1. Modeling ocean distributions and abundances of natural- and hatchery-origin Chinook salmon stocks with integrated genetic and tagging data
- Author
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Jensen, Alexander J, Jensen, Alexander J, Kelly, Ryan P, Satterthwaite, William H, Ward, Eric J, Moran, Paul, Shelton, Andrew Olaf, Jensen, Alexander J, Jensen, Alexander J, Kelly, Ryan P, Satterthwaite, William H, Ward, Eric J, Moran, Paul, and Shelton, Andrew Olaf
- Abstract
BackgroundConsiderable resources are spent to track fish movement in marine environments, often with the intent of estimating behavior, distribution, and abundance. Resulting data from these monitoring efforts, including tagging studies and genetic sampling, often can be siloed. For Pacific salmon in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, predominant data sources for fish monitoring are coded wire tags (CWTs) and genetic stock identification (GSI). Despite their complementary strengths and weaknesses in coverage and information content, the two data streams rarely have been integrated to inform Pacific salmon biology and management. Joint, or integrated, models can combine and contextualize multiple data sources in a single statistical framework to produce more robust estimates of fish populations.MethodsWe introduce and fit a comprehensive joint model that integrates data from CWT recoveries and GSI sampling to inform the marine life history of Chinook salmon stocks at spatial and temporal scales relevant to ongoing fisheries management efforts. In a departure from similar models based primarily on CWT recoveries, modeled stocks in the new framework encompass both hatchery- and natural-origin fish. We specifically model the spatial distribution and marine abundance of four distinct stocks with spawning locations in California and southern Oregon, one of which is listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.ResultsUsing the joint model, we generated the most comprehensive estimates of marine distribution to date for all modeled Chinook salmon stocks, including historically data poor and low abundance stocks. Estimated marine distributions from the joint model were broadly similar to estimates from a simpler, CWT-only model but did suggest some differences in distribution in select seasons. Model output also included novel stock-, year-, and season-specific estimates of marine abundance. We observed and partially addressed several challenges in model convergence with the use o
- Published
- 2023