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Machine learning (ML) techniques have gained popularity in the neuroimaging field due to their potential for classifying neuropsychiatric disorders. However, the diagnostic predictive power of the existing algorithms has been limited by small sample sizes, lack of representativeness, data leakage, and/or overfitting. Here, we overcome these limitations with the largest multi-site sample size to date (N = 5365) to provide a generalizable ML classification benchmark of major depressive disorder (MDD) using shallow linear and non-linear models. Leveraging brain measures from standardized ENIGMA analysis pipelines in FreeSurfer, we were able to classify MDD versus healthy controls (HC) with a balanced accuracy of around 62%. But after harmonizing the data, e.g., using ComBat, the balanced accuracy dropped to approximately 52%. Accuracy results close to random chance levels were also observed in stratified groups according to age of onset, antidepressant use, number of episodes and sex. Future studies incorporating higher dimensional brain imaging/phenotype features, and/or using more advanced machine and deep learning methods may yield more encouraging prospects.

Task-free brain activity exhibits spontaneous fluctuations between functional states, characterized by synchronized activation patterns in distributed resting-state (RS) brain networks. The temporal dynamics of the networks’ electrophysiological signatures reflect individual variations in brain activity and connectivity linked to mental states and cognitive functions and can predict or monitor vulnerability to develop psychiatric or neurological disorders. In particular, RS alpha fluctuations modulate perceptual sensitivity, attentional shifts, and cognitive control, and could therefore reflect a neural correlate of increased vulnerability to sensory distortions, including the proneness to hallucinatory experiences. We recorded 5 min of RS EEG from 33 non-clinical individuals varying in hallucination proneness (HP) to investigate links between task-free alpha dynamics and vulnerability to hallucinations. To this end, we used a dynamic brain state allocation method to identify five recurrent alpha states together with their spatiotemporal dynamics and most active brain areas through source reconstruction. The dynamical features of a state marked by activation in somatosensory, auditory, and posterior default-mode network areas predicted auditory and auditory-verbal HP, but not general HP, such that individuals with higher vulnerability to auditory hallucinations spent more time in this state. The temporal dynamics of spontaneous alpha activity might reflect individual differences in attention to internally generated sensory events and altered auditory perceptual sensitivity. Altered RS alpha dynamics could therefore instantiate a neural marker of increased vulnerability to auditory hallucinations.

BACKGROUND: Psychotic experiences emerge from abnormalities in perception and belief formation and occur more commonly in those experiencing childhood trauma. However, which precise aspects of belief formation are atypical in psychosis is not well understood. We used a computational modeling approach to characterize belief updating in young adults in the general population, examine their relationship with psychotic outcomes and trauma, and determine the extent to which they mediate the trauma-psychosis relationship. METHODS: We used data from 3360 individuals from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children birth cohort who completed assessments for psychotic outcomes, depression, anxiety, and two belief updating tasks at age 24 and had data available on traumatic events assessed from birth to late adolescence. Unadjusted and adjusted regression and counterfactual mediation methods were used for the analyses. RESULTS: Basic behavioral measures of belief updating (draws-to-decision and disconfirmatory updating) were not associated with psychotic experiences. However, computational modeling revealed an association between increased decision noise with both psychotic experiences and trauma exposure, although <3% of the trauma-psychotic experience association was mediated by decision noise. Belief updating measures were also associated with intelligence and sociodemographic characteristics, confounding most of the associations with psychotic experiences. There was little evidence that belief updating parameters were differentially associated with delusions compared with hallucinations or that they were differentially associated with psychotic outcomes compared with depression or anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: These findings challenge the hypothesis that atypical belief updating mechanisms (as indexed by the computational models and behavioral measures we used) underlie the development of psychotic phenomena.

Low-frequency 1q21.1 distal deletion and duplication copy number variant (CNV) carriers are predisposed to multiple neurodevelopmental disorders, including schizophrenia, autism and intellectual disability. Human carriers display a high prevalence of micro- and macrocephaly in deletion and duplication carriers, respectively. The underlying brain structural diversity remains largely unknown. We systematically called CNVs in 38 cohorts from the large-scale ENIGMA-CNV collaboration and the UK Biobank and identified 28 1q21.1 distal deletion and 22 duplication carriers and 37,088 non-carriers (48% male) derived from 15 distinct magnetic resonance imaging scanner sites. With standardized methods, we compared subcortical and cortical brain measures (all) and cognitive performance (UK Biobank only) between carrier groups also testing for mediation of brain structure on cognition. We identified positive dosage effects of copy number on intracranial volume (ICV) and total cortical surface area, with the largest effects in frontal and cingulate cortices, and negative dosage effects on caudate and hippocampal volumes. The carriers displayed distinct cognitive deficit profiles in cognitive tasks from the UK Biobank with intermediate decreases in duplication carriers and somewhat larger in deletion carriers-the latter potentially mediated by ICV or cortical surface area. These results shed light on pathobiological mechanisms of neurodevelopmental disorders, by demonstrating gene dose effect on specific brain structures and effect on cognitive function.

A key objective in the field of translational psychiatry over the past few decades has been to identify the brain correlates of major depressive disorder (MDD). Identifying measurable indicators of brain processes associated with MDD could facilitate the detection of individuals at risk, and the development of novel treatments, the monitoring of treatment effects, and predicting who might benefit most from treatments that target specific brain mechanisms. However, despite intensive neuroimaging research towards this effort, underpowered studies and a lack of reproducible findings have hindered progress. Here, we discuss the work of the ENIGMA Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) Consortium, which was established to address issues of poor replication, unreliable results, and overestimation of effect sizes in previous studies. The ENIGMA MDD Consortium currently includes data from 45 MDD study cohorts from 14 countries across six continents. The primary aim of ENIGMA MDD is to identify structural and functional brain alterations associated with MDD that can be reliably detected and replicated across cohorts worldwide. A secondary goal is to investigate how demographic, genetic, clinical, psychological, and environmental factors affect these associations. In this review, we summarize findings of the ENIGMA MDD disease working group to date and discuss future directions. We also highlight the challenges and benefits of large-scale data sharing for mental health research.

OBJECTIVE: The authors investigated the incidence, course, and outcome of psychotic experiences from childhood through early adulthood in the general population and examined prediction of psychotic disorder. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study using the semistructured Psychosis-Like Symptoms Interview at ages 12, 18, and 24 (N=7,900 with any data). Incidence rates were estimated using flexible parametric modeling, and positive predictive values (PPVs), sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were estimated for prediction. RESULTS: The incidence rate of psychotic experiences increased between ages 13 and 24, peaking during late adolescence. Of 3,866 participants interviewed at age 24, 313 (8.1%, 95% CI=7.2, 9.0) had a definite psychotic experience since age 12. A total of 109 individuals (2.8%) met criteria for a psychotic disorder up to age 24, of whom 70% had sought professional help. Prediction of current psychotic disorder at age 24 (N=47, 1.2%), by both self-report and interviewer-rated measures of psychotic experiences at age 18 (PPVs, 2.9% and 10.0%, respectively), was improved by incorporating information on frequency and distress (PPVs, 13.3% and 20.0%, respectively), although sensitivities were low. The PPV of an at-risk mental state at age 18 predicting incident disorder at ages 18-24 was 21.1% (95% CI=6.1, 45.6) (sensitivity, 14.3%, 95% CI=4.0, 32.7). CONCLUSIONS: The study results show a peak in incidence of psychotic experiences during late adolescence as well as an unmet need for care in young people with psychotic disorders. Because of the low sensitivity, targeting individuals in non-help-seeking samples based only on more severe symptom cutoff thresholds will likely have little impact on population levels of first-episode psychosis.