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A new meteor shower $\lambda$-Sculptorids produced by the comet 46P/Wirtanen was forecast for December 12, 2023. The predicted activity was highly uncertain, but generally considered to be low. Observations in Australia, New Zealand, and Oceania were solicited to help constrain the size distribution of meteoroids in the shower. This work aims to characterize the new meteor shower, by comparing the observed and predicted radiants and orbits, and to provide a calibration for future predictions. Global Meteor Network video cameras were used to observe the meteor shower. Multi-station observations were used to compute trajectories and orbits, while single-station observations were used to measure the flux profile. A total of 23 $\lambda$-Sculptorid orbits have been measured. The shower peaked at a zenithal hourly rate (ZHR) of $0.65^{+0.24}_{-0.20}$ meteors per hour at $\lambda_{\odot} = 259.988^{\circ} \pm 0.042^{\circ}$. Due to the low in-atmosphere speed of 15~km s$^{-1}$, the mean mass of observed meteoroids was 0.5~g ($\sim10$~mm diameter), an order of magnitude higher than predicted. The dynamical simulations of the meteoroid stream can only produce such large meteoroids arriving at Earth in 2023 with correct radiants when a very low meteoroid density of $\sim 100$~kg~m$^{-3}$ is assumed. However, this assumption cannot reproduce the activity profile. It may be reproduced by considering higher density meteoroids in a larger ecliptic plane-crossing time window ($\Delta T$ = 20 days) and trails ejected prior to 1908, but then the observed radiant structure is not reproduced., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A

This paper presents the main results of COST Action PEARL PV, aiming at finding connections between the observed performance of monitored PV systems and degradation causes and failure modes according to literature with a focus on the most dominant technology among installed PV modules, namely silicon PV. It is found that there there exists a great potential for performance improvements, though in practice it is difficult to identify exact causes for failure and underperformance.

Aim: Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe. Location: Global. Time period: Present. Major taxa studied: Birds, mammals and amphibians. Methods: Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a “species–energy model” by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in “wilderness” areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists. Results: Species–energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R2-values: 0.79–0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57). Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species–area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity l

Land use change, as a result of many local-scale decisions scaling up to large spatial extents, is considered the main threat to European butterflies. The impact of large-scale pressures, such as atmospheric nitrogen deposition or climate change, is less understood or less documented, respectively. However, it is acknowledged that they might reinforce the pressure on already threatened species. To evaluate the additional threat exerted by these pressures we compared their geographical pattern to those of threatened butterflies across Europe. We therefore derived range maps of 383 butterfly species and used two species-specific threat assessments derived from national and European Red Lists. We then used Spearman rank-correlations and beta-regressions to compare two metrics of species threat per 10 × 10 km raster cells with geographical patterns of cumulative nitrogen depositions from 1980 to 2015, as well as the magnitude of change in precipitation sums and temperature means between the decades 1979–1988 and 2004–2013. We found that threatened species tend to concentrate in areas with high nitrogen depositions and pronounced summer temperature changes. In particular, parts of central and eastern Europe were both hotspots of threatened butterflies and hotspots of climatic pressure. This spatial coincidence of the distribution of threatened butterfly species with large-scale patterns of nitrogen depositions and recent climate warming indicates an already considerable risk of regional to continental extinctions that will likely increase further in the future as climate change will most likely intensify. Consequences for area-based conservation measures are discussed. &nbsp

Aim: Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe. Location: Global. Time period: Present. Major taxa studied: Birds, mammals and amphibians. Methods: Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a “species–energy model” by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in “wilderness” areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists. Results: Species–energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R2-values: 0.79–0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57). Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species–area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity l

Aim: Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe. Location: Global. Time period: Present. Major taxa studied: Birds, mammals and amphibians. Methods: Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a “species–energy model” by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in “wilderness” areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists. Results: Species–energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R2-values: 0.79–0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57). Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species–area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity l

Aim: Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe. Location: Global. Time period: Present. Major taxa studied: Birds, mammals and amphibians. Methods: Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a “species–energy model” by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in “wilderness” areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists. Results: Species–energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R2-values: 0.79–0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57). Main conclusions: Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species–area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity l

The Golden (British Columbia, Canada) meteorite fall occurred on Oct 4, 2021 at 0534 UT with the first recovered fragment (1.3 kg) landing on an occupied bed. The meteorite is an unbrecciated, low-shock (S2) ordinary chondrite of intermediate composition, typed as an L/LL5. From noble gas measurements the cosmic ray exposure age is 25 Ma while gas retention ages are all >2 Ga. Short-lived radionuclides and noble gas measurements of the pre-atmospheric size overlap with estimates from infrasound and lightcurve modelling producing a preferred pre-atmospheric mass of 70-200 kg. The orbit of Golden has a high inclination (23.5 degs) and is consistent with delivery from the inner main belt. The highest probability (60%) of an origin is from the Hungaria group. We propose that Golden may originate among the background S-type asteroids found interspersed in the Hungaria region. The current collection of 18 L and LL chondrite orbits shows a strong preference for origins in the inner main belt, suggesting multiple parent bodies may be required to explain the diversity in CRE ages and shock states., Comment: 92 Pages, 20 Tables, 21 Figures, plus 3 appendices, accepted in Meteoritics and Planetary Science Oct 26 2023

BackgroundPatients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) with symptoms matching their expectations of a heart attack are more likely to use emergency medical services (EMS) than not.ObjectiveTo determine whether presenting symptom clusters are associated with EMS use in ACS patients and if EMS use or symptom clusters are associated with prehospital delay.MethodsThis secondary analysis used data from the PROMOTION trial, a randomized clinical trial that enrolled 3522 subjects with a history of or at risk for ACS from 5 sites in the United States, Australia, and New Zealand. Subjects were randomized to usual care or an educational intervention to reduce prehospital delay. During the 2-year follow-up, subjects admitted for ACS were asked about symptoms, time of symptom onset, and mode of transportation to the hospital. Symptoms were grouped into classic ACS, pain symptoms, and stress symptoms clusters.ResultsOf 3522 subjects enrolled, 331 sought care for ACS during follow-up; 278 had transportation mode documented; 121 (44%) arrived via EMS. Classic ACS plus pain symptoms (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.66; P = .011), classic ACS plus stress symptoms (AOR, 2.61; P = .007), and classic ACS plus both pain and stress symptoms (AOR, 3.90; P = .012) were associated with higher odds of EMS use versus classic ACS symptoms alone. Emergency medical services use resulted in a 68.5-minute shorter median delay (P = .002) versus non-EMS use. Symptom clusters were not predictive of delay time in the adjusted model (P = .952).DiscussionAlthough chest symptoms were the most prevalent symptoms for most (85%), the combination of classic ACS symptoms with other symptom clusters was associated with higher EMS use. Further research is needed to determine whether a combination of symptom clusters helps patients correctly interpret ACS symptoms to better understand how symptom clusters influence EMS use.

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a serious mental health condition thought to be mediated by a dysregulated stress response system. Stress, especially chronic stress, affects mitochondrial activity and their efficiency in duplicating their genomes. Human cells contain numerous mitochondria that harbor multiple copies of their own genome, which consist of a mixture of wild type and variant mtDNA - a condition known as mitochondrial heteroplasmy. Number of mitochondrial genomes in a cell and the degree of heteroplasmy may serve as an indicator of mitochondrial allostatic load. Changes in mtDNA copy number and the proportion of variant mtDNA may be related to mental disorders and symptom severity, suggesting an involvement of mitochondrial dysfunction also in PTSD. Therefore, we examined number and composition of mitochondrial DNA before and after six weeks of inpatient psychotherapy treatment in a cohort of 60 female PTSD patients. We extracted DNA from isolated monocytes before and after inpatient treatment and quantified cellular mtDNA using multiplex qPCR. We hypothesized that treatment would lead to changes in cellular mtDNA levels and that change in mtDNA level would be associated with PTSD symptom severity and treatment response. It could be shown that mtDNA copy number and the ratio of variant mtDNA decreased during therapy, however, this change did not correlate with treatment response. Our results suggest that inpatient treatment can reduce signs of mitochondrial allostatic load, which could have beneficial effects on mental health. The quantification of mtDNA and the determination of cellular heteroplasmy could represent valuable biomarkers for the molecular characterization of mental disorders in the future.

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a serious mental health condition thought to be mediated by a dysregulated stress response system. Stress, especially chronic stress, affects mitochondrial activity and their efficiency in duplicating their genomes. Human cells contain numerous mitochondria that harbor multiple copies of their own genome, which consist of a mixture of wild type and variant mtDNA - a condition known as mitochondrial heteroplasmy. Number of mitochondrial genomes in a cell and the degree of heteroplasmy may serve as an indicator of mitochondrial allostatic load. Changes in mtDNA copy number and the proportion of variant mtDNA may be related to mental disorders and symptom severity, suggesting an involvement of mitochondrial dysfunction also in PTSD. Therefore, we examined number and composition of mitochondrial DNA before and after six weeks of inpatient psychotherapy treatment in a cohort of 60 female PTSD patients. We extracted DNA from isolated monocytes before and after inpatient treatment and quantified cellular mtDNA using multiplex qPCR. We hypothesized that treatment would lead to changes in cellular mtDNA levels and that change in mtDNA level would be associated with PTSD symptom severity and treatment response. It could be shown that mtDNA copy number and the ratio of variant mtDNA decreased during therapy, however, this change did not correlate with treatment response. Our results suggest that inpatient treatment can reduce signs of mitochondrial allostatic load, which could have beneficial effects on mental health. The quantification of mtDNA and the determination of cellular heteroplasmy could represent valuable biomarkers for the molecular characterization of mental disorders in the future.

The extent and impacts of biological invasions on biodiversity are largely shaped by an array of socio-economic and environmental factors, which exhibit high variation among countries. Yet, a global analysis of how these factors vary across countries is currently lacking. Here, we investigate how five broad, country-specific socio-economic and environmental indices (Governance, Trade, Environmental Performance, Lifestyle and Education, Innovation) explain country-level (1) established alien species (EAS) richness of eight taxonomic groups, and (2) proactive or reactive capacity to prevent and manage biological invasions and their impacts. These indices underpin many aspects of the invasion process, including the introduction, establishment, spread and management of alien species. They are also general enough to enable a global comparison across countries, and are therefore essential for defining future scenarios for biological invasions. Models including Trade, Governance, Lifestyle and Education, or a combination of these, best explained EAS richness across taxonomic groups and national proactive or reactive capacity. Historical (1996 or averaged over 1996–2015) levels of Governance and Trade better explained both EAS richness and the capacity of countries to manage invasions than more recent (2015) levels, revealing a historical legacy with important implications for the future of biological invasions. Using Governance and Trade to define a two-dimensional socio-economic space in which the position of a country captures its capacity to address issues of biological invasions, we identified four main clusters of countries in 2015. Most countries had an increase in Trade over the past 25 years, but trajectories were more geographically heterogeneous for Governance. Declines in levels of Governance are concerning as they may be responsible for larger levels of invasions in the future. By identifying the factors influencing EAS richness and the regions most su

Biological invasions are a major threat to global biodiversity with particularly strong implications for island biodiversity. Much research has been dedicated towards understanding historic and current changes in alien species distribution and impacts on islands and potential changes under future climate change. However, projections of how alien species richness and impacts on islands might develop in the future are still lacking. In the absence of reliable projections, expert-based assessments are a valuable tool to investigate the importance of different drivers and pathways and the distributions of potential impacts of future biological invasions. These insights can guide subsequent quantification efforts and inform invasive species management and policy. In this study, we performed a survey among 126 experts in invasion science ranging from scientists to managers and decision makers with a focus on island systems until the mid-21st century. The survey revealed that out of 15 drivers, six were considered important by almost all respondents (>90%). Of these, trade and transport was identified as most important at the introduction stage (99.2%) and land use/cover change as most important at the establishment (96.8%) and spread (95.2%) stage. Additionally, the experts considered that alien species were more likely to be introduced (93.7%) and spread (78.6%) as stowaways than through any other pathway. In general, respondents agreed that the impacts of alien species will increase on all types of islands, particularly on oceanic islands, followed by atolls and continental islands. Within islands, terrestrial ecosystems were assumed to be impacted more severely than marine ecosystems. Finally, the survey hints toward the potential for effective communication, scientific research and increased pro-active management of alien species on islands to reduce their future consequences. Given the major threat represented by invasive alien species on islands, these result

Left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) are increasingly being used to treat end-stage heart failure. Despite the increased prevalence of these devices, there is a still a high 1-year mortality rate. The purpose of this integrative review was to systematically evaluate research studies that focused on the process and content of LVAD related end-of-life discussions. A literature search was conducted from earliest available date to November, 2017. A total of 59 citations were produced, 13 articles went under full review, and six studies remained for inclusion in this review. Patients and their caregivers experienced confusion and frustration regarding the end-of-life experiences and care related to disjointed care by their provider teams. Clinician experiences and opinions also suggested a controversy about deactivation of the LVAD at the end-of-life, and a divide regarding practices at the end-of-life. Research focused on system-level factors involved in end-of-life care for patients with an LVAD is needed.

Left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) are increasingly being used to treat end-stage heart failure. Despite the increased prevalence of these devices, there is a still a high 1-year mortality rate. The purpose of this integrative review was to systematically evaluate research studies that focused on the process and content of LVAD related end-of-life discussions. A literature search was conducted from earliest available date to November, 2017. A total of 59 citations were produced, 13 articles went under full review, and six studies remained for inclusion in this review. Patients and their caregivers experienced confusion and frustration regarding the end-of-life experiences and care related to disjointed care by their provider teams. Clinician experiences and opinions also suggested a controversy about deactivation of the LVAD at the end-of-life, and a divide regarding practices at the end-of-life. Research focused on system-level factors involved in end-of-life care for patients with an LVAD is needed.

Return of samples from the surface of Mars has been a goal of the international Mars science community for many years. Affirmation by NASA and ESA of the importance of Mars exploration led the agencies to establish the international MSR Objectives and Samples Team (iMOST). The purpose of the team is to re-evaluate and update the sample-related science and engineering objectives of a Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign. The iMOST team has also undertaken to define the measurements and the types of samples that can best address the objectives. Seven objectives have been defined for MSR, traceable through two decades of previously published international priorities. The first two objectives are further divided into sub-objectives. Within the main part of the report, the importance to science and/or engineering of each objective is described, critical measurements that would address the objectives are specified, and the kinds of samples that would be most likely to carry key information are identified. These seven objectives provide a framework for demonstrating how the first set of returned Martian samples would impact future Martian science and exploration. They also have implications for how analogous investigations might be conducted for samples returned by future missions from other solar system bodies, especially those that may harbor biologically relevant or sensitive material, such as Ocean Worlds (Europa, Enceladus, Titan) and others. Summary of Objectives and Sub-Objectives for MSR Identified by iMOST: Objective 1 Interpret the primary geologic processes and history that formed the Martian geologic record, with an emphasis on the role of water. Intent To investigate the geologic environment(s) represented at the Mars 2020 landing site, provide definitive geologic context for collected samples, and detail any characteristics that might relate to past biologic processesThis objective is divided into five sub-objectives that would apply at different landing site

The Hamburg (H4) meteorite fell on January 17, 2018 at 01:08 UT approximately 10km North of Ann Arbor, Michigan. More than two dozen fragments totaling under one kilogram were recovered, primarily from frozen lake surfaces. The fireball initial velocity was 15.83 $\pm$ 0.05 km/s, based on four independent records showing the fireball above 50 km altitude. The radiant had a zenith angle of 66.1 $\pm$ 0.29 degs and an azimuth of 121.56 $\pm$ 1.2 degs. The resulting low inclination ($<$ 1 deg) Apollo-type orbit has a large aphelion distance and Tisserand value relative to Jupiter (Tj) of $\sim$ 3. Two major flares dominant the energy deposition profile, centred at 24.1 and 21.7 km altitude respectively under dynamic pressures of 5-7 MPa. Our preferred total energy for the Hamburg fireball is 2 to 7 T TNT (8.4 to 28 x 10$^9$ J), which corresponds to a likely initial mass in the range of 60 to 225 kg or diameter between 0.3 to 0.5 m. Based on the model of Granvik et al (2018), the meteorite originated in an escape route from the mid-outer asteroid belt. Hamburg is the 14th known H-chondrite with an instrumentally-derived pre-atmospheric orbit, half of which have small ($<$5 deg) inclinations making connection with (6) Hebe problematic. A definitive parent body consistent with all 14 known H-chondrite orbits remains elusive, Comment: 85 pages, 4 tables, 15 figures, 1 appendix. Accepted to Meteoritics and Planetary Science, June 19, 2019

This work presents numerical simulations of meteoroid streams released by comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner over the period 1850-2030. The initial methodology, based on Vaubaillon et al. (2005), has been updated and modified to account for the evolution of the comet's dust production along its orbit. The peak time, intensity, and duration of the shower were assessed using simulated activity profiles that are calibrated to match observations of historic Draconid outbursts. The characteristics of all the main apparitions of the shower are reproduced, with a peak time accuracy of half an hour and an intensity estimate correct to within a factor of 2 (visual showers) or 3 (radio outbursts). Our model also revealed the existence of a previously unreported strong radio outburst on October 9 1999, that has since been confirmed by archival radar measurements. The first results of the model, presented in Egal et al. (2018), provided one of the best predictions of the recent 2018 outburst. Three future radio outbursts are predicted in the next decade, in 2019, 2025 and 2029. The strongest activity is expected in 2025 when the Earth encounters the young 2012 trail. Because of the dynamical uncertainties associated with comet 21P's orbital evolution between the 1959 and 1965 apparitions, observations of the 2019 radio outburst would be particularly helpful to improve the confidence of subsequent forecasts., Comment: Icarus - Accepted

AlienScenarios, a three-year project starting in March 2019, will evaluate for the first time the range of plausible futures of biological invasions for the 21st century. AlienScenarios consists of seven project partners and seven integrated complementary subprojects. We will develop the qualitative narratives for plausible futures of global alien species richness and impacts in the 21st century – the Alien Species Narratives (ASNs). The ASNs further serve as overarching concept to parameterize quantitative models of global, continental and regional futures of biological invasions. We will also establish the first global mechanistic invasion model considering major processes of biological invasions such as source pools, driver dynamics and establishment rates. Further, we will assess the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) in terms of economic costs according to the different ASNs. In addition, we will assess the consequences of different levels of implementation of the European Union Regulation on IAS. Providing some more detailed regional information, we will analyse changes of the functional composition of communities in mountain regions under different scenario storylines and will extend the analyses to the Global South using Panama as a country-level case study. Finally, the results of the other WPs will be synthesized, and the approach and results of AlienScenarios will be discussed with and communicated to stakeholders and the wider community. AlienScenarios will provide crucially needed insights for pro-active alien species management and policy. It will thus make an important contribution to global assessments and projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as regional policies (e.g. EU regulation on IAS).

The Hamburg (H4) meteorite fell on January 17, 2018 at 01:08 UT approximately 10km North of Ann Arbor, Michigan. More than two dozen fragments totaling under one kilogram were recovered, primarily from frozen lake surfaces. The fireball initial velocity was 15.83 $\pm$ 0.05 km/s, based on four independent records showing the fireball above 50 km altitude. The radiant had a zenith angle of 66.1 $\pm$ 0.29 degs and an azimuth of 121.56 $\pm$ 1.2 degs. The resulting low inclination ($<$ 1 deg) Apollo-type orbit has a large aphelion distance and Tisserand value relative to Jupiter (Tj) of $\sim$ 3. Two major flares dominant the energy deposition profile, centred at 24.1 and 21.7 km altitude respectively under dynamic pressures of 5-7 MPa. Our preferred total energy for the Hamburg fireball is 2 to 7 T TNT (8.4 to 28 x 10$^9$ J), which corresponds to a likely initial mass in the range of 60 to 225 kg or diameter between 0.3 to 0.5 m. Based on the model of Granvik et al (2018), the meteorite originated in an escape route from the mid-outer asteroid belt. Hamburg is the 14th known H-chondrite with an instrumentally-derived pre-atmospheric orbit, half of which have small ($<$5 deg) inclinations making connection with (6) Hebe problematic. A definitive parent body consistent with all 14 known H-chondrite orbits remains elusive, Comment: 85 pages, 4 tables, 15 figures, 1 appendix. Accepted to Meteoritics and Planetary Science, June 19, 2019

This work presents numerical simulations of meteoroid streams released by comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner over the period 1850-2030. The initial methodology, based on Vaubaillon et al. (2005), has been updated and modified to account for the evolution of the comet's dust production along its orbit. The peak time, intensity, and duration of the shower were assessed using simulated activity profiles that are calibrated to match observations of historic Draconid outbursts. The characteristics of all the main apparitions of the shower are reproduced, with a peak time accuracy of half an hour and an intensity estimate correct to within a factor of 2 (visual showers) or 3 (radio outbursts). Our model also revealed the existence of a previously unreported strong radio outburst on October 9 1999, that has since been confirmed by archival radar measurements. The first results of the model, presented in Egal et al. (2018), provided one of the best predictions of the recent 2018 outburst. Three future radio outbursts are predicted in the next decade, in 2019, 2025 and 2029. The strongest activity is expected in 2025 when the Earth encounters the young 2012 trail. Because of the dynamical uncertainties associated with comet 21P's orbital evolution between the 1959 and 1965 apparitions, observations of the 2019 radio outburst would be particularly helpful to improve the confidence of subsequent forecasts., Comment: Icarus - Accepted