Search

This open access book is the first to provide an analysis of the Dutch paper industry over a period encompassing six centuries. Responding to a trend of renewed scholarly interest in paper industries and production, the book seeks to illuminate the factors behind this relatively small national industry’s centuries-long survival. Previous historical research has shown that sets of colonial, trade, merchant and family networks, tightly interwoven through a dense web of capital, were crucial for paper production and trade in early modern Europe. This book situates the Dutch paper industry within these overlapping contexts and their shifting dynamics over time, and historicizes the challenges and obstacles it had to overcome through four phases of capitalism: the rise of Dutch capitalism (1580–1815), Dutch monarchic liberalism (1815–1914), Fordism (1914–1980), and post-Fordism (1980 until now). Each chapter covers not only technological advancements in the industry, but its development alongside further determining dimensions, such as state-industry relations (industry policies), labour-capital relations (unions) and competition and cooperation, overall painting a picture of how the industry adapted to and endured changes in national and global networks surrounding the industry. This book will be of broad interest to scholars of economic and business history, as well as industrial history, political economy, and management studies.

This book examines paper and material aspects of the written word in early modern Europe. The contributors investigate the origins of paper production as well as manufacture, use, ownership, trade and preservation of books. This interdisciplinary volume brings together the research of paper experts, book historians, philologists, conservators and specialists in watermark analysis, paper trade, the history of collections and object biography.

After the global financial crisis, investment fell more substantially than it had in the wake of previous recessions. With investment seemingly recovering faster in the United States than in Europe, the fear of a lasting gap emerged in Europe. This detailed analysis compares the investment dynamics and capital accumulation in the United States and the European Union, focusing on 2013-2019. It uses data from Eurostat and EU KLEMS releases to highlight the gaps and variations in investment strategies across different countries and asset types. The working paper provides key insights into the investment rates, growth of real gross fixed capital formation, and accumulation of stocks. It reveals an investment gap primarily due to lower rates in tangible information and communication technology and intangible assets after the global financial crisis, particularly in larger EU Member States. In addition, the report provides an in-depth analysis of diverse asset types and their role in the investment dynamics. It uncovers the European Union’s strength in construction assets and its persistent gaps in information and communications technology and intangible assets, indicating a need to increase investments in these areas. Furthermore, the analysis discloses the heterogeneity within the European Union, with countries like Ireland, Czech Republic, and Sweden leading in investment rates, while others, including the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Spain, falling behind. This working paper is a tool for understanding the nuances of global investment trends and for formulating effective strategies to address identified gaps. It offers guidance and insights for policymakers, investors, and businesses operating in the global economic environment.

Paper aim is to overview paper parks problem regarding Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Ocean makes Earth habitable for humankind; careful management of ocean is a key feature of sustainable future. MPAs are a key instrument of ocean protection; MPAs effective management is essential to reduce environmental challenges. A 2017 WWF report highlighted that EU protected areas were at risk due to lack of proper implementation of EU laws by member states and the Commission legal actions. The Report showed the importance of both management plans and to involve all stakeholders in its developing process

"Gábor Lövei’s scientific communication course for students and scientists explores the intricacies involved in publishing primary scientific papers, and has been taught in more than twenty countries. Writing and Publishing Scientific Papers is the distillation of Lövei’s lecture notes and experience gathered over two decades; it is the coursebook many have been waiting for. The book’s three main sections correspond with the three main stages of a paper’s journey from idea to print: planning, writing, and publishing. Within the book’s chapters, complex questions such as ‘How to write the introduction?’ or ‘How to submit a manuscript?’ are broken down into smaller, more manageable problems that are then discussed in a straightforward, conversational manner, providing an easy and enjoyable reading experience. Writing and Publishing Scientific Papers stands out from its field by targeting scientists whose first language is not English. While also touching on matters of style and grammar, the book’s main goal is to advise on first principles of communication. This book is an excellent resource for any student or scientist wishing to learn more about the scientific publishing process and scientific communication. It will be especially useful to those coming from outside the English-speaking world and looking for a comprehensive guide for publishing their work in English."

Using firm-level data from the EIB Investment Survey, this paper describes how firms in the European Union have been affected by recent trade-related shocks, such as disruptions to logistics or access to materials, and how they have responded to them. The responses of firms differ. They include diversification of trade partners and refocusing on domestic markets and suppliers. The paper looks at the differences between firms that help to explain these different reactions. It finds that younger, larger, more productive firms are more likely to respond actively to trade shocks and disruptions, especially through diversification of trade partners. Less productive and less innovative firms, meanwhile, are more likely to be discouraged from direct engagement in international trade.

The COVID-19 shock had a strong negative effect on aggregate economic performance, with the average firm taking a hit on sales revenues and financial performance. However, the effects varied from firm to firm. Were already-struggling firms hit hardest, threatening their very survival? Or did the COVID-19 shock disproportionately deter tomorrow’s superstars at the upper end of the distribution, thus sacrificing future growth potential? This paper investigates where the COVID-19 shock hit the firm growth distribution, using graphical techniques and quantile regressions to analyse the full distribution of firm growth rates. We investigate how the COVID-19 shock relates to growth outcomes for four dependent variables: growth of sales, value added, employment, and labour productivity. Our results confirm that COVID-19 policy support reached its intended recipients.

The use of advanced digital technologies such as 3D printing, advanced robotics, drones, big data analytics and artificial intelligence is spreading. These technologies have uncertain implications for labour demand. Affected workers may need to re-train to adapt to changing tasks or new jobs. At the same time, it is unclear whether or not advanced digital technologies encourage firms to invest in workforce re-training. Using firm-level data covering the 27 EU countries, the UK and the US, this paper shows that employers tend to reduce investment in training per employee, after adopting advanced digital technologies. It estimates, with a control function approach, firm-level production functions augmented with two factors: training per employee and digital technology use. We show that these are in fact substitutes in production, implying that an increase in the former negatively affects the marginal productivity of the latter, and that a decline in the cost of introducing advanced digital technologies reduces employers’ investment in training per employee. These findings point to challenges in realising high levels of firm-sponsored training for employees in increasingly digital economies.

The use of advanced digital technologies such as 3D printing, advanced robotics, drones, big data analytics and artificial intelligence is spreading. These technologies have uncertain implications for labour demand. Affected workers may need to re-train to adapt to changing tasks or new jobs. At the same time, it is unclear whether or not advanced digital technologies encourage firms to invest in workforce re-training. Using firm-level data covering the 27 EU countries, the UK and the US, this paper shows that employers tend to reduce investment in training per employee, after adopting advanced digital technologies. It estimates, with a control function approach, firm-level production functions augmented with two factors: training per employee and digital technology use. We show that these are in fact substitutes in production, implying that an increase in the former negatively affects the marginal productivity of the latter, and that a decline in the cost of introducing advanced digital technologies reduces employers’ investment in training per employee. These findings point to challenges in realising high levels of firm-sponsored training for employees in increasingly digital economies.

Does an increase in lending by multinational development banks affect the private lending activity in developing countries? This paper shows that this is indeed the case using data on loans and investments by the EIB in combination with data on syndicated loans. We find that a pronounced increase in EIB operations is followed by a surge in the number and volumes of syndicate loans in countries outside the European Union. Our results suggest that multinational banks can incentivise private sector lending by playing an important role in signalling to private markets that borrowers in emerging and developing countries are safe.

Many creditworthy non-financial firms are discouraged from applying for loans, resulting in a significant gap between their potential to receive credit and the reality. To quantify the credit gap, this study combines a credit allocation rule with a scoring model that assesses the creditworthiness of discouraged firms. It covers 35 emerging markets and developing economies and uses data from the 2018-2020 EBRD-EIB-World Bank Enterprise Survey. The results show that discouraged firms are less creditworthy than successful applicants, on average. However, the share of discouraged firms that are creditworthy is large, suggesting that credit to firms is being rationed by the financial sector. The results point to an average credit gap of 8.4% of GDP, with significant variation across countries. Small and medium-sized firms account for more than two-thirds of the total gap, reflecting both their large contribution to economic activity and the fact that they are more likely to be credit-constrained than larger firms.

The book collects the short papers presented at the 13th Scientific Meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society (SIS). The meeting has been organized by the Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications of the University of Florence, under the auspices of the Italian Statistical Society and the International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS). CLADAG is a member of the IFCS, a federation of national, regional, and linguistically-based classification societies. It is a non-profit, non-political scientific organization, whose aims are to further classification research.

This publication discusses Russia’s foreign, security, defence, and military policies from both Euro-Atlantic and Russian perspectives. More importantly – this work acts as an essential platform for analysing the security challenges linked with Russia and the required responses of the Euro-Atlantic community to the complex challenges posed by Russia’s actions in the region and on a global scale. This collection of articles has emphasised the perception of Russia shared by NATO, the European Union, Russian pundits, and the regional actors. The uniqueness of the current volume proposes an equal measure of pragmatic policy solutions and academic ones to these critical global issues. From the Euro-Atlantic side, the work pays special attention to the efficiency of the transatlantic deterrence of Russia and its importance for security in the wider-Baltic region. The articles also focus on the multiple Russian hybrid actions of 2019–2021, the lessons learned from Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, and potential threats that might emanate from Russia’s military modernisation. Thinking from the Russian side, elite and domestic discourses, popular perceptions, and future potentialities are presented and synthesised into this broader paradigm.

The employment of printing techniques as cost-effective methods to fabricate low cost, flexible, disposable and sustainable solar cells is intimately dependent on the substrate properties and the adequate electronic devices to be powered by them. Among such devices, there is currently a growing interest in the development of user-oriented and multipurpose systems for intelligent packaging or on-site medical diagnostics, which would greatly benefit from printable solar cells as their energy source for autonomous operation. This chapter first describes and analyzes different types of cellulose-based substrates for flexible and cost effective optoelectronic and bio devices to be powered by printed solar cells. Cellulose is one of the most promising platforms for green recyclable electronics and it is fully compatible with large-scale printing techniques, although some critical requirements must be addressed. Paper substrates exist in many forms. From common office paper, to packaging cardboard used in the food industry, or nanoscale engineered cellulose (e.g. bacterial cellulose). However, it is the structure and content of paper that determines its end use. Secondly, proof-of-concept of optoelectronic and bio devices produced by inkjet printing are described and show the usefulness of solar cells as a power source or as a chemical reaction initiator for sensors.

Of Love and Papers explores how immigration policies are fundamentally reshaping Latino families. Drawing on interviews with undocumented young adults, Enriquez investigates how immigration status creeps into the most personal aspects of everyday life, intersecting with gender to constrain dating, marriage, and parenting. She illustrates how the imprint of illegality remains, even upon obtaining DACA or permanent residency. Interweaving the perspectives of US citizen romantic partners and children, she exposes the multigenerational punishment that limits the upward mobility of Latino families. Of Love and Papers sparks an intimate understanding of contemporary US immigration policies and their enduring consequences for immigrant families. “By highlighting the ways US immigration policies shape the experiences of romantic love, intimacy, and family formation, Enriquez’s meticulous research calls attention to the enduring injurious effects on undocumented and DACAmented young adults, and on their citizen spouses and children. An innovative and sobering account of the far-reaching consequences of our punishing immigration policies. Timely and compelling.” PIERRETTE HONDAGNEU-SOTELO, Florence Everline Professor of Sociology, University of Southern California “In an engaging and methodologically rigorous narrative, Enriquez sheds novel light on the courtship and dating phase of family formation among undocumented and/or mixed status Mexican immigrant families. Undeniably, it will be of central interest to anyone who cares about immigrants and their families.” CECILIA MENJÍVAR, Professor of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles

"The availability of talent and skills has been a significant investment obstacle for firms across the EU over the years, with several sources highlighting the persistence and prevalence of skill shortages. In this paper, we use the European Investment Bank’s Investment Survey (EIBIS) for the empirical analysis, which allows tracking corporate training investment on a yearly basis. To understand the reasons for firms’ decision to invest in their workforce, we examine transition patterns and employ dynamic panel data estimation. We also analyse the impact of COVID-19 on firms’ investment in workforce training and transitions in and out of training. Despite a slow upward trend in training investment observed in recent years supported by labour market recovery, differences across firms and countries have persisted. The pandemic risks aggravating these differences, through its uneven impact on labour markets and differences in corporate innovation, firm structure and resilience. While firm training can be an important element for firms and their workforce to adjust to the post-pandemic environment, asymmetries in training investment could make it harder for those already lagging. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications."

"Financial integration, broadly defined as the intensity of cross-border linkages between financial markets, has the potential to channel capital to where it is most productive, bringing many benefits. However, some financial integration is cyclical, increasing economic upswings and declining during down-turns. Of more long-term benefit is financial integration driven by structural factors such as the reductions in exchange rate risk and the increased regulatory or supervisory convergence associated with the establishment of a currency union, such as Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. This paper presents a new indicator of de facto financial integration in the European Union. Analysing this indicator alongside different financial and macroeconomic variables makes it possible to separate the impact of cyclical boom-bust shocks from the influence structural factors. It shows that increasing structural financial integration tends to improve risk absorption and reduce income disparities among European countries. However, it also suggests that most of the movements in the indicator reflect business cycle dynamics, rather than structural integration. These results highlight the need to develop further policies to foster structural financial integration in the EU."

"Public debt levels are a very weak predictor of a country’s credit rating if a country’s other features are not taken into account. However, everything else equal, more public debt is associated with worse ratings. This paper explores the relationship between debt and sovereign creditworthiness through the debt thresholds associated with rating changes. It finds that the impact of an increase in public debt is non-linear and crucially depends on a country’s economic situation. Low levels of gross domestic product per capita are associated with a smaller range of possible ratings than higher levels. In countries with a higher gross domestic product per capita, a change in debt levels is thus more likely to result in a rating change. Overall, the non-linear relationship between debt and creditworthiness is substantial, and accounting for it improves the performance of sovereign credit rating models significantly."

"Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have liberalised their foreign exchange markets and capital accounts, and have moved to more flexible exchange rates, in recent decades. In this context, the interaction between non-resident investors and export structures centred on primary commodities create a risk of destabilising exchange rate dynamics and further complications for macroeconomic management. This paper presents detailed insights into the micro-characteristics of several African Lower and Lower-Middle Income Countries' foreign exchange markets and the implications of these characteristics for macroeconomic management. It draws on interviews with foreign exchange experts in central banks, banks, non-bank financial institutions, and research institutions in Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Zambia, as well as the City of London. The results show that whilst most of these countries have functioning foreign exchange interbank markets, these markets are often characterised by low, volatile and “lumpy” liquidity. These liquidity dynamics and uncertainty about future foreign exchange flows can lead to foreign exchange hoarding by market participants, further depriving the market of liquidity. Those with access to foreign exchange liquidity can gain significant market power and the potential to affect price dynamics, which has meant that central banks in these countries have remained key agents in foreign exchange markets, to manage scarce and volatile liquidity patterns. Overall, the results show the difficulties of moving towards floating exchange rates, for African countries characterised by concentrated export structures, low trust in their currencies, and shallow domestic financial markets."

Past research suggests that economic crisis lead to a reallocation of resources from less productive to more productive firms, with many firms taking action to boost their own productivity. This paper uses data from the EIB Investment Survey and the ORBIS database to analyse how the COVID-19 crisis affected the level of employment and digitalisation efforts of European firms. Moreover, it examines how these changes relate to the pre-crisis performance of firms, in terms of productivity, digitalisation and growth. It finds that firms were less likely to reduce their number of employees, both in the short and in the long term, if they exhibited higher productivity or higher growth, or were in highly digitalised sectors. It also finds that firms were more likely to increase their use of digital technologies during the crisis if they were already relatively advanced users of digital technologies.

During the COVID-19 crisis, the European corporate ecosystem avoided major disruptions, and corporate bankruptcy rates even declined. This outcome mostly resulted from the strength of support from monetary, financial supervisory and fiscal policies. Using the 2021 vintage of the EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS) matched with balance sheet data on firms' profits and losses, this paper investigates what has driven the allocation of fiscal policy support and the impact of this support during the investment recovery. It finds that support was largely directed towards firms that were most affected by the crisis in terms of lost sales, and was not tilted firms already weak before the crisis. It also shows that the firms that benefitted from this support tend to be more optimistic in their investment plans, especially with regard to digital technologies.

When firms suffer losses from extreme weather events, such as storms, foods, droughts or landslides, it has implications for their investment plans and the finance their need. This paper investigates the investment and financing decisions of firms that experience monetary losses due to such extreme weather events. It looks at firms in 41 economies, mainly emerging and developing markets, using data from the EBRD-EIB-World Bank Enterprise Survey. It finds that firms hit by extreme weather are more likely to invest in long-term assets, in a way that fits with the need to either replenish damaged capital or to adapt to climate change. In addition, they are more likely to integrate climate-friendly measures in their production processes. Although these firms have higher needs for bank credit, they are not more likely to be credit constrained than the average firm. Nonetheless, they face higher loan rejection rates and have, on average, more debt than otherwise comparable firms. This suggests that climate change has the potential to erode the quality of firm balance sheets over time.

Small and medium-sized firms play a key role in the European economy. This paper uses statistical methods to estimate the effects of EIB financial support on European companies between 2008 and 2015. It shows that the effects of EIB supported lending on job creation and investments were larger for smaller and younger firms, and that longer maturities and more advantageous loan pricing are associated with larger employment and investment effects. The results suggest that benefits of the EIB support are more noticeable on an intensive margin, instead of on an extensive one.

"Despite the efforts of policy makers to tackle recessions as they happen, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting negative effects on real GDP, pointing to the existence of “economic scarring”. This paper takes a fresh look at economic scarring in 26 OECD countries, including 14 EU member states, since 1970 and examines the role played by fiscal policy in limiting these impacts. It finds that higher current expenditure does not mitigate the lasting impact of major economic downturns on real GDP. By contrast, more government investment could help to do so, but this is generally less favoured as a policy response. As a result, scarring effects are significant, confronting governments with higher debt levels, which in turn weigh on the room for manoeuvre in subsequent downturns. In sum, fiscal policy makers face two difficulties in the event of a major economic downturn: adopting the right type of fiscal expansion, and finding the right time to pivot from short-term stabilisation to fiscal consolidation, while protecting investment."

"The last three decades have witnessed substantial changes in the foreign exchange markets in Africa, with moves towards liberalisation and flexible exchange rate regimes. This has increased the influence of financial market conditions and heightened the risk of exchange rate volatility and large and sudden exchange rate movements. This paper investigates the determinants of nominal exchange rates, their volatility, and crash risk in African lower and lower-middle income countries. It combines macro-panel estimations for 15 such countries with insights from interviews with market participants. It shows the importance of these countries' distinctive export structure, concentrated in a few agricultural and mineral-based commodities, as well as recent financial integration, for exchange rate determination. It finds that terms of trade, export concentration, and export prices have a significant impact on the exchange rate level and volatility. By contrast, financial factors including the interest rate differential, international market conditions, and short-term financial flows, influence the likelihood of sudden and large exchange rate movements."

"The sudden onset of the COVID shock has left European economies reeling, resulting in a sudden contraction of demand that has hit some vulnerable firms and sectors in a remarkably uneven way. There is a genuine interest from policymakers to learn about which types of firms have been left in vulnerable circumstances as a result of the crisis. In this paper, we present new evidence on the evolution of investment plans of certain groups of firms suspected of being vulnerable -young and small firms, High-Growth Enterprises (HGEs) and R&D investors. We applied a difference-in-differences approach on panel data regarding forward-looking investment expectations. The results show that all the vulnerable groups are pessimistic about the availability of internal and external finance, with HGEs suddenly expecting less of a positive change in investment, and R&D investors expecting a negative change in investment."

"This sovereign default risk index is a high frequency measure of countries’ default risk, particularly for those lacking market-based measures: it correlates with sovereign credit default swap spreads, predicts rating downgrades, and reflects default risk information not fully captured these spreads. We assess the influence of sovereign default concerns on equity markets, and find that spikes in the index are negatively associated with same-week market returns. This indicates that investors might overreact to default concerns. Equity markets’ reaction to default concerns is more pronounced and persistent for countries with tight fiscal constraints. The response to global, compared to country-specific, default concerns is much stronger, underlining the relevance of global “push” factors for local asset prices."

"The COVID-19 pandemic and its effects affected sectors in different ways, including on the firm-level productivity. Findings show that firms’ responses to the COVID-19 crisis varied within sectors: more productive firms coped with the crisis better in terms of closures and employment adjustments. They were also more likely to speed up some digitalisation processes. These findings imply that the recent crisis could amplify the difference between highly productive and less productive firms. When it comes to the governments’ policy measures, we find strong usage at the firm level, but very little differentiation across productivity quantiles, suggesting room for a more targeted approach for the reminder of the pandemic."

Relying on the EIB Online Survey on Climate Innovations, we investigate the different climate innovations European firms are currently using, their motivations and challenges, and their views on current regulatory frameworks. The analysis confirms that there’s a strong link between climate innovation and firm performance, but also that firms suffer from the low availability of finance. To create more successful firms in the climate sector, European policymakers should strengthen policies that reduce regulatory uncertainty and work actively to improve access to finance conditions, in particular for start-ups.

"This study uses unique firm-level data from EIBIS to identify EU firms' climate strategies and the firm characteristics associated with them. Through a clustering analysis, the these strategies are divided into five distinct clusters, in line with the correspondent literature. We then investigate the role of various firms' characteristics in their adoption based on a multi-logit regression. The findings show that almost half of the EU firms either adopt ""wait-and-see"" strategies or plan to invest in tackling climate change risks. More climate-friendly strategies appear to be positively associated with awareness of climate-related risks, especially with firms that see the transition to a low-carbon future as an opportunity. Similarly, those strategies are followed by large firms that are innovative, face fewer credit constraints and operate in an environment where there is a strong push for climate action from various stakeholders. These findings can guide policymakers on supporting firms' transformation to play their part, as an integral part of our society, in the road to a clean, affordable, and secure energy future."

Environment; Environmental management; Agriculture; Climate change; Soil science; Soil conservation; Environmental law; Environmental policy

When they consider investing in energy efficiency measures many firms focus only on direct energy savings and do not consider non-energy benefits that include increased labour productivity. To date, due to lack of high-quality data, few studies have attempted to quantify the effects of energy efficiency investments on firm-level outcomes other than reductions in energy consumption. This paper overcomes this barrier by using novel data from the EIB Investment survey of firms in the EU and the United Kingdom for the years 2018-2019. It studies the relationship between the energy efficiency investment and the labour productivity of European firms, utilising an instrumental variables methodology to account for potential endogeneity. The results show a positive and causal relationship between energy efficiency investment and labour productivity. The findings of the paper suggest that firms can benefit much more from the energy efficiency investment than what is often assumed, and highlight a need for government policies that would increase firms' awareness of these non-energy benefits.

Using EIBIS data, this paper investigates the effects of different loan conditions on firms’ propensity to invest in intangible assets. When firms face restriction in how much they can borrow, this has a strong effect on how much they invest in intangible assets. Using European firm-level data from the EIB Investment Survey, this paper shows that, by contrast, unfavourable interest rates, maturity and collateral requirements have no significant effects on the probability to invest in intangible assets, provided firms are satisfied with their loan size. These terms however, do have a negative impact on the probability to invest in multiple intangible assets, undermining the ability of firms to benefit from the complementarities of these assets. The paper documents the effect of loan conditions on investment intensity, as well. The effect of quantity rationing on the amount invested in intangible assets is found to be limited. Other loan conditions however, like cost, maturity and collateral requirements, have significant effect on investment intensity.

Using firm balance sheet data, this paper shows the impact of credit constraints on allocative efficiency and productivity growth. Allocative efficiency is the extent to which resources, including labour, are distributed to firms with the highest growth prospects, or “stuck” in less productive firms. This paper uses firm balance sheet data to analyse the role of financial constraints in the relatively muted post-crisis rebound in productivity in 2014-17, compared to previous upturns in Europe. It shows that the level of financial leverage played an important role in explaining the change in aggregate productivity growth in Europe between 2004 and 2017. Focusing on Northern and Western Europe, it also shows that the productivity potential could not be fully exploited due to constraints on access to credit. It estimates that reducing collateral bottlenecks could more than double the effectiveness of financial leverage in spurring productivity growth in this region between 2014-17.

In this paper we assess the merits of financial condition indices constructed using simple averages versus a more sophisticated alternative that uses factor models with time varying parameters. Our analysis is based on data for 18 advanced and emerging economies at a monthly frequency covering about 70% of the world’s GDP. We assess the performance of these indicators based on their ability to capture tail risk for economic activity and to predict banking and currency crises. We find that averaging across the indicators of interest, using judgmental but intuitive weights, produces financial condition indices that are not inferior to, and actually perform better than, those constructed with more sophisticated statistical methods.

High-Growth Enterprises have a large economic impact, but it is notoriously hard to predict when firms will experience episodes of high growth. This paper proposes that firms reaching critically high capacity utilisation levels reach a ‘trigger point’ involving either broad-based investment in further growth, or shrinking back to previous levels. It analyses EIBIS survey data (matched to the ORBIS database) which features a question on time-varying capacity utilisation. Overcapacity is a transitory state. Firms enter into overcapacity after a period of rapid growth of sales and profits, and the years surrounding overcapacity have higher employment growth rates. Firms operating at overcapacity make incremental investments (e.g. capacity expansion, process improvements, and modern machinery) rather than investing in R&D and new product development. The analysis finds support for the ‘fork in the road’ hypothesis: for some firms, overcapacity is associated with launching into massive investments and subsequent sales growth, while for other firms, overcapacity is negatively related to both investments and sales growth.

Using macro and firm-level data, this paper investigates the complementarities between investment in different types of tangible assets such as machinery and buildings, and intangible assets such as software, training of employees, and business process improvements. It finds that investment in different assets types tends to be complementary, improving firm performance. Policy measures should address investment bottlenecks arising from market imperfections, while leaving it to the firm to find the most appropriate mix of assets.

Internationalisation and the adoption of new digital technologies play an important role in the formation of new high growth enterprises. This paper examines this relationship for high growth enterprises in Europe and the UK, using data from the EIB Investment Survey and ORBIS. Its results highlight the complex influence of exporting and foreign direct investment on the capacity to become a high growth enterprise and the role of new digital technologies in this process.

The factors behind the pre-crisis growth model of the Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European EU countries (CESEE) region – skilled yet affordable labour force, foreign direct investment, imports of productivity-enhancing technology – are having less effect, but are yet to be substituted. This paper proposes a new growth model centred around a shift towards more home-grown innovation, digitalisation, climate change mitigation and a strong focus on skills, labour and social inclusion, to leave the middle-income trap behind for good and to boost economies’ growth prospects in a post-COVID world. Based on analysis of firm-level data, it highlights the prerequisites of making this transition happen.

The EIB Climate Change Risk Country Scoring Model provides a way to comprehensively assess the climate change risks faced by more than 180 countries. The two sets of scores for physical and transition risks aggregate exposures to various risk factors, taking into account the adaptation and mitigation capacity of each country. The scores confirm that climate risk is a relevant challenge for all countries. However, low-income economies are more vulnerable to physical risk — in particular to acute events, rising sea levels and excessive heat — and in parallel have lower ability to mitigate the challenges posed by the energy transition. High-income economies generally face higher risks from the transition to a low-carbon future. Countries more dependent on fossil fuel revenues are also among the most exposed to transition risk. This paper provides insights into the model as it is currently being developed. Understanding the relative climate risks faced by countries support the management of climate risks at the country level, as well as helping to understand the environmental and policy conditions faced by firms in each country. It can also help to identify mitigation and adaptation priorities and related financing needs. Taken together, a better understanding of the risks and the consequent adaptation and mitigation needs will help to ensure that opportunities to enhance climate resilience are not missed.

We utilize several unique firm-level datasets in order to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of the government support aiming to curb the economic consequences of the coronavirus (COVID- 19) pandemic. The results, drawing on the experience of a small open European country (Slovakia), suggest the distributed COVID-19 subsidies save non-negligible number of jobs and sustain economic activity during the first wave of the pandemic. General distribution rules designed on the fly may bring close to optimal results, as relatively more productive, privately owned, foreign-demand oriented firms are prioritized and firms with a higher environmental footprint or zombie firms record a relatively lower chance of obtaining government funding. By assuming constant cost elasticities to sales, we show that the pandemic deteriorates strongly firm profits and increases significantly the share of illiquid and insolvent firms. Government wage subsidies somewhat mitigate firm losses and have statistically significant effect, but relatively mild compared to the size of the economic shock. Our estimates also confirm that larger firms, receiving smaller relative size of the support, have more space to cover their additional liquidity needs by increasing trade liabilities or liabilities to affiliated entities, while SMEs face higher risk of insolvencies.

We estimate a FAVAR with Bayesian techniques in order to investigate the impact of loan supply conditions on euro area corporate investment and its financing structure. We identify shocks to overall demand and loan supply with sign and impact restrictions. Although tightened financial conditions have adversely impacted corporate investment during and after the sovereign debt crisis, the resulting impediments in loan supply, illustrated by lower loan volumes and higher spreads, have been partly alleviated by strengthened corporate debt issuance. We show that (1) part of the protracted increase in debt to loan ratio since the crisis reflects bottlenecks in the provision of bank credit and (2) the tightened loan supply has been more adverse for small corporations with limited market access. Overall, our analysis of macro-financial developments suggests the need for policy actions to deepen the European corporate debt market and enhance market access for smaller corporates.

This last title in the series covers the most important findings of the five yearsEU sponsored ANTICORRP project dealing with corruption and organized crime.How prone to corruption are EU funds? Has EU managed to improve governancein the countries that it assists? Using the new index of public integrity and avariety of other tools created in the project this issue looks at how EU funds andnorms affected old member states (like Spain), new member states (Slovakia,Romania), accession countries (Turkey) and the countries recipient of developmentfunds (Egypt, Tanzania, Tunisia). The data covers over a decade of structuraland development funds, and the findings show the challenges to changing governanceacross borders, the different paths that each country has experiencedand suggest avenues of reforming development aid for improving governance.

Confronting national, linguistic and disciplinary boundaries, contributors to African Archaeology Without Frontiers argue against artificial limits and divisions created through the study of ‘ages’ that in reality overlap and cannot and should not be understood in isolation. Papers are drawn from the proceedings of the landmark 14th PanAfrican Archaeological Association Congress, held in Johannesburg in 2014, nearly seven decades after the conference planned for 1951 was re-located to Algiers following the National Party’s rise to power in South Africa. Contributions by keynote speakers Chapurukha Kusimba and Akin Ogundiran encourage African archaeologists to practise an archaeology that collaborates across many related fields of study to enrich our understanding of the past. The nine papers cover a broad geographical sweep by incorporating material on ongoing projects throughout the continent including South Africa, Botswana, Cameroon, Togo, Tanzania, Kenya and Nigeria. Thematically, the papers included in the volume address issues of identity and interaction, and the need to balance cultural heritage management and sustainable development derived from a continent racked by social inequalities and crippling poverty. Edited by three leading archaeologists, the collection covers many aspects of African archaeology, and a range of periods from the earliest hominins to the historical period.

Using a representative sample of European firms, this paper studies whether and to what extent financing constraints affect employers’ decisions to invest in employee training. It combines survey data on investment activities with administrative data on financial statements to develop an index of financing constraints. It estimates that a 10 percent increase in this index reduces investment in training as a share of fixed assets by 2.9 to 4.5 percent and investment in training per employee by 1.8 to 2.5 percent. The paper documents that lower investment in training reduces productivity, and show that firms facing tighter financing constraints cut back the investment in training and tangible assets less than investment in R&D and software and data.

Egyptian firms face significant access to finance constraints. Using panel data, this paper examines the reasons why many Egyptian firms do not use formal banking services. Using data on the location of firms and bank branches, it also investigates whether access to finance constraints are linked to the crowding-out effect of bank investments in government debt.

The impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth is affected by incomes levels and the quality of the institutional environment. This paper examines these relationships based on data for 111 countries, stretching back to 1980. It finds that FDI benefits do not accrue mechanically and evenly across countries. Instead, there is inverted-U shaped relationship between countries’ income levels and the size of FDI’s impact on growth. Moving from low to middle-income countries the effect gets larger. On the other hand, it diminishes again transitioning to high income countries. It also finds that absorptive capacity matters in channelling FDI effects. Within country income groups, countries with better-developed institutions relative to their peers benefit more from FDI in terms of growth.

This paper estimates the revenues lost by European firms during the COVID-19 crisis, taking into account different scenarios regarding policy support and the length of the crisis. It examines the likely effect of such revenue losses on firms’ internal financing capacity and on investment, suggesting that the COVID-19 crisis may trigger an fall in corporate investment greater that that experienced during the Great Financial Crisis, with firms facing a trade-off between reduced investment and greater indebtedness. A macro-model based on historical data also suggests that the decline in corporate investment would likely be within the computed ranges, should the estimated gap in firm revenues materialise as the result of the crisis.

This report looks at employer–provided training in Europe. Starting with a brief outline of the economic theory of training, it turns to recent developments by combining data from two employer surveys, the European Investment Bank’s Investment Survey (EIBIS) and Eurostat’s Continuous Vocational Training Survey (CVTS). It reviews the recent empirical literature on the relationship between economic institutions and training and between training and productivity and considers whether financing constraints hamper the provision of training by firms. The paper concludes by discussing policy implications.

Providing a technical analysis of the data quality of the EIB Investment Survey (EIBIS), this paper finds that the chosen sampling framework captures the business population of interest well and that there is little evidence of selection bias during fieldwork. This suggests that EIBIS is a reliable data source to study the corporate investment situation in the EU.