations were anchored around small populations (P = 2400 or 1200), the median crude all-cause US mortality rate in 2010–2019 (833.8 per 100,000), and the corresponding age-specific probabilities of death. To allow for greater variation in the age-adjustment weights and age-specific probabilities, a second set of simulations draws those at random, while holding the mean number of deaths at 20 or 10. Finally, county-level mortality data by race/ethnicity from four causes are selected to capture even greater variation: all causes, external causes, congenital malformations, and Alzheimer disease. Results The three modifications had comparable performance when the number of deaths was large relative to the denominator and the age distribution was as in the standard population. However, for sparse county-level data by race/ethnicity for rarer causes of death, and for which the age distribution differed sharply from the standard population, coverage probability in all but the Fay–Feuer method sometimes fell below 0.95. More efficient intervals than the Fay–Feuer interval were identified under specific circumstances. When the coefficient of variation of the age-adjustment weights was below 0.5, the Anderson–Rosenberg and Tiwari intervals appeared to be more efficient, whereas when it was above 0.5, the Fay–Kim interval appeared to be more efficient. Conclusions As national and international agencies reassess prevailing data presentation standards to release age-adjusted estimates for smaller areas or population subgroups than previously presented, the Fay–Feuer interval can be used to develop interval-based statistical reliability standards with appropriate thresholds that are generally applicable. For data that meet certain statistical conditions, more efficient intervals could be considered.

Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a "shift-share" method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population-the focus of most previous work-and extend the date range of analysis beyond that which was available for previous research. We find that shifts in the age distribution move the unemployment rate in the direction that a mechanical shift-share model would predict. But these effects are larger than the mechanical model would generate, indicating the presence of amplifying indirect effects of the age distribution on unemployment.

In the European Green Deal, EU Commission has set a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector by 90% by 2050 compared to the 1990 level. Most likely, transport decarbonization will rely on a rapid expansion of electric and hydrogen vehicle fleet, which would seriously affect not just overall electricity demand, but also the shape of the electricity consumption curve. Consequently, our research focuses on integrated energy and transport modelling when analyzing its development pathways up to 2050 and beyond. This paper describes how already established transport modeling practices can be further improved by differentiating vehicles by age groups and setting vehicle age distributions to improve the representation of vehicle stock, fuel efficiencies and emissions, especially for countries that have non-declining vehicle age distributions. Modeling results using proposed and traditional approaches were compared for the Lithuanian case. It shows that the transport fuel shift using the proposed approach is more gradual than the traditional one. Diesel cars are phased out by 2050 versus 2040. Furthermore, the proposed approach provided more realistic CO2 emissions, 7% lower emissions for 2018 than estimated based on statistical data, while traditional approach was 27% lower.