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Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are modelled using a continuous-time stochastic process, and, depending on the application area of interest, this will typically take the form of a Markov jump process or an Itô diffusion process. Widespread use of these models is typically precluded by their computational complexity. In particular, performing exact fully Bayesian inference in either modelling framework is challenging due to the intractability of the observed data likelihood, necessitating the use of computationally intensive techniques such as particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (particle MCMC). It is proposed to increase the computational and statistical efficiency of this approach by leveraging the tractability of an inexpensive surrogate derived directly from either the jump or diffusion process. The surrogate is used in three ways: in the design of a gradient-based parameter proposal, to construct an appropriate bridge and in the first stage of a delayed-acceptance step. The resulting approach, which exactly targets the posterior of interest, offers substantial gains in efficiency over a standard particle MCMC implementation.

Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are modelled using a continuous-time stochastic process, and, depending on the application area of interest, this will typically take the form of a Markov jump process or an Itô diffusion process. Widespread use of these models is typically precluded by their computational complexity. In particular, performing exact fully Bayesian inference in either modelling framework is challenging due to the intractability of the observed data likelihood, necessitating the use of computationally intensive techniques such as particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (particle MCMC). It is proposed to increase the computational and statistical efficiency of this approach by leveraging the tractability of an inexpensive surrogate derived directly from either the jump or diffusion process. The surrogate is used in three ways: in the design of a gradient-based parameter proposal, to construct an appropriate bridge and in the first stage of a delayed-acceptance step. The resulting approach, which exactly targets the posterior of interest, offers substantial gains in efficiency over a standard particle MCMC implementation.

The Victorian Fire Services Commissioner has embarked on a program of research exploring anticipated changes across Victoria over the coming decade. Titled '2021', the research aims to identify key changes taking place in Victorian communities and describe the likely impacts on the emergency management sector. The paper is not intended to present an exhaustive list of possible changes and implications. A detailed report, which includes implications for emergency services organisations and the wider sector, is available from the Fire Services Commissioner's (FSC) website

The Victorian Fire Services Commissioner (FSC) has embarked on a program of research exploring anticipated changes across Victoria over the coming decade. Titled '2021', this research aims to build the evidence of change in Victorian communities, identify the drivers of change, and describe the likely impacts on the emergency management sector. This paper outlines some of the key economic and population changes that are taking place in regional Victoria and considers their implications for the emergency management sector (State-level policy and strategy) and emergency services organisations (service delivery, programs and local needs).

The Victorian Fire Services Commissioner (FSC) has embarked on a program of research exploring anticipated changes across Victoria over the coming decade. Titled '2021', this research aims to build the evidence of change in Victorian communities, identify the drivers of change, and describe the likely impacts on the emergency management sector. This paper outlines some of the key economic and population changes that are taking place in regional Victoria and considers their implications for the emergency management sector (State-level policy and strategy) and emergency services organisations (service delivery, programs and local needs).

Audio is muted from 00:24:16 to 00:28:09.; Video presentations of Ball State University and Burris Laboratory School faculty and staff discussing their "Green for Green" grant projects designed to promote recycling, resource conservation, clean communities, and environmental protection. Burris students are shown attending programs and singing about recycling. Also includes an interview of Burris students about the "Green" programs and what they learned., This archival material has been provided for educational purposes. Ball State University Libraries recognizes that some historic items may include offensive content. Our statement regarding objectionable content is available at: https://dmr.bsu.edu/digital/about