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Early detection of emerging carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in food-producing animals is essential to control the spread of CPE. We assessed the risk of CPE introduction from imported livestock, livestock feed, companion animals, hospital patients, and returning travelers into livestock farms in The Netherlands, including (1) broiler, (2) broiler breeder, (3) fattening pig, (4) breeding pig, (5) farrow-to-finish pig, and (6) veal calf farms. The expected annual number of introductions was calculated from the number of farms exposed to each CPE source and the probability that at least one animal in an exposed farm is colonized. The total number of farms with CPE colonization was estimated to be the highest for fattening pig farms, whereas the probability of introduction for an individual farm was the highest for broiler farms. Livestock feed and imported livestock are the most likely sources of CPE introduction into Dutch livestock farms. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the number of fattening pig farms determined the number of high introductions in fattening pigs from feed, and that uncertainty on CPE prevalence impacted the absolute risk estimate for all farm types. The results of this study can be used to inform risk-based surveillance for CPE in livestock farms.

Early detection of emerging carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in food-producing animals is essential to control the spread of CPE. We assessed the risk of CPE introduction from imported livestock, livestock feed, companion animals, hospital patients, and returning travelers into livestock farms in The Netherlands, including (1) broiler, (2) broiler breeder, (3) fattening pig, (4) breeding pig, (5) farrow-to-finish pig, and (6) veal calf farms. The expected annual number of introductions was calculated from the number of farms exposed to each CPE source and the probability that at least one animal in an exposed farm is colonized. The total number of farms with CPE colonization was estimated to be the highest for fattening pig farms, whereas the probability of introduction for an individual farm was the highest for broiler farms. Livestock feed and imported livestock are the most likely sources of CPE introduction into Dutch livestock farms. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the number of fattening pig farms determined the number of high introductions in fattening pigs from feed, and that uncertainty on CPE prevalence impacted the absolute risk estimate for all farm types. The results of this study can be used to inform risk-based surveillance for CPE in livestock farms.

In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclu

In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclusio

In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclu

This Technical Report describes the activities developed in the scope of the EU-FORA Fellowship, within the work programme of risk assessment (RA) of exotic disease incursion and spread, developed at Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR). The programme focused on the work carried out in the Generic risk assessment for introduction of animal diseases (G-RAID) project, which brings together a number of different generic RA tools from multiple European partners. The aim of the fellowship was to gain understanding of veterinary import risk assessment by using different RA tools and to learn how different algorithms can be used to calculate disease incursion risks. G-RAID's tools cover a wide range of RA methodologies; from purely qualitative, to semi-quantitative and fully stochastic quantitative methods, which allowed the fellow to understand a variety of algorithms used to produce the final risk estimate. The fellowship programme provided the fellow with the chance to learn in detail about how generic RAs are performed across Europe, understanding how to deal with the uncertainty and variability involved in RAs and the potential problems of data availability and reliability. The fellow made an inventory of publicly available databases on disease occurrence and international trade that could be used for import RA and assessed their quality and usefulness for the different generic RA tools. The programme also provided the fellow the opportunity to perform several import risk assessments using the RA tools of G-RAID. She completed a RA on African swine fever using the MINTRISK model developed by WBVR. Furthermore, she assessed the risk of foot and mouth disease introduction using the Rapid Risk Assessment Tool (RRAT) model developed by WBVR and the COMPARE model developed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). To this end, the fellow completed a short-term visit to APHA, enabling her to have additional training in quantitative RA and to expand her professional

In intra-EU trade, the health status of animals is warranted by issuing a health certificate after clinical inspection in the exporting country. This certificate cannot provide guarantee of absence of infection, especially not for diseases with a long incubation period and no overt clinical signs such as bovine tuberculosis (bTB). The Netherlands are officially free from bTB since 1999. However, frequent reintroductions occurred in the past 15 years through importation of infected cattle. Additional testing (AT) of imported cattle could enhance the probability of detecting an imported bTB infection in an early stage. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of risk-based AT for bTB in cattle imported into The Netherlands.A generic stochastic import risk model was developed that simulates introduction of infection into an importing country through importation of live animals. Main output parameters are the number of infected animals that is imported (Ninf), the number of infected animals that is detected by testing (Ndet), and the economic losses incurred by importing infected animals (loss). The model was parameterized for bTB. Model calculations were optimized to either maximize Ndet or to minimize loss.Model results indicate that the risk of bTB introduction into The Netherlands is very high. For the current situation in which Dutch health checks on imported cattle are limited to a clinical inspection of a random sample of 5–10% of imported animals, the calculated annual Ninf = 99 (median value). Random AT of 8% of all imported cattle results in Ndet = 7 (median value), while the median Ndet = 75 if the sampling strategy for AT is optimized to maximize Ndet. However, in the latter scenario, loss is more than twice as large as in the current situation, because only calves are tested for which cost of detection is higher than the expected gain of preventing a possible outbreak. When optimizing the sampling strategy for AT to minimize loss, only breed