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BACKGROUND: Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy. METHODS: We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model. RESULTS: Two NZ studies gave TFEe's of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy-implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000's) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, addit

BACKGROUND: There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. METHODS/DESIGN: The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. DISCUSSION: The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease im

BACKGROUND: Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. METHODS: A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. FINDINGS: A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. CONCLUSIONS: Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.

BACKGROUND: Targeted food pricing policies may improve population diets. To assess their effects on inequalities, it is important to determine responsiveness to price changes across income levels and ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to estimate price elasticity (PE) values for major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, by income and ethnicity. PE values represent percentage change in demand associated with 1% change in price of that good (own-PE) or another good (cross-PE). DESIGN: We used food expenditure data from national household economic surveys in 2007/08 and 2009/10 and Food Price Index data from 2007 and 2010. Adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach, own-PE and cross-PE estimates were derived for 24 food categories, household income quintiles, and two ethnic groups (Māori and non-Māori). RESULTS: Own-PE estimates (with two exceptions) ranged from -0.44 to -1.78. Cross-PE estimates were generally small; only 31% of absolute values were greater than 0.10. Excluding the outlier 'energy drinks', nine of 23 food groups had significantly stronger own-PEs for the lowest versus highest income quintiles (average regression-based difference across food groups -0.30 (95% CI -0.62 to 0.02)). Six own-PEs were significantly stronger among Māori; the average difference for Māori: non-Māori across food groups was -0.26 (95% CI -0.52 to 0.00). CONCLUSIONS: Food pricing policies have potential to improve population diets. The greater sensitivity of low-income households and Māori to price changes suggests the beneficial effects of such policies on health would be greatest for these groups.

This is the first study on the effects of dietary mannan oligosaccharides (MOS) on growth, body composition, and intestine and liver histology of hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus). Experimental diets were prepared from commercial trout diet, supplemented with MOS at levels of 0, 1.5, 3.0, or 4.5 g MOS/kg feed and randomly assigned to triplicate groups. At the end of the trial, there were no significant differences between treatment groups (p>0.05) in growth parameters (live weight gain, specific growth rate, feed conversion ratio, protein efficien- cy ratio) or body indices (hepatosomatic and viscerosomatic). Dry matter and protein contents increased with increasing rates of dietary MOS (p<0.05) while the mean villi length of fish fed the diet containing 1.5‰ MOS was significantly longer (p<0.05) than that of the fish fed 4.5‰ dietary MOS. The different levels of dietary MOS had no detrimental effects on liver tissue or general fish health.

This is the first study on the effects of dietary mannan oligosaccharides (MOS) on growth, body composition, and intestine and liver histology of hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus). Experimental diets were prepared from commercial trout diet, supplemented with MOS at levels of 0, 1.5, 3.0, or 4.5 g MOS/kg feed and randomly assigned to triplicate groups. At the end of the trial, there were no significant differences between treatment groups (p>0.05) in growth parameters (live weight gain, specific growth rate, feed conversion ratio, protein efficien- cy ratio) or body indices (hepatosomatic and viscerosomatic). Dry matter and protein contents increased with increasing rates of dietary MOS (p<0.05) while the mean villi length of fish fed the diet containing 1.5‰ MOS was significantly longer (p<0.05) than that of the fish fed 4.5‰ dietary MOS. The different levels of dietary MOS had no detrimental effects on liver tissue or general fish health.

This is the first study on the effects of dietary mannan oligosaccharides (MOS) on growth, body composition, and intestine and liver histology of hybrid tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus x O. aureus). Experimental diets were prepared from commercial trout diet, supplemented with MOS at levels of 0, 1.5, 3.0, or 4.5 g MOS/kg feed and randomly assigned to triplicate groups. At the end of the trial, there were no significant differences between treatment groups (p>0.05) in growth parameters (live weight gain, specific growth rate, feed conversion ratio, protein efficien- cy ratio) or body indices (hepatosomatic and viscerosomatic). Dry matter and protein contents increased with increasing rates of dietary MOS (p<0.05) while the mean villi length of fish fed the diet containing 1.5‰ MOS was significantly longer (p<0.05) than that of the fish fed 4.5‰ dietary MOS. The different levels of dietary MOS had no detrimental effects on liver tissue or general fish health.