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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Understanding predictors of changes in employment status among people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can assist health care providers to develop appropriate work retention/rehabilitation programs. We aimed to model longitudinal transitions of employment status in MS and estimate the probabilities of retaining employment status or losing or gaining employment over time in individuals with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD). METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised adults (aged 18-59 years) diagnosed with FCD (n = 237) who were followed for more than 11 years. At each review, participants were assigned to one of three states: unemployed, part-time, or full-time employed. A Markov multistate model was used to examine the rate of state-to-state transitions. RESULTS: At the time of FCD, participants with full-time employment had an 89% chance of being in the same state over a 1-year period, but this decreased to 42% over the 10-year follow-up period. For unemployed participants, there was a 92% likelihood of remaining unemployed after 1 year, but this probability decreased to 53% over 10 years. Females, those who progressed to clinically definite MS, those with a higher relapse count, and those with a greater level of disability were at increased risk of transitioning to a deteriorated employment state. In addition, those who experienced clinically significant fatigue over the follow-up period were less likely to gain employment after being unemployed. CONCLUSIONS: In our FCD cohort, we found a considerable rate of employment transition during the early years post-diagnosis. Over more than a decade of follow-up post-FCD, we found that females and individuals with a greater disability and a higher relapse count are at higher risk of losing employment.

Consensus statements can be very influential in medicine and public health. Some of these statements use systematic evidence synthesis but others fail on this front. Many consensus statements use panels of experts to deduce perceived consensus through Delphi processes. We argue that stacking of panel members toward one particular position or narrative is a major threat, especially in absence of systematic evidence review. Stacking may involve financial conflicts of interest, but nonfinancial conflicts of strong advocacy can also cause major bias. Given their emerging importance, we describe here how such consensus statements may be misleading, by analyzing in depth a recent high-impact Delphi consensus statement on COVID-19 recommendations as a case example. We demonstrate that many of the selected panel members and at least 35% of the core panel members had advocated toward COVID-19 elimination (Zero-COVID) during the pandemic and were leading members of aggressive advocacy groups. These advocacy conflicts were not declared in the Delphi consensus publication, with rare exceptions. Therefore, we propose that consensus statements should always require rigorous evidence synthesis and maximal transparency on potential biases toward advocacy or lobbyist groups to be valid. While advocacy can have many important functions, its biased impact on consensus panels should be carefully avoided.

Prediction markets are a successful information aggregation structure, however the exact mechanism by which private information is incorporated into the price remains poorly understood. We introduce a novel method based on the “Kyle model” to identify traders who contribute valuable information to the market price. Applied to a large field prediction market dataset, we identify traders whose trades have positive informational price impact. In contrast to others, these traders realize profit (on average) in excess of a theoretical expected informed lower bound. Results are replicated on other field prediction market datasets, providing strong evidence in favor of the Kyle model.

BACKGROUND: The beneficial off-target effects of Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination potentially include protection against allergy. OBJECTIVE: In the MIS BAIR trial, we aimed to determine whether neonatal BCG vaccination reduces atopic sensitisation and clinical food allergy in infants. METHODS: In this randomised controlled trial, 1272 neonates were allocated to BCG-Denmark vaccine (0.05 mL intradermal dose) or no BCG at birth. Randomisation was stratified by recruitment site, mode of delivery and plurality of birth. The primary outcome was the incidence of atopic sensitisation determined by skin prick test at 1 year of age. Food allergy was determined by 3-monthly online questionnaires and oral food challenges. Data were analysed by intention-to-treat using binary regression. CLINICALTRIALS: gov (NCT01906853). RESULTS: Atopic sensitisation during the first year of life was 22.9% among infants in the BCG group and 18.9% in the control group (adjusted risk difference (aRD) 3.8% (95% CI -1.5 to 9.1) after multiple imputation). Clinical food allergy was similar between infants in the BCG and control groups (9.8% vs. 9.6%; aRD 0.2, 95% CI -3.4 to 3.8). An interaction was observed between the primary outcome and maternal history of BCG vaccination. No interaction was observed for the additional prespecified potential effect modifiers tested (sex, delivery mode, family history of any allergy, season of birth, hepatitis B vaccination at randomisation, BCG scar and age at BCG administration). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Neonatal BCG-Denmark vaccination does not protect against atopic sensitisation or clinical food allergy in the first year of life.

Vitamin D deficiency is a risk factor for developing multiple sclerosis. The PrevANZ trial was conducted to determine if vitamin D3 supplementation can prevent recurrent disease activity in people with a first demyelinating event. As a sub-study of this trial, we investigated the effect of supplementation on peripheral immune cell gene expression. Participants were randomized to 1000, 5000 or 10,000 international units daily of vitamin D3 or placebo. Peripheral blood was collected at baseline and 12 weeks and sent for ribonucleic acid sequencing. Datasets from 55 participants were included. Gene expression was modulated by high dose supplementation. Antigen presentation and viral response pathways were upregulated. Oxidative phosphorylation and immune signaling pathways, including tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-17 signaling, were downregulated. Overall, vitamin D3 supplementation for 12 weeks modulated the peripheral immune cell transcriptome with induction of anti-inflammatory gene expression profiles. Our results support a dose-dependent effect of vitamin D3 supplementation on immune gene expression.

Male sex, early life chemical exposure and the brain aromatase enzyme have been implicated in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). In the Barwon Infant Study birth cohort (n = 1074), higher prenatal maternal bisphenol A (BPA) levels are associated with higher ASD symptoms at age 2 and diagnosis at age 9 only in males with low aromatase genetic pathway activity scores. Higher prenatal BPA levels are predictive of higher cord blood methylation across the CYP19A1 brain promoter I.f region (P = 0.009) and aromatase gene methylation mediates (P = 0.01) the link between higher prenatal BPA and brain-derived neurotrophic factor methylation, with independent cohort replication. BPA suppressed aromatase expression in vitro and in vivo. Male mice exposed to mid-gestation BPA or with aromatase knockout have ASD-like behaviors with structural and functional brain changes. 10-hydroxy-2-decenoic acid (10HDA), an estrogenic fatty acid alleviated these features and reversed detrimental neurodevelopmental gene expression. Here we demonstrate that prenatal BPA exposure is associated with impaired brain aromatase function and ASD-related behaviors and brain abnormalities in males that may be reversible through postnatal 10HDA intervention.

BACKGROUND: Maternal dietary choline has a central role in foetal brain development and may be associated with later cognitive function. However, many countries are reporting lower than recommended intake of choline during pregnancy. METHODS: Dietary choline was estimated using food frequency questionnaires in pregnant women participating in population-derived birth cohort, the Barwon Infant Study (BIS). Dietary choline is reported as the sum of all choline-containing moieties. Serum total choline-containing compounds (choline-c), phosphatidylcholine and sphingomyelin were measured using nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics in the third trimester. The main form of analysis was multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: The mean daily dietary choline during pregnancy was 372 (standard deviation (SD) 104) mg/day. A total of 236 women (23%) had adequate choline intake (440 mg/day) based on the Australian and New Zealand guidelines, and 27 women (2.6%) took supplemental choline ([Formula: see text] 50 mg/dose) daily during pregnancy. The mean serum choline-c in pregnant women was 3.27 (SD 0.44) mmol/l. Ingested choline and serum choline-c were not correlated (R2) = - 0.005, p = 0.880. Maternal age, maternal weight gain in pregnancy, and a pregnancy with more than one infant were associated with higher serum choline-c, whereas gestational diabetes and environmental tobacco smoke during preconception and pregnancy were associated with lower serum choline-c. Nutrients or dietary patterns were not associated with variation in serum choline-c. CONCLUSION: In this cohort, approximately one-quarter of women met daily choline recommendations during pregnancy. Future studies are needed to understand the potential impact of low dietary choline intake during pregnancy on infant cognition and metabolic intermediaries.

BACKGROUND: There are currently no specific biomarkers for multiple sclerosis (MS). Identifying robust biomarkers for MS is crucial to improve disease diagnosis and management. METHODS: This study first used six Mendelian randomisation methods to assess causal relationship of 174 metabolites with MS, incorporating data from European-ancestry metabolomics (n=8569-86 507) and MS (n=14 802 MS cases, 26 703 controls) genomewide association studies. Genetic scores for identified causal metabolite(s) were then computed to predict MS disability progression in an independent longitudinal cohort (AusLong study) of 203 MS cases with up to 15-year follow-up. RESULTS: We found a novel genetic causal effect of serine on MS onset (OR=1.67, 95% CI 1.51 to 1.84, p=1.73×10-20), such that individuals whose serine level is 1 SD above the population mean will have 1.67 times the risk of developing MS. This is robust across all sensitivity methods (OR ranges from 1.49 to 1.67). In an independent longitudinal MS cohort, we then constructed time-dynamic and time-fixed genetic scores based on serine genetic instrument single-nucleotide polymorphisms, where higher scores for raised serum serine level were associated with increased risk of disability worsening, especially in the time-dynamic model (RR=1.25, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.42, p=7.52×10-4). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support investigating serine as an important candidate biomarker for MS onset and disability progression.

INTRODUCTION: The association between air pollution and poor respiratory health outcomes is well established, however less is known about the biological mechanisms, especially in early life. Children are particularly at risk from air pollution, especially during the prenatal period as their organs and systems are still undergoing crucial development. Therefore, our study aims to investigate if maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy is associated with oxidative stress (OS) and inflammation in pregnancy or infant lung function at 4 weeks of age, and the extent to which the association is modified by an infant's genetic risk of OS. METHODS: The Barwon Infant Study (BIS) is a longitudinal study of Australian children from the region of Geelong, Victoria. A total of 314 infants had available lung function and maternal OS markers. Exposure to annual air pollutants (NO 2 and PM 2.5 ) were estimated using validated, satellite-based, land-use regression models. Infant lung function was measured by multiple-breath washout, and the ratio of peak tidal expiratory flow over expiratory time was calculated at 4 weeks of age. An inflammation biomarker, glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), was measured in maternal (36 weeks) and cord blood, and oxidative stress (OS) biomarkers, 8-hydroxyguanine (8-OHGua) and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) were measured in maternal urine at 28 weeks. A genetic pathway score for OS (gPFS ox ) was calculated for each infant participant in the BIS cohort, and high risk defined as score >8. Linear regression was used to explore the association of maternal air pollution exposure with infant lung function, and potential modification by OS genotype was tested through use of interaction terms and other methods. RESULTS: There was no evidence of a relationship between maternal exposure to air pollution and infant lung function in the whole population. We did not find an association between air pollution and GlycA or OS during pregnancy. We found e

Background: Oral immunotherapy is effective at inducing desensitisation to allergens and induces sustained unresponsiveness (ie, clinical remission) in a subset of patients, but causes frequent reactions. We aimed to investigate whether addition of a probiotic adjuvant improved the efficacy or safety of peanut oral immunotherapy. Method(s): PPOIT-003, a multicentre, randomised, phase 2b trial, was conducted in three tertiary hospitals in Australia (Adelaide [SA], Melbourne [VIC], and Perth [WA]) in children aged 1-10 years, weighing more than 7 kg, with peanut allergy confirmed by a double-blind placebo-controlled food challenge (cumulative 4950 mg dose of peanut protein) and positive peanut skin prick test (>=3 mm) or peanut-specific IgE (>=0.35 kU/L). Children were randomly assigned (2:2:1) to receive probiotic and peanut oral immunotherapy (PPOIT), placebo probiotic and peanut oral immunotherapy (OIT), or placebo probiotic and placebo OIT (placebo) for 18 months, and were followed up until 12 months after completion of treatment. Oral immunotherapy consisted of increasing doses of peanut protein (commercially available food-grade 12% defatted peanut flour [50% peanut protein]) until a 2000 mg daily maintenance dose was reached. The probiotic adjuvant was a daily dose of 2 x 1010 colony-forming units of the probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus ATCC 53103. Placebo immunotherapy comprised maltodextrin, brown food colouring, and peanut essence, and placebo probiotic was maltodextrin. Dual primary outcomes were 8-week sustained unresponsiveness, defined as no reaction to a cumulative dose of 4950 mg peanut protein at treatment completion and 8 weeks after treatment completion, in the PPOIT versus placebo groups and the PPOIT versus OIT groups, analysed by intention to treat. Safety endpoints were adverse events during the treatment phase, and peanut ingestion and reactions in the 12-month post-treatment period. This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Cli

The developing brain is highly sensitive to environmental disturbances, and adverse exposures can act through oxidative stress. Given that oxidative stress susceptibility is determined partly by genetics, multiple studies have employed genetic scores to explore the role of oxidative stress in human disease. However, traditional approaches to genetic score construction face a range of challenges, including a lack of interpretability, bias towards the disease outcome, and often overfitting to the study they were derived on. Here, we develop an alternative strategy by first generating a genetic pathway function score for oxidative stress (gPFSox) based on the transcriptional activity levels of the oxidative stress response pathway in brain and other tissue types. Then, in the Barwon Infant Study (BIS), a population-based birth cohort (n = 1074), we show that a high gPFSox, indicating reduced ability to counter oxidative stress, is linked to higher autism spectrum disorder risk and higher parent-reported autistic traits at age 4 years, with AOR values (per 2 additional pro-oxidant alleles) of 2.10 (95% CI (1.12, 4.11); p = 0.024) and 1.42 (95% CI (1.02, 2.01); p = 0.041), respectively. Past work in BIS has reported higher prenatal phthalate exposure at 36 weeks of gestation associated with offspring autism spectrum disorder. In this study, we examine combined effects and show a consistent pattern of increased neurodevelopmental problems for individuals with both a high gPFSox and high prenatal phthalate exposure across a range of outcomes, including high gPFSox and high DEHP levels against autism spectrum disorder (attributable proportion due to interaction 0.89; 95% CI (0.62, 1.16); p < 0.0001). The results highlight the utility of this novel functional genetic score and add to the growing evidence implicating gestational phthalate exposure in adverse neurodevelopment.

BACKGROUND: Prenatal exposure to phthalates has been associated with adverse health and neurodevelopmental outcomes. DNA methylation (DNAm) alterations may be a mechanism underlying these effects, but prior investigations of prenatal exposure to phthalates and neonatal DNAm profiles are limited to placental tissue and umbilical cord blood. OBJECTIVE: Conduct an epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of the associations between prenatal exposure to phthalates and DNAm in two accessible infant tissues, venous buffy coat blood and buccal epithelial cells (BECs). METHODS: Participants included 152 maternal-infant pairs from the Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition (APrON) study. Maternal second trimester urine samples were analyzed for nine phthalate metabolites. Blood (n = 74) or BECs (n = 78) were collected from 3-month-old infants and profiled for DNAm using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 (450K) BeadChip. Robust linear regressions were used to investigate the associations between high (HMWPs) and low molecular weight phthalates (LMWPs) and change in methylation levels at variable Cytosine-phosphate-Guanine (CpG) sites in infant tissues, as well as the sensitivity of associations to potential confounders. RESULTS: One candidate CpG in gene RNF39 reported by a previous study examining prenatal exposure to phthalates and cord blood DNAm was replicated. The EWAS identified 12 high-confidence CpGs in blood and another 12 in BECs associated with HMWPs and/or LMWPs. Prenatal exposure to bisphenol A (BPA) associated with two of the CpGs associated with HMWPs in BECs. DISCUSSION: Prenatal exposure to phthalates was associated with DNAm variation at CpGs annotated to genes associated with endocrine hormone activity (i.e., SLCO4A1, TPO), immune pathways and DNA damage (i.e., RASGEF1B, KAZN, HLA-A, MYO18A, DIP2C, C1or109), and neurodevelopment (i.e., AMPH, NOTCH3, DNAJC5). Future studies that characterize the stability of these associations in larger samples, multiple coh

BACKGROUND: The risk of adult onset cardiovascular and metabolic (cardiometabolic) disease accrues from early life. Infection is ubiquitous in infancy and induces inflammation, a key cardiometabolic risk factor, but the relationship between infection, inflammation, and metabolic profiles in early childhood remains unexplored. We investigated relationships between infection and plasma metabolomic and lipidomic profiles at age 6 and 12 months, and mediation of these associations by inflammation. METHODS: Matched infection, metabolomics, and lipidomics data were generated from 555 infants in a pre-birth longitudinal cohort. Infection data from birth to 12 months were parent-reported (total infections at age 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months), inflammation markers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hsCRP]; glycoprotein acetyls [GlycA]) were quantified at 12 months. Metabolic profiles were 12-month plasma nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (228 metabolites) and liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry lipidomics (776 lipids). Associations were evaluated with multivariable linear regression models. In secondary analyses, corresponding inflammation and metabolic data from birth (serum) and 6-month (plasma) time points were used. RESULTS: At 12 months, more frequent infant infections were associated with adverse metabolomic (elevated inflammation markers, triglycerides and phenylalanine, and lower high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1) and lipidomic profiles (elevated phosphatidylethanolamines and lower trihexosylceramides, dehydrocholesteryl esters, and plasmalogens). Similar, more marked, profiles were observed with higher GlycA, but not hsCRP. GlycA mediated a substantial proportion of the relationship between infection and metabolome/lipidome, with hsCRP generally mediating a lower proportion. Analogous relationships were observed between infection and 6-month inflammation, HDL cholesterol, and apolipoprotein A1. CONCLUSIONS: Infants with a gre

BACKGROUND: There is mounting evidence that in utero and early life exposures may predispose an individual to metabolic disorders in later life; and dysregulation of lipid metabolism is critical in such outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge about lipid metabolism and factors causing lipid dysregulation in early life that could result in adverse health outcomes in later life. We studied the effect of antenatal factors such as gestational age, birth weight, and mode of birth on lipid metabolism at birth; changes in the circulating lipidome in the first 4 years of life and the effect of breastfeeding in the first year of life. From this study, we aim to generate a framework for deeper understanding into factors effecting lipid metabolism in early life, to provide early interventions for those at risk of developing metabolic disorders including cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: We performed comprehensive lipid profiling of 1074 mother-child dyads in the Barwon Infant Study (BIS), a population-based pre-birth cohort and measured 776 distinct lipid features across 39 lipid classes using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). We measured lipids in 1032 maternal serum samples at 28 weeks' gestation, 893 cord serum samples at birth, 793, 735, and 511 plasma samples at 6, 12 months, and 4 years, respectively. Cord serum was enriched with long chain poly-unsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFAs), and corresponding cholesteryl esters relative to the maternal serum. We performed regression analyses to investigate the associations of cord serum lipid species with antenatal factors: gestational age, birth weight, mode of birth and duration of labour. RESULTS: The lipidome differed between mother and newborn and changed markedly with increasing child's age. Alkenylphosphatidylethanolamine species containing LC-PUFAs increased with child's age, whereas the corresponding lysophospholipids and triglycerides decreased. Majority of the cord

BACKGROUND: Measurement of cashew-specific IgE (sIgE) is often used to confirm sensitization but does not reliably diagnose clinical allergy. Ana o 3 is the dominant cashew allergen detected in 75-100% of patients with cashew allergy but not currently used in clinical practice. OBJECTIVES: To determine if component-resolved diagnostics using specific IgE to the 2 S albumin from cashew, Ana o 3, improves the accuracy of diagnosing cashew allergy, thereby circumventing the need for an oral food challenge (OFC) in some patients. METHODS: A population-based sample of 5276 children was recruited at age 1 year and followed up at age 6 years. Children with positive cashew skin prick test at age 6 underwent an OFC to clarify allergy status. Forty-seven children (mean age 5.02 ± 0.2) (33 cashew-allergic and 14 cashew-tolerant) had cashew sIgE and Ana o 3 sIgE quantified by ImmunoCAP System FEIA. RESULTS: A cutoff of >0.32 kUA/L for Ana o 3 sIgE provided 95% specificity and 90% sensitivity and correctly identified 90% of clinical cashew allergy. At the same specificity, the sensitivity for cashew sIgE (>8.5 kUA/L) was only 26%. Sequential measurement of cashew sIgE followed by Ana o 3 sIgE diagnosed 90% of children with cashew allergy without the need for an OFC. CONCLUSION: Ana o 3 sIgE testing provides higher diagnostic accuracy than cashew sIgE. Sequential measurement of cashew sIgE followed by Ana o 3 removed the need for a food challenge from 66% down to 12.8% (5-fold) of children compared with cashew sIgE testing alone.

BACKGROUND: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine could play a role in counteracting the rising prevalence of atopic diseases, through its beneficial off-target effects. We aimed to determine whether neonatal BCG vaccination reduces the incidence of eczema in infants. METHODS: Randomized controlled trial with 1272 infants allocated to receive BCG-Denmark or no BCG at birth. The primary outcome was the 12-month incidence of eczema based on 3-monthly questionnaires. Eczema was also assessed at a 12-month clinic visit. ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01906853. RESULTS: The 12-month eczema incidence was 32.2% in the BCG group compared with 36.6% in the control group (adjusted risk difference (aRD) -4.3%, 95% CI -9.9% to 1.3%, multiple imputation model). In addition, comparing infants in the BCG group with the control group, 15.7% vs. 19.2% had eczema lesions at the 12-month visit (aRD -3.5%, 95% CI -8.0% to 1.0%); 35.7% vs. 39.0% reported using topical steroids (aRD -3.3, 95% CI -9.2 to 2.7); and 7.3% vs. 10.2% had severe eczema scores (aRD -3.0%, 95% CI -8.8% to 2.7%). In 344 high-risk infants (two atopic parents), the 12-month eczema incidence was 35.3% in the BCG group compared with 46.8% in the control group (aRD -11.5%, 95% CI -21.9% to -1.2%; number needed to treat 8.7, 95% CI 4.6 to 83.3). CONCLUSION: There is insufficient evidence to recommend neonatal BCG vaccination in all infants for the prevention of eczema in the first year of life; however, a modest beneficial effect was observed among high-risk infants. A single dose of BCG-Denmark soon after birth could reduce the incidence of eczema in infants with two atopic parents.

Early childhood is characterised by repeated infectious exposures that result in inflammatory responses by the innate immune system. In addition, this inflammatory response to infection is thought to contribute to the epidemiological evidence linking childhood infection and adult non-communicable diseases. Consequently, the relationship between innate immune responses and inflammation during early life may inform prevention of NCDs later in life. In adults, non-genetic host factors such as age, sex, and obesity, strongly impact cytokine production and circulating mediators, but data in children are lacking. Here, we assessed cytokine responses and inflammatory markers in a population of healthy preschool children (mean age 4.2 years). We studied associations between cytokines, plasma inflammatory markers and non-genetic host factors, such as sex, age, adiposity, season, and immune cell composition. Similar to adults, boys had a higher inflammatory response than girls, with IL-12p70 and IL-10 upregulated following TLR stimulation. Adiposity and winter season were associated with increased circulating inflammatory markers but not cytokine production. The inflammatory markers GlycA and hsCRP were positively associated with production of a number of cytokines and may therefore reflect innate immune function and inflammatory potential. This dataset will be informative for future prospective studies relating immune parameters to preclinical childhood NCD phenotypes.

BACKGROUND: The association between physical activity and adiposity in preschool-aged children is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cross-sectional association between objectively measured physical activity and body fat in preschool-aged children. METHODS: In the preschool review in an Australian birth cohort study (n = 1074), mean duration and time accumulated in ≥1-min bouts of physical activity at light-intensity (LPA), moderate- to vigorous-intensity (MVPA) and light- to vigorous-intensity (LMVPA) were computed from accelerometer (ActiGraph GT3X+) data. Percent body fat was assessed by bioelectrical impedance. Associations between physical activity and percent body fat were examined by multiple regression, adjusted for accelerometer wear time, MVPA (in analyses of LPA), maternal body mass index (BMI) and maternal education. RESULTS: A total of 450 participants (n = 450) had valid data. There was evidence of associations between physical activity and adiposity: each additional hour of LVPA was associated with 0.6% (CI95 -0.2%, 1.3%) higher body fat; ≥1-min bouts of LPA was associated with 1.0% (CI95 0.1%, 1.9%) higher body fat; each additional hour of MVPA was associated with -0.8% (CI95 -1.6%, -0.1%) less body fat; and ≥1-min bouts of MVPA was associated with -1.3% (CI95 -2.5%, -0.1%) body fat. CONCLUSIONS: Among a cohort of preschool-aged children, there was evidence that more intensive physical activity assessed by an accelerometer is associated with reduced body fat.

Understanding the predictors of progression from a first to a second demyelinating event (and formerly, a diagnosis of clinically definite multiple sclerosis) is important clinically. Previous studies have focused on predictors within a single domain, e.g. radiological, lacking prospective data across multiple domains. We tested a comprehensive set of personal, environmental, neurological, MRI and genetic characteristics, considered together, as predictors of progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. Participants were aged 18-59 years and had a first demyelinating event during the study recruitment period (1 November 2003-31 December 2006) for the Ausimmune Study (n = 216) and had follow-up data to 2-3 years post-initial interview. Detailed baseline data were available on a broad range of demographic and environmental factors, MRI, and genetic and viral studies. Follow-up data included confirmation of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (or not) and changes in environmental exposures during the follow-up period. We used multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling to test predictors of, and time to, conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis. On review, one participant had an undiagnosed event prior to study recruitment and was excluded (n = 215). Data on progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis were available for 91.2% (n = 196); 77% were diagnosed as clinically definite multiple sclerosis at follow-up. Mean (standard deviation) duration of follow-up was 2.7 (0.7) years. The set of predictors retained in the best predictive model for progression from a first demyelinating event to clinically definite multiple sclerosis were as follows: younger age at first demyelinating event [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.87-0.97, per additional year of age); being a smoker at baseline (versus not) (aOR = 2.55, 95% CI 0.85-7.69); lower

BACKGROUND: Lipids play a vital role in health and disease, but changes to their circulating levels and the link with obesity remain poorly characterized in expecting mothers and their offspring in early childhood. METHODS: LC-MS/MS-based quantitation of 480 lipid species was performed on 2491 plasma samples collected at 4 time points in the mother-offspring Asian cohort GUSTO (Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes). These 4 time points constituted samples collected from mothers at 26-28 weeks of gestation (n=752) and 4-5 years postpartum (n=650), and their offspring at birth (n=751) and 6 years of age (n=338). Linear regression models were used to identify the pregnancy and developmental age-specific variations in the plasma lipidomic profiles, and their association with obesity risk. An independent birth cohort (n=1935), the Barwon Infant Study (BIS), comprising mother-offspring dyads of Caucasian origin was used for validation. RESULTS: Levels of 36% of the profiled lipids were significantly higher (absolute fold change > 1.5 and Padj < 0.05) in antenatal maternal circulation as compared to the postnatal phase, with phosphatidylethanolamine levels changing the most. Compared to antenatal maternal lipids, cord blood showed lower concentrations of most lipid species (79%) except lysophospholipids and acylcarnitines. Changes in lipid concentrations from birth to 6 years of age were much higher in magnitude (log2FC=-2.10 to 6.25) than the changes observed between a 6-year-old child and an adult (postnatal mother) (log2FC=-0.68 to 1.18). Associations of cord blood lipidomic profiles with birth weight displayed distinct trends compared to the lipidomic profiles associated with child BMI at 6 years. Comparison of the results between the child and adult BMI identified similarities in association with consistent trends (R2=0.75). However, large number of lipids were associated with BMI in adults (67%) compared to the children (29%). Pre-pregnancy BMI was specif

BACKGROUND: Preclinical studies have shown that maternal gut microbiota during pregnancy play a key role in prenatal immune development but the relevance of these findings to humans is unknown. The aim of this prebirth cohort study was to investigate the association between the maternal gut microbiota in pregnancy and the composition of the infant's cord and peripheral blood immune cells over the first year of life. METHODS: The Barwon Infant Study cohort (n=1074 infants) was recruited using an unselected sampling frame. Maternal fecal samples were collected at 36 weeks of pregnancy and flow cytometry was conducted on cord/peripheral blood collected at birth, 6 and 12 months of age. Among a randomly selected sub-cohort with available samples (n=293), maternal gut microbiota was characterized by sequencing the 16S rRNA V4 region. Operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were clustered based on their abundance. Associations between maternal fecal microbiota clusters and infant granulocyte, monocyte and lymphocyte subsets were explored using compositional data analysis. Partial least squares (PLS) and regression models were used to investigate the relationships/associations between environmental, maternal and infant factors, and OTU clusters. RESULTS: We identified six clusters of co-occurring OTUs. The first two components in the PLS regression explained 39% and 33% of the covariance between the maternal prenatal OTU clusters and immune cell populations in offspring at birth. A cluster in which Dialister, Escherichia, and Ruminococcus were predominant was associated with a lower proportion of granulocytes (p=0.002), and higher proportions of both central naïve CD4+ T cells (CD4+/CD45RA+/CD31-) (p<0.001) and naïve regulatory T cells (Treg) (CD4+/CD45RA+/FoxP3low) (p=0.02) in cord blood. The association with central naïve CD4+ T cells persisted to 12 months of age. CONCLUSION: This birth cohort study provides evidence consistent with past preclinical models that the maternal

INTRODUCTION: Probiotic and Peanut Oral Immunotherapy (PPOIT) is effective at inducing sustained unresponsiveness (SU) at end-of-treatment and this effect persists up to four years post-treatment, referred to as persistent SU. We sought to evaluate (i) how PPOIT altered peanut-specific humoral immune indices, and (ii) how such longitudinal indices relate to persistent SU. METHODS: Longitudinal serum/plasma levels of whole peanut- and peanut component- (Ara-h1, -h2, -h3, -h8, -h9) specific-IgE (sIgE) and specific-IgG4 (sIgG4) antibodies were measured by ImmunoCAP and salivary peanut-specific-IgA (sIgA) by ELISA in children (n=62) enrolled in the PPOIT-001 randomised trial from baseline (T0) to 4-years post-treatment (T5). Multivariate regression analyses of log-transformed values were used for point-in-time between group comparisons. Generalised estimating equations (GEE) were used for longitudinal comparisons between groups. RESULTS: PPOIT was associated with changes in sIgE and sIgG4 over time. sIgE levels were significantly reduced post-treatment [T5, PPOIT v.s. Placebo ratio of geometric mean (GM): Ara-h1 0.07, p=0.008; Ara-h2 0.08, p=0.007; Ara-h3 0.15, p=0.021]. sIgG4 levels were significantly increased by end-of-treatment (T1, PPOIT v.s. Placebo ratio of GM: Ara-h1 3.77, p=0.011; Ara-h2 17.97, p<0.001; Ara-h3 10.42, p<0.001) but levels in PPOIT group decreased once treatment was stopped and returned to levels comparable with Placebo group by T5. Similarly, salivary peanut sIgA increased during treatment, as early as 4 months of treatment (PPOIT v.s. Placebo, ratio of GM: 2.04, p=0.014), then reduced post-treatment. CONCLUSION: PPOIT was associated with broad reduction in peanut specific humoral responses which may mediate the clinical effects of SU that persists to 4-years post-treatment.

BACKGROUND: Australia has one of the highest prevalence of childhood food allergy in the world, but there are no data on its economic burden in Australia. METHODS: We used data from the HealthNuts study, a population-based longitudinal study undertaken in Melbourne, Australia. Infants were recruited at age 12 months between Sept 2007 and Aug 2011 with food allergy diagnosed using oral food challenges. Health care costs of out-of-hospital services were collected through data linkage to Australia's universal health insurance scheme Medicare. Two-part model was used to compare costs after controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: 2919 children were included, and 390 (13.4%) had challenge-confirmed food allergy at age 1 year. Compared with children without food allergy, children with food allergy had significantly higher costs for GP visits, specialist visits, tests, and prescriptions in the first four years of life. The total Medicare cost associated with food allergy from age 1 to 4 years was estimated to be AUD$889.7 (95% CI $566.1-$1188.3) or €411.0 (95% CI €261.5-€549.0) per child. This was projected into an annual Medicare cost of AUD$26.1 million (95% CI $20.1-$32.3 million) or €12.1 (95% CI €9.3-€14.9 million) based on population size in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood food allergy causes considerable Medicare costs for out-of-hospital services in the first four years after birth in Australia. These findings can help anticipate the financial impact on the health care system associated with childhood food allergy, act as a useful costing resource for future evaluations, and inform management of childhood food allergy internationally.

Limited studies have been conducted to identify and validate multiple sclerosis (MS) genetic loci associated with disability progression. We aimed to identify MS genetic loci associated with worsening of disability over time, and to develop and validate ensemble genetic learning model(s) to identify people with MS (PwMS) at risk of future worsening. We examined associations of 208 previously established MS genetic loci with the risk of worsening of disability; we learned ensemble genetic decision rules and validated the predictions in an external dataset. We found 7 genetic loci (rs7731626: HR 0.92, P = 2.4 × 10-5; rs12211604: HR 1.16, P = 3.2 × 10-7; rs55858457: HR 0.93, P = 3.7 × 10-7; rs10271373: HR 0.90, P = 1.1 × 10-7; rs11256593: HR 1.13, P = 5.1 × 10-57; rs12588969: HR = 1.10, P = 2.1 × 10-10; rs1465697: HR 1.09, P = 1.7 × 10-128) associated with risk worsening of disability; most of which were located near or tagged to 13 genomic regions enriched in peptide hormones and steroids biosynthesis pathways by positional and eQTL mapping. The derived ensembles produced a set of genetic decision rules that can be translated to provide additional prognostic values to existing clinical predictions, with the additional benefit of incorporating relevant genetic information into clinical decision making for PwMS. The present study extends our knowledge of MS progression genetics and provides the basis of future studies regarding the functional significance of the identified loci.

BACKGROUND: In Western countries, Asian children have higher food allergy risk than Caucasian children. The early-life environmental exposures for this discrepancy are unclear. We aimed to compare prevalence of food allergy and associated risk factors between Asian children in Singapore and Australia. METHODS: We studied children in the Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) birth cohort (n = 878) and children of Asian ancestry in the HealthNuts cohort (n = 314). Food allergy was defined as a positive SPT ≥3 mm to egg or peanut AND either a convincing history of IgE-mediated reaction at 18 months (GUSTO) or a positive oral food challenge at 14-18 months (HealthNuts). Eczema was defined as parent-reported doctor diagnosis. RESULTS: Food allergy prevalence was 1.1% in Singapore and 15.0% in Australia (P<0.001). Egg introduction was more often delayed (>10 months) in Singapore (63.5%) than Australia (16.3%; P<0.001). Prevalence of early-onset eczema (<6 months) was lower in Singapore (8.4%) than Australia (30.5%) (P<0.001). Children with early-onset eczema were more likely to have food allergy than those without eczema in Australia [aOR 5.11 (2.34-11.14); P<0.001] and Singapore [aOR4.00 (0.62-25.8); P = 0.145]. CONCLUSIONS: Among Asian children, prevalence of early-onset eczema and food allergy was higher in Australia than Singapore. Further research with larger sample sizes and harmonized definitions of food allergy between cohorts is required to confirm and extend these findings. Research on environmental factors influencing eczema onset in Australia and Singapore may aid understanding of food allergy pathogenesis in different parts of the world.

AIM: To determine the incidence, risk factors and health service utilisation for infection in the first 12 months of life in a population-derived Australian pre-birth cohort. METHODS: The Barwon Infant Study is a population-derived pre-birth cohort with antenatal recruitment (n = 1074) based in Geelong, Victoria, Australia. Infection data were collected by parent report, and general practitioner and hospital records at 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. We calculated the incidence of infection, attendance at a health service with infection and used multiple negative binomial regression to investigate the effects of a range of exposures on incidence of infection. RESULTS: In the first 12 months of life, infections of the upper and lower respiratory tract (henceforth 'respiratory infections'), conjunctivitis and gastroenteritis occurred at a rate of 0.35, 0.04 and 0.04 episodes per child-month, respectively. A total of 482 (72.4%) infants attended a general practitioner with an infection and 69 (10.4%) infants attended the emergency department. Maternal antibiotic exposure in pregnancy and having older siblings were associated with respiratory infection. Childcare attendance by 12 months of age was associated with respiratory infections and gastroenteritis. Breastfeeding, even if less than 4 weeks in total, was associated with reduced respiratory infection. CONCLUSION: Infection, especially of the respiratory tract, is a common cause of morbidity in Australian infants. Several potentially modifiable risk factors were identified, particularly for respiratory infections. Most infections were managed by general practitioners and 1 in 10 infants attended an emergency department with infection in the first year of life.

Our inability to reliably predict disease outcomes in multiple sclerosis remains an issue for clinicians and clinical trialists. This study aims to create, from available clinical, genetic and environmental factors; a clinical-environmental-genotypic prognostic index to predict the probability of new relapses and disability worsening. The analyses cohort included prospectively assessed multiple sclerosis cases (N = 253) with 2858 repeated observations measured over 10 years. N = 219 had been diagnosed as relapsing-onset, while N = 34 remained as clinically isolated syndrome by the 10th-year review. Genotype data were available for 199 genetic variants associated with multiple sclerosis risk. Penalized Cox regression models were used to select potential genetic variants and predict risk for relapses and/or worsening of disability. Multivariable Cox regression models with backward elimination were then used to construct clinical-environmental, genetic and clinical-environmental-genotypic prognostic index, respectively. Robust time-course predictions were obtained by Landmarking. To validate our models, Weibull calibration models were used, and the Chi-square statistics, Harrell's C-index and pseudo-R 2 were used to compare models. The predictive performance at diagnosis was evaluated using the Kullback-Leibler and Brier (dynamic) prediction error (reduction) curves. The combined index (clinical-environmental-genotypic) predicted a quadratic time-dynamic disease course in terms of worsening (HR = 2.74, CI: 2.00-3.76; pseudo-R 2=0.64; C-index = 0.76), relapses (HR = 2.16, CI: 1.74-2.68; pseudo-R 2 = 0.91; C-index = 0.85), or both (HR = 3.32, CI: 1.88-5.86; pseudo-R 2 = 0.72; C-index = 0.77). The Kullback-Leibler and Brier curves suggested that for short-term prognosis (≤5 years from diagnosis), the clinical-environmental components of disease were more relevant, whereas the genetic components reduced the prediction errors only in the long-term (≥5 years from diagnosis).

BACKGROUND: Dietary patterns and their association with subsequent clinical course have not been well studied in early multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVES: To describe dietary patterns in people in 5 years following first clinical demyelination and assess associations with MS conversion and relapse. METHODS: This study included baseline food frequency questionnaire dietary intake (entry to the Ausimmune Study) and 5-year follow-up; iterated principal factor analysis was applied. MS conversion and relapse risks were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, study site, education, body mass index (BMI), smoking and omega-3 supplement use. RESULTS: In cases with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system (CNS) demyelination, we identified three major dietary patterns, 'Prudent', 'High-Vegetable' and 'Mixed', explaining 43%, 37% and 24% of diet variance in dietary intake, respectively. Fruits, vegetables, fish, wholegrains and nuts loaded highly on the Prudent pattern, starchy vegetables and legumes on the High-Vegetable pattern, and meats and alcohol on the Mixed pattern. Diet factor scores were not associated with MS conversion risk. Those with baseline Prudent scores above the median had significantly lower relapse risk (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37, 0.81) with some evidence of a plateau effect. CONCLUSION: Prudent diet factor score above the median was prospectively associated with lower relapse risk in the 5 years following the first clinical demyelinating event.

BACKGROUND: Murine studies demonstrate that maternal prenatal gut microbiota influences brain development and behaviour of offspring. No human study has related maternal gut microbiota to behavioural outcomes during early life. This study aimed to evaluate relationships between the prenatal faecal microbiota, prenatal diet and childhood behaviour. METHODS: A sub-cohort of 213 mothers and 215 children were selected from a longitudinal pre-birth cohort. Maternal prenatal exposure measures collected during the third trimester included the faecal microbiota (generated using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing), and dietary intake. The behavioural outcome used the Childhood Behaviour Checklist at age two. Models were adjusted for prenatal diet, smoking, perceived stress, maternal age and sample batch. FINDINGS: We found evidence that the alpha diversity of the maternal faecal microbiota during the third trimester of pregnancy predicts child internalising behaviour at two years of age (-2·74, (-4·71, -0·78), p = 0·01 (Wald test), R2=0·07). Taxa from butyrate-producing families, Lachnospiraceae and Ruminococcaceae, were more abundant in mothers of children with normative behaviour. A healthy prenatal diet indirectly related to decreased child internalising behaviours via higher alpha diversity of maternal faecal microbiota. INTERPRETATION: These findings support animal studies showing that the composition of maternal prenatal gut microbiota is related to offspring brain development and behaviour. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate potential impacts of the prenatal gut microbiota on early life brain development. FUNDING: This study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (1082307, 1147980), Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Barwon Health and Deakin University.

OBJECTIVES: Larger sibships are associated with poorer cognitive and language outcomes but have different impacts on child emotional development. Previous studies have not taken into account sibling age, nor have impacts across multiple neurodevelopmental domains been considered in the same participant group. This study investigated the influence of family size indicators on early childhood cognitive, language and emotional-behavioural development. The effect of sibling age was considered by evaluating these relationships separately for different sibling age categories. DESIGN: Prospective birth cohort study. SETTING: Participants in the Barwon Infant Study were recruited from two major hospitals in the Barwon region of Victoria, Australia, between 2010 and 2013 (n=1074 children). PARTICIPANTS: The 755 children with any neurodevelopmental data at age 2-3 years excluding twins and those with an acquired neurodisability. OUTCOME MEASURES: Cognitive and language development was assessed using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition, and emotional-behavioural development was measured with the Child Behaviour Checklist for Ages 1½-5. RESULTS: Greater household size was associated with a reduced cognitive development score (adjusted mean difference (AMD) -0.66 per extra household member; 95% CI -0.96 to -0.37; p<0.001) without age-specific differences. However, poorer expressive language was only observed for exposure to siblings between 2-6 and 6-10 years older. Having siblings 2-6 years older was associated with less internalising behaviour (AMD -2.1 per sibling; 95% CI -3.1 to -1.0; p<0.001). These associations persisted after multiple comparison adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: The influence of siblings on early childhood development varies substantially by sibling age and the neurodevelopmental outcome under study. Although family size alone appears important for cognitive development, age-specific findings emphasise the importance of sibling inter

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with acute respiratory infection (ARI) in early life, but this has not been evaluated in Indonesia. We aimed to determine the incidence of ARI in Indonesian infants, and to evaluate the association with vitamin D deficiency. METHODS: From 23 December 2015 to 31 December 2017, we conducted a community-based prospective cohort study in Yogyakarta province. We enrolled 422 pregnant women and followed their infants from birth until 12 months of age for ARI episodes. Vitamin D status was measured at birth and at age six months. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to evaluate the association between vitamin D deficiency and pneumonia incidence. RESULTS: At study completion, 95% (400/422) of infants retained with a total of 412 child years of observation (CYO). The incidence of all ARI and of WHO-defined pneumonia was 3.89 (95% CI 3.70-4.08) and 0.25 (95% CI 0.21-0.30) episodes per CYO respectively. Vitamin D deficiency at birth was common (90%, 308/344) and associated with more frequent episodes of ARI non-pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio 4.48, 95% CI:1.04-19.34). Vitamin D status at birth or six months was not associated with subsequent pneumonia incidence, but greater maternal sun exposure during pregnancy was associated with a trend to less frequent ARI and pneumonia in infants. CONCLUSION: ARI, pneumonia, and vitamin D deficiency at birth were common in Indonesian infants. Minimising vitamin D deficiency at birth such as by supplementation of mothers or safe sun exposure during pregnancy has the potential to reduce ARI incidence in infants in this setting.

Background: We aimed to estimate the association between exposure to adversity and inflammatory markers in mid (4 years) and late (11–12 years) childhood, and whether effects differ by type and timing of exposure. Methods: Data sources: Barwon Infant Study (BIS; N = 510 analyzed) and Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC; N = 1156 analyzed). Exposures: Adversity indicators assessed from 0 to 4 (BIS) and 0–11 years (LSAC): parent legal problems, mental illness and substance abuse, anger in parenting responses, separation/divorce, unsafe neighborhood, and family member death; a count of adversities; and, in LSAC only, early (0–3), middle (4–7), or later (10–11) initial exposure. Outcomes: Inflammation quantified by high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP, Log (ug/ml)) and glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA, Log (umol/L)). Analyses: Linear regression was used to estimate relative change in inflammatory markers, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, with exposure to adversity. Outcomes were log-transformed. Results: Evidence of an association between adversity and hsCRP was weak and inconsistent (e.g., 3+ versus no adversity: BIS: 12% higher, 95%CI -49.4, 147.8; LSAC 4.6% lower, 95%CI: −36.6, 48.3). A small positive association between adversity and GlycA levels was observed at both 4 years (e.g., 3+ versus no adversity: 3.3% higher, 95%CI -3.0, 9.9) and 11–12 years (3.2% higher, 95%CI 0.8, 5.8). In LSAC, we did not find evidence that inflammatory outcomes differed by initial timing of adversity exposure. Conclusions: Small positive associations between adversity and inflammation were consistently observed for GlycA, across two cohorts with differing ages. Further work is needed to understand mechanisms, clinical relevance, and to identify opportunities for early intervention.

Ubiquitous exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) has caused serious concerns about the ability of these chemicals to affect neurodevelopment, among others. Since endocrine disruption (ED)-induced developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) is hardly covered by the chemical testing tools that are currently in regulatory use, the Horizon 2020 research and innovation action ENDpoiNTs has been launched to fill the scientific and methodological gaps related to the assessment of this type of chemical toxicity. The ENDpoiNTs project will generate new knowledge about ED-induced DNT and aims to develop and improve in vitro, in vivo, and in silico models pertaining to ED-linked DNT outcomes for chemical testing. This will be achieved by establishing correlative and causal links between known and novel neurodevelopmental endpoints and endocrine pathways through integration of molecular, cellular, and organismal data from in vitro and in vivo models. Based on this knowledge, the project aims to provide adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for ED-induced DNT and to develop and integrate new testing tools with high relevance for human health into European and international regulatory frameworks.

In mice, the maternal microbiome influences fetal immune development and postnatal allergic outcomes. Westernized populations have high rates of allergic disease and low rates of gastrointestinal carriage of Prevotella, a commensal bacterial genus that produces short chain fatty acids and endotoxins, each of which may promote the development of fetal immune tolerance. In this study, we use a prebirth cohort (n = 1064 mothers) to conduct a nested case-cohort study comparing 58 mothers of babies with clinically proven food IgE mediated food allergy with 258 randomly selected mothers. Analysis of the V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene in fecal samples shows maternal carriage of Prevotella copri during pregnancy strongly predicts the absence of food allergy in the offspring. This association was confirmed using targeted qPCR and was independent of infant carriage of P. copri. Larger household size, which is a well-established protective factor for allergic disease, strongly predicts maternal carriage of P. copri.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have investigated the antecedents and outcomes of infants who demonstrate IgE sensitization to foods that they clinically tolerate. Improved understanding of this sensitized-tolerant phenotype may inform strategies for the prevention of food allergy. METHODS: In an Australian birth cohort (n = 1074), assembled using an unselected antenatal sampling frame, participants were categorized as nonsensitized (NS), sensitizedtolerant (ST), or food allergic (FA) based on skin prick testing and food challenge at 12 months of age. Environmental exposures were recorded throughout. Cord blood regulatory T-cell populations were measured at birth. Subsequent childhood allergic disease was assessed by parent report, clinical examination, and repeat skin prick testing. RESULTS: The covariates of interest varied between NS (n = 698), ST (n = 27), and FA (n = 61) groups as follows, suggesting that across these measures, the ST group was more similar to the NS than the FA group: family history of eczema NS 44.6%, ST. 44.6%, FA 65.6%; pet ownership at 12 months: NS 71.5%, ST 81.5%, FA 45.8%; eczema during the first 12 months: NS 19%, ST 32%, FA 64%; and aeroallergen sensitization at 4 years: NS 19.1%, ST 28.6%, FA 44.4%. At birth, a higher proportion of activated regulatory T cells was associated with ST (OR = 2.89, 95% CI 1.03-8.16, P = .045). CONCLUSION: Food-sensitized-tolerance in infancy appears to be associated with a similar pattern of exposures, immunity, and outcomes to nonsensitized infants. In addition, we found some evidence that an elevated proportion of activated regulatory T cells at birth was specific to the sensitized-tolerant infants, which may be relevant to suppression of clinical disease.

BACKGROUND: The association between childhood vaccinations and infections and risk of multiple sclerosis is unclear; few studies have considered age at vaccination/infection. OBJECTIVE: To explore age-related associations between childhood vaccinations, infection and tonsillectomy and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination. METHODS: Data on case (n = 275, 76.6% female; mean age 38.6 years) and age- and sex-matched control (n = 529) participants in an incident population-based case-control study included self-reported age at time of childhood vaccinations, infections, and tonsillectomy. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Poliomyelitis vaccination prior to school-age was associated with increased risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination (AOR = 2.60, 95%CI 1.02-6.68), based on a very small unvaccinated reference group. Late (11-15 years) rubella vaccination (compared to none) was associated with lower odds of being a case (AOR = 0.47, 95%CI 0.27-0.83). Past infectious mononucleosis at 11-15 years (AOR = 2.84, 95%CI 1.0-7.57) and 16-20 years (AOR = 1.92, 95%CI 1.12-3.27) or tonsillectomy in adolescence (11-15 years: AOR = 2.45, 95%CI 1.12-5.35), including after adjustment for IM, were associated with increased risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination. CONCLUSIONS: Age at vaccination, infection or tonsillectomy may alter the risk of subsequent CNS demyelination. Failing to account for age effects may explain inconsistencies in past findings.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D deficiency in infants has been associated with an increased risk of a number of diseases but there are limited data on the prevalence and determinants of vitamin D deficiency from tropical settings with high infant morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and determinants of vitamin D deficiency in infants at birth and at six months of age in Yogyakarta province, Indonesia. DESIGN: Serum vitamin D of eligible infants was measured in cord blood at birth and at six months of age. Factors associated with vitamin D deficiency (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D <50 nmol/L) were collected prospectively monthly from birth and concentrations measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Independent risk factors were identified by multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Between December 2015 to December 2017, 350 maternal-newborn participants were recruited and followed up. Vitamin D deficiency was detected in 90% (308/344) of cord blood samples and 13% (33/255) of venous blood samples at six months. Longer time outdoors (≥2 hours per day) and maternal multivitamin intake containing vitamin D during pregnancy were protective against vitamin D deficiency at birth (AOR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.01-0.90 and AOR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.06-0.68, respectively). Risk factors for vitamin D deficiency at six months included lower cumulative skin-sun exposure score (AOR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.04-1.20), severe vitamin D deficiency at birth (AOR: 7.73, 95% CI: 1.20-49.60) and exclusive breastfeeding (AOR: 2.64, 95% CI: 1.07-6.49) until six months. Among exclusively breast fed (EBF) infants, a higher skin-sun exposure score was associated with reduced vitamin D deficiency risk. CONCLUSION: In equatorial regions, the role of 'safe' morning sun exposure in infants and mothers in populations with medium to dark brown skin pigmentation and effective interventions to prevent vitamin D deficiency in newborns and EBF infants, need further consideration and evaluation

BACKGROUND: Due to the considerable burden of multiple sclerosis (MS)-related symptoms and the need to identify effective interventions to prevent disease progression, various nutraceutical interventions have been trialed as adjunctive treatments. The aim of this review was to investigate the efficacy and safety of nutraceutical interventions for clinical and biological outcomes in people with MS. METHODS: In accordance with PRISMA reporting guidelines, a systematic literature search was conducted using three electronic literature databases. Risk of bias was assessed using the Jadad scale. RESULTS: Thirty-seven randomized controlled trials, investigating fourteen nutraceuticals, were included in the review. Trials that investigated alpha lipoic acid (n = 4/6), ginkgo biloba (n = 3/5), vitamin A (n = 2/2), biotin (n = 1/2), carnitine (n = 1/2), green tea (n = 1/2), coenzyme Q10 (n = 1/1), probiotics (n = 1/1), curcumin (n = 1/1), Andrographis paniculata (n = 1/1), ginseng (n = 1/1), and lemon verbena (n = 1/1) were reported to improve biological (e.g. MRI brain volume change, antioxidant capacity) and/or clinical (e.g. fatigue, depression, Expanded Disability Status Scale) outcomes in multiple sclerosis compared to control. However, most trials were relatively small (average study sample size across included studies, n = 55) and there were few replicate studies per nutraceutical to validate the reported results. Furthermore, some nutraceuticals (e.g. green tea and inosine) should be used with caution due to reported adverse events. Risk of bias across most studies was low, with 31 studies receiving a score between 4 and 5 (out of 5) on the Jadad Scale. CONCLUSION: The existing literature provides preliminary support for the use of a number of nutraceutical interventions in MS. However, sufficiently powered long-term trials are required to expand the currently limited literature and to investigate unexplored nutraceuticals that may target relevant pathways involved in

AIM: To investigate the relationship between factors which influence external microbial exposures (FEMEs), previously identified to be protective or to increase the risk of the development of allergic disease, and cognition and behaviour in infants 2 years of age in an Australian population. METHOD: The Barwon Infant Study is a birth cohort (n = 1074) in Victoria, Australia. Comprehensive questionnaire, clinical and biological measures were collected at multiple time oints. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the associations between 56 FEMEs and 3 outcomes; cognition (Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (BAYLEY-III)) (n = 667, mean (standard deviation) age = 2.45 (0.14) years), internalising and externalising behaviour (Child Behavior Checklist) (n = 666, mean (standard deviation) age = 2.45 (0.14) years). RESULTS: Overall, there were no consistent patterns or dose response found within an outcome nor across all three outcomes, although there was some evidence for individual associations. Breastfeeding and child care were associated with higher cognitive scores (adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval) = 3.20 (0.23-6.17) and 0.68 (0.12-1.24), respectively), and increasing sibling number was associated with lower internalising behaviour (adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval) = -4.13 (-6.34, -1.91)). CONCLUSION: In contrast to allergic disease, there was an absence of epidemiological evidence to support the association between these FEMEs and cognition and behaviour. Direct investigations into the relationship between exposures which influence gut-microbial composition and cognition and behaviour are now needed.

Parental occupational exposures to pesticides, animals and organic dust have been associated with an increased risk of childhood cancer based mostly on case-control studies. We prospectively evaluated parental occupational exposures and risk of childhood leukemia and central nervous system (CNS) tumors in the International Childhood Cancer Cohort Consortium. We pooled data on 329,658 participants from birth cohorts in five countries (Australia, Denmark, Israel, Norway and United Kingdom). Parental occupational exposures during pregnancy were estimated by linking International Standard Classification of Occupations-1988 job codes to the ALOHA+ job exposure matrix. Risk of childhood (<15 years) acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL; n = 129), acute myeloid leukemia (AML; n = 31) and CNS tumors (n = 158) was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Paternal exposures to pesticides and animals were associated with increased risk of childhood AML (herbicides HR = 3.22, 95% CI = 0.97-10.68; insecticides HR = 2.86, 95% CI = 0.99-8.23; animals HR = 3.89, 95% CI = 1.18-12.90), but not ALL or CNS tumors. Paternal exposure to organic dust was positively associated with AML (HR = 2.38 95% CI = 1.12-5.07), inversely associated with ALL (HR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.31-0.99) and not associated with CNS tumors. Low exposure prevalence precluded evaluation of maternal pesticide and animal exposures; we observed no significant associations with organic dust exposure. This first prospective analysis of pooled birth cohorts and parental occupational exposures provides evidence for paternal agricultural exposures as childhood AML risk factors. The different risks for childhood ALL associated with maternal and paternal organic dust exposures should be investigated further.

BACKGROUND: Despite intense interest in the relationship between gut microbiota and brain development, longitudinal data from human studies are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the composition of gut microbiota during infancy and subsequent behavioural outcomes. METHODS: A subcohort of 201 children with behavioural outcome measures was identified within a longitudinal, Australian birth-cohort study. The faecal microbiota were analysed at 1, 6, and 12 months of age. Behavioural outcomes were measured at 2 years of age. FINDINGS: In an unselected birth cohort, we found a clear association between decreased normalised abundance of Prevotella in faecal samples collected at 12 months of age and increased behavioural problems at 2 years, in particular Internalizing Problem scores. This association appeared independent of multiple potentially confounding variables, including maternal mental health. Recent exposure to antibiotics was the best predictor of decreased Prevotella. INTERPRETATION: Our findings demonstrate a strong association between the composition of the gut microbiota in infancy and subsequent behavioural outcomes; and support the importance of responsible use of antibiotics during early life. FUNDING: This study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (1082307, 1147980, 1129813), The Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Barwon Health, Deakin University, Perpetual Trustees, and The Shepherd Foundation. The funders had no involvement in the data collection, analysis or interpretation, trial design, recruitment or any other aspect pertinent to the study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: As caesarean delivery and childhood allergy continue to rise, their inter-relationships may change. We examined whether caesarean delivery predicts allergic disease and impaired lung function in two contemporary harmonised population-based cohorts. METHODS: Parent-reported asthma and eczema data were drawn from two prospective Australian infant cohorts, HealthNuts (n=5276, born 2006-2010) and the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC, n=5107, born 2003-2004) at age 6-7 years, and spirometric lung function from LSAC's Child Health CheckPoint (n=1756) at age 11-12 years. Logistic regression estimated associations between delivery mode and current asthma and eczema at 6-7 years, and linear regression examined lung function at 11-12 years. Models were adjusted for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Complete case analysis included 3135 HealthNuts and 3654 LSAC children (32.2% and 30.9% born by caesarean, respectively). An association was evident between caesarean delivery and asthma at age 6-7 years in HealthNuts (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.57) but not in LSAC (aOR 1.05, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.28), while neither study showed clear associations with eczema (HealthNuts: aOR 1.09, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.35; LSAC: aOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.15). Spirometric lung function parameters at age 11-12 years were similar by delivery mode. Associations were not modified by duration of breast feeding, maternal history of asthma/eczema, childcare attendance, number of older siblings or pet exposure. CONCLUSIONS: In two unselected populations using harmonised protocols, the likely association of caesarean delivery with developing childhood allergy was small.

AIM: The burden of wheezing illnesses in Australian infants has not been documented since the success of initiatives to reduce maternal cigarette smoking. We aimed to determine the incidence of wheeze and related health-care utilisation during the first year of life among a contemporary Australian birth cohort. METHODS: A birth cohort of 1074 infants was assembled between 2010 and 2013. Parents completed questionnaires periodically. Several non-exclusive infant respiratory disease phenotypes were defined, including any wheeze, wheeze with shortness of breath and recurrent wheeze. Skin prick testing was performed to determine atopic wheeze. Health-care utilisation for respiratory disease was determined from questionnaires and hospital medical records. RESULTS: Retention to 1 year was 840/1074 (83%). The incidence of any wheeze was 51.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 48.3-55.2%), wheeze with shortness of breath 20.6% (95% CI 17.9-23.5), recurrent wheeze 19.4% (95% CI 16.8-22.2) and atopic wheeze 6% (95% CI 4.6-7.8). Respiratory illness resulted in primary health-care utilisation in 82.2% (95% CI 79.3-84.8) of participants and hospital presentation in 8.8% (95% CI 7.2-10.6). Maternal smoking during pregnancy was uncommon (15.7%) and was not associated with wheeze or health resource utilisation. Male gender, familial atopy and asthma and smaller household size were associated with a higher incidence of wheeze. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of wheezing illness among Australian infants remains high despite relatively low rates of maternal smoking during pregnancy. The majority of the health-care burden is borne by primary health-care services. Further research is required to inform novel prevention strategies.

This case suggests a possible association between Klinefelter Syndrome and decreased regulatory T cells (Treg) cells, relating to an increased risk of allergic and autoimmune disorders in these patients. The immune phenotyping of the circulating FOXP3+ naive Treg populations in KS patients may help to indicate this predisposition.

Maternal immune dysregulation seems to affect fetal or postnatal immune development. Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-associated disorder with an immune basis and is linked to atopic disorders in offspring. Here we show reduction of fetal thymic size, altered thymic architecture and reduced fetal thymic regulatory T (Treg) cell output in preeclamptic pregnancies, which persists up to 4 years of age in human offspring. In germ-free mice, fetal thymic CD4+ T cell and Treg cell development are compromised, but rescued by maternal supplementation with the intestinal bacterial metabolite short chain fatty acid (SCFA) acetate, which induces upregulation of the autoimmune regulator (AIRE), known to contribute to Treg cell generation. In our human cohorts, low maternal serum acetate is associated with subsequent preeclampsia, and correlates with serum acetate in the fetus. These findings suggest a potential role of acetate in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia and immune development in offspring.

The evidence associating red meat consumption and risk of multiple sclerosis is inconclusive. We tested associations between red meat consumption and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD), often presaging a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. We used food frequency questionnaire data from the 2003-2006 Ausimmune Study, an incident, matched, case-control study examining environmental risk factors for FCD. We calculated non-processed and processed red meat density (g/1,000 kcal/day). Conditional logistic regression models (with participants matched on age, sex, and study region) were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p-values for associations between non-processed (n = 689, 250 cases, 439 controls) and processed (n = 683, 248 cases, 435 controls) red meat density and risk of FCD. Models were adjusted for history of infectious mononucleosis, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, smoking, race, education, body mass index and dietary misreporting. A one standard deviation increase in non-processed red meat density (22 g/1,000 kcal/day) was associated with a 19% reduced risk of FCD (AOR = 0.81; 95%CI 0.68, 0.97; p = 0.02). When stratified by sex, higher non-processed red meat density (per 22 g/1,000 kcal/day) was associated with a 26% reduced risk of FCD in females (n = 519; AOR = 0.74; 95%CI 0.60, 0.92; p = 0.01). There was no statistically significant association between non-processed red meat density and risk of FCD in males (n = 170). We found no statistically significant association between processed red meat density and risk of FCD. Further investigation is warranted to understand the important components of a diet that includes non-processed red meat for lower FCD risk.

Cutaneous sun exposure is an important determinant of circulating vitamin D. Both sun exposure and vitamin D have been inversely associated with risk of autoimmune disease. In juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), low circulating vitamin D appears common, but disease-related behavioral changes may have influenced sun exposure. We therefore aimed to determine whether predisease sun exposure is associated with JIA. Using validated questionnaires, we retrospectively measured sun exposure for 202 Caucasian JIA case-control pairs born in Victoria Australia, matched for birth year and time of recruitment. Measures included maternal sun exposure at 12 weeks of pregnancy and child sun exposure across the life-course prediagnosis. We converted exposure to UVR dose and looked for case-control differences using logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. Higher cumulative prediagnosis UVR exposure was associated with reduced risk of JIA, with a clear dose-response relationship (trend P = 0.04). UVR exposure at 12 weeks of pregnancy was similarly inversely associated with JIA (trend P = 0.011). Associations were robust to sensitivity analyses for prediagnosis behavioral changes, disease duration and knowledge of the hypothesis. Our data indicate that lower UVR exposure may increase JIA risk. This may be through decreased circulating vitamin D, but prospective studies are required to confirm this.

BACKGROUND: IgE-mediated egg allergy presents as one of the most common food allergies in children. Measurement of egg white specific IgE (sIgE) levels in serum or skin prick test has been shown to be a poor predictor of clinical allergy to raw egg white, and also to baked or cooked egg. Recent developments in component resolved diagnostic (CRD) technology have enabled us to improve the way in which we diagnose and predict peanut allergy by examining IgE specificity to individual peptides. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate whether egg CRD could improve current methods to diagnose various egg allergy phenotypes as well as predict the development of tolerance to egg. METHODS: Using the HealthNuts cohort of food challenge-proven egg allergic and egg-sensitized and egg-tolerant, age-matched 12-month infants with longitudinal follow-up at 2 and 4 years (n = 451), we measured serum egg white, Gal d 1, 2, 3 and 5 sIgE using ImmunoCAP. RESULTS: Gal d 1 sensitization increased the risk of persistent egg allergy by 2.5-fold. The production of sIgE to all four egg allergens (Gal d 1, 2, 3 or 5) increased the risk of having persistent raw egg allergy fourfold (OR 4.19 (95% CI: 1.25-14.07). We did not find any improvements of using Gal d 1, 2, 3 or 5 to diagnose current egg allergy compared to egg white sIgE. CONCLUSION: Sensitization to multiple egg allergens Gal d 1, 2, 3 or 5 may be a prognostic marker that could be useful for patient management and identifying individuals at risk of developing persistent egg allergy.

INTRODUCTION: BCG vaccination reduces all-cause infant mortality in high-mortality settings by more than can be attributed to protection against tuberculosis. This is proposed to result from non-specific protection against non-vaccine targeted ('off-target') infections. There is also evidence that BCG protects against allergic diseases. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Melbourne Infant Study: BCG for Allergy and Infection Reduction is a phase III multicentre, single-blinded, randomised controlled trial. A total of 1438 healthy neonates will be randomised to receive either BCG vaccination or no BCG vaccination in the first 10 days of life. Measures of allergy, eczema, infection and asthma will be obtained from parent-completed questionnaires 3 monthly in the first year and 6 monthly from 1 to 5 years of age, and clinical assessments at 1 and 5 years of age. Biological samples will also be collected for future immunological studies. ANALYSIS PRIMARY OUTCOME: The proportion of participants with measures of allergy and infection (atopic sensitisation, eczema, lower respiratory tract infection) at 1 and 5 years of age, and asthma at 5 years of age. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: (1) the proportion of participants with additional measures of allergy, eczema, asthma and infections; (2) medication use for eczema and asthma; (3) the severity and age of onset of eczema and asthma; (4) the number of episodes of infection; (5) hospitalisations for infections and (6) laboratory measures of immune responses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial has ethical and governance approval from Mercy Health Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC, No. R12-28) and Royal Children's Hospital HREC (No. 33025) with additional governance approval from Barwon Health and St John of God, Geelong, Victoria. Results of this trial will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01906853.

OBJECTIVES: The incidence of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing worldwide. Ecological studies show higher incidence in regions at higher latitude or lower ambient ultraviolet radiation; individual-level associations with sun exposure have not been assessed. METHODS: We recruited children (0-17 years) with IBD from 2 large hospitals in Melbourne, Australia. Control participants were recruited from the day surgery unit of one of the same hospitals. Questionnaires provided data on demographics, past sun exposure, the likelihood of sunburn (skin sensitivity) or tanning following sun exposure, use of sun protection, physical activity, and parental smoking and education. Grandparent ancestry was used to determine participant ethnicity. Cases and controls were matched on age and sex. We used conditional logistic regression to test the association between being an IBD case and past sun exposure at different ages, adjusted for a range of other factors. RESULTS: After matching, n = 99 cases and n = 396 controls were included in the analysis. In multivariable analysis, for each 10 min increment in leisure-time sun exposure in summer or winter there was a linear 6% reduction in the odds of having IBD (P = 0.002). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses including only the most recently diagnosed cases, only Caucasian cases and controls, only those with symptom onset within the year before study entry, or additionally adjusted for age or physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Higher sun exposure in the previous summer or winter was associated with a reduced risk of having IBD. There are plausible pathways that could mediate this effect.