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Ionospheric conductance is a crucial factor in regulating the closure of magnetospheric field-aligned currents through the ionosphere as Hall and Pedersen currents. Despite its importance in predictive investigations of the magnetosphere - ionosphere coupling, the estimation of ionospheric conductance in the auroral region is precarious in most global first-principles based models. This impreciseness in estimating the auroral conductance impedes both our understanding and predictive capabilities of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system during extreme space weather events. In this article, we address this concern, with the development of an advanced Conductance Model for Extreme Events (CMEE) that estimates the auroral conductance from field aligned current values. CMEE has been developed using nonlinear regression over a year's worth of one-minute resolution output from assimilative maps, specifically including times of extreme driving of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The model also includes provisions to enhance the conductance in the aurora using additional adjustments to refine the auroral oval. CMEE has been incorporated within the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for usage in space weather simulations. This paper compares performance of CMEE against the existing conductance model in RIM, through a validation process for six space weather events. The performance analysis indicates overall improvement in the ionospheric feedback to ground-based space weather forecasts. Specifically, the model is able to improve the prediction of ionospheric currents which impact the simulated dB/dt and {\Delta}B, resulting in substantial improvements in dB/dt predictive skill.

Ionospheric conductance is a crucial factor in regulating the closure of magnetospheric field-aligned currents through the ionosphere as Hall and Pedersen currents. Despite its importance in predictive investigations of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling, the estimation of ionospheric conductance in the auroral region is precarious in most global first-principles-based models. This impreciseness in estimating the auroral conductance impedes both our understanding and predictive capabilities of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system during extreme space weather events. In this article, we address this concern, with the development of an advanced Conductance Model for Extreme Events (CMEE) that estimates the auroral conductance from field-aligned current values. CMEE has been developed using nonlinear regression over a year's worth of 1-min resolution output from assimilative maps, specifically including times of extreme driving of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The model also includes provisions to enhance the conductance in the aurora using additional adjustments to refine the auroral oval. CMEE has been incorporated within the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) for usage in space weather simulations. This paper compares performance of CMEE against the existing conductance model in RIM, through a validation process for six space weather events. The performance analysis indicates overall improvement in the ionospheric feedback to ground-based space weather forecasts. Specifically, the model is able to improve the prediction of ionospheric currents, which impact the simulated dB/dt and Delta B, resulting in substantial improvements in dB/dt predictive skill.

This study is focused on improving the poorly understood seasonal dependence of northern high-latitude F region thermospheric winds under active geomagnetic conditions. The gaps in our understanding of the dynamic high-latitude thermosphere are largely due to the sparseness of thermospheric wind measurements. With current observational facilities, it is infeasible to construct a synoptic picture of thermospheric winds, but enough data with wide spatial and temporal coverage have accumulated to construct a meaningful statistical analysis. We use long-term data from eight ground-based and two space-based instruments to derive climatological wind patterns as a function of magnetic local time, magnetic latitude, and season. These diverse data sets possess different geometries and different spatial and solar activity coverage. The major challenge is to combine these disparate data sets into a coherent picture while overcoming the sampling limitations and biases among them. In our previous study (focused on quiet time winds), we found bias in the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) cross-track winds. Here we empirically quantify the GOCE bias and use it as a correction profile for removing apparent bias before empirical wind formulation. The assimilated wind patterns exhibit all major characteristics of high-latitude neutral circulation. The latitudinal extent of duskside circulation expands almost 10∘ from winter to summer. The dawnside circulation subsides from winter to summer. Disturbance winds derived from geomagnetic active and quiet winds show strong seasonal and latitudinal variability. Comparisons between wind patterns derived here and Disturbance Wind Model (DWM07) (which have no seasonal dependence) suggest that DWM07 is skewed toward summertime conditions., Astrodynamics & Space Missions

This study is focused on improving the poorly understood seasonal dependence of northern high-latitude F region thermospheric winds under active geomagnetic conditions. The gaps in our understanding of the dynamic high-latitude thermosphere are largely due to the sparseness of thermospheric wind measurements. With current observational facilities, it is infeasible to construct a synoptic picture of thermospheric winds, but enough data with wide spatial and temporal coverage have accumulated to construct a meaningful statistical analysis. We use long-term data from eight ground-based and two space-based instruments to derive climatological wind patterns as a function of magnetic local time, magnetic latitude, and season. These diverse data sets possess different geometries and different spatial and solar activity coverage. The major challenge is to combine these disparate data sets into a coherent picture while overcoming the sampling limitations and biases among them. In our previous study (focused on quiet time winds), we found bias in the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) cross-track winds. Here we empirically quantify the GOCE bias and use it as a correction profile for removing apparent bias before empirical wind formulation. The assimilated wind patterns exhibit all major characteristics of high-latitude neutral circulation. The latitudinal extent of duskside circulation expands almost 10∘ from winter to summer. The dawnside circulation subsides from winter to summer. Disturbance winds derived from geomagnetic active and quiet winds show strong seasonal and latitudinal variability. Comparisons between wind patterns derived here and Disturbance Wind Model (DWM07) (which have no seasonal dependence) suggest that DWM07 is skewed toward summertime conditions., Astrodynamics & Space Missions

Electron precipitation down to the atmosphere due to wave-particle scattering in the magnetosphere contributes significantly to the auroral ionospheric conductivity. In order to obtain the auroral conductivity in global MHD models that are incapable of capturing kinetic physics in the magnetosphere, MHD parameters are often used to estimate electron precipitation flux for the conductivity calculation. Such an MHD approach, however, lacks self-consistency in representing the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling processes. In this study we improve the coupling processes in global models with a more physical method. We calculate the physics-based electron precipitation from the ring current and map it to the ionospheric altitude for solving the ionospheric electrodynamics. In particular, we use the BATS-R-US (Block Adaptive Tree Scheme-Roe type-Upstream) MHD model coupled with the kinetic ring current model RAM-SCB (Ring current-Atmosphere interaction Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (B)) that solves pitch angle-dependent electron distribution functions, to study the global circulation dynamics during the 25–26 January 2013 storm event. Since the electron precipitation loss is mostly governed by wave-particle resonant scattering in the magnetosphere, we further investigate two loss methods of specifying electron precipitation loss associated with wave-particle interactions: (1) using pitch angle diffusion coefficients Dαα(E,α) determined from the quasi-linear theory, with wave spectral and plasma density obtained from statistical observations (named as “diffusion coefficient method”) and (2) using electron lifetimes τ(E) independent on pitch angles inferred from the above diffusion coefficients (named as “lifetime method”). We found that both loss methods demonstrate similar temporal evolution of the trapped ring current electrons, indicating that the impact of using different kinds of loss rates is small on the trapped electron population. However, for the preci

The accuracy of global atmospheric models used to predict the middle/lower thermosphere characteristics is still an open topic. Uncertainties in the prediction of the gas properties in the thermosphere lead to inaccurate computations of the drag force on space objects (i.e. satellites or debris). Currently the lifetime of space objects and therefore the population of debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) cannot be quantified with a satisfactory degree of accuracy. In this paper, the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) developed at the University of Michigan has been validated in order to provide detailed simulations of the thermosphere. First, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of the boundary conditions on the final simulations results. Then, results of simulations have been compared with flight measurements from the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and with existing semi-empirical atmospheric models (IRI and MSIS). The comparison shows a linear dependency of the neutral density values with respect to the solar activity. In particular, GITM shows an over-predicting or under-predicting behaviour under high or low solar activity respectively. The reasons for such behaviour can be attributed to a wrong implementation of the chemical processes or the gas transport properties in the model.

The accuracy of global atmospheric models used to predict the middle/lower thermosphere characteristics is still an open topic. Uncertainties in the prediction of the gas properties in the thermosphere lead to inaccurate computations of the drag force on space objects (i.e. satellites or debris). Currently the lifetime of space objects and therefore the population of debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) cannot be quantified with a satisfactory degree of accuracy. In this paper, the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) developed at the University of Michigan has been validated in order to provide detailed simulations of the thermosphere. First, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of the boundary conditions on the final simulations results. Then, results of simulations have been compared with flight measurements from the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and with existing semi-empirical atmospheric models (IRI and MSIS). The comparison shows a linear dependency of the neutral density values with respect to the solar activity. In particular, GITM shows an over-predicting or under-predicting behaviour under high or low solar activity respectively. The reasons for such behaviour can be attributed to a wrong implementation of the chemical processes or the gas transport properties in the model.

Using a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic general circulation model, we investigate the response of the thermosphere-ionosphere system to the 5-6 August 2011 major geomagnetic storm. The model is driven by measured storm-time input data of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), solar activity, and auroral activity. Simulations for quiet steady conditions over the same period are performed as well in order to assess the response of the neutral and plasma parameters to the storm. During the storm, the high-latitude mean ion flows are enhanced by up to 150-180%. Largest ion flows are found in the main phase of the storm. Overall, the global mean neutral temperature increases by up to 15%, while the maximum thermal response is higher in the winter Southern Hemisphere at high-latitudes than the summer Northern Hemisphere: 40% vs. 20%increase in high-latitude mean temperature, respectively. The global mean Joule heating increases by more than a factor of three. There are distinct hemispheric differences in the magnitude and morphology of the horizontal ion flows and thermospheric flows during the different phases of the storm. The largest hemispheric difference in the thermospheric circulation is found during the main and recovery phases of the storm, demonstrating appreciable geographical variations. The advective forcing is found to contribute to the modeled hemispheric differences., Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP)

To address challenges of assessment of modeling capabilities, the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) initiated a series of community-wide model validation projects, such as the GEM, CEDAR and GEM-CEDAR Modeling Challenges. The CEDAR ETI (Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere) Challenge focused on the ability of ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) models to reproduce basic IT system parameters, such as electron and neutral densities, NmF2, hmF2, and TEC. Model-data time series comparisons were performed for a set of selected events with different levels of geomagnetic activity (quiet, moderate, storms). The follow-on CEDAR-GEM Challenge aims to quantify geomagnetic storm impacts on the IT system. On-going studies include quantifying the storm energy input, such as increase in auroral precipitation and Joule heating, and quantifying the storm-time variations of neutral density and TEC. The community-wide model validation activities involve international collaborations (e.g., between the CCMC and UK Met Office) to enhance the studies. In this paper, we focus on results of validation of IT models for reproducing storm impacts on TEC. In order to quantify storm impacts on TEC, we considered several parameters: TEC changes compared to quiet time (the day before storm), TEC difference between 24-hour intervals, and maximum increase/decrease during the storm. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the parameters during storm events (e.g., 2006 AGU storm) using ground-based GPS TEC measurements in several longitude sectors where data coverage is relatively better. The latitudinal variations were also studied. We obtained modeled TEC from various IT models. The parameters from the models were compared with each other and with the observed values. We quantified performance of the models in reproducing the TEC variations during the storm using skill scores. Model output and observational data used for the challenge will be permanently posted at the CCMC web

Using a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic general circulation model, we investigate the response of the thermosphere-ionosphere system to the 5-6 August 2011 major geomagnetic storm. The model is driven by measured storm-time input data of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), solar activity, and auroral activity. Simulations for quiet steady conditions over the same period are performed as well in order to assess the response of the neutral and plasma parameters to the storm. During the storm, the high-latitude mean ion flows are enhanced by up to 150-180%. Largest ion flows are found in the main phase of the storm. Overall, the global mean neutral temperature increases by up to 15%, while the maximum thermal response is higher in the winter Southern Hemisphere at high-latitudes than the summer Northern Hemisphere: 40% vs. 20%increase in high-latitude mean temperature, respectively. The global mean Joule heating increases by more than a factor of three. There are distinct hemispheric differences in the magnitude and morphology of the horizontal ion flows and thermospheric flows during the different phases of the storm. The largest hemispheric difference in the thermospheric circulation is found during the main and recovery phases of the storm, demonstrating appreciable geographical variations. The advective forcing is found to contribute to the modeled hemispheric differences., Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP)

The main goals of the Community-based Whole Magnetosphere Model (CWMM) project were to: 1. Add more models to the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), including a plasmasphere model, a polar wind model, a radiation belt model, and a new ring current model. 2. Improve the physics within the existing models and improve the physics in the coupling between the different models. 3. Quantify the improvements within the CWMM as the models are added and the physics is altered. This will be done through running a series of events over and over again as the code(s) change, and through a real-time interface where the validation is performed automatically., The original document contains color images.

A major driver in the advancement of geophysical sciences is improvement in the quality and resolution of data for use in scientific analysis, discovery, and for assimilation into or validation of empirical and physical models. The need for more and better measurements together with improvements in technical capabilities is driving the ambition to deploy arrays of autonomous geophysical instrument platforms in remote regions. This is particularly true in the southern polar regions where measurements are presently sparse due to the remoteness, lack of infrastructure, and harshness of the environment. The need for the acquisition of continuous long-term data from remote polar locations exists across geophysical disciplines and is a generic infrastructure problem. The infrastructure, however, to support autonomous instrument platforms in polar environments is still in the early stages of development. We report here the development of an autonomous low-power magnetic variation data collection system. Following 2 years of field testing at the south pole station, the system is being reproduced to establish a dense chain of stations on the Antarctic plateau along the 40 degrees magnetic meridian. The system is designed to operate for at least 5 years unattended and to provide data access via satellite communication. The system will store 1 s measurements of the magnetic field variation (< 0.2 nT resolution) in three vector components plus a variety of engineering status and environment parameters. We believe that the data collection platform can be utilized by a variety of low-power instruments designed for low-temperature operation. The design, technical characteristics, and operation results are presented here.

During steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) events the magnetosphere is active, yet there are no data signatures of a large scale reconfiguration, such as a substorm. While this definition has been used for years it fails to elucidate the true physics that is occurring within the magnetosphere, which is that the dayside merging rate and the night-side reconnection rate balance. Thus, it is suggested that these events be renamed Balanced Reconnection Intervals (BRIs). This paper investigates four diverse BRI events that support the idea that new name for these events is needed. The 3-4 February 1998 event falls well into the classic definition of an SMC set forth by Sergeev et al. (1996), while the other challenge some previous notions about SMCs. The 15 February 1998 event fails to end with a substorm expansion and concludes as the magnetospheric activity slowly quiets. The third event, 22-23 December 2000, begins with a slow build up of magnetospheric activity, thus there is no initiating substorm expansion. The last event, 17 February 1998, is more active (larger AE, AL and cross polar cap potential) than previously studied SMCs. It also has more small scale activity than the other events studied here.

Over the past century, the geosciences have developed an impressive capability to understand and anticipate events occurring within the Earth system.The past decade has seen an explosion in quantitative geoscience. Progress is continuing to accelerate as advances in observational systems and computational tools are allowing simulations and predictions of geophysical processes with a temporal and spatial resolution unprecedented in human history. With these advances comes the necessity to reflect on the current state of geoscientific research, to reassess the direction in which research should be progressing, and to redefine the goals that can be realistically achieved.

Over the past century, the geosciences have developed an impressive capability to understand and anticipate events occurring within the Earth system.The past decade has seen an explosion in quantitative geoscience. Progress is continuing to accelerate as advances in observational systems and computational tools are allowing simulations and predictions of geophysical processes with a temporal and spatial resolution unprecedented in human history. With these advances comes the necessity to reflect on the current state of geoscientific research, to reassess the direction in which research should be progressing, and to redefine the goals that can be realistically achieved.