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1. An Experimental Study of Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics

Author

Program in Media Arts and Sciences (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Media Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Krafft, Peter M., Della Penna, Nicolas, Pentland, Alex Paul, Program in Media Arts and Sciences (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Media Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Krafft, Peter M., Della Penna, Nicolas, and Pentland, Alex Paul

Abstract

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects, which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design of digital institutions. Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; online markets; peer influence; computational social science; online field experiments; digital institutions; design; market design

Published
2020

2. Response to Comment on 'Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science'

Author

Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Zuni, Kellylynn, Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Abstract

Gilbert et al. conclude that evidence from the Open Science Collaboration's Reproducibility Project: Psychology indicates high reproducibility, given the study methodology. Their very optimistic assessment is limited by statistical misconceptions and by causal inferences from selectively interpreted, correlational data. Using the Reproducibility Project: Psychology data, both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility are possible, and neither are yet warranted.

Published
2016

3. Response to Comment on 'Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science'

Author

Anderson, Christopher J., Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A., Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J., Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A., Frank, Michael C., Grange, James A., Hartshorne, Joshua K., Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J., Lai, Calvin K., Levitan, Carmel A., Miller, Jeremy K., Moore, Katherine S., Meixner, Johannes M., Munafò, Marcus R., Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Ricker, Ashley A., Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R., Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., van Aert, Robbie C. M., van Assen, Marcel A. L. M., Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Zuni, Kellylynn, Anderson, Christopher J., Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A., Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J., Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A., Frank, Michael C., Grange, James A., Hartshorne, Joshua K., Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J., Lai, Calvin K., Levitan, Carmel A., Miller, Jeremy K., Moore, Katherine S., Meixner, Johannes M., Munafò, Marcus R., Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Ricker, Ashley A., Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R., Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., van Aert, Robbie C. M., van Assen, Marcel A. L. M., Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Abstract

Gilbert et al. conclude that evidence from the Open Science Collaboration's Reproducibility Project: Psychology indicates high reproducibility, given the study methodology. Their very optimistic assessment is limited by statistical misconceptions and by causal inferences from selectively interpreted, correlational data. Using the Reproducibility Project: Psychology data, both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility are possible, and neither are yet warranted.

Published
2016
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4. Response to Comment on 'Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science'

Author

Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Leerstoel Buskens, Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Zuni, Kellylynn, Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Leerstoel Buskens, Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Published
2016

5. Response to Comment on 'Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science'

Author

Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Leerstoel Buskens, Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Zuni, Kellylynn, Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Leerstoel Buskens, Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Published
2016

6. Response to Comment on 'Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science'

Author

Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Leerstoel Buskens, Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Zuni, Kellylynn, Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Leerstoel Buskens, Anderson, Christopher J, Bahník, Štěpán, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bosco, Frank A, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R, Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D, Cordes, Andreas, Cremata, Edward J, Della Penna, Nicolas, Estel, Vivien, Fedor, Anna, Fitneva, Stanka A, Frank, Michael C, Grange, James A, Hartshorne, Joshua K, Hasselman, Fred, Henninger, Felix, van der Hulst, Marije, Jonas, Kai J, Lai, Calvin K, Levitan, Carmel A, Miller, Jeremy K, Moore, Katherine S, Meixner, Johannes M, Munafò, Marcus R, Neijenhuijs, Koen I, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M, Ricker, Ashley A, Schmidt, Kathleen, Spies, Jeffrey R, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B, van Aert, Robbie C M, van Assen, Marcel A L M, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Published
2016

7. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Author

Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Bruening, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolas, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernandez-Castilla, Belen, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Gloeckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O. -Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jaekel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer, Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniel, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana, LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Moeschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Mueller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Gandalf, Nicolas, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michele B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, Rene, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L. M., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valasek, Milan, van 't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Don, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, Zuni, Kellylynn, Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Bruening, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolas, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernandez-Castilla, Belen, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Gloeckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O. -Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jaekel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer, Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniel, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana, LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Moeschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Mueller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Gandalf, Nicolas, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michele B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, Rene, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L. M., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valasek, Milan, van 't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Don, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Published
2015

8. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Author

Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Della Penna, Nicolas, Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, and Della Penna, Nicolas

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Published
2015

9. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Author

Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Bruening, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolas, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernandez-Castilla, Belen, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Gloeckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O. -Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jaekel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer, Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniel, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana, LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Moeschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Mueller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Gandalf, Nicolas, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michele B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, Rene, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L. M., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valasek, Milan, van 't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Don, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, Zuni, Kellylynn, Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Bruening, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolas, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernandez-Castilla, Belen, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Gloeckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O. -Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jaekel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer, Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniel, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana, LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Moeschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Mueller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Gandalf, Nicolas, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michele B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, Rene, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L. M., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valasek, Milan, van 't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Don, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Published
2015

12. New Objective Functions for Social Collaborative Filtering

Author

Noel, Joseph, Sanner, Scott, Tran, Khoi-Nguyen, Christen, Peter, Xie, Lexing, Bonilla, Edwin, Abbasnejad, Ehsan, Della Penna, Nicolas, Noel, Joseph, Sanner, Scott, Tran, Khoi-Nguyen, Christen, Peter, Xie, Lexing, Bonilla, Edwin, Abbasnejad, Ehsan, and Della Penna, Nicolas

Abstract

This paper examines the problem of social collaborative filtering (CF) to recommend items of interest to users in a social network setting. Unlike standard CF algorithms using relatively simple user and item features, recommendation in social networks poses the more complex problem of learning user preferences from a rich and complex set of user profile and interaction information. Many existing social CF methods have extended traditional CF matrix factorization, but have overlooked important aspects germane to the social setting. We propose a unified framework for social CF matrix factorization by introducing novel objective functions for training. Our new objective functions have three key features that address main drawbacks of existing approaches: (a) we fully exploit feature-based user similarity, (b) we permit direct learning of user-to-user information diffusion, and (c) we leverage co-preference (dis)agreement between two users to learn restricted areas of common interest. We evaluate these new social CF objectives, comparing them to each other and to a variety of (social) CF baselines, and analyze user behavior on live user trials in a customdeveloped Facebook App involving data collected over five months from over 100 App users and their 37,000+ friends.

Published
2012

14. Interpreting Prediction Markets: A Stochastic Approach

Author

Bartlett, P., Frongillo, Rafael M, Della Penna, Nicolas, Reid, Mark, Bartlett, P., Frongillo, Rafael M, Della Penna, Nicolas, and Reid, Mark

Abstract

We strengthen recent connections between prediction markets and learning by showing that a natural class of market makers can be understood as performing stochastic mirror descent when trader demands are sequentially drawn from a fixed distribution. This

Published
2012

15. Bandit Market Makers

Author

Della Penna, Nicolas, Reid, Mark, Della Penna, Nicolas, and Reid, Mark

Abstract

We propose a flexible framework for profit-seeking market making by combining cost function based automated market makers with bandit learning algorithms. The key idea is to consider each parametrisation of the cost function as a bandit arm, and the minimum expected profits from trades executed during a period as the rewards. This allows for the creation of market makers that can adjust liquidity and bid-asks spreads dynamically to maximise profits.

Published
2011

16. Bandit Market Makers

Author

Della Penna, Nicolas, Reid, Mark D., Della Penna, Nicolas, and Reid, Mark D.

Abstract

We introduce a modular framework for market making. It combines cost-function based automated market makers with bandit algorithms. We obtain worst-case profits guarantee's relative to the best in hindsight within a class of natural "overround" cost functions . This combination allow us to have distribution-free guarantees on the regret of profits while preserving the bounded worst-case losses and computational tractability over combinatorial spaces of the cost function based approach. We present simulation results to better understand the practical behaviour of market makers from the framework., Comment: A previous version of this work appeared in the NIPS 2011 Workshop on Computational Social Science and the Wisdom of the Crowds

Published
2011

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