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Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ-GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ-GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post-glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post-glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ-GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ-GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post-glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post-glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ-GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ-GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post-glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post-glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ-GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ-GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post-glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post-glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

Subarctic ecosystems are exposed to elevated temperatures and increased cloudiness in a changing climate with potentially important effects on vegetation structure, composition, and ecosystem functioning. We investigated the individual and combined effects of warming and increased cloudiness on vegetation greenness and cover in mesocosms from two tundra and one palsa mire ecosystems kept under strict environmental control in climate chambers. We also investigated leaf anatomical and biochemical traits of four dominant vascular plant species (Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium vitis-idaea, and Rubus chamaemorus). Vegetation greenness increased in response to warming in all sites and in response to increased cloudiness in the tundra sites but without associated increases in vegetation cover or biomass, except that E. hermaphroditum biomass increased under warming. The combined warming and increased cloudiness treatment had an additive effect on vegetation greenness in all sites. It also increased the cover of graminoids and forbs in one of the tundra sites. Warming increased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus and R. chamaemorus, and glandular trichome density of V. myrtillus and decreased spongy intercellular space of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Increased cloudiness decreased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus, palisade thickness of E. hermaphroditum, and stomata density of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea, and increased leaf area and epidermis thickness of V. myrtillus, leaf shape index and nitrogen of E. hermaphroditum, and palisade intercellular space of V. vitis-idaea. The combined treatment caused thinner leaves and decreased leaf carbon for V. myrtillus, and increased leaf chlorophyll of E. hermaphroditum. We show that under future warmer increased cloudiness conditions in the Subarctic (as simulated in our experiment), vegetation composition and distribution will change, mostly dominated by graminoids and forbs. These, Subarctic ecosystems are exposed to elevated temperatures and increased cloudiness in a changing climate with potentially important effects on vegetation structure, composition, and ecosystem functioning. We investigated the individual and combined effects of warming and increased cloudiness on vegetation greenness and cover in mesocosms from two tundra and one palsa mire ecosystems kept under strict environmental control in climate chambers. We also investigated leaf anatomical and biochemical traits of four dominant vascular plant species (Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium vitis-idaea, and Rubus chamaemorus). Vegetation greenness increased in response to warming in all sites and in response to increased cloudiness in the tundra sites but without associated increases in vegetation cover or biomass, except that E. hermaphroditum biomass increased under warming. The combined warming and increased cloudiness treatment had an additive effect on vegetation greenness in all sites. It also increased the cover of graminoids and forbs in one of the tundra sites. Warming increased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus and R. chamaemorus, and glandular trichome density of V. myrtillus and decreased spongy intercellular space of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Increased cloudiness decreased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus, palisade thickness of E. hermaphroditum, and stomata density of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea, and increased leaf area and epidermis thickness of V. myrtillus, leaf shape index and nitrogen of E. hermaphroditum, and palisade intercellular space of V. vitis-idaea. The combined treatment caused thinner leaves and decreased leaf carbon for V. myrtillus, and increased leaf chlorophyll of E. hermaphroditum. We show that under future warmer increased cloudiness conditions in the Subarctic (as simulated in our experiment), vegetation composition and distribution will change, mostly dominated by graminoids and forbs. The

Aim: How the ability of plants to move towards newly favourable habitats (dispersal limitation) impacts the change of biome distribution and transition under fast climate warming is still debated. Analysing vegetation change in the past may help to clarify the relative importance of underlying ecological processes such as climate, biotic interactions, and dispersal. In this study, we investigated how dispersal limitation affected the distribution of European forests in the last 18,000 years. Location: Southern and Central Europe. Taxon: Spermatophyta. Methods: Using the LPJ-GM 2.0 model (an extension of LPJ-GUESS), we simulated European vegetation from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (18.5 ka) to the current time (0 ka). Using biome reconstructions from pollen data as reference, we compared the performance of two dispersal modes: with no migration constraints or seed limitation (free dispersal mode), and with plant establishment depending on seed dynamics and dispersal (dispersal limitation mode). Results: The model run, including migration processes, was better at capturing the post-glacial expansion of European temperate forests (and the longer persistence of boreal forests) than the setting assuming free dispersal, especially during periods of rapid warming. This suggests that a number of (temperate) tree taxa experienced delayed occupancy of climatically suitable habitats due to a limited dispersal capacity, i.e., post-glacial migration lags. Main Conclusions: Our results show that including migration processes in model simulations allows for more realistic reconstructions of forest patterns under rapid climate change, with consequences for future projections of carbon sequestration and climate reconstructions with vegetation feedback, assisted migration and forest conservation.

Subarctic ecosystems are exposed to elevated temperatures and increased cloudiness in a changing climate with potentially important effects on vegetation structure, composition, and ecosystem functioning. We investigated the individual and combined effects of warming and increased cloudiness on vegetation greenness and cover in mesocosms from two tundra and one palsa mire ecosystems kept under strict environmental control in climate chambers. We also investigated leaf anatomical and biochemical traits of four dominant vascular plant species (Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium vitis-idaea, and Rubus chamaemorus). Vegetation greenness increased in response to warming in all sites and in response to increased cloudiness in the tundra sites but without associated increases in vegetation cover or biomass, except that E. hermaphroditum biomass increased under warming. The combined warming and increased cloudiness treatment had an additive effect on vegetation greenness in all sites. It also increased the cover of graminoids and forbs in one of the tundra sites. Warming increased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus and R. chamaemorus, and glandular trichome density of V. myrtillus and decreased spongy intercellular space of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Increased cloudiness decreased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus, palisade thickness of E. hermaphroditum, and stomata density of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea, and increased leaf area and epidermis thickness of V. myrtillus, leaf shape index and nitrogen of E. hermaphroditum, and palisade intercellular space of V. vitis-idaea. The combined treatment caused thinner leaves and decreased leaf carbon for V. myrtillus, and increased leaf chlorophyll of E. hermaphroditum. We show that under future warmer increased cloudiness conditions in the Subarctic (as simulated in our experiment), vegetation composition and distribution will change, mostly dominated by graminoids and forbs. These, Subarctic ecosystems are exposed to elevated temperatures and increased cloudiness in a changing climate with potentially important effects on vegetation structure, composition, and ecosystem functioning. We investigated the individual and combined effects of warming and increased cloudiness on vegetation greenness and cover in mesocosms from two tundra and one palsa mire ecosystems kept under strict environmental control in climate chambers. We also investigated leaf anatomical and biochemical traits of four dominant vascular plant species (Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium vitis-idaea, and Rubus chamaemorus). Vegetation greenness increased in response to warming in all sites and in response to increased cloudiness in the tundra sites but without associated increases in vegetation cover or biomass, except that E. hermaphroditum biomass increased under warming. The combined warming and increased cloudiness treatment had an additive effect on vegetation greenness in all sites. It also increased the cover of graminoids and forbs in one of the tundra sites. Warming increased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus and R. chamaemorus, and glandular trichome density of V. myrtillus and decreased spongy intercellular space of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Increased cloudiness decreased leaf dry mass per area of V. myrtillus, palisade thickness of E. hermaphroditum, and stomata density of E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea, and increased leaf area and epidermis thickness of V. myrtillus, leaf shape index and nitrogen of E. hermaphroditum, and palisade intercellular space of V. vitis-idaea. The combined treatment caused thinner leaves and decreased leaf carbon for V. myrtillus, and increased leaf chlorophyll of E. hermaphroditum. We show that under future warmer increased cloudiness conditions in the Subarctic (as simulated in our experiment), vegetation composition and distribution will change, mostly dominated by graminoids and forbs. The

Climate warming is leading to permafrost thaw in northern peatlands, and current predictions suggest that thawing will drive greater surface wetness and an increase in methane emissions. Hydrology largely drives peatland vegetation composition, which is a key element in peatland functioning and thus in carbon dynamics. These processes are expected to change. Peatland carbon accumulation is determined by the balance between plant production and peat decomposition. But both processes are expected to accelerate in northern peatlands due to warming, leading to uncertainty in future peatland carbon budgets. Here, we compile a dataset of vegetation changes and apparent carbon accumulation data reconstructed from 33 peat cores collected from 16 sub-arctic peatlands in Fennoscandia and European Russia. The data cover the past two millennia that has undergone prominent changes in climate and a notable increase in annual temperatures toward present times. We show a pattern where European sub-Arctic peatland microhabitats have undergone a habitat change where currently drier habitats dominated by Sphagnum mosses replaced wetter sedge-dominated vegetation and these new habitats have remained relatively stable over the recent decades. Our results suggest an alternative future pathway where sub-arctic peatlands may at least partly sustain dry vegetation and enhance the carbon sink capacity of northern peatlands.

Climate change affects the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions by exposing previously frozen permafrost to thaw, unlocking soil nutrients, changing hydrological processes, and boosting plant growth. As a result, sub-Arctic tundra is subject to a shrub expansion, called “shrubification”, at the expense of sedge species. Depending on the intrinsic foliar properties of these plant species, changes in foliar mineral element fluxes with shrubification in the context of permafrost degradation may influence topsoil mineral element composition. Despite the potential implications of changes in topsoil mineral element concentrations for the fate of organic carbon, this remains poorly quantified. Here, we investigate vegetation foliar and topsoil mineral element composition (Si, K, Ca, P, Mn, Zn, Cu, Mo, V) across a natural gradient of permafrost degradation at a typical sub-Arctic tundra at Eight Mile Lake (Alaska, USA). Results show that foliar mineral element concentrations are higher (up to 9 times; Si, K, Mo for all species, and for some species Zn) or lower (up to 2 times; Ca, P, Mn, Cu, V for all species, and for some species Zn) in sedge than in shrub species. As a result, a vegetation shift over ~40 years has resulted in lower topsoil concentrations in Si, K, Zn, and Mo (respectively of 52, 24, 20, and 51%) in highly degraded permafrost sites compared to poorly degraded permafrost sites due to lower foliar fluxes of these elements. For other elements (Ca, P, Mn, Cu, and V), the vegetation shift has not induced a marked change in topsoil concentrations at this current stage of permafrost degradation. A modeled amplified shrubification associated with a further permafrost degradation is expected to increase foliar Ca, P, Mn, Cu, and V fluxes, which will likely change these element concentrations in topsoil. These data can serve as a first estimate to assess the influence of other shifts in vegetation in Arctic and sub-Arctic tundra such as sedge expansion under wetter soil co

Arctic warming and permafrost degradation are modifying northern ecosystems through changes in microtopography, soil water dynamics, nutrient availability, and vegetation succession. Upon permafrost degradation, the release of deep stores of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, from newly thawed permafrost stimulates Arctic vegetation production. More specifically, wetter lowlands show an increase in sedges (as part of graminoids), whereas drier uplands favor shrub expansion. These shifts in the composition of vegetation may influence local mineral element cycling through litter production. In this study, we evaluate the influence of permafrost degradation on mineral element foliar stocks and potential annual fluxes upon litterfall. We measured the foliar elemental composition (Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mn, P, S, Si, and Zn) of ∼ 500 samples of typical tundra plant species from two contrasting Alaskan tundra sites, i.e., an experimental sedge-dominated site (Carbon in Permafrost Experimental Heating Research, CiPEHR) and natural shrub-dominated site (Gradient). The foliar concentration of these mineral elements was species specific, with sedge leaves having relatively high Si concentration and shrub leaves having relatively high Ca and Mn concentrations. Therefore, changes in the species biomass composition of the Arctic tundra in response to permafrost thaw are expected to be the main factors that dictate changes in elemental composition of foliar stocks and maximum potential foliar fluxes upon litterfall. We observed an increase in the mineral element foliar stocks and potential annual litterfall fluxes, with Si increasing with sedge expansion in wetter sites (CiPEHR), and Ca and Mn increasing with shrub expansion in drier sites (Gradient). Consequently, we expect that sedge and shrub expansion upon permafrost thaw will lead to changes in litter elemental composition and therefore affect nutrient cycling across the sub-Arctic tundra with potential implications for fur

Arctic and boreal permafrost soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition has been slower than carbon inputs from plant growth since the last glaciation. Anthropogenic climate warming has threatened this historical trend by accelerating SOC decomposition and altering wildfire regimes. We accurately modeled observed plant biomass and carbon emissions from wildfires in Alaskan ecosystems under current climate conditions. In projections to 2300 under the RCP8.5 climate scenario, we found that warming and increased atmospheric CO2 will result in plant biomass gains and higher litterfall. However, increased carbon losses from (a) wildfire combustion and (b) rapid SOC decomposition driven by increased deciduous litter production, root exudation, and active layer depth will lead to about 4.4 PgC of soil carbon losses from Alaska by 2300 and most (88%) of these loses will be from the top 1 m of soil. These SOC losses offset plant carbon gains, causing the ecosystem to transition to a net carbon source after 2200. Simulations excluding wildfire increases yielded about a factor of four lower SOC losses by 2300. Our results show that projected wildfire and its direct and indirect effects on plant and soil carbon may accelerate high-latitude soil carbon losses, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change.

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215).

Climate change has the potential to impact headwater streams in the Arctic by thawing permafrost and subsequently altering hydrologic regimes and vegetation distribution, physiognomy and productivity. Permafrost thaw and increased subsurface flow have been inferred from the chemistry of large rivers, but there is limited empirical evidence of the impacts to headwater streams. Here we demonstrate how changing vegetation cover and soil thaw may alter headwater catchment hydrology using water budgets, stream discharge trends, and chemistry across a gradient of ground temperature in northwestern Alaska. Colder, tundra-dominated catchments shed precipitation through stream discharge, whereas in warmer catchments with greater forest extent, evapotranspiration (ET) and infiltration are substantial fluxes. Forest soils thaw earlier, remain thawed longer, and display seasonal water content declines, consistent with greater ET and infiltration. Streambed infiltration and water chemistry indicate that even minor warming can lead to increased infiltration and subsurface flow. Additional warming, permafrost loss, and vegetation shifts in the Arctic will deliver water back to the atmosphere and to subsurface aquifers in many regions, with the potential to substantially reduce discharge in headwater streams, if not compensated by increasing precipitation. Decreasing discharge in headwater streams will have important implications for aquatic and riparian ecosystems.

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collec-tion of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215).

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collec-tion of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215).

Climate change has the potential to impact headwater streams in the Arctic by thawing permafrost and subsequently altering hydrologic regimes and vegetation distribution, physiognomy and productivity. Permafrost thaw and increased subsurface flow have been inferred from the chemistry of large rivers, but there is limited empirical evidence of the impacts to headwater streams. Here we demonstrate how changing vegetation cover and soil thaw may alter headwater catchment hydrology using water budgets, stream discharge trends, and chemistry across a gradient of ground temperature in northwestern Alaska. Colder, tundra-dominated catchments shed precipitation through stream discharge, whereas in warmer catchments with greater forest extent, evapotranspiration (ET) and infiltration are substantial fluxes. Forest soils thaw earlier, remain thawed longer, and display seasonal water content declines, consistent with greater ET and infiltration. Streambed infiltration and water chemistry indicate that even minor warming can lead to increased infiltration and subsurface flow. Additional warming, permafrost loss, and vegetation shifts in the Arctic will deliver water back to the atmosphere and to subsurface aquifers in many regions, with the potential to substantially reduce discharge in headwater streams, if not compensated by increasing precipitation. Decreasing discharge in headwater streams will have important implications for aquatic and riparian ecosystems.

Guðrún Guðjónsdóttir Climate change is having a great impact on the fragile High Latitude environment where warming is occurring at a rate at least double the global average. It is urgent to understand the relationship between climate and vegetation cover, which is playing an important role, as a carbon sink, for biodiversity, and for protecting against natural hazards. Less studied but equally important is to understand how mountain areas are responding to climate warming and how topography; elevation, aspect, and slope are affecting vegetation distribution and dynamics. This study focuses on Tindfjöll mountain, Iceland, and compares two transects representing two different aspects (one south facing and one west facing) between the years 2004 and 2019. The results show that vegetation coverage has increased in both areas while for the same period climate warming has been approximately 1°C. This is especially significant for the vegetation class moss heath. The classes glacier and sand/gravel have on the other hand retreated. The south facing transect has shown more significant increase and the vegetation line in the same area has ascended about 150 m during the study period. These results indicate that not only climate is having a significant impact on vegetation production but also topography; elevation, aspect, and slope is creating a microclimate which highly affects vegetation growth. The most important factor is temperature with higher summer temperature and prolonged growing season while warmer winters lead to less protecting snow cover. Aspect and incoming solar radiation are also a strong influencing factor as south facing slopes (more incoming solar radiation) are showing much stronger vegetation responses than west facing slopes. The findings indicate that similar changes might be occurring in other arctic areas which requires further investigation. Advisor: Micael Runnström Master degree project 30 credits in Environmental Changes in High Latitudes, 2022, Guðrún Guðjónsdóttir Vegetation cover change in Tindfjöll mountain, Iceland* Climate warming is two times faster in the Arctic than elsewhere on the planet. The warming is already having a great impact on the arctic environment by melting of glaciers, less sea-ice, and changes in vegetation cover. To be able to understand and estimate the consequences of climate change it is urgent to analyse the development in vegetation cover. In this research we studied how vegetation cover has changed in Tindfjöll mountain, Iceland with focus on the effect of topography; elevation, aspect, and slope. Two 10 km2 transects were selected at two different aspects of the mountain, one south facing and the other west facing and at an elevation from 300 meters above sea level ascending to 1300 meters. The vegetation cover of the transects was inspected and the changes estimated between the years 2004 and 2019 (15 years interval). The results show that climate warming is already 1°C between the years 2006 and 2019. The results show further that the warming is already causing changes in vegetation cover of the area. The changes are mostly an increase in vegetation cover, however different according to aspect of the mountain. Most changes are found in south facing slopes above 700 meters altitude. Interestingly, the south facing slopes below 700 meters are showing less vegetation in 2019 than in 2004 most likely due to less snow cover during winter. Warmer climate is moving vegetation line towards higher altitude (150 m). The west facing transect showed more moderate changes with small increases in vegetation cover. Glacier is decreasing for both aspects, a consequence of climate warming. The changes in Tindfjöll vegetation cover might reflect general changes in the arctic environment but it is important to continue research in this regard. It is therefore important to continue monitoring of the development in the High Latitudes to support future policy making and planning. Keywords: Envi

Hydrological models are often used to evaluate future changes in streamflow. Despite the strong aware- ness of non-stationarity in hydrological system characteristics, model parameters are often assumed stationary and obtained through calibration on past conditions. The representation of system change in hydrological models is challenging, as a lot of uncertainty abounds on changes in future climate and ecosystems. However, it is shown that ecosystems co-evolve with the prevailing climate conditions. There is increasing evidence that vegetation adapts its root zone storage capacity - considered as a key parameter in any hydrological model - corresponding to moisture deficits in the root zone. This is the main assumption underlying the water balance method. In combination with long-term water budget estimates from the Budyko framework, this method has the potential to meaningfully describe future climate-vegetation interactions within the context of process-based hydrological models. Accordingly, this study provides an exploratory analysis for six catchments in the Austrian Alps to in- vestigate future changes in root zone storage capacity and their impact on modelled streamflow in the past and under two emission scenarios in the future. Our findings show that, although parameter ranges of the root zone storage capacity significantly narrow-down for climate-based estimates, modelling performance on past streamflow is similar when using the calibrated and climate-based parameter sets. Following climate projections from 14 cli- mate models, adaptive climate-based parameter estimates are predicted to increase by 10-100% in all catchments in the future. However, little to no dissimilarity in modelled future streamflow is found when adaptation in root zone storage capacity is included in the hydrological model. Modelled differences in annual mean, maximum, and minimum flows remain within 5%, with slight increases for monthly streamflow and runoff coefficients. Thereby, li, Masters degree in Water Management and Environmental Engineering, Water Management, Civil Engineering | Environmental Engineering

We performed high-resolution snow height measurements using drone-based lidar over two 0.5 km long areas near the community of Umiujaq, in Tasiapik valley. The North site is centered around (N:56.5684°; W:76.4895°, elevation 122 m) and the South site around (N:56.5594°; W:76.4816°, elevation 133 m). A snow-free survey was performed on 28-29 September 2017 and a snow survey on 25-26 April 2018. We produced 3 cm digital terrain and digital surface models (DTM and DSM) from the lidar cloud points for each site for both lidar campaigns.

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collec-tion of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215). Résumé Les observations des changements dans la phénologie ont fourni certains des signaux les plus forts des effets du changement climatique sur les écosystèmes terrestres. L’expérience internationale sur la toundra ITEX (International Tundra Experiment), lancée au début des années 1990, a établi un protocole commun pour mesurer la phénologie des plantes dans les zones d’étude de la toundra à travers le monde. Aujourd’hui, cette précieuse collection de mesures phénologiques décrit les réponses des plantes des régions les plus froides de notre planète aux changements expérimentaux et ambiants de température au cours des dernières décennies. La base de données contient 150 434 observations phénologiques de 278 espèces de plantes prises dans 28 zones d’étude sur des périodes allant de 1 à 26 ans. Les auteurs décrivent ici l’ensemble des données afin d’accroître la visibilité et l’utilisat

Many studies have demonstrated significant alterations in the species composition of grasslands in Central Europe over the past decades due to multiple drivers of anthropogenic environmental change. Most such studies deal with dry, acidic, wet or alpine grassland types, while little is known about changes in mesic grasslands, particularly in urban areas. To investigate the effects of anthropogenic environmental change on such grasslands, we resurveyed a selection of plots in the city of Zurich (Switzerland) approximately 25 years after their original recording. First, we checked whether 241 ex-tensively used mesic grasslands (belonging to the Arrhenatheretalia elatioris) in the city were still grasslands, and whether their management had changed. Then we resurveyed a representative subset of 30 quasi-permanent plots of 50 m². We tested whether biodiversity metrics, mean ecological indicator values, community weighted means (CWMs) of functional traits or the presence of individual vascular plant species had changed. We found that 15% of the original grasslands had been lost due to changes in land use during this period. Of the remaining grasslands, most of the former meadows were still mown, while many of the former pastures had been transformed into meadows. Measures of alpha diversity had not changed significantly for the 30 plots. However, species composition now indicated nutrient poorer, less base-rich and less ruderal site conditions, while CWMs of specific leaf area (SLA) had decreased and that of seed mass increased. In stands that were managed by mowing in both periods there was practically no change, while there was a pronounced change in those that had been trans-formed from grazing to mowing. In general, five species showed a significant increase and 16 species a significant decrease in frequency, with no obvious ecological difference between winners and losers. Alien species were rare in both periods and showed hardly any trend, except Veronica persica

Ongoing climate warming affects vegetation in multiple ways, although it is difficult to distinguish its influence from other drivers of vegetation change. We studied how forest vegetation in the Albiskette (canton of Zurich, Switzerland), mainly dominated by European beech (Fagus sylvatica), changed from 1993 to 2019, while the mean temperature rose by 1.5 °C. To investigate how species richness and vegetation composition had changed during these 26 years, we resampled 46 permanently marked nested-plot series (30 m², 200 m² and 500 m²). Using paired t-tests, we analysed changes in biodiversity metrics and mean ecological indicator values and related the quantified changes to poten-tial explanatory variables via linear regressions. Using the z-values from the power law species-area relationships, we analysed potential changes in beta diversity. Both species richness and herb layer cover significantly decreased from 1993 to 2019 across the three grain sizes. The z-values for the transi-tion from 200 m² to 500 m² were significantly higher in 2019. The mean light value in the 500-m2 plots in 2019 was also significantly lower than in 1993. Species richness, Shannon diversity and Shannon evenness decreased with increasing tree layer cover. With increasing herb layer cover, species richness increased in the 30-m2 plots and the relative species loss decreased in the 30-m2 and 200-m2 plots. The relationship between species loss and increased canopy cover confirmed that light availability acts as an important driver for species richness. Whether the loss in both herb cover and species is also related to recent summer drought events such as 2018 can only be clarified through further resurveys. Decreases in z-values indicate lower beta diversity and more homogenous vegetation in 2019. The decrease in species richness was more pronounced in the 500-m2 plots than in the smaller plots. In some cases, explanatory variables had an effect on the change in species diversity only in t

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kropp, H., Loranty, M. M., Natali, S. M., Kholodov, A. L., Rocha, A., V., Myers-Smith, I., Abbot, B. W., Abermann, J., Blanc-Betes, E., Blok, D., Blume-Werry, G., Boike, J., Breen, A. L., Cahoon, S. M. P., Christiansen, C. T., Douglas, T. A., Epstein, H. E., Frost, G., V., Goeckede, M., Hoye, T. T., Mamet, S. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Olefeldt, D., Phoenix, G. K., Salmon, V. G., Sannel, A. B. K., Smith, S. L., Sonnentag, O., Vaughn, L. S., Williams, M., Elberling, B., Gough, L., Hjort, J., Lafleur, P. M., Euskirchen, E. S., Heijmans, M. M. P. D., Humphreys, E. R., Iwata, H., Jones, B. M., Jorgenson, M. T., Gruenberg, I., Kim, Y., Laundre, J., Mauritz, M., Michelsen, A., Schaepman-Strub, G., Tape, K. D., Ueyama, M., Lee, B., Langley, K., & Lund, M. Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across arctic and boreal ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), (2021): 015001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc994., Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw., We thank G Peter Kershaw, LeeAnn Fishback, Cathy Wilson, and Coleen Iversen for assistance in collection of data. We thank the Permafrost Carbon Network for support and organization of the data synthesis. We thank Vladimir Romanovsky for his feedback and contribution of publicly available data. This project was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant No. 1417745 to M L, Grant No. 1417700 to S M N, Grant No. 1417908 to A K, Grant No. 1556772 to A R, Grant No. 1637459 to L G, Grant No. 1636476 and Grant No. 1503912 to E S E, Grant No. 1806213 to B M J, Grant No. 1833056 to K D T), UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant No. NE/M016323/1 to I H M S, Grant No. NE/K00025X/1 to G K P, Grant No. NE/K000292/1 to M W), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research (to P L, I H M S, Grant No. RGPIN-2016-04688 to D O), Council of Canada, Canadian Graduate Scholarship to (I H M -S), Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme: ClimateBasis (to J A and K A), The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) project is supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the DOE Office of Science (to A L B), Engineer Research and Development Center Army Direct (6.1) Research Program and the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (projects RC-2110 and 18-1170 to T A D), United States Geological Survey (to E E S), Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS; Grant No. JPMXD1300000000) and ArCS II (Grant No. JPMXD1420318865) (to M U and H I), the Danish National Research Foundation (Grant No. CENPERM DNRF100 to B E), the Academy of Finland (Grant No. 315519), the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant Nos. NRF-2016M1A5A1901769; KOPRI-PN20081 to K Y and B Y L), Research Network for Geosciences in Berlin and Potsdam (to I G), the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. 140631 to G S S), the URPP Global Change and Biodiversity, University of Zurich (to G S S), the University of Alberta Northern Research Awards (to D O), and th

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kropp, H., Loranty, M. M., Natali, S. M., Kholodov, A. L., Rocha, A., V., Myers-Smith, I., Abbot, B. W., Abermann, J., Blanc-Betes, E., Blok, D., Blume-Werry, G., Boike, J., Breen, A. L., Cahoon, S. M. P., Christiansen, C. T., Douglas, T. A., Epstein, H. E., Frost, G., V., Goeckede, M., Hoye, T. T., Mamet, S. D., O'Donnell, J. A., Olefeldt, D., Phoenix, G. K., Salmon, V. G., Sannel, A. B. K., Smith, S. L., Sonnentag, O., Vaughn, L. S., Williams, M., Elberling, B., Gough, L., Hjort, J., Lafleur, P. M., Euskirchen, E. S., Heijmans, M. M. P. D., Humphreys, E. R., Iwata, H., Jones, B. M., Jorgenson, M. T., Gruenberg, I., Kim, Y., Laundre, J., Mauritz, M., Michelsen, A., Schaepman-Strub, G., Tape, K. D., Ueyama, M., Lee, B., Langley, K., & Lund, M. Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across arctic and boreal ecosystems. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), (2021): 015001. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc994., Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw., We thank G Peter Kershaw, LeeAnn Fishback, Cathy Wilson, and Coleen Iversen for assistance in collection of data. We thank the Permafrost Carbon Network for support and organization of the data synthesis. We thank Vladimir Romanovsky for his feedback and contribution of publicly available data. This project was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant No. 1417745 to M L, Grant No. 1417700 to S M N, Grant No. 1417908 to A K, Grant No. 1556772 to A R, Grant No. 1637459 to L G, Grant No. 1636476 and Grant No. 1503912 to E S E, Grant No. 1806213 to B M J, Grant No. 1833056 to K D T), UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant No. NE/M016323/1 to I H M S, Grant No. NE/K00025X/1 to G K P, Grant No. NE/K000292/1 to M W), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research (to P L, I H M S, Grant No. RGPIN-2016-04688 to D O), Council of Canada, Canadian Graduate Scholarship to (I H M -S), Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme: ClimateBasis (to J A and K A), The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) project is supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research in the DOE Office of Science (to A L B), Engineer Research and Development Center Army Direct (6.1) Research Program and the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (projects RC-2110 and 18-1170 to T A D), United States Geological Survey (to E E S), Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS; Grant No. JPMXD1300000000) and ArCS II (Grant No. JPMXD1420318865) (to M U and H I), the Danish National Research Foundation (Grant No. CENPERM DNRF100 to B E), the Academy of Finland (Grant No. 315519), the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant Nos. NRF-2016M1A5A1901769; KOPRI-PN20081 to K Y and B Y L), Research Network for Geosciences in Berlin and Potsdam (to I G), the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant No. 140631 to G S S), the URPP Global Change and Biodiversity, University of Zurich (to G S S), the University of Alberta Northern Research Awards (to D O), and th

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.

Overabundance of wild ungulates, especially exotic species, is a major threat to several ecosystems worldwide. While the response of forest vegetation to high density of herbivores has been well studied, far less is known about peatland vegetation. In this paper, we assessed the long term impact of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) on plant communities of ombrotrophic (bog) and minerotrophic (fen) peatlands in eastern North America. Vegetation of five peatlands that have experienced high deer densities for at least 75 years was compared with that of five peatlands situated at proximity but on deer-free islands. We investigated deer impacts on plant species composition and cover, shrub height and cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus) fruit/flower production and morphology. In bogs, white-tailed deer had no long-term impact on plant species assemblages, but reduced lichen cover and increased sedges and grasses cover as well as the surface area of bare peat. On the other hand, the floristic composition of fens differed significantly between sites where deer were present or absent. Plant diversity was greater in undisturbed fens than in disturbed fens, especially for shrubs, sedges and liverworts. No detrimental effects of browsing on shrub height were observed. Conversely, deer browsing seemed to have deleterious impacts on cloudberry fruit/flower production as well as on the number of leaves per individual. Overall, our results suggest that white-tailed deer had some important impacts on the vegetation of peatlands that could be harmful for the long-term conservation of peatland plant diversity.

Many studies have demonstrated significant alterations in the species composition of grasslands in Central Europe over the past decades due to multiple drivers of anthropogenic environmental change. Most such studies deal with dry, acidic, wet or alpine grassland types, while little is known about changes in mesic grasslands, particularly in urban areas. To investigate the effects of anthropogenic environmental change on such grasslands, we resurveyed a selection of plots in the city of Zurich (Switzerland) approximately 25 years after their original recording. First, we checked whether 241 ex-tensively used mesic grasslands (belonging to the Arrhenatheretalia elatioris) in the city were still grasslands, and whether their management had changed. Then we resurveyed a representative subset of 30 quasi-permanent plots of 50 m². We tested whether biodiversity metrics, mean ecological indicator values, community weighted means (CWMs) of functional traits or the presence of individual vascular plant species had changed. We found that 15% of the original grasslands had been lost due to changes in land use during this period. Of the remaining grasslands, most of the former meadows were still mown, while many of the former pastures had been transformed into meadows. Measures of alpha diversity had not changed significantly for the 30 plots. However, species composition now indicated nutrient poorer, less base-rich and less ruderal site conditions, while CWMs of specific leaf area (SLA) had decreased and that of seed mass increased. In stands that were managed by mowing in both periods there was practically no change, while there was a pronounced change in those that had been trans-formed from grazing to mowing. In general, five species showed a significant increase and 16 species a significant decrease in frequency, with no obvious ecological difference between winners and losers. Alien species were rare in both periods and showed hardly any trend, except Veronica persica

Ongoing climate warming affects vegetation in multiple ways, although it is difficult to distinguish its influence from other drivers of vegetation change. We studied how forest vegetation in the Albiskette (canton of Zurich, Switzerland), mainly dominated by European beech (Fagus sylvatica), changed from 1993 to 2019, while the mean temperature rose by 1.5 °C. To investigate how species richness and vegetation composition had changed during these 26 years, we resampled 46 permanently marked nested-plot series (30 m², 200 m² and 500 m²). Using paired t-tests, we analysed changes in biodiversity metrics and mean ecological indicator values and related the quantified changes to poten-tial explanatory variables via linear regressions. Using the z-values from the power law species-area relationships, we analysed potential changes in beta diversity. Both species richness and herb layer cover significantly decreased from 1993 to 2019 across the three grain sizes. The z-values for the transi-tion from 200 m² to 500 m² were significantly higher in 2019. The mean light value in the 500-m2 plots in 2019 was also significantly lower than in 1993. Species richness, Shannon diversity and Shannon evenness decreased with increasing tree layer cover. With increasing herb layer cover, species richness increased in the 30-m2 plots and the relative species loss decreased in the 30-m2 and 200-m2 plots. The relationship between species loss and increased canopy cover confirmed that light availability acts as an important driver for species richness. Whether the loss in both herb cover and species is also related to recent summer drought events such as 2018 can only be clarified through further resurveys. Decreases in z-values indicate lower beta diversity and more homogenous vegetation in 2019. The decrease in species richness was more pronounced in the 500-m2 plots than in the smaller plots. In some cases, explanatory variables had an effect on the change in species diversity only in t

Questions: Shrub vegetation has been expanding across much of the rapidly changing Arctic. Yet, there is still uncertainty about the underlying drivers of shrub community composition. Here, we use extensive vegetation surveys and a trait-based approach to answer the following questions: which abiotic and biotic factors explain abundance of shrub species and functional groups in the Arctic tundra, and can we interpret these relationships using plant traits related to resource acquisition?. Location: Nuup Kangerlua (Godthåbsfjord), western Greenland. Methods: We tested the power of nine climatic, topographic and biotic variables to explain the abundances of nine shrub species using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework. Results: We found highly variable responses among species and functional groups to both abiotic and biotic environmental variation. The overall most important abiotic explanatory variable was annual air temperature variability, which was highly correlated with winter minimum air temperature. Functional community composition and graminoid abundance were the most influential biotic factors. While we did not find systematic patterns between shrub abundances and abiotic variables with regard to resource acquisition traits, these traits did explain relationships between shrub abundances and biotic variables. Conclusions: Shrub abundance responses to abiotic variables rarely aligned with expectations based on plants’ resource acquisition traits or functional groups. Our results, therefore, indicate that approaches exclusively based on resource acquisition traits might be limited in their ability to predict abundances of individual groups and species, particularly in response to complex abiotic environments. However, integrating community theory and functional trait concepts represents a promising pathway to better predict biotic interactions and ultimately responses of dominant shrub vegetation to rapid environmental changes across the arctic tundra

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.

Transitions from grassland to shrubland are synonymous with desertification in many arid rangeland systems. Traditional desertification models emphasize abiotic feedbacks that modify the physical environment in ways that promote shrub proliferation and impede grass survival. Inherent in this perspective is the assumption that biotic interactions between grasses and shrubs have little bearing on state transition dynamics. Furthermore, the extent to which density-dependent interactions among shrubs might determine the magnitude and pattern of their cover is unknown. I addressed these assumptions and knowledge gaps over 4 years using field-based selective removal experiments with shrubs (Prosopis glandulosa) and grasses (Bouteloua eriopoda) at the Jornada Experimental Range and long-term ecological research (LTER) site in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. Shrub-on-Shrub Interactions: Intraspecific interactions between shrubs were not evident in any year, supporting the assumption that abiotic variables, rather than competitive interactions, constrain maximum shrub cover. Grass-on-Shrub Interactions: In years with above-average growing season precipitation, ANPP of small shrubs increased when grasses were removed, a result not evident in dry years or for larger shrubs. Grasses may therefore slow the rate at which shrubs attain a physical stature that can modify the physical environment in self-promoting ways. Shrub-on-Grass Interactions: Following consecutive years of above-average precipitation, grass ANPP responded positively to shrub removal, and allocation to vegetative reproduction and grass patch area increased. These results demonstrate that biotic interference by shrubs upon grasses can reinforce and magnify abiotic feedbacks during grassland–shrubland transitions. A simple model that accounts for total shrub neighborhood canopy area explained as much variance in grass ANPP reductions as did more complex models that include shrub proximity, volume, and/or grass pa

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.

vorgelegt von Maximilian Lübben, in englischer Sprache, Universität Innsbruck, Masterarbeit, 2020, (VLID)5271058

Vegetation types in the annual rangelands include annual-dominated non-native grasslands, native-dominated grasslands, oak woodlands, chaparral, and coastal scrub. The ecosystem services, or benefits, that humans obtain from each vegetation type change as the vegetation type changes and need to be assessed accordingly. This publication describes the dominant and common species in each vegetation type, the vegetation changes and change agents that are commonly recognized, and an approach to evaluating ecosystem services.

Higher and denser vegetation have been recorded as a response to recent climate change in alpine regions. The aim of this study was to determine if the vegetation have changed in the Scandes, by analyzing monitoring data collected between 2008-2019. The vegetation was assessed in 540 permanent study plots distributed across a gradient from the treeline to the summit in 10 mountains in the Scandes. Each mountain was inventoried twice with five years in between. I analyzed changes in abundance and maximum altitudinal range between inventories and discuss the detected changes in relation to changes in herbivore density and climate. 9 out of 37 analyzed species increased in abundance between the two inventories and no species decreased. The area has experienced warming during the last decades, but no changes in precipitation and herbivory. Most of the increasing species also have traits and distributions that would predict them to be thermophilic in these locations. I thus conclude that warming temperatures are the most likely driver of the observed changes. The observed expansion of warm-adapted species in the Scandes are expected to have a negative impact on cold-adapted species and may lead to a decrease of arctic and alpine biota in the long run. My analysis show that the analyzed monitoring data can detect vegetation changes after only five years and should therefore be a powerful tool to detect changes in a longer time span. I conclude that it would be valuable to maintain the current monitoring scheme in the future.

Current climate change characterized by increasing temperature has led to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme droughts that have more prolonged and profound ecohydrological and social impacts. By paying attention to the hydrological change before and after extreme drought and the patterns of drought recovery of ecohydrological system, it is possible to better understand the consequences of extreme drought on ecohydrological system. Both climate change and landscape change have an influence on catchment hydrological condition. The drought-related hydrological change is, therefore, the combination of changes induced by these two drivers. To further explore extreme drought impacts and the root causes of hydrological change under extreme drought events, it is necessary to separate the impact of drought-related climate change from the impact of landscape change. This study aims to characterize the variations in hydroclimatic conditions before and after extreme drought by studying the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space, explore post-drought ecohydrological system recovery, and further separate and investigate the effects of climate and landscape change on catchment hydrological conditions. Monthly SPEI at a 12-month timescale was used to characterize and define the extreme drought events. The Budyko framework was applied to study the hydroclimatic changes of 63 basins in the United States induced by extreme drought events from 1990 to 2013 by quantifying the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space. The climate effect on precipitation partitioning was distinguished from the landscape effect that is mainly related to vegetation response to extreme drought events. The contributions of precipitation and potential evaporation were quantified to further understand the effect of climate change which is caused by alterations of these climatic variables. To understand the effect of drought-related vegetation change on catchment precipitation partitioning, ND, Water Management

Vegetation types in the annual rangelands include annual-dominated non-native grasslands, native-dominated grasslands, oak woodlands, chaparral, and coastal scrub. The ecosystem services, or benefits, that humans obtain from each vegetation type change as the vegetation type changes and need to be assessed accordingly. This publication describes the dominant and common species in each vegetation type, the vegetation changes and change agents that are commonly recognized, and an approach to evaluating ecosystem services.

Chaparral shrubs in southern California may be vulnerable to frequent fire and severe drought. Drought may diminish postfire recovery or worsen impact of short-interval fires. Field-based studies have not shown the extent and magnitude of drought effects on recovery, which may vary among chaparral types and climatic zones. We tracked regional patterns of shrub cover based on June-solstice Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index series, compared between the periods 1984-1989 and 2014-2018. High spatial resolution ortho-imagery was used to map shrub cover in distributed sample plots, to empirically constrain the Landsat-based estimates of mature-stage lateral canopy recovery. We evaluated precipitation, climatic water deficit (CWD), and Palmer Drought Severity Index in summer and wet seasons preceding and following fire, as regional predictors of recovery in 982 locations between the Pacific Coast and inland deserts. Wet-season CWD was the strongest drought-metric predictor of recovery, contributing 34-43 % of explanatory power in multivariate regressions (R2 =0.16-0.42). Limited recovery linked to drought was most prevalent in transmontane chamise chaparral; impacts were minor in montane areas, and in mixed and montane chaparral types. Elevation was correlated negatively to recovery of transmontane chamise; this may imply acute drought sensitivity in resprouts which predominate seedlings at higher elevations. Landsat Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (sensitive to live-fuel moisture) was evaluated as a landscape-scale predictor of recovery and explained the greatest amount of variance in a multivariate regression (R2 = 0.53). We find that drought severity was more closely related to recovery differences among twice-burned sites than was fire-return interval. Summarily, drought has a major role in long-term shrub cover reduction within xeric chaparral ecotones bounding the Mojave Desert and Colorado Desert, likely in tandem with other global change stress

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (>40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.

Current climate change characterized by increasing temperature has led to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme droughts that have more prolonged and profound ecohydrological and social impacts. By paying attention to the hydrological change before and after extreme drought and the patterns of drought recovery of ecohydrological system, it is possible to better understand the consequences of extreme drought on ecohydrological system. Both climate change and landscape change have an influence on catchment hydrological condition. The drought-related hydrological change is, therefore, the combination of changes induced by these two drivers. To further explore extreme drought impacts and the root causes of hydrological change under extreme drought events, it is necessary to separate the impact of drought-related climate change from the impact of landscape change. This study aims to characterize the variations in hydroclimatic conditions before and after extreme drought by studying the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space, explore post-drought ecohydrological system recovery, and further separate and investigate the effects of climate and landscape change on catchment hydrological conditions. Monthly SPEI at a 12-month timescale was used to characterize and define the extreme drought events. The Budyko framework was applied to study the hydroclimatic changes of 63 basins in the United States induced by extreme drought events from 1990 to 2013 by quantifying the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space. The climate effect on precipitation partitioning was distinguished from the landscape effect that is mainly related to vegetation response to extreme drought events. The contributions of precipitation and potential evaporation were quantified to further understand the effect of climate change which is caused by alterations of these climatic variables. To understand the effect of drought-related vegetation change on catchment precipitation partitioning, ND, Water Management

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are released from biogenic sources in a temperature-dependent manner. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems are expected to greatly increase their VOC emissions with ongoing climate warming, which is proceeding at twice the rate of global temperature rise. Here, we show that ongoing warming has strong, increasing effects on Arctic VOC emissions. Using a combination of statistical modeling on data from several warming experiments in the Arctic tundra and dynamic ecosystem modeling, we separate the impacts of temperature and soil moisture into direct effects and indirect effects through vegetation composition and biomass alterations. The indirect effects of warming on VOC emissions were significant but smaller than the direct effects, during the 14-y model simulation period. Furthermore, vegetation changes also cause shifts in the chemical speciation of emissions. Both direct and indirect effects result in large geographic differences in VOC emission responses in the warming Arctic, depending on the local vegetation cover and the climate dynamics. Our results outline complex links between local climate, vegetation, and ecosystem-atmosphere interactions, with likely local-to-regional impacts on the atmospheric composition.

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are released from biogenic sources in a temperature-dependent manner. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems are expected to greatly increase their VOC emissions with ongoing climate warming, which is proceeding at twice the rate of global temperature rise. Here, we show that ongoing warming has strong, increasing effects on Arctic VOC emissions. Using a combination of statistical modeling on data from several warming experiments in the Arctic tundra and dynamic ecosystem modeling, we separate the impacts of temperature and soil moisture into direct effects and indirect effects through vegetation composition and biomass alterations. The indirect effects of warming on VOC emissions were significant but smaller than the direct effects, during the 14-y model simulation period. Furthermore, vegetation changes also cause shifts in the chemical speciation of emissions. Both direct and indirect effects result in large geographic differences in VOC emission responses in the warming Arctic, depending on the local vegetation cover and the climate dynamics. Our results outline complex links between local climate, vegetation, and ecosystem-atmosphere interactions, with likely local-to-regional impacts on the atmospheric composition.

© 2020 Elsevier B.V. Australia as a continent represents a semi-arid environment that is generally water-limited. Changes in rainfall pattern will inevitably occur due to rising temperatures caused by climate change, which has a direct impact on the distribution of Australia's vegetation (green cover). As variability in rainfall continues to increase, i.e., in frequency and/or magnitude, due to climate change, extreme climate events such as droughts are predicted to become more pervasive and severe that will have an adverse effect on vegetation. This study investigates the effects of extreme climate on Australia's green cover during 2003–2018 for the end of rainy seasons of April and October in the northern and southern parts, respectively, to (i) determine the state of vegetation and its changes, (ii) identify “hotspots”, i.e., regions that constantly experienced statistically significant decrease in NDVI, and (iii), relate changes in the identified hotspots to GRACE-hydrological changes. These are achieved through the exploitation of the statistical tools of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Mann-Kendel Test on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) hydrological products on the one hand, and the utilization of Australia's rainfall product and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-NDVI) used here with its native spatial resolution of 0.002413∘ × 0.002413∘ on the other hand. Differences between 3-year intervals from 2003 to 2018 for both April and October datasets are used to quantify vegetation variations. Through area change analysis, the vegetation differences (2003–2018) indicate that April exhibited larger increase (13.77% of total vegetation area) than decrease (7.83%) compared to October, which experienced slightly larger decrease (9.41%) than increase (8.71%). South Australia and Western Australia emerge as “hotspots” in which vegetation statistically decreased in October, with no noticeable

Aim Plant functional groups are widely used in community ecology and earth system modelling to describe trait variation within and across plant communities. However, this approach rests on the assumption that functional groups explain a large proportion of trait variation among species. We test whether four commonly used plant functional groups represent variation in six ecologically important plant traits. Location Tundra biome. Time period Data collected between 1964 and 2016. Major taxa studied 295 tundra vascular plant species. Methods We compiled a database of six plant traits (plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, seed mass) for tundra species. We examined the variation in species-level trait expression explained by four traditional functional groups (evergreen shrubs, deciduous shrubs, graminoids, forbs), and whether variation explained was dependent upon the traits included in analysis. We further compared the explanatory power and species composition of functional groups to alternative classifications generated using post hoc clustering of species-level traits. Results Traditional functional groups explained significant differences in trait expression, particularly amongst traits associated with resource economics, which were consistent across sites and at the biome scale. However, functional groups explained 19% of overall trait variation and poorly represented differences in traits associated with plant size. Post hoc classification of species did not correspond well with traditional functional groups, and explained twice as much variation in species-level trait expression. Main conclusions Traditional functional groups only coarsely represent variation in well-measured traits within tundra plant communities, and better explain resource economic traits than size-related traits. We recommend caution when using functional group approaches to predict tundra vegetation change, or ecosystem functions rela