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BACKGROUND: Food taxes and subsidies are one intervention to address poor diets. Price elasticity (PE) matrices are commonly used to model the change in food purchasing. Usually a PE matrix is generated in one setting then applied to another setting with differing starting consumptions and prices of foods. This violates econometric assumptions resulting in likely mis-estimation of total food consumption. In this paper we demonstrate this problem, canvass possible options for rescaling all consumption after applying a PE matrix, and illustrate the use of a total food expenditure elasticity (TFEe; the expenditure elasticity for all food combined given the policy-induced change in the total price of food). We use case studies of: NZ$2 per 100g saturated fat (SAFA) tax, NZ$0.4 per 100g sugar tax, and a 20% fruit and vegetable (F&V) subsidy. METHODS: We estimated changes in food purchasing using a NZ PE matrix applied conventionally, and then with TFEe adjustment. Impacts were quantified for pre- to post-policy changes in total food expenditure and health adjusted life years (HALYs) for the total NZ population alive in 2011 over the rest of their lifetime using a multistate lifetable model. RESULTS: Two NZ studies gave TFEe's of 0.68 and 0.83, with international estimates ranging from 0.46 to 0.90 (except a UK outlier of 0.04). Without TFEe adjustment, total food expenditure decreased with the tax policies and increased with the F&V subsidy-implausible directions of shift given economic theory and the external TFEe estimates. After TFEe adjustment, HALY gains reduced by a third to a half for the two taxes and reversed from an apparent health loss to a health gain for the F&V subsidy. With TFEe adjustment, HALY gains (in 1000's) were: 1,805 (95% uncertainty interval 1,337 to 2,340) for the SAFA tax; 1,671 (1,220 to 2,269) for the sugar tax; and 953 (453 to 1,308) for the F&V subsidy. CONCLUSIONS: If PE matrices are applied in settings beyond where they were derived, addit

Background: Maintain Your Brain (MYB) is a randomized controlled trial of an online multi-modal lifestyle intervention targeting modifiable dementia risk factors with its primary aim being to reduce cognitive decline in an older age cohort. Methods: MYB aims to recruit 8,500 non-demented community dwelling 55 to 77 year olds from the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study in New South Wales, Australia. Participants will be screened for risk factors related to four modules that comprise the MYB intervention: physical activity, nutrition, mental health, and cognitive training. Targeting risk factors will enable interventions to be personalized so that participants receive the most appropriate modules. MYB will run for three years and up to four modules will be delivered sequentially each quarter during year one. Upon completing a module, participants will continue to receive less frequent booster activities for their eligible modules (except for the mental health module) until the end of the trial. Discussion: MYB will be the largest internet-based trial to attempt to prevent cognitive decline and potentially dementia. If successful, MYB will provide a model for not just effective intervention among older adults, but an intervention that is scalable for broad use.

BACKGROUND: Maintain Your Brain (MYB) is a randomized controlled trial of an online multi-modal lifestyle intervention targeting modifiable dementia risk factors with its primary aim being to reduce cognitive decline in an older age cohort. METHODS: MYB aims to recruit 8,500 non-demented community dwelling 55 to 77 year olds from the Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study in New South Wales, Australia. Participants will be screened for risk factors related to four modules that comprise the MYB intervention: physical activity, nutrition, mental health, and cognitive training. Targeting risk factors will enable interventions to be personalized so that participants receive the most appropriate modules. MYB will run for three years and up to four modules will be delivered sequentially each quarter during year one. Upon completing a module, participants will continue to receive less frequent booster activities for their eligible modules (except for the mental health module) until the end of the trial. DISCUSSION: MYB will be the largest internet-based trial to attempt to prevent cognitive decline and potentially dementia. If successful, MYB will provide a model for not just effective intervention among older adults, but an intervention that is scalable for broad use.

BACKGROUND: Doubts exist around the value of compiling league tables for cost-effectiveness results for health interventions, primarily due to methods differences. We aimed to determine if a reasonably coherent league table could be compiled using published studies for one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: Literature searches were conducted to identify NZ-relevant studies published in the peer-reviewed journal literature between 1 January 2010 and 8 October 2017. Only studies with the following metrics were included: cost per quality-adjusted life-year or disability-adjusted life-year or life-year (QALY/DALY/LY). Key study features were abstracted and a summary league table produced which classified the studies in terms of cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: A total of 21 cost-effectiveness studies which met the inclusion criteria were identified. There were some large methodological differences between the studies, particularly in the time horizon (1 year to lifetime) but also discount rates (range 0 to 10%). Nevertheless, we were able to group the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) into general categories of being reported as cost-saving (19%), cost-effective (71%), and not cost-effective (10%). The median ICER (adjusted to 2017 NZ$) was ~ $5000 per QALY/DALY/LY (~US$3500). However, for some interventions, there is high uncertainty around the intervention effectiveness and declining adherence over time. CONCLUSIONS: It seemed possible to produce a reasonably coherent league table for the ICER values from different studies (within broad groupings) in this high-income country. Most interventions were cost-effective and a fifth were cost-saving. Nevertheless, study methodologies did vary widely and researchers need to pay more attention to using standardised methods that allow their results to be included in future league tables.

Background Reducing automobile dependence and improving rates of active transport may reduce the impact of obesogenic environments, thereby decreasing population prevalence of obesity and other diseases where physical inactivity is a risk factor. Increasing the relative cost of driving by an increase in fuel taxation may therefore be a promising public health intervention for obesity prevention. Methods A scoping review of the evidence for obesity or physical activity effect of changes in fuel price or taxation was undertaken. Potential health benefits of an increase in fuel excise taxation in Australia were quantified using Markov modelling to simulate obesity, injury and physical activity related health impacts of a fuel excise taxation intervention for the 2010 Australian population. Health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained and healthcare cost savings from diseases averted were estimated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were reported and results were tested through sensitivity analysis. Results Limited evidence on the effect of policies such as fuel taxation on health-related behaviours currently exists. Only three studies were identified reporting associations between fuel price or taxation and obesity, whilst nine studies reported associations specifically with physical activity, walking or cycling. Estimates of the cross price elasticity of demand for public transport with respect to fuel price vary, with limited consensus within the literature on a probable range for the Australian context. Cost-effectiveness modelling of a AUD0.10 per litre increase in fuel excise taxation using a conservative estimate of cross price elasticity for public transport suggests that the intervention would be cost-effective from a limited societal perspective (237 HALYs gained, AUD2.6 M in healthcare cost savings), measured against a comparator of no additional increase in fuel excise. Under “best case

OBJECTIVE: To review Australian policies on active transport, defined as walking and cycling for utilitarian purposes. To estimate the potential health impact of achieving four active transport policy scenarios. METHODS: A policy review was undertaken, using key words to search government websites. Potential health benefits were quantified using a cohort simulation Markov model to estimate obesity and transport injury-related health effects of an increase in active transport. Health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained and healthcare cost savings from diseases averted were estimated. Budget thresholds to achieve cost-effectiveness were estimated for each scenario. RESULTS: There is broad recognition of the health-related benefits of active transport from all levels of Australian government. Modelling results suggest significant health-related benefits of achieving increased prevalence of active transport. Total HALYs saved assuming a one-year effect ranged from 565 (95%UI 173-985) to 12,105 (95%UI 4,970-19,707), with total healthcare costs averted ranging from $6.6M (95%UI $1.9M-11.3M) to $141.2M (95%UI $53.8M-227.8M). CONCLUSION: Effective interventions that improve rates of active transport may result in substantial healthcare-related cost savings through a decrease in conditions related to obesity. Implications for public health: Significant potential exists for effective and cost-effective interventions that result in more walking and cycling.

BACKGROUND: Reducing automobile dependence and improving rates of active transport may reduce the impact of obesogenic environments, thereby decreasing population prevalence of obesity and other diseases where physical inactivity is a risk factor. Increasing the relative cost of driving by an increase in fuel taxation may therefore be a promising public health intervention for obesity prevention. METHODS: A scoping review of the evidence for obesity or physical activity effect of changes in fuel price or taxation was undertaken. Potential health benefits of an increase in fuel excise taxation in Australia were quantified using Markov modelling to simulate obesity, injury and physical activity related health impacts of a fuel excise taxation intervention for the 2010 Australian population. Health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained and healthcare cost savings from diseases averted were estimated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were reported and results were tested through sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Limited evidence on the effect of policies such as fuel taxation on health-related behaviours currently exists. Only three studies were identified reporting associations between fuel price or taxation and obesity, whilst nine studies reported associations specifically with physical activity, walking or cycling. Estimates of the cross price elasticity of demand for public transport with respect to fuel price vary, with limited consensus within the literature on a probable range for the Australian context. Cost-effectiveness modelling of a AUD0.10 per litre increase in fuel excise taxation using a conservative estimate of cross price elasticity for public transport suggests that the intervention would be cost-effective from a limited societal perspective (237 HALYs gained, AUD2.6 M in healthcare cost savings), measured against a comparator of no additional increase in fuel excise. Under "best case" assumptions, the intervention would be more cost-effective

Physical activity can affect 'need' for healthcare both by reducing the incidence rate of some diseases and by increasing longevity (increasing the time lived at older ages when disease incidence is higher). However, it is common to consider only the first effect, which may overestimate any reduction in need for healthcare. We developed a hybrid micro-simulation lifetable model, which made allowance for both changes in longevity and risk of disease incidence, to estimate the effects of increases in physical activity (all adults meeting guidelines) on measures of healthcare need for diseases for which physical activity is protective. These were compared with estimates made using comparative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which assumed that longevity was fixed. Using the lifetable model, life expectancy increased by 95 days (95% uncertainty intervals: 68-126 days). Estimates of the healthcare need tended to decrease, but the magnitude of the decreases were noticeably smaller than those estimated using CRA methods (e.g. dementia: change in person-years, -0.6%, 95% uncertainty interval -3.7% to +1.6%; change in incident cases, -0.4%, -3.6% to +1.9%; change in person-years (CRA methods), -4.0%, -7.4% to -1.6%). The pattern of results persisted under different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. For most diseases for which physical activity is protective, increases in physical activity are associated with decreases in indices of healthcare need. However, disease onset may be delayed or time lived with disease may increase, such that the decreases in need may be relatively small and less than is sometimes expected.

OBJECTIVES: To model food group consumption and price of diet associated with achieving UK dietary recommendations while deviating as little as possible from the current UK diet, in order to support the redevelopment of the UK food-based dietary guidelines (now called the Eatwell Guide). DESIGN: Optimisation modelling, minimising an objective function of the difference between population mean modelled and current consumption of 125 food groups, and constraints of nutrient and food-based recommendations. SETTING: The UK. POPULATION: Adults aged 19 years and above from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of diet consisting of major foods groups and price of the optimised diet. RESULTS: The optimised diet has an increase in consumption of 'potatoes, bread, rice, pasta and other starchy carbohydrates' (+69%) and 'fruit and vegetables' (+54%) and reductions in consumption of 'beans, pulses, fish, eggs, meat and other proteins' (-24%), 'dairy and alternatives' (-21%) and 'foods high in fat and sugar' (-53%). Results within food groups show considerable variety (eg, +90% for beans and pulses, -78% for red meat). The modelled diet would cost £5.99 (£5.93 to £6.05) per adult per day, very similar to the cost of the current diet: £6.02 (£5.96 to £6.08). The optimised diet would result in increased consumption of n-3 fatty acids and most micronutrients (including iron and folate), but decreased consumption of zinc and small decreases in consumption of calcium and riboflavin. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve the UK dietary recommendations would require large changes in the average diet of UK adults, including in food groups where current average consumption is well within the recommended range (eg, processed meat) or where there are no current recommendations (eg, dairy). These large changes in the diet will not lead to significant changes in the price of the diet.

BACKGROUND: The DisMod II model is designed to estimate epidemiological parameters on diseases where measured data are incomplete and has been used to provide estimates of disease incidence for the Global Burden of Disease study. We assessed the external validity of the DisMod II model by comparing modelled estimates of the incidence of first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in England in 2010 with estimates derived from a linked dataset of hospital records and death certificates. METHODS: Inputs for DisMod II were prevalence rates of ever having had an AMI taken from a population health survey, total mortality rates and AMI mortality rates taken from death certificates. By definition, remission rates were zero. We estimated first AMI incidence in an external dataset from England in 2010 using a linked dataset including all hospital admissions and death certificates since 1998. 95 % confidence intervals were derived around estimates from the external dataset and DisMod II estimates based on sampling variance and reported uncertainty in prevalence estimates respectively. RESULTS: Estimates of the incidence rate for the whole population were higher in the DisMod II results than the external dataset (+54 % for men and +26 % for women). Age-specific results showed that the DisMod II results over-estimated incidence for all but the oldest age groups. Confidence intervals for the DisMod II and external dataset estimates did not overlap for most age groups. CONCLUSION: By comparison with AMI incidence rates in England, DisMod II did not achieve external validity for age-specific incidence rates, but did provide global estimates of incidence that are of similar magnitude to measured estimates. The model should be used with caution when estimating age-specific incidence rates.

Introduction: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a growing socioeconomic problem worldwide. Early diagnosis and prevention of this devastating disease have become a research priority. Consequently, the identification of clinically significant and sensitive blood biomarkers for its early detection is very important. Apolipoprotein E (APOE) is a well-known and established genetic risk factor for late-onset AD; however, the impact of the protein level on AD risk is unclear. We assessed the utility of plasma ApoE protein as a potential biomarker of AD in the large, well-characterised Australian Imaging, Biomarkers and Lifestyle Study of Ageing (AIBL) cohort. Methods: Total plasma ApoE levels were measured at 18-month follow-up using a commercial bead-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay: the Luminex xMAP human apolipoprotein kit. ApoE levels were then analysed between clinical classifications (healthy controls, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD) and correlated with the data available from the AIBL cohort, including but not limited to APOE genotype and cerebral amyloid burden. Results: A significant decrease in ApoE levels was found in the AD group compared with the healthy controls. These results validate previously published ApoE protein levels at baseline obtained using different methodology. ApoE protein levels were also significantly affected, depending on APOE genotypes, with ε2/ε2 having the highest protein levels and ε4/ε4 having the lowest. Plasma ApoE levels were significantly negatively correlated with cerebral amyloid burden as measured by neuroimaging. Conclusions: ApoE is decreased in individuals with AD compared with healthy controls at 18-month follow-up, and this trend is consistent with our results published at baseline. The influence of APOE genotype and sex on the protein levels are also explored. It is clear that ApoE is a strong player in the aetiology of this disease at both the protein and genetic levels.

OBJECTIVE: Functional data analysis (FDA) is a forecasting approach that, to date, has not been applied to obesity, and that may provide more accurate forecasting analysis to manage uncertainty in public health. This paper uses FDA to provide projections of Body Mass Index (BMI), overweight and obesity in an Australian population through to 2019. METHODS: Data from the South Australian Monitoring and Surveillance System (January 2003 to December 2012, n=51,618 adults) were collected via telephone interview survey. FDA was conducted in four steps: 1) age-gender specific BMIs for each year were smoothed using a weighted regression; 2) the functional principal components decomposition was applied to estimate the basis functions; 3) an exponential smoothing state space model was used for forecasting the coefficient series; and 4) forecast coefficients were combined with the basis function. RESULTS: The forecast models suggest that between 2012 and 2019 average BMI will increase from 27.2 kg/m(2) to 28.0 kg/m(2) in males and 26.4 kg/m(2) to 27.6 kg/m(2) in females. The prevalence of obesity is forecast to increase by 6-7 percentage points by 2019 (to 28.7% in males and 29.2% in females). CONCLUSIONS: Projections identify age-gender groups at greatest risk of obesity over time. The novel approach will be useful to facilitate more accurate planning and policy development.

Objective Biomarkers for Alzheimer disease (AD) can detect the disease pathology in asymptomatic subjects and individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but their cognitive prognosis remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the prognostic value of β‐amyloid imaging, alone and in combination with memory performance, hippocampal atrophy, and apolipoprotein E ε4 status in nondemented, older individuals. Methods A total of 183 healthy individuals (age = 72.0 ± 7.26 years) and 87 participants with MCI (age = 73.7 ± 8.27) in the Australian Imaging, Biomarkers, and Lifestyle study of ageing were studied. Clinical reclassification was performed after 3 years, blind to biomarker findings. β‐Amyloid imaging was considered positive if the 11C‐Pittsburgh compound B cortical to reference ratio was ≥1.5. Results Thirteen percent of healthy persons progressed (15 to MCI, 8 to dementia), and 59% of the MCI cohort progressed to probable AD. Multivariate analysis showed β‐amyloid imaging as the single variable most strongly associated with progression. Of combinations, subtle memory impairment (Z score = −0.5 to −1.5) with a positive amyloid scan was most strongly associated with progression in healthy individuals (odds ratio [OR] = 16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.7–68; positive predictive value [PPV] = 50%, 95% CI = 19–81; negative predictive value [NPV] = 94%, 95% CI = 88–98). Almost all amnestic MCI subjects (Z score ≤ −1.5) with a positive amyloid scan developed AD (OR = ∞; PPV = 86%, 95% CI = 72–95; NPV = 100%, 95% CI = 80–100). Hippocampal atrophy and ε4 status did not add further predictive value. Interpretation Subtle memory impairment with a positive β‐amyloid scan identifies healthy individuals at high risk for MCI or AD. Clearly amnestic patients with a positive amyloid scan have prodromal AD and a poor prognosis for dementia within 3 years. Ann Neurol 2013;74:905–913

INTRODUCTION: Excessive alcohol consumption is a public health problem in many countries including Denmark, where 6% of the burden of disease is due to alcohol consumption, according to the new estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. Pricing policies, including tax increases, have been shown to effectively decrease the level of alcohol consumption. METHODS: We analysed the cost-effectiveness of three different scenarios of changed taxation of alcoholic beverages in Denmark (20% and 100% increase and 10% decrease). The lifetime health effects are estimated as the difference in disability-adjusted life years between a Danish population that continues to drink alcohol at current rates and an identical population that changes their alcohol consumption due to changes in taxation. Calculation of cost offsets related to treatment of alcohol-related diseases and injuries, was based on health care system costs from Danish national registers. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated by calculating cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) compared to current practice. RESULTS: The two scenarios of 20% and 100% increased taxation could avert 20,000 DALY and 95,500 DALY respectively, and yield cost savings of -€119 million and -€575 million, over the life time of the Danish population. Both scenarios are thus cost saving. The tax decrease scenario would lead to 10,100 added DALY and an added cost of €60 million. For all three interventions the health effects build up and reach their maximum around 15-20 years after implementation of the tax change. CONCLUSION: Our results show that decreased taxation will lead to an increased burden of disease and related increases in health care costs, whereas both a doubling of the current level of alcohol taxation and a scenario where taxation is only increased by 20% can be cost-saving ways to reduce alcohol related morbidity and mortality. Our results support the growing evidence that population strategies are cost-effective and should be c

INTRODUCTION: Excessive alcohol consumption increases the risk of many diseases and injuries, and the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study estimated that 6% of the burden of disease in Denmark is due to alcohol consumption. Alcohol consumption thus places a considerable economic burden on society. METHODS: We analysed the cost-effectiveness of six interventions aimed at preventing alcohol abuse in the adult Danish population: 30% increased taxation, increased minimum legal drinking age, advertisement bans, limited hours of retail sales, and brief and longer individual interventions. Potential health effects were evaluated as changes in incidence, prevalence and mortality of alcohol-related diseases and injuries. Net costs were calculated as the sum of intervention costs and cost offsets related to treatment of alcohol-related outcomes, based on health care costs from Danish national registers. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated by calculating incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each intervention. We also created an intervention pathway to determine the optimal sequence of interventions and their combined effects. RESULTS: Three of the analysed interventions (advertising bans, limited hours of retail sales and taxation) were cost-saving, and the remaining three interventions were all cost-effective. Net costs varied from € -17 million per year for advertisement ban to € 8 million for longer individual intervention. Effectiveness varied from 115 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year for minimum legal drinking age to 2,900 DALY for advertisement ban. The total annual effect if all interventions were implemented would be 7,300 DALY, with a net cost of € -30 million. CONCLUSION: Our results show that interventions targeting the whole population were more effective than individual-focused interventions. A ban on alcohol advertising, limited hours of retail sale and increased taxation had the highest probability of being cost-saving and should thus be f

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the c

Cost-effective strategies to maintain healthy active lifestyle in aging populations are required to address the global burden of age-related diseases. ASPREE will examine whether the potential primary prevention benefits of low dose aspirin outweigh the risks in older healthy individuals. Our primary hypothesis is that daily oral 100. mg enteric-coated aspirin will extend a composite primary endpoint termed 'disability-free life' including onset of dementia, total mortality, or persistent disability in at least one of the Katz Activities of Daily Living in 19,000 healthy participants aged 65. years and above ('US minorities') and 70. years and above (non-'US minorities'). ASPREE is a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of oral 100. mg enteric-coated acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) or matching placebo being conducted in Australian and US community settings on individuals free of dementia, disability and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. Secondary endpoints are all-cause and cause specific mortality, fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, fatal and non-fatal cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer), dementia, mild cognitive impairment, depression, physical disability, and clinically significant bleeding. To 20 September 2013 14,383 participants have been recruited. Recruitment and study completion are anticipated in July 2014 and December 2018 respectively. In contrast to other aspirin trials that have largely focused on cardiovascular endpoints, ASPREE has a unique composite primary endpoint to better capture the overall risk and benefit of aspirin to extend healthy independent lifespan in older adults in the US and Australia. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

Background: Breastfeeding has been shown consistently in observational studies to be protective of overweight and obesity in later life. This study aimed to investigate the association between breastfeeding duration and weight status in a national sample of Australian children and adolescents.Methods: A secondary analysis of the 2007 Australian National Children’s Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey data involving 2066, males and females aged 9 to 16 years from all Australian states and territories. The effect of breastfeeding duration on weight status was estimated using multivariate logistic regression analysis.Results: Compared to those who were never breastfed, children breastfed for =6 months were significantly less likely to be overweight (adjusted odds ratio: 0.64, 95%CI: 0.45, 0.91) or obese (adjusted odds ratio: 0.51, 95%CI: 0.29, 0.90) in later childhood, after adjustment for maternal characteristics (age, education and ethnicity) and children’s age, gender, mean energy intake, level of moderate and vigorous physical activity, screen time and sleep duration.Conclusions: Breastfeeding for 6 or more months appears to be protective against later overweight and obesity in this population of Australian children. The beneficial short-term health outcomes of breastfeeding for the infant are well recognised and this study provides further observational evidence of a potential long-term health outcome and additional justification for the continued support and promotion of breastfeeding to six months and beyond.

Background Prolonged television (TV) viewing time is unfavourably associated with mortality outcomes, particularly for cardiovascular disease, but the impact on life expectancy has not been quantifi ed. The authors estimate the extent to which TV viewing time reduces life expectancy in Australia, 2008. Methods The authors constructed a life table model that incorporates a previously reported mortality risk associated with TV time. Data were from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study, a national population-based observational survey that started in 1999-2000. The authors modelled impacts of changes in population average TV viewing time on life expectancy at birth. Results The amount of TV viewed in Australia in 2008 reduced life expectancy at birth by 1.8 years (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8.4 days to 3.7 years) for men and 1.5 years (95% UI: 6.8 days to 3.1 years) for women. Compared with persons who watch no TV, those who spend a lifetime average of 6 h/day watching TV can expect to live 4.8 years (95% UI: 11 days to 10.4 years) less. On average, every single hour of TV viewed after the age of 25 reduces the viewer's life expectancy by 21.8 (95% UI: 0.3-44.7) min. This study is limited by the low precision with which the relationship between TV viewing time and mortality is currently known. Conclusions TV viewing time may be associated with a loss of life that is comparable to other major chronic disease risk factors such as physical inactivity and obesity.

Objective: To determine the dietary patterns of a national sample of 2–8-year-old Australian children and to establish whether breast-feeding is associated with dietary patterns in this age group.Design: Cross-sectional study using 24 h recall data from the 2007 Australian National Children’s Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey.Setting: Australia.Subjects: A total of 2287 children aged 2–8 years.Results: Principal component factor analysis identified three distinct patterns. The ‘Non-core food groups’ pattern included food groups such as whole-fat dairy products, cheese, medium–high sugar-sweetened breakfast cereals and sweet biscuits, no fruit, reduced/low-fat dairy products and wholegrain bread/rolls. The ‘Healthy, meat and vegetable’ pattern included vegetables, red meat, fruit and wholegrain bread/rolls and was inversely associated with take-away foods and carbonated sugar-sweetened beverages. The ‘Combination’ pattern contained many food groups including candy (not chocolate based), pasta/rice products, nuts/seeds, cakes and chocolate, but no fruit or vegetables. Of the 2287 children, 2064 (89.3%) had been breast-fed. A positive association was found betweenbreast-feeding and the healthy, meat and vegetable pattern (r=0.267) but not with the other two patterns. Higher scores on this pattern were also associated with younger age, lower BMI, higher birth weight, high likelihood of being in the less-disadvantaged Socio-economic Indexes for Areas category and less likelihood of the child’s parents having a lower educational level.Conclusions: These results provide suggestive evidence that breast-feeding during infancy is associated with a healthy dietary pattern in childhood and offers a likely pathway to explain the previously reported association between breast-feeding and chronic disease.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 3rd leading cause of cancer death in the United States and the 2nd leading cause of cancer death in Australia. Environmental factors play important roles in the multiple-stage process of CRC and nutritional intervention has been identified as playing a major role in its prevention. The aim of this study was to review systematically the scientific evidence from all studies conducted over the last decade that examined effects of garlic on CRC. Levels of evidence were ranked from level I to level V according to study designs and the quality of each study was assessed against a set of quality criteria based on those used by the National Health and Medical Research Council in Australia. One randomized controlled trial (RCT, level II) reported a statistically significant 29% reduction in both size and number of colon adenomas in CRC patients taking aged garlic extract. Five of 8 case control/cohort studies (level III) suggested a protective effect of high intake of raw/cooked garlic and 2 of 8 of these studies suggested a protective effect for distal colon. A published meta-analysis (level III) of 7 of these studies confirmed this inverse association, with a 30% reduction in relative risk. Eleven animal studies (level V) demonstrated a significant anticarcinogenic effect of garlic and/or its active constituents. On balance, there is consistent scientific evidence derived from RCT of animal studies reporting protective effects of garlic on CRC despite great heterogeneity of measures of intakes among human epidemiological studies.