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Foreign and native populations differ in terms of breast cancer outcomes. Studies rarely distinguish between premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer, although the risk profile is different; nor between migrants of the first and second generation (FG and SG), which is crucial to examine genetic and environmental influences on breast cancer. This research fills these gaps by investigating patterns in breast cancer incidence and survival in different migrant groups by menopausal and migrant generational status, taking various risk factors into account. To this end, individually linked data from the 2001 census, the Belgian Cancer Registry and the Crossroads Bank for Social Security are used. Age‐standardised incidence rates and incidence rate ratios are calculated by migrant background group, stratified according to ages 30–50 (premenopausal) and 50–70 (postmenopausal). Incidence rate ratios are examined with and without taking reproductive factors and socioeconomic position (SEP) into account. Relative survival percentages and relative excess risks of dying among premenopausal and postmenopausal patients are computed with and without controlling for the stage at diagnosis and SEP. Premenopausal breast cancer is further examined by migrant generational status. Breast cancer incidence is lower among non‐European migrants compared to Belgians. Keeping SEP and known risk factors constant reduces much, but not all of the observed discrepancies. A risk convergence between SG migrants and Belgians for the development of premenopausal breast cancer is observed. Premenopausal breast cancer survival is worse among Moroccan patients due to a higher stage at diagnosis. This disadvantage is concentrated in the FG.

This study examines the association between having children born before the current partnership and women’s and men’s likelihood of transitioning from living apart together (LAT) to co-residing. LAT partnerships are common among individuals with pre-partnership children, but have so far been under-researched. Our study not only focuses on those in LAT relations, but also takes the different pathways to becoming a single parent into account. Event-history analysis was performed using waves 1-4 from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study. The results indicate that separated and widowed mothers were less likely to transition to co-residence with their LAT partner than childless women who had previously been in a co-residential union. Mothers who had previous out-of-union children were found to be even less likely to enter co-residence. Results were mostly similar for men and women. The only exception was the effect of being widowed with children; for men this resulted in higher chances of transitioning to co-residence with a new partner whereas for women the chances were lower. The findings suggest that individuals’ parenthood and union histories are associated with the development of their later partnerships, and that these patterns vary by gender. Given contemporary and future patterns of partnership separation, our study provides insights for better understanding how LAT relations develop for different sub-populations.

Background Migration plays an increasingly important role in shaping the demographic profiles of developed countries and receives ample attention in society at large as well as among policymakers. To understand how migration flows might evolve in the future, the QuantMig project set the goal of producing migration scenarios to support European migration policy. To do so, we need to make clear with what purpose scenarios are developed, how they are developed, and on which flows they focus. Other questions concern whether they are designed to describe the most likely future or a possible future, whether they are extrapolating trends observed in the past (assuming no fundamental changes in policies), or whether they are designed to describe desirable futures (migration as a panacea for ageing societies) or undesirable futures (massive inflow of immigration from developing countries). To produce the best possible migration scenarios, it is essential to get an overview of the literature. Migration scenarios have been used in a variety of future characterisations including forecasts, projections, and foresights. However, the term migration scenario is rarely well-defined or used consistently. Before developing a set of own scenarios, this document takes the necessary step of providing an overview of the existing literature and provide a definition and typology of migration scenarios. Based on this work, alternative ways of exploring the future of migration (for example in a vignette survey) will be discussed that lay out the bases for the extension of the work in the next deliverables of the work package. Methods This document looks at how migration scenarios are used in the literature presenting characterisations of societies’ futures. Relevant documents are systematically retrieved and assigned to one of six categories part of a pre-established typology. The typology rests on the focus (either migration or another aspect of societies influenced by migration

Research on the union formation of the children of immigrants, the so-called second generation, focusses primarily on marriage and cohabitation. Even though dating relationships are often the first romantic relations and lay the foundation for more committed relationships, very little is known about dating among second-generation young adults. This is unfortunate because dating across different origin groups may point to changing or shifting group boundaries, that may only later be reflected in interethnic marriages. In this paper we aim to fill this gap in the literature by exploring the dating behavior of Turkish second-generation young adults in five European countries (the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, France) using the comparative TIES survey data. Our results show that it is common for the Turkish second generation to date a partner with a non-Turkish background. And, moreover, that it is important to distinguish between different types of intra-ethnic partnerships. Although only few parents are reported not to approve of the relationship of their child, a substantial part of the second generation seems reluctant to inform their parents about their dating life. With regard to the role of parents, it seems that their influence on the origin of dating partners is limited. In order to enhance our understanding of the meaning of (intergroup-) dating, its determinants and outcomes, future data may focus more on meeting places and the role of peers in a longitudinal way. We argue that dating is an important indicator for intergroup relations that deserves further attention in increasingly diverse societies.

There is much debate on the sustainability of (generous) welfare systems in the context of freedom of movement within the European Union (EU), often assuming that migrants’ welfare access is only regulated by national borders. In this chapter the authors analyse how and to what extent this assumption is accurate. They use large-scale population data from the Netherlands as a case study for analysing the migration patterns and labour market status of Polish and Bulgarian migrants after these countries joined the EU. Their findings do not support the political and scientific discourse that pressures on generous welfare systems increased due to the 2004 and 2007 EU enlargements. In practice, individuals’ welfare access in the context of free mobility of EU migrants is largely determined by national eligibility criteria tied to their lifecourse stage, labour market status and length of stay in the country. The authors’ findings point to the importance of including lifecourse characteristics for the study of migration and the welfare state.

This paper aims to advance understandings of young Syrian men in forced displacement in relation to the frequently partial and ambiguous position of immigrant men in societal debates on gender- and partner roles, debates in which immigrant men frequently find themselves as static agents. Such debatesoften produce and reinforce one-sided accounts of husbands, partners or potential partners whose relationship’s attitudes, traditions and behaviours seem to abide by fixed blueprints. Earlier studies, however, emphasise nuanced and plural understandings of immigrant men and call attention to men as agentic individuals who actively negotiate emotional, economic and political hardships (Charsley, 2005; Gallo, 2006; Huizinga and van Hoven, 2020). Moreover, Hyman et al. (2008) and Shirpak et al. (2011) illustrate experiences of intimate partner relationships after migration to be both positive andnegative, depending on the agentic capacities of immigrant men to adapt to new circumstances.

In this demographic profile of Syrians in the Netherlands we provide an overview of their recent migration history and migrant characteristics. It is evidenced that the pre-2014 population of Syrian origin was relatively small and increased mainly due to an expanding second generation (children born in the Netherlands). After 2014, the settlement of almost 28,000 Syrian refugees in 2016 contributed most to the increase in the size of this population of migrant origin. Like in many other origin groups, we show for Syrians that men often arrived first, after which family reunification took place resulting in a young population structure. A year after arrival, most Syrians no longer live in reception centres but independently, with no concentration in urban areas. Integration into the labour force is shown to be a slow process; 30 months after being granted a residence permit a minority has a paid job.

Key Messages One of the most urgent policy issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe concerns the extent and ways in which demographics have determined different patterns of mortality between groups and regions, and whether and how the pandemic and its economic consequences will affect population dynamics in the future. Post-pandemic policy evaluations on the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdown measures should include a thorough analysis that goes beyond health indicators. They should also assess the role played by key demographic indicators like age and family structures, co-residence patterns, and individual characteristics such as socio-economic status, ethnicity and mobility. During the current COVID-19 crisis, there is a high degree of uncertainty in decision-making processes. In addition to the ad-hoc consultancy required during any type of crisis, a more permanent monitoring system based on collected evidence of population health issues and beyond is needed. It should function in close collaboration with experts from research, policy, the economy and societal organisations to overcome silo-thinking. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the crucial importance of effectively tackling social and health inequalities in Europe.

Welfare systems are often perceived as key for migration decisions. Yet traditional international migration theories usually include this factor as rather static in nature and do not acknowledge the dynamic interaction with the individual life course. This is unfortunate, as the impact of macro-level circumstances on individual migration decisions may vary over a person's life, particularly for factors that are intrinsically connected to the life course, as is the case with the welfare system. In this study, we propose an innovative conceptual model which fruitfully combines insights from migration theories with principles of the life course approach. Using qualitative interview data from 36 European citizens born in Poland, Spain and the UK and residing in the Netherlands, we investigated how welfare systems are perceived and experienced at the individual level, and how these perceptions, knowledge and practices may enter migration decisions. Our study empirically underpins the main premise of the theoretical model that migration decisions and the factors shaping them should be explained as connected through the life course. The proposed conceptual model is suitable to explain the influence of welfare systems on migration decisions, but also that of other structural factors.

This study examines the association between having children born before the current partnership and women’s and men’s likelihood of transitioning from living apart together (LAT) to co-residing. LAT partnerships are common among individuals with pre-partnership children, but have so far been under-researched. Our study not only focuses on those in LAT relations, but also takes the different pathways to becoming a single parent into account. Event-history analysis was performed using waves 1-4 from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study. The results indicate that separated and widowed mothers were less likely to transition to co-residence with their LAT partner than childless women who had previously been in a co-residential union. Mothers who had previous out-of-union children were found to be even less likely to enter co-residence. Results were mostly similar for men and women. The only exception was the effect of being widowed with children; for men this resulted in higher chances of transitioning to co-residence with a new partner whereas for women the chances were lower. The findings suggest that individuals’ parenthood and union histories are associated with the development of their later partnerships, and that these patterns vary by gender. Given contemporary and future patterns of partnership separation, our study provides insights for better understanding how LAT relations develop for different sub-populations.

Background Migration plays an increasingly important role in shaping the demographic profiles of developed countries and receives ample attention in society at large as well as among policymakers. To understand how migration flows might evolve in the future, the QuantMig project set the goal of producing migration scenarios to support European migration policy. To do so, we need to make clear with what purpose scenarios are developed, how they are developed, and on which flows they focus. Other questions concern whether they are designed to describe the most likely future or a possible future, whether they are extrapolating trends observed in the past (assuming no fundamental changes in policies), or whether they are designed to describe desirable futures (migration as a panacea for ageing societies) or undesirable futures (massive inflow of immigration from developing countries). To produce the best possible migration scenarios, it is essential to get an overview of the literature. Migration scenarios have been used in a variety of future characterisations including forecasts, projections, and foresights. However, the term migration scenario is rarely well-defined or used consistently. Before developing a set of own scenarios, this document takes the necessary step of providing an overview of the existing literature and provide a definition and typology of migration scenarios. Based on this work, alternative ways of exploring the future of migration (for example in a vignette survey) will be discussed that lay out the bases for the extension of the work in the next deliverables of the work package. Methods This document looks at how migration scenarios are used in the literature presenting characterisations of societies’ futures. Relevant documents are systematically retrieved and assigned to one of six categories part of a pre-established typology. The typology rests on the focus (either migration or another aspect of societies influenced by migration

This paper aims to advance understandings of young Syrian men in forced displacement in relation to the frequently partial and ambiguous position of immigrant men in societal debates on gender- and partner roles, debates in which immigrant men frequently find themselves as static agents. Such debatesoften produce and reinforce one-sided accounts of husbands, partners or potential partners whose relationship’s attitudes, traditions and behaviours seem to abide by fixed blueprints. Earlier studies, however, emphasise nuanced and plural understandings of immigrant men and call attention to men as agentic individuals who actively negotiate emotional, economic and political hardships (Charsley, 2005; Gallo, 2006; Huizinga and van Hoven, 2020). Moreover, Hyman et al. (2008) and Shirpak et al. (2011) illustrate experiences of intimate partner relationships after migration to be both positive andnegative, depending on the agentic capacities of immigrant men to adapt to new circumstances.

Research on the union formation of the children of immigrants, the so-called second generation, focusses primarily on marriage and cohabitation. Even though dating relationships are often the first romantic relations and lay the foundation for more committed relationships, very little is known about dating among second-generation young adults. This is unfortunate because dating across different origin groups may point to changing or shifting group boundaries, that may only later be reflected in interethnic marriages. In this paper we aim to fill this gap in the literature by exploring the dating behavior of Turkish second-generation young adults in five European countries (the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, France) using the comparative TIES survey data. Our results show that it is common for the Turkish second generation to date a partner with a non-Turkish background. And, moreover, that it is important to distinguish between different types of intra-ethnic partnerships. Although only few parents are reported not to approve of the relationship of their child, a substantial part of the second generation seems reluctant to inform their parents about their dating life. With regard to the role of parents, it seems that their influence on the origin of dating partners is limited. In order to enhance our understanding of the meaning of (intergroup-) dating, its determinants and outcomes, future data may focus more on meeting places and the role of peers in a longitudinal way. We argue that dating is an important indicator for intergroup relations that deserves further attention in increasingly diverse societies.

There is much debate on the sustainability of (generous) welfare systems in the context of freedom of movement within the European Union (EU), often assuming that migrants’ welfare access is only regulated by national borders. In this chapter the authors analyse how and to what extent this assumption is accurate. They use large-scale population data from the Netherlands as a case study for analysing the migration patterns and labour market status of Polish and Bulgarian migrants after these countries joined the EU. Their findings do not support the political and scientific discourse that pressures on generous welfare systems increased due to the 2004 and 2007 EU enlargements. In practice, individuals’ welfare access in the context of free mobility of EU migrants is largely determined by national eligibility criteria tied to their lifecourse stage, labour market status and length of stay in the country. The authors’ findings point to the importance of including lifecourse characteristics for the study of migration and the welfare state.

In this demographic profile of Syrians in the Netherlands we provide an overview of their recent migration history and migrant characteristics. It is evidenced that the pre-2014 population of Syrian origin was relatively small and increased mainly due to an expanding second generation (children born in the Netherlands). After 2014, the settlement of almost 28,000 Syrian refugees in 2016 contributed most to the increase in the size of this population of migrant origin. Like in many other origin groups, we show for Syrians that men often arrived first, after which family reunification took place resulting in a young population structure. A year after arrival, most Syrians no longer live in reception centres but independently, with no concentration in urban areas. Integration into the labour force is shown to be a slow process; 30 months after being granted a residence permit a minority has a paid job.

Key Messages One of the most urgent policy issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe concerns the extent and ways in which demographics have determined different patterns of mortality between groups and regions, and whether and how the pandemic and its economic consequences will affect population dynamics in the future. Post-pandemic policy evaluations on the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdown measures should include a thorough analysis that goes beyond health indicators. They should also assess the role played by key demographic indicators like age and family structures, co-residence patterns, and individual characteristics such as socio-economic status, ethnicity and mobility. During the current COVID-19 crisis, there is a high degree of uncertainty in decision-making processes. In addition to the ad-hoc consultancy required during any type of crisis, a more permanent monitoring system based on collected evidence of population health issues and beyond is needed. It should function in close collaboration with experts from research, policy, the economy and societal organisations to overcome silo-thinking. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the crucial importance of effectively tackling social and health inequalities in Europe.

Foreign and native populations differ in terms of breast cancer outcomes. Studies rarely distinguish between premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer, although the risk profile is different; nor between migrants of the first and second generation (FG and SG), which is crucial to examine genetic and environmental influences on breast cancer. This research fills these gaps by investigating patterns in breast cancer incidence and survival in different migrant groups by menopausal and migrant generational status, taking various risk factors into account. To this end, individually linked data from the 2001 census, the Belgian Cancer Registry and the Crossroads Bank for Social Security are used. Age‐standardised incidence rates and incidence rate ratios are calculated by migrant background group, stratified according to ages 30–50 (premenopausal) and 50–70 (postmenopausal). Incidence rate ratios are examined with and without taking reproductive factors and socioeconomic position (SEP) into account. Relative survival percentages and relative excess risks of dying among premenopausal and postmenopausal patients are computed with and without controlling for the stage at diagnosis and SEP. Premenopausal breast cancer is further examined by migrant generational status. Breast cancer incidence is lower among non‐European migrants compared to Belgians. Keeping SEP and known risk factors constant reduces much, but not all of the observed discrepancies. A risk convergence between SG migrants and Belgians for the development of premenopausal breast cancer is observed. Premenopausal breast cancer survival is worse among Moroccan patients due to a higher stage at diagnosis. This disadvantage is concentrated in the FG.

In this study, we add to the literature by investigating the role of welfare states in intra‐European migration decisions between 25 countries (2003‐2008). Distinguishing between three welfare programmes (unemployment, family and old‐age benefits) we tested whether social expenditure on each of these arrangements particularly influenced locational choices of individuals within the age groups covered by the respective welfare policy. Findings from a conditional logit model showed a positive impact of spending on family benefits on the locational choices of young adults moving together with children, and of spending on old‐age benefits on the locational choices of individuals close to or above retirement age. In contrast, a negative impact of unemployment spending was found on locational choices in general, and those of working‐age adults in particular. Our results highlight the importance of further disentangling the often‐used general welfare spending measure when studying the link between welfare and migration.

Welfare systems are often perceived as key for migration decisions. Yet traditional international migration theories usually include this factor as rather static in nature and do not acknowledge the dynamic interaction with the individual life course. This is unfortunate, as the impact of macro-level circumstances on individual migration decisions may vary over a person's life, particularly for factors that are intrinsically connected to the life course, as is the case with the welfare system. In this study, we propose an innovative conceptual model which fruitfully combines insights from migration theories with principles of the life course approach. Using qualitative interview data from 36 European citizens born in Poland, Spain and the UK and residing in the Netherlands, we investigated how welfare systems are perceived and experienced at the individual level, and how these perceptions, knowledge and practices may enter migration decisions. Our study empirically underpins the main premise of the theoretical model that migration decisions and the factors shaping them should be explained as connected through the life course. The proposed conceptual model is suitable to explain the influence of welfare systems on migration decisions, but also that of other structural factors.

Trekt de goedkope en goede kinderopvang een Marokkaans of Italiaans gezin naar Scandinavië? Welnee. Groot Europees onderzoek toont robuust aan: de aanzuigende werking op immigranten van welvaartsstaten in West-Europa is een mythe.

Research on majority populations throughout Europe showed strong attachment and exchange of support between parents and their adult children. Studies on migrant families are limited yet needed in light of the increasing share of older people of migrant origin in European populations. One of the main sources of intergenerational support and care is via coresidence of (older) parents and their adult children. In this paper, we first analyse whether co-residence of adult children with their parents differs between migrants and non-migrants across Europe. Second, we assess the potentially differential effect of resources and socio-demographic factors among the migrant and non-migrant population as well as migrant-specific factors (migrant generation and region of origin). Data on five countries, with different migration patterns and histories, covered in the first wave of the Generation and Gender Survey are used (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands). Results show that levels of adult child–parent co-residence do not vary significantly by migrant status but do differ across Europe. Furthermore, we find that socio-demographic factors are important and have a similar association with parent–child coresidence for migrants and non-migrants. Our study does, however, suggest differences in co-residence by region of origin and migrant generation.

This paper studies residential segregation in the Amsterdam Metropolitan Area and makes three contributions to the recent debates on segregation. First, both ethnic and socio‐economic segregation are studied by comparing isolation index scores for both individual indicators and their interactions. Second, neighbourhoods are defined as scalable individualised units, which allows for comparisons across spatial scales. Third, the paper adopts a longitudinal approach by covering three different time points, which enables us to get a grip on segregation trends. The results indicate that there are notable differences in segregation levels and trends between the applied segregation indicators. Ethnic segregation remained largely stable over the 2003–14 period, whereas the indicators of socio‐economic segregation have slightly changed, but all in different directions. Only for tertiary education segregation has increased over the entire period. The Dutch welfare system, the well‐dispersed and socially‐mixed social housing sector and gentrification help to explain these developments.

Migratiebeleid zou moeten worden gebaseerd op een rationele afweging van argumenten, maar in debatten over migratie spelen emoties vaak een belangrijke rol. Dat maakt de relatie tussen wetenschap en beleid gecompliceerd. In deze bij-drage bespreken we de spanningsvelden en dilem-ma’s die uitwisseling tussen wetenschap en beleid bepalen en soms bemoeilijken. We benadrukken het belang om tot uitwisseling te komen, vooral wanneer het gaat om migratie waar het debat in hoge mate gepolariseerd is.

Trekt de goedkope en goede kinderopvang een Marokkaans of Italiaans gezin naar Scandinavië? Welnee. Groot Europees onderzoek toont robuust aan: de aanzuigende werking op immigranten van welvaartsstaten in West-Europa is een mythe.