Search

Fall armyworm is a recently occurring invasive pest in India, the most important defoliator causing drastic damage to maize production. Hence, the present study aimed to understand the temporal infestation level of Fall armyworms on maize (Zea mays L.) with weather patterns. Field experiments were conducted during Summer (February-May) and Rainy seasons, 2022 (August-December) at Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. Three different growing environments (GE1, GE2 and GE3) were created by providing staggered sowing. Regression models were developed for per cent leaf damage against three-days lagged (LT3) and seven-day lagged (LT7) weather variables. Results showed that irrespective of growing environments, weather variables showed negative correlation (Tmax: r = -0.57, -0.81*, -0.31; SSH: -0.30, -0.48, -0.39; Tmean: -0.49, -0.23, -0.30; and SR: -0.48, -0.94*, -0.40) during summer season whereas same variables (i.e Tmax =0.62*, 0.41, 0.33; SSH = 0.09, 0.68*, 0.24; Tmean = 0.29, 0.32, 0.44; and SR=0.13, 0 .67*, 0.26 ) showed a positive correlation with PLD. Rainfall exhibits positive relation (0.06, 0.54, 0.53) and negative correlation (-0.64*, -0.10, -0.02) during summer and rainy season, respectively. Among the regression models, LT7 model had higher R2 (0.65 and 0.76) than LT3 (0.57 and 0.68) during summer and rainy seasons, respectively. These models had good regression values of 0.56 and 0.70 during Rainy and Summer, respectively. It was concluded that Tmax (32.9 °C), Tmin (23.7 °C), Tmean (28.3 °C), RH-I (85.6%), RH-II (56.4%), SSH (4.1), SR (274.6 cal cm-2 m-2), afternoon cloud cover (4.8 okta) and weekly total rainfall (10.2 mm) were very conducive for the greater leaf damage.

Extended Range of Forecast Service (ERFS) is highly useful for planning of cropping season and midterm correction at the farm level. The medium-range and long-range forecast validation have many studies, whereas ERF has less that needs to be studied. Maize is an important field crop in India after rice and wheat. Therefore, the prediction of maize yield has significant importance. In the present study, ERFS data were validated by correlation analysis using monthly observed rainfall frequency and intensity. This data was imported to DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer) to simulate maize yield of Erode district of Tamil Nadu. The model output and actual yield data from Erode were compared. Forecasted monthly total rainfall was correlated at a rate of 0.97r value with that observed. Yield simulation of maize was done using DSSAT by integrating ERFS data and the observed monthly data. Mean per cent deviation among the yields of observed weather and the disaggregated one tended to be -15.7 %. The average deviation between the yields of ERF forecasted weather data and actual yield was very high ( -29.7 % ) for Erode. Mean % deviation between the yields of observed weather and the actual yield was -14.7 %. Downscaled and accurate weather forecasts could be facilitated for yield prediction of crops by DSSAT model. Yield prediction by the model under observed weather was convenient and usable. Model under-predicted the yields when using ERF data. Both model and ERF forecast need to be improved further for higher resolution.