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Background: Cytopathological evaluation of thyroid fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) specimens can fail to raise preoperative suspicion of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). The Afirma RNA-sequencing MTC classifier identifies MTC among FNA samples that are cytologically indeterminate, suspicious, or malignant (Bethesda categories III-VI). In this study we report the development and clinical performance of this MTC classifier. Methods: Algorithm training was performed with a set of 483 FNAB specimens (21 MTC and 462 non-MTC). A support vector machine classifier was developed using 108 differentially expressed genes, which includes the 5 genes in the prior Afirma microarray-based MTC cassette. Results: The final MTC classifier was blindly tested on 211 preoperative FNAB specimens with subsequent surgical pathology, including 21 MTC and 190 non-MTC specimens from benign and malignant thyroid nodules independent from those used in training. The classifier had 100% sensitivity (21/21 MTC FNAB specimens correctly called positive; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 83.9-100%) and 100% specificity (190/190 non-MTC FNAs correctly called negative; CI = 98.1-100%). All positive samples had pathological confirmation of MTC, while all negative samples were negative for MTC on surgical pathology. Conclusions: The RNA-sequencing MTC classifier accurately identified MTC from preoperative thyroid nodule FNAB specimens in an independent validation cohort. This identification may facilitate an MTC-specific preoperative evaluation and resulting treatment.

BackgroundIdentification of Hürthle cell cancers by non-operative fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) of thyroid nodules is challenging. Resultingly, non-cancerous Hürthle lesions were conventionally distinguished from Hürthle cell cancers by histopathological examination of tissue following surgical resection. Reliance on histopathological evaluation requires patients to undergo surgery to obtain a diagnosis despite most being non-cancerous. It is highly desirable to avoid surgery and to provide accurate classification of benignity versus malignancy from FNAB preoperatively. In our first-generation algorithm, Gene Expression Classifier (GEC), we achieved this goal by using machine learning (ML) on gene expression features. The classifier is sensitive, but not specific due in part to the presence of non-neoplastic benign Hürthle cells in many FNAB.ResultsWe sought to overcome this low-specificity limitation by expanding the feature set for ML using next-generation whole transcriptome RNA sequencing and called the improved algorithm the Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC). The Hürthle identification leverages mitochondrial expression and we developed novel feature extraction mechanisms to measure chromosomal and genomic level loss-of-heterozygosity (LOH) for the algorithm. Additionally, we developed a multi-layered system of cascading classifiers to sequentially triage Hürthle cell-containing FNAB, including: 1. presence of Hürthle cells, 2. presence of neoplastic Hürthle cells, and 3. presence of benign Hürthle cells. The final Hürthle cell Index utilizes 1048 nuclear and mitochondrial genes; and Hürthle cell Neoplasm Index leverages LOH features as well as 2041 genes. Both indices are Support Vector Machine (SVM) based. The third classifier, the GSC Benign/Suspicious classifier, utilizes 1115 core genes and is an ensemble classifier incorporating 12 individual models.ConclusionsThe accurate algorithmic depiction of this complex biological system among Hürthle subt

BackgroundIdentification of Hürthle cell cancers by non-operative fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) of thyroid nodules is challenging. Resultingly, non-cancerous Hürthle lesions were conventionally distinguished from Hürthle cell cancers by histopathological examination of tissue following surgical resection. Reliance on histopathological evaluation requires patients to undergo surgery to obtain a diagnosis despite most being non-cancerous. It is highly desirable to avoid surgery and to provide accurate classification of benignity versus malignancy from FNAB preoperatively. In our first-generation algorithm, Gene Expression Classifier (GEC), we achieved this goal by using machine learning (ML) on gene expression features. The classifier is sensitive, but not specific due in part to the presence of non-neoplastic benign Hürthle cells in many FNAB.ResultsWe sought to overcome this low-specificity limitation by expanding the feature set for ML using next-generation whole transcriptome RNA sequencing and called the improved algorithm the Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC). The Hürthle identification leverages mitochondrial expression and we developed novel feature extraction mechanisms to measure chromosomal and genomic level loss-of-heterozygosity (LOH) for the algorithm. Additionally, we developed a multi-layered system of cascading classifiers to sequentially triage Hürthle cell-containing FNAB, including: 1. presence of Hürthle cells, 2. presence of neoplastic Hürthle cells, and 3. presence of benign Hürthle cells. The final Hürthle cell Index utilizes 1048 nuclear and mitochondrial genes; and Hürthle cell Neoplasm Index leverages LOH features as well as 2041 genes. Both indices are Support Vector Machine (SVM) based. The third classifier, the GSC Benign/Suspicious classifier, utilizes 1115 core genes and is an ensemble classifier incorporating 12 individual models.ConclusionsThe accurate algorithmic depiction of this complex biological system among Hürthle subt

Importance:Use of next-generation sequencing of RNA and machine learning algorithms can classify the risk of malignancy in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules to limit unnecessary diagnostic surgery. Objective:To measure the performance of a genomic sequencing classifier for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules. Design, Setting, and Participants:A blinded validation study was conducted on a set of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules collected by fine-needle aspiration biopsy between June 2009 and December 2010 from 49 academic and community centers in the United States. All patients underwent surgery without genomic information and were assigned a histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic information. There were 210 potentially eligible thyroid biopsy samples with Bethesda III or IV indeterminate cytopathology that constituted a cohort previously used to validate the gene expression classifier. Of these, 191 samples (91.0%) had adequate residual RNA for validation of the genomic sequencing classifier. Algorithm development and independent validation occurred between August 2016 and May 2017. Exposures:Thyroid nodule surgical histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic data. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary end point was measurement of genomic sequencing classifier sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values in biopsies from Bethesda III and IV nodules. The secondary end point was measurement of classifier performance in biopsies from Bethesda II, V, and VI nodules. Results:Of the 183 included patients, 142 (77.6%) were women, and the mean (range) age was 51.7 (22.0-85.0) years. The genomic sequencing classifier had a sensitivity of 91% (95% CI, 79-98) and a specificity of 68% (95% CI, 60-76). At 24% cancer prevalence, the negative predictive value was 96% (95% CI, 90-99) and the positive predictive value was 47% (95% CI, 36-58). Conclusions and Relevance:The genomi

ImportanceUse of next-generation sequencing of RNA and machine learning algorithms can classify the risk of malignancy in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules to limit unnecessary diagnostic surgery.ObjectiveTo measure the performance of a genomic sequencing classifier for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules.Design, setting, and participantsA blinded validation study was conducted on a set of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules collected by fine-needle aspiration biopsy between June 2009 and December 2010 from 49 academic and community centers in the United States. All patients underwent surgery without genomic information and were assigned a histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic information. There were 210 potentially eligible thyroid biopsy samples with Bethesda III or IV indeterminate cytopathology that constituted a cohort previously used to validate the gene expression classifier. Of these, 191 samples (91.0%) had adequate residual RNA for validation of the genomic sequencing classifier. Algorithm development and independent validation occurred between August 2016 and May 2017.ExposuresThyroid nodule surgical histopathology diagnosis by an expert panel blinded to all genomic data.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary end point was measurement of genomic sequencing classifier sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values in biopsies from Bethesda III and IV nodules. The secondary end point was measurement of classifier performance in biopsies from Bethesda II, V, and VI nodules.ResultsOf the 183 included patients, 142 (77.6%) were women, and the mean (range) age was 51.7 (22.0-85.0) years. The genomic sequencing classifier had a sensitivity of 91% (95% CI, 79-98) and a specificity of 68% (95% CI, 60-76). At 24% cancer prevalence, the negative predictive value was 96% (95% CI, 90-99) and the positive predictive value was 47% (95% CI, 36-58).Conclusions and relevanceThe genomic sequencing