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1. Atmospheric water recycling an essential feature of critical natural asset stewardship

Author: Keys, Patrick W., Collins, Pamela M., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Keys, Patrick W., Collins, Pamela M., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, and Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
Abstract: Non-technical summary. In this paper, we explore how critically important ecosystems on the land provide evaporation to the atmosphere, which will later fall as precipitation elsewhere. Using a model-based analysis that tracks water flowing through the atmosphere, we find that more than two-thirds of the precipitation over critically important ecosystem areas is supplied by evaporation from other land. Likewise, more than 40% of the evaporation from critically important ecosystems falls as precipitation on other land. We conclude our work by discussing the policy implications for how these critically important ecosystems connect spatially distant wild and working lands via the atmospheric water cycle.Technical summary. Global ecosystems are interconnected via atmospheric water vapor flows. Land use change can modify evaporation from land, altering atmospheric moisture recycling and potentially leading to significant changes in downwind precipitation and associated ecological impacts. We combine insights on global ecosystem-regulated moisture recycling with an analysis of critical natural assets (CNA, the 30% of global land providing most of nature's contributions to people) to reveal the sources and sinks of atmospheric water cycle regulation. We find that 65% of the precipitation over CNA is supplied by evaporation from other land areas. Likewise, CNA regions supply critical moisture as precipitation to terrestrial natural ecosystems and production systems worldwide, with 44% of CNA evaporation falling on terrestrial surfaces. Specifically, the Congo River basin emerges as a hotspot of overlap between local atmospheric water cycle maintenance and concentration of nature's contributions to people. Our results suggest global priority areas for conservation efforts beyond and in support of CNA, emphasizing the importance of sparsely populated managed forests and rangelands, along with wild forests, for fostering moisture recycling to and within CNA. This work also und
Published: 2024
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2. Integrated modeling of nature's role in human well-being : A research agenda

Author: Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Polasky, Stephen, Alkemade, Rob, Burgess, Neil D., Cheung, William W.L., Fetzer, Ingo, Harfoot, Mike, Hertel, Thomas W., Hill, Samantha L.L., Andrew Johnson, Justin, Janse, Jan H., José v. Jeetze, Patrick, Kim, Hye Jin, Kuiper, Jan J., Lonsdorf, Eric, Leclère, David, Mulligan, Mark, Peterson, Garry D., Popp, Alexander, Roe, Stephanie, Schipper, Aafke M., Snäll, Tord, van Soesbergen, Arnout, Soterroni, Aline C., Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Visconti, Piero, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Wells, Geoff, Pereira, Henrique M., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Polasky, Stephen, Alkemade, Rob, Burgess, Neil D., Cheung, William W.L., Fetzer, Ingo, Harfoot, Mike, Hertel, Thomas W., Hill, Samantha L.L., Andrew Johnson, Justin, Janse, Jan H., José v. Jeetze, Patrick, Kim, Hye Jin, Kuiper, Jan J., Lonsdorf, Eric, Leclère, David, Mulligan, Mark, Peterson, Garry D., Popp, Alexander, Roe, Stephanie, Schipper, Aafke M., Snäll, Tord, van Soesbergen, Arnout, Soterroni, Aline C., Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Visconti, Piero, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Wells, Geoff, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Abstract: Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community's ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.
Published: 2024

3. Integrated modeling of nature's role in human well-being: A research agenda

Author: Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Polasky, Stephen, Alkemade, Rob, Burgess, Neil D., Cheung, William W.L., Fetzer, Ingo, Harfoot, Mike, Hertel, Thomas W., Hill, Samantha L.L., Andrew Johnson, Justin, Janse, Jan H., José v. Jeetze, Patrick, Kim, Hye Jin, Kuiper, Jan J., Lonsdorf, Eric, Leclère, David, Mulligan, Mark, Peterson, Garry D., Popp, Alexander, Roe, Stephanie, Schipper, Aafke M., Snäll, Tord, van Soesbergen, Arnout, Soterroni, Aline C., Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Visconti, Piero, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Wells, Geoff, Pereira, Henrique M., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Polasky, Stephen, Alkemade, Rob, Burgess, Neil D., Cheung, William W.L., Fetzer, Ingo, Harfoot, Mike, Hertel, Thomas W., Hill, Samantha L.L., Andrew Johnson, Justin, Janse, Jan H., José v. Jeetze, Patrick, Kim, Hye Jin, Kuiper, Jan J., Lonsdorf, Eric, Leclère, David, Mulligan, Mark, Peterson, Garry D., Popp, Alexander, Roe, Stephanie, Schipper, Aafke M., Snäll, Tord, van Soesbergen, Arnout, Soterroni, Aline C., Stehfest, Elke, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Visconti, Piero, Wang-Erlandsson, Lan, Wells, Geoff, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Abstract: Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community's ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.
Published: 2024

4. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob
Published: 2024

5. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M. D., Kim, HyeJin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L. L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M. D., Kim, HyeJin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L. L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob
Abstract: Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Published: 2024

6. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author: Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, HyeJin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, HyeJin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob
Abstract: Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Published: 2024

7. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people : Modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William W. L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T. J., Leadley, Paul, Leclere, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C. C., Alava, Juan Jose, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumalia, U. Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique M., Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William W. L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T. J., Leadley, Paul, Leclere, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C. C., Alava, Juan Jose, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumalia, U. Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature - Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life.
Published: 2023
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8. Diverse values of nature for sustainability

Author: Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, SoEun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra-Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann-Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, Zent, Eglee, Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, SoEun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra-Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann-Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, and Zent, Eglee
Abstract: Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever4. Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature’s values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals6, predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature7. Arguably, a ‘values crisis’ underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change8, pandemic emergence9 and socio-environmental injustices10. On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature’s diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions7,11. Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures.
Published: 2023

9. Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps

Author: Willcock, Simon, Hooftman, Danny A.P., Neugarten, Rachel A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Barredo, José I., Hickler, Thomas, Kindermann, Georg, Lewis, Amy R., Lindeskog, Mats, Martínez-López, Javier, Bullock, James M., Willcock, Simon, Hooftman, Danny A.P., Neugarten, Rachel A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Barredo, José I., Hickler, Thomas, Kindermann, Georg, Lewis, Amy R., Lindeskog, Mats, Martínez-López, Javier, and Bullock, James M.
Abstract: Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local- to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability.
Published: 2023

10. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique M., Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.
Published: 2023

11. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, Hyejin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-kramer, Rebecca, Belder, Eefje Den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Kim, Hyejin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-kramer, Rebecca, Belder, Eefje Den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people and quality of life.
Published: 2023
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12. Diverse values of nature for sustainability

Author: Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, So Eun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, Zent, Eglee, Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, So Eun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, and Zent, Eglee
Abstract: Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever4. Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature’s values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals6, predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature7. Arguably, a ‘values crisis’ underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change8, pandemic emergence9 and socio-environmental injustices10. On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature’s diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions7,11. Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures.
Published: 2023

13. Influences of Satellite Sensor and Scale on Derivation of Ecosystem Functional Types and Diversity

Author: Liu, Lingling, Smith, Jeffrey R., Armstrong, Amanda H., Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo, Epstein, Howard E., Echeverri, Alejandra, Langhans, Kelley E., Schmitt, Rafael J. P., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Liu, Lingling, Smith, Jeffrey R., Armstrong, Amanda H., Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo, Epstein, Howard E., Echeverri, Alejandra, Langhans, Kelley E., Schmitt, Rafael J. P., and Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
Abstract: Satellite-derived Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs) are increasingly used in ecology and conservation to characterize ecosystem heterogeneity. The diversity of EFTs, also known as Ecosystem Functional Diversity (EFD), has been suggested both as a potential metric of ecosystem-level biodiversity and as a predictor for ecosystem functioning, ecosystem services, and resilience. However, the impact of key methodological choices on patterns of EFTs and EFD have not been formally assessed. Using Costa Rica as a study system, we compared EFTs and EFD, derived from MODIS and Landsat data using different methodological assumptions, at both national and local extents. Our results showed that the regional spatial patterns of EFTs and EFD derived from 250 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat are notably different. The selection of sensors for deriving EFTs and EFD is dependent on the study area, data quality, and the research objective. Given its finer spatial resolution, Landsat has greater capacity to differentiate more EFTs than MODIS, though MODIS could be a better choice in frequently cloudy areas due to its shorter revisiting time. We also found that the selection of spatial extent used to derive EFD is critical, as smaller extents (e.g., at a local rather than a national scale) can show much higher diversity. However, diversity levels derived at smaller extents appear to be nested within the diversity levels derived at larger extents. As EFTs and EFD continue to develop as a tool for ecosystem ecology, we highlight the important methodological choices to ensure that these metrics best fit research objectives.
Published: 2023

14. Diverse values of nature for sustainability

Author: Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, So Eun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, Zent, Eglee, Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, So Eun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, and Zent, Eglee
Abstract: Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being 1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis 3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever 4. Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature’s values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) 5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals 6, predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature 7. Arguably, a ‘values crisis’ underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change 8, pandemic emergence 9 and socio-environmental injustices 10. On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature’s diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions 7,11. Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures.
Published: 2023

15. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people : Modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, Hye Jin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique M., Kim, Hye Jin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life.
Published: 2023

16. Diverse values of nature for sustainability

Author: Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, So Eun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, Zent, Eglee, Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Anderson, Christopher B., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Christie, Michael, González-Jiménez, David, Martin, Adrian, Raymond, Christopher M., Termansen, Mette, Vatn, Arild, Athayde, Simone, Baptiste, Brigitte, Barton, David N., Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O’Farrell, Patrick, Subramanian, Suneetha M., van Noordwijk, Meine, Ahn, So Eun, Amaruzaman, Sacha, Amin, Ariane M., Arias-Arévalo, Paola, Arroyo-Robles, Gabriela, Cantú-Fernández, Mariana, Castro, Antonio J., Contreras, Victoria, De Vos, Alta, Dendoncker, Nicolas, Engel, Stefanie, Eser, Uta, Faith, Daniel P., Filyushkina, Anna, Ghazi, Houda, Gómez-Baggethun, Erik, Gould, Rachelle K., Guibrunet, Louise, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hahn, Thomas, Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Hernández-Blanco, Marcello, Horcea-Milcu, Andra Ioana, Huambachano, Mariaelena, Wicher, Natalia Lutti Hummel, Aydın, Cem İskender, Islar, Mine, Koessler, Ann Kathrin, Kenter, Jasper O., Kosmus, Marina, Lee, Heera, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Lenzi, Dominic, Lliso, Bosco, Mannetti, Lelani M., Merçon, Juliana, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofía, Mukherjee, Nibedita, Muraca, Barbara, Muradian, Roldan, Murali, Ranjini, Nelson, Sara H., Nemogá-Soto, Gabriel R., Ngouhouo-Poufoun, Jonas, Niamir, Aidin, Nuesiri, Emmanuel, Nyumba, Tobias O., Özkaynak, Begüm, Palomo, Ignacio, Pandit, Ram, Pawłowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Porter-Bolland, Luciana, Quaas, Martin, Rode, Julian, Rozzi, Ricardo, Sachdeva, Sonya, Samakov, Aibek, Schaafsma, Marije, Sitas, Nadia, Ungar, Paula, Yiu, Evonne, Yoshida, Yuki, and Zent, Eglee
Abstract: Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being 1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis 3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever 4. Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature’s values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) 5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals 6, predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature 7. Arguably, a ‘values crisis’ underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change 8, pandemic emergence 9 and socio-environmental injustices 10. On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature’s diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions 7,11. Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures.
Published: 2023

17. Value Expression in Decision-Making

Author: Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, Iranah, Pricila, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, and Iranah, Pricila
Abstract: This chapter links diverse values of nature as communicated through different value articulation (“valuing” and valuation) processes to decision-making and its outcomes. It reviews the underlying causes of treating impacts on nature as external to, and ignored in, decisions by current political, economic and socio-cultural actors and institutions (i.e., conventions, norms and rules), and describes how on-the-ground drivers of nature’s decline can be transformed towards recovery, focusing on land and sea use. The modalities and practice of explicit valuation of nature (preceding chapter) in support of decisions, and the decision-making processes themselves, may need to further evolve to achieve global sustainability goals, the CBD 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature and the recent Kunming Declaration of the CBD., IPBES
Published: 2022
Full Text: View/download PDF

18. Value Expression in Decision-Making

Author: Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, Iranah, Pricila, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, and Iranah, Pricila
Abstract: This chapter links diverse values of nature as communicated through different value articulation (“valuing” and valuation) processes to decision-making and its outcomes. It reviews the underlying causes of treating impacts on nature as external to, and ignored in, decisions by current political, economic and socio-cultural actors and institutions (i.e., conventions, norms and rules), and describes how on-the-ground drivers of nature’s decline can be transformed towards recovery, focusing on land and sea use. The modalities and practice of explicit valuation of nature (preceding chapter) in support of decisions, and the decision-making processes themselves, may need to further evolve to achieve global sustainability goals, the CBD 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature and the recent Kunming Declaration of the CBD., IPBES
Published: 2022
Full Text: View/download PDF

19. Archetype models upscale understanding of natural pest control response to land-use change.

Author: Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Marion, Glenn, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Ekroos, Johan, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S, Meyer, Carsten, O'Rourke, Megan E, Pontarp, Mikael, Poveda, Katja, Seppelt, Ralf, Smith, Henrik G, Walters, Richard J, Clough, Yann, Martin, Emily A, Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Marion, Glenn, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Ekroos, Johan, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S, Meyer, Carsten, O'Rourke, Megan E, Pontarp, Mikael, Poveda, Katja, Seppelt, Ralf, Smith, Henrik G, Walters, Richard J, Clough, Yann, and Martin, Emily A
Abstract: Control of crop pests by shifting host plant availability and natural enemy activity at landscape scales has great potential to enhance the sustainability of agriculture. However, mainstreaming natural pest control requires improved understanding of how its benefits can be realized across a variety of agroecological contexts. Empirical studies suggest significant but highly variable responses of natural pest control to land-use change. Current ecological models are either too specific to provide insight across agroecosystems or too generic to guide management with actionable predictions. We suggest obtaining the full benefit of available empirical, theoretical, and methodological knowledge by combining trait-mediated understanding from correlative studies with the explicit representation of causal relationships achieved by mechanistic modeling. To link these frameworks, we adapt the concept of archetypes, or context-specific generalizations, from sustainability science. Similar responses of natural pest control to land-use gradients across cases that share key attributes, such as functional traits of focal organisms, indicate general processes that drive system behavior in a context-sensitive manner. Based on such observations of natural pest control, a systematic definition of archetypes can provide the basis for mechanistic models of intermediate generality that cover all major agroecosystems worldwide. Example applications demonstrate the potential for upscaling understanding and improving predictions of natural pest control, based on knowledge transfer and scientific synthesis. A broader application of this mechanistic archetype approach promises to enhance ecology's contribution to natural resource management across diverse regions and social-ecological contexts.
Published: 2022

20. Increasing crop field size does not consistently exacerbate insect pest problems.

Author: Rosenheim, Jay A, Rosenheim, Jay A, Cluff, Emma, Lippey, Mia K, Cass, Bodil N, Paredes, Daniel, Parsa, Soroush, Karp, Daniel S, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Rosenheim, Jay A, Rosenheim, Jay A, Cluff, Emma, Lippey, Mia K, Cass, Bodil N, Paredes, Daniel, Parsa, Soroush, Karp, Daniel S, and Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
Abstract: Increasing diversity on farms can enhance many key ecosystem services to and from agriculture, and natural control of arthropod pests is often presumed to be among them. The expectation that increasing the size of monocultural crop plantings exacerbates the impact of pests is common throughout the agroecological literature. However, the theoretical basis for this expectation is uncertain; mechanistic mathematical models suggest instead that increasing field size can have positive, negative, neutral, or even nonlinear effects on arthropod pest densities. Here, we report a broad survey of crop field-size effects: across 14 pest species, 5 crops, and 20,000 field years of observations, we quantify the impact of field size on pest densities, pesticide applications, and crop yield. We find no evidence that larger fields cause consistently worse pest impacts. The most common outcome (9 of 14 species) was for pest severity to be independent of field size; larger fields resulted in less severe pest problems for four species, and only one species exhibited the expected trend of larger fields worsening pest severity. Importantly, pest responses to field size strongly correlated with their responses to the fraction of the surrounding landscape planted to the focal crop, suggesting that shared ecological processes produce parallel responses to crop simplification across spatial scales. We conclude that the idea that larger field sizes consistently disrupt natural pest control services is without foundation in either the theoretical or empirical record.
Published: 2022

21. Value Expression in Decision-Making

Author: Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, Iranah, Pricila, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, and Iranah, Pricila
Abstract: This chapter links diverse values of nature as communicated through different value articulation (“valuing” and valuation) processes to decision-making and its outcomes. It reviews the underlying causes of treating impacts on nature as external to, and ignored in, decisions by current political, economic and socio-cultural actors and institutions (i.e., conventions, norms and rules), and describes how on-the-ground drivers of nature’s decline can be transformed towards recovery, focusing on land and sea use. The modalities and practice of explicit valuation of nature (preceding chapter) in support of decisions, and the decision-making processes themselves, may need to further evolve to achieve global sustainability goals, the CBD 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature and the recent Kunming Declaration of the CBD., IPBES
Published: 2022
Full Text: View/download PDF

22. Value Expression in Decision-Making

Author: Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, Iranah, Pricila, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, and Iranah, Pricila
Abstract: This chapter links diverse values of nature as communicated through different value articulation (“valuing” and valuation) processes to decision-making and its outcomes. It reviews the underlying causes of treating impacts on nature as external to, and ignored in, decisions by current political, economic and socio-cultural actors and institutions (i.e., conventions, norms and rules), and describes how on-the-ground drivers of nature’s decline can be transformed towards recovery, focusing on land and sea use. The modalities and practice of explicit valuation of nature (preceding chapter) in support of decisions, and the decision-making processes themselves, may need to further evolve to achieve global sustainability goals, the CBD 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature and the recent Kunming Declaration of the CBD., IPBES
Published: 2022
Full Text: View/download PDF

23. Value Expression in Decision-Making

Author: Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, Iranah, Pricila, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Lazos Chavero, Elena, van Noordwijk, Meine, Engel, Stefanie, Girvan, Alexander, Hahn, Thomas, Leimona, Beria, Lele, Sharachchandra, Muradian, Roldan, Niamir, Aidin, Özkaynak, Begüm, Pawlowska-Mainville, Agnieszka, Ungar, Paula, Cárdenas, Juan Camilo, Baker, Susan, Nelson, Sara, Aydin, Cem İskender, and Iranah, Pricila
Abstract: This chapter links diverse values of nature as communicated through different value articulation (“valuing” and valuation) processes to decision-making and its outcomes. It reviews the underlying causes of treating impacts on nature as external to, and ignored in, decisions by current political, economic and socio-cultural actors and institutions (i.e., conventions, norms and rules), and describes how on-the-ground drivers of nature’s decline can be transformed towards recovery, focusing on land and sea use. The modalities and practice of explicit valuation of nature (preceding chapter) in support of decisions, and the decision-making processes themselves, may need to further evolve to achieve global sustainability goals, the CBD 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature and the recent Kunming Declaration of the CBD., IPBES
Published: 2022
Full Text: View/download PDF

24. Conservation needs to integrate knowledge across scales

Author: Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Brauman, Kate A., Cavender-Bares, Jeannine, Díaz, Sandra, Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira, Enquist, Brian J., Garibaldi, Lucas A., Geldmann, Jonas, Halpern, Benjamin S., Hertel, Thomas W., Khoury, Colin K., Krieger, Joana Madeira, Lavorel, Sandra, Mueller, Thomas, Neugarten, Rachel A., Pinto-Ledezma, Jesús, Polasky, Stephen, Purvis, Andy, Reyes-García, Victoria, Roehrdanz, Patrick R., Shannon, Lynne J., Shaw, M. Rebecca, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Tylianakis, Jason M., Verburg, Peter H., Visconti, Piero, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Brauman, Kate A., Cavender-Bares, Jeannine, Díaz, Sandra, Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira, Enquist, Brian J., Garibaldi, Lucas A., Geldmann, Jonas, Halpern, Benjamin S., Hertel, Thomas W., Khoury, Colin K., Krieger, Joana Madeira, Lavorel, Sandra, Mueller, Thomas, Neugarten, Rachel A., Pinto-Ledezma, Jesús, Polasky, Stephen, Purvis, Andy, Reyes-García, Victoria, Roehrdanz, Patrick R., Shannon, Lynne J., Shaw, M. Rebecca, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Tylianakis, Jason M., Verburg, Peter H., Visconti, Piero, and Zafra-Calvo, Noelia
Published: 2022
Full Text: View/download PDF

25. Summary for Policymakers of the Methodological Assessment Report on the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Author: Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, Vatn, Arild, Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, and Vatn, Arild
Published: 2022

26. The role of the values of nature and valuation for addressing the biodiversity crisis and navigating towards more just and sustainable futures

Author: Balvanera, Patricia, Pascual, Unai, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Guibrunet, Louise, Lliso, Bosco, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofia, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, Vatn, Arild, Contreras, Victoria, Balvanera, Patricia, Pascual, Unai, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Guibrunet, Louise, Lliso, Bosco, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofia, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, Vatn, Arild, and Contreras, Victoria
Published: 2022

27. Summary for Policymakers of the Methodological Assessment Report on the Diverse Values and Valuation of Nature of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Author: Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, Vatn, Arild, Pascual, Unai, Balvanera, Patricia, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, and Vatn, Arild
Published: 2022

28. The role of the values of nature and valuation for addressing the biodiversity crisis and navigating towards more just and sustainable futures

Author: Balvanera, Patricia, Pascual, Unai, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Guibrunet, Louise, Lliso, Bosco, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofia, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, Vatn, Arild, Contreras, Victoria, Balvanera, Patricia, Pascual, Unai, Christie, Michael, Baptiste, Brigitte, González-Jiménez, David, Guibrunet, Louise, Lliso, Bosco, Monroy-Sais, Ana Sofia, Anderson, Christopher B., Athayde, Simone, Barton, David N., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Jacobs, Sander, Kelemen, Eszter, Kumar, Ritesh, Lazos, Elena, Martin, Adrian, Mwampamba, Tuyeni H., Nakangu, Barbara, O'Farrell, Patrick, Raymond, Christopher M., Subramanian, Suneetha M., Termansen, Mette, van Noordwijk, Meine, Vatn, Arild, and Contreras, Victoria
Published: 2022

29. Archetype models upscale understanding of natural pest control response to land-use change

Author: Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Marion, Glenn, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Ekroos, Johan, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Meyer, Carsten, O'Rourke, Megan E., Pontarp, Mikael, Poveda, Katja, Seppelt, Ralf, Smith, Henrik G., Walters, Richard J., Clough, Yann, Martin, Emily A., Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Marion, Glenn, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Ekroos, Johan, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Meyer, Carsten, O'Rourke, Megan E., Pontarp, Mikael, Poveda, Katja, Seppelt, Ralf, Smith, Henrik G., Walters, Richard J., Clough, Yann, and Martin, Emily A.
Abstract: Control of crop pests by shifting host plant availability and natural enemy activity at landscape scales has great potential to enhance the sustainability of agriculture. However, mainstreaming natural pest control requires improved understanding of how its benefits can be realized across a variety of agroecological contexts. Empirical studies suggest significant but highly variable responses of natural pest control to land-use change. Current ecological models are either too specific to provide insight across agroecosystems or too generic to guide management with actionable predictions. We suggest obtaining the full benefit of available empirical, theoretical, and methodological knowledge by combining trait-mediated understanding from correlative studies with the explicit representation of causal relationships achieved by mechanistic modeling. To link these frameworks, we adapt the concept of archetypes, or context-specific generalizations, from sustainability science. Similar responses of natural pest control to land-use gradients across cases that share key attributes, such as functional traits of focal organisms, indicate general processes that drive system behavior in a context-sensitive manner. Based on such observations of natural pest control, a systematic definition of archetypes can provide the basis for mechanistic models of intermediate generality that cover all major agroecosystems worldwide. Example applications demonstrate the potential for upscaling understanding and improving predictions of natural pest control, based on knowledge transfer and scientific synthesis. A broader application of this mechanistic archetype approach promises to enhance ecology's contribution to natural resource management across diverse regions and social-ecological contexts.
Published: 2022

30. Conservation needs to integrate knowledge across scales

Author: Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Brauman, Kate A., Cavender-Bares, Jeannine, Díaz, Sandra, Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira, Enquist, Brian J., Garibaldi, Lucas A., Geldmann, Jonas, Halpern, Benjamin S., Hertel, Thomas W., Khoury, Colin K., Krieger, Joana Madeira, Lavorel, Sandra, Mueller, Thomas, Neugarten, Rachel A., Pinto-Ledezma, Jesús, Polasky, Stephen, Purvis, Andy, Reyes-García, Victoria, Roehrdanz, Patrick R., Shannon, Lynne J., Shaw, M. Rebecca, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., Tylianakis, Jason M., Verburg, Peter H., Visconti, Piero, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Brauman, Kate A., Cavender-Bares, Jeannine, Díaz, Sandra, Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira, Enquist, Brian J., Garibaldi, Lucas A., Geldmann, Jonas, Halpern, Benjamin S., Hertel, Thomas W., Khoury, Colin K., Krieger, Joana Madeira, Lavorel, Sandra, Mueller, Thomas, Neugarten, Rachel A., Pinto-Ledezma, Jesús, Polasky, Stephen, Purvis, Andy, Reyes-García, Victoria, Roehrdanz, Patrick R., Shannon, Lynne J., Shaw, M. Rebecca, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., Tylianakis, Jason M., Verburg, Peter H., Visconti, Piero, and Zafra-Calvo, Noelia
Published: 2022

31. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique
Abstract: The expert group on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services initiated the development of the Nature Futures Framework for developing scenarios of positive futures for nature, to help inform assessments of policy options. This new scenarios and modelling Framework seeks to open up diversity and plurality of perspectives by differentiating three main value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature (intrinsic values of nature), Nature for Society (instrumental values) and Nature as Culture (relational values). This paper describes how the Nature Futures Framework can be applied in modelling to support policy processes by identifying key interventions for change in realizing a diversity of desirable futures. First, the paper introduces and elaborates on key building blocks of the framework for developing qualitative scenarios and translating them into quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the Nature Futures frontier representing diverse preferences, ii) incorporating mutual and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems in Nature Futures scenarios, and iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems with complementary knowledge and data. This paper then presents three possible application approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios to support the i) review, ii) implementation and iii) design phases of policy processes. The main objective of this paper is to facilitate the integration of the relational values of nature in models, through improved indicators and other forms of evidence, and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life to identify science- and knowledge-based interventions and to enhance ecological understanding for achieving sustainable futures. The paper aims at stimulating the development of new scenarios and models based on this new framework by a wide c
Published: 2021

32. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique
Published: 2021

33. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author: Kim, Hyejin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-kramer, Rebecca, Belder, Eefje Den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Kim, Hyejin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-kramer, Rebecca, Belder, Eefje Den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique
Abstract: The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people and quality of life.
Published: 2021
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34. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique
Published: 2021

35. Landscape simplification increases vineyard pest outbreaks and insecticide use.

Author: Paredes, Daniel, Mori, Akira1, Paredes, Daniel, Rosenheim, Jay A, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Winter, Silvia, Karp, Daniel S, Paredes, Daniel, Mori, Akira1, Paredes, Daniel, Rosenheim, Jay A, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Winter, Silvia, and Karp, Daniel S
Abstract: Diversifying agricultural landscapes may mitigate biodiversity declines and improve pest management. Yet landscapes are rarely managed to suppress pests, in part because researchers seldom measure key variables related to pest outbreaks and insecticides that drive management decisions. We used a 13-year government database to analyse landscape effects on European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) outbreaks and insecticides across c. 400 Spanish vineyards. At harvest, we found pest outbreaks increased four-fold in simplified, vineyard-dominated landscapes compared to complex landscapes in which vineyards are surrounded by semi-natural habitats. Similarly, insecticide applications doubled in vineyard-dominated landscapes but declined in vineyards surrounded by shrubland. Importantly, pest population stochasticity would have masked these large effects if numbers of study sites and years were reduced to typical levels in landscape pest-control studies. Our results suggest increasing landscape complexity may mitigate pest populations and insecticide applications. Habitat conservation represents an economically and environmentally sound approach for achieving sustainable grape production.
Published: 2021

36. Models of natural pest control: Towards predictions across agricultural landscapes

Author: Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Marion, Glenn, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Ekroos, Johan, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Meyer, Carsten, O'Rourke, Megan E., Pontarp, Mikael, Poveda, Katja, Seppelt, Ralf, Smith, Henrik G., Martin, Emily A., Clough, Yann, Alexandridis, Nikolaos, Marion, Glenn, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Ekroos, Johan, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Meyer, Carsten, O'Rourke, Megan E., Pontarp, Mikael, Poveda, Katja, Seppelt, Ralf, Smith, Henrik G., Martin, Emily A., and Clough, Yann
Abstract: Natural control of invertebrate crop pests has the potential to complement or replace conventional insecticide-based practices, but its mainstream application is hampered by predictive unreliability across agroecosystems. Inconsistent responses of natural pest control to changes in landscape characteristics have been attributed to ecological complexity and system-specific conditions. Here, we review agroecological models and their potential to provide predictions of natural pest control across agricultural landscapes. Existing models have used a multitude of techniques to represent specific crop-pest-enemy systems at various spatiotemporal scales, but less wealthy regions of the world are underrepresented. A realistic representation of natural pest control across systems appears to be hindered by a practical trade-off between generality and realism. Nonetheless, observations of context-sensitive, trait-mediated responses of natural pest control to land-use gradients indicate the potential of ecological models that explicitly represent the underlying mechanisms. We conclude that modelling natural pest control across agroecosystems should exploit existing mechanistic techniques towards a framework of contextually bound generalizations. Observed similarities in causal relationships can inform the functional grouping of diverse agroecosystems worldwide and the development of the respective models based on general, but context-sensitive, ecological mechanisms. The combined use of qualitative and quantitative techniques should allow the flexible integration of empirical evidence and ecological theory for robust predictions of natural pest control across a wide range of agroecological contexts and levels of knowledge availability. We highlight challenges and promising directions towards developing such a general modelling framework.
Published: 2021

37. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author: Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique
Published: 2021

38. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author: Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, Pereira, Henrique M., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Abstract: Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics. The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models. Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas.
Published: 2020

39. Closing yield gap is crucial to avoid potential surge in global carbon emissions

Author: Suh, Sangwon, Suh, Sangwon, Johnson, Justin A, Tambjerg, Lau, Sim, Sarah, Broeckx-Smith, Summer, Reyes, Whitney, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Suh, Sangwon, Suh, Sangwon, Johnson, Justin A, Tambjerg, Lau, Sim, Sarah, Broeckx-Smith, Summer, Reyes, Whitney, and Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
Published: 2020

40. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author: Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, Pereira, Henrique M., Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Published: 2020

41. Closing yield gap is crucial to avoid potential surge in global carbon emissions

Author: Suh, Sangwon, Suh, Sangwon, Johnson, Justin A, Tambjerg, Lau, Sim, Sarah, Broeckx-Smith, Summer, Reyes, Whitney, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Suh, Sangwon, Suh, Sangwon, Johnson, Justin A, Tambjerg, Lau, Sim, Sarah, Broeckx-Smith, Summer, Reyes, Whitney, and Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
Published: 2020

42. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author: Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, Pereira, Henrique M., Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Published: 2020

43. Species traits elucidate crop pest response to landscape composition: a global analysis.

Author: Tamburini, Giovanni, Tamburini, Giovanni, Santoiemma, Giacomo, E O'Rourke, Megan, Bommarco, Riccardo, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Karp, Daniel S, Kim, Tania N, Martin, Emily A, Petersen, Matt, Marini, Lorenzo, Tamburini, Giovanni, Tamburini, Giovanni, Santoiemma, Giacomo, E O'Rourke, Megan, Bommarco, Riccardo, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Karp, Daniel S, Kim, Tania N, Martin, Emily A, Petersen, Matt, and Marini, Lorenzo
Abstract: Recent synthesis studies have shown inconsistent responses of crop pests to landscape composition, imposing a fundamental limit to our capacity to design sustainable crop protection strategies to reduce yield losses caused by insect pests. Using a global dataset composed of 5242 observations encompassing 48 agricultural pest species and 26 crop species, we tested the role of pest traits (exotic status, host breadth and habitat breadth) and environmental context (crop type, range in landscape gradient and climate) in modifying the pest response to increasing semi-natural habitats in the surrounding landscape. For natives, increasing semi-natural habitats decreased the abundance of pests that exploit only crop habitats or that are highly polyphagous. On the contrary, populations of exotic pests increased with an increasing cover of semi-natural habitats. These effects might be related to changes in host plants and other resources across the landscapes and/or to modified top-down control by natural enemies. The range of the landscape gradient explored and climate did not affect pests, while crop type modified the response of pests to landscape composition. Although species traits and environmental context helped in explaining some of the variability in pest response to landscape composition, the observed large interspecific differences suggest that a portfolio of strategies must be considered and implemented for the effective control of rapidly changing communities of crop pests in agroecosystems.
Published: 2020

44. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Author: Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, Pereira, Henrique M., Environmental Sciences, Rosa, Isabel M.D., Purvis, Andy, Alkemade, Rob, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Ferrier, Simon, Guerra, Carlos A., Hurtt, George, Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Martins, Inês S., Popp, Alexander, Schipper, Aafke M., van Vuuren, Detlef, and Pereira, Henrique M.
Published: 2020

45. Global synthesis of effects of plant species diversity on trophic groups and interactions

Author: Wan, Nian-Feng, Zheng, Xiang-Rong, Fu, Li-Wan, Kiær, Lars Pødenphant, Zhang, Zhijie, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Tan, Jiaqi, Qiu, Shi-Yun, Hu, Yue-Qing, Tian, Wei-Dong, Nie, Ming, Ju, Rui-Ting, Deng, Jian-Yu, Jiang, Jie-Xian, Cai, You-Ming, Li, Bo, Wan, Nian-Feng, Zheng, Xiang-Rong, Fu, Li-Wan, Kiær, Lars Pødenphant, Zhang, Zhijie, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Tan, Jiaqi, Qiu, Shi-Yun, Hu, Yue-Qing, Tian, Wei-Dong, Nie, Ming, Ju, Rui-Ting, Deng, Jian-Yu, Jiang, Jie-Xian, Cai, You-Ming, and Li, Bo
Abstract: Numerous studies have demonstrated that plant species diversity enhances ecosystem functioning in terrestrial ecosystems, including diversity effects on insects (herbivores, predators and parasitoids) and plants. However, the effects of increased plant diversity across trophic levels in different ecosystems and biomes have not yet been explored on a global scale. Through a global meta-analysis of 2,914 observations from 351 studies, we found that increased plant species richness reduced herbivore abundance and damage but increased predator and parasitoid abundance, predation, parasitism and overall plant performance. Moreover, increased predator/parasitoid performance was correlated with reduced herbivore abundance and enhanced plant performance. We conclude that increasing plant species diversity promotes beneficial trophic interactions between insects and plants, ultimately contributing to increased ecosystem services.
Published: 2020

46. Global synthesis of effects of plant species diversity on trophic groups and interactions

Author: Wan, Nian-Feng, Zheng, Xiang-Rong, Fu, Li-Wan, Kiær, Lars Pødenphant, Zhang, Zhijie, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Tan, Jiaqi, Qiu, Shi-Yun, Hu, Yue-Qing, Tian, Wei-Dong, Nie, Ming, Ju, Rui-Ting, Deng, Jian-Yu, Jiang, Jie-Xian, Cai, You-Ming, Li, Bo, Wan, Nian-Feng, Zheng, Xiang-Rong, Fu, Li-Wan, Kiær, Lars Pødenphant, Zhang, Zhijie, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Dainese, Matteo, Tan, Jiaqi, Qiu, Shi-Yun, Hu, Yue-Qing, Tian, Wei-Dong, Nie, Ming, Ju, Rui-Ting, Deng, Jian-Yu, Jiang, Jie-Xian, Cai, You-Ming, and Li, Bo
Abstract: Numerous studies have demonstrated that plant species diversity enhances ecosystem functioning in terrestrial ecosystems, including diversity effects on insects (herbivores, predators and parasitoids) and plants. However, the effects of increased plant diversity across trophic levels in different ecosystems and biomes have not yet been explored on a global scale. Through a global meta-analysis of 2,914 observations from 351 studies, we found that increased plant species richness reduced herbivore abundance and damage but increased predator and parasitoid abundance, predation, parasitism and overall plant performance. Moreover, increased predator/parasitoid performance was correlated with reduced herbivore abundance and enhanced plant performance. We conclude that increasing plant species diversity promotes beneficial trophic interactions between insects and plants, ultimately contributing to increased ecosystem services.
Published: 2020

47. A global synthesis reveals biodiversity-mediated benefits for crop production.

Author: Dainese, Matteo, Dainese, Matteo, Martin, Emily A, Aizen, Marcelo A, Albrecht, Matthias, Bartomeus, Ignasi, Bommarco, Riccardo, Carvalheiro, Luisa G, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Gagic, Vesna, Garibaldi, Lucas A, Ghazoul, Jaboury, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S, Kennedy, Christina M, Kleijn, David, Kremen, Claire, Landis, Douglas A, Letourneau, Deborah K, Marini, Lorenzo, Poveda, Katja, Rader, Romina, Smith, Henrik G, Tscharntke, Teja, Andersson, Georg KS, Badenhausser, Isabelle, Baensch, Svenja, Bezerra, Antonio Diego M, Bianchi, Felix JJA, Boreux, Virginie, Bretagnolle, Vincent, Caballero-Lopez, Berta, Cavigliasso, Pablo, Ćetković, Aleksandar, Chacoff, Natacha P, Classen, Alice, Cusser, Sarah, da Silva E Silva, Felipe D, de Groot, G Arjen, Dudenhöffer, Jan H, Ekroos, Johan, Fijen, Thijs, Franck, Pierre, Freitas, Breno M, Garratt, Michael PD, Gratton, Claudio, Hipólito, Juliana, Holzschuh, Andrea, Hunt, Lauren, Iverson, Aaron L, Jha, Shalene, Keasar, Tamar, Kim, Tania N, Kishinevsky, Miriam, Klatt, Björn K, Klein, Alexandra-Maria, Krewenka, Kristin M, Krishnan, Smitha, Larsen, Ashley E, Lavigne, Claire, Liere, Heidi, Maas, Bea, Mallinger, Rachel E, Martinez Pachon, Eliana, Martínez-Salinas, Alejandra, Meehan, Timothy D, Mitchell, Matthew GE, Molina, Gonzalo AR, Nesper, Maike, Nilsson, Lovisa, O'Rourke, Megan E, Peters, Marcell K, Plećaš, Milan, Potts, Simon G, Ramos, Davi de L, Rosenheim, Jay A, Rundlöf, Maj, Rusch, Adrien, Sáez, Agustín, Scheper, Jeroen, Schleuning, Matthias, Schmack, Julia M, Sciligo, Amber R, Seymour, Colleen, Stanley, Dara A, Stewart, Rebecca, Stout, Jane C, Sutter, Louis, Takada, Mayura B, Taki, Hisatomo, Tamburini, Giovanni, Tschumi, Matthias, Viana, Blandina F, Westphal, Catrin, Willcox, Bryony K, Wratten, Stephen D, Yoshioka, Akira, Zaragoza-Trello, Carlos, Zhang, Wei, Zou, Yi, Dainese, Matteo, Dainese, Matteo, Martin, Emily A, Aizen, Marcelo A, Albrecht, Matthias, Bartomeus, Ignasi, Bommarco, Riccardo, Carvalheiro, Luisa G, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Gagic, Vesna, Garibaldi, Lucas A, Ghazoul, Jaboury, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S, Kennedy, Christina M, Kleijn, David, Kremen, Claire, Landis, Douglas A, Letourneau, Deborah K, Marini, Lorenzo, Poveda, Katja, Rader, Romina, Smith, Henrik G, Tscharntke, Teja, Andersson, Georg KS, Badenhausser, Isabelle, Baensch, Svenja, Bezerra, Antonio Diego M, Bianchi, Felix JJA, Boreux, Virginie, Bretagnolle, Vincent, Caballero-Lopez, Berta, Cavigliasso, Pablo, Ćetković, Aleksandar, Chacoff, Natacha P, Classen, Alice, Cusser, Sarah, da Silva E Silva, Felipe D, de Groot, G Arjen, Dudenhöffer, Jan H, Ekroos, Johan, Fijen, Thijs, Franck, Pierre, Freitas, Breno M, Garratt, Michael PD, Gratton, Claudio, Hipólito, Juliana, Holzschuh, Andrea, Hunt, Lauren, Iverson, Aaron L, Jha, Shalene, Keasar, Tamar, Kim, Tania N, Kishinevsky, Miriam, Klatt, Björn K, Klein, Alexandra-Maria, Krewenka, Kristin M, Krishnan, Smitha, Larsen, Ashley E, Lavigne, Claire, Liere, Heidi, Maas, Bea, Mallinger, Rachel E, Martinez Pachon, Eliana, Martínez-Salinas, Alejandra, Meehan, Timothy D, Mitchell, Matthew GE, Molina, Gonzalo AR, Nesper, Maike, Nilsson, Lovisa, O'Rourke, Megan E, Peters, Marcell K, Plećaš, Milan, Potts, Simon G, Ramos, Davi de L, Rosenheim, Jay A, Rundlöf, Maj, Rusch, Adrien, Sáez, Agustín, Scheper, Jeroen, Schleuning, Matthias, Schmack, Julia M, Sciligo, Amber R, Seymour, Colleen, Stanley, Dara A, Stewart, Rebecca, Stout, Jane C, Sutter, Louis, Takada, Mayura B, Taki, Hisatomo, Tamburini, Giovanni, Tschumi, Matthias, Viana, Blandina F, Westphal, Catrin, Willcox, Bryony K, Wratten, Stephen D, Yoshioka, Akira, Zaragoza-Trello, Carlos, Zhang, Wei, and Zou, Yi
Abstract: Human land use threatens global biodiversity and compromises multiple ecosystem functions critical to food production. Whether crop yield-related ecosystem services can be maintained by a few dominant species or rely on high richness remains unclear. Using a global database from 89 studies (with 1475 locations), we partition the relative importance of species richness, abundance, and dominance for pollination; biological pest control; and final yields in the context of ongoing land-use change. Pollinator and enemy richness directly supported ecosystem services in addition to and independent of abundance and dominance. Up to 50% of the negative effects of landscape simplification on ecosystem services was due to richness losses of service-providing organisms, with negative consequences for crop yields. Maintaining the biodiversity of ecosystem service providers is therefore vital to sustain the flow of key agroecosystem benefits to society.
Published: 2019

48. A global synthesis reveals biodiversity-mediated benefits for crop production

Author: Dainese, Matteo, Martin, Emily A., Aizen, Marcelo A., Albrecht, Matthias, Bartomeus, Ignasi, Bommarco, Riccardo, Carvalheiro, Luisa G., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Gagic, Vesna, Garibaldi, Lucas A., Ghazoul, Jaboury, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Kennedy, Christina M., Kleijn, David, Kremen, Claire, Landis, Douglas A., Letourneau, Deborah K., Marini, Lorenzo, Poveda, Katja, Rader, Romina, Smith, Henrik G., Tscharntke, Teja, Andersson, Georg K. S., Badenhausser, Isabelle, Baensch, Svenja, Bezerra, Antonio Diego M., Bianchi, Felix J. J. A., Boreux, Virginie, Bretagnolle, Vincent, Caballero-Lopez, Berta, Cavigliasso, Pablo, Cetkovic, Aleksandar, Chacoff, Natacha P., Classen, Alice, Cusser, Sarah, da Silva e Silva, Felipe D., de Groot, G. Arjen, Dudenhoeffer, Jan H., Ekroos, Johan, Fijen, Thijs, Franck, Pierre, Freitas, Breno M., Garratt, Michael P. D., Gratton, Claudio, Hipolito, Juliana, Holzschuh, Andrea, Hunt, Lauren, Iverson, Aaron L., Jha, Shalene, Keasar, Tamar, Kim, Tania N., Kishinevsky, Miriam, Klatt, Bjorn K., Klein, Alexandra-Maria, Krewenka, Kristin M., Krishnan, Smitha, Larsen, Ashley E., Lavigne, Claire, Liere, Heidi, Maas, Bea, Mallinger, Rachel E., Martinez Pachon, Eliana, Martinez-Salinas, Alejandra, Meehan, Timothy D., Mitchell, Matthew G. E., Molina, Gonzalo A. R., Nesper, Maike, Nilsson, Lovisa, O'Rourke, Megan E., Peters, Marcell K., Plecas, Milan, Potts, Simon G., Ramos, Davi de L., Rosenheim, Jay A., Rundlof, Maj, Rusch, Adrien, Saez, Agustin, Scheper, Jeroen, Schleuning, Matthias, Schmack, Julia M., Sciligo, Amber R., Seymour, Colleen, Stanley, Dara A., Stewart, Rebecca M., Stout, Jane C., Sutter, Louis, Takada, Mayura B., Taki, Hisatomo, Tamburini, Giovanni, Tschumi, Matthias, Viana, Blandina F., Westphal, Catrin, Willcox, Bryony K., Wratten, Stephen D., Yoshioka, Akira, Zaragoza-Trello, Carlos, Zhang, Wei, Zou, Yi, Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf, Dainese, Matteo, Martin, Emily A., Aizen, Marcelo A., Albrecht, Matthias, Bartomeus, Ignasi, Bommarco, Riccardo, Carvalheiro, Luisa G., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Gagic, Vesna, Garibaldi, Lucas A., Ghazoul, Jaboury, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Kennedy, Christina M., Kleijn, David, Kremen, Claire, Landis, Douglas A., Letourneau, Deborah K., Marini, Lorenzo, Poveda, Katja, Rader, Romina, Smith, Henrik G., Tscharntke, Teja, Andersson, Georg K. S., Badenhausser, Isabelle, Baensch, Svenja, Bezerra, Antonio Diego M., Bianchi, Felix J. J. A., Boreux, Virginie, Bretagnolle, Vincent, Caballero-Lopez, Berta, Cavigliasso, Pablo, Cetkovic, Aleksandar, Chacoff, Natacha P., Classen, Alice, Cusser, Sarah, da Silva e Silva, Felipe D., de Groot, G. Arjen, Dudenhoeffer, Jan H., Ekroos, Johan, Fijen, Thijs, Franck, Pierre, Freitas, Breno M., Garratt, Michael P. D., Gratton, Claudio, Hipolito, Juliana, Holzschuh, Andrea, Hunt, Lauren, Iverson, Aaron L., Jha, Shalene, Keasar, Tamar, Kim, Tania N., Kishinevsky, Miriam, Klatt, Bjorn K., Klein, Alexandra-Maria, Krewenka, Kristin M., Krishnan, Smitha, Larsen, Ashley E., Lavigne, Claire, Liere, Heidi, Maas, Bea, Mallinger, Rachel E., Martinez Pachon, Eliana, Martinez-Salinas, Alejandra, Meehan, Timothy D., Mitchell, Matthew G. E., Molina, Gonzalo A. R., Nesper, Maike, Nilsson, Lovisa, O'Rourke, Megan E., Peters, Marcell K., Plecas, Milan, Potts, Simon G., Ramos, Davi de L., Rosenheim, Jay A., Rundlof, Maj, Rusch, Adrien, Saez, Agustin, Scheper, Jeroen, Schleuning, Matthias, Schmack, Julia M., Sciligo, Amber R., Seymour, Colleen, Stanley, Dara A., Stewart, Rebecca M., Stout, Jane C., Sutter, Louis, Takada, Mayura B., Taki, Hisatomo, Tamburini, Giovanni, Tschumi, Matthias, Viana, Blandina F., Westphal, Catrin, Willcox, Bryony K., Wratten, Stephen D., Yoshioka, Akira, Zaragoza-Trello, Carlos, Zhang, Wei, Zou, Yi, and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf
Abstract: Human land use threatens global biodiversity and compromises multiple ecosystem functions critical to food production. Whether crop yield-related ecosystem services can be maintained by a few dominant species or rely on high richness remains unclear. Using a global database from 89 studies (with 1475 locations), we partition the relative importance of species richness, abundance, and dominance for pollination; biological pest control; and final yields in the context of ongoing land-use change. Pollinator and enemy richness directly supported ecosystem services in addition to and independent of abundance and dominance. Up to 50% of the negative effects of landscape simplification on ecosystem services was due to richness losses of service-providing organisms, with negative consequences for crop yields. Maintaining the biodiversity of ecosystem service providers is therefore vital to sustain the flow of key agroecosystem benefits to society.
Published: 2019
Full Text: View/download PDF

49. A global synthesis reveals biodiversity-mediated benefits for crop production

Author: Dainese, Matteo, Martin, Emily A., Aizen, Marcelo A., Albrecht, Matthias, Bartomeus, Ignasi, Bommarco, Riccardo, Carvalheiro, Luisa G., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Gagic, Vesna, Garibaldi, Lucas A., Ghazoul, Jaboury, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Kennedy, Christina M., Kleijn, David, Kremen, Claire, Landis, Douglas A., Letourneau, Deborah K., Marini, Lorenzo, Poveda, Katja, Rader, Romina, Smith, Henrik G., Tscharntke, Teja, Andersson, Georg K. S., Badenhausser, Isabelle, Baensch, Svenja, Bezerra, Antonio Diego M., Bianchi, Felix J. J. A., Boreux, Virginie, Bretagnolle, Vincent, Caballero-Lopez, Berta, Cavigliasso, Pablo, Cetkovic, Aleksandar, Chacoff, Natacha P., Classen, Alice, Cusser, Sarah, da Silva e Silva, Felipe D., de Groot, G. Arjen, Dudenhoeffer, Jan H., Ekroos, Johan, Fijen, Thijs, Franck, Pierre, Freitas, Breno M., Garratt, Michael P. D., Gratton, Claudio, Hipolito, Juliana, Holzschuh, Andrea, Hunt, Lauren, Iverson, Aaron L., Jha, Shalene, Keasar, Tamar, Kim, Tania N., Kishinevsky, Miriam, Klatt, Bjorn K., Klein, Alexandra-Maria, Krewenka, Kristin M., Krishnan, Smitha, Larsen, Ashley E., Lavigne, Claire, Liere, Heidi, Maas, Bea, Mallinger, Rachel E., Martinez Pachon, Eliana, Martinez-Salinas, Alejandra, Meehan, Timothy D., Mitchell, Matthew G. E., Molina, Gonzalo A. R., Nesper, Maike, Nilsson, Lovisa, O'Rourke, Megan E., Peters, Marcell K., Plecas, Milan, Potts, Simon G., Ramos, Davi de L., Rosenheim, Jay A., Rundlof, Maj, Rusch, Adrien, Saez, Agustin, Scheper, Jeroen, Schleuning, Matthias, Schmack, Julia M., Sciligo, Amber R., Seymour, Colleen, Stanley, Dara A., Stewart, Rebecca M., Stout, Jane C., Sutter, Louis, Takada, Mayura B., Taki, Hisatomo, Tamburini, Giovanni, Tschumi, Matthias, Viana, Blandina F., Westphal, Catrin, Willcox, Bryony K., Wratten, Stephen D., Yoshioka, Akira, Zaragoza-Trello, Carlos, Zhang, Wei, Zou, Yi, Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf, Dainese, Matteo, Martin, Emily A., Aizen, Marcelo A., Albrecht, Matthias, Bartomeus, Ignasi, Bommarco, Riccardo, Carvalheiro, Luisa G., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Gagic, Vesna, Garibaldi, Lucas A., Ghazoul, Jaboury, Grab, Heather, Jonsson, Mattias, Karp, Daniel S., Kennedy, Christina M., Kleijn, David, Kremen, Claire, Landis, Douglas A., Letourneau, Deborah K., Marini, Lorenzo, Poveda, Katja, Rader, Romina, Smith, Henrik G., Tscharntke, Teja, Andersson, Georg K. S., Badenhausser, Isabelle, Baensch, Svenja, Bezerra, Antonio Diego M., Bianchi, Felix J. J. A., Boreux, Virginie, Bretagnolle, Vincent, Caballero-Lopez, Berta, Cavigliasso, Pablo, Cetkovic, Aleksandar, Chacoff, Natacha P., Classen, Alice, Cusser, Sarah, da Silva e Silva, Felipe D., de Groot, G. Arjen, Dudenhoeffer, Jan H., Ekroos, Johan, Fijen, Thijs, Franck, Pierre, Freitas, Breno M., Garratt, Michael P. D., Gratton, Claudio, Hipolito, Juliana, Holzschuh, Andrea, Hunt, Lauren, Iverson, Aaron L., Jha, Shalene, Keasar, Tamar, Kim, Tania N., Kishinevsky, Miriam, Klatt, Bjorn K., Klein, Alexandra-Maria, Krewenka, Kristin M., Krishnan, Smitha, Larsen, Ashley E., Lavigne, Claire, Liere, Heidi, Maas, Bea, Mallinger, Rachel E., Martinez Pachon, Eliana, Martinez-Salinas, Alejandra, Meehan, Timothy D., Mitchell, Matthew G. E., Molina, Gonzalo A. R., Nesper, Maike, Nilsson, Lovisa, O'Rourke, Megan E., Peters, Marcell K., Plecas, Milan, Potts, Simon G., Ramos, Davi de L., Rosenheim, Jay A., Rundlof, Maj, Rusch, Adrien, Saez, Agustin, Scheper, Jeroen, Schleuning, Matthias, Schmack, Julia M., Sciligo, Amber R., Seymour, Colleen, Stanley, Dara A., Stewart, Rebecca M., Stout, Jane C., Sutter, Louis, Takada, Mayura B., Taki, Hisatomo, Tamburini, Giovanni, Tschumi, Matthias, Viana, Blandina F., Westphal, Catrin, Willcox, Bryony K., Wratten, Stephen D., Yoshioka, Akira, Zaragoza-Trello, Carlos, Zhang, Wei, Zou, Yi, and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf
Abstract: Human land use threatens global biodiversity and compromises multiple ecosystem functions critical to food production. Whether crop yield-related ecosystem services can be maintained by a few dominant species or rely on high richness remains unclear. Using a global database from 89 studies (with 1475 locations), we partition the relative importance of species richness, abundance, and dominance for pollination; biological pest control; and final yields in the context of ongoing land-use change. Pollinator and enemy richness directly supported ecosystem services in addition to and independent of abundance and dominance. Up to 50% of the negative effects of landscape simplification on ecosystem services was due to richness losses of service-providing organisms, with negative consequences for crop yields. Maintaining the biodiversity of ecosystem service providers is therefore vital to sustain the flow of key agroecosystem benefits to society.
Published: 2019
Full Text: View/download PDF

50. Where should livestock graze? Integrated modeling and optimization to guide grazing management in the Cañete basin, Peru

Author: Hamel, Perrine, Blundo Canto, Genowefa, Kowal, Virginia, Bryant, Benjamin P., Hawthorne, Peter L., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Hamel, Perrine, Blundo Canto, Genowefa, Kowal, Virginia, Bryant, Benjamin P., Hawthorne, Peter L., and Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca
Abstract: Integrated watershed management allows decision-makers to balance competing objectives, for example agricultural production and protection of water resources. Here, we developed a spatially-explicit approach to support such management in the Cañete watershed, Peru. We modeled the effect of grazing management on three services – livestock production, erosion control, and baseflow provision – and used an optimization routine to simulate landscapes providing the highest level of services. Over the entire watershed, there was a trade-off between livestock productivity and hydrologic services and we identified locations that minimized this trade-off for a given set of preferences. Given the knowledge gaps in ecohydrology and practical constraints not represented in the optimizer, we assessed the robustness of spatial recommendations, i.e. revealing areas most often selected by the optimizer. We conclude with a discussion of the practical decisions involved in using optimization frameworks to inform watershed management programs, and the research needs to better inform the design of such programs.
Published: 2019

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