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Tropical forests are recognized for their role in providing diverse ecosystem services (ESs), with carbon uptake the best recognized. The capacity of tropical forests to provide ESs is strongly linked to their enormous biodiversity. However, causal relationships between biodiversity and ESs are poorly understood. This may be because biodiversity is often translated into species richness. Here we argue that focusing on multiple attributes of biodiversity—structure, composition, and function—will make relationships between biodiversity and ESs clearer. In this review, we discuss the ecological processes behind ESs from tropical humid and subhumid forests of South America. Our main goal is to understand the links between the ESs and those three biodiversity attributes. While supporting and regulating services relate more closely to forest structure and function, provisioning services relate more closely to forest composition and function, and cultural services are more related to structure and composition attributes. In this sense, ESs from subhumid forests (savannas) differ from those provided by the Amazon Forest, although both ecosystems are recognized as harboring tremendous biodiversity. Given this, if anthropogenic drivers of change promote a shift in the Amazon Forest toward savanna—the savannization hypothesis—the types of services provided will change, especially climate regulating services. This review emphasizes the importance of deeply understanding ecosystem structure, composition, and function to better understand the services ecosystems provide. Understanding that anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity occur through these three main attributes, it becomes easier to anticipate how humans will impact ESs.

Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in the functioning of Earth but are under increasing threat from changes in land use and climate. How forest vulnerability varies across space and time and what level of stress forests can tolerate before facing a tipping point are poorly understood. Here, we develop a tropical forest vulnerability index (TFVI) to detect and evaluate the vulnerability of global tropical forests to threats across space and time. We show that climate change together with land-use change have slowed the recovery rate of forest carbon cycling. Temporal autocorrelation, as an indicator of this slow recovery, increases substantially for above-ground biomass, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration when climate stress reaches a critical level. Forests in the Americas exhibit extensive vulnerability to these stressors, while in Africa, forests show relative resilience to climate, and in Asia reveal more vulnerability to land use and fragmentation. TFVI can systematically track the response of tropical forests to multiple stressors and provide early-warning signals for regions undergoing critical transitions.

Humid tropical forests play a dominant role in the functioning of Earth but are under increasing threat from changes in land use and climate. How forest vulnerability varies across space and time and what level of stress forests can tolerate before facing a tipping point are poorly understood. Here, we develop a tropical forest vulnerability index (TFVI) to detect and evaluate the vulnerability of global tropical forests to threats across space and time. We show that climate change together with land-use change have slowed the recovery rate of forest carbon cycling. Temporal autocorrelation, as an indicator of this slow recovery, increases substantially for above-ground biomass, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration when climate stress reaches a critical level. Forests in the Americas exhibit extensive vulnerability to these stressors, while in Africa, forests show relative resilience to climate, and in Asia reveal more vulnerability to land use and fragmentation. TFVI can systematically track the response of tropical forests to multiple stressors and provide early-warning signals for regions undergoing critical transitions.

A circular bioeconomy offers a conceptual framework for using renewable natural capital to holistically transform and manage our land, food, health and industrial systems with the goal of achieving sustainable wellbeing in harmony with nature.

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil-free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity’s remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth-system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil-free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity’s remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth-system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emission reductions and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink within 40 years. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil-free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth-system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emission reductions and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink within 40 years. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil-free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth-system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.

O regime de chuvas da bacia amazônica é fortemente influenciado pela variação das temperaturas de superfície (TSM) do Atlântico e do Pacífico, por meio das circulações atmosféricas de grande escala (Marengo, 1992; Ronchail et al., 2002; entre outros). A área da bacia sujeita a mudanças no regime de chuvas varia em função da região oceânica que apresentou anomalia de temperaturas. Historicamente, os eventos de El Niño (aquecimento anômalo de algumas regiões do Pacífico tropical) têm influenciado as chuvas nas porções centrais e leste da Amazônia. Os eventos AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), associados ao aquecimento anômalo das temperaturas de superfície do Atlântico tropical norte têm exercido maior influência sobre as chuvas das porções oeste, sudoeste e sul da Amazônia. Esses eventos não são raros, ocorrem com frequência na região, e se configuram como sendo uma característica das condições climáticas prevalecentes na bacia amazônica., isbn: 8579750784, Pages: 305-337

O regime de chuvas da bacia amazônica é fortemente influenciado pela variação das temperaturas de superfície (TSM) do Atlântico e do Pacífico, por meio das circulações atmosféricas de grande escala (Marengo, 1992; Ronchail et al., 2002; entre outros). A área da bacia sujeita a mudanças no regime de chuvas varia em função da região oceânica que apresentou anomalia de temperaturas. Historicamente, os eventos de El Niño (aquecimento anômalo de algumas regiões do Pacífico tropical) têm influenciado as chuvas nas porções centrais e leste da Amazônia. Os eventos AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), associados ao aquecimento anômalo das temperaturas de superfície do Atlântico tropical norte têm exercido maior influência sobre as chuvas das porções oeste, sudoeste e sul da Amazônia. Esses eventos não são raros, ocorrem com frequência na região, e se configuram como sendo uma característica das condições climáticas prevalecentes na bacia amazônica., Pages: 305-337

O regime de chuvas da bacia amazônica é fortemente influenciado pela variação das temperaturas de superfície (TSM) do Atlântico e do Pacífico, por meio das circulações atmosféricas de grande escala (Marengo, 1992; Ronchail et al., 2002; entre outros). A área da bacia sujeita a mudanças no regime de chuvas varia em função da região oceânica que apresentou anomalia de temperaturas. Historicamente, os eventos de El Niño (aquecimento anômalo de algumas regiões do Pacífico tropical) têm influenciado as chuvas nas porções centrais e leste da Amazônia. Os eventos AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), associados ao aquecimento anômalo das temperaturas de superfície do Atlântico tropical norte têm exercido maior influência sobre as chuvas das porções oeste, sudoeste e sul da Amazônia. Esses eventos não são raros, ocorrem com frequência na região, e se configuram como sendo uma característica das condições climáticas prevalecentes na bacia amazônica., Pages: 305-337

O regime de chuvas da bacia amazônica é fortemente influenciado pela variação das temperaturas de superfície (TSM) do Atlântico e do Pacífico, por meio das circulações atmosféricas de grande escala (Marengo, 1992; Ronchail et al., 2002; entre outros). A área da bacia sujeita a mudanças no regime de chuvas varia em função da região oceânica que apresentou anomalia de temperaturas. Historicamente, os eventos de El Niño (aquecimento anômalo de algumas regiões do Pacífico tropical) têm influenciado as chuvas nas porções centrais e leste da Amazônia. Os eventos AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), associados ao aquecimento anômalo das temperaturas de superfície do Atlântico tropical norte têm exercido maior influência sobre as chuvas das porções oeste, sudoeste e sul da Amazônia. Esses eventos não são raros, ocorrem com frequência na região, e se configuram como sendo uma característica das condições climáticas prevalecentes na bacia amazônica., isbn: 8579750784, Pages: 305-337

O regime de chuvas da bacia amazônica é fortemente influenciado pela variação das temperaturas de superfície (TSM) do Atlântico e do Pacífico, por meio das circulações atmosféricas de grande escala (Marengo, 1992; Ronchail et al., 2002; entre outros). A área da bacia sujeita a mudanças no regime de chuvas varia em função da região oceânica que apresentou anomalia de temperaturas. Historicamente, os eventos de El Niño (aquecimento anômalo de algumas regiões do Pacífico tropical) têm influenciado as chuvas nas porções centrais e leste da Amazônia. Os eventos AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), associados ao aquecimento anômalo das temperaturas de superfície do Atlântico tropical norte têm exercido maior influência sobre as chuvas das porções oeste, sudoeste e sul da Amazônia. Esses eventos não são raros, ocorrem com frequência na região, e se configuram como sendo uma característica das condições climáticas prevalecentes na bacia amazônica., isbn: 8579750784, Pages: 305-337

O regime de chuvas da bacia amazônica é fortemente influenciado pela variação das temperaturas de superfície (TSM) do Atlântico e do Pacífico, por meio das circulações atmosféricas de grande escala (Marengo, 1992; Ronchail et al., 2002; entre outros). A área da bacia sujeita a mudanças no regime de chuvas varia em função da região oceânica que apresentou anomalia de temperaturas. Historicamente, os eventos de El Niño (aquecimento anômalo de algumas regiões do Pacífico tropical) têm influenciado as chuvas nas porções centrais e leste da Amazônia. Os eventos AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), associados ao aquecimento anômalo das temperaturas de superfície do Atlântico tropical norte têm exercido maior influência sobre as chuvas das porções oeste, sudoeste e sul da Amazônia. Esses eventos não são raros, ocorrem com frequência na região, e se configuram como sendo uma característica das condições climáticas prevalecentes na bacia amazônica., isbn: 8579750784, Pages: 305-337

O regime de chuvas da bacia amazônica é fortemente influenciado pela variação das temperaturas de superfície (TSM) do Atlântico e do Pacífico, por meio das circulações atmosféricas de grande escala (Marengo, 1992; Ronchail et al., 2002; entre outros). A área da bacia sujeita a mudanças no regime de chuvas varia em função da região oceânica que apresentou anomalia de temperaturas. Historicamente, os eventos de El Niño (aquecimento anômalo de algumas regiões do Pacífico tropical) têm influenciado as chuvas nas porções centrais e leste da Amazônia. Os eventos AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), associados ao aquecimento anômalo das temperaturas de superfície do Atlântico tropical norte têm exercido maior influência sobre as chuvas das porções oeste, sudoeste e sul da Amazônia. Esses eventos não são raros, ocorrem com frequência na região, e se configuram como sendo uma característica das condições climáticas prevalecentes na bacia amazônica., isbn: 8579750784, Pages: 305-337

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An international collaboration of scientists and researchers is embarking on AMAZALERT – an ambitious project which is investigating critical feedbacks between climate and long-term land use change in the Amazon. Drs Bart Kruijt and Carlos Nobre are the coordinators and were interviewed for an article in the International Innovation Journal. International Innovation is the leading global dissemination resource for the wider scientific, technology and research communities, dedicated to disseminating the latest science, research and technological innovations on a global level.

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Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Warming in Amazonia and observed climate Trens Brief evolution of modeling of climate change in Amazonia: Deforestation and experiments on climate change and Amazonian deforestation Model projections of climate change in the Amazon basin from IPCC AR4 global models Projections of change in hydrology and moisture transport in and out of Amazonia A combination of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use changes in Amazonia as forcings for climate change Experiences on climate change projections from regional models in Amazonia Uncertainty assessments Dangerous climate change in Amazonia as projected by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre model Effects of aerosols in the projections of future drought events in Amazonia Extreme events in the context of climate change: Is the drought of Amazonia in 2005 an indicator of how extremes will be in a warmer climate? Impacts of changes in climate and hydrology in water resources in Amazonia., isbn: 9780875904764 9781118670347, Pages: 273–292

Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Warming in Amazonia and observed climate Trens Brief evolution of modeling of climate change in Amazonia: Deforestation and experiments on climate change and Amazonian deforestation Model projections of climate change in the Amazon basin from IPCC AR4 global models Projections of change in hydrology and moisture transport in and out of Amazonia A combination of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use changes in Amazonia as forcings for climate change Experiences on climate change projections from regional models in Amazonia Uncertainty assessments Dangerous climate change in Amazonia as projected by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre model Effects of aerosols in the projections of future drought events in Amazonia Extreme events in the context of climate change: Is the drought of Amazonia in 2005 an indicator of how extremes will be in a warmer climate? Impacts of changes in climate and hydrology in water resources in Amazonia., Pages: 273–292

Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Warming in Amazonia and observed climate Trens Brief evolution of modeling of climate change in Amazonia: Deforestation and experiments on climate change and Amazonian deforestation Model projections of climate change in the Amazon basin from IPCC AR4 global models Projections of change in hydrology and moisture transport in and out of Amazonia A combination of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use changes in Amazonia as forcings for climate change Experiences on climate change projections from regional models in Amazonia Uncertainty assessments Dangerous climate change in Amazonia as projected by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre model Effects of aerosols in the projections of future drought events in Amazonia Extreme events in the context of climate change: Is the drought of Amazonia in 2005 an indicator of how extremes will be in a warmer climate? Impacts of changes in climate and hydrology in water resources in Amazonia., Pages: 273–292

Global and regional climate models, such as those used in IPCC assessments, are the best tools available for climate predictions. Such models typically account for large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, these models omit local vegetationenvironment 5 feedbacks that are crucial for critical transitions in ecosystems. Here, we reveal the hypothesis that, if the balance of feedbacks is positive at all scales, local vegetation-environment feedbacks may trigger a cascade of amplifying effects, propagating from local to large scale, possibly leading to critical transitions in the largescale climate. We call for linking local ecosystem feedbacks with large-scale land10 atmosphere feedbacks in global and regional climate models in order to yield climate predictions that we are more confident about.

Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Warming in Amazonia and observed climate Trens Brief evolution of modeling of climate change in Amazonia: Deforestation and experiments on climate change and Amazonian deforestation Model projections of climate change in the Amazon basin from IPCC AR4 global models Projections of change in hydrology and moisture transport in and out of Amazonia A combination of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use changes in Amazonia as forcings for climate change Experiences on climate change projections from regional models in Amazonia Uncertainty assessments Dangerous climate change in Amazonia as projected by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre model Effects of aerosols in the projections of future drought events in Amazonia Extreme events in the context of climate change: Is the drought of Amazonia in 2005 an indicator of how extremes will be in a warmer climate? Impacts of changes in climate and hydrology in water resources in Amazonia., isbn: 9780875904764 9781118670347, Pages: 273–292

Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Warming in Amazonia and observed climate Trens Brief evolution of modeling of climate change in Amazonia: Deforestation and experiments on climate change and Amazonian deforestation Model projections of climate change in the Amazon basin from IPCC AR4 global models Projections of change in hydrology and moisture transport in and out of Amazonia A combination of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use changes in Amazonia as forcings for climate change Experiences on climate change projections from regional models in Amazonia Uncertainty assessments Dangerous climate change in Amazonia as projected by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre model Effects of aerosols in the projections of future drought events in Amazonia Extreme events in the context of climate change: Is the drought of Amazonia in 2005 an indicator of how extremes will be in a warmer climate? Impacts of changes in climate and hydrology in water resources in Amazonia., isbn: 9780875904764 9781118670347, Pages: 273–292

Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Warming in Amazonia and observed climate Trens Brief evolution of modeling of climate change in Amazonia: Deforestation and experiments on climate change and Amazonian deforestation Model projections of climate change in the Amazon basin from IPCC AR4 global models Projections of change in hydrology and moisture transport in and out of Amazonia A combination of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use changes in Amazonia as forcings for climate change Experiences on climate change projections from regional models in Amazonia Uncertainty assessments Dangerous climate change in Amazonia as projected by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre model Effects of aerosols in the projections of future drought events in Amazonia Extreme events in the context of climate change: Is the drought of Amazonia in 2005 an indicator of how extremes will be in a warmer climate? Impacts of changes in climate and hydrology in water resources in Amazonia., isbn: 9780875904764 9781118670347, Pages: 273–292

Summary This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Warming in Amazonia and observed climate Trens Brief evolution of modeling of climate change in Amazonia: Deforestation and experiments on climate change and Amazonian deforestation Model projections of climate change in the Amazon basin from IPCC AR4 global models Projections of change in hydrology and moisture transport in and out of Amazonia A combination of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and land use changes in Amazonia as forcings for climate change Experiences on climate change projections from regional models in Amazonia Uncertainty assessments Dangerous climate change in Amazonia as projected by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre model Effects of aerosols in the projections of future drought events in Amazonia Extreme events in the context of climate change: Is the drought of Amazonia in 2005 an indicator of how extremes will be in a warmer climate? Impacts of changes in climate and hydrology in water resources in Amazonia., isbn: 9780875904764 9781118670347, Pages: 273–292

This study explores the role of vegetation biophysical processes (VBPs) in the structure and evolution of the South American monsoon system (SAMS) with an emphasis on the precipitation field. T e approach is based on comparing ensemble simulations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction general circulation model (GCM) in which the land surface parameterization in one ensemble includes an explicit representation of vegetation processes in the calculation of surface fluxes while the other does not [GCM/Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB) and GCM/Soil, respectively], but with similar monthly mean surface albedo and initial soil moisture. The ensembles consist of five pairs of 1-yr integrations differing in the initial conditions for the atmosphere. The results show that, during the austral summer, consideration of explicit vegetation processes does not alter the monthly mean precipitation at the planetary scale. However, at continental scales, GCM/SSiB produces a more successful simulation of SAMS than GCM/Soil. The improvement is particularly clear in reference to the seasonal southward displacement of precipitation during the onset of the SAMS and its northward merging with the intertropical convergence zone during the monsoon mature stage, as well as better monthly mean austral summer precipitation over the South American continent. The changes in surface water and energy balances and circulation in October (monsoon onset) and December (the start of the monsoon mature stage) were analyzed for a better understanding of the results and mechanisms involved. It was found that the major difference between the simulations is in the partitioning of latent heat and sensible heat fluxes (i.e., different Bowen ratio), which produced different latitudinal and longitudinal thermal gradients at the surface. A stronger sensible heat flux gradient between continent and ocean in the GCM/SSiB simulation helped generate an enhanced ventilation effect, which lowered

This study explores the role of vegetation biophysical processes (VBPs) in the structure and evolution of the South American monsoon system (SAMS) with an emphasis on the precipitation field. T e approach is based on comparing ensemble simulations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction general circulation model (GCM) in which the land surface parameterization in one ensemble includes an explicit representation of vegetation processes in the calculation of surface fluxes while the other does not [GCM/Simplified Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB) and GCM/Soil, respectively], but with similar monthly mean surface albedo and initial soil moisture. The ensembles consist of five pairs of 1-yr integrations differing in the initial conditions for the atmosphere. The results show that, during the austral summer, consideration of explicit vegetation processes does not alter the monthly mean precipitation at the planetary scale. However, at continental scales, GCM/SSiB produces a more successful simulation of SAMS than GCM/Soil. The improvement is particularly clear in reference to the seasonal southward displacement of precipitation during the onset of the SAMS and its northward merging with the intertropical convergence zone during the monsoon mature stage, as well as better monthly mean austral summer precipitation over the South American continent. The changes in surface water and energy balances and circulation in October (monsoon onset) and December (the start of the monsoon mature stage) were analyzed for a better understanding of the results and mechanisms involved. It was found that the major difference between the simulations is in the partitioning of latent heat and sensible heat fluxes (i.e., different Bowen ratio), which produced different latitudinal and longitudinal thermal gradients at the surface. A stronger sensible heat flux gradient between continent and ocean in the GCM/SSiB simulation helped generate an enhanced ventilation effect, which lowered

Rainfall in West Africa is often typified as being subject to large inter-annual variability. For the Volta Basin, this variability is actually not very large. The coefficient of variation for rainfall is only 0.08 (1931-1995) with an average of 400 km3 year-1. Yet, a much higher coefficient of variation of 0.38 (1931-1995) is found for runoff with an average of 43 km3 year-1. The basin shows a nonlinear response that amplifies small changes in rainfall into large changes in runoff. A simple runoff model for the Volta Basin was formulated with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 72%. This model implies that once rainfall exceeds a threshold of 342 km3 year-1, more than 50% of the exceedence runs off. This threshold behaviour makes the water resources of the Volta Basin highly sensitive to both climatic variability and anthropogenic impacts. First, the impact of climate variability is quantified. Subsequently, development of the storage capacity of the Basin is evaluated on the basis of the water balance over the period 1966-1995 with an adapted Thornthwaite-Mather model. Results show that there is no change in hydrological behaviour of the basin that could be attributed to human impact. This lack of a clear anthropogenic signal can partially be explained by two contrary developments, increase in surface water storage in reservoirs and decrease in soil moisture storage due to soil and vegetation decline.

The biogeochemical cycling of carbon, water, energy, aerosols, and trace gases in the Amazon Basin was investigated in the project European Studies on Trace Gases and Atmospheric Chemistry as a Contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA-EUSTACH). We present an overview of the design of the project, the measurement sites and methods, and the meteorological conditions during the experiment. The main results from LBA-EUSTACH are: Eddy correlation studies in three regions of the Amazon Basin consistently show a large net carbon sink in the undisturbed rain forest. Nitrogen emitted by forest soils is subject to chemical cycling within the canopy space, which results in re-uptake of a large fraction of soil-derived NOx by the vegetation. The forest vegetation is both a sink and a source of volatile organic compounds, with net deposition being particularly important for partially oxidized organics. Concentrations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are highly seasonal, with a pronounced maximum in the dry (burning) season. High CCN concentrations from biomass burning have a pronounced impact on cloud microphysics, rainfall production mechanisms, and probably on large-scale climate dynamics.

This paper presents an overview of the results from the first major mesoscale atmospheric campaign of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) Program. The campaign, collocated with a Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite validation campaigns, was conducted in southwest Rondônia in January and February 1999 during the wet season. Highlights on the interaction between clouds, rain, and the underlying landscape through biospheric processes are presented and discussed.