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This study analyzes tropical disturbances in a region usually not affected by these events, the southeastern North Atlantic. This is an extensive area between Macaronesia and the coasts of northwest Africa and the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. In the context of climate change, a statistical analysis has been conducted of the main database of the National Hurricane Center for the Atlantic basin, as well as a bibliographical compilation, in order to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of these phenomena. The starting hypothesis is to verify the existence of an increase in the risk of these situations in the region of study, through research that characterizes and charts these phenomena. The results indicate that, although with long periods of recurrence, some events with notable impacts had occurred before the first systematic records were kept. In addition, over the last fifty years, a much more reliable period from a scientific perspective, there has been an increase in their number, especially in recent decades. Furthermore, an approximate estimate is made of the population likely to be affected by tropical disturbances, which estimates that more than twenty million people are at risk., Se presenta un estudio sobre las perturbaciones tropicales en una región habitualmente no afectada por estos eventos, el Atlántico norte suroriental. Se trata de una extensa área entre la Macaronesia y las costas del noroeste de África y suroeste de la península ibérica. En el contexto del cambio climático se hace un análisis estadístico de la principal base de datos del National Hurricane Center para la cuenca atlántica, así como una recopilación bibliográfica, con el fin de analizar la evolución temporal y espacial de estos fenómenos. La hipótesis de partida es comprobar la existencia de un incremento en el riesgo de estas situaciones en la región de análisis, para lo que se elabora un estudio que las caracteriza y contabiliza. Los resultados señalan que, aunque con periodos de recurrencia largos, se han dado algunos eventos con destacados impactos antes del comienzo sistemático de su registro. Además, en los últimos 50 años, periodo mucho más fiable desde una perspectiva científica, se constata un aumento en su número, especialmente en las últimas décadas. Asimismo, se hace una aproximación a la población susceptible de ser afectada por las perturbaciones tropicales, la cual se estima en más de 20 millones de personas en riesgo.

Ongoing global warming increases the frequency and severity of tropical typhoons and prolonged drought, leading to forest degradation. Simultaneous and/or successive masting events and climatic extremes may thus occur frequently in the near future. If these climatic extremes occur immediately after mass seed reproduction, their effects on individual trees are expected to be very severe because mass reproduction decreases carbohydrate reserves. While the effects of either a single climate extreme or masting alone on tree resilience/growth have received past research attention, understanding the cumulative effects of such multiple events remains challenging and is crucial for predicting future forest changes. Here, we report tree hazards compound by two successive climate extremes, a tropical typhoon and prolonged drought, after mass reproduction in an endemic tree species (Distylium lepidotum Nakai) on oceanic islands. Across individual trees, the starch stored within the sapwood of branchlets significantly decreased with reproductive efforts (fruit mass/shoot mass ratio). Typhoon damage significantly decreased not only the total leaf area of apical shoots but also the maximum photosynthetic rates. During the 5-month period after the typhoon, the mortality of large branchlets (8–10-mm diameter) increased with decreasing stored starch when the typhoon hit. During the prolonged summer drought in the next year, the recovery of total leaf area, stored starch, and hydraulic conductivity was negatively correlated with the stored starch at the typhoon. These data indicate that the level of stored starch within branchlets is the driving factor determining tree regrowth or dieback, and the restoration of carbohydrates after mass reproduction is synergistically delayed by such climate extremes. Stored carbohydrates are the major cumulative factor affecting individual tree resilience, resulting in their historical effects. Because of highly variable carbohydrate levels among in

Marine lakes are emerging ecological and evolutionary natural experimental systems, with genetically isolated resident populations that exhibit extreme population dynamics and rapid phenotypic change. Marine lakes are posited to be marine islands, however, unlike terrestrial islands for which rich models have been developed over the past half-century, we know little of the mechanisms driving changes in marine lakes. This is a critical knowledge gap in efforts to reconcile theory on, or distinguish differences among, island and island-like systems. To reduce this critical knowledge gap, we present a mathematical model describing marine lakes based on a case study of Jellyfish Lake (Ongeim’l Tketau, Mecherchar: OTM), Palau. Empirical data show that marine lakes exhibit delayed and reduced tidal motions, suggesting exchange of a limited amount of water with the neighboring (‘mainland’) ocean. Our model tracks changes in lake level, allowing determination of an exchange rate that is a physical null model for biological colonization and a proxy for colonization distance in island biogeography theory. In addition, we track horizontally averaged in-lake quantities such as salinity and temperature (i.e., marine weather, climate) and stratification (i.e., habitat) — that are known to influence resident species’ distributions and population dynamics — by solving an advection-diffusion equation. We find that weather, ocean conditions, groundwater, and exchanges through tunnels determine the abiotic environment in OTM. By comparing simulations and data, we estimate the difficult-to-measure properties of the surrounding groundwater — the ‘matrix’ in the vernacular of habitat islands — and give a range of realistic values for the effective diffusion coefficient. This coefficient is found to increase in a tropical storm, suggesting that other drivers can be important during perturbations.

Marine lakes are emerging ecological and evolutionary natural experimental systems, with genetically isolated resident populations that exhibit extreme population dynamics and rapid phenotypic change. Marine lakes are posited to be marine islands, however, unlike terrestrial islands for which rich models have been developed over the past half-century, we know little of the mechanisms driving changes in marine lakes. This is a critical knowledge gap in efforts to reconcile theory on, or distinguish differences among, island and island-like systems. To reduce this critical knowledge gap, we present a mathematical model describing marine lakes based on a case study of Jellyfish Lake (Ongeim’l Tketau, Mecherchar: OTM), Palau. Empirical data show that marine lakes exhibit delayed and reduced tidal motions, suggesting exchange of a limited amount of water with the neighboring (‘mainland’) ocean. Our model tracks changes in lake level, allowing determination of an exchange rate that is a physical null model for biological colonization and a proxy for colonization distance in island biogeography theory. In addition, we track horizontally averaged in-lake quantities such as salinity and temperature (i.e., marine weather, climate) and stratification (i.e., habitat) — that are known to influence resident species’ distributions and population dynamics — by solving an advection-diffusion equation. We find that weather, ocean conditions, groundwater, and exchanges through tunnels determine the abiotic environment in OTM. By comparing simulations and data, we estimate the difficult-to-measure properties of the surrounding groundwater — the ‘matrix’ in the vernacular of habitat islands — and give a range of realistic values for the effective diffusion coefficient. This coefficient is found to increase in a tropical storm, suggesting that other drivers can be important during perturbations.

Litter layers develop across a diverse array of vegetated ecosystems and undergo significant temporal compositional changes due to canopy phenological phases and disturbances. Past research on temporal dynamics of litter interception has focused primarily on litter thickness and leaf fall, yet forest phenophases can change many more litter attributes (e.g., woody debris, bark shedding, and release of reproductive materials). In this study, weekly changes in litter composition over 1 year were used to estimate litter water storage dynamics and model event-based litter interception. Litter interception substantially reduced throughfall (6–43%), and litter water storage capacity ranged from 1 to 3 mm, peaking when megastrobili release and liana leaf senescence occurred simultaneously during fall 2015. Tropical storm disturbances occurred during the sampling period, allowing evaluation of how meteorological disturbances altered litter interception. High wind speeds and intense rainfall from 2 tropical storms increased litter interception by introducing new woody debris, which, in this study, stored more water than the pre-existing woody debris. After 2 extreme weather events, a third (Hurricane Hermine) did not increase woody debris (or litter interception), suggesting that the canopy pool of branches susceptible to breakage had been largely depleted. Needle and bark shedding had minor effects on litter interception. Results suggest that the release of reproductive materials and meteorological disturbances appear to be the major compositional drivers of litter interception beyond their obvious contribution to litter thickness., Water Resources

Litter layers develop across a diverse array of vegetated ecosystems and undergo significant temporal compositional changes due to canopy phenological phases and disturbances. Past research on temporal dynamics of litter interception has focused primarily on litter thickness and leaf fall, yet forest phenophases can change many more litter attributes (e.g., woody debris, bark shedding, and release of reproductive materials). In this study, weekly changes in litter composition over 1 year were used to estimate litter water storage dynamics and model event-based litter interception. Litter interception substantially reduced throughfall (6–43%), and litter water storage capacity ranged from 1 to 3 mm, peaking when megastrobili release and liana leaf senescence occurred simultaneously during fall 2015. Tropical storm disturbances occurred during the sampling period, allowing evaluation of how meteorological disturbances altered litter interception. High wind speeds and intense rainfall from 2 tropical storms increased litter interception by introducing new woody debris, which, in this study, stored more water than the pre-existing woody debris. After 2 extreme weather events, a third (Hurricane Hermine) did not increase woody debris (or litter interception), suggesting that the canopy pool of branches susceptible to breakage had been largely depleted. Needle and bark shedding had minor effects on litter interception. Results suggest that the release of reproductive materials and meteorological disturbances appear to be the major compositional drivers of litter interception beyond their obvious contribution to litter thickness., Water Resources

We deployed five broadband three-components seismic stations in the Iles Eparses in the south-west Indian Ocean and on Mayotte Island, between April 2011 and January 2014. These small and remote oceanic islands suffer the effects of strong ocean swells that affect their coastal environments but most islands are not instrumented by wave gauges to characterize the swells. However, wave action on the coast causes high levels of ground vibrations in the solid earth, so-called microseismic noise. We use this link between the solid earth and ocean wave activity to quantify the swells locally. Spectral analyses of the continuous seismic data show clear peaks in the 0.05–0.10 Hz frequency band (periods between 10 and 20 s), corresponding to the ocean wave periods of the local swells. We analyze an example of austral swell occurring in August 2013 and a cyclonic event (Felleng) that developed in January 2013, and quantify the ground motion at each station induced by these events. In both cases, we find a linear polarization in the horizontal plane with microseismic amplitude directly correlated to the swell height (as predicted by the global swell model WaveWatchIII), and a direction of polarization close to the predicted swell propagation direction. Although this analysis has not been performed in real time, it demonstrates that terrestrial seismic stations can be efficiently used as wave gauges, and are particularly well suited for quantifying extreme swell events. This approach may therefore provide useful and cheaper alternatives to wave buoys for monitoring swells and the related environmental processes such as beach erosion or coral reef damages.

We deployed five broadband three-components seismic stations in the Iles Eparses in the south-west Indian Ocean and on Mayotte Island, between April 2011 and January 2014. These small and remote oceanic islands suffer the effects of strong ocean swells that affect their coastal environments but most islands are not instrumented by wave gauges to characterize the swells. However, wave action on the coast causes high levels of ground vibrations in the solid earth, so-called microseismic noise. We use this link between the solid earth and ocean wave activity to quantify the swells locally. Spectral analyses of the continuous seismic data show clear peaks in the 0.05–0.10 Hz frequency band (periods between 10 and 20 s), corresponding to the ocean wave periods of the local swells. We analyze an example of austral swell occurring in August 2013 and a cyclonic event (Felleng) that developed in January 2013, and quantify the ground motion at each station induced by these events. In both cases, we find a linear polarization in the horizontal plane with microseismic amplitude directly correlated to the swell height (as predicted by the global swell model WaveWatchIII), and a direction of polarization close to the predicted swell propagation direction. Although this analysis has not been performed in real time, it demonstrates that terrestrial seismic stations can be efficiently used as wave gauges, and are particularly well suited for quantifying extreme swell events. This approach may therefore provide useful and cheaper alternatives to wave buoys for monitoring swells and the related environmental processes such as beach erosion or coral reef damages.

We deployed five broadband three-components seismic stations in the Iles Eparses in the south-west Indian Ocean and on Mayotte Island, between April 2011 and January 2014. These small and remote oceanic islands suffer the effects of strong ocean swells that affect their coastal environments but most islands are not instrumented by wave gauges to characterize the swells. However, wave action on the coast causes high levels of ground vibrations in the solid earth, so-called microseismic noise. We use this link between the solid earth and ocean wave activity to quantify the swells locally. Spectral analyses of the continuous seismic data show clear peaks in the 0.05–0.10 Hz frequency band (periods between 10 and 20 s), corresponding to the ocean wave periods of the local swells. We analyze an example of austral swell occurring in August 2013 and a cyclonic event (Felleng) that developed in January 2013, and quantify the ground motion at each station induced by these events. In both cases, we find a linear polarization in the horizontal plane with microseismic amplitude directly correlated to the swell height (as predicted by the global swell model WaveWatchIII), and a direction of polarization close to the predicted swell propagation direction. Although this analysis has not been performed in real time, it demonstrates that terrestrial seismic stations can be efficiently used as wave gauges, and are particularly well suited for quantifying extreme swell events. This approach may therefore provide useful and cheaper alternatives to wave buoys for monitoring swells and the related environmental processes such as beach erosion or coral reef damages.

We deployed five broadband three-components seismic stations in the Iles Eparses in the south-west Indian Ocean and on Mayotte Island, between April 2011 and January 2014. These small and remote oceanic islands suffer the effects of strong ocean swells that affect their coastal environments but most islands are not instrumented by wave gauges to characterize the swells. However, wave action on the coast causes high levels of ground vibrations in the solid earth, so-called microseismic noise. We use this link between the solid earth and ocean wave activity to quantify the swells locally. Spectral analyses of the continuous seismic data show clear peaks in the 0.05–0.10 Hz frequency band (periods between 10 and 20 s), corresponding to the ocean wave periods of the local swells. We analyze an example of austral swell occurring in August 2013 and a cyclonic event (Felleng) that developed in January 2013, and quantify the ground motion at each station induced by these events. In both cases, we find a linear polarization in the horizontal plane with microseismic amplitude directly correlated to the swell height (as predicted by the global swell model WaveWatchIII), and a direction of polarization close to the predicted swell propagation direction. Although this analysis has not been performed in real time, it demonstrates that terrestrial seismic stations can be efficiently used as wave gauges, and are particularly well suited for quantifying extreme swell events. This approach may therefore provide useful and cheaper alternatives to wave buoys for monitoring swells and the related environmental processes such as beach erosion or coral reef damages.

RHESSI and AGILE TGFs distributions in the period 2009-2012 are compared. Analysis of differences in geographical, hourly, monthly distributions of the three main TGF production regions in Earth due to differences in lightning production and ITCZ movement is presented. A fourth region producing TGFs over Pacific not reported before is also analysed. Second analysis has been performed in order to identify preferable meteorological conditions for TGF production. Some publications suggested that regional differences in lightning/TGF ratio may be due to differences in meteorological thunderstorm and lightning production. All AGILE passes over South America (SA) in 2009-2012 has been studied. No special meteorological features characteristic of SA has been identified. TGFs are detected in situations with many lightning, thunderstorms, high CAPEs and high Top Clouds. TGFs are more probable to be detected in active situations., Preprint

High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms (TCs) and hurricanes compared to low-resolution models. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the TC simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) runs with idealized aquaplanet steady-state boundary conditions and a fixed operational storm-tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more hurricanes, simulate stronger extreme rainfall, and emulate better storm structures in the models. However, increasing model resolution does not necessarily produce stronger hurricanes in terms of maximum wind speed, minimum sea-level pressure, and mean precipitation, as the increased number of storms simulated by high-resolution models is mainly associated with weaker storms. The spatial scale at which the analyses are conducted appears to have more important control on these meteorological statistics compared to horizontal resolution of the model grid. When the simulations are analyzed on common low-resolution grids, the statistics of the hurricanes, particularly the hurricane counts, show reduced sensitivity to the horizontal grid resolution and signs of scale invariance. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms (TCs) and hurricanes compared to low-resolution models. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the TC simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) runs with idealized aquaplanet steady-state boundary conditions and a fixed operational storm-tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more hurricanes, simulate stronger extreme rainfall, and emulate better storm structures in the models. However, increasing model resolution does not necessarily produce stronger hurricanes in terms of maximum wind speed, minimum sea-level pressure, and mean precipitation, as the increased number of storms simulated by high-resolution models is mainly associated with weaker storms. The spatial scale at which the analyses are conducted appears to have more important control on these meteorological statistics compared to horizontal resolution of the model grid. When the simulations are analyzed on common low-resolution grids, the statistics of the hurricanes, particularly the hurricane counts, show reduced sensitivity to the horizontal grid resolution and signs of scale invariance. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Ocean Modelling 43-44 (2012): 112–137, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.12.008., The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameteriza, Primary funding for this study was furnished by the US Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program, under the Carolinas Coastal Processes Project.

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Ocean Modelling 43-44 (2012): 112–137, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.12.008., The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness-based parameteriza, Primary funding for this study was furnished by the US Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program, under the Carolinas Coastal Processes Project.

The suggestion from preliminary analysis of data derived from stream gauges in the Potomac River Basin is that tropical storm types generate many of the high magnitude flood events in the Potomac River Basin. The goals of this study are to 1) determine whether or not tropical storms are, in fact the primary cause of extreme floods, 2) determine whether tropical-storm characteristics, e.g., landfall location and wind speed, or climatic conditions can be used to predict extreme floods in the Potomac River Basin; and 3) evaluate the flood potential of sequential tropical storms by comparing the flood response to a single September tropical storm event (Isabel, 2003) with the flood response to a series of four September tropical storm events in 2004. All assessments utilized thirty-seven stream gauge discharge records and archival data on named tropical storm characteristics for the period 1950 to 2004. The data were used in logistical regression to establish the importance of tropical storms in flood generation. Models of the relationship between tropical storm characteristics, climatic factors, including the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; and annual peak discharge were developed using generalized linear modeling. Western Potomac River Basin flood responses to Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Ivan and Jeanne (all in 2004) were evaluated based on hydrograph and runoff characteristics. Antecedent moisture and soil moisture storage capacity, during the four storms, were also assessed using discharge data. Tropical storms and frontal storms generate most of the floods in the upper 10% of flood distributions for study. Generalized linear modeling indicates the Pacific Oscillation Index and atmospheric pressure associated with the tropical storm play a key role in the storm's ability to generate a flood. It was also determined that a single intense storm, such as Hurricane Isabel (2003), is a better flood generator than a series of closely space

We investigated several effects of global warming to hydrological and meteorological environment. JMA/MRI have carried out simulations of global warming due to doubled CO2 by using their CGCM. They downscaled those results using a 20km scale regional meteorological model. We examined the effects of global warming on hydro-meteorological environment, viz; annual average temperature, annual maximum daily precipitation, annual precipitation and maximum dry duration, using Welch’s test. As a result, mean of annual precipitation during 2080 and 2100 indicated an increasing trend that is significant at the 95% confidence level in some part of Japan, while no trend was detected in its variation. Moreover, we examined daily sea surface pressure and wind velocity at surface and 500 hPa in order to derive trend of tropical storm. The data show that percentage of intense tropical storms in total tropical storms increases when the global warming proceeds, as recently suggested by Webster et al.(2005).

This thesis presents results of an experiment to investigate the dynamics of air motions within the outflow of tropical deep convection in the upper troposphere above Darwin, Australia. The research involved analyzing in situ measurements within the anvil outflow from the Egrett aircraft and also coincident laser remote sensing measurements of cloud structure from a King Air aircraft, flying directly below the Egrett. The data included the only in situ turbulence measurements that have been obtained with a resolution of 4 meters inside of an anvil outflow. The research shows that gravity waves and coherent structures exist in the anvil outflow. High frequency gravity waves were identified from the 90ᵒ phase lag between temperature and vertical wind oscillations. The gravity waves had wavelengths of 2 – 5 km and were observed as isolated waves with less than two oscillations, or, as extended waves with several oscillations. In some instances, correlations between temperature and vertical wind oscillations had zero phase lag between them and this was consistent with Rayleigh-Bénard convective rolls. Turbulence in the outflow was observed to be intense within patches separated by more quiescent flow. This turbulence had some characteristics that were unique in comparison to previous turbulence measurements at similar altitudes in the jet stream or midlatitude cirrus clouds. The ratio of the power spectral density of vertical wind fluctuations to the horizontal wind fluctuations was greater in the anvil outflow in comparison to the measurements in turbulence generated by shear in mid latitude jet stream and cirrus clouds. The relative magnitude of the vertical wind fluctuation spectrum decreases at all wavelengths with increasing distance away from the core region of the storm. This constitutes the first evidence that is consistent with theoretical predictions of “stratified turbulence.” Measurements in flights above and below the outflow base indicate that momentum flu