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Summary findings are presented from an investigation to improve understanding of the environmental risks associated with developing an unconventional-hydrocarbons industry in the UK. The EQUIPT4RISK project, funded by UK Research Councils, focused on investigations around Preston New Road (PNR), Fylde, Lancashire, and Kirby Misperton Site A (KMA), North Yorkshire, where operator licences to explore for shale gas by hydraulic fracturing (HF) were issued in 2016, although exploration only took place at PNR. EQUIPT4RISK considered atmospheric (greenhouse gases, air quality), water (groundwater quality) and solid-earth (seismicity) compartments to characterise and model local conditions and environmental responses to HF activities. Risk assessment was based on the source-pathway-receptor approach. Baseline monitoring of air around the two sites characterised the variability with meteorological conditions, and isotopic signatures were able to discriminate biogenic methane (cattle) from thermogenic (natural-gas) sources. Monitoring of a post-HF nitrogen-lift (well-cleaning) operation at PNR detected the release of atmospheric emissions of methane (4.2 ± 1.4 t CH4). Groundwater monitoring around KMA identified high baseline methane concentrations and detected ethane and propane at some locations. Dissolved methane was inferred from stable-isotopic evidence as overwhelmingly of biogenic origin. Groundwater-quality monitoring around PNR found no evidence of HF-induced impacts. Two approaches for modelling induced seismicity and associated seismic risk were developed using observations of seismicity and operational parameters from PNR in 2018 and 2019. Novel methodologies developed for monitoring include use of machine learning to identify fugitive atmospheric methane, Bayesian statistics to assess changes to groundwater quality, a seismicity forecasting model seeded by the HF-fluid injection rate and high-resolution monitoring of soil-gas methane. The project developed a ris

Effective management of groundwater resources during drought is essential. How is groundwater currently managed during droughts, and in the face of environmental change, what should be the future priorities? Four themes are explored, from the perspective of groundwater management in England (UK): (1) integration of drought definitions; (2) enhanced fundamental monitoring; (3) integrated modelling of groundwater in the water cycle; and (4) better information sharing. Whilst these themes are considered in the context of England, globally, they are relevant wherever groundwater is affected by drought.

Increased fluxes of reactive nitrogen (Nr), often associated with N fertilizer use in agriculture, have resulted in negative environmental consequences, including eutrophication, which cost billions of dollars per year globally. To address this, best management practices (BMPs) to reduce Nr loading to the environment have been introduced in many locations. However, improvements in water quality associated with BMP implementation have not always been realised over expected timescales. There is a now a significant body of scientific evidence showing that the dynamics of legacy Nr storage and associated time lags invalidate the assumptions of many models used by policymakers for decision making regarding Nr BMPs. Building on this evidence, we believe that the concepts of legacy Nr storage dynamics and time lags need to be included in these models. We believe the biogeochemical research community could play a more proactive role in advocating for this change through both awareness raising and direct collaboration with policymakers to develop improved datasets and models. We anticipate that this will result in more realistic expectations of timescales for water quality improvements associated with BMPs. Given the need for multi-nutrient policy responses to tackle challenges such as eutrophication, integration of N stores will have the further benefit of aligning both researchers and policymakers in the N community with the phosphorus and carbon communities, where estimation of stores is more widespread. Ultimately, we anticipate that integrating legacy Nr storage dynamics and time lags into policy frameworks will better meet the needs of human and environmental health.

Increased fluxes of reactive nitrogen (Nr), often associated with N fertilizer use in agriculture, have resulted in negative environmental consequences, including eutrophication, which cost billions of dollars per year globally. To address this, best management practices (BMPs) to reduce Nr loading to the environment have been introduced in many locations. However, improvements in water quality associated with BMP implementation have not always been realised over expected timescales. There is a now a significant body of scientific evidence showing that the dynamics of legacy Nr storage and associated time lags invalidate the assumptions of many models used by policymakers for decision making regarding Nr BMPs. Building on this evidence, we believe that the concepts of legacy Nr storage dynamics and time lags need to be included in these models. We believe the biogeochemical research community could play a more proactive role in advocating for this change through both awareness raising and direct collaboration with policymakers to develop improved datasets and models. We anticipate that this will result in more realistic expectations of timescales for water quality improvements associated with BMPs. Given the need for multi-nutrient policy responses to tackle challenges such as eutrophication, integration of N stores will have the further benefit of aligning both researchers and policymakers in the N community with the phosphorus and carbon communities, where estimation of stores is more widespread. Ultimately, we anticipate that integrating legacy Nr storage dynamics and time lags into policy frameworks will better meet the needs of human and environmental health.

Effective management of groundwater resources during drought is essential. How is groundwater currently managed during droughts, and in the face of environmental change, what should be the future priorities? Four themes are explored, from the perspective of groundwater management in England (UK): (1) integration of drought definitions; (2) enhanced fundamental monitoring; (3) integrated modelling of groundwater in the water cycle; and (4) better information sharing. Whilst these themes are considered in the context of England, globally, they are relevant wherever groundwater is affected by drought.

This report presents the results and interpretation for Phase 5 of an integrated environmental monitoring programme that is being undertaken around two proposed shale gas sites in England – Preston New Road, Lancashire and Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire. The report should be read in conjunction with previous reports freely available through the project website1 . These provide additional background to the project, presentation of earlier results and the rationale for establishment of the different elements of the monitoring programme.

Environmental monitoring plays a key role in risk assessment and management of industrial operations where there is the potential for the release of contaminants to the environment (i.e. air and water) or for structural damage (i.e. seismicity). The shale-gas industry is one such industry. It is also new to the UK and so specific environmental regulation and other controls have been introduced only recently. Associated with this is a need to carry out monitoring to demonstrate that the management measures to minimise the risk to the environment are being effective. While much of the monitoring required is common to other industries and potentially polluting activities, there are a number of requirements specific to shale gas and to what is a new and undeveloped industry. This report presents recommendations for environmental monitoring associated with shale-gas activities and in particular the monitoring required to inform risk assessment and establish the pre-existing environmental conditions at a site and surrounding area. This baseline monitoring is essential to provide robust data and criteria for detecting any future adverse environmental changes caused by the shale-gas operations. Monitoring is therefore required throughout the lifecycle of a shale gas operation. During this lifecycle, the objectives of the monitoring will change, from baseline characterisation to operational and post-operational monitoring. Monitoring requirements will also change. This report focusses on good practice in baseline monitoring and places it in the context of the longer-term environmental monitoring programme, recognising the need to transition from the baseline condition and to establish criteria for detecting any changes within the regulatory framework. The core suite of environmental monitoring activities currently required to support regulatory compliance, i.e. meet environmental and other permit conditions, encompasses monitoring of seismicity, water quality (groundwater an

This report presents the results and interpretation for Phase 5 of an integrated environmental monitoring programme that is being undertaken around two proposed shale gas sites in England – Preston New Road, Lancashire and Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire. The report should be read in conjunction with previous reports freely available through the project website1 . These provide additional background to the project, presentation of earlier results and the rationale for establishment of the different elements of the monitoring programme.

Environmental monitoring plays a key role in risk assessment and management of industrial operations where there is the potential for the release of contaminants to the environment (i.e. air and water) or for structural damage (i.e. seismicity). The shale-gas industry is one such industry. It is also new to the UK and so specific environmental regulation and other controls have been introduced only recently. Associated with this is a need to carry out monitoring to demonstrate that the management measures to minimise the risk to the environment are being effective. While much of the monitoring required is common to other industries and potentially polluting activities, there are a number of requirements specific to shale gas and to what is a new and undeveloped industry. This report presents recommendations for environmental monitoring associated with shale-gas activities and in particular the monitoring required to inform risk assessment and establish the pre-existing environmental conditions at a site and surrounding area. This baseline monitoring is essential to provide robust data and criteria for detecting any future adverse environmental changes caused by the shale-gas operations. Monitoring is therefore required throughout the lifecycle of a shale gas operation. During this lifecycle, the objectives of the monitoring will change, from baseline characterisation to operational and post-operational monitoring. Monitoring requirements will also change. This report focusses on good practice in baseline monitoring and places it in the context of the longer-term environmental monitoring programme, recognising the need to transition from the baseline condition and to establish criteria for detecting any changes within the regulatory framework. The core suite of environmental monitoring activities currently required to support regulatory compliance, i.e. meet environmental and other permit conditions, encompasses monitoring of seismicity, water quality (groundwater an

This report describes the results of activities carried out as part of the Environmental Monitoring Project (EMP) led by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in areas around two shale gas sites in England – Kirby Misperton (Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire) and Preston New Road (Fylde, Lancashire). It focuses on the monitoring undertaken during the period April 2018–March 2019 but also considers this in the context of earlier monitoring results that have been covered in reports for earlier phases of the project (Phases I–IV) 2 . The EMP project is a multi-partner project involving BGS together with Public Health England (PHE), University of Birmingham, University of Bristol, University of Manchester, Royal Holloway University of London (RHUL) and University of York. The work has been enabled by funding from a combination of the BGS National Capability programme, a grant awarded by the UK Government’s Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and additional benefit-in-kind contributions from all partners. The project comprises the comprehensive monitoring of different environment compartments and properties at and around the two shale-gas sites. The component parts of the EMP are all of significance when considering environmental and human health risks associated with shale gas development. Included are seismicity, ground motion, water (groundwater and surface water), soil gas, greenhouse gases, air quality, and radon. The monitoring started before hydraulic fracturing had taken place at the two locations, and so the results obtained before the initiation of operations at the shale-gas sites represent baseline conditions. It is important to characterise adequately the baseline conditions so that any future changes caused by shale gas operations, including hydraulic fracturing, can be identified. This is also the case for any other new activities that may impact those compartments of the environment being monitored as part of the project. In the per

The UK shale gas industry might see significant growth in the near future, with many energy companies already having gained approval and others in the stages of seeking approval for exploration. Exploratory boreholes have been in place in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire, and the Fylde Basin, Lancashire, since 2013 and 2010 respectively. Since then, several other sites around the UK have been earmarked for future exploration. The current absence of producing shale gas wells within the UK means it is too early to assess any actual impact of these operations at the local, regional and national scale. However, international analogues may provide some indications based on areas elsewhere in the world where a shale gas industry is more developed (e.g. the Marcellus Shale, USA) albeit with obvious limitations due to differences in geology and setting. While regulation and compliance of shale gas operations varies between countries, the process and method of extraction and the environmental risks are comparable. The general requirements for water, drilling mud/fluids, hydraulic fracturing fluids (“frac fluids”) and the design of wells and well pads can all be extracted from an already mature international experience. However, the requirements in the UK will be modified by the regulatory requirements and restrictions that exist. There are ongoing discussions within the UK to determine whether shale gas is beneficial, economically viable and environmentally safe. In this report, the impact on land use, groundwater quality and water resources of one well in a selection of approved Petroleum Exploration and Development Licence (PEDL) areas will be considered, followed by an estimation of the cumulative impacts that may result from multiple extraction sites within these areas. The exercise will depend on ranges of input parameters informed by international analogues applied in a UK geo-environmental setting. To recognise the variability in parameters and uncertainty in UK

This paper describes a new screening method for assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution from hydrocarbon exploitation in the subsurface. The method can be used for various hydrocarbon energy sources, including conventional oil and gas, shale gas and oil, coal bed methane and underground coal gasification. Intrinsic vulnerability of potential receptors is assessed at any particular location by identifying possible geological pathways for contaminant transport. This is followed by an assessment of specific vulnerability which takes into account the nature of the subsurface hydrocarbon activity and driving heads. A confidence rating is attached to each parameter in the assessment to provide an indication of the confidence in the screening. Risk categories and associated confidence ratings are designed to aid in environmental decision making, regulation and management, highlighting where additional information is required. The method is demonstrated for conventional gas and proposed shale gas operations in northern England but can be adapted for use in any geological or hydrogeological setting and for other subsurface activities.

This report describes the results of activities carried out as part of the Environmental Monitoring Project (EMP) led by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in areas around two shale gas sites in England – Kirby Misperton (Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire) and Preston New Road (Fylde, Lancashire). It focuses on the monitoring undertaken during the period April 2018–March 2019 but also considers this in the context of earlier monitoring results that have been covered in reports for earlier phases of the project (Phases I–IV) 2 . The EMP project is a multi-partner project involving BGS together with Public Health England (PHE), University of Birmingham, University of Bristol, University of Manchester, Royal Holloway University of London (RHUL) and University of York. The work has been enabled by funding from a combination of the BGS National Capability programme, a grant awarded by the UK Government’s Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and additional benefit-in-kind contributions from all partners. The project comprises the comprehensive monitoring of different environment compartments and properties at and around the two shale-gas sites. The component parts of the EMP are all of significance when considering environmental and human health risks associated with shale gas development. Included are seismicity, ground motion, water (groundwater and surface water), soil gas, greenhouse gases, air quality, and radon. The monitoring started before hydraulic fracturing had taken place at the two locations, and so the results obtained before the initiation of operations at the shale-gas sites represent baseline conditions. It is important to characterise adequately the baseline conditions so that any future changes caused by shale gas operations, including hydraulic fracturing, can be identified. This is also the case for any other new activities that may impact those compartments of the environment being monitored as part of the project. In the per

The UK shale gas industry might see significant growth in the near future, with many energy companies already having gained approval and others in the stages of seeking approval for exploration. Exploratory boreholes have been in place in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire, and the Fylde Basin, Lancashire, since 2013 and 2010 respectively. Since then, several other sites around the UK have been earmarked for future exploration. The current absence of producing shale gas wells within the UK means it is too early to assess any actual impact of these operations at the local, regional and national scale. However, international analogues may provide some indications based on areas elsewhere in the world where a shale gas industry is more developed (e.g. the Marcellus Shale, USA) albeit with obvious limitations due to differences in geology and setting. While regulation and compliance of shale gas operations varies between countries, the process and method of extraction and the environmental risks are comparable. The general requirements for water, drilling mud/fluids, hydraulic fracturing fluids (“frac fluids”) and the design of wells and well pads can all be extracted from an already mature international experience. However, the requirements in the UK will be modified by the regulatory requirements and restrictions that exist. There are ongoing discussions within the UK to determine whether shale gas is beneficial, economically viable and environmentally safe. In this report, the impact on land use, groundwater quality and water resources of one well in a selection of approved Petroleum Exploration and Development Licence (PEDL) areas will be considered, followed by an estimation of the cumulative impacts that may result from multiple extraction sites within these areas. The exercise will depend on ranges of input parameters informed by international analogues applied in a UK geo-environmental setting. To recognise the variability in parameters and uncertainty in UK

This paper describes a new screening method for assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution from hydrocarbon exploitation in the subsurface. The method can be used for various hydrocarbon energy sources, including conventional oil and gas, shale gas and oil, coal bed methane and underground coal gasification. Intrinsic vulnerability of potential receptors is assessed at any particular location by identifying possible geological pathways for contaminant transport. This is followed by an assessment of specific vulnerability which takes into account the nature of the subsurface hydrocarbon activity and driving heads. A confidence rating is attached to each parameter in the assessment to provide an indication of the confidence in the screening. Risk categories and associated confidence ratings are designed to aid in environmental decision making, regulation and management, highlighting where additional information is required. The method is demonstrated for conventional gas and proposed shale gas operations in northern England but can be adapted for use in any geological or hydrogeological setting and for other subsurface activities.

This report details a reconnaissance investigation carried out between 2016 and 2018 from a British Geological Survey (BGS)–Environment Agency (EA) collaboration on the impacts of abandoned hydrocarbon (HC) wells on groundwater quality in England. The investigation involved collation of a database of HC wells that were identified from records provided by DECC (Department of Energy & Climate Change; now BEIS: Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy) as being abandoned (as opposed to operational or unspecified), categorising according to factors such as oil or gas designation, depth of HC resource, time since abandonment, productive life, absence of active wells nearby, and occurrence and type of overlying aquifer(s). From this categorisation, a subset of 27 sites were shortlisted for further investigation and fact sheets were produced for each outlining regional geology, hydrogeology and potential groundwater monitoring points in the area. Using these factsheets, four study areas were assessed as being most suitable for further field investigation. These comprised two gas fields: Nooks Farm (Staffordshire), and Ashdown (Sussex), and two oil fields: Hemswell (Lincolnshire) and Lomer (Hampshire). Groundwater sampling campaigns were conducted in 2016–2017 in the four study areas, with potential sampling points identified within a 5 km buffer zone around (downstream of) the HC well or HC field. In several areas, the number of sampling points was very limited as locations of HC wells do not necessarily have any relationship with locations of overlying aquifers. In others, large numbers of sites were deemed unsuitable for sampling, for reasons including disuse, decommissioning, safety or lack of access. This made representative sampling of groundwater a severe challenge. Suitable sites from the four study areas were sampled twice during the project, with a total of 48 groundwater samples being collected over the two campaigns. Results from both sampling rounds have shown th

High-quality environmental baseline monitoring data are being collected in areas around two proposed shale gas sites near Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire and Little Plumpton Lancashire. Monitoring has now been on-going for over two years and has produced an internationally unique data set that will allow any future changes that arise from industrial activities at either or both shale gas sites to be detected and characterised, as well as providing a significant resource for future research. The monitoring includes: water quality, air quality, seismicity, ground motion, soil gas and radon in air. This report presents the results of monitoring in the Vale of Pickering, within which the Kirby Misperton shale gas site (KM8) is located, for the period April 2017–March 2018. It also includes the results of atmospheric composition measurements made near the Little Plumpton (Preston New Road) site. Earlier results and other monitoring in Lancashire are reported elsewhere and can be accessed from the British Geological Survey’s website1. As well as providing valuable insight into the importance of establishing robust information on the conditions before shale gas operations start, it also highlights the challenges in establishing effective monitoring and producing reliable results. For groundwater, this includes the importance of: developing and flushing newly installed boreholes; the spatial variation in water quality and; the selection of monitoring and measuring techniques. Having two years of data has allowed comparison between years. The preliminary analysis reported here has shown that sample populations were not significantly different between the two years. This is directly relevant to the duration of monitoring required by legislation, with the evidence supporting a baseline monitoring period of at least 12 months before any site operations start. The seismic monitoring network installed for measuring background seismicity has operated successfully throughout the r

This report is the product of a joint British Geological Survey (BGS) – Environment Agency (EA) study to assess the vulnerability of groundwater in relation to deep sub-surface hydrocarbon activity (3D Groundwater Vulnerability) in England. Since the late 1980s, groundwater protection in England has benefited from a series of national groundwater vulnerability maps. These are now routinely used to inform decisions around allowing and/or managing activities on, or just below, the land surface that are potentially polluting. The recent increased interest in onshore exploration and exploitation of the deeper subsurface and concerns about the risk to groundwater has highlighted the fact that the existing groundwater vulnerability assessment methodology focuses solely on risks from hazards that are above the groundwater that requires protection. Plans to exploit the deep sub-surface, in particular for shale gas using hydraulic fracturing, have attracted considerable public interest and concerns over the potential for these activities to cause pollution of groundwater. It is therefore essential that in considering any proposals for use of the deep sub-surface, tools and methods for assessing groundwater vulnerability and risk are fit for purpose. Hence, the aim of this project was to develop a new vulnerability method that could address the potential risks to groundwater from activities below, or at similar depths to, groundwater systems (aquifers) that are currently used or have the potential to be used in the future. These systems are those requiring protection under current EU and UK legislation. To this end we present a methodology along with five different hydrocarbon activity case study examples from across England. The report describes how information can be compiled, interpreted and presented in order to assess the vulnerability of groundwater and an indication of the risks associated with a hydrocarbon development activity at a site. The outputs are designed for

This report presents the collated preliminary results from the British Geological Survey (BGS) led project Science-based environmental baseline monitoring associated with shale gas development in the Fylde, Lancashire. The project has been funded by a combination of BGS National Capability funding, in-kind contributions from project partners and a grant awarded by the Department of Business Energy and Investment Strategy (BEIS). It complements an on-going project, in which similar activities are being carried out, in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire. Further information on the projects can be found on the BGS website: www.bgs.ac.uk. The project has initiated a wide-ranging environmental baseline monitoring programme that includes water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases and air quality), soil gas and radon in air (indoors and outdoors). The motivation behind the project(s) was to establish independent monitoring in the area around the proposed shale gas hydraulic fracturing sites in the Fylde, Lancashire (Cuadrilla Resources Ltd) before any shale gas operations take place. As part of the project, instrumentation has been deployed to measure, in real-time or near real-time, a range of environmental variables (water quality, seismicity, atmospheric composition). These data are being displayed on the project’s web site (www.bgs.ac.uk/lancashire). Additional survey, sampling and monitoring has also been carried out through a co-ordinated programme of fieldwork and laboratory analysis, which has included installation of new monitoring infrastructure, to allow compilation of one of the most comprehensive environmental datasets in the UK. The monitoring programme is continuing. However, there are already some very important findings emerging from the limited datasets which should be taken into account when developing future monitoring strategy, policy and regulation. The information is not onl

This report details a reconnaissance investigation carried out between 2016 and 2018 from a British Geological Survey (BGS)–Environment Agency (EA) collaboration on the impacts of abandoned hydrocarbon (HC) wells on groundwater quality in England. The investigation involved collation of a database of HC wells that were identified from records provided by DECC (Department of Energy & Climate Change; now BEIS: Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy) as being abandoned (as opposed to operational or unspecified), categorising according to factors such as oil or gas designation, depth of HC resource, time since abandonment, productive life, absence of active wells nearby, and occurrence and type of overlying aquifer(s). From this categorisation, a subset of 27 sites were shortlisted for further investigation and fact sheets were produced for each outlining regional geology, hydrogeology and potential groundwater monitoring points in the area. Using these factsheets, four study areas were assessed as being most suitable for further field investigation. These comprised two gas fields: Nooks Farm (Staffordshire), and Ashdown (Sussex), and two oil fields: Hemswell (Lincolnshire) and Lomer (Hampshire). Groundwater sampling campaigns were conducted in 2016–2017 in the four study areas, with potential sampling points identified within a 5 km buffer zone around (downstream of) the HC well or HC field. In several areas, the number of sampling points was very limited as locations of HC wells do not necessarily have any relationship with locations of overlying aquifers. In others, large numbers of sites were deemed unsuitable for sampling, for reasons including disuse, decommissioning, safety or lack of access. This made representative sampling of groundwater a severe challenge. Suitable sites from the four study areas were sampled twice during the project, with a total of 48 groundwater samples being collected over the two campaigns. Results from both sampling rounds have shown th

High-quality environmental baseline monitoring data are being collected in areas around two proposed shale gas sites near Kirby Misperton, North Yorkshire and Little Plumpton Lancashire. Monitoring has now been on-going for over two years and has produced an internationally unique data set that will allow any future changes that arise from industrial activities at either or both shale gas sites to be detected and characterised, as well as providing a significant resource for future research. The monitoring includes: water quality, air quality, seismicity, ground motion, soil gas and radon in air. This report presents the results of monitoring in the Vale of Pickering, within which the Kirby Misperton shale gas site (KM8) is located, for the period April 2017–March 2018. It also includes the results of atmospheric composition measurements made near the Little Plumpton (Preston New Road) site. Earlier results and other monitoring in Lancashire are reported elsewhere and can be accessed from the British Geological Survey’s website1. As well as providing valuable insight into the importance of establishing robust information on the conditions before shale gas operations start, it also highlights the challenges in establishing effective monitoring and producing reliable results. For groundwater, this includes the importance of: developing and flushing newly installed boreholes; the spatial variation in water quality and; the selection of monitoring and measuring techniques. Having two years of data has allowed comparison between years. The preliminary analysis reported here has shown that sample populations were not significantly different between the two years. This is directly relevant to the duration of monitoring required by legislation, with the evidence supporting a baseline monitoring period of at least 12 months before any site operations start. The seismic monitoring network installed for measuring background seismicity has operated successfully throughout the r

This report is the product of a joint British Geological Survey (BGS) – Environment Agency (EA) study to assess the vulnerability of groundwater in relation to deep sub-surface hydrocarbon activity (3D Groundwater Vulnerability) in England. Since the late 1980s, groundwater protection in England has benefited from a series of national groundwater vulnerability maps. These are now routinely used to inform decisions around allowing and/or managing activities on, or just below, the land surface that are potentially polluting. The recent increased interest in onshore exploration and exploitation of the deeper subsurface and concerns about the risk to groundwater has highlighted the fact that the existing groundwater vulnerability assessment methodology focuses solely on risks from hazards that are above the groundwater that requires protection. Plans to exploit the deep sub-surface, in particular for shale gas using hydraulic fracturing, have attracted considerable public interest and concerns over the potential for these activities to cause pollution of groundwater. It is therefore essential that in considering any proposals for use of the deep sub-surface, tools and methods for assessing groundwater vulnerability and risk are fit for purpose. Hence, the aim of this project was to develop a new vulnerability method that could address the potential risks to groundwater from activities below, or at similar depths to, groundwater systems (aquifers) that are currently used or have the potential to be used in the future. These systems are those requiring protection under current EU and UK legislation. To this end we present a methodology along with five different hydrocarbon activity case study examples from across England. The report describes how information can be compiled, interpreted and presented in order to assess the vulnerability of groundwater and an indication of the risks associated with a hydrocarbon development activity at a site. The outputs are designed for

This report presents the collated preliminary results from the British Geological Survey (BGS) led project Science-based environmental baseline monitoring associated with shale gas development in the Fylde, Lancashire. The project has been funded by a combination of BGS National Capability funding, in-kind contributions from project partners and a grant awarded by the Department of Business Energy and Investment Strategy (BEIS). It complements an on-going project, in which similar activities are being carried out, in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire. Further information on the projects can be found on the BGS website: www.bgs.ac.uk. The project has initiated a wide-ranging environmental baseline monitoring programme that includes water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases and air quality), soil gas and radon in air (indoors and outdoors). The motivation behind the project(s) was to establish independent monitoring in the area around the proposed shale gas hydraulic fracturing sites in the Fylde, Lancashire (Cuadrilla Resources Ltd) before any shale gas operations take place. As part of the project, instrumentation has been deployed to measure, in real-time or near real-time, a range of environmental variables (water quality, seismicity, atmospheric composition). These data are being displayed on the project’s web site (www.bgs.ac.uk/lancashire). Additional survey, sampling and monitoring has also been carried out through a co-ordinated programme of fieldwork and laboratory analysis, which has included installation of new monitoring infrastructure, to allow compilation of one of the most comprehensive environmental datasets in the UK. The monitoring programme is continuing. However, there are already some very important findings emerging from the limited datasets which should be taken into account when developing future monitoring strategy, policy and regulation. The information is not onl

Interest in dissolved methane (CH4) concentrations in aquifers in England, Scotland and Wales (‘Great Britain’ or GB) has grown concurrently with interest in the exploitation of unconventional gas sources (UGS). Experience, mainly from North America, has shown the importance of a pre-production baseline against which changes possibly due to UGS extraction can be compared. The British Geological Survey, aided by water utilities, private users and regulators, has compiled a unique dataset for CH4 in groundwaters of GB. This focuses principally on areas where UGS exploration is considered more likely, as indicated by the underlying geology. All the main water supply aquifers (Principal aquifers) were targeted, plus Secondary aquifers where locally important. The average dissolved CH4 concentration across GB in the aquifers sampled was 45 μg/l. Out of a total of 343 sites, 96% showed dissolved CH4 concentrations b100 μg/l, 80% b10 μg/l, and 43% b 1 μg/l. No site had a CH4 concentration above the US Department of the Interior suggested risk action level of 10,000 μg/l. While most sites were sampled only once, a sub set was monitored quarterly to determine the magnitude of seasonal or other variations. Generally these variations were minor, with 84% of sites showing variations within the range 0.5–37 μg/l, but some aquifers where the porosity was primarily fracture-related showed larger changes (0.5–264 μg/l). This may have been due to the nature of sampling at these sites which, unlike the others, did not have installed pumps. Since the regulatory compliance monitoring attending UGS operations will include the measurement of parameters such as dissolved CH4, it is essential that sampling methods are tested to ensure that reliable and comparable datasets can be obtained.

Global-scale nitrogen budgets developed to quantify anthropogenic impacts on the nitrogen cycle do not explicitly consider nitrate stored in the vadose zone. Here we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate that should be considered in future budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of groundwater depth and nitrate leaching for 1900–2000, we quantify the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone as 605–1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using basin-scale and national-scale estimates and observed groundwater nitrate data. Nitrate storage per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Europe where there are thick vadose zones and extensive historical agriculture. In these areas, long travel times in the vadose zone may delay the impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate.

This report is submitted in compliance with the conditions set out in the grant awarded to the British Geological Survey (BGS), for the period April 2016 – March 2017, to support the jointly-funded project "Science-based environmental baseline monitoring". It presents the results of monitoring and/or measurement and preliminary interpretation of these data to characterise the baseline environmental conditions in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire and for air quality, the Fylde in Lancashire ahead of any shale gas development. The two areas where the monitoring is taking place have seen, during the project, planning applications approved for the exploration for shale gas and hydraulic fracturing. It is widely recognised that there is a need for good environmental baseline data and establishment of effective monitoring protocols ahead of any shale gas/oil development. This monitoring will enable future changes that may occur as a result of industrial activity to be identified and differentiated from other natural and man-made changes that are influencing the baseline. Continued monitoring will then enable any deviations from the baseline, should they occur, to be identified and investigated independently to determine the possible causes, sources and significance to the environment and public health. The absence of such data in the United States has undermined public confidence, led to major controversy and inability to identify and effectively deal with impact/contamination where it has occurred. A key aim of this work is to avoid a similar situation and the independent monitoring being carried out as part of this project provides an opportunity to develop robust environmental baseline for the two study areas and monitoring procedures, and share experience that is applicable to the wider UK situation. This work is internationally unique and comprises an inter-disciplinary researcher-led programme that is developing, testing and implementing monitoring methodologie

Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets developed to quantify anthropogenic impacts on the nitrogen cycle do not explicitly consider nitrate stored in the vadose zone. Here we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of groundwater depth and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using basin and national scale estimates and observed groundwater nitrate data. Nitrate storage per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Europe where there are thick vadose zones and extensive historical agriculture. In these areas long travel times in the vadose zone may delay the impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate.

Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets developed to quantify anthropogenic impacts on the nitrogen cycle do not explicitly consider nitrate stored in the vadose zone. Here we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of groundwater depth and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using basin and national scale estimates and observed groundwater nitrate data. Nitrate storage per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Europe where there are thick vadose zones and extensive historical agriculture. In these areas long travel times in the vadose zone may delay the impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate.

This report is submitted in compliance with the conditions set out in the grant awarded to the British Geological Survey (BGS), for the period April 2016 – March 2017, to support the jointly-funded project "Science-based environmental baseline monitoring". It presents the results of monitoring and/or measurement and preliminary interpretation of these data to characterise the baseline environmental conditions in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire and for air quality, the Fylde in Lancashire ahead of any shale gas development. The two areas where the monitoring is taking place have seen, during the project, planning applications approved for the exploration for shale gas and hydraulic fracturing. It is widely recognised that there is a need for good environmental baseline data and establishment of effective monitoring protocols ahead of any shale gas/oil development. This monitoring will enable future changes that may occur as a result of industrial activity to be identified and differentiated from other natural and man-made changes that are influencing the baseline. Continued monitoring will then enable any deviations from the baseline, should they occur, to be identified and investigated independently to determine the possible causes, sources and significance to the environment and public health. The absence of such data in the United States has undermined public confidence, led to major controversy and inability to identify and effectively deal with impact/contamination where it has occurred. A key aim of this work is to avoid a similar situation and the independent monitoring being carried out as part of this project provides an opportunity to develop robust environmental baseline for the two study areas and monitoring procedures, and share experience that is applicable to the wider UK situation. This work is internationally unique and comprises an inter-disciplinary researcher-led programme that is developing, testing and implementing monitoring methodologie

Global-scale nitrogen budgets developed to quantify anthropogenic impacts on the nitrogen cycle do not explicitly consider nitrate stored in the vadose zone. Here we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate that should be considered in future budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of groundwater depth and nitrate leaching for 1900–2000, we quantify the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone as 605–1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using basin-scale and national-scale estimates and observed groundwater nitrate data. Nitrate storage per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Europe where there are thick vadose zones and extensive historical agriculture. In these areas, long travel times in the vadose zone may delay the impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate.

This report presents the collated results from the BGS-led project Science-based environmental baseline monitoring associated with shale gas development in the Vale of Pickering (including supplementary air quality monitoring in Lancashire). The project has been funded by a grant awarded by DECC for the period August 2015 – 31st March 2016. It complements (and extends to air quality) an on-going project, funded by BGS and the other project partners, in which similar activities are being carried out in the Fylde area of Lancashire. The project has initiated a wide-ranging environmental baseline monitoring programme that includes water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases and air quality), soil gas and radon in air (indoors and outdoors). The motivation behind the project(s) was to establish independent monitoring in the area around the proposed shale gas hydraulic fracturing sites in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire (Third Energy) and in Lancashire (Cuadrilla) before any shale gas operations take place. As part of the project, instrumentation has been deployed to measure, in real-time or near real-time, a range of environmental variables (water quality, seismicity, atmospheric composition). These data are being displayed on the project’s web site (www.bgs.ac.uk/Valeofpickering). Additional survey, sampling and monitoring has also been carried out through a co-ordinated programme of fieldwork and laboratory analysis, which has included installation of new monitoring infrastructure, to allow compilation of one of the most comprehensive environmental datasets in the UK. It is generally recognised that at least 12 months of baseline data are required. The duration of the grant award (7 months) has meant that this has not yet been possible. However there are already some very important findings emerging from the limited datasets which need be taken in to account when developing future monitorin

The British Geological Survey (BGS), together with a number of partners is undertaking an independent environmental monitoring programme to characterise baseline conditions in the south Fylde east of Blackpool in an area proposed for shale-gas exploration and production. The monitoring will include measurement of: water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, air quality including radon, and soil gas. The programme aims to establish the environmental baseline before any shale-gas explorations begin. This report presents the results of a desk study to develop an initial summary of the post- Carboniferous bedrock geology of the south Fylde. It is a component and specific deliverable of the environmental baseline project. The bedrock deposits form a number of shallow aquifers that are used locally for drinking water supply and agriculture. A separate report considers the superficial geology. The geological information in this report will form the basis for identifying aquifer dimensions and configurations, groundwater flow paths and potential contaminant migration pathways, as well as determining optimum locations for sampling and monitoring. It will also provide information to support the locating of new borehole infrastructure (suitable for groundwater sampling and seismometers) and will underpin the interpretation of acquired hydrogeochemical data.

This report details the findings of a project jointly funded by the British Geological Survey (BGS)and Defra through the Environment Agency. The overall aim of the work was to investigate the use of new models to inform decision-making on nitrate pollution in groundwater and the potential for incorporating unsaturated zone processes into the model currently used by the Environment Agency to delineate Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs). The potential application as supporting evidence for the Water Framework Directive has also been considered as nitrate pollution of groundwater remains the most significant reason for failure of WFD environmental objectives across England. The background to the nitrate legacy in groundwater and to the approaches to NVZ designation is described in Stuart et al. (2016). A series of developments to the BGS Nitrate Time Bomb (NTB) model have been made to improve a number of areas and approaches used in the first version of the model. The improvements included a spatially and temporally distributed nitrate input function, improved unsaturated zone thickness estimation, travel time attribution using a 1:250,000 geological map, estimating nitrate velocity in the unsaturated zone using groundwater recharge and aquifer properties, and introducing nitrate transport processes in low permeability superficial deposits and the saturated zones. These now allow the model to be applied at sub national scale. Using the improved model we have also made the first estimate of the mass of nitrate stored within the unsaturated zone and how this will change over time to improve UK nitrate budget estimates. The new version of the BGS NTB approach was applied in three case studies at different scales which compared its outcomes to the results from other modelling to demonstrate that the model can be benchmarked against the other nitrate modelling approaches: • For a basin-scale model of the Thames Chalk (Howden et al., 2010 & 2011). The NTB model gave comparable

This report forms the first deliverable of a project jointly funded by BGS and the Environment Agency to consider the potential for incorporating the outputs from the BGS unsaturated zone travel time work in assessing the risks to water from nitrate. This is to help to inform the nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZs) designation process. In England, the Environment Agency advises Defra on identifying areas for designation as NVZs. Over time, the designation process has developed and become more complex since the first round of designations in 1996. The designation process for groundwater initially used only public supply monitoring data and the associated source catchment area. In December 2000, the European Court of Justice held that the UK had failed to designate sufficient NVZs for the protection of all waters, not just for drinking water sources. This resulted in the development of revised methodologies for the designation of NVZs which separately address surface waters, groundwater and waters at risk of eutrophication. This was implemented in 2002. Further reviews have been carried out in 2008 and 2012 and as a result, modifications and improvements to methods have been made at each designation round. For groundwater the Environment Agency developed a numerical risk assessment procedure that uses a range of risk factors including both nitrate concentration data and nitrate-loading data to assess the risk of nitrate pollution. The loading data is based on farm census returns made to Defra and combined using the NEAP-N methodology developed by ADAS (Lord and Anthony, 2000). The overall risk assessment considers both current observed concentrations and predicted future concentrations as well as current loadings. However, this approach has a number of disadvantages including a lack of a specific term for the time of travel to the water table and emergence of pollutant both into groundwater and to groundwater discharge points that support surface water features. Instead

Nitrate is necessary for agricultural productivity, but can cause considerable problems if released into aquatic systems. Agricultural land is the major source of nitrates in UK groundwater. Due to the long time-lag in the groundwater system, it could take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into freshwaters. However, this nitrate time-lag has rarely been considered in environmental water management. Against this background, this paper presents an approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale, to simulate the impacts of historical nitrate loading from agricultural land on the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations. An additional process-based component was constructed for the saturated zone of significant aquifers in England and Wales. This uses a simple flow model which requires modelled recharge values, together with published aquifer properties and thickness data. A spatially distributed and temporally variable nitrate input function was also introduced. The sensitivity of parameters was analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was calibrated using national nitrate monitoring data. Time series of annual average nitrate concentrations along with annual spatially distributed nitrate concentration maps from 1925 to 2150 were generated for 28 selected aquifer zones. The results show that 16 aquifer zones have an increasing trend in nitrate concentration, while average nitrate concentrations in the remaining 12 are declining. The results are also indicative of the trend in the flux of groundwater nitrate entering rivers through baseflow. The model thus enables the magnitude and timescale of groundwater nitrate response to be factored into source apportionment tools and to be taken into account alongside current planning of land-management options for reducing nitrate losses.

National terrestrial nitrogen budgets for many developed countries have been calculated as part of the management of impacts of N on the environment, but these rarely represent the subsurface explicitly. Using estimates of vadose zone travel time and agricultural nitrate loading, we quantify, for the first time, the total mass of nitrate contained in the vadose zone of aquifers in England and Wales. This mass peaked in 2008 at 1400 kt N (800 to >1700 kt N from sensitivity analyses) which is approximately 2.5 to 6 times greater than saturated zone estimates for this period and indicates that the subsurface is an important store of reactive nitrogen. About 70% of the nitrate mass is estimated to be in the Chalk, with the remainder split between the Permo-Triassic sandstones, the Jurassic Oolitic limestones and minor aquifers. Current controls on fertiliser application mean that the vadose zone is now a nitrate source and in 2015 we estimate the net flux from the unsaturated zone to groundwater to be 72 kt N/annum. The mass of nitrate in the vadose zone should be included in future terrestrial nitrogen budgets at national and global scales to improve ecosystem management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The British Geological Survey (BGS), together with a number of partners is undertaking an independent environmental monitoring programme to characterise baseline conditions in the south Fylde east of Blackpool in an area proposed for shale-gas exploration and production. The monitoring will include measurement of: water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, air quality including radon, and soil gas. The programme aims to establish the environmental baseline before any shale-gas explorations begin. This report presents the results of a desk study to develop an initial summary of the post- Carboniferous bedrock geology of the south Fylde. It is a component and specific deliverable of the environmental baseline project. The bedrock deposits form a number of shallow aquifers that are used locally for drinking water supply and agriculture. A separate report considers the superficial geology. The geological information in this report will form the basis for identifying aquifer dimensions and configurations, groundwater flow paths and potential contaminant migration pathways, as well as determining optimum locations for sampling and monitoring. It will also provide information to support the locating of new borehole infrastructure (suitable for groundwater sampling and seismometers) and will underpin the interpretation of acquired hydrogeochemical data.

This report presents the collated results from the BGS-led project Science-based environmental baseline monitoring associated with shale gas development in the Vale of Pickering (including supplementary air quality monitoring in Lancashire). The project has been funded by a grant awarded by DECC for the period August 2015 – 31st March 2016. It complements (and extends to air quality) an on-going project, funded by BGS and the other project partners, in which similar activities are being carried out in the Fylde area of Lancashire. The project has initiated a wide-ranging environmental baseline monitoring programme that includes water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, atmospheric composition (greenhouse gases and air quality), soil gas and radon in air (indoors and outdoors). The motivation behind the project(s) was to establish independent monitoring in the area around the proposed shale gas hydraulic fracturing sites in the Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire (Third Energy) and in Lancashire (Cuadrilla) before any shale gas operations take place. As part of the project, instrumentation has been deployed to measure, in real-time or near real-time, a range of environmental variables (water quality, seismicity, atmospheric composition). These data are being displayed on the project’s web site (www.bgs.ac.uk/Valeofpickering). Additional survey, sampling and monitoring has also been carried out through a co-ordinated programme of fieldwork and laboratory analysis, which has included installation of new monitoring infrastructure, to allow compilation of one of the most comprehensive environmental datasets in the UK. It is generally recognised that at least 12 months of baseline data are required. The duration of the grant award (7 months) has meant that this has not yet been possible. However there are already some very important findings emerging from the limited datasets which need be taken in to account when developing future monitorin

This report details the findings of a project jointly funded by the British Geological Survey (BGS)and Defra through the Environment Agency. The overall aim of the work was to investigate the use of new models to inform decision-making on nitrate pollution in groundwater and the potential for incorporating unsaturated zone processes into the model currently used by the Environment Agency to delineate Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs). The potential application as supporting evidence for the Water Framework Directive has also been considered as nitrate pollution of groundwater remains the most significant reason for failure of WFD environmental objectives across England. The background to the nitrate legacy in groundwater and to the approaches to NVZ designation is described in Stuart et al. (2016). A series of developments to the BGS Nitrate Time Bomb (NTB) model have been made to improve a number of areas and approaches used in the first version of the model. The improvements included a spatially and temporally distributed nitrate input function, improved unsaturated zone thickness estimation, travel time attribution using a 1:250,000 geological map, estimating nitrate velocity in the unsaturated zone using groundwater recharge and aquifer properties, and introducing nitrate transport processes in low permeability superficial deposits and the saturated zones. These now allow the model to be applied at sub national scale. Using the improved model we have also made the first estimate of the mass of nitrate stored within the unsaturated zone and how this will change over time to improve UK nitrate budget estimates. The new version of the BGS NTB approach was applied in three case studies at different scales which compared its outcomes to the results from other modelling to demonstrate that the model can be benchmarked against the other nitrate modelling approaches: • For a basin-scale model of the Thames Chalk (Howden et al., 2010 & 2011). The NTB model gave comparable

This report forms the first deliverable of a project jointly funded by BGS and the Environment Agency to consider the potential for incorporating the outputs from the BGS unsaturated zone travel time work in assessing the risks to water from nitrate. This is to help to inform the nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZs) designation process. In England, the Environment Agency advises Defra on identifying areas for designation as NVZs. Over time, the designation process has developed and become more complex since the first round of designations in 1996. The designation process for groundwater initially used only public supply monitoring data and the associated source catchment area. In December 2000, the European Court of Justice held that the UK had failed to designate sufficient NVZs for the protection of all waters, not just for drinking water sources. This resulted in the development of revised methodologies for the designation of NVZs which separately address surface waters, groundwater and waters at risk of eutrophication. This was implemented in 2002. Further reviews have been carried out in 2008 and 2012 and as a result, modifications and improvements to methods have been made at each designation round. For groundwater the Environment Agency developed a numerical risk assessment procedure that uses a range of risk factors including both nitrate concentration data and nitrate-loading data to assess the risk of nitrate pollution. The loading data is based on farm census returns made to Defra and combined using the NEAP-N methodology developed by ADAS (Lord and Anthony, 2000). The overall risk assessment considers both current observed concentrations and predicted future concentrations as well as current loadings. However, this approach has a number of disadvantages including a lack of a specific term for the time of travel to the water table and emergence of pollutant both into groundwater and to groundwater discharge points that support surface water features. Instead

Nitrate is necessary for agricultural productivity, but can cause considerable problems if released into aquatic systems. Agricultural land is the major source of nitrates in UK groundwater. Due to the long time-lag in the groundwater system, it could take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into freshwaters. However, this nitrate time-lag has rarely been considered in environmental water management. Against this background, this paper presents an approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale, to simulate the impacts of historical nitrate loading from agricultural land on the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations. An additional process-based component was constructed for the saturated zone of significant aquifers in England and Wales. This uses a simple flow model which requires modelled recharge values, together with published aquifer properties and thickness data. A spatially distributed and temporally variable nitrate input function was also introduced. The sensitivity of parameters was analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was calibrated using national nitrate monitoring data. Time series of annual average nitrate concentrations along with annual spatially distributed nitrate concentration maps from 1925 to 2150 were generated for 28 selected aquifer zones. The results show that 16 aquifer zones have an increasing trend in nitrate concentration, while average nitrate concentrations in the remaining 12 are declining. The results are also indicative of the trend in the flux of groundwater nitrate entering rivers through baseflow. The model thus enables the magnitude and timescale of groundwater nitrate response to be factored into source apportionment tools and to be taken into account alongside current planning of land-management options for reducing nitrate losses.

National terrestrial nitrogen budgets for many developed countries have been calculated as part of the management of impacts of N on the environment, but these rarely represent the subsurface explicitly. Using estimates of vadose zone travel time and agricultural nitrate loading, we quantify, for the first time, the total mass of nitrate contained in the vadose zone of aquifers in England and Wales. This mass peaked in 2008 at 1400 kt N (800 to >1700 kt N from sensitivity analyses) which is approximately 2.5 to 6 times greater than saturated zone estimates for this period and indicates that the subsurface is an important store of reactive nitrogen. About 70% of the nitrate mass is estimated to be in the Chalk, with the remainder split between the Permo-Triassic sandstones, the Jurassic Oolitic limestones and minor aquifers. Current controls on fertiliser application mean that the vadose zone is now a nitrate source and in 2015 we estimate the net flux from the unsaturated zone to groundwater to be 72 kt N/annum. The mass of nitrate in the vadose zone should be included in future terrestrial nitrogen budgets at national and global scales to improve ecosystem management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

In the wake of widespread groundwater flooding that affected properties and infrastructure in southern England during 2014, a review has been undertaken of the number of properties in England that might be vulnerable during episodes of high groundwater levels, and an estimate made of how many properties might be affected in susceptible areas. Groundwater flooding can happen in many geological environments, but is a particular problem on Chalk and Limestone aquifers, where around 920,000 properties are in areas where groundwater emergence could occur. This represents fewer properties than previously estimated for these areas. However, a further 3,800,000 properties are in areas underlain by other aquifer types that could be affected by groundwater flooding or shallow water tables. The actual impact of groundwater flooding on properties is often mitigated by building design or natural/artificial drainage systems which act to lower water tables and move emergent water to rivers. As a result only a small percentage of properties identified above are likely to be impacted by groundwater flooding. Although there is limited observational data, we believe that up to 138,000 properties might be impacted in chalk and limestone areas and up to 151,600 in other areas. This means the revised estimate of the number of properties in areas at risk of groundwater flooding is between 122,000 and 290,000. Groundwater may play a role in the flooding of a further 980,000 properties in areas that are also at risk from river and/or coastal flooding. In addition, groundwater flooding is a significant issue for subsurface infrastructure. Note that this latter issue has not been assessed in this report.

The British Geological Survey (BGS), together with a number of partners is undertaking an independent environmental monitoring programme to characterise baseline conditions across the Vale of Pickering in North Yorkshire, in the vicinity of a site close to Kirby Misperton (Third Energy, KM8) proposed for shale-gas exploration and production. The monitoring will include measurement of: water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, air quality including radon, and soil gas. The programme aims to establish the environmental baseline before any shale-gas explorations begin. This report presents the results of a desk study to develop an initial summary of the post-Permian bedrock geology across the Vale of Pickering. It is a component and specific deliverable of the environmental baseline project. The bedrock deposits form a number of shallow aquifers that are used locally for drinking water supply and agriculture. A separate report considers the superficial geology. The geological information in this report will form the basis for identifying aquifer dimensions and configurations, groundwater flow paths and potential contaminant migration pathways, as well as determining optimum locations for sampling and monitoring. It will also provide information to support the locating of new borehole infrastructure (suitable for groundwater sampling and seismometers) and will underpin the interpretation of acquired hydrogeochemical data.

To date, the majority of hydrological forecasting studies have focussed on using medium-range (3–15 days) weather forecasts to drive hydrological models and make predictions of future river flows. With recent developments in seasonal (1–3 months) weather forecast skill, such as those from the latest version of the UK Met Office global seasonal forecast system (GloSea5), there is now an opportunity to use similar methodologies to forecast groundwater levels in more slowly responding aquifers on seasonal timescales. This study uses seasonal rainfall forecasts and a lumped groundwater model to simulate groundwater levels at 21 locations in the United Kingdom up to three months into the future. The results indicate that the forecasts have skill; outperforming a persistence forecast and demonstrating reliability, resolution and discrimination. However, there is currently little to gain from using seasonal rainfall forecasts over using site climatology for this type of application. Furthermore, the forecasts are not able to capture extreme groundwater levels, primarily because of inadequacies in the driving rainfall forecasts. The findings also show that the origin of forecast skill, be it from the meteorological input, groundwater model or initial condition, is site specific and related to the groundwater response characteristics to rainfall and antecedent hydro-meteorological conditions.

The British Geological Survey (BGS), together with a number of partners is undertaking an independent environmental monitoring programme to characterise baseline conditions across the Vale of Pickering in North Yorkshire, in the vicinity of a site close to Kirby Misperton (Third Energy, KM8) proposed for shale-gas exploration and production. The monitoring will include measurement of: water quality (groundwater and surface water), seismicity, ground motion, air quality including radon, and soil gas. The programme aims to establish the environmental baseline before any shale-gas explorations begin. This report presents the results of a desk study to develop an initial summary of the post-Permian bedrock geology across the Vale of Pickering. It is a component and specific deliverable of the environmental baseline project. The bedrock deposits form a number of shallow aquifers that are used locally for drinking water supply and agriculture. A separate report considers the superficial geology. The geological information in this report will form the basis for identifying aquifer dimensions and configurations, groundwater flow paths and potential contaminant migration pathways, as well as determining optimum locations for sampling and monitoring. It will also provide information to support the locating of new borehole infrastructure (suitable for groundwater sampling and seismometers) and will underpin the interpretation of acquired hydrogeochemical data.

To date, the majority of hydrological forecasting studies have focussed on using medium-range (3–15 days) weather forecasts to drive hydrological models and make predictions of future river flows. With recent developments in seasonal (1–3 months) weather forecast skill, such as those from the latest version of the UK Met Office global seasonal forecast system (GloSea5), there is now an opportunity to use similar methodologies to forecast groundwater levels in more slowly responding aquifers on seasonal timescales. This study uses seasonal rainfall forecasts and a lumped groundwater model to simulate groundwater levels at 21 locations in the United Kingdom up to three months into the future. The results indicate that the forecasts have skill; outperforming a persistence forecast and demonstrating reliability, resolution and discrimination. However, there is currently little to gain from using seasonal rainfall forecasts over using site climatology for this type of application. Furthermore, the forecasts are not able to capture extreme groundwater levels, primarily because of inadequacies in the driving rainfall forecasts. The findings also show that the origin of forecast skill, be it from the meteorological input, groundwater model or initial condition, is site specific and related to the groundwater response characteristics to rainfall and antecedent hydro-meteorological conditions.

In the wake of widespread groundwater flooding that affected properties and infrastructure in southern England during 2014, a review has been undertaken of the number of properties in England that might be vulnerable during episodes of high groundwater levels, and an estimate made of how many properties might be affected in susceptible areas. Groundwater flooding can happen in many geological environments, but is a particular problem on Chalk and Limestone aquifers, where around 920,000 properties are in areas where groundwater emergence could occur. This represents fewer properties than previously estimated for these areas. However, a further 3,800,000 properties are in areas underlain by other aquifer types that could be affected by groundwater flooding or shallow water tables. The actual impact of groundwater flooding on properties is often mitigated by building design or natural/artificial drainage systems which act to lower water tables and move emergent water to rivers. As a result only a small percentage of properties identified above are likely to be impacted by groundwater flooding. Although there is limited observational data, we believe that up to 138,000 properties might be impacted in chalk and limestone areas and up to 151,600 in other areas. This means the revised estimate of the number of properties in areas at risk of groundwater flooding is between 122,000 and 290,000. Groundwater may play a role in the flooding of a further 980,000 properties in areas that are also at risk from river and/or coastal flooding. In addition, groundwater flooding is a significant issue for subsurface infrastructure. Note that this latter issue has not been assessed in this report.