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How are insurgents able to mobilize the population to fight and withhold valuable information from government forces? More specifically, what role does government mistreatment of non-combatants play? We study these questions by using uniquely-detailed micro-data from Afghanistan and Iraq to assess the impact of civilian casualties on insurgent violence. By comparing the data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we are able to distinguish short-run "information" and "capacity" effects from the longer run "recruiting" and "revenge" effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence for a revenge effect in that local exposure to ISAF generated civilian casualties drives increased insurgent violence over the long-run. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 6 additional violent incidents in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks. There is no evidence of short run effects in Afghanistan, thus ruling out the information and the capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting insurgents' mobilizing tools may be quite conflict-specific. Our results show that if counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan wish to minimize insurgent recruitment, they must minimize harm to civilians despite the greater risk this entails., Prepared in cooperation with Stanford University, CA; London School of Economics, UK; and Princeton University, NJ.

This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging that will require major fiscal adjustments. But the aging of these societies may be a cloud with a silver lining coming, in this case, in the form of capital deepening that will raise real wages. China eventually becomes the world’s saver and, thereby, the developed world’s savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth percent by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100. Even if the Chinese saving behavior gradually approaches that of Americans, developed world real wages per unit of human capital are roughly 17 percent higher in 2030 and 4 percent higher at the end of the century. Without China they’d be only 2 percent higher in 2030 and 4 percent lower at Century’s end. The short-run outflow of capital to China is met with a commensurate short-run reduction in developed world labor supply, leaving the short-run ratio of physical capital to human capital, on which wages positively depend, actually somewhat higher than would otherwise be the case. On the other hand, our findings about the developed world’s fiscal condition are quite troubling. Even under the most favorable macroeconomic scenario, tax rates will rise dramatically over time in the developed world to pay baby boomers their governmentpromised pension and health benefits. As Argentina has so recently shown, countries can grow quite well for years even with unsustainable fiscal policies. But if they wait too long to address those policies, the financial markets will do it for them, with often quite ruinous consequences.

We compile the list of articles published in major refereed economics journals during the last 35 years that have received more than 500 citations. We document major shifts in the mode of contribution and in the importance of different sub-fields: Theory loses out to empirical work, and micro and macro give way to growth and development in the 1990s. While we do not witness any decline in the primacy of production in the United States over the period, the concentration of institutions within the U.S. hosting and training authors of the highly-cited articles has declined substantially.

We study the location-specific component in research productivity of economics and finance faculty who have ever been affiliated with the top 25 universities in the last three decades. We find that there was a positive effect of being affiliated with an elite university in the 1970s; this effect weakened in the 1980s and disappeared in the 1990s. We decompose this university fixed effect and find that its decline is due to the reduced importance of physical access to productive research colleagues. We also find that salaries increased the most where the estimated externality dropped the most, consistent with the hypothesis that the de-localization of this externality makes it more difficult for universities to appropriate any rent. Our results shed some light on the potential effects of the internet revolution on knowledge-based industries.

The goal of this project was to (1) assess the validity of medical claims information for tracking breast cancer diagnoses, treatments, and outcomes; (2) use Medicare data, linked SEER cancer registry data, and claims data from large firms to analyze trends in diagnosis rates and staging, treatment, expenditures, and outcomes for Americans with breast cancer; and (3) analyze the cost effectiveness of alternative patterns of breast cancer diagnosis and treatment. The first part of Section B reviews the work done on creating cohorts of breast cancer patients and assessing the validity of the selection procedure. The second part discusses our findings on trends in breast cancer costs, treatments, and outcomes with a particular emphasis on changes in the productivity of breast cancer care. The third part reviews our work on measuring the cost effectiveness of alternative patterns of diagnosis and treatment, and introduces some innovative statistical methods we developed to help address the problem of bias. The conclusion section reviews the main findings and describes the areas for future research identified by this project.

The goal of this project is to (1) assess the validity of medical claims information for tracking breast cancer diagnoses, treatments, and outcomes; (2) use Medicare data, linked SEER cancer registry data, and claims data from large firms to analyze trends in diagnosis rates and staging, treatment, expenditures, and outcomes for Americans with breast cancer; and (3) analyze the cost effectiveness of alternative patterns of breast cancer diagnosis and treatment. A principal cause of the limited evidence on trends and cost-effectiveness of cancer care for the elderly is the absence of precise information on the utility of medical claims databases for understanding cancer epidemiology, treatments, costs, and outcomes in large, representative population groups. To date, the project has made substantial progress in (1) constructing a set of rules for identifying cancer cases in administrative data with much higher sensitivity and specificity estimates and more accurate time of diagnosis estimates than previously reported; and (2) demonstrating the feasibility on breast cancer of an important methodological step (instrumental variables) necessary for attributing differences in outcomes to treatment differences.

Little is known about the relationships between breast cancer treatments, costs, and outcomes across different population groups, health care delivery settings, and geographic areas. As a result of this uncertainty the cost effectiveness of different patterns of breast cancer prevention and treatment across such groups, appropriate policies for breast cancer are unclear. This research will develop evidence on these issues using a combination of very large, unique databases that integrate longitudinal information on individual treatments, costs, and outcomes and that have been linked to supplementary datasets with far more clinical detail. We will characterize variations and trends across different demographic and socioeconomic groups in all phases of breast cancer screening and treatment. We will investigate variations and trends for different measures of inpatient and outpatient costs, and different measures of patient outcomes. The resulting empirical cost-effectiveness estimates of alternative approaches to breast cancer treatment can be used to evaluate technologies used for breast cancer treatment and to guide policies affecting breast cancer management.

The objective of the report is to present findings of a study designed to contribute to the understanding of some changes in the cost and quality of water on technological changes in process design and plant location decisions. The study concludes that water is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for continued growth in water-using industries. Geographic patterns of industry location appear to be shifting toward areas more favorably endowed with water resources. Regional and temporal variations in the recirculation of water are also documented. The findings suggest that water for industrial processing is unlikely to be a major location determinant; rather, water for transportation may be a more important location determinant.

•·. •., AD / A-003 264 N GING WATER USE IN SELECTED MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1-------•~'cn:,er t A. Leone, et al National Bureau of Economic Research Washington, D. C. October 1974 DISTRIBUTED BY: National Technical Information Service U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield Va. 22151 This document has been approved for public release and sale. I 1 · I I • UNCLASSIFIED REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE aU:OJ:.a.~~~- I 1. -~v" • MUM•- r GOVT ACeHIION NO 1/} /4 . · . •1 . 1-._-rw..,.,,:.,,..-;-,':-N--:-:-.~-.. ~--.,-c_T_R_E_P_o_R_t _· _1_•_-_1 o__._ _____ 4 (1/flz-OdJ)~ / ~v-~"•V -' CHANGING WATER USE IN SELECTEP MAN_. _UFACTU. RING :INDUSTRIES ( 7---"",__J_.1,.c/...,. -1. • bF.,,.ina~l:=-,,.-,=--=-----' ., .-. _, &, 1'.CR~OblNO Of'G; flla~OflT NUIIIIUI J,,,-1:-UTMOlll(•J RoheTt A. ,If! ._ Leone; J. Royce Ginn~ An-Loh i,in _ .. . _. '"• - I; I . ~R•F'O"IUtfG OflOAtUIATtOtl NMIIE MIO AOOftE.U f National Bureau ol Economic Reeearch ~;.•hington'. D. C. · ~ DACW31-7Z-C~0044 It. CON:TMH. .. LIMG O"l'ICE NAM• AWO •oott11n. :JI. QR""°C· to. RbTeOr/i_T.Ja 9 __ 7 ... ~ d :_ US Army Engineer In1titute for WMer-- Reaour_c es IT .. v Kln1man Building •' .. - . . i-,.,,,,..._ ..,N""u"'•"'n"'11"""0"~.; • .,• .,,_=.-. .,___~~-• .. -, -,I Fort Belvoir Va. 2.2060 · 16J)·_ ·,· · · · UNCLASSIFIED Approved for public r~lease; dietrlbution unlimited. ' ' . i . NATIONM n<:HNICAL . • i . INFORMATION SERVICE ·i · · us 1 D• , ., ,;t c;;;- · 1 •• te:tY WOl'OI (...__.,. .,...,. .. ••• ,,.,_..__,,.._. UIMcff), Ip.,_......._, lndustria.1 water;. industr{a l location; water quality: industrial wate.r coat: _,indUBtl"iU water u1e; urban water. •\IP:PlY : · · · PIKES SUIIEO TO GW.'t} . - ID. A-ffl-CT-~•,_....,_,.., .. ,..,.,._,,_,.,...,,.,..,.,_......,)· .. .. . . . . . . -The objective-of thie report Is to pre■.ent finding• of a study _de ■igned to_ contribute to the understanding of some chant1e• ln the_ coat and quality ol water on·technologlcal changes ln 'proceu de11i1n a!'d plan