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1. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming

Author

Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andy J, Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alex C, Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter J, Aggarwal, Pramod K, Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan, Ferrise, Roberto, Garcia-Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C, Jones, Curtis D, Kassie, Belay T, Kersebaum, Kurt C, Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Naresh Kumar, Soora, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry J, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P, Semenov, Mikhail A, Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Asseng, Senthold, Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andy J, Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alex C, Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter J, Aggarwal, Pramod K, Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan, Ferrise, Roberto, Garcia-Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C, Jones, Curtis D, Kassie, Belay T, Kersebaum, Kurt C, Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Naresh Kumar, Soora, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry J, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P, Semenov, Mikhail A, Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, and Asseng, Senthold

Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is ther

Published
2019

2. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Author

National Science Foundation (US), National Natural Science Foundation of China, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), China Scholarship Council, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Gorgan University, Victoria State Government, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), German Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, LabEx Agro, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andrew J., Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alexander C., Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Jurajb, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Asseng, Senthold, National Science Foundation (US), National Natural Science Foundation of China, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), China Scholarship Council, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Gorgan University, Victoria State Government, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), German Research Foundation, Academy of Finland, LabEx Agro, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andrew J., Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alexander C., Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Jurajb, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, and Asseng, Senthold

Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not

Published
2019

3. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Author

International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), European Commission, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Innovation Fund Denmark, China Scholarship Council, Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Academy of Finland, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), University of Melbourne, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), German Research Foundation, Gorgan University, Asseng, Senthold, Martre, Pierre, Maiorano, Andrea, Rötter, Reimund P., O'Leary, Garry, Fitzgerald, Glenn J., Girousse, Christine, Motzo, Rosella, Giunta, Francesco, Babar, M. Ali, Reynolds, Matthew, Kheir, Ahmed, M .S., Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Ruane, Alexander C., Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Fereres Castiel, Elías, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Liu, Bing, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Porter, John R., Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Ewert, Frank, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), European Commission, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Innovation Fund Denmark, China Scholarship Council, Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Academy of Finland, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), University of Melbourne, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), German Research Foundation, Gorgan University, Asseng, Senthold, Martre, Pierre, Maiorano, Andrea, Rötter, Reimund P., O'Leary, Garry, Fitzgerald, Glenn J., Girousse, Christine, Motzo, Rosella, Giunta, Francesco, Babar, M. Ali, Reynolds, Matthew, Kheir, Ahmed, M .S., Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Ruane, Alexander C., Aggarwal, Pramod K., Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Fereres Castiel, Elías, Ferrise, Roberto, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Liu, Bing, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Porter, John R., Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, and Ewert, Frank

Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Published
2019

4. Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming

Author

Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andy J, Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alex C, Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter J, Aggarwal, Pramod K, Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan, Ferrise, Roberto, Garcia-Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C, Jones, Curtis D, Kassie, Belay T, Kersebaum, Kurt C, Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Naresh Kumar, Soora, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry J, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P, Semenov, Mikhail A, Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Asseng, Senthold, Liu, Bing, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Porter, John R., Challinor, Andy J, Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alex C, Waha, Katharina, Thorburn, Peter J, Aggarwal, Pramod K, Ahmed, Mukhtar, Balkovič, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Bindi, Marco, Cammarano, Davide, De Sanctis, Giacomo, Dumont, Benjamin, Espadafor, Mónica, Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan, Ferrise, Roberto, Garcia-Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Gao, Yujing, Horan, Heidi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Izaurralde, Roberto C, Jones, Curtis D, Kassie, Belay T, Kersebaum, Kurt C, Klein, Christian, Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Maiorano, Andrea, Minoli, Sara, Montesino San Martin, Manuel, Naresh Kumar, Soora, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry J, Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P, Semenov, Mikhail A, Stöckle, Claudio, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Van der Velde, Marijn, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Enli, Webber, Heidi, Wolf, Joost, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, and Asseng, Senthold

Abstract

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is ther

Published
2019

5. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset

Author

Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Kelly, David, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Hoek, Steven, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Reddy, Ashwan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, Skalsky, Rastislav, Wang, Xuhui, de Wit, Allard, Yang, Hong, Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Kelly, David, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Hoek, Steven, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Reddy, Ashwan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, Skalsky, Rastislav, Wang, Xuhui, de Wit, Allard, and Yang, Hong

Abstract

The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides an unprecedentedly large dataset of crop model simulations covering the global ice-free land surface. The dataset consists of annual data fields at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc-degree longitude and latitude. Fourteen crop modeling groups provided output for up to 11 historical input datasets spanning 1901 to 2012, and for up to three different management harmonization levels. Each group submitted data for up to 15 different crops and for up to 14 output variables. All simulations were conducted for purely rainfed and near-perfectly irrigated conditions on all land areas irrespective of whether the crop or irrigation system is currently used there. With the publication of the GGCMI phase 1 dataset we aim to promote further analyses and understanding of crop model performance, potential relationships between productivity and environmental impacts, and insights on how to further improve global gridded crop model frameworks. We describe dataset characteristics and individual model setup narratives.

Published
2019

6. The Hot Serial Cereal Experiment for modeling wheat response to temperature: field experiments and AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations

Author

Martre, Pierre, Kimball, Bruce A., Ottman, Michael J., Wall, Gerard W., White, Jeffrey W., Asseng, Senthold, Ewert, Frank, Cammarano, Davide, Maiorano, Andrea, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Anothai, Jakarat, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Doltra, Jordi, Dumont, Benjamin, Fereres, Elias, Garcia-Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Liu, Bing, Lobell, David B., Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Wang, Enli, Wolf, Joost, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Martre, Pierre, Kimball, Bruce A., Ottman, Michael J., Wall, Gerard W., White, Jeffrey W., Asseng, Senthold, Ewert, Frank, Cammarano, Davide, Maiorano, Andrea, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Anothai, Jakarat, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Doltra, Jordi, Dumont, Benjamin, Fereres, Elias, Garcia-Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Liu, Bing, Lobell, David B., Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Wang, Enli, Wolf, Joost, Zhao, Zhigan, and Zhu, Yan

Abstract

The data set reported here includes the part of a Hot Serial Cereal Experiment (HSC) experiment recently used in the AgMIP-Wheat project to analyze the uncertainty of 30 wheat models and quantify their response to temperature. The HSC experiment was conducted in an open-field in a semiarid environment in the southwest USA. The data reported herewith include one hard red spring wheat cultivar (Yecora Rojo) sown approximately every six weeks from December to August for a two-year period for a total of 11 planting dates out of the 15 of the entire HSC experiment. The treatments were chosen to avoid any effect of frost on grain yields. On late fall, winter and early spring plantings temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) apparatus utilizing infrared heaters with supplemental irrigation were used to increase air temperature by 1.3°C/2.7°C (day/night) with conditions equivalent to raising air temperature at constant relative humidity (i.e. as expected with global warming) during the whole crop growth cycle. Experimental data include local daily weather data, soil characteristics and initial conditions, detailed crop measurements taken at three growth stages during the growth cycle, and cultivar information. Simulations include both daily in-season and end-of-season results from 30 wheat models.

Published
2018

7. Global gridded crop model evaluation : Benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications

Author

Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Chryssanthacopoulos, James, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Glotter, Michael, Hoek, Steven, Iizumi, Toshichika, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis, Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Ray, Deepak K., Reddy, Ashwan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, Skalsky, Rastislav, Song, Carol X., Wang, Xuhui, De Wit, Allard, Yang, Hong, Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Chryssanthacopoulos, James, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Glotter, Michael, Hoek, Steven, Iizumi, Toshichika, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis, Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Ray, Deepak K., Reddy, Ashwan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, Skalsky, Rastislav, Song, Carol X., Wang, Xuhui, De Wit, Allard, and Yang, Hong

Abstract

Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all c

Published
2017

8. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Author

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Scholarship Council, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), European Commission, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Department of Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Helmholtz Association, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Wang, Enli, Martre, Pierre, Zhao, Zhigan, Ewert, Frank, Maiorano, Andrea, Rötter, Reimund P., Kimball, Bruce A., Ottman, Michael J., Wall, Gerard W., White, Jefrrey W., Reynolds, Matthew, Alderman, Phillip, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Anothai, Jakarat, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Cammarano, Davide, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Doltra, Jordi, Dumont, Benjamin, Fereres Castiel, Elías, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Liu, Leilei, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ripoche, Dominique, Ruane, Alexander C., Semenov, Mikhail A., Shcherbak, Iurii, Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Zhimin, Wolf, Joost, Zhu, Yan, Asseng, Senthold, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Scholarship Council, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), European Commission, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Department of Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Helmholtz Association, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), Wang, Enli, Martre, Pierre, Zhao, Zhigan, Ewert, Frank, Maiorano, Andrea, Rötter, Reimund P., Kimball, Bruce A., Ottman, Michael J., Wall, Gerard W., White, Jefrrey W., Reynolds, Matthew, Alderman, Phillip, Aggarwal, Pramod K., Anothai, Jakarat, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Cammarano, Davide, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Doltra, Jordi, Dumont, Benjamin, Fereres Castiel, Elías, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Liu, Leilei, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ripoche, Dominique, Ruane, Alexander C., Semenov, Mikhail A., Shcherbak, Iurii, Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Wallach, Daniel, Wang, Zhimin, Wolf, Joost, Zhu, Yan, and Asseng, Senthold

Abstract

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Published
2017

9. The International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment for modeling wheat response to heat: field experiments and AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations

Author

Martre, Pierre, Reynolds, Matthew, Asseng, Senthold, Ewert, Frank, Alderman, Phillip, Cammarano, Davide, Maiorano, Andrea, Ruane, Alexander C., Aggarwal, Pramod K., Anothai, Jakarat, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Doltra, Jordi, Dumont, Benjamin, Fereres Castiel, Elías, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Liu, Bing, Lobell, David B., Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Wang, Enli, White, Jefrrey W., Wolf, Joost, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Martre, Pierre, Reynolds, Matthew, Asseng, Senthold, Ewert, Frank, Alderman, Phillip, Cammarano, Davide, Maiorano, Andrea, Ruane, Alexander C., Aggarwal, Pramod K., Anothai, Jakarat, Basso, Bruno, Biernath, Christian, Challinor, Andrew J., De Sanctis, Giacomo, Doltra, Jordi, Dumont, Benjamin, Fereres Castiel, Elías, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jabloun, Mohamed, Jones, Curtis D., Kassie, Belay T., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Koehler, Ann-Kristin, Müller, Christoph, Kumar, Soora Naresh, Liu, Bing, Lobell, David B., Nendel, Claas, O'Leary, Garry, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Ripoche, Dominique, Rötter, Reimund P., Semenov, Mikhail A., Stöckle, Claudio, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Streck, Thilo, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Thorburn, Peter, Waha, Katharina, Wang, Enli, White, Jefrrey W., Wolf, Joost, Zhao, Zhigan, and Zhu, Yan

Abstract

he data set contains a portion of the International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment (IHSGE) data used in the AgMIP-Wheat project to analyze the uncertainty of 30 wheat crop models and quantify the impact of heat on global wheat yield productivity. It includes two spring wheat cultivars grown during two consecutive winter cropping cycles at hot, irrigated, and low latitude sites in Mexico (Ciudad Obregon and Tlaltizapan), Egypt (Aswan), India (Dharwar), the Sudan (Wad Medani), and Bangladesh (Dinajpur). Experiments in Mexico included normal (November-December) and late (January-March) sowing dates. Data include local daily weather data, soil characteristics and initial soil conditions, crop measurements (anthesis and maturity dates, anthesis and final total above ground biomass, final grain yields and yields components), and cultivar information. Simulations include both daily in-season and end-of-season results from 30 wheat models.

Published
2017

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