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Serum creatinine in neonates follows complex dynamics due to maturation processes, most pronounced in the first few weeks of life. The development of a mechanism-based model describing complex dynamics requires high expertise in pharmacometric (PMX) modeling and substantial model development time. A recently published machine learning (ML) approach of low-dimensional neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) is capable of modeling such data from newborns automatically. However, this efficient data-driven approach in itself does not result in a clinically interpretable model. In this work, an approach to deriving an interpretable model with reasonable PMX-type functions is presented. This “translation” was applied to derive a PMX model for serum creatinine in neonates considering maturation processes and covariates. The developed model was compared to a previously published mechanism-based PMX model whereas both models had similar mechanistic structures. The developed model was then utilized to simulate serum creatinine concentrations in the first few weeks of life considering different covariate values for gestational age and birth weight. The reference serum creatinine values derived from these simulations are consistent with observed serum creatinine values and previously published reference values. Thus, the presented NODE-based ML approach to model complex serum creatinine dynamics in newborns and derive interpretable, mathematical-statistical components similar to those in a conventional PMX model demonstrates a novel, viable approach to facilitate the modeling of complex dynamics in clinical settings and pediatric drug development.

Introduction: Oral ibuprofen is more effective than intravenous (IV) ibuprofen for closure of a patent ductus arteriosus (PDA). This study explored whether higher concentrations of the biologically active S-enantiomer or increased R- to S-conversion following oral dosing could explain this finding. Methods: Two datasets containing 370 S- and R-ibuprofen concentrations from 95 neonates with PDA treated with oral (n = 27, 28%) or IV ibuprofen were analyzed using nonlinear mixed effects modeling. Concentration-time profiles in typical neonates were explored and compared in different dosing or R- to S-conversion scenarios. Results: Postnatal age (PNA), gestational age (GA), and being small for GA impacted S- and R-ibuprofen clearance. Upon oral dosing, S-ibuprofen concentrations were lower compared to IV ibuprofen for a large part of the dosing interval. We could show that R- to S-conversion will not exceed 45%. Exploration of a 30% presystemic R- to S-conversion resulted in a 25-32% increase in S-ibuprofen exposure following oral administration with AUC72h values varying between 700-2,213 mg∗h/L (oral) and 531-1,762 (IV) for the standard or 1,704-2,893 (oral) and 1,295-2,271 mg∗h/L (IV) for PNA-based dosing. Discussion: The absence of higher S-ibuprofen concentrations does not support a beneficial concentration-time profile after oral dosing. While a fraction of up to 45% presystemic R- to S-conversion could not be ruled out, the impact of such a low conversion might be only relevant for the standard but not high dosing regimens, considering reported exposure-response targets. Perhaps, the lack of high peak concentrations observed following IV dosing may play a role in the observed effects upon oral dosing.

AIM OF THE STUDY: The global prevalence of scabies is estimated to be up to 200 million cases annually, with young children particularly affected. In Europe, most cases are thought to originate in migrant populations. Scabies management is challenging in children. To identify knowledge gaps and research needs, we aimed to descriptively evaluate the management of children with scabies by different Swiss healthcare providers. METHODS: An invitation for an anonymous online survey (36 questions) was sent to members of Swiss societies of dermatologists, general practitioners, paediatricians, paediatric dermatologists, paediatric infectious diseases specialists, and tropical medicine specialists, inviting clinicians to participate from 25th May to 8th August 2020. One reminder invitation was sent. Hospital pharmacies and the distributor of permethrin were contacted to report consumption trends of scabicides in 2018 and 2019. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 248 clinicians: 146 (59%) paediatricians, 47 (19%) dermatologists, 28 (11%) general practitioners, 6 (2%) paediatric dermatologists, 13 (5%) paediatric infectious diseases specialists, and 8 (3%) tropical medicine specialists. Most consulted up to 10 scabies cases within a 16-month period, with similar numbers in migrant and Swiss children. Dermoscopy was used by 24% of non-dermatologists. Non-dermatologists did not consider co-treatment of close contacts in up to 59% of cases. While permethrin was the first-line treatment, treatment failures were frequently reported in children aged <5 years. Up to 67% of paediatric dermatologists regularly used oral ivermectin off-label in children weighing <15 kg. None of the paediatric dermatologists, 15% of the dermatologists, and 9% of the non-dermatologists used only one treatment cycle.Scabicide consumption increased. Treatment studies on ivermectin use in children weighing <15 kg had the highest research priority. CONCLUSION: In Switzerland, scabies is a frequent dermatosi

Objectives: Intranasal nalbuphine could be a safe, efficacious and non-invasive alternative to parenteral pain medication in infants. We aimed to assess pharmacokinetics (PK) and tolerability of intranasal and intravenous nalbuphine administration in infants. Methods: Prospective open-label study including infants 1-3 months of age admitted to the emergency department, receiving nalbuphine for procedural pain management. Patients were alternately allocated to a single nalbuphine dose of 0.05 mg/kg intravenously or 0.1 mg/kg intranasally. Nalbuphine PK samples were collected 15, 30 and 120-180 min after dosing. Area under the concentration time curve (AUC0-Tlast) was calculated by non-compartmental analysis (NCA) and compared by Wilcoxon test. Neonatal Infant Pain Score was assessed during nalbuphine administration and the following interventions: venous access, urinary catheterisation, lumbar puncture. Results: Out of 52 study subjects receiving nalbuphine, 31 were eligible for NCA (11 intravenous, 20 intranasal). Median AUC0-Tlast after 0.05 mg/kg intravenously was 8.7 (IQR: 8.0-18.6) µg×L/hour vs 7.6 (5.4-10.4) µg×L/hour after intranasal administration of 0.1 mg/kg (p=0.091). Maximum serum concentration (Cmax) was observed 30 min after intranasal administration (3.5-5.6 µg/L). During intravenous and intranasal nalbuphine administration, mild to no pain was recorded in 71% and 67% of study subjects, respectively. Conclusion: This is the first study investigating intranasal administration of nalbuphine in infants suggesting an intranasal bioavailability close to 50%. Non-invasive intranasal application was well tolerated. Additional studies are warranted to optimise dosing and timing of interventions as Cmax is delayed by half an hour after intranasal administration. Trial registration number: NCT03059511. Keywords: paediatric emergency medicine; pain.

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a chronic immune-mediated inflammatory skin disease affecting both adults and children. To better understand the efficacy-safety profile of biologics in children with moderate-to-severe psoriasis, this study aimed to analyze efficacy and safety data of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) performed in pediatric psoriasis and to compare efficacy outcomes in children with those in adults. METHODS: RCTs investigating biologics in children with moderate-to-severe psoriasis were identified in a systematic literature review. PASI75/90 treatment responses at weeks 11/12 were analyzed comparing biologics with control arms. Serious adverse events (SAEs) were analyzed at the end of each study. Efficacy data from RCTs in adults with psoriasis were selected for the same biologics. Risk ratios (RR) of selected RCTs were pooled together in a statistical random effects model using the inverse variance method. RESULTS: For children, there were 1 etanercept, 2 secukinumab, 1 ixekizumab and 1 ustekinumab placebo-controlled RCTs and 1 adalimumab RCT using methotrexate as reference arm at weeks 11/12. For adults, out of 263 RCTs, 7 adalimumab and 15 etanercept (TNF inhibitors) and 4 ixekizumab and 12 ustekinumab (IL-17 and IL-12/23 inhibitors) RCTs reported PASI75/90 efficacy responses at weeks 11/12. Regarding efficacy, all biologics showed improved PASI responses over control arms. RRs ranges were 2.02-7.45 in PASI75 and 4.10-14.50 in PASI90. The highest PASI75 responses were seen for ustekinumab 0.375 mg/kg (RR = 7.25, 95% CI 2.83-18.58) and ustekinumab 0.75 mg/kg (RR = 7.45, 95% CI 2.91-19.06) in the CADMUS study. The highest PASI90 response was seen for ixekizumab (RR = 14.50, 95% CI 4.82-43.58) in the IXORA-PEDS study. SAE incidences in pediatric and adult arms with biologics were 0 to 3% except for a pediatric arm with adalimumab 0.40 mg/kg (8%). For adults, pooled RR also showed improved PASI responses over placebo for all biologics, with highest PASI75

Objectives: The objective of this pharmacometric (PMX) study was to (i) characterize population pharmacokinetics (PPK) and exposure-pain response associations following intranasal (0.1 mg/kg) or intravenous (IV, 0.05 mg/kg) administration of nalbuphine, with the goal to (ii) evaluate strategies for optimized dosing and timing of painful interventions in infants 1-3 months old. Methods: PPK analysis of nalbuphine serum concentrations, prospectively collected 15, 30, and between 120 and 180 min post-dose, utilizing the software package Monolix. The final PPK model was applied to derive individual time-matched concentration predictions for each pain assessment (Neonatal Infant Pain Score, NIPS) after establishment of venous access and urinary catheterization or lumbar puncture. Drug exposure-pain response simulations were performed to evaluate potential benefits of higher doses with respect to a previously proposed target concentration of 12 mcg/L (efficacy threshold). Results: Thirty-eight of 52 study subjects receiving nalbuphine had at least one concentration measurement and were included in the pharmacometric analysis. A two-compartment model with allometric scaling was applied to describe population PK data, with intranasal bioavailability estimated to be 41% (95%CI: 26-56%). Model-based simulations showed that the proposed efficacy threshold (12 mcg/L) is expected to be exceeded with an IV dose of 0.05 mg/kg for 6 min, with 0.1 mg/kg for 30 min and with 0.2 mg/kg for 80 min. This efficacy threshold is not achieved with intranasal doses of 0.1 and 0.2 mg/kg, whereas an intranasal dose of 0.4 mg/kg is expected to exceed such threshold for 30 to 100 min. Conclusion: This PMX study confirmed that bioavailability of intranasal nalbuphine is close to 50%. Exposure-pain response simulations indicated that an intranasal dose of 0.4 mg/kg is required to provide a comparable pain control as achieved with an IV dose of 0.1-0.2 mg/kg. The optimal time window for painful proc

Context Copeptin is the C-terminal fragment of the arginine vasopressin (AVP) prohormone whose measurement is more robust than that of AVP. Similar release and clearance characteristics have been suggested promoting copeptin as a surrogate marker. Objective To characterize the physiology of osmotically regulated copeptin release and its half-life in direct comparison with plasma AVP. Design Ninety-one healthy volunteers underwent a standardized three-phase test protocol including (1) osmotic stimulation into the hypertonic range by hypertonic-saline infusion followed by osmotic suppression via (2) oral water load and (3) subsequent glucose infusion. Plasma copeptin, AVP, serum sodium, and osmolality levels were measured in regular intervals. Results In phase 1, an increase in median osmotic pressure [289 (286; 291) to 311 (309; 314) mOsm/kg H2O] caused similar release kinetics of plasma copeptin [4 (3.1; 6) to 29.3 (18.6; 48.2) pmol/L] and AVP [1 (0.7; 1.6) to 10.3 (6.8; 18.8) pg/mL]. Subsequent osmotic suppression to 298 (295; 301) mOsm/kg at the end of phase 3 revealed markedly different decay kinetics between both peptides—an estimated initial half-life of copeptin being approximately 2 times longer than that of AVP (26 vs 12 minutes). Conclusion Copeptin is released in equimolar amounts with AVP in response to osmotic stimulation, suggesting its high potential as an AVP surrogate for differentiation of osmotic disorders. Furthermore, we here describe the decay kinetics of copeptin in response to osmotic depression enabling to identify a half-life for copeptin in direct comparison with AVP.

In this work, we study the problem of clustering survival data $-$ a challenging and so far under-explored task. We introduce a novel semi-supervised probabilistic approach to cluster survival data by leveraging recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference. In contrast to previous work, our proposed method employs a deep generative model to uncover the underlying distribution of both the explanatory variables and censored survival times. We compare our model to the related work on clustering and mixture models for survival data in comprehensive experiments on a wide range of synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world datasets, including medical imaging data. Our method performs better at identifying clusters and is competitive at predicting survival times. Relying on novel generative assumptions, the proposed model offers a holistic perspective on clustering survival data and holds a promise of discovering subpopulations whose survival is regulated by different generative mechanisms., Comment: ICLR 2022

Modeling of retrospectively collected multi-center data of a rare disease in pediatrics is challenging because laboratory data can stem from several decades measured with different assays. Here we present a retrospective pharmacometrics (PMX) based data analysis of the rare disease congenital hypothyroidism (CH) in newborns and infants. Our overall aim is to develop a model that can be applied to optimize dosing in this pediatric patient population since suboptimal treatment of CH during the first 2 years of life is associated with a reduced intelligence quotient between 10 and 14 years. The first goal is to describe a retrospectively collected dataset consisting of 61 newborns and infants with CH up to 2 years of age. Overall, 505 measurements of free thyroxine (FT4) and 510 measurements of thyrotropin or thyroid-stimulating hormone were available from patients receiving substitution treatment with levothyroxine (LT4). The second goal is to introduce a scale/location-scale normalization method to merge available FT4 measurements since 34 different postnatal age- and assay-specific laboratory reference ranges were applied. This method takes into account the change of the distribution of FT4 values over time, i.e. a transformation from right-skewed towards normality during LT4 treatment. The third goal is to develop a practical and useful PMX model for LT4 treatment to characterize FT4 measurements, which is applicable within a clinical setting. In summary, a time-dependent normalization method and a practical PMX model are presented. Since there is no on-going or planned development of new pharmacological approaches for CH, PMX based modeling and simulation can be leveraged to personalize dosing with the goal to enhance longer-term neurological outcome in children with the rare disease CH.

We present the case of a kidney transplant patient (Cockroft-Gault estimated creatinine clearance 14 ml/min) who was inadvertently eight-fold overdosed with a single dose of 500 mg intravenous ganciclovir. To prevent the immunosuppressed patient from being exposed to severe risks of prolonged ganciclovir overdosing, including potentially fatal bone marrow suppression and severe neurotoxicity, the patient was treated with hemodiafiltration (HDF) to enhance drug elimination. Since the product label reports a 50% decrease of ganciclovir plasma concentrations after intermittent hemodialysis (HD), two HDF sessions were considered necessary to achieve a ≥75% elimination of the drug by precaution, despite targeted intense HDF prescription. Ganciclovir plasma concentration data were obtained during both HDF sessions and were analyzed retrospectively. Pharmacokinetic analysis revealed that prescribed HDF successfully decreased drug plasma concentrations by ≥90%. This ganciclovir reduction ratio matched the urea reduction ratio achieved (≥92%). Model-based assessment of ganciclovir dialysis clearance (estimated to be 445 ml/min), accounting for its two-compartmental kinetics, was higher than urea dialysis clearance (estimated to be 310 ml/min). This suggests potential relevant accumulation of ganciclovir into blood cells, at least in this patient after overdosing. The amount (fraction) of drug removed by 1$^{st}$ HDF was estimated to 269 mg (93% of total amount of 288 mg eliminated during the 1$^{st}$ HDF session; estimated amount in the body prior to 1$^{st}$ HDF: 380 mg). A literature review was performed to summarize and systematically compare available information on ganciclovir elimination during intermittent renal replacement therapy. In conclusion, the high ganciclovir HDF clearance measured in our patient largely exceeded previously reported elimination during HD, meaning that HDF prescription was highly efficient in the present case, and that a second HDF session mig

Fabry disease is a rare X-linked lysosomal storage disorder caused by the absence or deficiency of the hydrolase alpha-galactosidase A activity. As a consequence, accumulation of globotriaosylceramide occurs in a wide variety of cells throughout the human body. Specific gene mutations determine disease severity and different phenotypes. Fabry disease is a multisystemic disease with nonspecific initial mani festations. Neuropathic pain and acroparaesthesia are one of the earliest symptoms, already reported in childhood or adolescence. Later signs and symptoms involve the heart, kidney and brain, resulting in life-threatening complications such as cardiac and renal failure as well as cerebral strokes. Early treatment initiation can ameliorate disease progression and potentially prevents long-term complications. Based on its diverse and nonspecific manifestation, it can take up to 15 years between the onset of the first symptoms and the final diagnosis of Fabry disease. Recognition of early symptoms, such as neuropathic pain and acroparaesthesia, and considering Fabry disease in young patients with stokes, is important. As such, neurologists may play a key role in early diagnosis of this disease.

J Ross Maclean1, Marc Pfister2,3, Zexun Zhou2, Amit Roy2, Vickie A Tuomari1, Michael Heifets11Department of Global Development and Medical Affairs, Bristol-Myers Squibb; 2Clinical Pharmacology & Pharmacometrics, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Princeton, NJ, USA; 3Quantitative Solutions, Bridgewater, NJ, USABackground and objectives: Nonadherence to oral immunosuppressive drugs in renal transplant patients remains a major challenge. The objective of this study was to develop an adherence-exposure model that 1) quantifies the impact of nonadherence patterns on cyclosporine levels and 2) identifies nonadherence patterns that are associated with unfavorable transplantation outcomes.Design, setting, participants, and measurements: This model quantified variability in drug exposure, expressed as the coefficient of variation (CV%), for time-averaged and trough cyclosporine levels (Cavg and Cmin, respectively), and percentage of days spent below the therapeutic Cmin target. Simulated patterns of nonadherence closely matched those observed in clinical practice for four nonadherence clusters and an "Others" category.Results: Patients in simulated nonadherence clusters 1–3 spent a mean (standard deviation) 5.8% (4.9), 9.0% (5.0), and 6.5% (3.4) of days below the Cmin target, compared with 76.8% (6.5) for cluster 4 and 38.3% (6.4) for the "Others" category. Mean (standard deviation) CV% values for Cmin were 24.1 (7.9), 35.4 (11.7), and 34.1 (10.6) for clusters 1–3, compared with 136.4 (23.6) for cluster 4 and 64.8 (10.3) for the "Others" category. Findings for Cavg were similar.Conclusion: Based on nonadherence patterns and known relationships between CV% for Cmin and Cavg, and transplantation outcomes, patients in cluster 4 and the "Others" category are expected to be at high risk of allograft rejection. The proposed drug adherence-exposure model is useful to identify high-risk patients

Context Copeptin is the C-terminal fragment of the arginine vasopressin (AVP) prohormone whose measurement is more robust than that of AVP. Similar release and clearance characteristics have been suggested promoting copeptin as a surrogate marker. Objective To characterize the physiology of osmotically regulated copeptin release and its half-life in direct comparison with plasma AVP. Design Ninety-one healthy volunteers underwent a standardized three-phase test protocol including (1) osmotic stimulation into the hypertonic range by hypertonic-saline infusion followed by osmotic suppression via (2) oral water load and (3) subsequent glucose infusion. Plasma copeptin, AVP, serum sodium, and osmolality levels were measured in regular intervals. Results In phase 1, an increase in median osmotic pressure [289 (286; 291) to 311 (309; 314) mOsm/kg H2O] caused similar release kinetics of plasma copeptin [4 (3.1; 6) to 29.3 (18.6; 48.2) pmol/L] and AVP [1 (0.7; 1.6) to 10.3 (6.8; 18.8) pg/mL]. Subsequent osmotic suppression to 298 (295; 301) mOsm/kg at the end of phase 3 revealed markedly different decay kinetics between both peptides—an estimated initial half-life of copeptin being approximately 2 times longer than that of AVP (26 vs 12 minutes). Conclusion Copeptin is released in equimolar amounts with AVP in response to osmotic stimulation, suggesting its high potential as an AVP surrogate for differentiation of osmotic disorders. Furthermore, we here describe the decay kinetics of copeptin in response to osmotic depression enabling to identify a half-life for copeptin in direct comparison with AVP.