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Cities are at the forefront of sustainability agendas, especially as places to implement the solutions needed to address key sustainability challenges. City-level governments have responded in diverse ways to these challenges, including adopting and implementing a mix of policies to improve resilience and liveability that address issues including heat mitigation, water security, and climate risks. To support such sustainability strategies, we argue that mainstreaming, as a process of embedding novel thinking and solutions into governance and practice, urgently needs to be comprehensively understood and leveraged. Therefore, drawing on a mix of empirical and theoretical research and focusing on the mainstreaming of nature-based solutions in urban planning, we examine and systematically conceptualise mainstreaming as a governance and planning process. Drawing on a recent case study of urban forestry governance across metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, we show how the identified drivers and mechanisms of mainstreaming can be successfully applied. The resulting framework emphasises the need for a dynamic understanding of mainstreaming processes and what ensures they can be enabled and accelerated in the governance and planning of cities. Further, this framework may be applied for mainstreaming urban nature-based solutions as well as other sustainability innovations.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are implemented across multiple cities worldwide and feature as promising solutions in local and global agendas. As solutions that can deal with interlinked urban challenges, NBS are being taken up by cities in different geographies and are considered to be mainstreaming. The process, referred to as mainstreaming, and how this can be achieved needs to be better understood, which is identified as a research gap. In this paper, we examine the roles that actors can undertake that contribute to the mainstreaming of NBS in cities. The aim is to understand the roles that urban actors, especially those within local governments, assume in the process of NBS mainstreaming to mobilise and implement novel and innovative strategic solutions for cities. This topic is explored in a case study of the metropolitan Melbourne region in Australia, where urban forest strategies are gaining traction in local governments for addressing urban resilience concerns. We present how the roles different actors assume contribute to the (re)shaping, building, and/or transformation of institutions to attain climate and ecologically resilient cities. The main contribution of this paper is a pathways framework that illustrates how sustainability norms can move through the mainstreaming process, facilitated by the roles that actors undertake – to champion, advocate, and realise transformative discourses and actions within urban politics and urban practices. Our key findings are framed as success factors of mainstreaming agencies and pathways underpinning transformation, which are: commitment longevity, innovative capacity, collaborative mindset, and on-ground delivery.

Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.

Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.

© 2020 by the authors. What influences farmers' decisions to adopt agricultural technologies is an important question for international agricultural research projects. There are often interpersonal differences between women and men that influence the adoption of decisions and behaviours, but few studies in the literature focus on these factors. We describe a game-based approach to explore decision-making processes underpinning the adoption of new farming technologies and practices in Lao People's Democratic Republic. Sowing a different rice variety is the tailored technology. The game explored adoption behaviours influencing decisions on transitioning from growing glutinous rice, a traditional variety preferred for consumption, to "white" rice for commercial export to international markets. We conducted separate game-workshops with 36 women and 36 men in 4 villages of southern Laos that were transitioning from subsistence to commercial smallholder production. The gaming exposed various possible behaviours and decisions that women and men considered. Access to resources, both assets and information, was equal for all players, yet women were found to adopt new rice varieties more readily than men and to engage in cooperative behaviours in the game situation. The study highlighted the need for further gender-sensitive research into cooperation among women in the agricultural context-an understanding beneficial for countries and regions undergoing agricultural transition.

Rapid urbanisation generates risks and opportunities for sustainable development. Urban policy and decision makers are challenged by the complexity of cities as social-ecological-technical systems. Consequently there is an increasing need for collaborative knowledge development that supports a whole-of-system view, and transformational change at multiple scales. Such holistic urban approaches are rare in practice. A co-design process involving researchers, practitioners and other stakeholders, has progressed such an approach in the Australian context, aiming to also contribute to international knowledge development and sharing. This process has generated three outputs: (1) a shared framework to support more systematic knowledge development and use, (2) identification of barriers that create a gap between stated urban goals and actual practice, and (3) identification of strategic focal areas to address this gap. Developing integrated strategies at broader urban scales is seen as the most pressing need. The knowledge framework adopts a systems perspective that incorporates the many urban trade-offs and synergies revealed by a systems view. Broader implications are drawn for policy and decision makers, for researchers and for a shared forward agenda.

Provision of urban water supplies to rapidly growing cities of South East Asia is difficult because of increasing demand for limited water supplies, periodic droughts, and depletion and contamination of surface and groundwater. In such adverse environments, effective policy and planning processes are required to secure adequate water supplies. Developing a Water Needs Index reveals key elements of the complex urban water supply by means of a participatory approach for rapid and interdisciplinary assessment. The index uses deliberative interactions with stakeholders to create opportunities for mutual understanding, confirmation of constructs and capacity building of all involved. In Can Tho City, located at the heart of the Mekong delta in Vietnam, a Water Needs Index has been developed with local stakeholders. The functional attributes of the Water Needs Index at this urban scale have been critically appraised. Systemic water issues, supply problems, health issues and inadequate, poorly functioning infrastructure requiring attention from local authorities have been identified. Entrenched social and economic inequities in access to water and sanitation, as well as polluting environmental management practices has caused widespread problems for urban populations. The framework provides a common language based on systems thinking, increased cross-sectoral communication, as well as increased recognition of problem issues; this ought to lead to improved urban water management. Importantly, the case study shows that the approach can help to overcome biases of local planners based on their limited experience (information black spots), to allow them to address problems experienced in all areas of the city.

Provision of urban water supplies to rapidly growing cities of South East Asia is difficult because of increasing demand for limited water supplies, periodic droughts, and depletion and contamination of surface and groundwater. In such adverse environments, effective policy and planning processes are required to secure adequate water supplies. Developing a Water Needs Index reveals key elements of the complex urban water supply by means of a participatory approach for rapid and interdisciplinary assessment. The index uses deliberative interactions with stakeholders to create opportunities for mutual understanding, confirmation of constructs and capacity building of all involved. In Can Tho City, located at the heart of the Mekong delta in Vietnam, a Water Needs Index has been developed with local stakeholders. The functional attributes of the Water Needs Index at this urban scale have been critically appraised. Systemic water issues, supply problems, health issues and inadequate, poorly functioning infrastructure requiring attention from local authorities have been identified. Entrenched social and economic inequities in access to water and sanitation, as well as polluting environmental management practices has caused widespread problems for urban populations. The framework provides a common language based on systems thinking, increased cross-sectoral communication, as well as increased recognition of problem issues; this ought to lead to improved urban water management. Importantly, the case study shows that the approach can help to overcome biases of local planners based on their limited experience (information black spots), to allow them to address problems experienced in all areas of the city.

Provision of urban water supplies to rapidly growing cities of South East Asia is difficult because of increasing demand for limited water supplies, periodic droughts, and depletion and contamination of surface and groundwater. In such adverse environments, effective policy and planning processes are required to secure adequate water supplies. Developing a Water Needs Index reveals key elements of the complex urban water supply by means of a participatory approach for rapid and interdisciplinary assessment. The index uses deliberative interactions with stakeholders to create opportunities for mutual understanding, confirmation of constructs and capacity building of all involved. In Can Tho City, located at the heart of the Mekong delta in Vietnam, a Water Needs Index has been developed with local stakeholders. The functional attributes of the Water Needs Index at this urban scale have been critically appraised. Systemic water issues, supply problems, health issues and inadequate, poorly functioning infrastructure requiring attention from local authorities have been identified. Entrenched social and economic inequities in access to water and sanitation, as well as polluting environmental management practices has caused widespread problems for urban populations. The framework provides a common language based on systems thinking, increased cross-sectoral communication, as well as increased recognition of problem issues; this ought to lead to improved urban water management. Importantly, the case study shows that the approach can help to overcome biases of local planners based on their limited experience (information black spots), to allow them to address problems experienced in all areas of the city.

Urban water management can be challenging, but in Small Island Developing States it is particularly difficult due to resource constraints and isolation. This is the situation in the town of Tarawa in Kiribati, where attempts to improve water services have often not led to the desired outcomes. The reasons are varied, and include widely a lack of consideration of local circumstances, process requirements, and inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders, and inadequate cross-sectoral coordination. In light of the tendency in urban water planning to assume only the idealized performance of strategies, the authors argue that there is a need to also formally consider the likelihood of realizing this idealized performance. It is difficult to assess such likelihoods, other than via the use of judgments by expert and local stakeholders. Such judgments are typically qualitative and fairly abstract and often not directly concerning a particular strategy. The current paper provides a methodology to assess the likelihood of the idealized performance of strategies, based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) and Subjective Logic (SL) utilizing expert and local knowledge, creating a capacity to capture and apply previous experiences, and dispersed knowledge in decision making and planning. The methodology has been developed and tested on water management strategies in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. As such, this paper provides a method for mapping the causal explanations for why developments do not achieve their set goals, and the approach may form the basis for assessments to be more widely applied when evaluating urban water strategies in similar contexts. In this paper, the approach has been applied by using existing data from interviews and literature to evaluate one strategy, reserve extensions and groundwater extraction. Other strategies, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and have also been evaluated but have not been described in this paper because of limited space. 2012 Els

Provision of urban water supplies to rapidly growing cities of South East Asia is difficult because of increasing demand for limited water supplies, periodic droughts, and depletion and contamination of surface and groundwater. In such adverse environments, effective policy and planning processes are required to secure adequate water supplies. Developing a Water Needs Index reveals key elements of the complex urban water supply by means of a participatory approach for rapid and interdisciplinary assessment. The index uses deliberative interactions with stakeholders to create opportunities for mutual understanding, confirmation of constructs and capacity building of all involved. In Can Tho City, located at the heart of the Mekong delta in Vietnam, a Water Needs Index has been developed with local stakeholders. The functional attributes of the Water Needs Index at this urban scale have been critically appraised. Systemic water issues, supply problems, health issues and inadequate, poorly functioning infrastructure requiring attention from local authorities have been identified. Entrenched social and economic inequities in access to water and sanitation, as well as polluting environmental management practices has caused widespread problems for urban populations. The framework provides a common language based on systems thinking, increased cross-sectoral communication, as well as increased recognition of problem issues; this ought to lead to improved urban water management. Importantly, the case study shows that the approach can help to overcome biases of local planners based on their limited experience (information black spots), to allow them to address problems experienced in all areas of the city.

Decentralised water systems are considered to be effective, beneficial and are useful in a number of urban and peri-urban settings, and have been implemented to varying degrees across much of Australia. The use of decentralised water systems has introduced a change in the style of water service delivery and often there are new actors responsible and involved in the maintenance and operation of these systems. This raises questions about how to best implement and govern the use of decentralised water systems. To understand the issues and problem mitigation approaches required for decentralised systems, collection of data on the effectiveness, difficulties, functional aspects and ongoing problems in providing water services is required. Understanding the issues involved is not necessarily straightforward, as performance can be viewed from many different perspectives and may be difficult to measure. One key perspective to consider is that of householders, in their role as end-users of decentralised water systems. This paper suggests that dedicated household surveys can provide important information on the performance of decentralised water systems based on personal understanding and experience of these systems. This is stated on the basis of householder survey trials which indeed seem to provide useful information, both in terms of feedback from the individual and in generating a coherent data set from which to statistically model the adequacy of various implementation styles and governance structures. An exploration of data sets from survey trials have contributed to collective learning, necessary in firmly establishing decentralised systems as viable options for the provision of urban water services now and into the future.

Decentralised water systems are considered to be effective, beneficial and are useful in a number of urban and peri-urban settings, and have been implemented to varying degrees across much of Australia. The use of decentralised water systems has introduced a change in the style of water service delivery and often there are new actors responsible and involved in the maintenance and operation of these systems. This raises questions about how to best implement and govern the use of decentralised water systems. To understand the issues and problem mitigation approaches required for decentralised systems, collection of data on the effectiveness, difficulties, functional aspects and ongoing problems in providing water services is required. Understanding the issues involved is not necessarily straightforward, as performance can be viewed from many different perspectives and may be difficult to measure. One key perspective to consider is that of householders, in their role as end-users of decentralised water systems. This paper suggests that dedicated household surveys can provide important information on the performance of decentralised water systems based on personal understanding and experience of these systems. This is stated on the basis of householder survey trials which indeed seem to provide useful information, both in terms of feedback from the individual and in generating a coherent data set from which to statistically model the adequacy of various implementation styles and governance structures. An exploration of data sets from survey trials have contributed to collective learning, necessary in firmly establishing decentralised systems as viable options for the provision of urban water services now and into the future.

This paper provides a discussion on how case study research fits into the bigger picture of theory building in the social sciences. In particular, it discusses how case study research, as opposed to more classical quantitative (often statistical) approaches contribute to the progression of collective learning in science. As such, for arguments sake, in this paper these approaches (i.e. qualitative vs. quantitative) are put into a competitive relationship. It is acknowledged that such competitive relationship does not exist in theory, as they are often considered to be complementary, but in practice qualitative research is often more difficult to publish; and tends to be more difficult to defend. Therefore the authors believe there is a need to better recognise the role of case study research in the scientific process; and in light of recent development in participatory modelling to collectively re-evaluate how case study research contributes to the progression of scientific learning?

This paper provides a discussion on how case study research fits into the bigger picture of theory building in the social sciences. In particular, it discusses how case study research, as opposed to more classical quantitative (often statistical) approaches contribute to the progression of collective learning in science. As such, for arguments sake, in this paper these approaches (i.e. qualitative vs. quantitative) are put into a competitive relationship. It is acknowledged that such competitive relationship does not exist in theory, as they are often considered to be complementary, but in practice qualitative research is often more difficult to publish; and tends to be more difficult to defend. Therefore the authors believe there is a need to better recognise the role of case study research in the scientific process; and in light of recent development in participatory modelling to collectively re-evaluate how case study research contributes to the progression of scientific learning?

This paper provides a discussion on how case study research fits into the bigger picture of theory building in the social sciences. In particular, it discusses how case study research, as opposed to more classical quantitative (often statistical) approaches contribute to the progression of collective learning in science. As such, for arguments sake, in this paper these approaches (i.e. qualitative vs. quantitative) are put into a competitive relationship. It is acknowledged that such competitive relationship does not exist in theory, as they are often considered to be complementary, but in practice qualitative research is often more difficult to publish; and tends to be more difficult to defend. Therefore the authors believe there is a need to better recognise the role of case study research in the scientific process; and in light of recent development in participatory modelling to collectively re-evaluate how case study research contributes to the progression of scientific learning?

Managing sewer blockages represents a significant operational challenge for water utilities. In Australia, company-level blockage rates are used to compare the effectiveness of the management strategies of different utilities. Anecdotal evidence suggests this may not be a fair basis for comparison because blockages are influenced by a range of factors beyond management control and that vary from company to company. This issue was investigated as part of a broader research effort on sewer blockage management undertaken in conjunction with the Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA) and its members. A Web-based survey was used to collate expert opinion on factors that influence blockage rate. The identified factors were then investigated in an exploratory analysis of blockage-related data provided by two participating utilities, supported by literature reviews. The results indicate that blockage rate is influenced by a range of factors, including asset attributes, climatic conditions, water consumption, and soil type. Since these factors vary from utility to utility, this research supports the assertion that company-level blockage rate is not in itself an appropriate metric for comparing management effectiveness.

This paper reports on the use of qualitative analysis to inform a risk analysis framework for decentralised water systems. To realise the benefits from these technologies, a methodology is applied to learn from previous difficulties in implementing and managing them. A workshop process was used to capture stories from industry professionals on difficulties they have encountered in planning and implementation. Qualitative analysis of story narratives revealed stages where there was some type of development process failure; as well as failure modes and factors influencing the difficulties encountered. The analysis also generated insights: difficulties in one part of the development process tends to propagate to subsequent stages; system difficulties most often occurred in the policy stage of development due to institutional inertia and lack of adaptive governance; and the best indicator of problems with a decentralised system was complaints of poor water quality. Furthermore, this paper also provides a method to learn from past difficulties by identifying what data needs to be collected in order to populate a risk model which can be used for improving risk assessment of the development process for decentralised systems. This can provide a basis for better decision making, policy and guidelines; an important factor in mainstream acceptance.

Decentralised water supply systems are becoming increasingly affordable and commonplace in Australia and have the potential to alleviate urban water shortages and reduce pollution into natural receiving marine and freshwater streams. Learning processes are necessary to support the efficient implementation of decentralised systems. These processes reveal the complex socio-technical and institutional factors to be considered when developing an enabling environment supporting decentralised water and wastewater servicing solutions. Critical to the technological transition towards established decentralised systems is the ability to create strategic and adaptive capacity to promote learning and dialogue. Learning processes require institutional mechanisms to ensure the lessons are incorporated into the formulation of policy and regulation, through constructive involvement of key government institutions. Engagement of stakeholders is essential to the enabling environment. Collaborative learning environments using systems analysis with communities (social learning) and adaptive management techniques are useful in refining and applying scientists' and managers' knowledge (knowledge management).

Decentralised water supply systems are becoming increasingly affordable and commonplace in Australia and have the potential to alleviate urban water shortages and reduce pollution into natural receiving marine and freshwater streams. Learning processes are necessary to support the efficient implementation of decentralised systems. These processes reveal the complex socio-technical and institutional factors to be considered when developing an enabling environment supporting decentralised water and wastewater servicing solutions. Critical to the technological transition towards established decentralised systems is the ability to create strategic and adaptive capacity to promote learning and dialogue. Learning processes require institutional mechanisms to ensure the lessons are incorporated into the formulation of policy and regulation, through constructive involvement of key government institutions. Engagement of stakeholders is essential to the enabling environment. Collaborative learning environments using systems analysis with communities (social learning) and adaptive management techniques are useful in refining and applying scientists' and managers' knowledge (knowledge management).

Decentralised water systems are considered to be effective, beneficial and are useful in a number of urban and peri-urban settings, and have been implemented to varying degrees across much of Australia. The use of decentralised water systems has introduced a change in the style of water service delivery and often there are new actors responsible and involved in the maintenance and operation of these systems. This raises questions about how to best implement and govern the use of decentralised water systems. To understand the issues and problem mitigation approaches required for decentralised systems, collection of data on the effectiveness, difficulties, functional aspects and ongoing problems in providing water services is required. Understanding the issues involved is not necessarily straightforward, as performance can be viewed from many different perspectives and may be difficult to measure. One key perspective to consider is that of householders, in their role as end-users of decentralised water systems. This paper suggests that dedicated household surveys can provide important information on the performance of decentralised water systems based on personal understanding and experience of these systems. This is stated on the basis of householder survey trials which indeed seem to provide useful information, both in terms of feedback from the individual and in generating a coherent data set from which to statistically model the adequacy of various implementation styles and governance structures. An exploration of data sets from survey trials have contributed to collective learning, necessary in firmly establishing decentralised systems as viable options for the provision of urban water services now and into the future.

This paper provides a discussion on how case study research fits into the bigger picture of theory building in the social sciences. In particular, it discusses how case study research, as opposed to more classical quantitative (often statistical) approaches contribute to the progression of collective learning in science. As such, for arguments sake, in this paper these approaches (i.e. qualitative vs. quantitative) are put into a competitive relationship. It is acknowledged that such competitive relationship does not exist in theory, as they are often considered to be complementary, but in practice qualitative research is often more difficult to publish; and tends to be more difficult to defend. Therefore the authors believe there is a need to better recognise the role of case study research in the scientific process; and in light of recent development in participatory modelling to collectively re-evaluate how case study research contributes to the progression of scientific learning?

Decentralised water systems are considered to be effective, beneficial and are useful in a number of urban and peri-urban settings, and have been implemented to varying degrees across much of Australia. The use of decentralised water systems has introduced a change in the style of water service delivery and often there are new actors responsible and involved in the maintenance and operation of these systems. This raises questions about how to best implement and govern the use of decentralised water systems. To understand the issues and problem mitigation approaches required for decentralised systems, collection of data on the effectiveness, difficulties, functional aspects and ongoing problems in providing water services is required. Understanding the issues involved is not necessarily straightforward, as performance can be viewed from many different perspectives and may be difficult to measure. One key perspective to consider is that of householders, in their role as end-users of decentralised water systems. This paper suggests that dedicated household surveys can provide important information on the performance of decentralised water systems based on personal understanding and experience of these systems. This is stated on the basis of householder survey trials which indeed seem to provide useful information, both in terms of feedback from the individual and in generating a coherent data set from which to statistically model the adequacy of various implementation styles and governance structures. An exploration of data sets from survey trials have contributed to collective learning, necessary in firmly establishing decentralised systems as viable options for the provision of urban water services now and into the future.

Viewing an urban water system as a complex adaptive system provides new opportunities for analysis and avoids some critical simplifications. Taking this perspective, it is possible to explore the inter-related effects of changes to the system. This is particularly important in the developing world where donors providing aid aim to improve conditions but struggle to understand and quantify the systemic impacts of their actions. This is because an intervention aiming to improve condition may also have unintended and undesirable effects. To provide decision support, this paper describes an agent-based model of an urban water system, developed on the basis of ethnographic interviews, and subsequently evaluated by local stakeholders. The paper describes the model design as well as the results of scenarios. The model provides guidance on which system amendments may produce the best outcomes in terms of output variables, and on the basis of sense-checking and sensitivity analysis it is judged that model results are likely to give a good indication about possible real world outcomes. It is clear that no single strategy will solve all problems on its own, but that a combined strategy - with a strong focus on groundwater management and protection - is likely to be most successful.

Water issues are inherently local and inter-dependent and almost fully reliant on the interaction between humans and their socio-technical environments. Hence, the development of water management policies requires evidence-based information that deals with complex, contextual and multi-faceted issues. Composite indicator methodologies have been found to be useful tools supporting policy development and decision making in several fields. Targeted water management decisions can benefit from indicator methodologies that combine statistical and qualitative information to assess water issues and rank the differing 'needs' of locations. However, due to limitations, we argue that indicator methodologies are best supported by a broader deliberative process of engagement, involving in-depth exploration of issues using inclusive and collective learning processes. In this paper, an integrative and deliberative process is described and applied to understand and evaluate watershed resources and management in the Tigum-Aganan watershed, Philippines. Collectively, local knowledge from stakeholders and quantitative information have been used in developing the water needs index, providing data and informing the selection of data sources for use in the index methodology. In subscribing to the exchange of descriptive narratives we achieve a greater degree of context dependence, transparency and stakeholder participation in the assessment process. Whilst our assessment of the usefulness of the composite methodology is subjective, we believe that the methodology shows great promise; in particular in supporting the emergence of collective action.

Water issues are inherently local and inter-dependent and almost fully reliant on the interaction between humans and their socio-technical environments. Hence, the development of water management policies requires evidence-based information that deals with complex, contextual and multi-faceted issues. Composite indicator methodologies have been found to be useful tools supporting policy development and decision making in several fields. Targeted water management decisions can benefit from indicator methodologies that combine statistical and qualitative information to assess water issues and rank the differing 'needs' of locations. However, due to limitations, we argue that indicator methodologies are best supported by a broader deliberative process of engagement, involving in-depth exploration of issues using inclusive and collective learning processes. In this paper, an integrative and deliberative process is described and applied to understand and evaluate watershed resources and management in the Tigum-Aganan watershed, Philippines. Collectively, local knowledge from stakeholders and quantitative information have been used in developing the water needs index, providing data and informing the selection of data sources for use in the index methodology. In subscribing to the exchange of descriptive narratives we achieve a greater degree of context dependence, transparency and stakeholder participation in the assessment process. Whilst our assessment of the usefulness of the composite methodology is subjective, we believe that the methodology shows great promise; in particular in supporting the emergence of collective action.

International governments continue to mobilize their resources to assist in attaining the United Nations Millennium Development Goals targets. The Australian government is contributing to the goals of improving access to good quality water and sanitation for the world's poorest people through strategic planning for the allocation of financial and technical resources. Evidence-based information will assist in developing investment strategies where local needs for water supplies and sanitation in diverse, often remote locations are difficult to ascertain and deliver. Water management is a contextual and multi-faceted issue and there is a need to simplify complex aspects of water management into a smaller number of dimensions of meaningful information. This research investigates methodologies that support the integration of statistical and qualitative data to inform decisions on targeted aid interventions. Indicator methodology inspired by the Water Poverty Index (WPI) has been used to assess water issues and rank water 'needs' of locations as a means of decision support. The choice of appropriate scale and inclusion of temporal and spatial variability of water supplies and demand is absolutely critical when understanding the usefulness of indicator methodology. There are, and will always be, many spatial information and thematic information gaps often relating to particular issues that need to be addressed. In reality, assessments are often deduced from a situational snapshot using available data and information. As such, it is important that limitations of an assessment are made apparent to stakeholders and potential users in order to address concerns, inform opinions and enable decisions to be based within the context of pertinent issues, rather than based solely on a modelled representation of reality. A number of lessons have emerged when using indicators to formulate 'water needs' including the; (i) importance of considering data reliability issues, (ii) inclusio

International governments continue to mobilize their resources to assist in attaining the United Nations Millennium Development Goals targets. The Australian government is contributing to the goals of improving access to good quality water and sanitation for the world's poorest people through strategic planning for the allocation of financial and technical resources. Evidence-based information will assist in developing investment strategies where local needs for water supplies and sanitation in diverse, often remote locations are difficult to ascertain and deliver. Water management is a contextual and multi-faceted issue and there is a need to simplify complex aspects of water management into a smaller number of dimensions of meaningful information. This research investigates methodologies that support the integration of statistical and qualitative data to inform decisions on targeted aid interventions. Indicator methodology inspired by the Water Poverty Index (WPI) has been used to assess water issues and rank water 'needs' of locations as a means of decision support. The choice of appropriate scale and inclusion of temporal and spatial variability of water supplies and demand is absolutely critical when understanding the usefulness of indicator methodology. There are, and will always be, many spatial information and thematic information gaps often relating to particular issues that need to be addressed. In reality, assessments are often deduced from a situational snapshot using available data and information. As such, it is important that limitations of an assessment are made apparent to stakeholders and potential users in order to address concerns, inform opinions and enable decisions to be based within the context of pertinent issues, rather than based solely on a modelled representation of reality. A number of lessons have emerged when using indicators to formulate 'water needs' including the; (i) importance of considering data reliability issues, (ii) inclusio

This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory and transparency but also provides a direct link for assessing cost benefits and minimizing the risk of failure. Most importantly this prioritizes engagement, processes and an understanding of the local context. This paper describes how BNs have been developed and tested on water supply interventions in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. Models have been populated using data from interviews and literature to evaluate water supply options, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and reserve extensions; this paper reports only on the model relating to reserves extension, i.e. new reserves for protection of groundwater extracted for water distribution purposes.

lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory and transparency but also provides a direct link for assessing cost benefits and minimizing the risk of failure. Most importantly this prioritizes engagement, processes and an understanding of the local context. This paper describes how BNs have been developed and tested on water supply interventions in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. Models have been populated using data from interviews and literature to evaluate water supply options, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and reserve extensions; this paper reports only on the model relating to reserves extension, i.e. new reserves for protection of groundwater extracted for water distribution purposes.

lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory and transparency but also provides a direct link for assessing cost benefits and minimizing the risk of failure. Most importantly this prioritizes engagement, processes and an understanding of the local context. This paper describes how BNs have been developed and tested on water supply interventions in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. Models have been populated using data from interviews and literature to evaluate water supply options, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and reserve extensions; this paper reports only on the model relating to reserves extension, i.e. new reserves for protection of groundwater extracted for water distribution purposes.

Despite well meaning intentions, many aid interventions fail for one reason or another. The reasons are varied: lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory and transparency but also provides a direct link for assessing cost benefits and minimizing the risk of failure. Most importantly this prioritizes engagement, processes and an understanding of the local context. This paper describes how BNs have been developed and tested on water supply interventions in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. Models have been populated using data from interviews and literature to evaluate water supply options, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and reserve extensions; this paper reports only on the model relating to reserves extension, i.e. new reserves for protection of groundwater extracted for water distribution purposes.

Water services in Pacific Island Countries are particularly vulnerable due to a range of circumstances such as the scale of operation, remoteness of location, financial constraints, cultural complexity and the ability to access technical and other capacity by their administrations. Additionally, the authors argue that comparative assessment of water needs for differing locations is fraught with difficulty because of the combination of systemic complexity, diversity of situations and lack of suitable, consistent and objective data. In these challenging situations, a method for assessment of the vulnerability of water services has been developed on the basis of knowledge and experiences of water professionals, elicited using a structured group interaction known as a Delphi survey. The Delphi survey has been undertaken with a range of stakeholders including panels of experts, funding agencies and local decision makers. Through the Delphi process, key factors contributing to vulnerability have been identified and the output has been used to develop an index methodology. Such an index methodology, similar to the Climate Vulnerability index, has a number of dimensions, variables and appropriate weights expressed within a set of equations. Given quantification of variables, this method can be used to assess the relative vulnerability of water services in Pacific Island Countries. The method used to develop this index could also be applied to other contexts where appropriate.

There is an expectation that many cities in Australia may experience higher temperatures and reduced rainfall in the future. Hence, to support water policy analysis there is a need for predicting water demand and how it changes in response to climate chan

Despite well meaning intentions, many aid interventions fail for one reason or another. The reasons are varied: lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory and transparency but also provides a direct link for assessing cost benefits and minimizing the risk of failure. Most importantly this prioritizes engagement, processes and an understanding of the local context. This paper describes how BNs have been developed and tested on water supply interventions in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. Models have been populated using data from interviews and literature to evaluate water supply options, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and reserve extensions; this paper reports only on the model relating to reserves extension, i.e. new reserves for protection of groundwater extracted for water distribution purposes.

Despite well meaning intentions, many aid interventions fail for one reason or another. The reasons are varied: lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory and transparency but also provides a direct link for assessing cost benefits and minimizing the risk of failure. Most importantly this prioritizes engagement, processes and an understanding of the local context. This paper describes how BNs have been developed and tested on water supply interventions in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. Models have been populated using data from interviews and literature to evaluate water supply options, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and reserve extensions; this paper reports only on the model relating to reserves extension, i.e. new reserves for protection of groundwater extracted for water distribution purposes.

International governments continue to mobilize their resources to assist in attaining the United Nations Millennium Development Goals targets. The Australian government is contributing to the goals of improving access to good quality water and sanitation for the world's poorest people through strategic planning for the allocation of financial and technical resources. Evidence-based information will assist in developing investment strategies where local needs for water supplies and sanitation in diverse, often remote locations are difficult to ascertain and deliver. Water management is a contextual and multi-faceted issue and there is a need to simplify complex aspects of water management into a smaller number of dimensions of meaningful information. This research investigates methodologies that support the integration of statistical and qualitative data to inform decisions on targeted aid interventions. Indicator methodology inspired by the Water Poverty Index (WPI) has been used to assess water issues and rank water 'needs' of locations as a means of decision support. The choice of appropriate scale and inclusion of temporal and spatial variability of water supplies and demand is absolutely critical when understanding the usefulness of indicator methodology. There are, and will always be, many spatial information and thematic information gaps often relating to particular issues that need to be addressed. In reality, assessments are often deduced from a situational snapshot using available data and information. As such, it is important that limitations of an assessment are made apparent to stakeholders and potential users in order to address concerns, inform opinions and enable decisions to be based within the context of pertinent issues, rather than based solely on a modelled representation of reality. A number of lessons have emerged when using indicators to formulate 'water needs' including the; (i) importance of considering data reliability issues, (ii) inclusio

lack of consideration of local circumstances and process requirements, and in particular inadequate involvement of affected stakeholders as well as inadequate cross-sectorial coordination. This is not surprising given poor organizational memory combined with decisions being made under time pressure and strict deadlines combined with little adaptive capacity. Additionally, information about the importance of process requirements and engagement is qualitative and as such is unfortunately often given secondary importance. To address this, we suggest a Risk assessment component as part of the project design phase based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) utilizing expert and local knowledge. This not only improves organizational memory and transparency but also provides a direct link for assessing cost benefits and minimizing the risk of failure. Most importantly this prioritizes engagement, processes and an understanding of the local context. This paper describes how BNs have been developed and tested on water supply interventions in the town of Tarawa, Kiribati. Models have been populated using data from interviews and literature to evaluate water supply options, i.e. rainwater harvesting, desalination and reserve extensions; this paper reports only on the model relating to reserves extension, i.e. new reserves for protection of groundwater extracted for water distribution purposes.

International governments continue to mobilize their resources to assist in attaining the United Nations Millennium Development Goals targets. The Australian government is contributing to the goals of improving access to good quality water and sanitation for the world's poorest people through strategic planning for the allocation of financial and technical resources. Evidence-based information will assist in developing investment strategies where local needs for water supplies and sanitation in diverse, often remote locations are difficult to ascertain and deliver. Water management is a contextual and multi-faceted issue and there is a need to simplify complex aspects of water management into a smaller number of dimensions of meaningful information. This research investigates methodologies that support the integration of statistical and qualitative data to inform decisions on targeted aid interventions. Indicator methodology inspired by the Water Poverty Index (WPI) has been used to assess water issues and rank water 'needs' of locations as a means of decision support. The choice of appropriate scale and inclusion of temporal and spatial variability of water supplies and demand is absolutely critical when understanding the usefulness of indicator methodology. There are, and will always be, many spatial information and thematic information gaps often relating to particular issues that need to be addressed. In reality, assessments are often deduced from a situational snapshot using available data and information. As such, it is important that limitations of an assessment are made apparent to stakeholders and potential users in order to address concerns, inform opinions and enable decisions to be based within the context of pertinent issues, rather than based solely on a modelled representation of reality. A number of lessons have emerged when using indicators to formulate 'water needs' including the; (i) importance of considering data reliability issues, (ii) inclusio

Water development projects often fail, which represents a poor outcome given the limited progress against the Millennium Development Goals in providing people with adequate water and sanitation services. This may not be surprising given that water management has been identified as being in the complex system domain. According to the Cynefin framework, many traditional approaches are not suitable; but it suggests an approach based on the methods of probe, sense and respond. In line with this general framework, a participatory assessment methodology has been used to explore experiences in the atoll town of Tarawa in the Republic of Kiribati. After framing the case study, information was collected providing multiple perspectives and these include narrative sources. When reviewing previous experiences, project implementations are seen as probes or disturbances to the system from which patterns of behaviour can be sensed. For this purpose, the critical factors leading to success or failure are described using network representations. These are then used to inductively sense system patterns, and the conclusions thereupon reinforce key recommendations in a recent United Nations report. Additionally, the findings in this paper feed into a larger study where Agent-based simulation and Bayesian networks are used in a participatory setting for integrated assessments.

Water development projects often fail, which represents a poor outcome given the limited progress against the Millennium Development Goals in providing people with adequate water and sanitation services. This may not be surprising given that water management has been identified as being in the complex system domain. According to the Cynefin framework, many traditional approaches are not suitable; but it suggests an approach based on the methods of probe, sense and respond. In line with this general framework, a participatory assessment methodology has been used to explore experiences in the atoll town of Tarawa in the Republic of Kiribati. After framing the case study, information was collected providing multiple perspectives and these include narrative sources. When reviewing previous experiences, project implementations are seen as probes or disturbances to the system from which patterns of behaviour can be sensed. For this purpose, the critical factors leading to success or failure are described using network representations. These are then used to inductively sense system patterns, and the conclusions thereupon reinforce key recommendations in a recent United Nations report. Additionally, the findings in this paper feed into a larger study where Agent-based simulation and Bayesian networks are used in a participatory setting for integrated assessments.