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Simulated current year annual real GDP growth forecasts for 2015-2021 are made using a chosen SARIMA model, with the Box-Jenkins methodology as a general modelling framework. The forecasts are compared to the actual outcomes and the Absolute Errors (AE) and the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) are calculated for each year. Then the MAE is calculated for two different evaluation periods. The first period is 2015-2019, and the second 2017-2021. The Mean Absolute Errors for these periods are then compared to the Mean Absolute Errors achieved in these two periods by 11 different Swedish institutions and companies that regularly publish current year annual real GDP growth forecasts. For the period 2015-2019 the 11 forecasters achieved a Mean Absolute Error span of 0.31-0.58 and the chosen SARIMA model achieved a MAE of 0.58. For the period 2017-2021 the 11 forecasters achieved a MAE span of 0.37-0.87, and the chosen SARIMA model achieved a MAE of 1.13. The results indicate that for years without economic instability, a SARIMA model can provide adequate forecasting results. But when a major shock to the economy like the pandemic occurs, to forecast with a SARIMA model might not be very useful.

The ocean is one of the significant sources of livelihood in the Philippines. The blue economy refers to ocean sustainability, from biodiversity to ecosystem health maintenance. With the motive to generate income, the blue economy coincides with the concept of good stewardship of ocean resources. The blue economy is said to have the potential to boost economic growth. The study aimed to examine the effect of the blue economy on Philippine economic growth through the use of the following variables: the Fisheries sector, Maritime Transportation sector, and Tourism sector. In addition, the researchers utilized a descriptive-quantitative approach to observe the annual time series data that covered the period from 2000-2021. Using GretL as the statistical tool, the relationship between the variables was measured and correlated through an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis. The researchers determined that only one of the three sectors positively affect Philippine economic growth. The fisheries (F) and maritime transportation (MT) have no positive effect on Philippine economic growth, regardless of the fisheries sector being statistically significant to the real GDP. Meanwhile, the tourism sector (T) has a significant and positive correlation with Philippine economic growth.

Simulated current year annual real GDP growth forecasts for 2015-2021 are made using a chosen SARIMA model, with the Box-Jenkins methodology as a general modelling framework. The forecasts are compared to the actual outcomes and the Absolute Errors (AE) and the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) are calculated for each year. Then the MAE is calculated for two different evaluation periods. The first period is 2015-2019, and the second 2017-2021. The Mean Absolute Errors for these periods are then compared to the Mean Absolute Errors achieved in these two periods by 11 different Swedish institutions and companies that regularly publish current year annual real GDP growth forecasts. For the period 2015-2019 the 11 forecasters achieved a Mean Absolute Error span of 0.31-0.58 and the chosen SARIMA model achieved a MAE of 0.58. For the period 2017-2021 the 11 forecasters achieved a MAE span of 0.37-0.87, and the chosen SARIMA model achieved a MAE of 1.13. The results indicate that for years without economic instability, a SARIMA model can provide adequate forecasting results. But when a major shock to the economy like the pandemic occurs, to forecast with a SARIMA model might not be very useful.

The ocean is one of the significant sources of livelihood in the Philippines. The blue economy refers to ocean sustainability, from biodiversity to ecosystem health maintenance. With the motive to generate income, the blue economy coincides with the concept of good stewardship of ocean resources. The blue economy is said to have the potential to boost economic growth. The study aimed to examine the effect of the blue economy on Philippine economic growth through the use of the following variables: the Fisheries sector, Maritime Transportation sector, and Tourism sector. In addition, the researchers utilized a descriptive-quantitative approach to observe the annual time series data that covered the period from 2000-2021. Using GretL as the statistical tool, the relationship between the variables was measured and correlated through an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis. The researchers determined that only one of the three sectors positively affect Philippine economic growth. The fisheries (F) and maritime transportation (MT) have no positive effect on Philippine economic growth, regardless of the fisheries sector being statistically significant to the real GDP. Meanwhile, the tourism sector (T) has a significant and positive correlation with Philippine economic growth.

Currently, Public Expenditure is an important fiscal policy instrument that allows to cover needs that limit development. Thus, this article aims to study how production increased as a result of changes in spending in Ecuador throughout 2017- 2021, with the help of SPSS software. In the same sense, a literary and descriptive research was conducted to obtain information to support the study, in addition to the application of a deductive methodology that allowed to collect statistical data and present data analysis. Likewise, it was found that real GDP and Fiscal Deficit are variables that are related to each other, and that the model proposed is effective, with the independent variables adjusting significantly to the dependent variable. Finally, the respective conclusions were presented, where changes in real GDP and Fiscal Deficit directly affect the budget allocated to strategic sectors of the country, thus allowing economic growth or, on the contrary, becoming a constraint for development., Actualmente, el Gasto Público se constituye como un importante instrumento de política fiscal que permite cubrir necesidades que limitan el desarrollo. Así, el presente articulo tiene la finalidad de estudiar como incrementó la producción a raíz de cambios en el gasto en Ecuador a lo largo de 2017- 2021, con la ayuda del software SPSS. En ese mismo sentido, se realizó una investigación literaria y descriptiva, para la obtención de información que sustentan el estudio, además de la aplicación de una metodología de tipo deductivo que permitió recopilar datos estadísticos y presentar análisis de datos. Así mismo, se conoció que el PIB real y Déficit Fiscal, son variables que se encuentran relacionadas entre sí, además que, el modelo planteado es eficaz, ajustándose significativamente las variables independientes a la dependiente. Para finalizar, se presentaron las respectivas conclusiones, donde los cambios del PIB real y Déficit Fiscal afectan de manera directa al presupuesto destinado a sectores estratégicos del país, permitiendo así el crecimiento económico o, por el contrario, convirtiéndose en un limitante para el desarrollo.

The purpose of the article is to study the shadow economy assessment methodology. This article presents a comprehensive study of the parameters of a shadow economy, considers its essence, and defines its terminology. This study outlines the historical approach to the development of the shadow economy, both in Russia and worldwide, and gives a brief analysis of the economy of the Republic of Sakha. The authors examined the specifics of the statistical methods applied in assessing various structural elements of a shadow economy and measured and assessed the shadow economy in this region. The research conducted enabled the authors to formulate the main measures required to reduce the shadow economy. The scientific novelty is justified by the research results, which included studying and summarizing a wide range of published and unpublished materials, the examination of the initial and transitional periods of the shadow economy development in Yakutia. The article reveals the main causes and conditions that lead to the formation of the shadow economy in various sectors of the Yakutia economy. The solutions and suggestions proposed in the article are aimed at reducing the shadow economy parameters. The scientific research results are of theoretical and applied importance for public administration and authorities to improve the effectiveness of the fight against the shadow economy manifestations.

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Earthquakes are often attributed to a myriad of human casualties, but its variation is quite remarkable across countries. This paper first presents a conceptual analysis to understand why earthquake casualties vary across countries. After that, using a rich panel dataset of countries observed over half a century, from 1950 to 2009, this paper provides empirical evidence that the middle-income countries are more susceptible to earthquake casualties because of its higher level of vulnerable buildings relative to the low- and high-income countries. This finding retains its robustness when I use different income-based criteria of country classification, control for earthquake probabilities, capture institutional effects, and devise alternative specifications. The results suggest that the governments can significantly reduce earthquake casualties by emphasising on the quality—rather than quantity—of built environment through enforcing quake-resistant regulations.

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the ECB's quantitative easing programme using an open-economy DSGE model estimated with Bayesian techniques. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Shock decompositions suggest a positive contribution of ECB QE to EA year-on-year output growth and inflation of up to 0.4 and 0.5 pp in the standard linearized version of the model. Allowing for an occasionally binding zero-bound constraint by using piecewise linear solution techniques raises the positive impact up to 1.0 and 0.7 pp, respectively.

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the ECB's quantitative easing programme using an open-economy DSGE model estimated with Bayesian techniques. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Shock decompositions suggest a positive contribution of ECB QE to EA year-on-year output growth and inflation of up to 0.4 and 0.5 pp in the standard linearized version of the model. Allowing for an occasionally binding zero-bound constraint by using piecewise linear solution techniques raises the positive impact up to 1.0 and 0.7 pp, respectively.

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the ECB's quantitative easing programme using an open-economy DSGE model estimated with Bayesian techniques. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Shock decompositions suggest a positive contribution of ECB QE to EA year-on-year output growth and inflation of up to 0.4 and 0.5 pp in the standard linearized version of the model. Allowing for an occasionally binding zero-bound constraint by using piecewise linear solution techniques raises the positive impact up to 1.0 and 0.7 pp, respectively.

У статті висвітлено теоретичні підходи до визначення показників зміни частки ВВП України у аналогічному світовому показнику. Розглянуто способи розрахунку показників ВВП. Проведено аналіз динаміки показників номінального ВВП, ВВП на душу населення, ВВП за паритетом купівельної спроможності, частки вітчизняного ВВП у світовому ВВП. За допомогою методу екстраполяції здійснено прогноз показнику відношення ВВП (номінального та за паритетом купівельної спроможності) України до світового рівня. Зроблено акцент на оцінці якісності економічного зростання України., The theoretical approaches to determination of indexes of change of Ukraine GDP share in an analogical world index are lighted. The methods of GDP indexes calculation are examined. The analysis of dynamics of indexes of nominal GDP, GDP per capita, purchasing-power parity GDP, part of domestic GDP in world GDP. The prognosis of index of GDP relation (nominal and purchasing-power parity) of Ukraine to the world level is done by means of extrapolation method. The estimation of quality of Ukraine economic increasing is accentuated., В статье освещены теоретические подходы к определению показателей изменения доли ВВП Украины в аналогичном мировом показателе. Рассмотрены способы расчета показателей ВВП. Проведен анализ динамики показателей номинального ВВП, ВВП на душу населения, ВВП по паритету покупательной способности, доли отечественного ВВП в мировом ВВП. С помощью метода экстраполяции осуществлен прогноз показателю отношения ВВП (номинального и по паритету покупательной способности) Украины до мирового уровня. Сделан акцент на оценке качественности экономического роста Украины.

This paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and tests for causality using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There is evidence of long-run relationships in the three models under consideration. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) finds no evidence to support the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Zambia in the long-run. The evidence from the long-run suggests an opposite of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), in that the results indicate a U-shaped curve relationship between income and carbon emission. The conclusion on causality based on the VECM is that there is evidence of neutrality hypothesis between either total electricity and income or between industrial electricity and income in the short-run Additionally, there is evidence of conservation hypothesis in the context of residential and agricultural electricity consumption.

This paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and tests for causality using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There is evidence of long-run relationships in the three models under consideration. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) finds no evidence to support the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Zambia in the long-run. The evidence from the long-run suggests an opposite of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), in that the results indicate a U-shaped curve relationship between income and carbon emission. The conclusion on causality based on the VECM is that there is evidence of neutrality hypothesis between either total electricity and income or between industrial electricity and income in the short-run Additionally, there is evidence of conservation hypothesis in the context of residential and agricultural electricity consumption.

There is a continued debate that external financial resources complement the limited domestic funds for growth, especially in developing countries, while others are of the view that external finances mostly impede economic growth and development. This article is an attempt to analyze the inflows of some external financial capital such as FDI, external debt, migrants’ remittances and ODA, along with world oil price on economic growth (captured by real GDP) in Nigeria. In order to capture both the short run and the long run effects of the variables on the economy, an econometric technique, Nerlove’s Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) was employed using yearly data from 1981 to 2012. Our results suggest that in both the short run and long run, FDI and world oil price will boost economic growth in Nigeria. Not too surprisingly, our findings equally suggest that the relationship between world oil price and economic growth may not be linear after all and we have evidence to show that this relationship is likely concave in nature. In the same vein, further findings show that migrant remittance is likely to have an adverse effect on the nation’s real GDP, while external debt and ODA do not make any significant contribution to the nation’s real GDP. We argue that for Nigeria to fully benefit from the flows of global finances, policy makers should on an ongoing basis weigh the costs and benefits associated with foreign capital inflows to the country. As is often the case, no country can compete favorably on the world market without prudent resource management and sound investment climate. Undoubtedly, with effective and efficient utilization of external financial resources, sound monetary and fiscal policies, institutional reforms in all sectors of the economy, Nigeria can witness not only accelerated but also more inclusive growth in the present era of financial globalization. © 2015, World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society. All rights reserved.

There is a continued debate that external financial resources complement the limited domestic funds for growth, especially in developing countries, while others are of the view that external finances mostly impede economic growth and development. This article is an attempt to analyze the inflows of some external financial capital such as FDI, external debt, migrants’ remittances and ODA, along with world oil price on economic growth (captured by real GDP) in Nigeria. In order to capture both the short run and the long run effects of the variables on the economy, an econometric technique, Nerlove’s Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) was employed using yearly data from 1981 to 2012. Our results suggest that in both the short run and long run, FDI and world oil price will boost economic growth in Nigeria. Not too surprisingly, our findings equally suggest that the relationship between world oil price and economic growth may not be linear after all and we have evidence to show that this relationship is likely concave in nature. In the same vein, further findings show that migrant remittance is likely to have an adverse effect on the nation’s real GDP, while external debt and ODA do not make any significant contribution to the nation’s real GDP. We argue that for Nigeria to fully benefit from the flows of global finances, policy makers should on an ongoing basis weigh the costs and benefits associated with foreign capital inflows to the country. As is often the case, no country can compete favorably on the world market without prudent resource management and sound investment climate. Undoubtedly, with effective and efficient utilization of external financial resources, sound monetary and fiscal policies, institutional reforms in all sectors of the economy, Nigeria can witness not only accelerated but also more inclusive growth in the present era of financial globalization. © 2015, World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society. All rights reserved.

In this paper, we focus on the different methods which have been proposed in the literature to date for dealing with mixed-frequency and ragged-edge datasets: bridge equations, mixed-data sampling (MIDAS), and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) models. We discuss their performances for nowcasting the quarterly growth rate of the Euro area GDP and its components, using a very large set of monthly indicators. We investigate the behaviors of single indicator models, forecast combinations and factor models, in a pseudo real-time framework. MIDAS with an AR component performs quite well, and outperforms MF-VAR at most horizons. Bridge equations perform well overall. Forecast pooling is superior to most of the single indicator models overall. Pooling information using factor models gives even better results. The best results are obtained for the components for which more economically related monthly indicators are available. Nowcasts of GDP components can then be combined to obtain nowcasts for the total GDP growth.

In this paper, we focus on the different methods which have been proposed in the literature to date for dealing with mixed-frequency and ragged-edge datasets: bridge equations, mixed-data sampling (MIDAS), and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) models. We discuss their performances for nowcasting the quarterly growth rate of the Euro area GDP and its components, using a very large set of monthly indicators. We investigate the behaviors of single indicator models, forecast combinations and factor models, in a pseudo real-time framework. MIDAS with an AR component performs quite well, and outperforms MF-VAR at most horizons. Bridge equations perform well overall. Forecast pooling is superior to most of the single indicator models overall. Pooling information using factor models gives even better results. The best results are obtained for the components for which more economically related monthly indicators are available. Nowcasts of GDP components can then be combined to obtain nowcasts for the total GDP growth.

In this paper, we focus on the different methods which have been proposed in the literature to date for dealing with mixed-frequency and ragged-edge datasets: bridge equations, mixed-data sampling (MIDAS), and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) models. We discuss their performances for nowcasting the quarterly growth rate of the Euro area GDP and its components, using a very large set of monthly indicators. We investigate the behaviors of single indicator models, forecast combinations and factor models, in a pseudo real-time framework. MIDAS with an AR component performs quite well, and outperforms MF-VAR at most horizons. Bridge equations perform well overall. Forecast pooling is superior to most of the single indicator models overall. Pooling information using factor models gives even better results. The best results are obtained for the components for which more economically related monthly indicators are available. Nowcasts of GDP components can then be combined to obtain nowcasts for the total GDP growth.

In this paper, we focus on the different methods which have been proposed in the literature to date for dealing with mixed-frequency and ragged-edge datasets: bridge equations, mixed-data sampling (MIDAS), and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) models. We discuss their performances for nowcasting the quarterly growth rate of the Euro area GDP and its components, using a very large set of monthly indicators. We investigate the behaviors of single indicator models, forecast combinations and factor models, in a pseudo real-time framework. MIDAS with an AR component performs quite well, and outperforms MF-VAR at most horizons. Bridge equations perform well overall. Forecast pooling is superior to most of the single indicator models overall. Pooling information using factor models gives even better results. The best results are obtained for the components for which more economically related monthly indicators are available. Nowcasts of GDP components can then be combined to obtain nowcasts for the total GDP growth.

This article examines the dynamic relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and industrial output and GDP growth in OECD countries using data over the period of 1980–2011. The panel cointegration technique allowing structural breaks is used for empirical investigation. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among non-renewable and renewable energy sources, industrial output and economic growth. The panel causality analyses show bidirectional causality between industrial output and both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in the short and long run. However, there is evidence of bidirectional short-run relationship between GDP growth and non-renewable energy consumption while unidirectional causality between GDP growth and renewable energy consumption. These results indicate that OECD economies still remain energy-dependent for their industrial output as well as overall economic growth. However, expansion of renewable energy sources is a viable solution for addressing energy security and climate change issues, and gradually substituting renewable to non-renewable energy sources could enhance a sustainable energy economy.

Keeping in view the objective that is to observe the usefulness of fiscal policy on real GDP of Pakistan, the study collects time series data from 1976 to 2012 through reliable sources of statistical bureaus of Pakistan. Using Johansen Cointegration test, the long run results demonstrate investment and government expenditure as raising factor for real GDP of Pakistan while GDP Deflator and government revenue as de-motivating factor for real GDP of Pakistan in the long run.

Keeping in view the objective that is to observe the usefulness of fiscal policy on real GDP of Pakistan, the study collects time series data from 1976 to 2012 through reliable sources of statistical bureaus of Pakistan. Using Johansen Cointegration test, the long run results demonstrate investment and government expenditure as raising factor for real GDP of Pakistan while GDP Deflator and government revenue as de-motivating factor for real GDP of Pakistan in the long run.

Keeping in view the objective that is to observe the usefulness of fiscal policy on real GDP of Pakistan, the study collects time series data from 1976 to 2012 through reliable sources of statistical bureaus of Pakistan. Using Johansen Cointegration test, the long run results demonstrate investment and government expenditure as raising factor for real GDP of Pakistan while GDP Deflator and government revenue as de-motivating factor for real GDP of Pakistan in the long run.

This empirical study examines the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth for a panel of nine Caribbean countries over the period 1995–2007. Pedroni (1999, 2004) panel cointegration tests reveal a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP per capita, the real effective exchange rate and international tourist arrivals per capita. The panel error correction model reveals bidirectional causality between tourism and economic growth in both the short run and the long run.

The goal of this paper is to examine the responsiveness of the UK housing market to real and nominal shocks. To achieve this goal, we use a structural VAR model based on quarterly data for the period 1957:1¡V2009:4. We find that, in response to an interest rate shock, aggregate and modern house prices fall sharply over the first 4 years and do not recover to their pre-shock level. In response to a real GDP shock, both house prices react in a positive inverted U-shaped manner. Finally, we find that an inflation shock has a U-shaped negative impact on aggregate and modern house prices in the UK.

The aim of the implementation of this research was to know whether the national income, the interest rate of the fixed deposit, and the interest rate of credit had the influence that was significant or not towards consumption in Indonesia, and whether being gotten by long-term and short relations towards consumption. The methodology that was utilised in this research was the Error Correction Model method (ECM) that from the OLS method, with before carried out steps as follows, that is the test, the integration test and the test of the co-integration approach of the unit root. And the data that was used in this research was the secondary data in a kwartalan manner in the period 1994:1 up to 2005:4. Was based on results of the research that was carried out, then could be concluded that results of the test of the unit root, showed all variable was not yet stationary and just was stationary in the level test of the integration. While results of the co-integration test showed the stationary consumption model so as to be able to be carried out by the test of ECM. And the results of the Error Correction Model test (ECM) showed that in the long term the national income variable had the influence that was significant towards consumption. The interest rate of the Fixed Deposit in the long term and short-term did not have the influence on consumption. The interest rate of Credit in the long term and short-term also did not have the influence that was significant towards consumption.

The aim of the implementation of this research was to know whether the national income, the interest rate of the fixed deposit, and the interest rate of credit had the influence that was significant or not towards consumption in Indonesia, and whether being gotten by long-term and short relations towards consumption. The methodology that was utilised in this research was the Error Correction Model method (ECM) that from the OLS method, with before carried out steps as follows, that is the test, the integration test and the test of the co-integration approach of the unit root. And the data that was used in this research was the secondary data in a kwartalan manner in the period 1994:1 up to 2005:4. Was based on results of the research that was carried out, then could be concluded that results of the test of the unit root, showed all variable was not yet stationary and just was stationary in the level test of the integration. While results of the co-integration test showed the stationary consumption model so as to be able to be carried out by the test of ECM. And the results of the Error Correction Model test (ECM) showed that in the long term the national income variable had the influence that was significant towards consumption. The interest rate of the Fixed Deposit in the long term and short-term did not have the influence on consumption. The interest rate of Credit in the long term and short-term also did not have the influence that was significant towards consumption.

In this paper, we analyse the conditional variance of the Australian real gross domestic product (GDP) and the expenditure components by a variety of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. First, we test the plausibility of the constant-correlation assumption by employing Tse¡¯s (2000) Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test and the Bera and Kim¡¯s (2002) Information Matrix (IM) test. Our results indicate that the correlations among the shocks to real GDP and its various expenditure components are invariant over time. In addition, these shocks are not highly correlated with one another. Second, we examine if volatility asymmetry exists in the Australian business cycle by proposing four bivariate asymmetric GARCH specifications. Except for the case of gross fixed capital formation, the evidence of asymmetric conditional volatility in the growth rates of the Australian real GDP and the other components is weak. Despite the weak evidence of asymmetric volatility, higher volatility is generally associated with the contractionary phase of the Australian business cycle. This finding has important implications for macroeconomic policy and forecasting for business cycle.

In this paper, we analyse the conditional variance of the Australian real gross domestic product (GDP) and the expenditure components by a variety of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. First, we test the plausibility of the constant-correlation assumption by employing Tse¡¯s (2000) Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test and the Bera and Kim¡¯s (2002) Information Matrix (IM) test. Our results indicate that the correlations among the shocks to real GDP and its various expenditure components are invariant over time. In addition, these shocks are not highly correlated with one another. Second, we examine if volatility asymmetry exists in the Australian business cycle by proposing four bivariate asymmetric GARCH specifications. Except for the case of gross fixed capital formation, the evidence of asymmetric conditional volatility in the growth rates of the Australian real GDP and the other components is weak. Despite the weak evidence of asymmetric volatility, higher volatility is generally associated with the contractionary phase of the Australian business cycle. This finding has important implications for macroeconomic policy and forecasting for business cycle.

Schumpeters gedachte over meervoudige economische golfbewegingen is verder onderzocht. Het bestaan van meervoudige cycli in economische variabelen is aangetoond. In kerninnovaties zijn vijf verschillende cycli aangetroffen. Verder zijn meervoudige cycli structuren gevonden in diverse macro-economische variabelen voor Groot-Brittanië, de Verenigde Staten en Nederland. Opmerkelijk is dat de lengten in jaren van de individuele cycli de Fibonacci reeks benaderen. Deze relatie is niet eerder aangetoond in de economie. De reeks keert regelmatig terug op tal van wetenschapsterreinen zoals de biologie, natuurkunde en astronomie. Deze is eveneens waar te nemen in de kunst, muziek en architectuur. Het bestaan van dit verband geeft een andere kijk op macro-economische relaties en op economische groei. De meervoudige cyclus benadering is eveneens toegepast op de Nederlandse economie. Op basis van een 5 en 11 jarige cyclus in het Nederlandse Bruto Binnenlands Product (BBP) is een lange termijn voorspel model ontwikkeld. Tegelijk is een nieuwe real time indicator, ook wel” nowcast indicator”geheten, va, Schumpeter’s line of thought of multiple economic cycles is further investigated. The existence of multiple cycles in economic variables is demonstrated. In basic innovations five different cycles are found. Multiple cycle structures are shown in various macro-economic variables from the United Kingdom, the United States of America and the Netherlands. It is remarkable that the lengths in years of the individual cycles are similar to the Fibonnaci sequence. This relationship has never been found before in the economy. This sequence is well known in the scientific fields of biology, physics and astronomy. It can also be observed in art, music and architecture. The existence of this relationship gives a new perspective on macro- economic relationships and economic growth. The multiple cycle approach is also applied to the Dutch economy. On the basis of a 5 and 11 year cycle present in the Dutch Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a long term forecast model is developed. At the same time a new real time indicator, also known as “nowcast indicator”, of Dutch GDP is developed. This indicator serves as a thermometer of the Dutch economy and is called the “Econometric Institute Current Indicator of the Economy” (EICIE). In contract to most other forecast models, which are much larger, this forecast model is based upon a single equation. The model is based on a single explanatory real variable, namely staffing data from Randstad Staffing Services.

This thesis investigates the US business cycle from the (old) Keynesian perspective. It is in line with the [86]Keynes (1936) in following aspects. (1) The analyses are focused on the cyclical fluctuations. The underlying assumption behind this practice is that economic fluctuations are mainly ascribed to cyclical components. (2) Business cycles are only analysed using demand-side factors. This practice corresponds to the Keynes’ proposition that demand generates supply. (3) The main mechanism of business cycles is based on the [86]Keynes’(1936) intuition that investment is driven by businessmen’s expectations and the major source of the expectations is current consumption. Three chapters are connected to each other. In chapter 3, I detrend the US real GDP to obtain a reasonable business cycle. In this course, I detect three break points in the trend. In chapter 4, I investigate the main driver of business cycles using the data which is detrended using the break points detected in chapter 3. In chapter 5, I apply the mechanism that is studied in chapter 4 to forecasting. In chapter 2, I review the literature of modern business cycle models, that is, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) from an empirical perspective which is corresponding to the Old Keynesian idea. I discuss the limitation of DSGE models for the two empirical facts, consumption-investment comovement and flat Phillips curve. In chapter 3, I decompose the US real GDP using a deterministic (log) linear trend with three breaks. The practice is chosen as it yields a cycle that is important in magnitude, which corresponds to the Keynesian perspective in that economic fluctuations are mainly ascribed to a cyclical component. The measured business cycle displays a boom-bust pattern with sporadic downward pluckings. The estimated boom-bust cycle is far from a stationary process in that it is long-lasting, large in size and displays sharp reversions to the trend. To support the estimated result