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Extending the popular HAR model with additional information channels to forecast realized volatility of WTI futures prices, we show that machine learning-generated forecasts provide better forecasting quality and that portfolios that are constructed with these forecasts outperform their competing models resulting in economic gains. Analyzing the selection process, we show that information channels vary across forecasting horizon. Variable selection produces clusters and provides evidence that there are structural changes with regard to the significance of information channels.

Multiple small- to middle-scale cities, mostly located in northern China, became epidemic hotspots during the second wave of the spread of COVID-19 in early 2021. Despite qualitative discussions of potential social-economic causes, it remains unclear how this pattern could be accounted for from a quantitative approach. Through the development of an urban epidemic hazard index (EpiRank), we came up with a mathematical explanation for this phenomenon. The index is constructed from epidemic simulations on a multi-layer transportation network model on top of local SEIR transmission dynamics, which characterizes intra- and inter-city compartment population flow with a detailed mathematical description. Essentially, we argue that these highlighted cities possess greater epidemic hazards due to the combined effect of large regional population and small inter-city transportation. The proposed index, dynamic and applicable to different epidemic settings, could be a useful indicator for the risk assessment and response planning of urban epidemic hazards in China; the model framework is modularized and can be adapted for other nations without much difficulty.

Demiao Kong,1,2,* Yi Zhan,3,* Canzhao Liu,4 Yerong Hu,1 Yangzhao Zhou,1,4 Jiawen Luo,1 Lu Gu,1 Xinmin Zhou,1 Zhiwei Zhang1,4 1Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410011, China; 2Department of Thoracic Surgery, Guizhou Provincial People’s Hospital, Guiyang, Guizhou 550002, China; 3Department of Dermatology, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410011, China; 4Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Zhiwei ZhangDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No. 139 Middle Renmin Road, Changsha, Hunan 410011, People’s Republic of ChinaTel +86 13787083210 Email somebody_zhang@csu.edu.cnBackground: Emery-Dreifuss muscular dystrophy, caused by mutations in genes such as emerin (EMD) or lamin A/C (LMNA), is a disorder affecting the joints, muscles, and heart, with a wide spectrum of patient phenotypes including muscle wasting and cardiac conduction defects.Methods and results: Here we report a multi-generation family from the Hunan Province of China. Affected family members displayed an uncommon clinical presentation of serious cardiac conduction abnormalities at an early age and a high incidence of sudden cardiac death along with mild skeletal muscular atrophy and joint contracture. Clinical analysis of affected members provided evidence of X-linked recessive inheritance. Consequently, using Sanger sequencing of X chromosome exomes, we identified a novel duplication mutation (c.405dup/p.Asp136X) in the EMD gene as the cause for the disease in this family. This variant is a novel mutation that has not been previously reported in Pubmed, Clinvar or other cases reported in the Human Gene Mutation Database.Conclusion: Our finding expands the mutation spectrum of Emery-Dreifuss muscular dystrop

In his seminal work, Taylor (1963) argued that the geophysically relevant limit for dynamo action within the outer core is one of negligibly small inertia and viscosity in the magnetohydrodynamic equations. Within this limit, he showed the existence of a necessary condition, now well known as Taylor's constraint, which requires that the cylindrically-averaged Lorentz torque must everywhere vanish; magnetic fields that satisfy this condition are termed Taylor states. Taylor further showed that the requirement of this constraint being continuously satisfied through time prescribes the evolution of the geostrophic flow, the cylindrically-averaged azimuthal flow. We show that Taylor's original prescription for the geostrophic flow, as satisfying a given second order ordinary differential equation, is only valid for a small subset of Taylor states. An incomplete treatment of the boundary conditions renders his equation generally incorrect. Here, by taking proper account of the boundaries, we describe a generalisation of Taylor's method that enables correct evaluation of the instantaneous geostrophic flow for any 3D Taylor state. We present the first full-sphere examples of geostrophic flows driven by non-axisymmetric Taylor states. Although in axisymmetry the geostrophic flow admits a mild logarithmic singularity on the rotation axis, in the fully 3D case we show that this is absent and indeed the geostrophic flow appears to be everywhere regular., Comment: 29 Pages, 8 figures

In his seminal work, Taylor (1963) argued that the geophysically relevant limit for dynamo action within the outer core is one of negligibly small inertia and viscosity in the magnetohydrodynamic equations. Within this limit, he showed the existence of a necessary condition, now well known as Taylor's constraint, which requires that the cylindrically-averaged Lorentz torque must everywhere vanish; magnetic fields that satisfy this condition are termed Taylor states. Taylor further showed that the requirement of this constraint being continuously satisfied through time prescribes the evolution of the geostrophic flow, the cylindrically-averaged azimuthal flow. We show that Taylor's original prescription for the geostrophic flow, as satisfying a given second order ordinary differential equation, is only valid for a small subset of Taylor states. An incomplete treatment of the boundary conditions renders his equation generally incorrect. Here, by taking proper account of the boundaries, we describe a generalisation of Taylor's method that enables correct evaluation of the instantaneous geostrophic flow for any 3D Taylor state. We present the first full-sphere examples of geostrophic flows driven by non-axisymmetric Taylor states. Although in axisymmetry the geostrophic flow admits a mild logarithmic singularity on the rotation axis, in the fully 3D case we show that this is absent and indeed the geostrophic flow appears to be everywhere regular., Comment: 29 Pages, 8 figures