Search

Your search keyword '"Tavoni, A."' showing total 410 results
Start Over Author "Tavoni, A." Database OAIster
410 results on '"Tavoni, A."'

1. Integrating evolutionary theory and social–ecological systems research to address the sustainability challenges of the Anthropocene

Author

Currie, Thomas E., Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff, Fogarty, Laurel, Schlüter, Maja, Folke, Carl, Haider, L. Jamila, Caniglia, Guido, Tavoni, Alessandro, Jansen, Raf E. V., Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter, Waring, Timothy M., Currie, Thomas E., Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff, Fogarty, Laurel, Schlüter, Maja, Folke, Carl, Haider, L. Jamila, Caniglia, Guido, Tavoni, Alessandro, Jansen, Raf E. V., Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter, and Waring, Timothy M.

Abstract

The rapid, human-induced changes in the Earth system during the Anthropocene present humanity with critical sustainability challenges. Social–ecological systems (SES) research provides multiple approaches for understanding the complex interactions between humans, social systems, and environments and how we might direct them towards healthier and more resilient futures. However, general theories of SES change have yet to be fully developed. Formal evolutionary theory has been applied as a dynamic theory of change of complex phenomena in biology and the social sciences, but rarely in SES research. In this paper, we explore the connections between both fields, hoping to foster collaboration. After sketching out the distinct intellectual traditions of SES research and evolutionary theory, we map some of their terminological and theoretical connections. We then provide examples of how evolutionary theory might be incorporated into SES research through the use of systems mapping to identify evolutionary processes in SES, the application of concepts from evolutionary developmental biology to understand the connections between systems changes and evolutionary changes, and how evolutionary thinking may help design interventions for beneficial change. Integrating evolutionary theory and SES research can lead to a better understanding of SES changes and positive interventions for a more sustainable Anthropocene.

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

2. Integrating evolutionary theory and social-ecological systems research to address the sustainability challenges of the Anthropocene.

Author

Fogarty, Laurel, Fogarty, Laurel, Schlüter, Maja, Folke, Carl, Haider, L, Caniglia, Guido, Tavoni, Alessandro, Jansen, Raf, Jørgensen, Peter, Waring, Timothy, Currie, Thomas, Borgerhoff Mulder, Monique, Fogarty, Laurel, Fogarty, Laurel, Schlüter, Maja, Folke, Carl, Haider, L, Caniglia, Guido, Tavoni, Alessandro, Jansen, Raf, Jørgensen, Peter, Waring, Timothy, Currie, Thomas, and Borgerhoff Mulder, Monique

Abstract

The rapid, human-induced changes in the Earth system during the Anthropocene present humanity with critical sustainability challenges. Social-ecological systems (SES) research provides multiple approaches for understanding the complex interactions between humans, social systems, and environments and how we might direct them towards healthier and more resilient futures. However, general theories of SES change have yet to be fully developed. Formal evolutionary theory has been applied as a dynamic theory of change of complex phenomena in biology and the social sciences, but rarely in SES research. In this paper, we explore the connections between both fields, hoping to foster collaboration. After sketching out the distinct intellectual traditions of SES research and evolutionary theory, we map some of their terminological and theoretical connections. We then provide examples of how evolutionary theory might be incorporated into SES research through the use of systems mapping to identify evolutionary processes in SES, the application of concepts from evolutionary developmental biology to understand the connections between systems changes and evolutionary changes, and how evolutionary thinking may help design interventions for beneficial change. Integrating evolutionary theory and SES research can lead to a better understanding of SES changes and positive interventions for a more sustainable Anthropocene. This article is part of the theme issue Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis.

Published
2024

3. Economic quantification of Loss and Damage funding needs

Author

Tavoni, M., Andreoni, P, Calcaterra, M., Calliari, E., Deubelli, T., Mechler, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Wenz, L., Tavoni, M., Andreoni, P, Calcaterra, M., Calliari, E., Deubelli, T., Mechler, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., and Wenz, L.

Abstract

A loss and damage (L&D) fund has been established to support particularly vulnerable developing countries. L&D funding needs, entitlements and necessary contributions can be quantified using climate economics coupled with historical responsibility principles; for the year 2025, total L&D funding needs are estimated to be US $395 [128–937] billion.

Published
2024
Full Text
View/download PDF

4. How to achieve a rapid, fair, and efficient transformation to net zero emissions. Policy findings from the NAVIGATE project

Author

Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., Zuber, S., Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., and Zuber, S.

Published
2023

5. Response diversity as a sustainability strategy

Author

Walker, Brian, Crépin, Anne-Sophie, Nyström, Magnus, Anderies, John M., Andersson, Erik, Elmqvist, Thomas, Queiroz, Cibele, Barrett, Scott, Bennett, Elena, Cardenas, Juan Camilo, Carpenter, Stephen R., Chapin III, F. Stuart, de Zeeuw, Aart, Fischer, Joern, Folke, Carl, Levin, Simon, Nyborg, Karine, Polasky, Stephen, Segerson, Kathleen, Seto, Karen C., Scheffer, Marten, Shogren, Jason F., Tavoni, Alessandro, van den Bergh, Jeroen, Weber, Elke U., Vincent, Jeffrey R., Walker, Brian, Crépin, Anne-Sophie, Nyström, Magnus, Anderies, John M., Andersson, Erik, Elmqvist, Thomas, Queiroz, Cibele, Barrett, Scott, Bennett, Elena, Cardenas, Juan Camilo, Carpenter, Stephen R., Chapin III, F. Stuart, de Zeeuw, Aart, Fischer, Joern, Folke, Carl, Levin, Simon, Nyborg, Karine, Polasky, Stephen, Segerson, Kathleen, Seto, Karen C., Scheffer, Marten, Shogren, Jason F., Tavoni, Alessandro, van den Bergh, Jeroen, Weber, Elke U., and Vincent, Jeffrey R.

Abstract

Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

6. How to achieve a rapid, fair, and efficient transformation to net zero emissions. Policy findings from the NAVIGATE project

Author

Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., Zuber, S., Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., and Zuber, S.

Published
2023

7. How to achieve a rapid, fair, and efficient transformation to net zero emissions. Policy findings from the NAVIGATE project

Author

Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., Zuber, S., Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., and Zuber, S.

Published
2023

8. How to achieve a rapid, fair, and efficient transformation to net zero emissions. Policy findings from the NAVIGATE project

Author

Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., Zuber, S., Kriegler, E., Strefler, J., Gulde, R., Angelkorte, G., Bauer, N., Baptista, L., Dessens, O., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., Fragkos, P., Fragiadakis, D., Giannousakis, A., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Humpenöder, F., Lefèvre, J., Mastrucci, A., Nawaz, A., Schaeffer, R., Tagomori, I., van Heerden, R., Pettifor, H., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D., Wilson, C., Yeh, S., and Zuber, S.

Published
2023

9. Response diversity as a sustainability strategy

Author

Walker, Brian, Crépin, Anne Sophie, Nyström, Magnus, Anderies, John M., Andersson, Erik, Elmqvist, Thomas, Queiroz, Cibele, Barrett, Scott, Bennett, Elena, Cardenas, Juan Camilo, Carpenter, Stephen R., Chapin, F. Stuart, de Zeeuw, Aart, Fischer, Joern, Folke, Carl, Levin, Simon, Nyborg, Karine, Polasky, Stephen, Segerson, Kathleen, Seto, Karen C., Scheffer, Marten, Shogren, Jason F., Tavoni, Alessandro, van den Bergh, Jeroen, Weber, Elke U., Vincent, Jeffrey R., Walker, Brian, Crépin, Anne Sophie, Nyström, Magnus, Anderies, John M., Andersson, Erik, Elmqvist, Thomas, Queiroz, Cibele, Barrett, Scott, Bennett, Elena, Cardenas, Juan Camilo, Carpenter, Stephen R., Chapin, F. Stuart, de Zeeuw, Aart, Fischer, Joern, Folke, Carl, Levin, Simon, Nyborg, Karine, Polasky, Stephen, Segerson, Kathleen, Seto, Karen C., Scheffer, Marten, Shogren, Jason F., Tavoni, Alessandro, van den Bergh, Jeroen, Weber, Elke U., and Vincent, Jeffrey R.

Abstract

Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.

Published
2023
Full Text
View/download PDF

10. Response diversity as a sustainability strategy

Author

Walker, Brian, Crépin, Anne Sophie, Nyström, Magnus, Anderies, John M., Andersson, Erik, Elmqvist, Thomas, Queiroz, Cibele, Barrett, Scott, Bennett, Elena, Cardenas, Juan Camilo, Carpenter, Stephen R., Chapin, F.S., de Zeeuw, Aart, Fischer, Joern, Folke, Carl, Levin, Simon, Nyborg, Karine, Polasky, Stephen, Segerson, Kathleen, Seto, Karen C., Scheffer, Marten, Shogren, Jason F., Tavoni, Alessandro, van den Bergh, Jeroen, Weber, Elke U., Vincent, Jeffrey R., Walker, Brian, Crépin, Anne Sophie, Nyström, Magnus, Anderies, John M., Andersson, Erik, Elmqvist, Thomas, Queiroz, Cibele, Barrett, Scott, Bennett, Elena, Cardenas, Juan Camilo, Carpenter, Stephen R., Chapin, F.S., de Zeeuw, Aart, Fischer, Joern, Folke, Carl, Levin, Simon, Nyborg, Karine, Polasky, Stephen, Segerson, Kathleen, Seto, Karen C., Scheffer, Marten, Shogren, Jason F., Tavoni, Alessandro, van den Bergh, Jeroen, Weber, Elke U., and Vincent, Jeffrey R.

Abstract

Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.

Published
2023

11. Governing Climate Geoengineering: Side Payments Are Not Enough

Author

Ghidoni, Riccardo, Abatayo, Anna, Bosetti, Valentina, Casari, Marco, Tavoni, Massimo, Ghidoni, Riccardo, Abatayo, Anna, Bosetti, Valentina, Casari, Marco, and Tavoni, Massimo

Abstract

Climate geoengineering might reduce the economic and ecological impacts of global warming. However, its governance is challenging: since climate preferences vary across countries, excessive climate geoengineering relative to the socially optimal level is a likely risk. Through a laboratory experiment on a public good-or-bad game, we study to what extent side payments can curb geoengineering efforts and restore efficiency. Although the availability of side payments is theoretically effective, its impact is modest in the experiment, especially in a multilateral setup. Replacing unstructured bilateral agreements with a structured framework improves outcomes.

Published
2023

12. Impact of COVID-19 and vaccination campaign on 1,755 systemic sclerosis patients during first three years of pandemic. Possible risks for individuals with impaired immunoreactivity to vaccine, ongoing immunomodulating treatments, and disease-related lung involvement during the next pandemic phase

Author

Ferri, C., Raimondo, V., Giuggioli, D., Gragnani, L., Lorini, S., Dagna, L., Bosello, Silvia Laura, Foti, R., Riccieri, V., Guiducci, S., Cuomo, G., Tavoni, A., De Angelis, R., Cacciapaglia, F., Zanatta, E., Cozzi, F., Murdaca, G., Cavazzana, I., Romeo, N., Codullo, V., Pellegrini, R., Varcasia, G., De Santis, M., Selmi, C., Abignano, G., Caminiti, M., L'Andolina, M., Olivo, D., Lubrano, E., Spinella, A., Lumetti, F., De Luca, G., Ruscitti, P., Urraro, T., Visentini, M., Bellando-Randone, S., Visalli, E., Testa, D., Sciascia, G., Masini, F., Pellegrino, G., Saccon, F., Balestri, E., Elia, G., Ferrari, S. M., Tonutti, A., Dall'Ara, F., Pagano Mariano, G., Pettiti, G., Zanframundo, G., Brittelli, R., Aiello, V., Dal Bosco, Y., Di Cola, I., Scorpiniti, D., Fusaro, E., Ferrari, T., Gigliotti, P., Campochiaro, C., Francioso, F., Iandoli, C., Caira, V., Zignego, A. L., D'Angelo, S., Franceschini, F., Matucci-Cerinic, M., Giacomelli, R., Doria, A., Santini, Stefano Angelo, Fallahi, P., Iannone, F., Antonelli, A., Bosello S. L. (ORCID:0000-0002-4837-447X), Santini S. A. (ORCID:0000-0003-1956-5899), Ferri, C., Raimondo, V., Giuggioli, D., Gragnani, L., Lorini, S., Dagna, L., Bosello, Silvia Laura, Foti, R., Riccieri, V., Guiducci, S., Cuomo, G., Tavoni, A., De Angelis, R., Cacciapaglia, F., Zanatta, E., Cozzi, F., Murdaca, G., Cavazzana, I., Romeo, N., Codullo, V., Pellegrini, R., Varcasia, G., De Santis, M., Selmi, C., Abignano, G., Caminiti, M., L'Andolina, M., Olivo, D., Lubrano, E., Spinella, A., Lumetti, F., De Luca, G., Ruscitti, P., Urraro, T., Visentini, M., Bellando-Randone, S., Visalli, E., Testa, D., Sciascia, G., Masini, F., Pellegrino, G., Saccon, F., Balestri, E., Elia, G., Ferrari, S. M., Tonutti, A., Dall'Ara, F., Pagano Mariano, G., Pettiti, G., Zanframundo, G., Brittelli, R., Aiello, V., Dal Bosco, Y., Di Cola, I., Scorpiniti, D., Fusaro, E., Ferrari, T., Gigliotti, P., Campochiaro, C., Francioso, F., Iandoli, C., Caira, V., Zignego, A. L., D'Angelo, S., Franceschini, F., Matucci-Cerinic, M., Giacomelli, R., Doria, A., Santini, Stefano Angelo, Fallahi, P., Iannone, F., Antonelli, A., Bosello S. L. (ORCID:0000-0002-4837-447X), and Santini S. A. (ORCID:0000-0003-1956-5899)

Abstract

Introduction: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic represents a serious challenge for ‘frail’ patients' populations with inflammatory autoimmune systemic diseases such as systemic sclerosis (SSc). We investigated the prevalence and severity of COVID-19, as well the effects of COVID-19 vaccination campaign in a large series of SSc patients followed for the entire period (first 38 months) of pandemic. Patients and method: This prospective survey study included 1755 unselected SSc patients (186 M, 1,569F; mean age 58.7 ± 13.4SD years, mean disease duration 8.8 ± 7.3SD years) recruited in part by telephone survey at 37 referral centers from February 2020 to April 2023. The following parameters were carefully evaluated: i. demographic, clinical, serological, and therapeutical features; ii. prevalence and severity of COVID-19; and iii. safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. Results: The prevalence of COVID-19 recorded during the whole pandemic was significantly higher compared to Italian general population (47.3 % vs 43.3 %, p < 0.000), as well the COVID-19-related mortality (1.91 % vs 0.72 %, p < 0.001). As regards the putative prognostic factors of worse outcome, COVID-19 positive patients with SSc-related interstitial lung involvement showed significantly higher percentage of COVID-19-related hospitalization compared to those without (5.85 % vs 1.73 %; p < 0.0001), as well as of mortality rate (2.01 % vs 0.4 %; p = 0.002). Over half of patients (56.3 %) received the first two plus one booster dose of vaccine; while a fourth dose was administered to 35.6 %, and only few of them (1.99 %) had five or more doses of vaccine. Of note, an impaired seroconversion was recorded in 25.6 % of individuals after the first 2 doses of vaccine, and in 8.4 % of patients also after the booster dose. Furthermore, the absence of T-cell immunoreactivity was observed in 3/7 patients tested by QuantiFERON® SARSCoV-2 Starter Set (Qiagen). The efficacy of vaccines, evalu

Published
2023

13. COVID-19 and Mixed Cryoglobulinemia Syndrome: Long-Term Survey Study on the Prevalence and Outcome, Vaccine Safety, and Immunogenicity

Author

Gragnani, L., Visentini, M., Lorini, S., Santini, Stefano Angelo, Lauletta, G., Mazzaro, C., Urraro, T., Quartuccio, L., Cacciapaglia, F., Ruscitti, P., Tavoni, A., Marri, S., Cusano, G., Petraccia, L., Naclerio, C., Treppo, E., del Frate, G., Di Cola, I., Raimondo, V., Scorpiniti, D., Monti, M., Puccetti, L., Elia, G., Fallahi, P., Basili, S., Scarpato, S., Iannone, F., Casato, M., Antonelli, A., Zignego, A. L., Ferri, C., Santini S. A. (ORCID:0000-0003-1956-5899), Gragnani, L., Visentini, M., Lorini, S., Santini, Stefano Angelo, Lauletta, G., Mazzaro, C., Urraro, T., Quartuccio, L., Cacciapaglia, F., Ruscitti, P., Tavoni, A., Marri, S., Cusano, G., Petraccia, L., Naclerio, C., Treppo, E., del Frate, G., Di Cola, I., Raimondo, V., Scorpiniti, D., Monti, M., Puccetti, L., Elia, G., Fallahi, P., Basili, S., Scarpato, S., Iannone, F., Casato, M., Antonelli, A., Zignego, A. L., Ferri, C., and Santini S. A. (ORCID:0000-0003-1956-5899)

Abstract

Purpose: Mixed cryoglobulinemia syndrome (MCs) is a rare immunoproliferative systemic disorder with cutaneous and multiple organ involvement. Our multicenter survey study aimed to investigate the prevalence and outcome of COVID-19 and the safety and immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines in a large MCs series. Methods: The survey included 430 unselected MCs patients (130 M, 300 F; mean age 70 ± 10.96 years) consecutively collected at 11 Italian referral centers. Disease classification, clinico-serological assessment, COVID-19 tests, and vaccination immunogenicity were carried out according to current methodologies. Results: A significantly higher prevalence of COVID-19 was found in MCs patients compared to Italian general population (11.9% vs 8.0%, p < 0.005), and the use of immunomodulators was associated to a higher risk to get infected (p = 0.0166). Moreover, higher mortality rate was recorded in MCs with COVID-19 compared to those without (p < 0.01). Patients’ older age (≥ 60 years) correlated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. The 87% of patients underwent vaccination and 50% a booster dose. Of note, vaccine-related disease flares/worsening were significantly less frequent than those associated to COVID-19 (p = 0.0012). Impaired vaccination immunogenicity was observed in MCs patients compared to controls either after the first vaccination (p = 0.0039) and also after the booster dose (p = 0.05). Finally, some immunomodulators, namely, rituximab and glucocorticoids, hampered the vaccine-induced immunogenicity (p = 0.029). Conclusions: The present survey revealed an increased prevalence and morbidity of COVID-19 in MCs patients, as well an impaired immunogenicity even after booster vaccination with high rate of no response. Therefore, MCs can be included among frail populations at high risk of infection and severe COVID-19 manifestations, suggesting the need of a close monitoring and specific preventive/therapeutical measures during the ongoing pandemic.

Published
2023

14. 18-FDG PET for large-vessel vasculitis diagnosis and follow-up

Author

Angelotti, F, Capecchi, R, Giorgetti, A, Erba, P, Genovesi, D, Emdin, M, Barison, A, Manca, L, Rocchi, V, Migliorini, P, Tavoni, A, Angelotti F., Capecchi R., Giorgetti A., Erba P. A., Genovesi D., Emdin M., Barison A., Manca L., Rocchi V., Migliorini P., Tavoni A., Angelotti, F, Capecchi, R, Giorgetti, A, Erba, P, Genovesi, D, Emdin, M, Barison, A, Manca, L, Rocchi, V, Migliorini, P, Tavoni, A, Angelotti F., Capecchi R., Giorgetti A., Erba P. A., Genovesi D., Emdin M., Barison A., Manca L., Rocchi V., Migliorini P., and Tavoni A.

Abstract

Objective. Large-vessel vasculitis (LVV) are chronic inflammatory diseases that affect arteries. While a mere clinical-serological approach does not seem sensitive either in the initial evaluation nor in long-term monitoring, 18-FDG positron emission tomography (18-FDG PET) is currently considered a useful assessment tool in LVV. We aimed at exploring the utility of 18-FDG, compared with traditional assessments, in the short- and long-term follow-up of patients with LVV. In addition, we compared patterns of vascular involvement in patients with Takayasu’s arteritis (TAK) and giant cell arteritis (GCA). Method. We retrospectively analysed 47 patients affected by LVV, evaluating clinics, blood chemistry and 18-FDG PET results, at two time points, short-term (average 8 months after diagnosis) and long-term (average 29 months). Results. 18-FDG PET uptake, expressed as mean value of SUV max, decreased significantly during follow-up in all the patients. A low concordance between 18-FDG PET and acute phase reactants levels was observed, but also a good sensitivity in detecting the response to treatment. Conclusion. The results confirm the role of 18-FDG PET as a powerful tool in the evaluation of LVV, both at the time of diagnosis and during monitoring. Furthermore, the data confirm that GCA and TAK are part of the same disease spectrum.

Published
2021

15. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Author

Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wagner, Fabian, Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Wagner, Fabian

Abstract

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Published
2022

16. Translating observed household energy behavior to agent-based technology choices in an integrated modeling framework

Author

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Miu, Luciana, Sachs, Julia, Hawkes, Adam, Tavoni, Massimo, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Miu, Luciana, Sachs, Julia, Hawkes, Adam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Abstract

Decarbonizing the building sector depends on choices made at the household level, which are heterogeneous. Agent-based models are tools used to describe heterogeneous choices but require data-intensive calibration. This study analyzes a novel, cross-country European household-level survey, including sociodemographic characteristics, energy-saving habits, energy-saving investments, and metered household electricity consumption, to enhance the empirical grounding of an agent-based residential energy choice model. Applying cluster analysis to the data shows that energy consumption is not straightforwardly explained by sociodemographic classes, preferences, or attitudes, but some patterns emerge. Income consistently has the largest effect on demand, dwelling efficiency, and energy-saving investments, and the potential to improve a dwellings' energy use affects the efficiency investments made. Including the various sources of heterogeneity found to characterize the model agents affects the timing and speed of the transition. The results reinforce the need for grounding agent-based models in empirical data, to better understand energy transition dynamics.

Published
2022

18. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Author

Environmental Sciences, Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wagner, Fabian, Environmental Sciences, Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Wagner, Fabian

Published
2022

19. A method to identify barriers to and enablers of implementing climate change mitigation options

Author

Steg, L., Veldstra, J., Kleijne, K. de, Kılkış, Ş., Lucena, A.F.P., Nilsson, L.J., Sugiyama, M., Smith, P., Tavoni, M., Coninck, H.C. de, Diemen, R. van, Renforth, P., Mirasgedis, S., Nemet, G., Görsch, R., Muri, H., Bertoldi, P., Cabeza, L.F., Mata, E., Novikova, A., Caldas, L.R., Chàfer, M., Khosla, R., Vérez, D., Steg, L., Veldstra, J., Kleijne, K. de, Kılkış, Ş., Lucena, A.F.P., Nilsson, L.J., Sugiyama, M., Smith, P., Tavoni, M., Coninck, H.C. de, Diemen, R. van, Renforth, P., Mirasgedis, S., Nemet, G., Görsch, R., Muri, H., Bertoldi, P., Cabeza, L.F., Mata, E., Novikova, A., Caldas, L.R., Chàfer, M., Khosla, R., and Vérez, D.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 285538.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access)

Published
2022

20. A method to identify barriers to and enablers of implementing climate change mitigation options

Author

Steg, L., Veldstra, J., Kleijne, K. de, Kılkış, Ş., Lucena, A.F.P., Nilsson, L.J., Sugiyama, M., Smith, P., Tavoni, M., Coninck, H.C. de, Diemen, R. van, Renforth, P., Mirasgedis, S., Nemet, G., Görsch, R., Muri, H., Bertoldi, P., Cabeza, L.F., Mata, E., Novikova, A., Caldas, L.R., Chàfer, M., Khosla, R., Vérez, D., Steg, L., Veldstra, J., Kleijne, K. de, Kılkış, Ş., Lucena, A.F.P., Nilsson, L.J., Sugiyama, M., Smith, P., Tavoni, M., Coninck, H.C. de, Diemen, R. van, Renforth, P., Mirasgedis, S., Nemet, G., Görsch, R., Muri, H., Bertoldi, P., Cabeza, L.F., Mata, E., Novikova, A., Caldas, L.R., Chàfer, M., Khosla, R., and Vérez, D.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 285538.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access)

Published
2022

22. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Author

Environmental Sciences, Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wagner, Fabian, Environmental Sciences, Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Wagner, Fabian

Published
2022

23. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals (Chapter 3)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., and van Vuuren, D.P.

Abstract

Chapter 3 assesses the emissions pathways literature in order to identify their key characteristics (both in commonalities and differences) and to understand how societal choices may steer the system into a particular direction (high confidence). More than 2000 quantitative emissions pathways were submitted to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report AR6 scenarios database, out of which 1202 scenarios included sufficient information for assessing the associated warming consistent with WGI.

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

24. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals (Chapter 3)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., and van Vuuren, D.P.

Abstract

Chapter 3 assesses the emissions pathways literature in order to identify their key characteristics (both in commonalities and differences) and to understand how societal choices may steer the system into a particular direction (high confidence). More than 2000 quantitative emissions pathways were submitted to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report AR6 scenarios database, out of which 1202 scenarios included sufficient information for assessing the associated warming consistent with WGI.

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

25. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-term Goals (Chapter 3)

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Nicholls, Z., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Arango, J., Calvin, K., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Jiang, K., Kriegler, E., Matthews, R., Peters, G.P., Rao, A., Robertson, S., Sebbit, A.M., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., and van Vuuren, D.P.

Abstract

Chapter 3 assesses the emissions pathways literature in order to identify their key characteristics (both in commonalities and differences) and to understand how societal choices may steer the system into a particular direction (high confidence). More than 2000 quantitative emissions pathways were submitted to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report AR6 scenarios database, out of which 1202 scenarios included sufficient information for assessing the associated warming consistent with WGI.

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

26. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Author

Environmental Sciences, Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wagner, Fabian, Environmental Sciences, Guivarch, Céline, Le Gallic, Thomas, Bauer, Nico, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Huppmann, Daniel, Jaxa-Rozen, Marc, Keppo, Ilkka, Kriegler, Elmar, Krisztin, Tamás, Marangoni, Giacomo, Pye, Steve, Riahi, Keywan, Schaeffer, Roberto, Tavoni, Massimo, Trutnevyte, Evelina, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Wagner, Fabian

Published
2022

28. A method to identify barriers to and enablers of implementing climate change mitigation options

Author

Steg, Linda, Veldstra, Janet, de Kleijne, Kiane, Kılkış, Şiir, Lucena, André F.P., Nilsson, Lars J., Sugiyama, Masahiro, Smith, Pete, Tavoni, Massimo, de Coninck, Heleen, van Diemen, Renée, Renforth, Phil, Mirasgedis, Sebastian, Nemet, Gregory, Görsch, Robert, Muri, Helene, Bertoldi, Paolo, Cabeza, Luisa F., Mata, Érika, Novikova, Aleksandra, Caldas, Lucas R., Chàfer, Marta, Khosla, Radhika, Vérez, David, Steg, Linda, Veldstra, Janet, de Kleijne, Kiane, Kılkış, Şiir, Lucena, André F.P., Nilsson, Lars J., Sugiyama, Masahiro, Smith, Pete, Tavoni, Massimo, de Coninck, Heleen, van Diemen, Renée, Renforth, Phil, Mirasgedis, Sebastian, Nemet, Gregory, Görsch, Robert, Muri, Helene, Bertoldi, Paolo, Cabeza, Luisa F., Mata, Érika, Novikova, Aleksandra, Caldas, Lucas R., Chàfer, Marta, Khosla, Radhika, and Vérez, David

Abstract

Mitigation option are not yet being implemented at the scale required to limit global warming to well below 2°C. Various factors have been identified that inhibit the implementation of specific mitigation options. Yet, an integrated assessment of key barriers and enablers is lacking. Here we present a comprehensive framework to assess which factors inhibit and enable the implementation of mitigation options. The framework comprises six dimensions, each encompassing different criteria: geophysical, environmental-ecological, technological, economic, sociocultural, and institutional feasibility. We demonstrate the approach by assessing to what extent each criterion and dimension affects the feasibility of six mitigation options. The assessment reveals that institutional factors inhibit the implementation of many options that need to be addressed to increase their feasibility. Of all the options assessed, many factors enable the implementation of solar energy, while only a few barriers would need to be addressed to implement solar energy at scale.

Published
2022

29. Absent or suboptimal response to booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine in patients with autoimmune systemic diseases

Author

Ferri, C., Gragnani, L., Raimondo, V., Visentini, M., Giuggioli, D., Lorini, S., Foti, R., Cacciapaglia, F., Caminiti, M., Olivo, D., Cuomo, G., Pellegrini, R., Pigatto, E., Urraro, T., Naclerio, C., Tavoni, A., Puccetti, L., Cavazzana, I., Ruscitti, P., Vadacca, M., La Gualana, F., Cozzi, F., Spinella, A., Visalli, E., Bosco, Y. D., Amato, G., Masini, F., Mariano, G. P., Brittelli, R., Aiello, V., Scorpiniti, D., Rechichi, G., Varcasia, G., Monti, M., Elia, G., Franceschini, F., Casato, M., Ursini, F., Giacomelli, R., Fallahi, P., Santini, Stefano Angelo, Iannone, F., Salvarani, C., Zignego, A. L., Antonelli, A., Santini S. A. (ORCID:0000-0003-1956-5899), Ferri, C., Gragnani, L., Raimondo, V., Visentini, M., Giuggioli, D., Lorini, S., Foti, R., Cacciapaglia, F., Caminiti, M., Olivo, D., Cuomo, G., Pellegrini, R., Pigatto, E., Urraro, T., Naclerio, C., Tavoni, A., Puccetti, L., Cavazzana, I., Ruscitti, P., Vadacca, M., La Gualana, F., Cozzi, F., Spinella, A., Visalli, E., Bosco, Y. D., Amato, G., Masini, F., Mariano, G. P., Brittelli, R., Aiello, V., Scorpiniti, D., Rechichi, G., Varcasia, G., Monti, M., Elia, G., Franceschini, F., Casato, M., Ursini, F., Giacomelli, R., Fallahi, P., Santini, Stefano Angelo, Iannone, F., Salvarani, C., Zignego, A. L., Antonelli, A., and Santini S. A. (ORCID:0000-0003-1956-5899)

Abstract

Autoimmune systemic diseases (ASD) show impaired immunogenicity to COVID-19 vaccines. Our prospective observational multicenter study aimed at evaluating the seroconversion elicited by COVID-19 vaccine over the entire vaccination cycle including the booster dose. Among 478 unselected ASD patients originally evaluated at the end of the first vaccination cycle (time 1), 344 individuals were re-evaluated after a 6-month period (time 2), and 244 after the booster vaccine dose (time 3). The immunogenicity of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) was assessed by measuring serum IgG-neutralizing antibody (NAb) on samples obtained at the three time points in both patients and 502 age-matched controls. In the 244 ASD group that received booster vaccine and monitored over the entire follow-up, the mean serum NAb levels (time 1, 2, and 3: 696.8 ± 52.68, 370.8 ± 41.92, and 1527 ± 74.16SD BAU/mL, respectively; p < 0.0001) were constantly lower compared to controls (p < 0.0001), but they significantly increased after the booster dose compared to the first two measurements (p < 0.0001). The percentage of patients with absent/suboptimal response to vaccine significantly decreased after the booster dose compared to the first and second evaluations (time 1, 2, and 3: from 28.2% to 46.3%, and to 7.8%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Of note, the percentage of patients with absent/suboptimal response after the booster dose was significantly higher compared to controls (19/244, 7.8% vs 1/502, 0.2%; p < 0.0001). Similarly, treatment with immune-modifiers increased the percentage of patients exhibiting absent/suboptimal response (16/122, 13.1% vs 3/122, 2.46%; p = 0.0031). Overall, the above findings indicate the usefulness of booster vaccine administration in ASD patients. Moreover, the persistence of a significantly higher percentage of individuals without effective seroconversion (7.8%), even after the booster dose, warrants for careful monitoring of NAb levels in a

Published
2022

30. Prevalence and Death Rate of COVID-19 in Autoimmune Systemic Diseases in the First Three Pandemic Waves. Relationship with Disease Subgroups and Ongoing Therapies

Author

Ferri, Clodoveo, Raimondo, Vincenzo, Gragnani, Laura, Giuggioli, Dilia, Dagna, Lorenzo, Tavoni, Antonio, Ursini, Francesco, L'Andolina, Massimo, Caso, Francesco, Ruscitti, Piero, Caminiti, Maurizio, Foti, Rosario, Riccieri, Valeria, Guiducci, Serena, Pellegrini, Roberta, Zanatta, Elisabetta, Varcasia, Giuseppe, Olivo, Domenico, Gigliotti, Pietro, Cuomo, Giovanna, Murdaca, Giuseppe, Cecchetti, Riccardo, De Angelis, Rossella, Romeo, Nicoletta, Ingegnoli, Francesca, Cozzi, Franco, Codullo, Veronica, Cavazzana, Ilaria, Colaci, Michele, Abignano, Giuseppina, De Santis, Maria, Lubrano, Ennio, Fusaro, Enrico, Spinella, Amelia, Lumetti, Federica, De Luca, Giacomo, Bellando-Randone, Silvia, Visalli, Elisa, Bosco, Ylenia Dal, Amato, Giorgio, Giannini, Daiana, Bilia, Silvia, Masini, Francesco, Pellegrino, Greta, Pigatto, Erika, Generali, Elena, Mariano, Giuseppa Pagano, Pettiti, Giorgio, Zanframundo, Giovanni, Brittelli, Raffaele, Aiello, Vincenzo, Caminiti, Rodolfo, Scorpiniti, Daniela, Ferrari, Tommaso, Campochiaro, Corrado, Brusi, Veronica, Fredi, Micaela, Moschetti, Liala, Cacciapaglia, Fabio, Paparo, Sabrina Rosaria, Ragusa, Francesca, Mazzi, Valeria, Elia, Giusy, Ferrari, Silvia Martina, Di Cola, Ilenia, Vadacca, Marta, Lorusso, Sebastiano, Monti, Monica, Lorini, Serena, Aprile, Maria Letizia, Tasso, Marco, Miccoli, Mario, Bosello, Silvia Laura, D'Angelo, Salvatore, Doria, Andrea, Franceschini, Franco, Meliconi, Riccardo, Matucci-Cerinic, Marco, Iannone, Florenzo, Giacomelli, Roberto, Salvarani, Carlo, Zignego, Anna Linda, Fallahi, Poupak, Antonelli, Alessandro, Bosello, Silvia (ORCID:0000-0002-4837-447X), Ferri, Clodoveo, Raimondo, Vincenzo, Gragnani, Laura, Giuggioli, Dilia, Dagna, Lorenzo, Tavoni, Antonio, Ursini, Francesco, L'Andolina, Massimo, Caso, Francesco, Ruscitti, Piero, Caminiti, Maurizio, Foti, Rosario, Riccieri, Valeria, Guiducci, Serena, Pellegrini, Roberta, Zanatta, Elisabetta, Varcasia, Giuseppe, Olivo, Domenico, Gigliotti, Pietro, Cuomo, Giovanna, Murdaca, Giuseppe, Cecchetti, Riccardo, De Angelis, Rossella, Romeo, Nicoletta, Ingegnoli, Francesca, Cozzi, Franco, Codullo, Veronica, Cavazzana, Ilaria, Colaci, Michele, Abignano, Giuseppina, De Santis, Maria, Lubrano, Ennio, Fusaro, Enrico, Spinella, Amelia, Lumetti, Federica, De Luca, Giacomo, Bellando-Randone, Silvia, Visalli, Elisa, Bosco, Ylenia Dal, Amato, Giorgio, Giannini, Daiana, Bilia, Silvia, Masini, Francesco, Pellegrino, Greta, Pigatto, Erika, Generali, Elena, Mariano, Giuseppa Pagano, Pettiti, Giorgio, Zanframundo, Giovanni, Brittelli, Raffaele, Aiello, Vincenzo, Caminiti, Rodolfo, Scorpiniti, Daniela, Ferrari, Tommaso, Campochiaro, Corrado, Brusi, Veronica, Fredi, Micaela, Moschetti, Liala, Cacciapaglia, Fabio, Paparo, Sabrina Rosaria, Ragusa, Francesca, Mazzi, Valeria, Elia, Giusy, Ferrari, Silvia Martina, Di Cola, Ilenia, Vadacca, Marta, Lorusso, Sebastiano, Monti, Monica, Lorini, Serena, Aprile, Maria Letizia, Tasso, Marco, Miccoli, Mario, Bosello, Silvia Laura, D'Angelo, Salvatore, Doria, Andrea, Franceschini, Franco, Meliconi, Riccardo, Matucci-Cerinic, Marco, Iannone, Florenzo, Giacomelli, Roberto, Salvarani, Carlo, Zignego, Anna Linda, Fallahi, Poupak, Antonelli, Alessandro, and Bosello, Silvia (ORCID:0000-0002-4837-447X)

Abstract

Objective: Autoimmune systemic diseases (ASD) represent a predisposing condition to COVID-19. Our prospective, observational multicenter telephone survey study aimed to investigate the prevalence, prognostic factors, and outcomes of COVID-19 in Italian ASD patients. Methods: The study included 3,918 ASD pts (815 M, 3103 F; mean age 59 +/- 12SD years) consecutively recruited between March 2020 and May 2021 at the 36 referral centers of COVID-19 and ASD Italian Study Group. The possible development of COVID-19 was recorded by means of a telephone survey using a standardized symptom assessment questionnaire. Results: ASD patients showed a significantly higher prevalence of COVID-19 (8.37% vs. 6.49%; p<0.0001) but a death rate statistically comparable to the Italian general population (3.65% vs. 2.95%). Among the 328 ASD patients developing COVID-19, 17% needed hospitalization, while mild-moderate manifestations were observed in 83% of cases. Moreover, 12/57 hospitalized patients died due to severe interstitial pneumonia and/or cardiovascular events; systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients showed a significantly higher COVID-19-related death rate compared to the general population (6.29% vs. 2.95%; p=0.018). Major adverse prognostic factors to develop COVID-19 were: older age, male gender, SSc, pre-existing ASD-related interstitial lung involvement, and long-term steroid treatment. Of note, patients treated with conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) showed a significantly lower prevalence of COVID-19 compared to those without (3.58% vs. 46.99%; p=0.000), as well as the SSc patients treated with low dose aspirin (with 5.57% vs. without 27.84%; p=0.000). Conclusion: During the first three pandemic waves, ASD patients showed a death rate comparable to the general population despite the significantly higher prevalence of COVID-19. A significantly increased COVID-19-related mortality was recorded in only SSc patients' subgroup, possibly favored

Published
2022

31. AR6 Scenarios Database

Author

Byers, E., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Kikstra, J., Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Sandstad, M., Smith, C., van der Wijst, K., Al -Khourdajie, A., Lecocq, F., Portugal-Pereira, J., Saheb, Y., Stromman, A., Winkler, H., Auer, C., Brutschin, E., Gidden, M., Hackstock, P., Harmsen, M., Huppmann, D., Kolp, P., Lepault, C., Lewis, J., Marangoni, G., Müller-Casseres, E., Skeie, R., Werning, M., Calvin, K., Forster, P., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Meinshausen, M., Peters, G., Rogelj, J., Samset, B., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., Byers, E., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Kikstra, J., Lamboll, R., Nicholls, Z., Sandstad, M., Smith, C., van der Wijst, K., Al -Khourdajie, A., Lecocq, F., Portugal-Pereira, J., Saheb, Y., Stromman, A., Winkler, H., Auer, C., Brutschin, E., Gidden, M., Hackstock, P., Harmsen, M., Huppmann, D., Kolp, P., Lepault, C., Lewis, J., Marangoni, G., Müller-Casseres, E., Skeie, R., Werning, M., Calvin, K., Forster, P., Guivarch, C., Hasegawa, T., Meinshausen, M., Peters, G., Rogelj, J., Samset, B., Steinberger, J., Tavoni, M., and van Vuuren, D.

Abstract

As part of the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6), authors from Working Group III on Mitigation of Climate Change undertook a comprehensive exercise to collect and assess quantitative, model-based scenarios related to the mitigation of climate change. Building on previous assessments, such as those undertaken for the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the calls for AR6 for scenarios have been expanded and includes economy-wide GHG emissions, energy, and sectoral scenarios from global to national scales, thus more broadly supporting the assessment across multiple chapters (see Annex III, Part 2 of the WGIII report for more details). The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC AR6 report, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC. The scenario ensemble contains 3,131 quantitative scenarios with data on socio-economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral transformations across energy, land use, transportation, buildings and industry. These scenarios derive from 191 unique modelling frameworks, 95+ model families that are either globally comprehensive, national, multi-regional or sectoral. The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than October 11th, 2021, or published in a report determined by the IPCC WG III Bureau to be eligible grey literature by the same date. The AR6 scenario database is documented in Annex III.2 of the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group III. For the purpose of the assessment, scenarios have been grouped in various categories relating to, among other things, climate outcomes, overshoot, technology availability and policy assumptions.

Published
2022

32. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Author

Guivarch, C., Le Gallic, T., Bauer, N., Fragkos, P., Huppmann, D., Jaxa-Rozen, M., Keppo, I., Kriegler, E., Krisztin, T., Marangoni, G., Pye, S., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., Trutnevyte, E., van Vuuren, D., Wagner, F., Guivarch, C., Le Gallic, T., Bauer, N., Fragkos, P., Huppmann, D., Jaxa-Rozen, M., Keppo, I., Kriegler, E., Krisztin, T., Marangoni, G., Pye, S., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., Trutnevyte, E., van Vuuren, D., and Wagner, F.

Abstract

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Published
2022

33. Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

Author

Guivarch, C., Le Gallic, T., Bauer, N., Fragkos, P., Huppmann, D., Jaxa-Rozen, M., Keppo, I., Kriegler, E., Krisztin, T., Marangoni, G., Pye, S., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., Trutnevyte, E., van Vuuren, D., Wagner, F., Guivarch, C., Le Gallic, T., Bauer, N., Fragkos, P., Huppmann, D., Jaxa-Rozen, M., Keppo, I., Kriegler, E., Krisztin, T., Marangoni, G., Pye, S., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, R., Tavoni, M., Trutnevyte, E., van Vuuren, D., and Wagner, F.

Abstract

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Published
2022

34. Solar geoengineering may lead to excessive cooling and high strategic uncertainty

Author

Lou Abatayo, A, Bosetti, V, Casari, M, Ghidoni, R, Tavoni, M, Anna Lou Abatayo, Valentina Bosetti, Marco Casari, Riccardo Ghidoni, Massimo Tavoni, Lou Abatayo, A, Bosetti, V, Casari, M, Ghidoni, R, Tavoni, M, Anna Lou Abatayo, Valentina Bosetti, Marco Casari, Riccardo Ghidoni, and Massimo Tavoni

Abstract

Climate engineering—the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the Earth’s climate system—is a set of technologies for reducing climate-change impacts and risks. It is controversial and raises novel governance challenges [T. C. Schelling, Climatic Change, 33, 303–307 (1996); J. Virgoe, Climatic Change, 95, 103–119 (2008)]. We focus on the strategic implications of solar geoengineering. When countries engineer the climate, conflict can arise because different countries might prefer different temperatures. This would result in too much geoengineering: the country with the highest preference for geoengineering cools the planet beyond what is socially optimal at the expense of the others—a theoretical possibility termed “free-driving” [M. L. Weitzman, Scand. J. Econ., 117, 1049–1068 (2015)]. This study is an empirical test of this hypothesis. We carry out an economic laboratory experiment based on a public “good or bad” game. We find compelling evidence of free-driving: global geoengineering exceeds the socially efficient level and leads to welfare losses. We also evaluate the possibility of counteracting the geoengineering efforts of others. Results show that countergeoengineering generates high payoff inequality as well as heavy welfare losses, resulting from both strategic and behavioral factors. Finally, we compare strategic behavior in bilateral and multilateral settings. We find that welfare deteriorates even more under multilateralism when countergeoengineering is a possibility. These results have general implications for governing global good or bad commons.

Published
2020

35. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Abstract

Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Published
2021

36. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Abstract

Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

Published
2021

37. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Author

van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

Published
2021

38. Persistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies

Author

Gazzotti, Paolo, Emmerling, Johannes, Marangoni, Giacomo, Castelletti, Andrea, Wijst, Kaj-Ivar van der, Hof, Andries, Tavoni, Massimo, Gazzotti, Paolo, Emmerling, Johannes, Marangoni, Giacomo, Castelletti, Andrea, Wijst, Kaj-Ivar van der, Hof, Andries, and Tavoni, Massimo

Abstract

Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies by integrated assessment models have generated conflicting assessments. Two critical issues affecting social welfare are regional heterogeneity and inequality. These have only partly been accounted for in existing frameworks. Here, we present a benefit-cost model with more than 50 regions, calibrated upon emissions and mitigation cost data from detailed-process IAMs, and featuring country-level economic damages. We compare countries’ self-interested and cooperative behaviour under a range of assumptions about socioeconomic development, climate impacts, and preferences over time and inequality. Results indicate that without international cooperation, global temperature rises, though less than in commonly-used reference scenarios. Cooperation stabilizes temperature within the Paris goals (1.80∘C [1.53∘C–2.31∘C] in 2100). Nevertheless, economic inequality persists: the ratio between top and bottom income deciles is 117% higher than without climate change impacts, even for economically optimal pathways.

Published
2021

39. Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

Author

Duan, Hongbo, Zhou, Sheng, Jiang, Kejun, Bertram, Christoph, Harmsen, Mathijs, Kriegler, Elmar, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Wang, Shouyang, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Tavoni, Massimo, Ming, Xi, Keramidas, Kimon, Iyer, Gokul, Edmonds, James, Duan, Hongbo, Zhou, Sheng, Jiang, Kejun, Bertram, Christoph, Harmsen, Mathijs, Kriegler, Elmar, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Wang, Shouyang, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Tavoni, Massimo, Ming, Xi, Keramidas, Kimon, Iyer, Gokul, and Edmonds, James

Abstract

Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.

Published
2021

40. A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios

Author

Brutschin, E., Pianta, S., Tavoni, M., Riahi, K., Bosetti, V., Marangoni, G., van Ruijven, B.J., Brutschin, E., Pianta, S., Tavoni, M., Riahi, K., Bosetti, V., Marangoni, G., and van Ruijven, B.J.

Abstract

Long-term mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models underpin major aspects of recent IPCC reports and have been critical to identify the system transformations that are required to meet stringent climate goals. However, they have been criticized for proposing pathways that may prove challenging to implement in the real world and for failing to capture the social and institutional challenges of the transition. There is a growing interest to assess the feasibility of these scenarios, but past research has mostly focused on theoretical considerations. This paper proposes a novel and versatile multidimensional framework that allows evaluating and comparing decarbonization pathways by systematically quantifying feasibility concerns across geophysical, technological, economic, socio-cultural and institutional dimensions. This framework enables to assess the timing, disruptiveness and scale of feasibility concerns, and to identify trade-offs across different feasibility dimensions. As a first implementation of the proposed framework, we map the feasibility concerns of the IPCC 1.5 °C Special Report scenarios. We select 24 quantitative indicators and propose feasibility thresholds based on insights from an extensive analysis of the literature and empirical data. Our framework is, however, flexible and allows evaluations based on different thresholds or aggregation rules. Our analyses show that institutional constraints, which are often not accounted for in scenarios, are key drivers of feasibility concerns. Moreover, we identify a clear intertemporal trade-off, with early mitigation being more disruptive but preventing higher and persistent feasibility concerns produced by postponed mitigation action later in the century.

Published
2021

41. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., Longa, F.D., Després, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., Nogueira, L.P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P.R.R., Unlu, G., van Ruijven, B., Takakura, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., Zakeri, B., Riahi, K., Bertram, C., Huppmann, D., Rogelj, J., Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z., Longa, F.D., Després, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Gusti, M., Humpenöder, F., Keramidas, K., Kishimoto, P., Kriegler, E., Meinshausen, M., Nogueira, L.P., Oshiro, K., Popp, A., Rochedo, P.R.R., Unlu, G., van Ruijven, B., Takakura, J., Tavoni, M., van Vuuren, D., and Zakeri, B.

Abstract

Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Published
2021

42. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S.A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Krey, V., Oshiro, K., Nogueira, L.P., Paroussos, L., Piontek, F., Riahi, K., Rochedo, P.R.R., Schaeffer, R., Takakura, J., van der Wijst, K.-I., van der Zwaan, B., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Zakeri, B., Tavoni, M., Drouet, L., Bosetti, V., Padoan, S.A., Aleluia Reis, L., Bertram, C., Dalla Longa, F., Després, J., Emmerling, J., Fosse, F., Fragkiadakis, K., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Harmsen, M., Krey, V., Oshiro, K., Nogueira, L.P., Paroussos, L., Piontek, F., Riahi, K., Rochedo, P.R.R., Schaeffer, R., Takakura, J., van der Wijst, K.-I., van der Zwaan, B., van Vuuren, D., Vrontisi, Z., Weitzel, M., Zakeri, B., and Tavoni, M.

Abstract

Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

Published
2021

43. The cost of mitigation revisited

Author

Köberle, A.C., Vandyck, T., Guivarch, C., Macaluso, N., Bosetti, V., Gambhir, A., Tavoni, M., Rogelj, J., Köberle, A.C., Vandyck, T., Guivarch, C., Macaluso, N., Bosetti, V., Gambhir, A., Tavoni, M., and Rogelj, J.

Abstract

Estimates of economic implications of climate policy are important inputs into policy-making. Despite care to contextualize quantitative assessments of mitigation costs, one strong view outside academic climate economics is that achieving Paris Agreement goals implies sizable macroeconomic losses. Here, we argue that this notion results from unwarranted simplification or omission of the complexities of quantifying mitigation costs, which generates ambiguity in communication and interpretation. We synthesize key factors influencing mitigation cost estimates to guide interpretation of estimates, for example from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and suggest ways to improve the underlying models. We propose alternatives for the scenario design framework, the framing of mitigation costs and the methods used to derive them, to better inform public debate and policy.

Published
2021

44. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Drouet, Laurent, Bosetti, Valentina, Padoan, Simone A., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Bertram, Christoph, Dalla Longa, Francesco, Després, Jacques, Emmerling, Johannes, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Krey, Volker, Oshiro, Ken, Nogueira, Larissa P., Paroussos, Leonidas, Piontek, Franziska, Riahi, Keywan, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Schaeffer, Roberto, Takakura, Jun’ya, van der Wijst, Kaj Ivar, van der Zwaan, Bob, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vrontisi, Zoi, Weitzel, Matthias, Zakeri, Behnam, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021

45. Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Author

Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Zakeri, Behnam, Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Bertram, Christoph, Huppmann, Daniel, Rogelj, Joeri, Bosetti, Valentina, Cabardos, Anique Marie, Deppermann, Andre, Drouet, Laurent, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Paroussos, Leonidas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Weitzel, Matthias, van der Zwaan, Bob, Vrontisi, Zoi, Longa, Francesco Dalla, Després, Jacques, Fosse, Florian, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gusti, Mykola, Humpenöder, Florian, Keramidas, Kimon, Kishimoto, Paul, Kriegler, Elmar, Meinshausen, Malte, Nogueira, Larissa P., Oshiro, Ken, Popp, Alexander, Rochedo, Pedro R.R., Ünlü, Gamze, van Ruijven, Bas, Takakura, Junya, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Zakeri, Behnam

Published
2021

46. Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, van Soest, Heleen L., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Baptista, Luiz Bernardo, Bertram, Christoph, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, den Elzen, Michel, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grant, Neil, Harmsen, Mathijs, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Kriegler, Elmar, Malik, Aman, Mittal, Shivika, Oshiro, Ken, Riahi, Keywan, Roelfsema, Mark, van Ruijven, Bas, Schaeffer, Roberto, Silva Herran, Diego, Tavoni, Massimo, Unlu, Gamze, Vandyck, Toon, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2021

47. Persistent inequality in economically optimal climate policies

Author

Environmental Sciences, Gazzotti, Paolo, Emmerling, Johannes, Marangoni, Giacomo, Castelletti, Andrea, Wijst, Kaj-Ivar van der, Hof, Andries, Tavoni, Massimo, Environmental Sciences, Gazzotti, Paolo, Emmerling, Johannes, Marangoni, Giacomo, Castelletti, Andrea, Wijst, Kaj-Ivar van der, Hof, Andries, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2021

48. Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit

Author

Environmental Sciences, Duan, Hongbo, Zhou, Sheng, Jiang, Kejun, Bertram, Christoph, Harmsen, Mathijs, Kriegler, Elmar, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Wang, Shouyang, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Tavoni, Massimo, Ming, Xi, Keramidas, Kimon, Iyer, Gokul, Edmonds, James, Environmental Sciences, Duan, Hongbo, Zhou, Sheng, Jiang, Kejun, Bertram, Christoph, Harmsen, Mathijs, Kriegler, Elmar, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Wang, Shouyang, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Tavoni, Massimo, Ming, Xi, Keramidas, Kimon, Iyer, Gokul, and Edmonds, James

Published
2021

49. Long term, cross-country effects of buildings insulation policies

Author

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Edelenbosch, OY, Rovelli, D, Levesque, A, Marangoni, G, Tavoni, M, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Edelenbosch, OY, Rovelli, D, Levesque, A, Marangoni, G, and Tavoni, M

Published
2021

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results