1. Forecasting air travel demand as the initial stage in a revenue management process: challenges in the presence of exogenous factors
- Author
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Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Física, Kuljanin, Jovana, Vallès Huerta, Víctor, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Física, Kuljanin, Jovana, and Vallès Huerta, Víctor
- Abstract
The aviation industry has experienced substantial growth in a highly competitive environment, especially during recent years. One of the consequences that this scenario has caused is that, in order to remain competitive in the market, airlines have had to perform continuous innovations in their seat pricing strategies to optimise the profitability of their flights. The concept of Revenue Management involves strategically making decisions during the sales process, with the primary objective of maximising the total revenue that can be obtained. One of the key aspects that plays a fundamental role throughout this process lays on modelling future demand, as well as the various behaviours that potential customers may exhibit. This project primarily focuses on two pillars: the categorization of the different types of demand in the sale of airline tickets depending on the behaviour of customers and the forecast of such demand in the short term. Additionally, the entire project has been carried out using real data obtained from historical bookings. Throughout this work, various traditional methods of time series forecasting are studied and analysed and, with the obtained results, a validation process is conducted and a comparison of the performance of each of the forecasting methods is carried out to ultimately choose the most appropriate method in each case. Finally, the obtained results are used to develop a final forecast of the demand for a specific flight in a certain date that allows to optimise revenue by means of an allocation of fare classes for different seats on the same flight after determining the availability of each fare class that should be offered throughout the entire sales process., Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::8 - Treball Decent i Creixement Econòmic
- Published
- 2024