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1. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Author: Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jorgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drueke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogues-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jorgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drueke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogues-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, and Rockström, Johan
Abstract: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Published: 2023
Full Text: View/download PDF

2. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Author: Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, and Rockström, Johan
Abstract: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Published: 2023
Full Text: View/download PDF

3. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Author: Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, and Rockström, Johan
Abstract: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Published: 2023
Full Text: View/download PDF

4. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Author: Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, and Rockström, Johan
Abstract: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Published: 2023
Full Text: View/download PDF

5. Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Author: Rahmstorf, Stefan, Box, Jason E., Feulner, Georg, Mann, Michael E., Robinson, Alexander James, Rutherford, Scott, Schaffernicht, Erik J., Rahmstorf, Stefan, Box, Jason E., Feulner, Georg, Mann, Michael E., Robinson, Alexander James, Rutherford, Scott, and Schaffernicht, Erik J.
Abstract: © Nature Publishing Group. We thank O. Sherwood for providing coral data. M.E.M. acknowledges support for this work from the ATM program of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0902133)., Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC., National Science Foundation (NSF), EE.UU., Depto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Fac. de Ciencias Físicas, TRUE, pub
Published: 2023

6. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Author: Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, and Rockström, Johan
Abstract: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Published: 2023

7. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Author: Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, and Rockström, Johan
Abstract: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Published: 2023
Full Text: View/download PDF

8. Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

Author: Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Lucht, Wolfgang, Bendtsen, Jørgen, Cornell, Sarah E., Donges, Jonathan F., Drüke, Markus, Fetzer, Ingo, Bala, Govindasamy, von Bloh, Werner, Feulner, Georg, Fiedler, Stephanie, Gerten, Dieter, Gleeson, Tom, Hofmann, Matthias, Huiskamp, Willem, Kummu, Matti, Mohan, Chinchu, Nogués-Bravo, David, Petri, Stefan, Porkka, Miina, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tobian, Arne, Virkki, Vili, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Weber, Lisa, and Rockström, Johan
Abstract: This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
Published: 2023

9. Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate

Author: Robinson, Alexander James, Lehmann, Jascha, Barriopedro Cepero, David, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Coumou, Dim, Robinson, Alexander James, Lehmann, Jascha, Barriopedro Cepero, David, Rahmstorf, Stefan, and Coumou, Dim
Abstract: © 2021 The Authors. A.R. is supported by the Ramón y Cajal Program of the Spanish Ministry for Science, Innovation, and Universities (grant no. RYC-2016-20587). D.C. is supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), grant 016.Vidi.171011. D.B. acknowledges support from the H2020 EU project CLINT (Grant Agreement No. 101003876)., Over the last decade, the world warmed by 0.25 °C, in-line with the roughly linear trend since the 1970s. Here we present updated analyses showing that this seemingly small shift has led to the emergence of heat extremes that would be virtually impossible without anthropogenic global warming. Also, record rainfall extremes have continued to increase worldwide and, on average, 1 in 4 rainfall records in the last decade can be attributed to climate change. Tropical regions, comprised of vulnerable countries that typically contributed least to anthropogenic climate change, continue to see the strongest increase in extremes., Unión Europea. H2020, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN), Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), Depto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Fac. de Ciencias Físicas, TRUE, pub
Published: 2021

10. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Abstract: Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
Published: 2021
Full Text: View/download PDF

11. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Abstract: Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
Published: 2021
Full Text: View/download PDF

12. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Alcaraz Sendra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Alcaraz Sendra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Abstract: Non-technical summary: We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary: A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary: How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
Published: 2021
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13. 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2021

Author: Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, and Winkelmann, Ricarda
Published: 2021

14. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Published: 2021
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15. Changes in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate favor winter flooding and summer drought over Europe

Author: Rousi, Efi, Selten, Frank, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Coumou, Dim, Rousi, Efi, Selten, Frank, Rahmstorf, Stefan, and Coumou, Dim
Abstract: Changes in atmospheric circulation under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are important because of their implications for weather extremes and associated societal risks. However, uncertainties in models and future projections are still large and drivers behind circulation changes are not well understood. Particularly for Europe, a potential weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is considered important as it affects SST patterns and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes and, subsequently, European climate. Here we detect and characterize changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic under increasingCO2 concentrations in simulations of a very highresolution, fully coupled climate model (CM2.6) with a realistic representation of the AMOC. We use an objective clustering technique (self-organizing maps) and validate the model's clusters against reanalysis data.We compare the frequency of those patterns in a CO2 doubling experiment, characterized by an AMOC decline, with those in a preindustrial run, and find statistically significant changes. The most robust findings are 1) a ;30% increase in zonal flow regimes in February, relevant for flood risk in northwestern Europe, and 2) a ;60% increase in anticyclonic (high pressure) circulation directly west of the United Kingdom in August, relevant for western and central European drought. A robust decrease in the frequency of Scandinavian blocking is also seen across most months and seasons. Despite the uncertainties regarding atmospheric circulation response to climate change, our findings contribute to the increasing evidence for the emergence of robust high-impact changes over Europe.
Published: 2021
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16. 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2021

Author: Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, and Winkelmann, Ricarda
Published: 2021

17. 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2021

Author: Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Matthews, H. Damon, Rogelj, Joeri, Redman, Aaron, Mengis, Nadine, Hebden, Sopie, Nolan, Rachael, Hepach, Helmke, Donges, Jonathan F., Martin, Maria A., Büchs, Milena, Edwards, Clea, Lorek, Sylvia, Green, Jessica F., Pihl, Erik, Fuss, Sabine, Gärtner, Juliana, Lotze, Heike, Bowen, Kathryn, Sioen, Giles B., Woodcock, James, Alcaraz Sedra, Olga, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Brando, Paul M., Brodie Rudolph, Tanya, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Donkor, Felix K., Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Engel, Anja, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cecile A. J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hirota, Marina, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, McCauley, Darren, M'ebratu, Desta, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Reid, Colleen E., Saunois, Marielle, Spangenberg, Joachim H., Sterner, Thomas N. S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, and Winkelmann, Ricarda
Published: 2021

18. Ten new insights in climate science 2021:A horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Abstract: Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
Published: 2021

19. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Published: 2021
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20. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 – a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Published: 2021
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21. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Abstract: Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
Published: 2021
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22. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Abstract: Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
Published: 2021
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23. Ten new insights in climate science 2021 : a horizon scan

Author: Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Woodcock, James, Martin, Maria A., Sendra, Olga Alcaraz, Bastos, Ana, Bauer, Nico, Bertram, Christoph, Blenckner, Thorsten, Bowen, Kathryn, Brando, Paulo M., Rudolph, Tanya Brodie, Büchs, Milena, Bustamante, Mercedes, Chen, Deliang, Cleugh, Helen, Dasgupta, Purnamita, Denton, Fatima, Donges, Jonathan F., Donkor, Felix Kwabena, Duan, Hongbo, Duarte, Carlos M., Ebi, Kristie L., Edwards, Clea M., Engel, Anja, Fisher, Eleanor, Fuss, Sabine, Gaertner, Juliana, Gettelman, Andrew, Girardin, Cécile A.J., Golledge, Nicholas R., Green, Jessica F., Grose, Michael R., Hashizume, Masahiro, Hebden, Sophie, Hepach, Helmke, Hirota, Marina, Hsu, Huang-Hsiung, Kojima, Satoshi, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lorek, Sylvia, Lotze, Heike K., Matthews, H. Damon, McCauley, Darren, Mebratu, Desta, Mengis, Nadine, Nolan, Rachael H., Pihl, Erik, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Redman, Aaron, Reid, Colleen E., Rockström, Johan, Rogelj, Joeri, Saunois, Marielle, Sayer, Lizzie, Schlosser, Peter, Sioen, Giles B., Spangenberg, Joachim H., Stammer, Detlef, Sterner, Thomas N.S., Stevens, Nicola, Thonicke, Kirsten, Tian, Hanqin, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Woodcock, James
Abstract: Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
Published: 2021
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24. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica

Author: Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, Cooper, Alan, Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, and Cooper, Alan
Abstract: The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice–climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.
Published: 2020

25. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica

Author: Turney, Chris S.M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoë A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, Cooper, Alan, Turney, Chris S.M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoë A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, and Cooper, Alan
Abstract: The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice–climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.
Published: 2020

26. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica

Author: Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, Cooper, Alan, Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, and Cooper, Alan
Published: 2020

27. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica

Author: Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, Cooper, Alan, Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, and Cooper, Alan
Published: 2020

28. Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Author: Horton, Benjamin P., Khan, Nicole, Cahill, Niamh, Lee, Janice S. H., Shaw, Timothy A., Garner, Andra J, Kemp, Andrew C., Engelhart, Simon E., Rahmstorf, Stefan, Horton, Benjamin P., Khan, Nicole, Cahill, Niamh, Lee, Janice S. H., Shaw, Timothy A., Garner, Andra J, Kemp, Andrew C., Engelhart, Simon E., and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Abstract: Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Published: 2020

29. Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey

Author: Horton, Benjamin P., Khan, Nicole, Cahill, Niamh, Lee, Janice S. H., Shaw, Timothy A., Garner, Andra J, Kemp, Andrew C., Engelhart, Simon E., Rahmstorf, Stefan, Horton, Benjamin P., Khan, Nicole, Cahill, Niamh, Lee, Janice S. H., Shaw, Timothy A., Garner, Andra J, Kemp, Andrew C., Engelhart, Simon E., and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Abstract: Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Published: 2020

30. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica

Author: Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, Cooper, Alan, Sub Physical Oceanography, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Turney, Chris S. M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoe A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, and Cooper, Alan
Published: 2020

31. Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica

Author: Turney, Chris S.M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoë A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, Cooper, Alan, Turney, Chris S.M., Fogwill, Christopher J., Golledge, Nicholas R., McKay, Nicholas P., van Sebille, Erik, Jones, Richard T., Etheridge, David, Rubino, Mauro, Thornton, David P., Davies, Siwan M., Ramsey, Christopher Bronk, Thomas, Zoë A., Bird, Michael I., Munksgaard, Niels C., Kohno, Mika, Woodward, John, Winter, Kate, Weyrich, Laura S., Rootes, Camilla M., Millman, Helen, Albert, Paul G., Rivera, Andres, van Ommen, Tas, Curran, Mark, Moy, Andrew, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kawamura, Kenji, Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter, Weber, Michael E., Manning, Christina J., Young, Jennifer, and Cooper, Alan
Abstract: The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice–climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.
Published: 2020

32. Concerns of young protesters are justified

Author: Hagedorn, Gregor, Kalmus, Peter, Mann, Michael, Vicca, Sara, Van den Berge, Joke, van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal, Bourg, Dominique, Rotmans, Jan, Kaaronen, Roope, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kromp-Kolb, Helga, Kirchengast, Gottfried, Knutti, Reto, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Thalmann, Philippe, Cretney, Raven, Green, Alison, Anderson, Kevin, Hedberg, Martin, Nilsson, Douglas, Kuttner, Amita, Hayhoe, Katharine, Hagedorn, Gregor, Kalmus, Peter, Mann, Michael, Vicca, Sara, Van den Berge, Joke, van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal, Bourg, Dominique, Rotmans, Jan, Kaaronen, Roope, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kromp-Kolb, Helga, Kirchengast, Gottfried, Knutti, Reto, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Thalmann, Philippe, Cretney, Raven, Green, Alison, Anderson, Kevin, Hedberg, Martin, Nilsson, Douglas, Kuttner, Amita, and Hayhoe, Katharine
Published: 2019
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33. Concerns of young protesters are justified

Author: Hagedorn, Gregor, Kalmus, Peter, Mann, Michael, Vicca, Sara, Van den Berge, Joke, Van Ypersele, Jean Pascal, Bourg, Dominique, Rotmans, Jan, Kaaronen, Roope, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kromp-Kolb, Helga, Kirchengast, Gottfried, Knutti, Reto, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Thalmann, Philippe, Cretney, Raven, Green, Alison, Anderson, Kevin, Hedberg, Martin, Nilsson, Douglas, Kuttner, Amita, Hayhoe, Katharine, Hagedorn, Gregor, Kalmus, Peter, Mann, Michael, Vicca, Sara, Van den Berge, Joke, Van Ypersele, Jean Pascal, Bourg, Dominique, Rotmans, Jan, Kaaronen, Roope, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kromp-Kolb, Helga, Kirchengast, Gottfried, Knutti, Reto, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Thalmann, Philippe, Cretney, Raven, Green, Alison, Anderson, Kevin, Hedberg, Martin, Nilsson, Douglas, Kuttner, Amita, and Hayhoe, Katharine
Published: 2019

34. Climate tipping points - too risky to bet against

Author: Lenton, Timothy M., Rockström, Johan, Gaffney, Owen, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Lenton, Timothy M., Rockström, Johan, Gaffney, Owen, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Published: 2019

35. Climate tipping points - too risky to bet against

Author: Lenton, Timothy M., Rockström, Johan, Gaffney, Owen, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Lenton, Timothy M., Rockström, Johan, Gaffney, Owen, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
Published: 2019

36. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Author: Caesar, Levke, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Robinson, A., Feulner, G., Saba, V., Caesar, Levke, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Robinson, A., Feulner, G., and Saba, V.
Abstract: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3±1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region— and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of recordlow AMOC values in recent years.
Published: 2018

37. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Author: Caesar, Levke, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Robinson, A., Feulner, G., Saba, V., Caesar, Levke, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Robinson, A., Feulner, G., and Saba, V.
Abstract: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3±1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region— and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of recordlow AMOC values in recent years.
Published: 2018

38. Three years to safeguard our climate

Author: Figueres, Christiana, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Whiteman, Gail, Rockström, Johan, Hobley, Anthony, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Figueres, Christiana, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Whiteman, Gail, Rockström, Johan, Hobley, Anthony, and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Published: 2017
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39. Three years to safeguard our climate

Author: Figueres, Christiana, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Whiteman, Gail, Rockstrom, Johan, Hobley, Anthony, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Figueres, Christiana, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Whiteman, Gail, Rockstrom, Johan, Hobley, Anthony, and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Abstract: Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world's carbon dioxide by 2020.
Published: 2017

40. Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls

Author: Rahmstorf, Stefan, Foster, Grant, Cahill, Niamh, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Foster, Grant, and Cahill, Niamh
Abstract: Global surface temperatures continue to rise. In most surface temperature data sets, the years 2014, 2015 and again 2016 set new global heat records since the start of regular measurements. Never before have three record years occurred in a row. We show that this recent streak of record heat does not in itself provide statistical evidence for an acceleration of global warming, nor was it preceded by a 'slowdown period' with a significantly reduced rate of warming. Rather, the data are fully consistent with a steady global warming trend since the 1970s, superimposed with random, stationary, short-term variability. All recent variations in short-term trends are well within what was to be expected, based on the observed warming trend and the observed variability from the 1970s up to the year 2000. We discuss some pitfalls of statistical analysis of global temperatures which have led to incorrect claims of an unexpected or significant warming slowdown.
Published: 2017

41. Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls

Author: Rahmstorf, Stefan, Foster, Grant, Cahill, Niamh, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Foster, Grant, and Cahill, Niamh
Abstract: Global surface temperatures continue to rise. In most surface temperature data sets, the years 2014, 2015 and again 2016 set new global heat records since the start of regular measurements. Never before have three record years occurred in a row. We show that this recent streak of record heat does not in itself provide statistical evidence for an acceleration of global warming, nor was it preceded by a 'slowdown period' with a significantly reduced rate of warming. Rather, the data are fully consistent with a steady global warming trend since the 1970s, superimposed with random, stationary, short-term variability. All recent variations in short-term trends are well within what was to be expected, based on the observed warming trend and the observed variability from the 1970s up to the year 2000. We discuss some pitfalls of statistical analysis of global temperatures which have led to incorrect claims of an unexpected or significant warming slowdown.
Published: 2017

42. Zukunft der Golfstromzirkulation : Fakten und Hintergründe aus der Forschung = Future of the Gulf Stream circulation

Author: Beck, Marie-Luise, Konitzer, Sebastian, Weidinger, Elisabeth, Peinert, Rolf, Latif, Mojib, Mulitza, Stefan, Nürnberg, Dirk, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Rhein, Monika, Schulz, Michael, Stammer, Detlef, von Storch, Jin-Song, Visbeck, Martin, Beck, Marie-Luise, Konitzer, Sebastian, Weidinger, Elisabeth, Peinert, Rolf, Latif, Mojib, Mulitza, Stefan, Nürnberg, Dirk, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Rhein, Monika, Schulz, Michael, Stammer, Detlef, von Storch, Jin-Song, and Visbeck, Martin
Abstract: Diese Broschüre gibt einen verständlichen Überblick über den wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstand zur Golfstromzirkulation. Forscherinnen und Forscher ordnen verwirrende und oft widersprüchliche Informationen ein, die in der Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. Die Broschüre bietet Orientierung über plausible Zukunftsszenarien und relevante Forschungsfragen.
Published: 2017

43. Three years to safeguard our climate

Author: Figueres, Christiana, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Whiteman, Gail, Rockstrom, Johan, Hobley, Anthony, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Figueres, Christiana, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Whiteman, Gail, Rockstrom, Johan, Hobley, Anthony, and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Abstract: Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world's carbon dioxide by 2020.
Published: 2017

44. Zukunft der Golfstromzirkulation : Fakten und Hintergründe aus der Forschung = Future of the Gulf Stream circulation

Author: Beck, Marie-Luise, Konitzer, Sebastian, Weidinger, Elisabeth, Peinert, Rolf, Latif, Mojib, Mulitza, Stefan, Nürnberg, Dirk, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Rhein, Monika, Schulz, Michael, Stammer, Detlef, von Storch, Jin-Song, Visbeck, Martin, Beck, Marie-Luise, Konitzer, Sebastian, Weidinger, Elisabeth, Peinert, Rolf, Latif, Mojib, Mulitza, Stefan, Nürnberg, Dirk, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Rhein, Monika, Schulz, Michael, Stammer, Detlef, von Storch, Jin-Song, and Visbeck, Martin
Abstract: Diese Broschüre gibt einen verständlichen Überblick über den wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstand zur Golfstromzirkulation. Forscherinnen und Forscher ordnen verwirrende und oft widersprüchliche Informationen ein, die in der Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. Die Broschüre bietet Orientierung über plausible Zukunftsszenarien und relevante Forschungsfragen.
Published: 2017

45. Zukunft der Golfstromzirkulation : Fakten und Hintergründe aus der Forschung = Future of the Gulf Stream circulation

Author: Beck, Marie-Luise, Konitzer, Sebastian, Weidinger, Elisabeth, Peinert, Rolf, Latif, Mojib, Mulitza, Stefan, Nürnberg, Dirk, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Rhein, Monika, Schulz, Michael, Stammer, Detlef, von Storch, Jin-Song, Visbeck, Martin, Beck, Marie-Luise, Konitzer, Sebastian, Weidinger, Elisabeth, Peinert, Rolf, Latif, Mojib, Mulitza, Stefan, Nürnberg, Dirk, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Rhein, Monika, Schulz, Michael, Stammer, Detlef, von Storch, Jin-Song, and Visbeck, Martin
Abstract: Diese Broschüre gibt einen verständlichen Überblick über den wissenschaftlichen Kenntnisstand zur Golfstromzirkulation. Forscherinnen und Forscher ordnen verwirrende und oft widersprüchliche Informationen ein, die in der Öffentlichkeit diskutiert werden. Die Broschüre bietet Orientierung über plausible Zukunftsszenarien und relevante Forschungsfragen.
Published: 2017

46. Wie bedroht sind die Ozeane?

Author: Wiegandt, Klaus, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Richardson, Katherine, Wiegandt, Klaus, Rahmstorf, Stefan, and Richardson, Katherine
Published: 2016

47. Change points of global temperature

Author: Cahill, Niamh, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Parnell, Andrew, Cahill, Niamh, Rahmstorf, Stefan, and Parnell, Andrew
Abstract: We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ~1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.
Published: 2015

48. Change points of global temperature

Author: Cahill, Niamh, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Parnell, Andrew, Cahill, Niamh, Rahmstorf, Stefan, and Parnell, Andrew
Abstract: We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ~1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.
Published: 2015

49. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

Author: Kemp, Andrew C., Horton, Benjamin P., Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Mann, Michael E., Vermeer, Martin, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kemp, Andrew C., Horton, Benjamin P., Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Mann, Michael E., Vermeer, Martin, and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Abstract: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108 (2011): 11017-11022, doi:10.1073/pnas.1015619108., We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 years based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. It then increased for 400 years at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/yr, representing the steepest, century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semi-empirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium., Research was supported by NSF grants (EAR-0951686) to BPH and JPD. ACK thanks a NOSAMS internship, UPenn paleontology stipend and grants from GSA and NAMS. North Carolina sea-level research was funded by NOAA (NA05NOS4781182), USGS (02ERAG0044) and NSF (EAR-0717364) grants to BPH with S. Culver and R. Corbett (East Carolina University). JPD (EAR-0309129) and MEM (ATM-0542356) acknowledge NSF support. MV acknowledges Academy of Finland Project 123113 and COST Action ES0701.
Published: 2011

50. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

Author: Kemp, Andrew C., Horton, Benjamin P., Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Mann, Michael E., Vermeer, Martin, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Kemp, Andrew C., Horton, Benjamin P., Donnelly, Jeffrey P., Mann, Michael E., Vermeer, Martin, and Rahmstorf, Stefan
Abstract: We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 years based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. It then increased for 400 years at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/yr, representing the steepest, century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semi-empirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.
Published: 2011

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