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Animal conservation relies on assessing the distribution and habitat use of species, but for endangered/elusive animals this can prove difficult. The Monk Seal, Monachus monachus, is one of the world's most endangered species of pinniped, and the only one endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. During recent decades, direct observations have been few and scattered, making it difficult to determine its distribution away from the Aegean Sea (core distribution area of the post-decline relict population). This study relies on environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis to detect the presence of the Monk Seal in 135 samples collected in 120 locations of the central/western Mediterranean Sea, spanning about 1500 km longitudinally and 1000 km latitudinally. A recently described species-specific qPCR assay was used on marine-water samples, mostly collected during 2021 by a Citizen Science (CS) project. Positive detections occurred throughout the longitudinal range, including the westernmost surveyed area (Balearic archipelago). The distribution of the positive detections indicated six “hotspots”, mostly overlapping with historical Monk Seal sites, suggesting that habitat-specific characteristics play a fundamental role. We applied single-season occupancy models to correct for detection probability and to assess the importance of site-specific characteristics. The distance from small islets and protected (or access-restricted) areas was correlated negatively with the detection probability. This novel molecular approach, applied here for the first time in an extensive CS study, proved its potential as a tool for monitoring the distribution of this endangered/elusive species.

The monk seal is the most endangered pinniped worldwide and the only one found in the Mediterranean, where its distribution and abundance have suffered a drastic decline in the last few decades. The limited understanding of the population demographics and conservation status of this species are due to both its rarity and evasiveness, with records biased towards occasional, mostly coastal, encounters. Current molecular techniques allow us to detect DNA traces released into the environment (eDNA) by any organism. We have developed three species-specific qPCR-assays targeting the 12S/16S rRNA mitogenome regions of the monk seal. The assays have been tested extensively on a comprehensive and diverse set of samples (n = 73), including positive controls from a breeding population in Madeira collected during their peak abundance, and two opportunistic collections of Mediterranean eDNA samples (offshore/coastal) from on-going projects. Monk seal DNA was detected in 47.2% of the samples collected from a ferry platform in the Tyrrhenian (2018–2019) and in 66.7% of those obtained in the Pelagie archipelago in the Strait of Sicily (2020). These findings anticipated subsequent visual observations in the proximity of these sampling areas by up to 2 years. At the Tyrrhenian site, monk seal detection increased between 2018 and 2019. The demonstrated approach provides a non-invasive and highly sensitive tool for defining the monk seal actual distribution and home range -enabling monitoring also in nocturnal hours-, for assessing its recovery rate and pinpointing coastal/offshore sites where prioritizing conservation, research, citizen-science, and educational opportunities.

The monk seal is the most endangered pinniped worldwide and the only one found in the Mediterranean, where its distribution and abundance have suffered a drastic decline in the last few decades. The limited understanding of the population demographics and conservation status of this species are due to both its rarity and evasiveness, with records biased towards occasional, mostly coastal, encounters. Current molecular techniques allow us to detect DNA traces released into the environment (eDNA) by any organism. We have developed three species-specific qPCR-assays targeting the 12S/16S rRNA mitogenome regions of the monk seal. The assays have been tested extensively on a comprehensive and diverse set of samples (n = 73), including positive controls from a breeding population in Madeira collected during their peak abundance, and two opportunistic collections of Mediterranean eDNA samples (offshore/coastal) from on-going projects. Monk seal DNA was detected in 47.2% of the samples collected from a ferry platform in the Tyrrhenian (2018–2019) and in 66.7% of those obtained in the Pelagie archipelago in the Strait of Sicily (2020). These findings anticipated subsequent visual observations in the proximity of these sampling areas by up to 2 years. At the Tyrrhenian site, monk seal detection increased between 2018 and 2019. The demonstrated approach provides a non-invasive and highly sensitive tool for defining the monk seal actual distribution and home range -enabling monitoring also in nocturnal hours-, for assessing its recovery rate and pinpointing coastal/offshore sites where prioritizing conservation, research, citizen-science, and educational opportunities.

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) bett

The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand-driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact-driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co-developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

Tropical countries are already experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change. This study presents projections of climate change-driven variations in hydrology and sediment loads in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka. Bias-corrected climate projections (i.e., precipitation and temperature) from three high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (viz., RegCM4-MIROC5, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR, and NCC-NORESM1-M) are used here to force a calibrated hydrological model to project streamflow and sediment loads for two future periods (mid-century: 2046–2065, and end of the century: 2081–2099) under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, all simulations (forced with the three RCMs) project increased annual streamflow (67–87%) and sediment loads (128–145%). In general, streamflow and sediment loads are projected to increase more during the southwest monsoon season (May–September) than in other periods. Furthermore, by the end of the century, all simulations under the RCP 8.5 project a shift of streamflow and sediment loads in the southwest monsoon peak from May to June, while preserving the peak in the inter-monsoon 2 (in October). The projected changes in annual sediment loads are greater than the projected changes in annual streamflow (in percentage) for both future periods.

Tropical countries are already experiencing the adverse impacts of climate change. This study presents projections of climate change-driven variations in hydrology and sediment loads in the Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka. Bias-corrected climate projections (i.e., precipitation and temperature) from three high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (viz., RegCM4-MIROC5, MPI-M-MPI-ESM-MR, and NCC-NORESM1-M) are used here to force a calibrated hydrological model to project streamflow and sediment loads for two future periods (mid-century: 2046–2065, and end of the century: 2081–2099) under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, all simulations (forced with the three RCMs) project increased annual streamflow (67–87%) and sediment loads (128–145%). In general, streamflow and sediment loads are projected to increase more during the southwest monsoon season (May–September) than in other periods. Furthermore, by the end of the century, all simulations under the RCP 8.5 project a shift of streamflow and sediment loads in the southwest monsoon peak from May to June, while preserving the peak in the inter-monsoon 2 (in October). The projected changes in annual sediment loads are greater than the projected changes in annual streamflow (in percentage) for both future periods.

An ensemble of six pairs of RCM experiments performed at 25 and 50 km for the period 1961–2000 over a large European domain is examined in order to evaluate the effects of resolution on the simulation of daily precipitation statistics. Application of the non-parametric two-sample Kolmorgorov–Smirnov test, which tests for differences in the location and shape of the probability distributions of two samples, shows that the distribution of daily precipitation differs between the pairs of simulations over most land areas in both summer and winter, with the strongest signal over southern Europe. Two-dimensional histograms reveal that precipitation intensity increases with resolution over almost the entire domain in both winter and summer. In addition, the 25 km simulations have more dry days than the 50 km simulations. The increase in dry days with resolution is indicative of an improvement in model performance at higher resolution, while the more intense precipitation exceeds observed values. The systematic increase in precipitation extremes with resolution across all models suggests that this response is fundamental to model formulation. Simple theoretical arguments suggest that fluid continuity, combined with the emergent scaling properties of the horizontal wind field, results in an increase in resolved vertical transport as grid spacing decreases. This increase in resolution-dependent vertical mass flux then drives an intensification of convergence and resolvable-scale precipitation as grid spacing decreases. This theoretical result could help explain the increasingly, and often anomalously, large stratiform contribution to total rainfall observed with increasing resolution in many regional and global models.

An ensemble of six pairs of RCM experiments performed at 25 and 50 km for the period 1961–2000 over a large European domain is examined in order to evaluate the effects of resolution on the simulation of daily precipitation statistics. Application of the non-parametric two-sample Kolmorgorov–Smirnov test, which tests for differences in the location and shape of the probability distributions of two samples, shows that the distribution of daily precipitation differs between the pairs of simulations over most land areas in both summer and winter, with the strongest signal over southern Europe. Two-dimensional histograms reveal that precipitation intensity increases with resolution over almost the entire domain in both winter and summer. In addition, the 25 km simulations have more dry days than the 50 km simulations. The increase in dry days with resolution is indicative of an improvement in model performance at higher resolution, while the more intense precipitation exceeds observed values. The systematic increase in precipitation extremes with resolution across all models suggests that this response is fundamental to model formulation. Simple theoretical arguments suggest that fluid continuity, combined with the emergent scaling properties of the horizontal wind field, results in an increase in resolved vertical transport as grid spacing decreases. This increase in resolution-dependent vertical mass flux then drives an intensification of convergence and resolvable-scale precipitation as grid spacing decreases. This theoretical result could help explain the increasingly, and often anomalously, large stratiform contribution to total rainfall observed with increasing resolution in many regional and global models.

We simulate the observed statistical relationship between ENSO and the rainfall regime of the upper Blue Nile using the tropical-band version of the regional climate model RegCM4 (or Reg-TB). An ensemble of nine simulations for the 28-year period 1982–2009 is completed to investigate the role of ENSO in modulating rainfall over the upper Blue Nile catchment. Reg-TB shows a good skill in simulating the climatology of temperature, outgoing long-wave radiation patterns as well as related atmospheric circulation features during the summer season (i.e. the rainy season over the Blue Nile catchment). The model also succeeds in reproducing the observed negative correlation between Pacific SST and rainfall anomalies over the Blue Nile catchment, and in particular the association of droughts over the Blue Nile with El Niño events that start in April–June. We thus propose that observations and model forecasts of Pacific SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall over the upper Blue Nile region., Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Earth System Physics, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Sandwich Training Educational Programme, European Union (DEWFORA Project)

We discuss a surrogate climate change (SCC) simulation over the Alpine region with a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) using a fine scale sub-grid land surface representation. Multi-year simulations are completed with an imposed illustrative 3K warming on the forcing large scale meteorological conditions and on the sea surface temperatures in the interior domain. The corresponding relative humidity is kept constant, which results in an increase of atmospheric moisture. We find that in the winter season precipitation increases consistently with the SCC approach, with a significant dependence on topographical elevation. Other components of the surface energy and water budgets also show a marked elevation dependency, mostly tied to changes in snow cover. In summer, contrary to what might be expected from the SCC forcing, precipitation decreases over the Alpine mountain chain. This is due to a local surface-atmosphere feedback mechanism involving reduced snow cover and soil moisture at the beginning of summer. Our results suggest that over the Alps during summer local feedbacks related to the surface energy and water budgets are important factors in determining the precipitation response to global warming. This result might extend to other mid-latitude mountainous areas.

A mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (SubBATS) is applied for a high-resolution regional climate simulation over the Alpine region with a regional climate model (RegCM3). The model coarse-gridcell size in the control simulation is 15 km while the subgridcell size is 3 km. The parameterization requires disaggregation of atmospheric variables from the coarse grid to the subgrid and aggregation of surface fluxes from the subgrid to the coarse grid. Two 10-yr simulations (1983-92) are intercompared, one without (CONT) and one with (SUB) the subgrid scheme. The authors first validate the CONT simulation, showing that it produces good quality temperature and precipitation statistics, showing in particular a good performance compared to previous runs of this region. The subgrid scheme produces much finer detail of temperature and snow distribution following the topographic disaggregation. It also tends to form and melt snow more accurately in response to the heterogeneous characteristics of topography. In particular, validation against station observations shows that the SUB simulation improves the model simulation of the surface hydrologic cycle, in particular snow and runoff, especially at high-elevation sites. Finally, two experiments explore the model sensitivity to different subgrid disaggregation assumptions, namely, the temperature lapse rate and an empirical elevation-based disaggregation of precipitation.

We discuss a surrogate climate change (SCC) simulation over the Alpine region with a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) using a fine scale sub-grid land surface representation. Multi-year simulations are completed with an imposed illustrative 3K warming on the forcing large scale meteorological conditions and on the sea surface temperatures in the interior domain. The corresponding relative humidity is kept constant, which results in an increase of atmospheric moisture. We find that in the winter season precipitation increases consistently with the SCC approach, with a significant dependence on topographical elevation. Other components of the surface energy and water budgets also show a marked elevation dependency, mostly tied to changes in snow cover. In summer, contrary to what might be expected from the SCC forcing, precipitation decreases over the Alpine mountain chain. This is due to a local surface-atmosphere feedback mechanism involving reduced snow cover and soil moisture at the beginning of summer. Our results suggest that over the Alps during summer local feedbacks related to the surface energy and water budgets are important factors in determining the precipitation response to global warming. This result might extend to other mid-latitude mountainous areas.

A mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (SubBATS) is applied for a high-resolution regional climate simulation over the Alpine region with a regional climate model (RegCM3). The model coarse-gridcell size in the control simulation is 15 km while the subgridcell size is 3 km. The parameterization requires disaggregation of atmospheric variables from the coarse grid to the subgrid and aggregation of surface fluxes from the subgrid to the coarse grid. Two 10-yr simulations (1983-92) are intercompared, one without (CONT) and one with (SUB) the subgrid scheme. The authors first validate the CONT simulation, showing that it produces good quality temperature and precipitation statistics, showing in particular a good performance compared to previous runs of this region. The subgrid scheme produces much finer detail of temperature and snow distribution following the topographic disaggregation. It also tends to form and melt snow more accurately in response to the heterogeneous characteristics of topography. In particular, validation against station observations shows that the SUB simulation improves the model simulation of the surface hydrologic cycle, in particular snow and runoff, especially at high-elevation sites. Finally, two experiments explore the model sensitivity to different subgrid disaggregation assumptions, namely, the temperature lapse rate and an empirical elevation-based disaggregation of precipitation.

We discuss a surrogate climate change (SCC) simulation over the Alpine region with a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) using a fine scale sub-grid land surface representation. Multi-year simulations are completed with an imposed illustrative 3K warming on the forcing large scale meteorological conditions and on the sea surface temperatures in the interior domain. The corresponding relative humidity is kept constant, which results in an increase of atmospheric moisture. We find that in the winter season precipitation increases consistently with the SCC approach, with a significant dependence on topographical elevation. Other components of the surface energy and water budgets also show a marked elevation dependency, mostly tied to changes in snow cover. In summer, contrary to what might be expected from the SCC forcing, precipitation decreases over the Alpine mountain chain. This is due to a local surface-atmosphere feedback mechanism involving reduced snow cover and soil moisture at the beginning of summer. Our results suggest that over the Alps during summer local feedbacks related to the surface energy and water budgets are important factors in determining the precipitation response to global warming. This result might extend to other mid-latitude mountainous areas.

A multicentre, randomised, open trial with a 2 x 2 factorial design was conducted to compare the benefits and risks of two thrombolytic agents, streptokinase (SK, 1·5 MU infused intravenously over 30-60 min) and alteplase (tPA, 100 mg infused intravenously over 3 h) in patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to coronary care units within 6 h from onset of symptoms. The patients were also randomised to receive heparin (12 500 U subcutaneously twice daily until discharge from hospital, starting 12 h after beginning the tPA or SK infusion) or usual therapy. All patients without specific contraindications were given atenolol (5-10 mg iv) and aspirin (300-325 mg a day). The end-point of the study was the combined estimate of death plus severe left ventricular damage. 12 490 patients were randomised to four treatment groups (SK alone, SK plus heparin, tPA alone, tPA plus heparin). No specific differences between the two thrombolytic agents were detected as regards the combined end-point (tPA 23·1%; SK 22·5%; relative risk 1·04, 95% Cl 0·95-1·13), nor after the addition of heparin to the aspirin treatment (hep 22·7%, no hep 22·9%; RR 0·99, 95% Cl 0·91-1·08). The outcome of patients allocated to the four treatment groups was similar with respect to baseline risk factors such as age, Killip class, hours from onset of symptoms, and site and type of infarct. The rates of major in-hospital cardiac complications (reinfarction, post-infarction angina) were also similar. The incidence of major bleeds was significantly higher in SK and heparin treated patients (respectively, tPA 0·5%, SK 1·0%, RR 0·57, 95% Cl 0·38-0·85; hep 1·0%, no hep 0·6%, RR 1·64, 95% Cl 1·09-2·45), whereas the overall incidence of stroke was similar in all groups. SK and tPA appear equally effective and safe for use in routine conditions of care, in all infarct patients who have no contraindications, with or without post-thrombolytic heparin treatment. The 8·8% hospital mortality of the study popula

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A mathematical model has been developed to simulate the production lines at Watervliet Arsenal. Inputs to the model include the steps required to transform raw material into a finished product and the resources available for production. From these data, the model will predict such things as the number of items produced by the line, utilization of machines and workers and areas where the number or quality of the resources are not adequate to meet the desired production goals.

Two probabilistic models of gun tube fatigue have been recently developed by adding probabilistic elements to a deterministic model of fatigue failure. These probabilistic models are examined to determine if they give adequate representations when certain questionable assumptions are lifted. In addition, the deterministic model is cast into a more general probabilistic framework, and the effects of certain statistical assumptions are examined. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to approximate possible distributions for gun tube fatigue lives. These generated distributions are compared to various theoretical distributions to determine their adequacy in representing fatigue data. A randomizing method of selecting distributions for material properties of the gun tube is used to give some independence from unwarranted assumptions. Results of the simulation studies indicate that the lognormal distribution generally gives the best fit to the fatigue lives, but in most cases the lognormal distribution can be rejected by goodness-of-fit tests.