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The EU emissions trading system's (ETS) invalidation rule implies that shocks and overlapping policies can change cumulative carbon emissions. This paper explains these mechanisms and simulates the effect of COVID-19, the European Green Deal, and the recovery stimulus package on cumulative EU ETS emissions and allowance prices. Our results indicate that the negative demand shock of the pandemic should have a limited effect on allowance prices and rather translates into lower cumulative carbon emissions. Aligning EU ETS with the 2030 reduction target of -55% might increase allowance prices to 45-94 euro/ton CO2 today and reduce cumulative carbon emissions to 14.2-18.3 GtCO(2) compared to 23.5-33.1 GtCO(2) under a -40% 2030 reduction target. Our results crucially depend on when the waterbed will be sealed again, which is an endogenous market outcome, driven by the EU ETS design, shocks and overlapping climate policies such as the recovery plan. This paper finds that the EU's 2030 reduction target of -55% might correspond to EU ETS allowance prices between 45 and 94 e/ton CO2 today, while the invalidation rule reduces carbon emissions to 14.2 to 18.3 GtCO2 over the EU ETS' remaining lifetime.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The CRISPR-Cas12a RNA-guided complexes have tremendous potential for nucleic acid detection but are limited to the picomolar detection limit without an amplification step. Here, we develop a platform with engineered crRNAs and optimized conditions that enabled us to detect various clinically relevant nucleic acid targets with higher sensitivity, achieving a limit of detection in the femtomolar range without any target pre-amplification step. By extending the 3′- or 5′-ends of the crRNA with different lengths of ssDNA, ssRNA, and phosphorothioate ssDNA, we discover a self-catalytic behavior and an augmented rate of LbCas12a-mediated collateral cleavage activity as high as 3.5-fold compared to the wild-type crRNA and with significant improvement in specificity for target recognition. Particularly, the 7-mer DNA extension to crRNA is determined to be universal and spacer-independent for enhancing the sensitivity and specificity of LbCas12a-mediated nucleic acid detection. We perform a detailed characterization of our engineered ENHANCE system with various crRNA modifications, target types, reporters, and divalent cations. With isothermal amplification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using RT-LAMP, the modified crRNAs are incorporated in a paper-based lateral flow assay that can detect the target with up to 23-fold higher sensitivity within 40–60 min., CRISPR-Cas12a based detection systems can be sensitive down to the picomolar range. Here the authors modify the 3′- and 5′-ends of the crRNA and show this enhances trans-cleavage for improved sensitivity.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22487-4

Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO$_2$ emissions globally and in the United States. In this paper, we analyze the statistical significance of CO2 emissions reductions in the U.S. power sector from March through December 2020. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO2 emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic and adjusting for weather, seasonality, and recent emissions trends. We find that monthly CO2 emissions reductions are only statistically significant in April and May 2020 considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. Separately, we consider the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022. We find that only a small percentage of U.S. coal power plants are at risk of retirement due to a possible COVID-19-related sustained reduction in electricity demand and prices. We observe and anticipate a return to pre-COVID-19 CO2 emissions in the U.S. power sector., Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, preprint