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The discipline of game theory was introduced in the context of economics, and has been applied to study cyber attacker and defender behaviors. While adaptions have been made to accommodate features in the cyber domain, these studies are inherently limited by the root of game theory in economic systems where players (i.e., agents) may be selfish but not malicious. In this SoK, we systematize the major cybersecurity problems that have been studied with the game-theoretic approach, the assumptions that have been made, the models and solution concepts that have been proposed. The systematization leads to a characterization of the technical gaps that must be addressed in order to make game-theoretic cybersecurity models truly useful. We explore bridges to address them., Comment: 21 pages, Finished October 17th, 2023

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Opaque scintillators are designed to have a short scattering length such that scintillation photons are probabilistically confined to a small region of space about their origin. The benefit of this feature is that information on the interaction event topology can be recorded with greater fidelity than in traditional highly transparent media with sensors at large distances from the light production region. Opaque scintillator detectors rely on wavelength-shifting fibers to extract the scintillation light; however, the efficiency of light collection has not yet been directly measured in experiment. We measured the efficiency of light collection as a function of the optical parameters of an opaque liquid and the distance from the origin of the light to the fiber. We use the experimental data to validate a Monte Carlo model of light transport and collection and discuss a simple diffusion model that reproduces the results of Monte Carlo simulation with high fidelity. This combination of validated models has the potential for use in predictions of performance in various designs of future opaque scintillator detectors such as LiquidO., Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures

The theory of learning in games has extensively studied situations where agents respond dynamically to each other by optimizing a fixed utility function. However, in real situations, the strategic environment varies as a result of past agent choices. Unfortunately, the analysis techniques that enabled a rich characterization of the emergent behavior in static environment games fail to cope with dynamic environment games. To address this, we develop a general framework using probabilistic couplings to extend the analysis of static environment games to dynamic ones. Using this approach, we obtain sufficient conditions under which traditional characterizations of Nash equilibria with best response dynamics and stochastic stability with log-linear learning can be extended to dynamic environment games. As a case study, we pose a model of cyber threat intelligence sharing between firms and a simple dynamic game-theoretic model of social precautions in an epidemic, both of which feature dynamic environments. For both examples, we obtain conditions under which the emergent behavior is characterized in the dynamic game by performing the traditional analysis on a reference static environment game., Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2103.13475

A significant expansion of prescribed fire activity will be necessary to mitigate growing wildfire hazard in California forests. Forest managers can facilitate this expansion by promoting forest structures that allow for more effective implementation of prescribed fire, for both initial-entry and repeat burns. We analyzed changes in surface fuel during a series of three burns in replicated mixed-conifer stands following a period of over 100 years of fire suppression and exclusion. Total fuel load, proportion of pine present, canopy cover and basal area of live trees were relevant forest-structure components that influenced plot-scale fuel consumption. The study highlighted the importance of pre-fire fuel load and the relative proportion of pine in the overstory, which both led to greater amounts of fuel consumption. The initial-entry burn dramatically reduced all fuel categories (fine fuel, coarse wood and duff). Following each burn, fuel recovered until the next burn reduced loads enough to maintain low fuel levels. We apply the results to provide an example of how to determine the timing of prescribed fires.

A significant expansion of prescribed fire activity will be necessary to mitigate growing wildfire hazard in California forests. Forest managers can facilitate this expansion by promoting forest structures that allow for more effective implementation of prescribed fire, for both initial-entry and repeat burns. We analyzed changes in surface fuel during a series of three burns in replicated mixed-conifer stands following a period of over 100 years of fire suppression and exclusion. Total fuel load, proportion of pine present, canopy cover and basal area of live trees were relevant forest-structure components that influenced plot-scale fuel consumption. The study highlighted the importance of pre-fire fuel load and the relative proportion of pine in the overstory, which both led to greater amounts of fuel consumption. The initial-entry burn dramatically reduced all fuel categories (fine fuel, coarse wood and duff). Following each burn, fuel recovered until the next burn reduced loads enough to maintain low fuel levels. We apply the results to provide an example of how to determine the timing of prescribed fires.

Responsible stewardship of temperate forests can address key challenges posed by climate change through sequestering carbon, producing low-carbon products, and mitigating climate risks. Forest thinning and fuel reduction can mitigate climate-related risks like catastrophic wildfire. These treatments are often cost prohibitive, though, in part because of low demand for low-value wood "residues." Where treatment occurs, this low-value wood is often burned or left to decay, releasing carbon. In this study, we demonstrate that innovative use of low-value wood, with improved potential revenues and carbon benefits, can support economical, carbon-beneficial forest management outcomes in California. With increased demand for wood residues, forest health-oriented thinning could produce up to 7.3 million (M) oven-dry tonnes of forest residues per year, an eightfold increase over current levels. Increased management and wood use could yield net climate benefits between 6.4 and 16.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (M tCO2e) per year when considering impacts from management, wildfire, carbon storage in products, and displacement of fossil carbon-intensive alternatives over a 40-y period. We find that products with durable carbon storage confer the greatest benefits, as well as products that reduce emissions in hard-to-decarbonize sectors like industrial heat. Concurrently, treatment could reduce wildfire hazard on 4.9 M ha (12.1 M ac), a quarter of which could experience stand-replacing effects without treatment. Our results suggest that innovative wood use can support widespread fire hazard mitigation and reduce net CO2 emissions in California.

A key challenge in responding to public health crises such as COVID-19 is the difficulty of predicting the results of feedback interconnections between the disease and society. As a step towards understanding these interconnections, we pose a simple game-theoretic model of a global pandemic in which individuals can choose where to live, and we investigate the global behavior that may emerge as a result of individuals reacting locally to the competing costs of isolation and infection. We study the game-theoretic equilibria that emerge from this setup when the population is composed of either selfish or altruistic individuals. First, we demonstrate that as is typical in these types of games, selfish equilibria are in general not optimal, but that all stable selfish equilibria are within a constant factor of optimal. Second, there exist infinitely-many stable altruistic equilibria; all but finitely-many of these are worse than the worst selfish equilibrium, and the social cost of altruistic equilibria is unbounded. Our work is in sharp contrast to recent work in network congestion games in which all altruistic equilibria are socially optimal. This suggests that a population without central coordination may react very poorly to a pandemic, and that individual altruism could even exacerbate the problem.

The theory of learning in games has extensively studied situations where agents respond dynamically to each other by optimizing a fixed utility function. However, in many settings of interest, agent utility functions themselves vary as a result of past agent choices. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic provides an example: a highly prevalent virus may incentivize individuals to wear masks, but extensive adoption of mask-wearing reduces virus prevalence which in turn reduces individual incentives for mask-wearing. This paper develops a general framework using probabilistic coupling methods that can be used to derive the stochastically stable states of log-linear learning in certain games which feature such game-environment feedback. As a case study, we apply this framework to a simple dynamic game-theoretic model of social precautions in an epidemic and give conditions under which maximally cautious social behavior in this model is stochastically stable.

After the suppression of his newspaper, The Rebel, in 1917, Thomas Aloysius Hickey was left adrift. The First Red Scare would soon arrive, and government suppression of the Socialist Party of America destroyed the Party's strength west of the Mississippi. But with the 1918 Ranger and Desdemona oil booms in Eastland County, Texas, Hickey saw an opportunity to make enough money to fund a new version of The Rebel. Using letters, advertisements, pamphlets, and newspaper accounts, this thesis shows that the oil company Hickey helped to found, the National Workers Drilling and Production Company, used the language of socialism to market itself to socialist and radical audiences. In addition, the reactions to the Company by those socialists and radical shows the various ways these same people navigated the First Red Scare. Finally, the reaction in the national mainstream press shows methods, outside fomenting hysteria, the press used to suppress socialism in the United States.

We used Landsat-based measures of annual evapotranspiration (ET) to explore the effects of wildfires on vegetation water use across California’s Sierra Nevada. Wildfires decreased ET relative to unburned and pre-fire controls, in many areas this reduction persisted for at least 15 years. The ET reduction averaged 265 mm yr-1 (36% of pre-fire ET) during the first year after fire, and 169 mm yr-1 (23%) over the first 15 years after fire. The ET reduction varied with burn severity, pre-fire canopy density, and hydro-topographic environment. In areas burned at low severity the ET reduction in the first year after fire averaged 224 mm yr-1 (31% of pre-fire ET) whereas high severity were reduced a 362 mm yr-1 (50% ) for the first year. Forest stands that were denser pre-fire had a larger ET reduction across all burn severities. Evapotranspiration reduction following moderate-to-high-severity burns was greatest at 900-1300 m asl elevation. The combination of pre-fire canopy density and burn severity explained 70% of the spatial variation in first-year ET reduction. Forest restoration and a reintroduction of low-intensity fire have been proposed as management practices to mitigate fire risk and improve ecosystem health. Our findings illustrate that restoration and fire reintroduction may reduce the current total ET by up to 9%, with potential benefits for downstream water supply in a globally important food-producing region.

We used Landsat-based measures of annual evapotranspiration (ET) to explore the effects of wildfires on vegetation water use across California’s Sierra Nevada. Wildfires decreased ET relative to unburned and pre-fire controls, in many areas this reduction persisted for at least 15 years. The ET reduction averaged 265 mm yr-1 (36% of pre-fire ET) during the first year after fire, and 169 mm yr-1 (23%) over the first 15 years after fire. The ET reduction varied with burn severity, pre-fire canopy density, and hydro-topographic environment. In areas burned at low severity the ET reduction in the first year after fire averaged 224 mm yr-1 (31% of pre-fire ET) whereas high severity were reduced a 362 mm yr-1 (50% ) for the first year. Forest stands that were denser pre-fire had a larger ET reduction across all burn severities. Evapotranspiration reduction following moderate-to-high-severity burns was greatest at 900-1300 m asl elevation. The combination of pre-fire canopy density and burn severity explained 70% of the spatial variation in first-year ET reduction. Forest restoration and a reintroduction of low-intensity fire have been proposed as management practices to mitigate fire risk and improve ecosystem health. Our findings illustrate that restoration and fire reintroduction may reduce the current total ET by up to 9%, with potential benefits for downstream water supply in a globally important food-producing region.

How does information regarding an adversary's intentions affect optimal system design? This paper addresses this question in the context of graphical coordination games where an adversary can indirectly influence the behavior of agents by modifying their payoffs. We study a situation in which a system operator must select a graph topology in anticipation of the action of an unknown adversary. The designer can limit her worst-case losses by playing a security strategy, effectively planning for an adversary which intends maximum harm. However, fine-grained information regarding the adversary's intention may help the system operator to fine-tune the defenses and obtain better system performance. In a simple model of adversarial behavior, this paper asks how much a system operator can gain by fine-tuning a defense for known adversarial intent. We find that if the adversary is weak, a security strategy is approximately optimal for any adversary type; however, for moderately-strong adversaries, security strategies are far from optimal., Comment: ACC2020, 6 pages

We analyzed historical timber inventory data collected systematically across a large mixed-conifer-dominated landscape to gain insight into the interaction between disturbances and vegetation structure and composition prior to 20th century land management practices. Using records from over 20 000 trees, we quantified historical vegetation structure and composition for nine distinct vegetation groups. Our findings highlight some key aspects of forest structure under an intact disturbance regime: (1) forests were low density, with mean live basal area and tree density ranging from 8-30 m2 /ha and 25-79 trees/ha, respectively; (2) understory and overstory structure and composition varied considerably across the landscape; and (3) elevational gradients largely explained variability in forest structure over the landscape. Furthermore, the presence of large trees across most of the surveyed area suggests that extensive stand-replacing disturbances were rare in these forests. The vegetation structure and composition characteristics we quantified, along with evidence of largely elevational control on these characteristics, can provide guidance for restoration efforts in similar forests.

We analyzed historical timber inventory data collected systematically across a large mixed-conifer-dominated landscape to gain insight into the interaction between disturbances and vegetation structure and composition prior to 20th century land management practices. Using records from over 20 000 trees, we quantified historical vegetation structure and composition for nine distinct vegetation groups. Our findings highlight some key aspects of forest structure under an intact disturbance regime: (1) forests were low density, with mean live basal area and tree density ranging from 8-30 m2 /ha and 25-79 trees/ha, respectively; (2) understory and overstory structure and composition varied considerably across the landscape; and (3) elevational gradients largely explained variability in forest structure over the landscape. Furthermore, the presence of large trees across most of the surveyed area suggests that extensive stand-replacing disturbances were rare in these forests. The vegetation structure and composition characteristics we quantified, along with evidence of largely elevational control on these characteristics, can provide guidance for restoration efforts in similar forests.

Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and windstorms are increasingly common forest disturbances. Post-disturbance management often involves salvage logging, i.e., the felling and removal of the affected trees; however, this practice may represent an additional disturbance with effects on ecosystem processes and services. We developed a systematic map to provide an overview of the primary studies on this topic and created a database with information on the characteristics of the retrieved publications, including information on stands, disturbance, intervention, measured outcomes, and study design. Of 4341 retrieved publications, 90 were retained in the systematic map. These publications represented 49 studies, predominantly from North America and Europe. Salvage logging after wildfire was addressed more frequently than after insect outbreaks or windstorms. Most studies addressed logging after a single disturbance event, and replication of salvaged stands rarely exceeded 10. The most frequent response variables were tree regeneration, ground cover, and deadwood characteristics. This document aims to help managers find the most relevant primary studies on the ecological effects of salvage logging. It also aims to identify and discuss clusters and gaps in the body of evidence, relevant for scientists who aim to synthesize previous work or identify questions for future studies.

Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO2 efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO2 efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60-70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related st

Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO2 efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO2 efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60-70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related st

The balance between ecosystem emissions of carbon to the atmosphere and removals from the atmosphere indicates whether ecosystems are exacerbating or reducing climate change. Forest ecosystems in the State of California, USA, contain carbon that reaches the highest densities (mass per unit area) in the world, but it has been unresolved whether California ecosystems currently comprise a net sink or source of carbon. The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 established greenhouse gas reduction targets for fossil fuel-burning sectors and ecosystems, underscoring the importance of tracking ecosystem carbon. Here, we conduct statewide spatial inventories of the aboveground live carbon stocks of forests and other terrestrial ecosystems of California, excluding agricultural and urban areas. We analyzed biomass data from field measurements of the Forest Inventory and Analysis program, published biomass information and remote sensing data on non-forest vegetation, and spatial distributions of vegetation types, height, and fractional cover derived by the Landfire program from Landsat remote sensing at 30m spatial resolution. We conducted Monte Carlo analyses of the uncertainty of carbon stock change estimates from errors in tree biomass estimates, remote sensing, and estimates of the carbon fraction of biomass. The carbon stock in aboveground biomass was 850±230 Tg (mean±95% confidence interval) in 2010. We found a net aboveground live carbon stock change of −69±15 Tg from 2001 to 2010, a rate of change of −0.8±0.2%y−1. Due to slow decay of some dead wood, all of the live carbon stock change does not immediately generate emissions. Wildfires on 6% of the state analysis area produced two-thirds of the live carbon stock loss. This suggests that increased tree densities from a century of fire suppression have allowed the accumulation of fuel for carbon losses in recent wildfires. Remote sensing errors in vegetation classification accounted for most of the uncertainty

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha−1, and occupied 27–46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11–20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥56%) in large patches (≥10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types.

We investigated the relationship between LiDAR and ladder fuels in the northern Sierra Nevada, California USA. Ladder fuels are often targeted in hazardous fuel reduction treatments due to their role in propagating fire from the forest floor to tree crowns. Despite their importance, ladder fuels are difficult to quantify. One common approach is to calculate canopy base height, but this has many potential sources of error. LiDAR may be a way forward to better characterize ladder fuels, but has only been used to address this question peripherally and in only a few instances. After establishing that landscape fuel treatments reduced canopy and ladder fuels at our site, we tested which LiDAR-derived metrics best differentiated treated from untreated areas. The percent cover between 2 and 4 m had the most explanatory power to distinguish treated from untreated pixels across a range of spatial scales. When compared to independent plot-based measures of ladder fuel classes, this metric differentiated between high and low levels of ladder fuels. These findings point to several immediate applications for land managers and suggest new avenues of study that could lead to possible improvements in the way that we model wildfire behavior across forested landscapes in the US.

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha−1, and occupied 27–46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11–20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥56%) in large patches (≥10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types.

We investigated the relationship between LiDAR and ladder fuels in the northern Sierra Nevada, California USA. Ladder fuels are often targeted in hazardous fuel reduction treatments due to their role in propagating fire from the forest floor to tree crowns. Despite their importance, ladder fuels are difficult to quantify. One common approach is to calculate canopy base height, but this has many potential sources of error. LiDAR may be a way forward to better characterize ladder fuels, but has only been used to address this question peripherally and in only a few instances. After establishing that landscape fuel treatments reduced canopy and ladder fuels at our site, we tested which LiDAR-derived metrics best differentiated treated from untreated areas. The percent cover between 2 and 4 m had the most explanatory power to distinguish treated from untreated pixels across a range of spatial scales. When compared to independent plot-based measures of ladder fuel classes, this metric differentiated between high and low levels of ladder fuels. These findings point to several immediate applications for land managers and suggest new avenues of study that could lead to possible improvements in the way that we model wildfire behavior across forested landscapes in the US.

Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire emissions however can be difficult due to inherent variability in fuel loads and consumption and a lack of field data of fuel consumption by wildfire. We compare a unique set of fuel data collected immediately before and after six wildfires in coniferous forests of California to fuel consumption predictions of the first-order fire effects model (FOFEM), based on two different available fuel characterizations. We found strong regional differences in the performance of different fuel characterizations, with FOFEM overestimating the fuel consumption to a greater extent in the Klamath Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada. Inaccurate fuel load inputs caused the largest differences between predicted and observed fuel consumption. Fuel classifications tended to overestimate duff load and underestimate litter load, leading to differences in predicted emissions for some pollutants. When considering total ground and surface fuels, modeled consumption was fairly accurate on average, although the range of error in estimates of plot level consumption was very large. These results highlight the importance of fuel load input to the accuracy of modeled fuel consumption and GHG emissions from wildfires in coniferous forests. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.

Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.