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Each year, hundreds of millions of people are infected with arboviruses such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika, which are all primarily spread by the notorious mosquito Aedes aegypti. Traditional control measures have proven insufficient, necessitating innovations. In response, here we generate a next-generation CRISPR-based precision-guided sterile insect technique (pgSIT) for Ae. aegypti that disrupts genes essential for sex determination and fertility, producing predominantly sterile males that can be deployed at any life stage. Using mathematical models and empirical testing, we demonstrate that released pgSIT males can effectively compete with, suppress, and eliminate caged mosquito populations. This versatile species-specific platform has the potential for field deployment to effectively control wild populations of disease vectors.

Proposed genetic approaches for reducing human malaria include population modification, which introduces genes into vector mosquitoes to reduce or prevent parasite transmission. We demonstrate the potential of Cas9/guide RNA (gRNA)-based gene-drive systems linked to dual antiparasite effector genes to spread rapidly through mosquito populations. Two strains have an autonomous gene-drive system coupled to dual anti-Plasmodium falciparum effector genes comprising single-chain variable fragment monoclonal antibodies targeting parasite ookinetes and sporozoites in the African malaria mosquitoes Anopheles gambiae (AgTP13) and Anopheles coluzzii (AcTP13). The gene-drive systems achieved full introduction within 3 to 6 mo after release in small cage trials. Life-table analyses revealed no fitness loads affecting AcTP13 gene-drive dynamics but AgTP13 males were less competitive than wild types. The effector molecules reduced significantly both parasite prevalence and infection intensities. These data supported transmission modeling of conceptual field releases in an island setting that shows meaningful epidemiological impacts at different sporozoite threshold levels (2.5 to 10 k) for human infection by reducing malaria incidence in optimal simulations by 50 to 90% within as few as 1 to 2 mo after a series of releases, and by ≥90% within 3 mo. Modeling outcomes for low sporozoite thresholds are sensitive to gene-drive system fitness loads, gametocytemia infection intensities during parasite challenges, and the formation of potentially drive-resistant genome target sites, extending the predicted times to achieve reduced incidence. TP13-based strains could be effective for malaria control strategies following validation of sporozoite transmission threshold numbers and testing field-derived parasite strains. These or similar strains are viable candidates for future field trials in a malaria-endemic region.

The core components of CRISPR-based gene drives, Cas9 and guide RNA (gRNA), either can be linked within a self-contained single cassette (full gene-drive, fGD) or be provided in two separate elements (split gene-drive, sGD), the latter offering greater control options. We previously engineered split systems that could be converted genetically into autonomous full drives. Here, we examine such dual systems inserted at the spo11 locus that are recoded to restore gene function and thus organismic fertility. Despite minimal differences in transmission efficiency of the sGD or fGD drive elements in single generation crosses, the reconstituted spo11 fGD cassette surprisingly exhibits slower initial drive kinetics than the unlinked sGD element in multigenerational cage studies, but then eventually catches up to achieve a similar level of final introduction. These unexpected kinetic behaviors most likely reflect differing transient fitness costs associated with individuals co-inheriting Cas9 and gRNA transgenes during the drive process.

Each year, hundreds of millions of people are infected with arboviruses such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika, which are all primarily spread by the notorious mosquito Aedes aegypti. Traditional control measures have proven insufficient, necessitating innovations. In response, here we generate a next generation CRISPR-based precision-guided sterile insect technique (pgSIT) for Aedes aegypti that disrupts genes essential for sex determination and fertility, producing predominantly sterile males that can be deployed at any life stage. Using mathematical models and empirical testing, we demonstrate that released pgSIT males can effectively compete with, suppress, and eliminate caged mosquito populations. This versatile species-specific platform has the potential for field deployment to control wild populations, safely curtailing disease transmission.

Malaria is among the world's deadliest diseases, predominantly affecting Sub-Saharan Africa and killing over half a million people annually. Controlling the principal vector, the mosquito Anopheles gambiae, as well as other anophelines, is among the most effective methods to control disease spread. Here, we develop a genetic population suppression system termed Ifegenia (inherited female elimination by genetically encoded nucleases to interrupt alleles) in this deadly vector. In this bicomponent CRISPR-based approach, we disrupt a female-essential gene, femaleless (fle), demonstrating complete genetic sexing via heritable daughter gynecide. Moreover, we demonstrate that Ifegenia males remain reproductively viable and can load both fle mutations and CRISPR machinery to induce fle mutations in subsequent generations, resulting in sustained population suppression. Through modeling, we demonstrate that iterative releases of nonbiting Ifegenia males can act as an effective, confinable, controllable, and safe population suppression and elimination system.

A recurring target-site mutation identified in various pests and disease vectors alters the voltage gated sodium channel (vgsc) gene (often referred to as knockdown resistance or kdr) to confer resistance to commonly used insecticides, pyrethroids and DDT. The ubiquity of kdr mutations poses a major global threat to the continued use of insecticides as a means for vector control. In this study, we generate common kdr mutations in isogenic laboratory Drosophila strains using CRISPR/Cas9 editing. We identify differential sensitivities to permethrin and DDT versus deltamethrin among these mutants as well as contrasting physiological consequences of two different kdr mutations. Importantly, we apply a CRISPR-based allelic-drive to replace a resistant kdr mutation with a susceptible wild-type counterpart in population cages. This successful proof-of-principle opens-up numerous possibilities including targeted reversion of insecticide-resistant populations to a native susceptible state or replacement of malaria transmitting mosquitoes with those bearing naturally occurring parasite resistant alleles.

Building on an exercise that identified potential harms from simulated investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive for malaria vector control, a series of online workshops identified nine recommendations to advance future environmental risk assessment of gene drive applications.

A recurring target-site mutation identified in various pests and disease vectors alters the voltage gated sodium channel (vgsc) gene (often referred to as knockdown resistance or kdr) to confer resistance to commonly used insecticides, pyrethroids and DDT. The ubiquity of kdr mutations poses a major global threat to the continued use of insecticides as a means for vector control. In this study, we generate common kdr mutations in isogenic laboratory Drosophila strains using CRISPR/Cas9 editing. We identify differential sensitivities to permethrin and DDT versus deltamethrin among these mutants as well as contrasting physiological consequences of two different kdr mutations. Importantly, we apply a CRISPR-based allelic-drive to replace a resistant kdr mutation with a susceptible wild-type counterpart in population cages. This successful proof-of-principle opens-up numerous possibilities including targeted reversion of insecticide-resistant populations to a native susceptible state or replacement of malaria transmitting mosquitoes with those bearing naturally occurring parasite resistant alleles.

Building on an exercise that identified potential harms from simulated investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive for malaria vector control, a series of online workshops identified nine recommendations to advance future environmental risk assessment of gene drive applications.

Malaria is among the world’s deadliest diseases, predominantly affecting sub-Saharan Africa, and killing over half a million people annually. Controlling the principal vector, the mosquito Anopheles gambiae, as well as other anophelines, is among the most effective methods to control disease spread. Here we develop an innovative genetic population suppression system termed Ifegenia (Inherited Female Elimination by Genetically Encoded Nucleases to Interrupt Alleles) in this deadly vector. In this bicomponent CRISPR-based approach, we disrupt a female-essential gene, femaleless (fle), demonstrating complete genetic sexing via heritable daughter gynecide. Moreover, we show that Ifegenia males remain reproductively viable, and can load both fle mutations and CRISPR machinery to induce fle mutations in subsequent generations, resulting in sustained population suppression. Through modeling, we demonstrate that iterative releases of non-biting Ifegenia males can act as an effective, confinable, controllable, and safe population suppression and elimination system.

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods have recently been used to infer demographic parameters such as census population size and survival for fish of interest to fisheries and conservation. These methods have advantages over traditional mark-recapture methods as the mark is genetic, removing the need for physical marking and recapturing that may interfere with parameter estimation. For mosquitoes, the spatial distribution of close-kin pairs has been used to estimate mean dispersal distance, of relevance to vector-borne disease transmission and novel biocontrol strategies. Here, we extend CKMR methods to the life history of mosquitoes and comparable insects. We derive kinship probabilities for mother-offspring, father-offspring, full-sibling and half-sibling pairs, where an individual in each pair may be a larva, pupa or adult. A pseudo-likelihood approach is used to combine the marginal probabilities of all kinship pairs. To test the effectiveness of this approach at estimating mosquito demographic parameters, we develop an individual-based model of mosquito life history incorporating egg, larva, pupa and adult life stages. The simulation labels each individual with a unique identification number, enabling close-kin relationships to be inferred for sampled individuals. Using the dengue vector Aedes aegypti as a case study, we find the CKMR approach provides unbiased estimates of adult census population size, adult and larval mortality rates, and larval life stage duration for logistically feasible sampling schemes. Considering a simulated population of 3,000 adult mosquitoes, estimation of adult parameters is accurate when ca. 40 adult females are sampled biweekly over a three month period. Estimation of larval parameters is accurate when adult sampling is supplemented with ca. 120 larvae sampled biweekly over the same period. The methods are also effective at detecting intervention-induced increases in adult mortality and decreases in population size. As the cost

While efforts to control malaria with available tools have stagnated, and arbovirus outbreaks persist around the globe, the advent of clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat (CRISPR)-based gene editing has provided exciting new opportunities for genetics-based strategies to control these diseases. In one such strategy, called "population replacement", mosquitoes, and other disease vectors are engineered with effector genes that render them unable to transmit pathogens. These effector genes can be linked to "gene drive" systems that can bias inheritance in their favor, providing novel opportunities to replace disease-susceptible vector populations with disease-refractory ones over the course of several generations. While promising for the control of vector-borne diseases on a wide scale, this sets up an evolutionary tug-of-war between the introduced effector genes and the pathogen. Here, we review the disease-refractory genes designed to date to target Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmitted by Anopheles gambiae, and arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti, including dengue serotypes 2 and 3, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We discuss resistance concerns for these effector genes, and genetic approaches to prevent parasite and viral escape variants. One general approach is to increase the evolutionary hurdle required for the pathogen to evolve resistance by attacking it at multiple sites in its genome and/or multiple stages of development. Another is to reduce the size of the pathogen population by other means, such as with vector control and antimalarial drugs. We discuss lessons learned from the evolution of resistance to antimalarial and antiviral drugs and implications for the management of resistance after its emergence. Finally, we discuss the target product profile for population replacement strategies for vector-borne disease control. This differs between early phase field trials and wide-scale disease control. In the latter case, the demand

While efforts to control malaria with available tools have stagnated, and arbovirus outbreaks persist around the globe, the advent of clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat (CRISPR)-based gene editing has provided exciting new opportunities for genetics-based strategies to control these diseases. In one such strategy, called "population replacement", mosquitoes, and other disease vectors are engineered with effector genes that render them unable to transmit pathogens. These effector genes can be linked to "gene drive" systems that can bias inheritance in their favor, providing novel opportunities to replace disease-susceptible vector populations with disease-refractory ones over the course of several generations. While promising for the control of vector-borne diseases on a wide scale, this sets up an evolutionary tug-of-war between the introduced effector genes and the pathogen. Here, we review the disease-refractory genes designed to date to target Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmitted by Anopheles gambiae, and arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti, including dengue serotypes 2 and 3, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We discuss resistance concerns for these effector genes, and genetic approaches to prevent parasite and viral escape variants. One general approach is to increase the evolutionary hurdle required for the pathogen to evolve resistance by attacking it at multiple sites in its genome and/or multiple stages of development. Another is to reduce the size of the pathogen population by other means, such as with vector control and antimalarial drugs. We discuss lessons learned from the evolution of resistance to antimalarial and antiviral drugs and implications for the management of resistance after its emergence. Finally, we discuss the target product profile for population replacement strategies for vector-borne disease control. This differs between early phase field trials and wide-scale disease control. In the latter case, the demand

As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.

Homing-based gene drives, engineered using CRISPR/Cas9, have been proposed to spread desirable genes throughout populations. However, invasion of such drives can be hindered by the accumulation of resistant alleles. To limit this obstacle, we engineer a confinable population modification home-and-rescue (HomeR) drive in Drosophila targeting an essential gene. In our experiments, resistant alleles that disrupt the target gene function were recessive lethal and therefore disadvantaged. We demonstrate that HomeR can achieve an increase in frequency in population cage experiments, but that fitness costs due to the Cas9 insertion limit drive efficacy. Finally, we conduct mathematical modeling comparing HomeR to contemporary gene drive architectures for population modification over wide ranges of fitness costs, transmission rates, and release regimens. HomeR could potentially be adapted to other species, as a means for safe, confinable, modification of wild populations.

Cas9/guide RNA (gRNA)-based gene drive systems are expected to play a transformative role in malaria elimination efforts., whether through population modification, in which the drive system contains parasite-refractory genes, or population suppression, in which the drive system induces a severe fitness load resulting in population decline or extinction. DNA sequence polymorphisms representing alternate alleles at gRNA target sites may confer a drive-resistant phenotype in individuals carrying them. Modeling predicts that, for observed levels of SGV at potential target sites and observed rates of de novo DRA formation, population modification strategies are uniquely resilient to DRAs. We conclude that gene drives can succeed when fitness costs incurred by drive-carrying mosquitoes are low enough to prevent strong positive selection for DRAs produced de novo or as part of the SGV and that population modification strategies are less prone to failure due to drive resistance.

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue and malaria, pose significant global health burdens. Unfortunately, current control methods based on insecticides and environmental maintenance have fallen short of eliminating the disease burden. Scalable, deployable, genetic-based solutions are sought to reduce the transmission risk of these diseases. Pathogen-blocking Wolbachia bacteria, or genome engineering-based mosquito control strategies including gene drives have been developed to address these problems, both requiring the release of modified mosquitoes into the environment. Here, we review the latest developments, notable similarities, and critical distinctions between these promising technologies and discuss their future applications for mosquito-borne disease control.

Engineered reproductive species barriers are useful for impeding gene flow and driving desirable genes into wild populations in a reversible threshold-dependent manner. However, methods to generate synthetic barriers are lacking in advanced eukaryotes. Here, to overcome this challenge, we engineer SPECIES (Synthetic Postzygotic barriers Exploiting CRISPR-based Incompatibilities for Engineering Species), an engineered genetic incompatibility approach, to generate postzygotic reproductive barriers. Using this approach, we create multiple reproductively isolated SPECIES and demonstrate their reproductive isolation and threshold-dependent gene drive capabilities in D. melanogaster. Given the near-universal functionality of CRISPR tools, this approach should be portable to many species, including insect disease vectors in which confinable gene drives could be of great practical utility.

Forest-going populations are key to malaria transmission in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) and are therefore targeted for elimination efforts. Estimating the size of this population is essential for programs to assess, track and achieve their elimination goals. Leveraging data from three cross-sectional household surveys and one survey among forest-goers, the size of this high-risk population in a southern province of Lao PDR between December 2017 and November 2018 was estimated by two methods: population-based household surveys and capture-recapture. During the first month of the dry season, the first month of the rainy season, and the last month of the rainy season, respectively, 16.2% [14.7; 17.7], 9.3% [7.2; 11.3], and 5.3% [4.4; 6.1] of the adult population were estimated to have engaged in forest-going activities. The capture-recapture method estimated a total population size of 18,426 [16,529; 20,669] forest-goers, meaning 61.0% [54.2; 67.9] of the adult population had engaged in forest-going activities over the 12-month study period. This study demonstrates two methods for population size estimation to inform malaria research and programming. The seasonality and turnover within this forest-going population provide unique opportunities and challenges for control programs across the GMS as they work towards malaria elimination.

Interest in gene drive technology has continued to grow as promising new drive systems have been developed in the lab and discussions are moving towards implementing field trials. The prospect of field trials requires models that incorporate a significant degree of ecological detail, including parameters that change over time in response to environmental data such as temperature and rainfall, leading to seasonal patterns in mosquito population density. Epidemiological outcomes are also of growing importance, as: i) the suitability of a gene drive construct for release will depend on its expected impact on disease transmission, and ii) initial field trials are expected to have a measured entomological outcome and a modeled epidemiological outcome. We present MGDrivE 2 (Mosquito Gene Drive Explorer 2): a significant development from the MGDrivE 1 simulation framework that investigates the population dynamics of a variety of gene drive architectures and their spread through spatially-explicit mosquito populations. Key strengths and fundamental improvements of the MGDrivE 2 framework are: i) the ability of parameters to vary with time and induce seasonal population dynamics, ii) an epidemiological module accommodating reciprocal pathogen transmission between humans and mosquitoes, and iii) an implementation framework based on stochastic Petri nets that enables efficient model formulation and flexible implementation. Example MGDrivE 2 simulations are presented to demonstrate the application of the framework to a CRISPR-based split gene drive system intended to drive a disease-refractory gene into a population in a confinable and reversible manner, incorporating time-varying temperature and rainfall data. The simulations also evaluate impact on human disease incidence and prevalence. Further documentation and use examples are provided in vignettes at the project's CRAN repository. MGDrivE 2 is freely available as an open-source R package on CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.or

BackgroundVector-borne diseases are a major cause of disease burden in Guayaquil, Ecuador, especially arboviruses spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Understanding which household characteristics and risk factors lead to higher Ae. aegypti densities and consequent disease risk can help inform and optimize vector control programs.MethodsCross-sectional entomological surveys were conducted in Guayaquil between 2013 and 2016, covering household demographics, municipal services, potential breeding containers, presence of Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae, and history of using mosquito control methods. A zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was fitted to data for estimating the household pupal index. An additional model assessed the factors of the most productive breeding sites across all of the households.ResultsOf surveyed households, 610 satisfied inclusion criteria. The final household-level model found that collection of large solid items (e.g., furniture and tires) and rainfall the week of and 2 weeks before collection were negatively correlated with average pupae per container, while bed canopy use, unemployment, container water volume, and the interaction between large solid collection and rainfall 2 weeks before the sampling event were positively correlated. Selection of these variables across other top candidate models with ∆AICc < 1 was robust, with the strongest effects from large solid collection and bed canopy use. The final container-level model explaining the characteristics of breeding sites found that contaminated water is positively correlated with Ae. aegypti pupae counts while breeding sites composed of car parts, furniture, sewerage parts, vases, were all negatively correlated.ConclusionsHaving access to municipal services like bulky item pickup was effective at reducing mosquito proliferation in households. Association of bed canopy use with higher mosquito densities is unexpected, and may be a consequence of large local mosqui

BackgroundAttractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) are a promising new tool for malaria control as they can target outdoor-feeding mosquito populations, in contrast to current vector control tools which predominantly target indoor-feeding mosquitoes.MethodsIt was sought to estimate the potential impact of these new tools on Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in African settings by combining data from a recent entomological field trial of ATSBs undertaken in Mali with mathematical models of malaria transmission. The key parameter determining impact on the mosquito population is the excess mortality due to ATSBs, which is estimated from the observed reduction in mosquito catch numbers. A mathematical model capturing the life cycle of P. falciparum malaria in mosquitoes and humans and incorporating the excess mortality was used to estimate the potential epidemiological effect of ATSBs.ResultsThe entomological study showed a significant reduction of ~ 57% (95% CI 33-72%) in mosquito catch numbers, and a larger reduction of ~ 89% (95% CI 75-100%) in the entomological inoculation rate due to the fact that, in the presence of ATSBs, most mosquitoes do not live long enough to transmit malaria. The excess mortality due to ATSBs was estimated to be lower (mean 0.09 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.07-0.11 per day) than the bait feeding rate obtained from one-day staining tests (mean 0.34 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.28-0.38 per day).ConclusionsFrom epidemiological modelling, it was predicted that ATSBs could result in large reductions (> 30% annually) in prevalence and clinical incidence of malaria, even in regions with an existing high malaria burden. These results suggest that this new tool could provide a promising addition to existing vector control tools and result in significant reductions in malaria burden across a range of malaria-endemic settings.

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for arboviruses including dengue/yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika virus, infecting hundreds of millions of people annually. Unfortunately, traditional control methodologies are insufficient, so innovative control methods are needed. To complement existing measures, here we develop a molecular genetic control system termed precision-guided sterile insect technique (pgSIT) in Aedes aegypti. PgSIT uses a simple CRISPR-based approach to generate flightless females and sterile males that are deployable at any life stage. Supported by mathematical models, we empirically demonstrate that released pgSIT males can compete, suppress, and even eliminate mosquito populations. This platform technology could be used in the field, and adapted to many vectors, for controlling wild populations to curtail disease in a safe, confinable, and reversible manner.

CRISPR-based gene-drive systems, which copy themselves via gene conversion mediated by the homology-directed repair (HDR) pathway, have the potential to revolutionize vector control. However, mutant alleles generated by the competing non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) pathway, resistant to Cas9 cleavage, can interrupt the spread of gene-drive elements. We hypothesized that drives targeting genes essential for viability or reproduction also carrying recoded sequences that restore endogenous gene functionality should benefit from dominantly-acting maternal clearance of NHEJ alleles combined with recessive Mendelian culling processes. Here, we test split gene-drive (sGD) systems in Drosophila melanogaster that are inserted into essential genes required for viability (rab5, rab11, prosalpha2) or fertility (spo11). In single generation crosses, sGDs copy with variable efficiencies and display sex-biased transmission. In multigenerational cage trials, sGDs follow distinct drive trajectories reflecting their differential tendencies to induce target chromosome damage and/or lethal/sterile mosaic Cas9-dependent phenotypes, leading to inherently confinable drive outcomes.

Recent advances in gene-editing technologies have opened new avenues for genetic pest control strategies, in particular around the use of gene drives to suppress or modify pest populations. Significant uncertainty, however, surrounds the applicability of these strategies to novel target species, their efficacy in natural populations and their eventual safety and acceptability as control methods. In this article, we identify issues associated with the potential use of gene drives in agricultural systems, to control pests and diseases that impose a significant cost to agriculture around the world. We first review the need for innovative approaches and provide an overview of the most relevant biological and ecological traits of agricultural pests that could impact the outcome of gene drive approaches. We then describe the specific challenges associated with using gene drives in agricultural systems, as well as the opportunities that these environments may offer, focusing in particular on the advantages of high-threshold gene drives. Overall, we aim to provide a comprehensive view of the potential opportunities and the remaining uncertainties around the use of gene drives in agricultural systems.

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue and malaria, pose significant global health burdens. Unfortunately, current control methods based on insecticides and environmental maintenance have fallen short of eliminating the disease burden. Scalable, deployable, genetic-based solutions are sought to reduce the transmission risk of these diseases. Pathogen-blocking Wolbachia bacteria, or genome engineering-based mosquito control strategies including gene drives have been developed to address these problems, both requiring the release of modified mosquitoes into the environment. Here, we review the latest developments, notable similarities, and critical distinctions between these promising technologies and discuss their future applications for mosquito-borne disease control.

Forest-going populations are key to malaria transmission in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) and are therefore targeted for elimination efforts. Estimating the size of this population is essential for programs to assess, track and achieve their elimination goals. Leveraging data from three cross-sectional household surveys and one survey among forest-goers, the size of this high-risk population in a southern province of Lao PDR between December 2017 and November 2018 was estimated by two methods: population-based household surveys and capture-recapture. During the first month of the dry season, the first month of the rainy season, and the last month of the rainy season, respectively, 16.2% [14.7; 17.7], 9.3% [7.2; 11.3], and 5.3% [4.4; 6.1] of the adult population were estimated to have engaged in forest-going activities. The capture-recapture method estimated a total population size of 18,426 [16,529; 20,669] forest-goers, meaning 61.0% [54.2; 67.9] of the adult population had engaged in forest-going activities over the 12-month study period. This study demonstrates two methods for population size estimation to inform malaria research and programming. The seasonality and turnover within this forest-going population provide unique opportunities and challenges for control programs across the GMS as they work towards malaria elimination.

Engineered reproductive species barriers are useful for impeding gene flow and driving desirable genes into wild populations in a reversible threshold-dependent manner. However, methods to generate synthetic barriers are lacking in advanced eukaryotes. Here, to overcome this challenge, we engineer SPECIES (Synthetic Postzygotic barriers Exploiting CRISPR-based Incompatibilities for Engineering Species), an engineered genetic incompatibility approach, to generate postzygotic reproductive barriers. Using this approach, we create multiple reproductively isolated SPECIES and demonstrate their reproductive isolation and threshold-dependent gene drive capabilities in D. melanogaster. Given the near-universal functionality of CRISPR tools, this approach should be portable to many species, including insect disease vectors in which confinable gene drives could be of great practical utility.

Interest in gene drive technology has continued to grow as promising new drive systems have been developed in the lab and discussions are moving towards implementing field trials. The prospect of field trials requires models that incorporate a significant degree of ecological detail, including parameters that change over time in response to environmental data such as temperature and rainfall, leading to seasonal patterns in mosquito population density. Epidemiological outcomes are also of growing importance, as: i) the suitability of a gene drive construct for release will depend on its expected impact on disease transmission, and ii) initial field trials are expected to have a measured entomological outcome and a modeled epidemiological outcome. We present MGDrivE 2 (Mosquito Gene Drive Explorer 2): a significant development from the MGDrivE 1 simulation framework that investigates the population dynamics of a variety of gene drive architectures and their spread through spatially-explicit mosquito populations. Key strengths and fundamental improvements of the MGDrivE 2 framework are: i) the ability of parameters to vary with time and induce seasonal population dynamics, ii) an epidemiological module accommodating reciprocal pathogen transmission between humans and mosquitoes, and iii) an implementation framework based on stochastic Petri nets that enables efficient model formulation and flexible implementation. Example MGDrivE 2 simulations are presented to demonstrate the application of the framework to a CRISPR-based split gene drive system intended to drive a disease-refractory gene into a population in a confinable and reversible manner, incorporating time-varying temperature and rainfall data. The simulations also evaluate impact on human disease incidence and prevalence. Further documentation and use examples are provided in vignettes at the project's CRAN repository. MGDrivE 2 is freely available as an open-source R package on CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.or

BackgroundAttractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) are a promising new tool for malaria control as they can target outdoor-feeding mosquito populations, in contrast to current vector control tools which predominantly target indoor-feeding mosquitoes.MethodsIt was sought to estimate the potential impact of these new tools on Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in African settings by combining data from a recent entomological field trial of ATSBs undertaken in Mali with mathematical models of malaria transmission. The key parameter determining impact on the mosquito population is the excess mortality due to ATSBs, which is estimated from the observed reduction in mosquito catch numbers. A mathematical model capturing the life cycle of P. falciparum malaria in mosquitoes and humans and incorporating the excess mortality was used to estimate the potential epidemiological effect of ATSBs.ResultsThe entomological study showed a significant reduction of ~ 57% (95% CI 33-72%) in mosquito catch numbers, and a larger reduction of ~ 89% (95% CI 75-100%) in the entomological inoculation rate due to the fact that, in the presence of ATSBs, most mosquitoes do not live long enough to transmit malaria. The excess mortality due to ATSBs was estimated to be lower (mean 0.09 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.07-0.11 per day) than the bait feeding rate obtained from one-day staining tests (mean 0.34 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.28-0.38 per day).ConclusionsFrom epidemiological modelling, it was predicted that ATSBs could result in large reductions (> 30% annually) in prevalence and clinical incidence of malaria, even in regions with an existing high malaria burden. These results suggest that this new tool could provide a promising addition to existing vector control tools and result in significant reductions in malaria burden across a range of malaria-endemic settings.

BackgroundVector-borne diseases are a major cause of disease burden in Guayaquil, Ecuador, especially arboviruses spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Understanding which household characteristics and risk factors lead to higher Ae. aegypti densities and consequent disease risk can help inform and optimize vector control programs.MethodsCross-sectional entomological surveys were conducted in Guayaquil between 2013 and 2016, covering household demographics, municipal services, potential breeding containers, presence of Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae, and history of using mosquito control methods. A zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was fitted to data for estimating the household pupal index. An additional model assessed the factors of the most productive breeding sites across all of the households.ResultsOf surveyed households, 610 satisfied inclusion criteria. The final household-level model found that collection of large solid items (e.g., furniture and tires) and rainfall the week of and 2 weeks before collection were negatively correlated with average pupae per container, while bed canopy use, unemployment, container water volume, and the interaction between large solid collection and rainfall 2 weeks before the sampling event were positively correlated. Selection of these variables across other top candidate models with ∆AICc < 1 was robust, with the strongest effects from large solid collection and bed canopy use. The final container-level model explaining the characteristics of breeding sites found that contaminated water is positively correlated with Ae. aegypti pupae counts while breeding sites composed of car parts, furniture, sewerage parts, vases, were all negatively correlated.ConclusionsHaving access to municipal services like bulky item pickup was effective at reducing mosquito proliferation in households. Association of bed canopy use with higher mosquito densities is unexpected, and may be a consequence of large local mosqui

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for arboviruses including dengue/yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika virus, infecting hundreds of millions of people annually. Unfortunately, traditional control methodologies are insufficient, so innovative control methods are needed. To complement existing measures, here we develop a molecular genetic control system termed precision-guided sterile insect technique (pgSIT) in Aedes aegypti. PgSIT uses a simple CRISPR-based approach to generate flightless females and sterile males that are deployable at any life stage. Supported by mathematical models, we empirically demonstrate that released pgSIT males can compete, suppress, and even eliminate mosquito populations. This platform technology could be used in the field, and adapted to many vectors, for controlling wild populations to curtail disease in a safe, confinable, and reversible manner.

Recent advances in gene-editing technologies have opened new avenues for genetic pest control strategies, in particular around the use of gene drives to suppress or modify pest populations. Significant uncertainty, however, surrounds the applicability of these strategies to novel target species, their efficacy in natural populations and their eventual safety and acceptability as control methods. In this article, we identify issues associated with the potential use of gene drives in agricultural systems, to control pests and diseases that impose a significant cost to agriculture around the world. We first review the need for innovative approaches and provide an overview of the most relevant biological and ecological traits of agricultural pests that could impact the outcome of gene drive approaches. We then describe the specific challenges associated with using gene drives in agricultural systems, as well as the opportunities that these environments may offer, focusing in particular on the advantages of high-threshold gene drives. Overall, we aim to provide a comprehensive view of the potential opportunities and the remaining uncertainties around the use of gene drives in agricultural systems.

CRISPR-based genetic engineering tools aimed to bias sex ratios, or drive effector genes into animal populations, often integrate the transgenes into autosomal chromosomes. However, in species with heterogametic sex chromsomes (e.g. XY, ZW), sex linkage of endonucleases could be beneficial to drive the expression in a sex-specific manner to produce genetic sexing systems, sex ratio distorters, or even sex-specific gene drives, for example. To explore this possibility, here we develop a transgenic line of Drosophila melanogaster expressing Cas9 from the Y chromosome. We functionally characterize the utility of this strain for both sex selection and gene drive finding it to be quite effective. To explore its utility for population control, we built mathematical models illustrating its dynamics as compared to other state-of-the-art systems designed for both population modification and suppression. Taken together, our results contribute to the development of current CRISPR genetic control tools and demonstrate the utility of using sex-linked Cas9 strains for genetic control of animals.

As gene drive mosquito projects advance from contained laboratory testing to semi-field testing and small-scale field trials, there is a need to assess monitoring requirements to: i) assist with the effective introduction of the gene drive system at field sites, and ii) detect unintended spread of gene drive mosquitoes beyond trial sites, or resistance mechanisms and non-functional effector genes that spread within trial and intervention sites. This is of particular importance for non-localized gene drive projects, as the potential scale of intervention means that monitoring is expected to be more costly than research, development and deployment. Regarding monitoring needs for population replacement systems, lessons may be learned from experiences with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, and for population suppression systems, from experiences with releases of genetically sterile male mosquitoes. For population suppression systems, assessing monitoring requirements for tracking population size and detecting rare resistant alleles are priorities, while for population replacement systems, allele frequencies must be tracked, and pressing concerns include detection of gene drive alleles with non-functional effector genes, and resistance of pathogens to functional effector genes. For spread to unintended areas, open questions relate to the optimal density and placement of traps and frequency of sampling in order to detect gene drive alleles, drive-resistant alleles or non-functional effector genes while they can still be effectively managed. Invasive species management programs face similar questions, and lessons may be learned from these experiences. We explore these monitoring needs for gene drive mosquito projects progressing through the phases of pre-release, release and post-release.

BackgroundVector-borne diseases are a major cause of disease burden in Guayaquil, Ecuador, especially arboviruses spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Understanding which household characteristics and risk factors lead to higher Ae. aegypti densities and consequent disease risk can help inform and optimize vector control programs.MethodsCross-sectional entomological surveys were conducted in Guayaquil between 2013 and 2016, covering household demographics, municipal services, potential breeding containers, presence of Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae, and history of using mosquito control methods. A zero-truncated negative binomial regression model was fitted to data for estimating the household pupal index. An additional model assessed the factors of the most productive breeding sites across all of the households.ResultsOf surveyed households, 610 satisfied inclusion criteria. The final household-level model found that collection of large solid items (e.g., furniture and tires) and rainfall the week of and 2 weeks before collection were negatively correlated with average pupae per container, while bed canopy use, unemployment, container water volume, and the interaction between large solid collection and rainfall 2 weeks before the sampling event were positively correlated. Selection of these variables across other top candidate models with ∆AICc < 1 was robust, with the strongest effects from large solid collection and bed canopy use. The final container-level model explaining the characteristics of breeding sites found that contaminated water is positively correlated with Ae. aegypti pupae counts while breeding sites composed of car parts, furniture, sewerage parts, vases, were all negatively correlated.ConclusionsHaving access to municipal services like bulky item pickup was effective at reducing mosquito proliferation in households. Association of bed canopy use with higher mosquito densities is unexpected, and may be a consequence of large local mosqui

CRISPR-based genetic engineering tools aimed to bias sex ratios, or drive effector genes into animal populations, often integrate the transgenes into autosomal chromosomes. However, in species with heterogametic sex chromsomes (e.g. XY, ZW), sex linkage of endonucleases could be beneficial to drive the expression in a sex-specific manner to produce genetic sexing systems, sex ratio distorters, or even sex-specific gene drives, for example. To explore this possibility, here we develop a transgenic line of Drosophila melanogaster expressing Cas9 from the Y chromosome. We functionally characterize the utility of this strain for both sex selection and gene drive finding it to be quite effective. To explore its utility for population control, we built mathematical models illustrating its dynamics as compared to other state-of-the-art systems designed for both population modification and suppression. Taken together, our results contribute to the development of current CRISPR genetic control tools and demonstrate the utility of using sex-linked Cas9 strains for genetic control of animals.

Cas9/guide RNA (gRNA)-based gene drive systems are expected to play a transformative role in malaria elimination efforts., whether through population modification, in which the drive system contains parasite-refractory genes, or population suppression, in which the drive system induces a severe fitness load resulting in population decline or extinction. DNA sequence polymorphisms representing alternate alleles at gRNA target sites may confer a drive-resistant phenotype in individuals carrying them. Modeling predicts that, for observed levels of SGV at potential target sites and observed rates of de novo DRA formation, population modification strategies are uniquely resilient to DRAs. We conclude that gene drives can succeed when fitness costs incurred by drive-carrying mosquitoes are low enough to prevent strong positive selection for DRAs produced de novo or as part of the SGV and that population modification strategies are less prone to failure due to drive resistance.

Engineered reproductive species barriers are useful for impeding gene flow and driving desirable genes into wild populations in a reversible threshold-dependent manner. However, methods to generate synthetic barriers are lacking in advanced eukaryotes. Here, to overcome this challenge, we engineer SPECIES (Synthetic Postzygotic barriers Exploiting CRISPR-based Incompatibilities for Engineering Species), an engineered genetic incompatibility approach, to generate postzygotic reproductive barriers. Using this approach, we create multiple reproductively isolated SPECIES and demonstrate their reproductive isolation and threshold-dependent gene drive capabilities in D. melanogaster. Given the near-universal functionality of CRISPR tools, this approach should be portable to many species, including insect disease vectors in which confinable gene drives could be of great practical utility.

Interest in gene drive technology has continued to grow as promising new drive systems have been developed in the lab and discussions are moving towards implementing field trials. The prospect of field trials requires models that incorporate a significant degree of ecological detail, including parameters that change over time in response to environmental data such as temperature and rainfall, leading to seasonal patterns in mosquito population density. Epidemiological outcomes are also of growing importance, as: i) the suitability of a gene drive construct for release will depend on its expected impact on disease transmission, and ii) initial field trials are expected to have a measured entomological outcome and a modeled epidemiological outcome. We present MGDrivE 2 (Mosquito Gene Drive Explorer 2): a significant development from the MGDrivE 1 simulation framework that investigates the population dynamics of a variety of gene drive architectures and their spread through spatially-explicit mosquito populations. Key strengths and fundamental improvements of the MGDrivE 2 framework are: i) the ability of parameters to vary with time and induce seasonal population dynamics, ii) an epidemiological module accommodating reciprocal pathogen transmission between humans and mosquitoes, and iii) an implementation framework based on stochastic Petri nets that enables efficient model formulation and flexible implementation. Example MGDrivE 2 simulations are presented to demonstrate the application of the framework to a CRISPR-based split gene drive system intended to drive a disease-refractory gene into a population in a confinable and reversible manner, incorporating time-varying temperature and rainfall data. The simulations also evaluate impact on human disease incidence and prevalence. Further documentation and use examples are provided in vignettes at the project's CRAN repository. MGDrivE 2 is freely available as an open-source R package on CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.or

Forest-going populations are key to malaria transmission in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) and are therefore targeted for elimination efforts. Estimating the size of this population is essential for programs to assess, track and achieve their elimination goals. Leveraging data from three cross-sectional household surveys and one survey among forest-goers, the size of this high-risk population in a southern province of Lao PDR between December 2017 and November 2018 was estimated by two methods: population-based household surveys and capture-recapture. During the first month of the dry season, the first month of the rainy season, and the last month of the rainy season, respectively, 16.2% [14.7; 17.7], 9.3% [7.2; 11.3], and 5.3% [4.4; 6.1] of the adult population were estimated to have engaged in forest-going activities. The capture-recapture method estimated a total population size of 18,426 [16,529; 20,669] forest-goers, meaning 61.0% [54.2; 67.9] of the adult population had engaged in forest-going activities over the 12-month study period. This study demonstrates two methods for population size estimation to inform malaria research and programming. The seasonality and turnover within this forest-going population provide unique opportunities and challenges for control programs across the GMS as they work towards malaria elimination.

Recent advances in gene-editing technologies have opened new avenues for genetic pest control strategies, in particular around the use of gene drives to suppress or modify pest populations. Significant uncertainty, however, surrounds the applicability of these strategies to novel target species, their efficacy in natural populations and their eventual safety and acceptability as control methods. In this article, we identify issues associated with the potential use of gene drives in agricultural systems, to control pests and diseases that impose a significant cost to agriculture around the world. We first review the need for innovative approaches and provide an overview of the most relevant biological and ecological traits of agricultural pests that could impact the outcome of gene drive approaches. We then describe the specific challenges associated with using gene drives in agricultural systems, as well as the opportunities that these environments may offer, focusing in particular on the advantages of high-threshold gene drives. Overall, we aim to provide a comprehensive view of the potential opportunities and the remaining uncertainties around the use of gene drives in agricultural systems.

As gene drive mosquito projects advance from contained laboratory testing to semi-field testing and small-scale field trials, there is a need to assess monitoring requirements to: i) assist with the effective introduction of the gene drive system at field sites, and ii) detect unintended spread of gene drive mosquitoes beyond trial sites, or resistance mechanisms and non-functional effector genes that spread within trial and intervention sites. This is of particular importance for non-localized gene drive projects, as the potential scale of intervention means that monitoring is expected to be more costly than research, development and deployment. Regarding monitoring needs for population replacement systems, lessons may be learned from experiences with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, and for population suppression systems, from experiences with releases of genetically sterile male mosquitoes. For population suppression systems, assessing monitoring requirements for tracking population size and detecting rare resistant alleles are priorities, while for population replacement systems, allele frequencies must be tracked, and pressing concerns include detection of gene drive alleles with non-functional effector genes, and resistance of pathogens to functional effector genes. For spread to unintended areas, open questions relate to the optimal density and placement of traps and frequency of sampling in order to detect gene drive alleles, drive-resistant alleles or non-functional effector genes while they can still be effectively managed. Invasive species management programs face similar questions, and lessons may be learned from these experiences. We explore these monitoring needs for gene drive mosquito projects progressing through the phases of pre-release, release and post-release.

CRISPR-based gene-drive systems, which copy themselves via gene conversion mediated by the homology-directed repair (HDR) pathway, have the potential to revolutionize vector control. However, mutant alleles generated by the competing non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) pathway, resistant to Cas9 cleavage, can interrupt the spread of gene-drive elements. We hypothesized that drives targeting genes essential for viability or reproduction also carrying recoded sequences that restore endogenous gene functionality should benefit from dominantly-acting maternal clearance of NHEJ alleles combined with recessive Mendelian culling processes. Here, we test split gene-drive (sGD) systems in Drosophila melanogaster that are inserted into essential genes required for viability (rab5, rab11, prosalpha2) or fertility (spo11). In single generation crosses, sGDs copy with variable efficiencies and display sex-biased transmission. In multigenerational cage trials, sGDs follow distinct drive trajectories reflecting their differential tendencies to induce target chromosome damage and/or lethal/sterile mosaic Cas9-dependent phenotypes, leading to inherently confinable drive outcomes.

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the principal vector for arboviruses including dengue/yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika virus, infecting hundreds of millions of people annually. Unfortunately, traditional control methodologies are insufficient, so innovative control methods are needed. To complement existing measures, here we develop a molecular genetic control system termed precision-guided sterile insect technique (pgSIT) in Aedes aegypti. PgSIT uses a simple CRISPR-based approach to generate flightless females and sterile males that are deployable at any life stage. Supported by mathematical models, we empirically demonstrate that released pgSIT males can compete, suppress, and even eliminate mosquito populations. This platform technology could be used in the field, and adapted to many vectors, for controlling wild populations to curtail disease in a safe, confinable, and reversible manner.

Mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue and malaria, pose significant global health burdens. Unfortunately, current control methods based on insecticides and environmental maintenance have fallen short of eliminating the disease burden. Scalable, deployable, genetic-based solutions are sought to reduce the transmission risk of these diseases. Pathogen-blocking Wolbachia bacteria, or genome engineering-based mosquito control strategies including gene drives have been developed to address these problems, both requiring the release of modified mosquitoes into the environment. Here, we review the latest developments, notable similarities, and critical distinctions between these promising technologies and discuss their future applications for mosquito-borne disease control.

As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.

BackgroundAttractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) are a promising new tool for malaria control as they can target outdoor-feeding mosquito populations, in contrast to current vector control tools which predominantly target indoor-feeding mosquitoes.MethodsIt was sought to estimate the potential impact of these new tools on Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence in African settings by combining data from a recent entomological field trial of ATSBs undertaken in Mali with mathematical models of malaria transmission. The key parameter determining impact on the mosquito population is the excess mortality due to ATSBs, which is estimated from the observed reduction in mosquito catch numbers. A mathematical model capturing the life cycle of P. falciparum malaria in mosquitoes and humans and incorporating the excess mortality was used to estimate the potential epidemiological effect of ATSBs.ResultsThe entomological study showed a significant reduction of ~ 57% (95% CI 33-72%) in mosquito catch numbers, and a larger reduction of ~ 89% (95% CI 75-100%) in the entomological inoculation rate due to the fact that, in the presence of ATSBs, most mosquitoes do not live long enough to transmit malaria. The excess mortality due to ATSBs was estimated to be lower (mean 0.09 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.07-0.11 per day) than the bait feeding rate obtained from one-day staining tests (mean 0.34 per mosquito per day, seasonal range 0.28-0.38 per day).ConclusionsFrom epidemiological modelling, it was predicted that ATSBs could result in large reductions (> 30% annually) in prevalence and clinical incidence of malaria, even in regions with an existing high malaria burden. These results suggest that this new tool could provide a promising addition to existing vector control tools and result in significant reductions in malaria burden across a range of malaria-endemic settings.

Homing-based gene drives, engineered using CRISPR/Cas9, have been proposed to spread desirable genes throughout populations. However, invasion of such drives can be hindered by the accumulation of resistant alleles. To limit this obstacle, we engineer a confinable population modification home-and-rescue (HomeR) drive in Drosophila targeting an essential gene. In our experiments, resistant alleles that disrupt the target gene function were recessive lethal and therefore disadvantaged. We demonstrate that HomeR can achieve an increase in frequency in population cage experiments, but that fitness costs due to the Cas9 insertion limit drive efficacy. Finally, we conduct mathematical modeling comparing HomeR to contemporary gene drive architectures for population modification over wide ranges of fitness costs, transmission rates, and release regimens. HomeR could potentially be adapted to other species, as a means for safe, confinable, modification of wild populations.