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Maritime transport is a vital sector for global trade and the world economy. Particularly for islands, there is also an important social dimension of this sector, since island communities strongly rely on it for a connection with the mainland and the transportation of goods and passengers. Furthermore, islands are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, as the rising sea level and extreme events are expected to induce severe impacts. Such hazards are anticipated to also affect the operations of the maritime transport sector by affecting either the port infrastructure or ships en route. The present study is an effort to better comprehend and assess the future risk of maritime transport disruption in six European islands and archipelagos, and it aims at supporting regional to local policy and decision-making. We employ state-of-the-art regional climate datasets and the widely used impact chain approach to identify the different components that might drive such risks. Larger islands (e.g., Corsica, Cyprus and Crete) are found to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change on maritime operations. Our findings also highlight the importance of adopting a low-emission pathway, since this will keep the risk of maritime transport disruption similar to present levels or even slightly decreased for some islands because of an enhanced adaptation capacity and advantageous demographic changes.

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union. NCEP reanalysis data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, at their Web site (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/). The Ufficio Idrografico of Venice provided sea level data. Solar data were obtained from the National Geophysical Data Center of the NOAA at their Web site (www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsolarradio.html). This study was partially supported by EU Sixth Framework Program (CIRCE) contract 036961 (GOCE) and the ENAC project (PTDC/AAC-CLI/103567/2008) funded by the IDL-FFCUL. We also acknowledge the contribution from the ESF MedCLIVAR program., This study explores the long-term frequency variability of high-surge events (HSEs) in the North Adriatic, the so-called acqua alta, which, particularly during autumn, cause flooding of the historical city center of Venice. The period 1948-2008, when hourly observations of sea level are available, is considered. The frequency of HSEs is correlated with the 11 year solar cycle, solar maxima being associated with a significant increase in the October-November-December HSE frequency. The seasonal geopotential height pattern at 1000 hPa (storm surge pattern; SSP) associated with the increased frequency of HSEs is identified for the whole time period and found to be similar to the positive phase of the main variability mode of the regional atmospheric circulation (empirical orthogonal function 1; EOF1). However, further analysis indicates that solar activity modulates the spatial patterns of the atmospheric circulation (EOF) and the favorable conditions for HSE occurrence (SSP). Under solar maxima, the occurrence of HSEs is enhanced by the main mode of regional atmospheric variability, namely, a large-scale wave train pattern that is symptomatic of storm track paths over northern Europe. Solar minima reveal a substantially different and less robust SSP, consisting of a meridionally oriented dipole with a preferred southward path of storm track activity, which is not associated with any dominant mode of atmospheric variability during low-solar periods. It is concluded that solar activity plays an indirect role in the frequency of HSEs by modulating the spatial patterns of the main modes of atmospheric regional variability, the favorable patterns for HSE occurrence, and their mutual relationships, so that constructive interaction between them is enhanced during solar maxima and inhibited in solar minima., EU, IDL-FFCUL, Depto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Fac. de Ciencias Físicas, TRUE, pub

Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies with inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible number of tracks of weak atmospheric features, which do not correspond to large-scale or mesoscale vortices and can differ significantly between CDTMs. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of significant numbers of uncertain tracks therein have long prohibited the production of a commonly accepted reference dataset of extratropical cyclone tracks. Such a dataset could allow comparable results on the analysis of storm track climatologies and could also contribute to the evaluation and improvement of CDTMs. To cover this gap, we present a new methodological approach that combines overlapping tracks from different CDTMs and produces composite tracks that concentrate the agreement of more than one CDTM. In this study we apply this methodology to the outputs of 10 well-established CDTMs which were originally applied to ERA5 reanalysis in the 42-year period of 1979-2020. We tested the sensitivity of our results to the spatiotemporal criteria that identify overlapping cyclone tracks, and for benchmarking reasons, we produced five reference datasets of subjectively tracked cyclones. Results show that climatological numbers of composite tracks are substantially lower than the ones of individual CDTMs, while benchmarking scores remain high (i.e., counting the number of subjectively tracked cyclones captured by the composite tracks). Our results show that composite tracks tend to describe more intense and longer-lasting cyclones with more distinguished early, mature and decay stages than the cyclone tracks produced by individual CDTMs. Ranking the composite tracks according to their

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better unders

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better unders

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).

© Author(s) 2021. Scientific activity by Davide Zanchettin and Georg Umgiesser was performed in the research programme Venezia2021, with the contribution of the superintendency for the Public Works of Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige, and Friuli Venezia Giulia, provided through the concessionary of State Consorzio Venezia Nuova and coordinated by CORILA. Marco Reale has been supported in this work by the OGS and Cineca under HPC-TRES award number 2015- 07 and by the project FAIRSEA (Fisheries in the Adriatic Region – a Shared Ecosystem Approach) funded by the 2014–2020 Interreg V-A Italy–Croatia CBC programme (standard project ID 10046951). The work of Mirko Orlic has been supported by the ´ Croatian Science Foundation under the project IP-2018-01-9849 (MAUD). David Barriopedro was supported by the Spanish government through the PALEOSTRAT (CGL2015-69699-R) and JEDiS (RTI2018-096402-BI00) projects., Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission s, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO), CINECA, Italy, project FAIRSEA (Fisheries in the Adriatic Region -a Shared Ecosystem Approach) - 2014-2020 Interreg V-A Italy-Croatia CBC programme, Croatian Science Foundation, Ontario Graduate Scholarship, Depto. de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Fac. de Ciencias Físicas, TRUE, pub

The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by

The fate of the beaches around the world has paramount importance as they are one of the main assets for touristic activities and act as a natural barrier for coastal protection in front of marine storms. Climate change could put them at risk as sea levels rise and changes in the wave characteristics may dramatically modify their shape. In this work, a new methodology has been developed to determine the flooding of sandy beaches due to changes in sea level and waves. The methodology allows a cost-effective and yet accurate estimation of the wave runup for a wide range of beach equilibrium profiles and for different seagrass coverage. This, combined with regional projections of sea level and wave evolution, has allowed a quantification of the future total water level and coastline retreat for 869 beaches across the Balearic Islands for the next decades as a function of greenhouse gases emission scenario. The most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) at the end of the century yields an averaged percentage of flooded area of 66% under mean conditions which increases up to 86% under extreme conditions. Moreover, 72 of the 869 beaches of the region would permanently disappear while 314 would be completely flooded during storm episodes. Under a moderate scenario of emissions (RCP4.5), 37 beaches would permanently disappear while 254 would disappear only during storm episodes. In both cases, the average permanent loss of beach surface at the end of the century would be larger than 50%, rising over 80% during storm conditions. The results obtained for the Balearic Islands can be extrapolated to the rest of the Mediterranean as the beaches in all the regions have similar characteristics and will be affected by similar changes in sea level and wave climate. These projections indicate that adaptation plans for beach areas should be put in place as soon as possible.

Storm surges are one of the main drivers for extreme flooding at the coastal areas. Such events can be characterized with the maximum level in an extreme storm surge event (surge peak), as well as the duration of the event. Surge projections come from a barotropic model for the 1950–2100 period, under a severe climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) at the northeastern Spanish coast. The relationship of extreme storm surges to three large-scale climate patterns was assessed: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic Pattern (EAWR), and Scandinavian Pattern (SC). The statistical model was built using two different strategies. In Strategy #1, the joint probability density was characterized by a moving-average series of stationary Archimedean copula, whereas in Strategy #2, the joint probability density was characterized by a non-stationary probit copula. The parameters of the marginal distribution and the copula were defined with generalized additive models. The analysis showed that the mean values of surge peak and event duration were constant and were independent of the proposed climate patterns. However, the values of NAO and SC influenced the threshold and the storminess of extreme events. According to Strategy #1, the variance of the surge peak and event duration increased with a fast shift of negative SC and a positive NAO, respectively. Alternatively, Strategy #2 showed that the variance of the surge peak increased with a positive EAWR. Both strategies coincided in that the joint dependence of the maximum surge level and the duration of extreme surges ranged from low to medium degree. Its mean value was stationary, and its variability was linked to the geographical location. Finally, Strategy #2 helped determine that this dependence increased with negative NAO., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)

The increasing demand for energy and the impacts generated by CO2 emissions make it necessary to harness all possible renewable sources of energy, like wave power. Nevertheless, climate change may generate significant variations in the amount of wave energy available in a certain area. The aim of this paper is to study potential changes in the wave energy resource in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco due to climate change. To do this, wave datasets obtained by four institutes during the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in the Mediterranean Region (Med-CORDEX) project are used. The future conditions correspond to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results show that projected future wave power is very similar to that of the present considering the whole area, although at some specific points there are slight changes that are more evident for the RCP8.5 scenario. Another remarkable result of this study is the significant increase of the temporal variability of wave power in future scenarios, in particular for RCP8.5. This will be detrimental for the deployment of wave energy converters in this area since their energy output will be more unevenly distributed over time, thus decreasing their efficiency., The authors acknowledge the CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, (Italy), CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, France), GUF (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Germany) and LMD (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, France) for generating the datasets used in this study. The support of the Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca del Departament d’Economia i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya (Ref 2014SGR1253) is also acknowledged., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (published version)

In this study, hemispheric climatologies of explosive cyclones (ECs) derived using a set of different cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) are analysed. The aim is to evaluate trends and regional characteristics of ECs discussing consensus and disagreement among methods. Areas of both hemispheres characterised by relatively frequent presence of ECs are considered, with particular emphasis on their extremes. Despite the considerable differences (up to 21-38% in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere) in the total number of ECs detected by the various CDTM, this study provides evidence of a good level of agreement among methods concerning spatial distribution of cyclogenesis, track density, their main characteristics (depth, speed, duration, deepening and normalised deepening rate), seasonality and trends. ECs are shown to be deeper, faster and long-lasting with respect to ordinary cyclones in both hemispheres. Southern Hemisphere ECs are typically more intense than those in Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, ECs in the Northern Hemisphere are characterised by a stronger deepening rate over 6h and 24h than in the Southern Hemisphere. Atlantic ECs are usually faster, deeper and characterised by higher deepening and geostrophically adjusted deepening rate than in the Pacific. This is particularly true in the eastern part of the basin. In both basins, ECs in the western side are characterised by higher normalised deepening rates than in the eastern parts. In the Southern Hemisphere, ECs close to Southern Africa and Australia are usually faster, deeper and with higher deepening rates than those close to southern South America. On the other hand, ECs close to southern South America and Southern Africa are characterised by higher normalised deepening rates and duration with respect to ECs close to Australia.

In this study, hemispheric climatologies of explosive cyclones (ECs) derived using a set of different cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) are analysed. The aim is to evaluate trends and regional characteristics of ECs discussing consensus and disagreement among methods. Areas of both hemispheres characterised by relatively frequent presence of ECs are considered, with particular emphasis on their extremes. Despite the considerable differences (up to 21-38% in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere) in the total number of ECs detected by the various CDTM, this study provides evidence of a good level of agreement among methods concerning spatial distribution of cyclogenesis, track density, their main characteristics (depth, speed, duration, deepening and normalised deepening rate), seasonality and trends. ECs are shown to be deeper, faster and long-lasting with respect to ordinary cyclones in both hemispheres. Southern Hemisphere ECs are typically more intense than those in Northern Hemisphere. On the other hand, ECs in the Northern Hemisphere are characterised by a stronger deepening rate over 6h and 24h than in the Southern Hemisphere. Atlantic ECs are usually faster, deeper and characterised by higher deepening and geostrophically adjusted deepening rate than in the Pacific. This is particularly true in the eastern part of the basin. In both basins, ECs in the western side are characterised by higher normalised deepening rates than in the eastern parts. In the Southern Hemisphere, ECs close to Southern Africa and Australia are usually faster, deeper and with higher deepening rates than those close to southern South America. On the other hand, ECs close to southern South America and Southern Africa are characterised by higher normalised deepening rates and duration with respect to ECs close to Australia.

This study aims to assess the skill of regional climate models (RCMs) at reproducing the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones. Seven RCMs are considered, five of which were also coupled with an oceanic model. All simulations were forced at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for a common 20-year period (1989-2008). Six different cyclone tracking methods have been applied to all twelve RCM simulations and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis in order to assess the RCMs from the perspective of different cyclone definitions. All RCMs reproduce the main areas of high cyclone occurrence in the region south of the Alps, in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Seas, as well as in the areas close to Cyprus and to Atlas mountains. The RCMs tend to underestimate intense cyclone occurrences over the Mediterranean Sea and reproduce 24-40 % of these systems, as identified in the reanalysis. The use of grid nudging in one of the RCMs is shown to be beneficial, reproducing about 60 % of the intense cyclones and keeping a better track of the seasonal cycle of intense cyclogenesis. Finally, the most intense cyclones tend to be similarly reproduced in coupled and uncoupled model simulations, suggesting that modeling atmosphere-ocean coupled processes has only a weak impact on the climatology and intensity of Mediterranean cyclones.

This study aims to assess the skill of regional climate models (RCMs) at reproducing the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones. Seven RCMs are considered, five of which were also coupled with an oceanic model. All simulations were forced at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for a common 20-year period (1989-2008). Six different cyclone tracking methods have been applied to all twelve RCM simulations and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis in order to assess the RCMs from the perspective of different cyclone definitions. All RCMs reproduce the main areas of high cyclone occurrence in the region south of the Alps, in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Seas, as well as in the areas close to Cyprus and to Atlas mountains. The RCMs tend to underestimate intense cyclone occurrences over the Mediterranean Sea and reproduce 24-40 % of these systems, as identified in the reanalysis. The use of grid nudging in one of the RCMs is shown to be beneficial, reproducing about 60 % of the intense cyclones and keeping a better track of the seasonal cycle of intense cyclogenesis. Finally, the most intense cyclones tend to be similarly reproduced in coupled and uncoupled model simulations, suggesting that modeling atmosphere-ocean coupled processes has only a weak impact on the climatology and intensity of Mediterranean cyclones.

Harbours are essential infrastructures for economic activity that are susceptible to impacts from climate change driven processes, like sea level rise (SLR), or alterations in wave patterns. In this paper, the impact of climate change on wave agitation in ports (oscillations due to wind waves) and, therefore, on port operability is analyzed. This is carried out through a numerical model suite, considering the RCP8.5 scenario to project changes in wave fields, and three values of SLR. The study is particularized for the port of Barcelona (NW Mediterranean), but the used methodology can be applied to other harbours. Results suggest that changes due only to waves will be minimal and with a general trend to slightly decrease wave agitation. On the contrary, the effect of SLR and the associated increase of water depth will favor the penetration of waves within the harbour, leading to a certain reduction of port operability, the magnitude of which will depend on the SLR value. However, the complexity of wave patterns within the harbours, due to multiple reflections of waves on port structures, implies that the reduction of operability strongly varies according to the position and orientation of the berthing zones inside the harbour., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (author's final draft)

Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (author's final draft)

The Mediterranean storm track constitutes a well-defined branch of the North Hemisphere storm track and is characterised by small but intense features and frequent cyclogenesis. The goal of this study is to assess the level of consensus among cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs), to identify robust features and to explore sources of disagreement. A set of 14 CDTMs has been applied for computing the climatology of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region using the ERA-Interim dataset for the period 1979-2008 as common testbed. Results show large differences in actual cyclone numbers identified by different methods, but a good level of consensus on the interpretation of results regarding location, annual cycle and trends of cyclone tracks. Cyclogenesis areas such as the north-western Mediterranean, North Africa, north shore of the Levantine basin, as well as the seasonality of their maxima are robust features on which methods show a substantial agreement. Differences among methods are greatly reduced if cyclone numbers are transformed to a dimensionless index, which, in spite of disagreement on mean values and interannual variances of cyclone numbers, reveals a consensus on variability, sign and significance of trends. Further, excluding 'weak' and 'slow' cyclones from the computation of cyclone statistics improves the agreement among CDTMs. Results show significant negative trends of cyclone frequency in spring and positive trends in summer, whose contrasting effects compensate each other at annual scale, so that there is no significant long-term trend in total cyclone numbers in the Mediterranean basin in the 1979-2008 period.

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0972-9, The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems. However, ports have always been vulnerable to weather extremes and climate change could enhance such occurrences at timescales comparable to the design lifetime of harbour engineering structures. The analysis in this paper starts with the main climatic variables affecting harbour engineering and exploitation. It continues with a review of the available projections for such variables first at global scale and then at a regional scale (Catalan coast in the western Mediterranean) as a study case for similar environments in the planet. The detailed assessment of impacts starts from downscaled projections for mean sea level and wave storms (wind not considered in the paper). This is followed by an analysis of the port operations and infrastructure performance that are relevant from a climate perspective. The key climatic factors here considered are relative sea level, wave storm features (height, period, direction and duration) and their combined effect, which is expected to produce the highest impacts. The paper ends with a discussion and some examples of analyses aiming at port adaptation to future climate change., Peer Reviewed, Postprint (author's final draft)

The blooms of jellyfish have repeatedly affected highly productive aquaculture operations worldwide and are currently recognized as a factor that negatively impacts marine fish farming. Nevertheless, information in the literature about the interactions between jellyfish and caged fish remains limited, both in the number of incidents reported and in the experiments conducted to better understand the effects of the cnidarians on fish. The present work was conceived as an attempt to fill this lack of awareness. A perception survey (20 questions) was performed in 21 Mediterranean offshore aquaculture facilities from Italy, Spain, Malta and Tunisia (chapter 1). The interview was organized in 3 sets of questions: general knowledge on jellyfish and their blooms, JB qualitative impacts on farm’s activity and JB quantitative impacts. The main results obtained from the surveys showed that fish farmers believed that the frequency of jellyfish blooms has increased during the last 10 years, and recognised significant impact of these organisms on different marine human activities, mainly tourism but also aquaculture. Moreover, high percentage of interviewees agreed on the significant economic impact that jellyfish may have on their own sector. However, just 20% of them recognised to have had problems with jellyfish in their facilities. The information gathered allowed us to identify the first records of fish mortality events due to jellyfish blooms in Mediterranean fish farms. [...]

The Mediterranean storm track constitutes a well-defined branch of the North Hemisphere storm track and is characterised by small but intense features and frequent cyclogenesis. The goal of this study is to assess the level of consensus among cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs), to identify robust features and to explore sources of disagreement. A set of 14 CDTMs has been applied for computing the climatology of cyclones crossing the Mediterranean region using the ERA-Interim dataset for the period 1979-2008 as common testbed. Results show large differences in actual cyclone numbers identified by different methods, but a good level of consensus on the interpretation of results regarding location, annual cycle and trends of cyclone tracks. Cyclogenesis areas such as the north-western Mediterranean, North Africa, north shore of the Levantine basin, as well as the seasonality of their maxima are robust features on which methods show a substantial agreement. Differences among methods are greatly reduced if cyclone numbers are transformed to a dimensionless index, which, in spite of disagreement on mean values and interannual variances of cyclone numbers, reveals a consensus on variability, sign and significance of trends. Further, excluding 'weak' and 'slow' cyclones from the computation of cyclone statistics improves the agreement among CDTMs. Results show significant negative trends of cyclone frequency in spring and positive trends in summer, whose contrasting effects compensate each other at annual scale, so that there is no significant long-term trend in total cyclone numbers in the Mediterranean basin in the 1979-2008 period.

This study aims to assess the skill of regional climate models (RCMs) at reproducing the climatology of Mediterranean cyclones. Seven RCMs are considered, five of which were also coupled with an oceanic model. All simulations were forced at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for a common 20-year period (1989–2008). Six different cyclone tracking methods have been applied to all twelve RCM simulations and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis in order to assess the RCMs from the perspective of different cyclone definitions. All RCMs reproduce the main areas of high cyclone occurrence in the region south of the Alps, in the Adriatic, Ionian and Aegean Seas, as well as in the areas close to Cyprus and to Atlas mountains. The RCMs tend to underestimate intense cyclone occurrences over the Mediterranean Sea and reproduce 24–40 % of these systems, as identified in the reanalysis. The use of grid nudging in one of the RCMs is shown to be beneficial, reproducing about 60 % of the intense cyclones and keeping a better track of the seasonal cycle of intense cyclogenesis. Finally, the most intense cyclones tend to be similarly reproduced in coupled and uncoupled model simulations, suggesting that modeling atmosphere–ocean coupled processes has only a weak impact on the climatology and intensity of Mediterranean cyclones. This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Med-CORDEX, an international coordinated initiative dedicated to the multi-component regional climate modelling (atmosphere, ocean, land surface, river) of the Mediterranean under the umbrella of HyMeX, CORDEX, and Med-CLIVAR and coordinated by Samuel Somot, Paolo Ruti, Erika Coppola, Gianmaria Sannino, Bodo Ahrens, and Gabriel Jordà.

The eastern Mediterranean transient (EMT) was caused by a combination of high‐salinity waters intruding into the Aegean Sea and the two particularly strong winters of 1991–1992 and 1992–1993. The approach in this chapter is to search for specific signatures in the historic hydrographic observations, which date back to 1910. To deal with the problem that up into the 1950s the data not only are of limited precision but also have gaps of about 20 years, it is advantageous to consider the fact that the evolution of the actual EMT is rather well documented over a similar time span. The chapter begins by outlining the characteristics of the current EMT. Thereafter, a selection of suitable hydrographic observations among the available historic data is provided to compare these with signatures expected from the evolution of the actual EMT.

The eastern Mediterranean transient (EMT) was caused by a combination of high‐salinity waters intruding into the Aegean Sea and the two particularly strong winters of 1991–1992 and 1992–1993. The approach in this chapter is to search for specific signatures in the historic hydrographic observations, which date back to 1910. To deal with the problem that up into the 1950s the data not only are of limited precision but also have gaps of about 20 years, it is advantageous to consider the fact that the evolution of the actual EMT is rather well documented over a similar time span. The chapter begins by outlining the characteristics of the current EMT. Thereafter, a selection of suitable hydrographic observations among the available historic data is provided to compare these with signatures expected from the evolution of the actual EMT.

The eastern Mediterranean transient (EMT) was caused by a combination of high‐salinity waters intruding into the Aegean Sea and the two particularly strong winters of 1991–1992 and 1992–1993. The approach in this chapter is to search for specific signatures in the historic hydrographic observations, which date back to 1910. To deal with the problem that up into the 1950s the data not only are of limited precision but also have gaps of about 20 years, it is advantageous to consider the fact that the evolution of the actual EMT is rather well documented over a similar time span. The chapter begins by outlining the characteristics of the current EMT. Thereafter, a selection of suitable hydrographic observations among the available historic data is provided to compare these with signatures expected from the evolution of the actual EMT.

The eastern Mediterranean transient (EMT) was caused by a combination of high‐salinity waters intruding into the Aegean Sea and the two particularly strong winters of 1991–1992 and 1992–1993. The approach in this chapter is to search for specific signatures in the historic hydrographic observations, which date back to 1910. To deal with the problem that up into the 1950s the data not only are of limited precision but also have gaps of about 20 years, it is advantageous to consider the fact that the evolution of the actual EMT is rather well documented over a similar time span. The chapter begins by outlining the characteristics of the current EMT. Thereafter, a selection of suitable hydrographic observations among the available historic data is provided to compare these with signatures expected from the evolution of the actual EMT.

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Mediterranean climate change during the last 60 years is based on homogenized daily temperature and quality controlled precipitation observational data and gridded products. The estimated changes indicate statistically significant Mediterranean summer temperature increase and a reduction in winter precipitation in specific areas. Reconstructions of Mediterranean sea level suggest a rise of some 150 mm since the beginning of the nineteenth century. A 20 years long reanalysis (1985–2007) was produced, showing long term temperature variability and a positive salinity trend in the ocean layers from the surface to 1,500 m depth. A prominent increase in summer temperature extremes is found in the whole Mediterranean region, while warm bias in the mid twentieth century station data is removed by homogenization. No basin-wide trends in precipitation and droughts are found for the second half of the twentieth century, while trends in extreme winds are largely negative, as are those of the related cyclones and cut-off-lows. The role of large scale pressure patterns like the NAO for variabilities and trends is discussed for the different parameters considered.

Mediterranean climate change during the last 60 years is based on homogenized daily temperature and quality controlled precipitation observational data and gridded products. The estimated changes indicate statistically significant Mediterranean summer temperature increase and a reduction in winter precipitation in specific areas. Reconstructions of Mediterranean sea level suggest a rise of some 150 mm since the beginning of the nineteenth century. A 20 years long reanalysis (1985–2007) was produced, showing long term temperature variability and a positive salinity trend in the ocean layers from the surface to 1,500 m depth. A prominent increase in summer temperature extremes is found in the whole Mediterranean region, while warm bias in the mid twentieth century station data is removed by homogenization. No basin-wide trends in precipitation and droughts are found for the second half of the twentieth century, while trends in extreme winds are largely negative, as are those of the related cyclones and cut-off-lows. The role of large scale pressure patterns like the NAO for variabilities and trends is discussed for the different parameters considered.

Located between subtropical and mid-latitude climates, the Mediterranean region acts as a transition area and is very sensitive to global climate change: As global temperatures have risen, the Mediterranean region has warmed, particularly in the west and in the summer, where surface temperatures in some locations increased at a rate greater than 0.4°C per decade during the second half of the twentieth century. Model simulations give a collective picture of substantial drying and warming of the Mediterranean region in the future, especially summer, with average precipitation expected to decrease by 25-30% and temperatures expected to rise by 4°-5°C by the end of this century, approximately. These changes will likely be accompanied by increased intensity in heat waves and dry spells along with important changes in Mediterranean water masses, which will become warmer and saltier. This future climate change can pose very serious problems to ecosystems and human societies.