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PR, IFPRI3; CRP2; ISI; D Transforming Agriculture, DSGD; EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; D Transforming Agriculture, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Demographic transition due to population aging is an emerging trend throughout the developing world, and it is especially acute in China, which has undergone demographic transition more rapidly than have most industrial economies. This paper quantifies the distributional effects in the context of demographic transition using an integrated recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model with top-down behavioral microsimulation. The results of the poverty and inequality index indicate that population aging has a negative impact on the reduction of poverty while its impact is positive with regard to equality. In addition, elderly rural households are experiencing the most serious poverty, and their inequality problems compared with other household groups and within group inequality worsens with demographic transition. These findings not only advance the previous literature but also deserve particular attention from Chinese policy makers.

PR, IFPRI3, DSGD, China has recently been spending more than 10 % of total annual government expenditures on public infrastructure. In late 2008, when the global financial crisis occurred, a four trillion yuan package was put into action to stimulate domestic economic growth. Public infrastructure investment in 2009 and 2010 was respectively 60 % and 80 % higher than in 2008. China has managed to sustain rapid economic growth in recent years. However, disparities between rich and poor have risen, and China has become one of the most unequal countries in the world. Despite high overall economic growth rates, the Chinese government is becoming increasingly concerned about high and rising income inequality. Reducing poverty and inequality through inclusive growth has become a major mandate of development policy. President Hu Jintao formally endorsed inclusive growth as a national development strategy at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in November, 2009.

Non-PR, IFPRI5, DSGD, 36 pages

Non-PR, IFPRI5, DSGD