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Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide ecosystem services while also mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline.We found that both conservation strategies result in a reduction in the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, but without additional measures to achieve effective climate mitigation they will be insufficient to restore biodiversity. The HE strategy performs better for terrestrial biodiversity protection (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Red List Index, geometric mean abundance) in currently still natural regions, reflecting global conservation priorities. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, aquatic biodiversity and for regulating ecosystem services (pest control, pollination, erosion control), reflecting regional priorities. However, ‘conservation only’ scenarios show a considerable increase in food security risks (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa) compared to the baseline and limited reduction of global temperature increase. Only when conservation strategies are combined with climate change mitigation efforts and additional actions especially in the agricultural and energy system into a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’, both conservation strategies result in restoring biodiversity to curre

The pressure on land is growing in many regions of the world, due to the increasing demand for arable crops, meat and dairy products, bio-energy and timber, and is exacerbated by land degradation and climate change. This policy report provides scenario projections for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook, exploring future changes to the use and condition of land and the resulting impacts on food, water, climate change and biodiversity.

De Nederlandse overheid verwacht dat een grootschalige toepassing van biomassa nodig is om aan de emissiedoelstellingen te voldoen, maar de macro-economische effecten hiervan op de Nederlandse economie zijn onbekend. Deze studie onderzoekt de effecten van een bio-economie op zowel systeemals macro-economisch niveau en toont aan dat de bio-economie positief kan bijdragen aan de Nederlandse economie, het behalen van broeikasgasreductiedoelstellingen en aan het reduceren van de kosten van het terugdringen van broeikasgasemissies. Om deze effecten te realiseren zijn grootschalige technologische veranderingen en wereldwijde markten belangrijk, maar lage prijzen van fossiele energie leiden tot minder macro-economische voordelen. Om de positieve macro-economische effecten en CO2-reductie te realiseren is een stimuleringsbeleid noodzakelijk.

The REDD policy which preserves, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness, agricultural prices, trade, production and food security the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.5%.

Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the Bioeconomy Strategy and Action Plan with the objective of establishing a resource efficient and competitive society that reconciles food security with the sustainable use of renewable resources. This report contributes to the plan by evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU. Such effects can only be evaluated with a computable general equilibrium model such as MAGNET. Four bio-based applications are considered, namely biofuel (second generation), biochemicals, bioelectricity, and biogas (synthetic natural gas). This is done assuming that 1 EJ lignocellulose biomass is converted into fuel, chemicals, electricity and gas and that the final product replaces an equal amount of conventional (e.g. fossil energy) product (on energy basis). The results show that given the assumed efficiency of conversion technology, costs of conversion, biomass price and oil price, the production of second generation biofuel and biochemicals are the only competitive sectors compare to their conventional counterparts in the year 2030 for the EU. In the case of the fuel sectors, it represents a net GDP effect of 5.1 billion US dollars while biochemicals generates 6 billion US dollars. A substantial part of this impact can be explained by the increase in wages, since the production of biomass is relatively labour intensive. The resulting increase in wages is transmitted to other sectors in the economy and increases production and consumption. Another important contributor is the lower oil and fuel price as a result of the substitution of oil based fuel production by bio-based fuel production, which in turn benefits the entire economy

We develop a methodology for incorporating nutrition impacts in economy-wide analyses, providing entry points for where, when and how to act. It accounts for three channels of consumption, directly via primary commodities and indirectly via processed foods and food-related services, and produces indicators showing content by nutrient (currently calories, proteins, fats and carbohydrates), channel, source region and sector. The paper applies the framework in a CGE model (MAGNET) and uses FAO data to project nutritional outcomes resulting from the global food system over time. The analysis confirms that developing regions catch up with developed regions, with the USA at the high-end of nutrient consumption, whilst Southern Africa lags behind. In the USA the processed food channel dominates, whereas in Southern Africa the direct channel dominates. In the USA, and similar regions, fat taxes (thin subsidies) on unhealthy (healthy) processed foods, technologies reducing bad ingredients (e.g. trans fats, salt), improved food labelling, information and marketing campaigns, and/or targeted cash transfers may be worthwhile to investigate. In Southern Africa, and regions alike, technological advances increasing nutrient availability via primary agriculture and/or cash transfers enabling access may be more pertinent. The relative fixedness of sectoral origins shows that consumption habits change slowly and are visible only in the long term. For certain regions, including Southern Africa and USA, nutrient import dependency increases with substantial variations in regional sourcing. This implies that concerted action across the globe is crucial to reach diet, nutrition and health goals, and should include upcoming Asian economies, Africa (excl. Southern Africa) and the Middle East. Heterogeneity of results necessitates future ex-ante quantitative policy analyses on a more detailed and context-specific basis.

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, crop-land area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

This paper develops an innovative approach for calculating household nutrition indicators in a Computable General Equilibrium framework, using the flow of primary agri-food commodities through the global economy from farm to fork. It has been incorporated as a nutrition module in MAGNET. The method of tracing nutrients through the food system allows for making agriculture, the food supply chain and the economy as a whole nutrition-sensitive in scenario analyses. The validation of the nutrition outcomes in the base year with global data on nutrient consumption from the FAO reveals important differences which stem from differences in data and assumptions. Various solutions are identified to improve the calculations in the future. In the short run, correction factors are applied in the calculation of indicators in the nutrition module to capture and adjust the methodology for the remaining differences.

Deliverable D.7.1 Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results and D.7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments are now available. These deliverables should be seen and read in together. D.7.1 describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the global models in the topdown analysis in WP7, which provide the boundary conditions for in-depth analysis at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels while D7.2 presents selected results from the linked modelling system. The 4 marker scenarios will also provide a starting point for a larger number of policy scenarios to be analyzed in the next steps of the VOLANTE project. The VOLANTE top-down modelling framework has been developed to serve the stakeholder discussions and roadmapping in module Visions by adequate information that can fuel discussions and provide quantitative assessments to support the final roadmapping exercise. Selected scenario results have already been used in 4 visions workshops which have been conducted by Module Visions in June and September 2012.

This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets.This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work.Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.

Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving biophysical impact calculations and estimation economic effects of these.However, only few global modeling studies concerning this issue exist, and the actual implementation can take many forms. This study uses the approach of assuming that non Annex-I countries protect carbon rich areas from deforestation, and therefore loose the opportunity to use it as agricultural area. The opportunity costs of reducing deforestation within the framework of REDD are assessed with the global economic model LEITAP and the biophysical model IMAGE. A key methodological challenge is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert forestry land into agricultural land as REDD policies might prevent the use of forest for agriculture. We endogenize availability of agricultural land by introducing a flexible land supply curve and proxy the implementation of the REDD policies as a shift in the asymptote of this curve representing maximal agricultural land availability in various regions in the world. In a series of experiments, increasingly more carbon rich areas are protected from deforestation, the associated costs in terms of GDP reduction are calculated with the economic model. The associated reduction in CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by the IMAGE model. From this series of experiments, abatement cost curves, relating CO2 emission reduction to costs of this reduction, are constructed. The results show that globally a maximum CO2 reduction of around 2.5 Gt could be achieved. However, regional differences are large, ranging from about 0 to 3.2 USD per ton CO2 in Africa, 2 to 9 USD in South and Central America, and 20 to 60 USD in Southeast Asia

This Macro-economic Impact Study (MES) provides quantitative insights into the macro-economic effects of introducing green, palmbased alternatives for electricity, fuels, chemicals and materials industries in Malaysia between now and 2030., Deze macro-economische impactstudie (MES) biedt kwantitatieve inzichten in de macro-economische effecten van de invoering tussen nu en 2030 van groene, op palmolie gebaseerde alternatieven voor de productie van elektriciteit, brandstoffen, chemicaliën en materialen in Maleisië.

Deliverable D.7.1 Description of a coupled macroeconomic, multi-sector analysis at global scale with first simulation results and D.7.2 Description of the linked modelling system of sector models and multi-sector assessments are now available. These deliverables should be seen and read in together. D.7.1 describes results for 4 marker scenarios from the global models in the topdown analysis in WP7, which provide the boundary conditions for in-depth analysis at the level of EU-27, individual member countries as well as sub-national levels while D7.2 presents selected results from the linked modelling system. The 4 marker scenarios will also provide a starting point for a larger number of policy scenarios to be analyzed in the next steps of the VOLANTE project. The VOLANTE top-down modelling framework has been developed to serve the stakeholder discussions and roadmapping in module Visions by adequate information that can fuel discussions and provide quantitative assessments to support the final roadmapping exercise. Selected scenario results have already been used in 4 visions workshops which have been conducted by Module Visions in June and September 2012.

Dit rapport geeft inzicht in de economische perspectieven van het Nederlandse agrocomplex, door het schetsen van een palet aan ontwikkelingsmogelijkheden. De focus ligt op de voedsel- en sierteeltproductie. De tijdshorizon is 2025.

Het verlies van biodiversiteit kan worden gereduceerd en de voedselveiligheid kan worden verbeterd door maatregelen toe te passen om de opbrengst te verhogen en het verlies van voedsel te beperken. De wereldwijde vrag naar landbouwproducten zal toenemen om aan grotere vraag als gevolg van meer welvaart en de bevolkingsgroei te kunnen blijven voldoen. De focus ligt op Brazilië, Indonesië en Midden-Afrika

The aim of this paper is to show the consequences of a model extension towards the presentation of by-product in the production of biofuels. By-products can be used as a substitute for feed grain use in livestock production. A boost in biofuel production will also show a strong increase in the availability of by-products. To identify the impact of modelling biofuel production with and without presentation of by-products two different model versions have been applied. The simulation results of both model versions show that the EU mandatory blending mandate has a pronounced impact on the markets for grains, oilseeds and sugar but a rather limited impact on production level of aggregated primary agricultural output. The analysis shows that apart from direct effects of an enhanced demand for bioenergy on production and land use, the indirect effects of the EU Biofuel Directive (BFD) dominates. Additional production of biofuel crops within and outside the EU leads to strong indirect land use changes which are partly compensated for a higher availability of feed byproducts of biofuel production

This study investigates the effectiveness of post-2013 CAP measures. In addition to the measures proposed in the Dutch Outlook (focusing on competitiveness, valuable areas and ecosystem services) the effectiveness of base premiums are considered, as this measure is proposed by some other Member States. This study can be seen as a first attempt to quantify the transition to a CAP with more targeted measures at the European level and reveals considerable methodological and data challenges. A key finding is that the impact of the various measures is very different with regard to various economic and environmental indicators. There is also a difference in the impact of a measure between regions, sectors and farm types., In dit onderzoek wordt ingegaan op de effectiviteit van verschillende doelgerichte maatregelen van het GLB na 2013. Naast effectiviteit van de maatregelen die zijn voorgesteld in de Houtskoolschets (die gericht zijn op het concurrentievermogen, de waardevolle gebieden en de ecosysteemdiensten) wordt ook gekeken naar de effectiviteit van eventuele basispremies, zoals voorgesteld door sommige andere lidstaten. Dit onderzoek kan worden gezien als een eerste poging als een eerste poging tot het kwantificeren van de overgang van het GLB met meer gerichte maatregelen op Europees niveau. Uit dit onderzoek komen grote uitdagingen op het gebied van methodologieën en data naar boven. Een van de belangrijkste bevindingen is dat de impact van de diverse maatregelen zeer veschillend is met betrekking tot verscheidene economische en milieu-indicatoren. Ook is er een verschil van impact van de maatregelen tussen regio's, sectoren en bedrijfssoorten.

This report is the conclusion of research undertaken to better understand the impact of the developing biobased economy on agricultural land markets. This has involved understanding the true dimension of the biobased economy, namely the large range of products for which a biobased component exists or could exist, and in this regard the likely evolution in the substitution of elements produced from fossil oil. This research is also a first step to determine whether the overall result of the development of the biobased economy will be positive, negative or neutral for the Dutch economy as a whole., Dit rapport vormt de conclusie van een onderzoek dat is uitgevoerd om meer inzicht te krijgen in de bio-economie die zich aan het ontwikkelen is op de markten voor landbouwgrond. Het ging onder andere om inzicht in de ware omvang van de bio-economie, dat wil zeggen: het grote aanbod aan producten die gedeeltelijk uit biomassa bestaan of kunnen bestaan, en in dat verband de te verwachten ontwikkeling dat elementen die uit fossiele oliën zijn geproduceerd, worden vervangen. Dit onderzoek is bovendien een eerste stap om te bepalen of het resultaat van de ontwikkeling van een bio-economie over het geheel genomen positief, negatief of neutraal zal zijn voor de totale Nederlandse economie.

Mondiale ecosystemen staan zwaar onder druk. Het beschermen van waardevolle natuurgebieden is niet voldoende om de afname van de biodiversiteit te verminderen, maar blijft wel noodzakelijk. Om het tempo van het biodiversiteitverlies fors af te remmen, zijn structurele veranderingen in consumptie en productie nodig. Er valt veel winst te behalen bij vermindering van de vleesconsumptie. Daarnaast zijn vooral in de land- en bosbouw, visserij en energievoorziening veranderingen nodig. Het Planbureau identificeert nieuwe strategieën voor VN-top in Nagoya

The paper investigates the impact of the EU Biofuels Directive (BFD) on the EU agri-food supply chain using the computable general equilibrium model of the world economy named LEITAP. LEITAP is an extended version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model including an improved land market modeling, substitution possibilities between capital and energy as well as between different energy sources including biofuels, feed byproducts of the biofuel production process and substitution between different feed components and feed byproducts. The simulation results shows that the implementation of the EU BFD has a pronounced impact on the markets of cereals, oilseeds and sugar and shows only a limited impact on production and consumption of other agrifood commodities which are not directly affected by biofuel production. The harvested area and production of biofuel crops (grains, oilseeds) is expected to increase by 17% and 25% respectively and sugar production by 12% as a direct result the BFD. The EU-imports of these commodities are expected to rise more than twice. The increasing demand for biofuel crops and sugar will lift domestic prices of these commodities by 25% and 19% respectively but overall agri-food price inflation will be limited to 3% in the EU and to less than 1% at world market level.

This paper assesses the global and sectoral implications of the European Union Biofuels Directive (BFD) in a multi-region computable general equilibrium framework with endogenous determination of land supply. The results show that, without mandatory blending policies or subsidies to stimulate the use of biofuel crops in the petroleum sector, the targets of the BFD will not be met in 2010 and 2020, De analyse laat zien dat een toegenomen vraag naar gewassen voor biobrandstof onder de huidige EU-richtlijnen zowel Europees als wereldwijd grote gevolgen heeft voor de landbouw en biodiversiteit. De huidige stijging van de voedselprijzen kan slechts ten dele toegeschreven worden aan de teelt van gewassen voor biobrandstof. Zonder bijmengverplichting of subsidies op biobrandstof zullen de doelen die de EU zich gesteld heeft voor 2010 en 2020 niet gehaald worden

This report explores the effects of agricultural trade liberalisation on greenhouse gas emissions and on changing commodity production areas by coupling of the modeling tools GTAP and IMAGE. Four scenarios are explored with developments up tot 2050. The scenarios include a baseline, full liberalisation and two partial liberalisation scenarios for which the latter scenarios include removal of trade barriers or removal of milk quota by 2015 only. The results indicate that liberalisation leads to a further increase in greenhouse gas emissions adding to an already observed increase in emissions observed in the baseline scenario. CO2 emission increase is caused by vegetation clearance due to a rapid expansion of agricultural areas in South America and South East Asia. Increased methane emissions are also calculated in these areas caused by less intensive cattle farming. Global production of the commodities milk, dairy and beef does not change between full liberalisation and the baseline but clear shifts from North America and Europe to South America and South East Asia are expected.