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Greater tumor aggressiveness and different management modalities of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT) may explain the higher recurrence rates reported in Asia. This study investigates the prognostic factors for HCC recurrence in a Western and an Eastern HCC patient cohort in order to analyze the respective roles of tumor- and management-related factors on the incidence of post-LT HCC recurrence.

In the last several years, there has been no agreement on how to possibly expand the Milan criteria (MC) in the selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for listing for liver transplant (LT). The aim of the study is to evaluate morphological and biological tumor parameters to identify new expanded criteria for the selection of patients with HCC as candidates for LT.

Background & Aims: Greater tumor aggressiveness and different management modalities of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT) may explain the higher recurrence rates reported in Asia. This study investigates the prognostic factors for HCC recurrence in a Western and an Eastern HCC patient cohort in order to analyze the respective roles of tumor- and manage- ment-related factors on the incidence of post-LT HCC recurrence. Methods: Data of 273 HCC patients, transplanted during the per- iod January 1999–March 2009, were obtained from the Rome Inter-University Liver Transplant Consortium (n = 157) and Hong Kong University (n = 116) databases. Median follow-up was 4.3 years (range: 0.2–12). Recurrence rate and multivariate logis- tic regression analysis was performed on the entire population and on Milan criteria-in (MC-in) patients. Results: Multivariate analysis on the entire population identified four independent risk factors for post-LT HCC recurrence: micro- vascular invasion (odds ratio, OR = 4.88; p = 0.001), poor tumor grading (OR = 6.86; p = 0.002), diameter of the largest tumor (OR = 4.72; p = 0.05), and previous liver resection (LR) (OR = 3.34; p = 0.04). After removal of LR, only tumor-related variables were independent risk factors for recurrence. When only MC-in patients were analyzed, no difference was observed between the two cohorts in terms of recurrence rate after LR patient removal.

Background: Milan criteria (MC) represent the most commonly adopted criteria for the selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT). However, MC are exclusively based on morphological aspects. The aim of the present study was to evaluate pre-LT–detectable biological param- eters, to compare them with morphological ones in terms of tumor recurrence prediction and patient survival. Methods: A cohort of 153 consecutive adult patients who underwent LT for HCC on cirrhosis from January 1999 to March 2009 was retrospectively analyzed. Results: HCC recurrence was observed in 12 patients (7.8%). At multivariate logistic regression analysis, serum alpha- fetoprotein (AFP) was the unique independent negative risk factor for the development of HCC recurrence (odds ratio 2.0, p=0.03). Adopting a cutoff value of 210 ng/mL, patients who presented serum AFP ≥210 ng/mL showed a 5-year survival rate of 23.3% versus 76.2% observed in patients with pre-LT serum AFP <210 ng/mL (log-rank test: <0.0001). Conclusions: In our experience, AFP was the strongest predictor of HCC recurrence, stronger than tumor morphology. AFP could ameliorate the selection of LT candidates. Further studies to evaluate the combination of morphological and biological criteria are needed.

Background: Milan criteria (MC) represent the most commonly adopted criteria for the selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT). However, MC are exclusively based on morphological aspects. The aim of the present study was to evaluate pre-LT-detectable biological parameters, to compare them with morphological ones in terms of tumor recurrence prediction and patient survival. Methods: A cohort of 153 consecutive adult patients who underwent LT for HCC on cirrhosis from January 1999 to March 2009 was retrospectively analyzed. Results: HCC recurrence was observed in 12 patients (7.8%). At multivariate logistic regression analysis, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) was the unique independent negative risk factor for the development of HCC recurrence (odds ratio 2.0, p=0.03). Adopting a cutoff value of 210 ng/mL, patients who presented serum AFP =210 ng/mL showed a 5-year survival rate of 23.3% versus 76.2% observed in patients with pre-LT serum AFP <210 ng/mL (log-rank test: <0.0001). Conclusions: In our experience, AFP was the strongest predictor of HCC recurrence, stronger than tumor morphology. AFP could ameliorate the selection of LT candidates. Further studies to evaluate the combination of morphological and biological criteria are needed.