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Abstract This paper studied the behavior of multidimensional and income poverty, as well as its determinants in Brazil, in addition to rural and urban areas, based on information from the 2019 National Continuous Household Sample Survey (PNADC). The Alkire-Foster methodology was used in the construction of a Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), in addition to the logit model to estimate the impacts of determinants related to household characteristics on poverty. The health and sanitation dimension was the one that contributed the most to the MPI, followed by the education and housing dimensions. Unidimensional poverty was greater than multidimensional and rural poverty was also greater. Among the determinants of poverty, being in households with non-white heads, younger, unmarried, unemployed, less educated and in the North and Northeast regions increased the chances of poverty. In addition, while female heads reduced the chances of multidimensional poverty, it increased the chances of the unidimensional one.

This paper projects and analyzes the regional impacts of climate change on the agricultural productivity of family farming and large-scale agriculture in Brazil between 2021 and 2050, using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The methodology adopted consists of a cross-sectional estimation of a production function in which agricultural productivity is determined by climatic, geographic, and productive factors. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating agricultural production into family farming and large-scale agriculture, indicating the magnitude and direction of impacts by crops and regions in Brazil, a country with a great territorial dimension and relevant and heterogeneous agricultural production. The results indicate that the agricultural productivity of family farming is more sensitive and therefore this type of producer could be more vulnerable to the phenomenon. On average, the effects will be negative in the North/Northeast regions and for cassava, maize, beans, and soybeans, with possible impacts on deforestation and on food supply. Productivity gains are expected in the southern region and for the cultivation of sugar cane and soybeans. Deterioration of food security of the vulnerable farmers and regional disparities may increase in Brazil.