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The study examines how monetary policy affects small and medium-scale (SMEs) in Nigeria during 1991–2020. The paper shows how monetary policy variables, such as the interest rate, money supply and inflation rate, drive the relative outputs of the SMEs to GDP (SMEGDP). In line with theoretical consideration, the estimation includes other control variables including gross fixed capital formation and secondary school enrolment rate to represent proxies for capital and labour, respectively. The result shows that the Johansen cointegration establishes long-run relationship amongst the considered determinants of the SMEGDP. The study finds that the money supply and interest rate, respectively, have significant positive and negative impact on the SME outputs, whist inflation rate produces adverse but insigificnat effect on output. The magnitude and significance of interest rate is more than that of the money supply. Generally, the evidence suggests the need for policy to reposition SMEs. The paper recommends that there should be discretionary use of monetary policy in enhancing SMEs and efforts at promoting macroeconomic stability.

The study examines how monetary policy affects small and medium-scale (SMEs) in Nigeria during 1991–2020. The paper shows how monetary policy variables, such as the interest rate, money supply and inflation rate, drive the relative outputs of the SMEs to GDP (SMEGDP). In line with theoretical consideration, the estimation includes other control variables including gross fixed capital formation and secondary school enrolment rate to represent proxies for capital and labour, respectively. The result shows that the Johansen cointegration establishes long-run relationship amongst the considered determinants of the SMEGDP. The study finds that the money supply and interest rate, respectively, have significant positive and negative impact on the SME outputs, whist inflation rate produces adverse but insigificnat effect on output. The magnitude and significance of interest rate is more than that of the money supply. Generally, the evidence suggests the need for policy to reposition SMEs. The paper recommends that there should be discretionary use of monetary policy in enhancing SMEs and efforts at promoting macroeconomic stability.

Agricultural production measures the performance and efficiency of a country’s agricultural sector. The state of agricultural production can be assessed through the value of agricultural production, which is a product of agricultural gross production and output prices in monetary terms. The study examines the relationship between the value of agricultural production, government spending on agriculture, and other selected variables. Annual data for the value of agricultural production, government expenditure in agriculture, consumer price index, average annual rainfall, food import value, and population from 1983 to 2019 were collected from different sources and were used in the analysis for this study. The Johansen cointegration test was used to determine the existence of a long-run relationship between the value of agricultural production and selected variables by using both the trace and eigenvalue tests. The results indicated that there is a long run relationship among the variables. The study further used the Granger causality test to check the causality between the value of agricultural production and government expenditure in agriculture. The results show that there is no causal effect between the two variables. Lastly, the study used a Vector autoregressive (VAR) model to determine the relationship between the value of agricultural production and selected variables. The results of the VAR model indicated that government expenditure on agriculture, average annual rainfall, food import value, and population positively affect the value of agricultural production. The study also found that the consumer price index negatively affects the value of agricultural production. The study recommends that the government increase its spending on the agricultural sector, which could be in the form of research investment in technologies such as climate-smart agricultural technologies. Additionally, the study recommends that policymakers should review the monetary policy of So

A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Development Finance), The main objective of the study was to measure the impact of transport infrastructure development on economic growth in Namibia for the period, 1990-2019. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was adopted in achieving the objectives of the study. The annual time series data was sourced from the World Bank Database and the Ministry of Finance. The unit root test was used to determine the order of integration, whilst the Johansen cointegration test was used to test for the existence of the long run relationship.The unit root test revealed that all the variables are integrated of order one. This warranted the estimation of the VECM which requires all the variables to be integrated of the same order. The Johansen cointegration test revealed a long run relationship amongst the variables, as it was confirmed by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen test statistic. The vector error correction provided both short and long run estimates. The findings revealed a negative long run relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product. On the contrary, the short run estimates revealed a positive relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product in Namibia. However, the relationship is statistically insignificant.

This paper seeks to empirically test the applicability of the export-led model to the economies of the countries belonging to the Andean Community (Comunidad Andina de Naciones – CAN) by verifying the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, which indicates that gross domestic product (GDP) behavior is based on export (EXP) dynamics. This hypothesis was tested for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The methodology used was the application of Johansen cointegration and Block Exogeneity Wald tests to identify Granger causality between variables of the natural logarithms of EXP and GDP. The results obtained show that the causal effect of exports on GDP can only be rejected for the Bolivian economy. Lastly, the main conclusion of this study is that the economic policies of the CAN member countries should not assume that the export sectors are the foundations of their respective economies. Therefore, the CAN governments should not introduce economic policies that prioritize the expansion of the export sector., Ce document prétendait mettre en contraste, empiriquement, l’applicabilité du modèle axé sur l’exportation aux économies des pays appartenant à la Communauté andine (CAN) en vérifiant l’hypothèse de la croissance tirée par les exportations (ELG), qui indique que le comportement du produit intérieur brut (PIB) est basé sur la dynamique des exportations (EXP) ; hypothèse testée pour la Bolivie, la Colombie, l’Équateur et le Pérou. La méthodologie utilisée a été l’application des tests de cointégration Johansen et d'exogénéité du type Wald pour identifier la causalité de Granger entre les variables logarithmiques naturelles de l’EXP et du PIB. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, seulement pour le cas de l’économie bolivienne, l’effet causal des exportations sur le PIB ne peut être rejeté. Enfin, la principale conclusion de cette étude est que les politiques économiques des pays membres de la CAN ne doivent pas partir du principe que les secteurs d’exportation sont le fondement de leurs économies respectives. Par conséquent, les gouvernements de la CAN ne devraient pas agir sur des politiques économiques qui donnent la priorité à l’expansion du secteur de l’exportation., Este escrito buscó contrastar empíricamente la aplicabilidad del modelo Export-Led en las economías de los países pertenecientes a la Comunidad Andina de Naciones CAN, mediante la verificación de la hipótesis de crecimiento Export-led ELG, la cual indica que el producto interno bruto PIB basa su comportamiento por la dinámica de las exportaciones EXP, lo anterior se probó para Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador y Perú. La metodología empleada fue la aplicación de las pruebas de cointegración de Johansen y exogeneidad por bloques de Wald, utilizadas para identificar la Granger-causalidad entre las variables logaritmo natural de EXP y logaritmo natural de PIB. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que solamente en la economía boliviana no se puede rechazar que las Exportaciones causan el Producto Interno Bruto. Finalmente, se ha indicado, como principal conclusión, que las políticas económicas de los países miembros de la CAN no deben partir de considerar el sector exportador como el sector básico de la economía y por ello, el Estado de cada país, no debe intervenir con políticas económicas que prioricen la expansión del sector exportador.

This paper seeks to empirically test the applicability of the export-led model to the economies of the countries belonging to the Andean Community (Comunidad Andina de Naciones – CAN) by verifying the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, which indicates that gross domestic product (GDP) behavior is based on export (EXP) dynamics. This hypothesis was tested for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The methodology used was the application of Johansen cointegration and Block Exogeneity Wald tests to identify Granger causality between variables of the natural logarithms of EXP and GDP. The results obtained show that the causal effect of exports on GDP can only be rejected for the Bolivian economy. Lastly, the main conclusion of this study is that the economic policies of the CAN member countries should not assume that the export sectors are the foundations of their respective economies. Therefore, the CAN governments should not introduce economic policies that prioritize the expansion of the export sector., Ce document prétendait mettre en contraste, empiriquement, l’applicabilité du modèle axé sur l’exportation aux économies des pays appartenant à la Communauté andine (CAN) en vérifiant l’hypothèse de la croissance tirée par les exportations (ELG), qui indique que le comportement du produit intérieur brut (PIB) est basé sur la dynamique des exportations (EXP) ; hypothèse testée pour la Bolivie, la Colombie, l’Équateur et le Pérou. La méthodologie utilisée a été l’application des tests de cointégration Johansen et d'exogénéité du type Wald pour identifier la causalité de Granger entre les variables logarithmiques naturelles de l’EXP et du PIB. Les résultats obtenus montrent que, seulement pour le cas de l’économie bolivienne, l’effet causal des exportations sur le PIB ne peut être rejeté. Enfin, la principale conclusion de cette étude est que les politiques économiques des pays membres de la CAN ne doivent pas partir du principe que les secteurs d’exportation sont le fondement de leurs économies respectives. Par conséquent, les gouvernements de la CAN ne devraient pas agir sur des politiques économiques qui donnent la priorité à l’expansion du secteur de l’exportation., Este escrito buscó contrastar empíricamente la aplicabilidad del modelo Export-Led en las economías de los países pertenecientes a la Comunidad Andina de Naciones CAN, mediante la verificación de la hipótesis de crecimiento Export-led ELG, la cual indica que el producto interno bruto PIB basa su comportamiento por la dinámica de las exportaciones EXP, lo anterior se probó para Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador y Perú. La metodología empleada fue la aplicación de las pruebas de cointegración de Johansen y exogeneidad por bloques de Wald, utilizadas para identificar la Granger-causalidad entre las variables logaritmo natural de EXP y logaritmo natural de PIB. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que solamente en la economía boliviana no se puede rechazar que las Exportaciones causan el Producto Interno Bruto. Finalmente, se ha indicado, como principal conclusión, que las políticas económicas de los países miembros de la CAN no deben partir de considerar el sector exportador como el sector básico de la economía y por ello, el Estado de cada país, no debe intervenir con políticas económicas que prioricen la expansión del sector exportador.

The main objective of the study was to measure the impact of transport infrastructure development on economic growth in Namibia for the period, 1990-2019. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was adopted in achieving the objectives of the study. The annual time series data was sourced from the World Bank Database and the Ministry of Finance. The unit root test was used to determine the order of integration, whilst the Johansen cointegration test was used to test for the existence of the long run relationship.The unit root test revealed that all the variables are integrated of order one. This warranted the estimation of the VECM which requires all the variables to be integrated of the same order. The Johansen cointegration test revealed a long run relationship amongst the variables, as it was confirmed by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen test statistic. The vector error correction provided both short and long run estimates. The findings revealed a negative long run relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product. On the contrary, the short run estimates revealed a positive relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product in Namibia. However, the relationship is statistically insignificant.

The main objective of the study was to measure the impact of transport infrastructure development on economic growth in Namibia for the period, 1990-2019. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was adopted in achieving the objectives of the study. The annual time series data was sourced from the World Bank Database and the Ministry of Finance. The unit root test was used to determine the order of integration, whilst the Johansen cointegration test was used to test for the existence of the long run relationship.The unit root test revealed that all the variables are integrated of order one. This warranted the estimation of the VECM which requires all the variables to be integrated of the same order. The Johansen cointegration test revealed a long run relationship amongst the variables, as it was confirmed by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen test statistic. The vector error correction provided both short and long run estimates. The findings revealed a negative long run relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product. On the contrary, the short run estimates revealed a positive relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product in Namibia. However, the relationship is statistically insignificant.

The main objective of the study was to measure the impact of transport infrastructure development on economic growth in Namibia for the period, 1990-2019. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was adopted in achieving the objectives of the study. The annual time series data was sourced from the World Bank Database and the Ministry of Finance. The unit root test was used to determine the order of integration, whilst the Johansen cointegration test was used to test for the existence of the long run relationship.The unit root test revealed that all the variables are integrated of order one. This warranted the estimation of the VECM which requires all the variables to be integrated of the same order. The Johansen cointegration test revealed a long run relationship amongst the variables, as it was confirmed by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen test statistic. The vector error correction provided both short and long run estimates. The findings revealed a negative long run relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product. On the contrary, the short run estimates revealed a positive relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product in Namibia. However, the relationship is statistically insignificant.

This study investigates the relationship between the Indian stock market price behaviour and macro-economic variables. The proxy for the Indian stock market is the BSESENSEX while Foreign Reserve, Exchange Rate (Indian vs. US Dollar) and CPI are proxies for the macroeconomic variables. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly data collected from websites of Reserve Bank of India and Bombay Stock Exchange within the time period of January 2000 and February 2020 have been applied. We observe a contradiction between the results of trace statistics and the maximal eigenvalue of the Johansen Cointegration. The -trace statistics of cointegration allude to the long-run association between the Indian stock market and its constituent macroeconomic vari-ables. The VECM is then applied to examine the long-run and short-run causalities and the results reveal the same. This study has profound implications for investors to diversify their portfolio, considering the impact of the constituent selected macroeconomic variables in the short run and long run

The main objective of the study was to measure the impact of transport infrastructure development on economic growth in Namibia for the period, 1990-2019. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was adopted in achieving the objectives of the study. The annual time series data was sourced from the World Bank Database and the Ministry of Finance. The unit root test was used to determine the order of integration, whilst the Johansen cointegration test was used to test for the existence of the long run relationship.The unit root test revealed that all the variables are integrated of order one. This warranted the estimation of the VECM which requires all the variables to be integrated of the same order. The Johansen cointegration test revealed a long run relationship amongst the variables, as it was confirmed by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen test statistic. The vector error correction provided both short and long run estimates. The findings revealed a negative long run relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product. On the contrary, the short run estimates revealed a positive relationship between expenditure on transport and gross domestic product in Namibia. However, the relationship is statistically insignificant.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical analysis of cointegration between Europe and the other significant trading partners, namely US, China, Japan and Australia, for the period from January 1, 2010 to December 30, 2016. This captures the impact of the sovereign European debt crisis and the Greek crisis. A range of parametric techniques were adopted including Johansen cointegration analysis, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality. The results of the crisis Granger causality test during the European sovereign crisis implies the highest influence to be that of the US and Japanese stock market over the other four markets. Overall, found that the Asia-Pacific region plus the US stay closely related to each other, while European countries influence all the studied markets except each other. For the post-crisis sub-period, the Granger causality is slightly different. It is observable that the UK and Germany are influencing all the markets. This is probably due to the recent Brexit referendum outcome and potential consequences not only for the EU, but also for the rest of the world too. Overall, the Granger outcome shows the dependence between Europe and other global markets, but there is no European interdependence during the sovereign debt crisis period. It may be concluded that there is a separation of Asian markets from the European markets and even though cointegration exists, the relationship is rather weak.

The economic growth of India has positioned it as one of the rapidly growing economies the world over and it is expected to be one of the top three economies globally over the next decade. Contrary to a slowdown in the earnings of Indian corporates due to excess existing capacity and the inability of banks to lend, the stock market ie Bombay Stock Exchange has performed well. The objective of the present research is to investigate the link that exists, if any, between BSE Sensex and macroeconomic variables such as Index of Industrial Production (IIP), inflation, the rate of interest, the price of gold, rate of exchange, FII and supply of money for the period April 1999-March 2017. The study also seeks to determine the strength of the link between the independent parameters and the dependent parameter ie BSE Sensex in the short run and long run based on the test of Johansen Cointegration, Granger Causality, and the Vector Error Correction mechanism. The analysis through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) confirms that there exists a long-run causality between the macroeconomic variables of Index of Industrial Production (IIP), inflation, interest rates, gold prices, exchange rate, foreign institutional investment, money supply and BSE Sensex. It establishes that there does exist a short run causality between Inflation and BSE Sensex and Money Supply and BSE Sensex. The results importantly show that BSE Sensex causes changes in the exchange rate and money supply, FII, gold prices and IIP.

ASEAN is an intergovernmental organization in Shouteast Asia, working together on economic and political issues. With the establishment of economic relations, one of them in the field of capital market will give effect to the movement of capital market indices in each country in the ASEAN region. Knowing the integration of capital market in ASEAN region can help investors in determining which capital markets will be used to form International diversification so that it can give potential benefits. In this study analyzed the level of capital market integration between ASEAN-5 capital markets from 2006 to 2017 years. The method of analysis used in this study is the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Johansen Cointegration, VAR estimation (Vector Auto Regression), and Granger Causality Test. By using this method of analysis it is concluded that there is a long term relationship between capital market integration in ASEAN-5. And in this study we found that there is a causal relationship between capital market in ASEAN-5, although not entirely.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical analysis of cointegration between Europe and the other significant trading partners, namely US, China, Japan and Australia, for the period from January 1, 2010 to December 30, 2016. This captures the impact of the sovereign European debt crisis and the Greek crisis. A range of parametric techniques were adopted including Johansen cointegration analysis, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality. The results of the crisis Granger causality test during the European sovereign crisis implies the highest influence to be that of the US and Japanese stock market over the other four markets. Overall, found that the Asia-Pacific region plus the US stay closely related to each other, while European countries influence all the studied markets except each other. For the post-crisis sub-period, the Granger causality is slightly different. It is observable that the UK and Germany are influencing all the markets. This is probably due to the recent Brexit referendum outcome and potential consequences not only for the EU, but also for the rest of the world too. Overall, the Granger outcome shows the dependence between Europe and other global markets, but there is no European interdependence during the sovereign debt crisis period. It may be concluded that there is a separation of Asian markets from the European markets and even though cointegration exists, the relationship is rather weak.

The economic growth of India has positioned it as one of the rapidly growing economies the world over and it is expected to be one of the top three economies globally over the next decade. Contrary to a slowdown in the earnings of Indian corporates due to excess existing capacity and the inability of banks to lend, the stock market ie Bombay Stock Exchange has performed well. The objective of the present research is to investigate the link that exists, if any, between BSE Sensex and macroeconomic variables such as Index of Industrial Production (IIP), inflation, the rate of interest, the price of gold, rate of exchange, FII and supply of money for the period April 1999-March 2017. The study also seeks to determine the strength of the link between the independent parameters and the dependent parameter ie BSE Sensex in the short run and long run based on the test of Johansen Cointegration, Granger Causality, and the Vector Error Correction mechanism. The analysis through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) confirms that there exists a long-run causality between the macroeconomic variables of Index of Industrial Production (IIP), inflation, interest rates, gold prices, exchange rate, foreign institutional investment, money supply and BSE Sensex. It establishes that there does exist a short run causality between Inflation and BSE Sensex and Money Supply and BSE Sensex. The results importantly show that BSE Sensex causes changes in the exchange rate and money supply, FII, gold prices and IIP.

The economic growth of India has positioned it as one of the rapidly growing economies the world over and it is expected to be one of the top three economies globally over the next decade. Contrary to a slowdown in the earnings of Indian corporates due to excess existing capacity and the inability of banks to lend, the stock market ie Bombay Stock Exchange has performed well. The objective of the present research is to investigate the link that exists, if any, between BSE Sensex and macroeconomic variables such as Index of Industrial Production (IIP), inflation, the rate of interest, the price of gold, rate of exchange, FII and supply of money for the period April 1999-March 2017. The study also seeks to determine the strength of the link between the independent parameters and the dependent parameter ie BSE Sensex in the short run and long run based on the test of Johansen Cointegration, Granger Causality, and the Vector Error Correction mechanism. The analysis through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) confirms that there exists a long-run causality between the macroeconomic variables of Index of Industrial Production (IIP), inflation, interest rates, gold prices, exchange rate, foreign institutional investment, money supply and BSE Sensex. It establishes that there does exist a short run causality between Inflation and BSE Sensex and Money Supply and BSE Sensex. The results importantly show that BSE Sensex causes changes in the exchange rate and money supply, FII, gold prices and IIP.

Speculative price bubbles are defined as a significant deviation between an asset’s intrinsic value and its market value and in this paper it refers to stock values. Literature about the theme has noted the existence of bubbles in various types of markets and their respective assets. A great deal of effort has been directed toward identifying bubbles in stock price indices. However, few research endeavors focus on assets as the unit of analysis. Studies about stocks in Brazil have identified the presence of bubbles in IBOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). Given this context and assuming that the speculative bubbles are present in the Brazilian stock market, this research is focused on the following question: Is there evidence of the existence of speculative bubbles in stock prices traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange? Econometric tests were performed on twenty-seven stocks, based upon their positions each semester, for the period between the first semesters of 1990 until the first semester of 2010. The nominal values of the selected stocks were adjusted for inflation by the IPCA (Brazilian Consumer Price Index). In order to identify the presence of bubbles, we applied the Johansen non-cointegration test and/or the Granger non-causality test between the intrinsic value, dividends and interest on equity capital, and the market value (semester closing price) of the stocks. The primary findings reveal a presence of bubbles in twenty of the twenty-seven stocks, at a 5% significance level. Of the seven stocks not showing evidence of bubbles, six are financial institutions. In five stocks the tests reveal Granger causality stemming from the market value toward the intrinsic value. The study findings are consistent and contribute with previous research in the literature and, are useful for investors, financial institutions, academics, government agents, and traders., Las burbujas de precios especulativas se definen como una desviación significativa entre el valor intrínseco de un activo y su valor de mercado y en este articulo se refiere a los valores de las acciones. La literatura sobre el tema ha se˜nalado la existencia de burbujas en diversos tipos de mercados y sus respectivos activos. Un gran esfuerzo se ha dirigido hacia la identificación de burbujas en los índices de precios de las acciones. Sin embargo, pocos esfuerzos de investigación se centran en los activos como la unidad de análisis. Los estudios sobre existencias en Brasil han identificado la presencia de burbujas en IBOVESPA (Índice de Bolsa de São Paulo). Dado este contexto y suponiendo que las burbujas especulativas están presentes en el mercado de valores brasile˜no, esta investigación se centra en la siguiente pregunta: ¿Existe evidencia de la existencia de burbujas especulativas en los precios de las acciones cotizadas en la Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo? Las pruebas econométricas se realizaron en veintisiete acciones, con base en sus posiciones cada semestre, para el período comprendido entre los primeros semestres de 1990 hasta el primer semestre de 2010. Los valores nominales de las acciones seleccionadas fueron ajustados por inflación por el IPCA (Índice de precio). Para identificar la presencia de burbujas, se aplicó la prueba de no cointegración de Johansen y / o la prueba de no causalidad de Granger entre el valor intrínseco, los dividendos y los intereses sobre el capital social, y el valor de mercado (precio de cierre semestral). Los hallazgos primarios revelan una presencia de burbujas en veinte de las veintisiete poblaciones con UN nivel de significación del 5%. De las siete acciones que no muestran evidencia de burbujas, seis son instituciones financieras. En cinco poblaciones las pruebas revelan la causalidad de Granger, derivada del valor de mercado hacia el valor intrínseco. Los resultados del estudio son consistentes y contribuyen con investigaciones p

Speculative price bubbles are defined as a significant deviation between an asset’s intrinsic value and its market value and in this paper it refers to stock values. Literature about the theme has noted the existence of bubbles in various types of markets and their respective assets. A great deal of effort has been directed toward identifying bubbles in stock price indices. However, few research endeavors focus on assets as the unit of analysis. Studies about stocks in Brazil have identified the presence of bubbles in IBOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). Given this context and assuming that the speculative bubbles are present in the Brazilian stock market, this research is focused on the following question: Is there evidence of the existence of speculative bubbles in stock prices traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange? Econometric tests were performed on twenty-seven stocks, based upon their positions each semester, for the period between the first semesters of 1990 until the first semester of 2010. The nominal values of the selected stocks were adjusted for inflation by the IPCA (Brazilian Consumer Price Index). In order to identify the presence of bubbles, we applied the Johansen non-cointegration test and/or the Granger non-causality test between the intrinsic value, dividends and interest on equity capital, and the market value (semester closing price) of the stocks. The primary findings reveal a presence of bubbles in twenty of the twenty-seven stocks, at a 5% significance level. Of the seven stocks not showing evidence of bubbles, six are financial institutions. In five stocks the tests reveal Granger causality stemming from the market value toward the intrinsic value. The study findings are consistent and contribute with previous research in the literature and, are useful for investors, financial institutions, academics, government agents, and traders., Las burbujas de precios especulativas se definen como una desviación significativa entre el valor intrínseco de un activo y su valor de mercado y en este articulo se refiere a los valores de las acciones. La literatura sobre el tema ha se˜nalado la existencia de burbujas en diversos tipos de mercados y sus respectivos activos. Un gran esfuerzo se ha dirigido hacia la identificación de burbujas en los índices de precios de las acciones. Sin embargo, pocos esfuerzos de investigación se centran en los activos como la unidad de análisis. Los estudios sobre existencias en Brasil han identificado la presencia de burbujas en IBOVESPA (Índice de Bolsa de São Paulo). Dado este contexto y suponiendo que las burbujas especulativas están presentes en el mercado de valores brasile˜no, esta investigación se centra en la siguiente pregunta: ¿Existe evidencia de la existencia de burbujas especulativas en los precios de las acciones cotizadas en la Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo? Las pruebas econométricas se realizaron en veintisiete acciones, con base en sus posiciones cada semestre, para el período comprendido entre los primeros semestres de 1990 hasta el primer semestre de 2010. Los valores nominales de las acciones seleccionadas fueron ajustados por inflación por el IPCA (Índice de precio). Para identificar la presencia de burbujas, se aplicó la prueba de no cointegración de Johansen y / o la prueba de no causalidad de Granger entre el valor intrínseco, los dividendos y los intereses sobre el capital social, y el valor de mercado (precio de cierre semestral). Los hallazgos primarios revelan una presencia de burbujas en veinte de las veintisiete poblaciones con UN nivel de significación del 5%. De las siete acciones que no muestran evidencia de burbujas, seis son instituciones financieras. En cinco poblaciones las pruebas revelan la causalidad de Granger, derivada del valor de mercado hacia el valor intrínseco. Los resultados del estudio son consistentes y contribuyen con investigaciones p

Speculative price bubbles are defined as a significant deviation between an asset’s intrinsic value and its market value and in this paper it refers to stock values. Literature about the theme has noted the existence of bubbles in various types of markets and their respective assets. A great deal of effort has been directed toward identifying bubbles in stock price indices. However, few research endeavors focus on assets as the unit of analysis. Studies about stocks in Brazil have identified the presence of bubbles in IBOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). Given this context and assuming that the speculative bubbles are present in the Brazilian stock market, this research is focused on the following question: Is there evidence of the existence of speculative bubbles in stock prices traded on the São Paulo Stock Exchange? Econometric tests were performed on twenty-seven stocks, based upon their positions each semester, for the period between the first semesters of 1990 until the first semester of 2010. The nominal values of the selected stocks were adjusted for inflation by the IPCA (Brazilian Consumer Price Index). In order to identify the presence of bubbles, we applied the Johansen non-cointegration test and/or the Granger non-causality test between the intrinsic value, dividends and interest on equity capital, and the market value (semester closing price) of the stocks. The primary findings reveal a presence of bubbles in twenty of the twenty-seven stocks, at a 5% significance level. Of the seven stocks not showing evidence of bubbles, six are financial institutions. In five stocks the tests reveal Granger causality stemming from the market value toward the intrinsic value. The study findings are consistent and contribute with previous research in the literature and, are useful for investors, financial institutions, academics, government agents, and traders., Las burbujas de precios especulativas se definen como una desviación significativa entre el valor intrínseco de un activo y su valor de mercado y en este articulo se refiere a los valores de las acciones. La literatura sobre el tema ha se˜nalado la existencia de burbujas en diversos tipos de mercados y sus respectivos activos. Un gran esfuerzo se ha dirigido hacia la identificación de burbujas en los índices de precios de las acciones. Sin embargo, pocos esfuerzos de investigación se centran en los activos como la unidad de análisis. Los estudios sobre existencias en Brasil han identificado la presencia de burbujas en IBOVESPA (Índice de Bolsa de São Paulo). Dado este contexto y suponiendo que las burbujas especulativas están presentes en el mercado de valores brasile˜no, esta investigación se centra en la siguiente pregunta: ¿Existe evidencia de la existencia de burbujas especulativas en los precios de las acciones cotizadas en la Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo? Las pruebas econométricas se realizaron en veintisiete acciones, con base en sus posiciones cada semestre, para el período comprendido entre los primeros semestres de 1990 hasta el primer semestre de 2010. Los valores nominales de las acciones seleccionadas fueron ajustados por inflación por el IPCA (Índice de precio). Para identificar la presencia de burbujas, se aplicó la prueba de no cointegración de Johansen y / o la prueba de no causalidad de Granger entre el valor intrínseco, los dividendos y los intereses sobre el capital social, y el valor de mercado (precio de cierre semestral). Los hallazgos primarios revelan una presencia de burbujas en veinte de las veintisiete poblaciones con UN nivel de significación del 5%. De las siete acciones que no muestran evidencia de burbujas, seis son instituciones financieras. En cinco poblaciones las pruebas revelan la causalidad de Granger, derivada del valor de mercado hacia el valor intrínseco. Los resultados del estudio son consistentes y contribuyen con investigaciones p

This dissertation examines the interaction between European Emerging markets including cointegration, volatility, correlation and spillover effects. This study is also concerned with the process of the enlargement of the European Union and how this affects the emerging markets of newcomers. The twelve emerging markets studied are Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, which are all progressing very rapidly in their reforms and domestic economic stability. The majority of prior studies on stock market comovements and integration have concentrated on mature developed markets or the advanced emerging markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland whilst the behaviour and interrelationship of other Central and Eastern European equity markets has been neglected. This study fills that gap. There are two key aspects investigated in this study. Firstly the cointegration between studied emerging markets and secondly the volatility and spillover effects. The cointegration analysis examines the short and long run behaviour of the twelve emerging stock markets and assesses the impact of the EU on stock market linkages as revealed by the time series behaviour of their stock market indices. The adopted time- series framework incorporates the Johansen procedure, Granger Causality tests, Variance Decompositions and Impulse Response analyses. The cointegration results for both pre- and post- EU periods confirm the existence of long run relationships between markets. Granger Causality relationships are indentified among the most advanced emerging markets. The Variance Decomposition analyses find evidence of regional integration amongst the markets. Furthermore, the Impulse Response function illustrates that the shocks in returns for all twelve markets persist for very short time periods. The volatility and spillover analysis applies several univariate models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedas

"It is the part of a wise man to keep himself today for tomorrow, and not venture all his eggs in one basket." - Don Quixote (Part I, Book III, Chapter 9) by Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra [1547-1616] This research aimed to investigate whether it is possible for investors to diversify their investment and reduce the risk of investment by investing in the selected European countries. Stock market cointegration and international diversification is a widely accepted topic among the scholars and academics in recent years. This current study is motivated from the significant amount of interesting studies in this field. A combination of not perfectly positively correlated instruments gives the investor an opportunity to gain from portfolio diversification. Similarly, Investors can attain diversification benefit if one country’s stock market is not cointegrated with other country’s stock market. Six European countries and a time frame of ten years (January, 2001 to December, 2010) have been taken into consideration for the purpose of this research. The countries are UK, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Poland, and Czech Republic. The time period of the study is divided into two sub period to observe the recent crisis effect on these selected countries. A quantitative approach is adopted in the research. We used an econometric model for this research which is Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration approach. The evidence from the study suggest that although cointegration exists among the selected countries in some extent, investors can still get some diversification opportunity by investing in the emerging countries (Czech Republic and Poland). This study is unique in the sense that in our research, we wanted to fill the research gap by combining new and old EU member countries with the latest time period of study and also considered the recent crisis effect. This study has a number of implications on portfolio managers, policy makers, and

"It is the part of a wise man to keep himself today for tomorrow, and not venture all his eggs in one basket." - Don Quixote (Part I, Book III, Chapter 9) by Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra [1547-1616] This research aimed to investigate whether it is possible for investors to diversify their investment and reduce the risk of investment by investing in the selected European countries. Stock market cointegration and international diversification is a widely accepted topic among the scholars and academics in recent years. This current study is motivated from the significant amount of interesting studies in this field. A combination of not perfectly positively correlated instruments gives the investor an opportunity to gain from portfolio diversification. Similarly, Investors can attain diversification benefit if one country’s stock market is not cointegrated with other country’s stock market. Six European countries and a time frame of ten years (January, 2001 to December, 2010) have been taken into consideration for the purpose of this research. The countries are UK, Denmark, Germany, Spain, Poland, and Czech Republic. The time period of the study is divided into two sub period to observe the recent crisis effect on these selected countries. A quantitative approach is adopted in the research. We used an econometric model for this research which is Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration approach. The evidence from the study suggest that although cointegration exists among the selected countries in some extent, investors can still get some diversification opportunity by investing in the emerging countries (Czech Republic and Poland). This study is unique in the sense that in our research, we wanted to fill the research gap by combining new and old EU member countries with the latest time period of study and also considered the recent crisis effect. This study has a number of implications on portfolio managers, policy makers, and

Spatial and intertemporal integration of food markets in developing countries are important for the price system to efficiently allocate resources and products across regions and time. India’s liberalisation of food crop marketing in the early 1990’s has renewed interest in evaluating the consequences for market integration. Not surprisingly, this interest is widespread because structural change and liberalisation have occurred in the agricultural sectors of many developing countries. Given the importance of this topic there have been many international studies on agricultural market integration. The influential research in the 1990’s criticised the early reliance on correlation analysis due to the prevalence of temporal trends in agricultural commodity prices. These studies commonly used Engle-Granger type cointegration techniques to overcome the statistical inference problems. The finding of cointegration was presented as evidence of market integration. This paper provides a critique of the reliance of these studies on the analysis of pairwise price relationships using correlation and cointegration techniques. It is shown by a simple example using Indian wholesale wheat prices that analyses which ignore the effects of simultaneity are flawed and any conclusions about market integration based on this methodology, will be invalid. A conceptual framework is developed which formally models market price interdependencies in a simultaneous system of temporal price equations. Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to estimate the minimum amount of information needed to identify the market system. This procedure derives significant long run cross-price, own-price, non-price and short run equilibrating price elasticity measures which are used to indicate the degree of market integration. Evidence is provided on market integration for Indian wheat, jower, paddy rice, groundnut, rapeseed and mustard seed. Comparisons are made before and after agricultural marketing

Golab, A., Jie, F., Powell, R., & Zamojska, A. (2018). Cointegration between the European Union and the selected global markets following Sovereign Debt Crisis. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(1), 35-45. Available here