Search

In this paper, a methodology is proposed to quantitatively evaluate precipitation products for multiple purposes. Evaluation mainly focuses on rainfall characteristics relevant to hydrological or agricultural ap-plications: spatial distribution pattern, effect of aggregation over time, the capture of small-scale variability and seasonality, detection of dry spells and wet spells, and timing and volume of heavy rainfall events. Verification statistics were modified and metrics were reported for extreme weather performance, such as flood and drought monitoring. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over regions dominated by different weather systems or with different topographical structures. The latest versions of seven commonly available, high-resolution rainfall estimates have been evaluated by the method against daily data from 16 rain gauge stations over Tanzania, during 1998–2006. They were TRMM 3B42, CHIRPS, TAMSAT, CMORPH_RAW, CMORPH_BLD, WFDEI_CRU, and CPCU. All products, except for CMORPH_BLD and CPCU, were poorly correlated to gauge data at daily time scale with correlation coefficients < 0.5. Five-day aggregation was the minimum time scale that can be used for the products to reach an accuracy better than monthly-mean of gauge data. Their performance varied across different climatic or topographical regions and different rainfall seasons. Timing of precipitation was inaccurately estimated by all products, particularly for heavy rains, with less than 40% hits. The results of the evaluation procedure allow discrimination between available products and better selection of the product to be used for a specific application, such as crop insurance or flood early warning, under particular climatic conditions., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Water Resources

Satellite and reanalysis precipitation products perform poorly over regions with low-density ground observation networks. In order to improve space-dependent parameterization of precipitation estimation models in data-scarce environments, the delineation boundaries of precipitation regimes should be accurately identified. Existing approaches to characterize precipitation regimes by seasonal or other climatological properties do not account for small scale spatial-temporal variability. Precipitation time series can be used to account for this small-scale variability in regime classification. Unfortunately, precipitation products with global coverage perform poorly at small time scales over data scarce regions. A methodology of using satellite-based cloud-top temperature (CTT) time series as a proxy of precipitation time series for precipitation regime classification was developed, and its potential and uncertainty were analyzed. A precipitation regime in this study was defined on the basis of characteristic small-scale temporal distribution and variability of precipitation at a given place. Dynamic time warping was used to calculate the distance between two time series. Criteria to select the optimal temporal scale of time series for clustering and the number of clusters were also developed. The method was validated over Germany and applied to Tanzania, characterized by complex climatology and low density ground observations. This approach was evaluated against precipitation regime classification based on a satellite precipitation product. Results show that CTT outcompetes satellite-based precipitation for classification of precipitation regime classification. The CTT-based classification can be used as precursor to spatially adapted precipitation estimation algorithms where parameters are calibrated by gauge data or other ground-based precipitation observations, and parameterization can be used for satellite-precipitation estimates, precipitation forecasts in num, Water Resources, Mathematical Physics

In this paper, a methodology is proposed to quantitatively evaluate precipitation products for multiple purposes. Evaluation mainly focuses on rainfall characteristics relevant to hydrological or agricultural ap-plications: spatial distribution pattern, effect of aggregation over time, the capture of small-scale variability and seasonality, detection of dry spells and wet spells, and timing and volume of heavy rainfall events. Verification statistics were modified and metrics were reported for extreme weather performance, such as flood and drought monitoring. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over regions dominated by different weather systems or with different topographical structures. The latest versions of seven commonly available, high-resolution rainfall estimates have been evaluated by the method against daily data from 16 rain gauge stations over Tanzania, during 1998–2006. They were TRMM 3B42, CHIRPS, TAMSAT, CMORPH_RAW, CMORPH_BLD, WFDEI_CRU, and CPCU. All products, except for CMORPH_BLD and CPCU, were poorly correlated to gauge data at daily time scale with correlation coefficients < 0.5. Five-day aggregation was the minimum time scale that can be used for the products to reach an accuracy better than monthly-mean of gauge data. Their performance varied across different climatic or topographical regions and different rainfall seasons. Timing of precipitation was inaccurately estimated by all products, particularly for heavy rains, with less than 40% hits. The results of the evaluation procedure allow discrimination between available products and better selection of the product to be used for a specific application, such as crop insurance or flood early warning, under particular climatic conditions., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Water Resources

Satellite and reanalysis precipitation products perform poorly over regions with low-density ground observation networks. In order to improve space-dependent parameterization of precipitation estimation models in data-scarce environments, the delineation boundaries of precipitation regimes should be accurately identified. Existing approaches to characterize precipitation regimes by seasonal or other climatological properties do not account for small scale spatial-temporal variability. Precipitation time series can be used to account for this small-scale variability in regime classification. Unfortunately, precipitation products with global coverage perform poorly at small time scales over data scarce regions. A methodology of using satellite-based cloud-top temperature (CTT) time series as a proxy of precipitation time series for precipitation regime classification was developed, and its potential and uncertainty were analyzed. A precipitation regime in this study was defined on the basis of characteristic small-scale temporal distribution and variability of precipitation at a given place. Dynamic time warping was used to calculate the distance between two time series. Criteria to select the optimal temporal scale of time series for clustering and the number of clusters were also developed. The method was validated over Germany and applied to Tanzania, characterized by complex climatology and low density ground observations. This approach was evaluated against precipitation regime classification based on a satellite precipitation product. Results show that CTT outcompetes satellite-based precipitation for classification of precipitation regime classification. The CTT-based classification can be used as precursor to spatially adapted precipitation estimation algorithms where parameters are calibrated by gauge data or other ground-based precipitation observations, and parameterization can be used for satellite-precipitation estimates, precipitation forecasts in num, Water Resources, Mathematical Physics

In this study, we investigate a strategy to accelerate the data assimilation (DA) algorithm. Based on evaluations of the computational time, the analysis step of the assimilation turns out to be the most expensive part. After a study of the characteristics of the ensemble ash state, we propose a mask-state algorithm which records the sparsity information of the full ensemble state matrix and transforms the full matrix into a relatively small one. This will reduce the computational cost in the analysis step. Experimental results show the mask-state algorithm significantly speeds up the analysis step. Subsequently, the total amount of computing time for volcanic ash DA is reduced to an acceptable level. The mask-state algorithm is generic and thus can be embedded in any ensemble-based DA framework. Moreover, ensemble-based DA with the mask-state algorithm is promising and flexible, because it implements exactly the standard DA without any approximation and it realizes the satisfying performance without any change in the full model., Mathematical Physics

Volcanic eruptions release a large amount of volcanic ash, which can pose hazard to human and animal health, land transportation, and aviation safety. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are critical tools to provide advisory information and timely volcanic ash forecasts. Due to the complexity and the uncertainty of many dynamic processes involved in the volcanic ash distribution, even the most advanced VATDs today are not capable to reproduce the reality accurately. It is necessary to integrate available observations in the models for more accurate predictions by employing data assimilation techniques.In addition to a valid VATD, ash emissions, usually used as input so the model, are crucial for the forecasts of the locations and shapes of the ash cloud. In general, the eruption source parameters for the construction of the emission are poorly known, which include Plume Height (PH), Mass Eruption Rate (MER) and vertical distribution of the emission rate. Even when PH can be obtained from ground-based observations in some cases, the emission source computed from this PH and a MER empirically related to this PH remains highly uncertain. Not to mention the volcanoes which are unmonitored or hardly accessible, the PH can merely be retrieved from satellite data with a large uncertainty and temporal insufficiency. Fortunately, satellite instruments are able to observe the movement of an ash cloud with a global coverage. Therefore, this thesis focuses on the estimation of the volcanic ash emissions by assimilating Ash Mass Loadings (AMLs) retrieved from satellite data to improve the accuracy of forecasts. Among all available data assimilation approaches, Four Dimensional Variational assimilation (4D-Var) approach was chosen as a suitable one. 4D-Var seeks an optimal set of parameters, including model states, initial conditions and systematic parameters, by minimizing a cost function which combines the model simulations and observations over a period accord, Mathematical Physics

Using data assimilation (DA) to improve model forecast accuracy is a powerful approach that requires available observations. Infrared satellite measurements of volcanic ash mass loadings are often used as input observations for the assimilation scheme. However, because these primary satellite-retrieved data are often two-dimensional (2-D) and the ash plume is usually vertically located in a narrow band, directly assimilating the 2-D ash mass loadings in a three-dimensional (3-D) volcanic ash model (with an integral observational operator) can usually introduce large artificial/spurious vertical correlations. In this study, we look at an approach to avoid the artificial vertical correlations by not involving the integral operator. By integrating available data of ash mass loadings and cloud top heights, as well as data-based assumptions on thickness, we propose a satellite observational operator (SOO) that translates satellite-retrieved 2-D volcanic ash mass loadings to 3-D concentrations. The 3-D SOO makes the analysis step of assimilation comparable in the 3-D model space. Ensemble-based DA is used to assimilate the extracted measurements of ash concentrations. The results show that satellite DA with SOO can improve the estimate of volcanic ash state and the forecast. Comparison with both satellite-retrieved data and aircraft in situ measurements shows that the effective duration of the improved volcanic ash forecasts for the distal part of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano is about 6 h., Mathematical Physics

Remote sensing, as a powerful tool for monitoring atmospheric phenomena, has been playing an increasingly important role in inverse modeling. Remote sensing instruments measure quantities that often combine several state variables as one. This creates very strong correlations between the state variables that share the same observation variable. This may cause numerical problems resulting in a low convergence rate or inaccurate estimates in gradient-based variational assimilation if improper error statistics are used. In this paper, two criteria or scoring rules are proposed to quantify the numerical robustness of assimilating a specific set of remote sensing observations and to quantify the reliability of the estimates of the parameters. The criteria are derived by analyzing how the correlations are created via shared observation data and how they may influence the process of variational data assimilation. Experimental tests are conducted and show a good level of agreement with theory. The results illustrate the capability of the criteria to indicate the reliability of the assimilation process. Both criteria can be used with observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) and in combination with other verification scores., Mathematical Physics

Remote sensing, as a powerful tool for monitoring atmospheric phenomena, has been playing an increasingly important role in inverse modeling. Remote sensing instruments measure quantities that often combine several state variables as one. This creates very strong correlations between the state variables that share the same observation variable. This may cause numerical problems resulting in a low convergence rate or inaccurate estimates in gradient-based variational assimilation if improper error statistics are used. In this paper, two criteria or scoring rules are proposed to quantify the numerical robustness of assimilating a specific set of remote sensing observations and to quantify the reliability of the estimates of the parameters. The criteria are derived by analyzing how the correlations are created via shared observation data and how they may influence the process of variational data assimilation. Experimental tests are conducted and show a good level of agreement with theory. The results illustrate the capability of the criteria to indicate the reliability of the assimilation process. Both criteria can be used with observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) and in combination with other verification scores., Mathematical Physics

Volcanic eruptions release a large amount of volcanic ash, which can pose hazard to human and animal health, land transportation, and aviation safety. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are critical tools to provide advisory information and timely volcanic ash forecasts. Due to the complexity and the uncertainty of many dynamic processes involved in the volcanic ash distribution, even the most advanced VATDs today are not capable to reproduce the reality accurately. It is necessary to integrate available observations in the models for more accurate predictions by employing data assimilation techniques.In addition to a valid VATD, ash emissions, usually used as input so the model, are crucial for the forecasts of the locations and shapes of the ash cloud. In general, the eruption source parameters for the construction of the emission are poorly known, which include Plume Height (PH), Mass Eruption Rate (MER) and vertical distribution of the emission rate. Even when PH can be obtained from ground-based observations in some cases, the emission source computed from this PH and a MER empirically related to this PH remains highly uncertain. Not to mention the volcanoes which are unmonitored or hardly accessible, the PH can merely be retrieved from satellite data with a large uncertainty and temporal insufficiency. Fortunately, satellite instruments are able to observe the movement of an ash cloud with a global coverage. Therefore, this thesis focuses on the estimation of the volcanic ash emissions by assimilating Ash Mass Loadings (AMLs) retrieved from satellite data to improve the accuracy of forecasts. Among all available data assimilation approaches, Four Dimensional Variational assimilation (4D-Var) approach was chosen as a suitable one. 4D-Var seeks an optimal set of parameters, including model states, initial conditions and systematic parameters, by minimizing a cost function which combines the model simulations and observations over a period accord, Mathematical Physics

Using data assimilation (DA) to improve model forecast accuracy is a powerful approach that requires available observations. Infrared satellite measurements of volcanic ash mass loadings are often used as input observations for the assimilation scheme. However, because these primary satellite-retrieved data are often two-dimensional (2-D) and the ash plume is usually vertically located in a narrow band, directly assimilating the 2-D ash mass loadings in a three-dimensional (3-D) volcanic ash model (with an integral observational operator) can usually introduce large artificial/spurious vertical correlations. In this study, we look at an approach to avoid the artificial vertical correlations by not involving the integral operator. By integrating available data of ash mass loadings and cloud top heights, as well as data-based assumptions on thickness, we propose a satellite observational operator (SOO) that translates satellite-retrieved 2-D volcanic ash mass loadings to 3-D concentrations. The 3-D SOO makes the analysis step of assimilation comparable in the 3-D model space. Ensemble-based DA is used to assimilate the extracted measurements of ash concentrations. The results show that satellite DA with SOO can improve the estimate of volcanic ash state and the forecast. Comparison with both satellite-retrieved data and aircraft in situ measurements shows that the effective duration of the improved volcanic ash forecasts for the distal part of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano is about 6 h., Mathematical Physics

In this study, we investigate a strategy to accelerate the data assimilation (DA) algorithm. Based on evaluations of the computational time, the analysis step of the assimilation turns out to be the most expensive part. After a study of the characteristics of the ensemble ash state, we propose a mask-state algorithm which records the sparsity information of the full ensemble state matrix and transforms the full matrix into a relatively small one. This will reduce the computational cost in the analysis step. Experimental results show the mask-state algorithm significantly speeds up the analysis step. Subsequently, the total amount of computing time for volcanic ash DA is reduced to an acceptable level. The mask-state algorithm is generic and thus can be embedded in any ensemble-based DA framework. Moreover, ensemble-based DA with the mask-state algorithm is promising and flexible, because it implements exactly the standard DA without any approximation and it realizes the satisfying performance without any change in the full model., Mathematical Physics

In this paper, we reconstruct the vertical profile of volcanic ash emissions by assimilating satellite data and ground-based observations using a modified trajectory-based 4D-Var (Trj4DVar) approach. In our previous work, we found that the lack of vertical resolution in satellite ash column data can result in a poor estimation of the injection layer where the ash is emitted into the atmosphere. The injection layer is crucial for the forecast of volcanic ash clouds. To improve estimation, Trj4DVar was implemented, and it has shown increased performance in twin experiments using synthetic observations. However, there are some cases with real satellite data where Trj4DVar has difficulty in obtaining an accurate estimation of the injection layer. To remedy this, we propose a modification of Trj4DVar, test it with synthetic twin experiments, and evaluate real data performance. The results show that the modified Trj4DVar is able to accurately estimate the injection height (location of the maximal emission rate) by incorporating the plume height (top of the ash plume) and mass eruption rate data obtained from ground-based observations near the source into the assimilation system. This will produce more accurate emission estimations and more reliable forecasts of volcanic ash clouds. Also provided are two strategies on the preprocessing and proper use of satellite data., Mathematical Physics

The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved., Mathematical Physics

In this paper, we reconstruct the vertical profile of volcanic ash emissions by assimilating satellite data and ground-based observations using a modified trajectory-based 4D-Var (Trj4DVar) approach. In our previous work, we found that the lack of vertical resolution in satellite ash column data can result in a poor estimation of the injection layer where the ash is emitted into the atmosphere. The injection layer is crucial for the forecast of volcanic ash clouds. To improve estimation, Trj4DVar was implemented, and it has shown increased performance in twin experiments using synthetic observations. However, there are some cases with real satellite data where Trj4DVar has difficulty in obtaining an accurate estimation of the injection layer. To remedy this, we propose a modification of Trj4DVar, test it with synthetic twin experiments, and evaluate real data performance. The results show that the modified Trj4DVar is able to accurately estimate the injection height (location of the maximal emission rate) by incorporating the plume height (top of the ash plume) and mass eruption rate data obtained from ground-based observations near the source into the assimilation system. This will produce more accurate emission estimations and more reliable forecasts of volcanic ash clouds. Also provided are two strategies on the preprocessing and proper use of satellite data., Mathematical Physics

The forecast accuracy of distal volcanic ash clouds is important for providing valid aviation advice during volcanic ash eruption. However, because the distal part of volcanic ash plume is far from the volcano, the influence of eruption information on this part becomes rather indirect and uncertain, resulting in inaccurate volcanic ash forecasts in these distal areas. In our approach, we use real-life aircraft in situ observations, measured in the northwestern part of Germany during the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption, in an ensemble-based data assimilation system combined with a volcanic ash transport model to investigate the potential improvement on the forecast accuracy with regard to the distal volcanic ash plume. We show that the error of the analyzed volcanic ash state can be significantly reduced through assimilating real-life in situ measurements. After a continuous assimilation, it is shown that the aviation advice for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg can be significantly improved. We suggest that with suitable aircrafts measuring once per day across the distal volcanic ash plume, the description and prediction of volcanic ash clouds in these areas can be greatly improved., Mathematical Physics

Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

The 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash transport forecast in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be run with Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) such as plume height and mass eruption rate as input, and with data assimilation techniques to continuously improve the initial conditions of the forecast. Reliable and accurate ash measurements are crucial for providing a successful ash clouds advice. In this paper, simulated aircraft-based measurements, as one type of volcanic ash measurements, will be assimilated into a transport model to identify the potential benefit of this kind of observations in an assimilation system. The results show assimilating aircraft-based measurements can significantly improve the state of ash clouds, and further providing an improved forecast as aviation advice. We also show that for advice of aeroplane flying level, aircraft-based measurements should be preferably taken from this level to obtain the best performance on it. Furthermore it is shown that in order to make an acceptable advice for aviation decision makers, accurate knowledge about uncertainties of ESPs and measurements is of great importance., Applied mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

With the development of offshore wind farms, Voltage Source Converter based High Voltage Direct Current or Multi-terminal High Voltage Direct Current Technology (VSC-HVDC/MTDC) is becoming promising in the field of large-capacity and long-distance power transmission. However, its extreme vulnerability to DC contingencies remains a challenge in both research and practice. DC cable short circuit faults, or cable pole-to-pole faults, though less common than DC cable ground faults, can cause the most severe damage to the VSC as well as the whole system. In this thesis work, firstly a simple 3-terminal MTDC system is built and validated in PSCAD/EMTDC. Afterwards, based on the self-built MTDC system, DC cable short circuit faults with different locations are studied and analyzed in both theory and numerical simulation. Finally, a comprehensive protection scheme is proposed against such DC cable short circuit faults in the target MTDC system, combining the sub-schemes in fault detecting/locating principles, fault isolating tools and fault current limiting technologies. The coordination among the three parts is also taken into consideration. The scheme is later proven to be fast, selective, reliable, sensitive and robust in general. Moreover, the specific design procedure is further extended into a general design philosophy for DC cable short circuit fault protection in VSC-MTDC systems., Intelligent Electrical Power Grids, Electrical Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Volcanic ash forecasting is a crucial tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as plume height, total emission mass, and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Therefore, estimation of emission parameters using available observations through data assimilation could help to increase the accuracy of forecasts and provide reliable advisory information. This paper focuses on the use of satellite total-ash-column data in 4D-Var based assimilations. Experiments show that it is very difficult to estimate the vertical distribution of effective volcanic ash injection rates from satellite-observed ash columns using a standard 4D-Var assimilation approach. This paper addresses the ill-posed nature of the assimilation problem from the perspective of a spurious relationship. To reduce the influence of a spurious relationship created by a radiate observation operator, an adjoint-free trajectory-based 4D-Var assimilation method is proposed, which is more accurate to estimate the vertical profile of volcanic ash from volcanic eruptions. The method seeks the optimal vertical distribution of emission rates of a reformulated cost function that computes the total difference between simulated and observed ash columns. A 3D simplified aerosol transport model and synthetic satellite observations are used to compare the results of both the standard method and the new method., Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

The 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash transport forecast in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be run with Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) such as plume height and mass eruption rate as input, and with data assimilation techniques to continuously improve the initial conditions of the forecast. Reliable and accurate ash measurements are crucial for providing a successful ash clouds advice. In this paper, simulated aircraft-based measurements, as one type of volcanic ash measurements, will be assimilated into a transport model to identify the potential benefit of this kind of observations in an assimilation system. The results show assimilating aircraft-based measurements can significantly improve the state of ash clouds, and further providing an improved forecast as aviation advice. We also show that for advice of aeroplane flying level, aircraft-based measurements should be preferably taken from this level to obtain the best performance on it. Furthermore it is shown that in order to make an acceptable advice for aviation decision makers, accurate knowledge about uncertainties of ESPs and measurements is of great importance., Applied mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

With the development of offshore wind farms, Voltage Source Converter based High Voltage Direct Current or Multi-terminal High Voltage Direct Current Technology (VSC-HVDC/MTDC) is becoming promising in the field of large-capacity and long-distance power transmission. However, its extreme vulnerability to DC contingencies remains a challenge in both research and practice. DC cable short circuit faults, or cable pole-to-pole faults, though less common than DC cable ground faults, can cause the most severe damage to the VSC as well as the whole system. In this thesis work, firstly a simple 3-terminal MTDC system is built and validated in PSCAD/EMTDC. Afterwards, based on the self-built MTDC system, DC cable short circuit faults with different locations are studied and analyzed in both theory and numerical simulation. Finally, a comprehensive protection scheme is proposed against such DC cable short circuit faults in the target MTDC system, combining the sub-schemes in fault detecting/locating principles, fault isolating tools and fault current limiting technologies. The coordination among the three parts is also taken into consideration. The scheme is later proven to be fast, selective, reliable, sensitive and robust in general. Moreover, the specific design procedure is further extended into a general design philosophy for DC cable short circuit fault protection in VSC-MTDC systems., Intelligent Electrical Power Grids, Electrical Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Volcanic ash forecasting is a crucial tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as plume height, total emission mass, and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Therefore, estimation of emission parameters using available observations through data assimilation could help to increase the accuracy of forecasts and provide reliable advisory information. This paper focuses on the use of satellite total-ash-column data in 4D-Var based assimilations. Experiments show that it is very difficult to estimate the vertical distribution of effective volcanic ash injection rates from satellite-observed ash columns using a standard 4D-Var assimilation approach. This paper addresses the ill-posed nature of the assimilation problem from the perspective of a spurious relationship. To reduce the influence of a spurious relationship created by a radiate observation operator, an adjoint-free trajectory-based 4D-Var assimilation method is proposed, which is more accurate to estimate the vertical profile of volcanic ash from volcanic eruptions. The method seeks the optimal vertical distribution of emission rates of a reformulated cost function that computes the total difference between simulated and observed ash columns. A 3D simplified aerosol transport model and synthetic satellite observations are used to compare the results of both the standard method and the new method., Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Traffic management in cities with congestion is a big challenge with still unused opportunities. Intersection control is a corner stone but this should be done in an area-wide context. The dominant traffic process on urban roads is the traffic flow on the intersections. Spill back is a most important cause of malfunctioning networks. The methodology described in this paper gives a structured approach to develop scenarios for dynamic traffic management. The detection of spillback can be done by the analysis of probe vehicle data. Using the conflicts at the intersections as the basic elements of the network capacity analysis and the basis of traffic control, this paper develops a method to define control scenarios by evaluation and adaptation of local traffic control, buffering and metering strategies and rerouting. To support the task of traffic managers, the monitoring, traffic management scenarios and evaluation by simulation are integrated in a decision support system, iTides. This methodology is applied in a network in the CBD of Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province in P.R. China., Transport and Planning, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Traffic management in cities with congestion is a big challenge with still unused opportunities. Intersection control is a corner stone but this should be done in an area-wide context. The dominant traffic process on urban roads is the traffic flow on the intersections. Spill back is a most important cause of malfunctioning networks. The methodology described in this paper gives a structured approach to develop scenarios for dynamic traffic management. The detection of spillback can be done by the analysis of probe vehicle data. Using the conflicts at the intersections as the basic elements of the network capacity analysis and the basis of traffic control, this paper develops a method to define control scenarios by evaluation and adaptation of local traffic control, buffering and metering strategies and rerouting. To support the task of traffic managers, the monitoring, traffic management scenarios and evaluation by simulation are integrated in a decision support system, iTides. This methodology is applied in a network in the CBD of Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province in P.R. China., Transport and Planning, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

In the graduation lab Strategic Architectural Design Development (SADD), students will design a new UN Headquarters of Sustainability in New York City. Sustainable developments and measurements are being taken all over the world, in all sorts and kinds. Still many steps need to be taken and conflicting interests need to be solved, but the awareness and care for our environment has never been in better shape than today. This is a very promising and challenging development that would only work much more efficient and effective, if it were coordinated worldwide. The UN Headquarters of Sustainability, or UN Environmental Council, will be the home-base for this worldwide coordination of sustainable measurements. This project focuses on how green roof contributes to good environment and public space in sustainable design, Chair of Materialisation - Strategic Architectural Design Development, Architecture, Architecture

In the graduation lab Strategic Architectural Design Development (SADD), students will design a new UN Headquarters of Sustainability in New York City. Sustainable developments and measurements are being taken all over the world, in all sorts and kinds. Still many steps need to be taken and conflicting interests need to be solved, but the awareness and care for our environment has never been in better shape than today. This is a very promising and challenging development that would only work much more efficient and effective, if it were coordinated worldwide. The UN Headquarters of Sustainability, or UN Environmental Council, will be the home-base for this worldwide coordination of sustainable measurements. This project focuses on how green roof contributes to good environment and public space in sustainable design, Chair of Materialisation - Strategic Architectural Design Development, Architecture, Architecture

Different aspects of the traffic control system in the CBD of Changsha have been evaluated. A general issue is the safety conditions, which are evaluated qualitatively. The second issue is the low saturation flow observed on the intersections, that appear to be 20 to 30% lower than the ones in comparable situations in Europe or North America. Travel times could be determined rather well using GPS data from taxis. That method was validated using video observations. Bluetooth scanners have been tested for the measurement of travel time, but they appear less suited in urban areas. The paper evaluates the accuracy and reliability of the loop detectors in the traffic control system SCATS. Lastly, the signal timing of a 13- nodes network in the CBD of Changsha has been optimized with TRANSYT-14. This optimized (fixed time) control showed a significant better performance than the control by the SCATS system., Transport & Planning, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Different aspects of the traffic control system in the CBD of Changsha have been evaluated. A general issue is the safety conditions, which are evaluated qualitatively. The second issue is the low saturation flow observed on the intersections, that appear to be 20 to 30% lower than the ones in comparable situations in Europe or North America. Travel times could be determined rather well using GPS data from taxis. That method was validated using video observations. Bluetooth scanners have been tested for the measurement of travel time, but they appear less suited in urban areas. The paper evaluates the accuracy and reliability of the loop detectors in the traffic control system SCATS. Lastly, the signal timing of a 13- nodes network in the CBD of Changsha has been optimized with TRANSYT-14. This optimized (fixed time) control showed a significant better performance than the control by the SCATS system., Transport & Planning, Civil Engineering and Geosciences