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Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.

Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.

Crystallization of alkaline earth metal carbonates from water is important for biomineralization and environmental geochemistry. Here, large-scale computer simulations are a useful approach to complement experimental studies by providing atomistic insights and even by quantitatively determining the thermodynamics of individual steps. However, this is dependent on the existence of force field models that are sufficiently accurate while being computationally efficient enough to sample complex systems. Here, we introduce a revised force field for aqueous alkaline earth metal carbonates that reproduces both the solubilities of the crystalline anhydrous minerals, as well as the hydration free energies of the ions. The model is also designed to run efficiently on graphical processing units thereby reducing the cost of such simulations. The performance of the revised force field is compared against previous results for important properties relevant to crystallization, including ion-pairing and mineral-water interfacial structure and dynamics. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Supercomputing simulations of advanced materials'.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to high doses of ionizing radiation is among the few well-established brain tumour risk factors. We used data from the Interphone study to evaluate the effects of exposure to low-dose radiation from diagnostic radiological examinations on glioma, meningioma and acoustic neuroma risk. METHODS: Brain tumour cases (2644 gliomas, 2236 meningiomas, 1083 neuromas) diagnosed in 2000-02 were identified through hospitals in 13 countries, and 6068 controls (population-based controls in most centres) were included in the analysis. Participation across all centres was 64% for glioma cases, 78% for meningioma cases, 82% for acoustic neuroma cases and 53% for controls. Information on previous diagnostic radiological examinations was obtained by interviews, including the frequency, timing and indication for the examinations. Typical brain doses per type of examination were estimated based on the literature. Examinations within the 5 years before the index date were excluded from the dose estimation. Adjusted odds ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: No materially or consistently increased odds ratios for glioma, meningioma or acoustic neuroma were found for any specific type of examination, including computed tomography of the head and cerebral angiography. The only indication of an elevated risk was an increasing trend in risk of meningioma with the number of isotope scans, but no such trends for other examinations were observed. No gradient was found in risk with estimated brain dose. Age at exposure did not substantially modify the findings. Sensitivity analyses gave results consistent with the main analysis. CONCLUSIONS: There was no consistent evidence for increased risks of brain tumours with X-ray examinations, although error from selection and recall bias cannot be completely excluded. A cautious interpretation is warranted for the observed association between isotope scans and meningioma.

Amanzi Springs is a series of inactive thermal springs located near Kariega in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. Excavations in the 1960s exposed rare, stratified Acheulian-bearing deposits that were not further investigated over the next 50 years. Reanalysis of the site and its legacy collection has led to a redefined stratigraphic context for the archaeology, a confirmed direct association between Acheulian artefacts and wood, as well as the first reliable age estimates for the site. Thermally transferred optically stimulated luminescence and post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence dating indicates that the Acheulian deposits from the Amanzi Springs Area 1 spring eye formed during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 at ~ 404-390 ka. At this time, higher sea levels of ~13-14m would have placed Amanzi Springs around 7 km from a ria that would have formed along what is today the Swartkops River, and which likely led to spring reactivation. This makes the Amanzi Springs Area 1 assemblage an unusual occurrence of a verified late occurring, seaward, open-air Acheulian occupation. The Acheulian levels do not contain any Middle Stone Age (MSA) elements such as blades and points that have been documented in the interior of South Africa at this time. However, a small number of stone tools from the upper layers of the artefact zone, and originally thought of as intrusive, have been dated to ~190 ka, at the transition between MIS 7 to 6, and represent the first potential MSA identified at the site.

Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability: However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° degrees from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1753392 deaths (95% CI 1159 901–2357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, ac

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

The Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to process ${\sim}10^6$ transient detections per night. For precision measurements of cosmological parameters and rates, it is critical to understand the detection efficiency, magnitude limits, artifact contamination levels, and biases in the selection and photometry. Here we rigorously test the LSST Difference Image Analysis (DIA) pipeline using simulated images from the Rubin Observatory LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge (DC2) simulation for the Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) survey area. DC2 is the first large-scale (300 deg$^2$) image simulation of a transient survey that includes realistic cadence, variable observing conditions, and CCD image artifacts. We analyze ${\sim}$15 deg$^2$ of DC2 over a 5-year time-span in which artificial point-sources from Type Ia Supernovae (SNIa) light curves have been overlaid onto the images. We measure the detection efficiency as a function of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and find a $50\%$ efficiency at $\rm{SNR}=5.8$. The magnitude limits for each filter are: $u=23.66$, $g=24.69$, $r=24.06$, $i=23.45$, $z=22.54$, $y=21.62$ $\rm{mag}$. The artifact contamination is $\sim90\%$ of detections, corresponding to $\sim1000$ artifacts/deg$^2$ in $g$ band, and falling to 300 per deg$^2$ in $y$ band. The photometry has biases $<1\%$ for magnitudes $19.5 < m <23$. Our DIA performance on simulated images is similar to that of the Dark Energy Survey pipeline applied to real images. We also characterize DC2 image properties to produce catalog-level simulations needed for distance bias corrections. We find good agreement between DC2 data and simulations for distributions of SNR, redshift, and fitted light-curve properties. Applying a realistic SNIa-cosmology analysis for redshifts $z<1$, we recover the input cosmology parameters to within statistical uncertainties., Comment: Submitting to Astronomy & Astrophysics

Background: Melanoma aetiology has been proposed to have two pathways, which are determined by naevi and type of sun exposure and related to the anatomical site where melanoma develops. Objectives: We examined associations with melanoma by anatomical site for a comprehensive set of risk factors including pigmentary and naevus phenotypes, ultraviolet radiation exposure and polygenic risk. Methods: We analysed harmonized data from 2617 people with incident first invasive melanoma and 975 healthy controls recruited through two population-based case–control studies in Australia and the UK. Questionnaire data were collected by interview using a single protocol, and pathway-specific polygenic risk scores were derived from DNA samples. We estimated adjusted odds ratios using unconditional logistic regression that compared melanoma cases at each anatomical site with all controls. Results: When cases were compared with control participants, there were stronger associations for many naevi vs. no naevi for melanomas on the trunk, and upper and lower limbs than on the head and neck (P-heterogeneity < 0·001). Very fair skin (vs. olive/brown skin) was more weakly related to melanoma on the trunk than to melanomas at other sites (P-heterogeneity = 0·04). There was no significant difference by anatomical site for polygenic risk. Increased weekday sun exposure was positively associated with melanoma on the head and neck but not on other sites. Conclusions: We found evidence of aetiological heterogeneity for melanoma, supporting the dual pathway hypothesis. These findings enhance understanding of risk factors for melanoma and can guide prevention and skin examination education and practices.

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

There is conflicting evidence on the influence of weather on COVID-19 transmission. Our aim is to estimate weather-dependent signatures in the early phase of the pandemic, while controlling for socio-economic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions. We identify a modest non-linear association between mean temperature and the effective reproduction number (Re) in 409 cities in 26 countries, with a decrease of 0.087 (95% CI: 0.025; 0.148) for a 10 °C increase. Early interventions have a greater effect on Re with a decrease of 0.285 (95% CI 0.223; 0.347) for a 5th-95th percentile increase in the government response index. The variation in the effective reproduction number explained by government interventions is 6 times greater than for mean temperature. We find little evidence of meteorological conditions having influenced the early stages of local epidemics and conclude that population behaviour and government interventions are more important drivers of transmission.

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), l

The Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to process ${\sim}10^6$ transient detections per night. For precision measurements of cosmological parameters and rates, it is critical to understand the detection efficiency, magnitude limits, artifact contamination levels, and biases in the selection and photometry. Here we rigorously test the LSST Difference Image Analysis (DIA) pipeline using simulated images from the Rubin Observatory LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge (DC2) simulation for the Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) survey area. DC2 is the first large-scale (300 deg$^2$) image simulation of a transient survey that includes realistic cadence, variable observing conditions, and CCD image artifacts. We analyze ${\sim}$15 deg$^2$ of DC2 over a 5-year time-span in which artificial point-sources from Type Ia Supernovae (SNIa) light curves have been overlaid onto the images. We measure the detection efficiency as a function of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and find a $50\%$ efficiency at $\rm{SNR}=5.8$. The magnitude limits for each filter are: $u=23.66$, $g=24.69$, $r=24.06$, $i=23.45$, $z=22.54$, $y=21.62$ $\rm{mag}$. The artifact contamination is $\sim90\%$ of detections, corresponding to $\sim1000$ artifacts/deg$^2$ in $g$ band, and falling to 300 per deg$^2$ in $y$ band. The photometry has biases $<1\%$ for magnitudes $19.5 < m <23$. Our DIA performance on simulated images is similar to that of the Dark Energy Survey pipeline applied to real images. We also characterize DC2 image properties to produce catalog-level simulations needed for distance bias corrections. We find good agreement between DC2 data and simulations for distributions of SNR, redshift, and fitted light-curve properties. Applying a realistic SNIa-cosmology analysis for redshifts $z<1$, we recover the input cosmology parameters to within statistical uncertainties., Comment: Submitting to Astronomy & Astrophysics

Previously, it was suggested that haemadipsid leeches represent an important vector of trypanosomes amongst native animals in Australia. Consequently, Chtonobdella bilineata leeches were investigated for the presence of trypanosome species by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), DNA sequencing and in vitro isolation. Phylogenetic analysis ensued to further define the populations present. PCR targeting the 28S rDNA demonstrated that over 95% of C. bilineata contained trypanosomes; diversity profiling by deep amplicon sequencing of 18S rDNA indicated the presence of four different clusters related to the Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) theileri. Novy–MacNeal–Nicolle slopes with liquid overlay were used to isolate trypanosomes into culture that proved similar in morphology to Trypanosoma cyclops in that they contained a large numbers of acidocalcisomes. Phylogeny of 18S rDNA/GAPDH/ND5 DNA sequences from primary cultures and subclones showed the trypanosomes were monophyletic, with T. cyclops as a sister group. Blood-meal analysis of leeches showed that leeches primarily contained blood from swamp wallaby (Wallabia bicolour), human (Homo sapiens) or horse (Equus sp.). The leech C. bilineata is a host for at least five lineages of Trypanosoma sp. and these are monophyletic with T. cyclops; we propose Trypanosoma cyclops australiensis as a subspecies of T. cyclops based on genetic similarity and biogeography considerations.

© Copyright © 2020 Armstrong, Bridge, Oakden, Reynolds, Wang, Panzone, Rivera, Kause, Ffoulkes, Krawczyk, Miller and Serjeant. There is a food knowledge disconnect between the food research community, and the general population. Food experts know detailed information about foods, but there is a lack of understanding about what citizens know. Citizen science has been used successfully in various fields however, is virtually absent from food research. This pilot study explores the efficacy of Zooniverse citizen science platform as a method of food citizen research, and assesses the impact of response method, food type, portion size and weight information, on estimates of carbon footprint and energy content. Estimates of the carbon footprint (grams of carbon dioxide equivalent) and energy content (Kcal) of 10 foods were measured in a 3 (Between: Response Method; multiple-choice, slider, text box) × 3 (Within: portion size; small, medium, large) × 2 (Between: weight information; present, absent) observational survey. Citizens (N = ~516, unique IP addresses) were recruited via informal email networks. Kruskal–Wallis and Chi-square analyses compared citizen estimations with validated values, and assessed the impact of the variables on estimations. The majority of carbon footprint and energy content estimates were inaccurate, with citizens typically overestimating values. We observe an unexpected correlation between carbon footprint and energy content estimates. Portion size impacts perceptions, with estimations increasing with larger portion sizes. Weight information impacts perceptions, with estimations of carbon footprint being lower, and estimates of energy content being higher when weight information is present. Input method significantly affects observed values, estimates of carbon footprint and energy content estimates were lowest using the text box, followed by the slider tool, highest estimates were given using multiple choice. Citizens are unable to accurately es

Background: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. Methods: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985–2015) and future (2020–99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. Findings: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by −0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2–7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to incre

The Wittenoom crocidolite (blue asbestos) mine and mill ceased operating in 1966. The impact of this industry on asbestos-related disease in Western Australia has been immense. Use of the employment records of the Australian Blue Asbestos Company and records of the Wittenoom township residents has permitted two cohorts of people with virtually exclusive exposure to crocidolite to be assembled and studied. Follow-up of these two cohorts has been conducted through data linkage with available hospital, mortality and cancer records. The evolution of asbestos-related disease has been recorded and, with the establishment of exposure measurements, quantitative exposure–response relationships have been estimated. There has been an ongoing epidemic of mortality from lung cancer and malignant mesothelioma and, less so, from asbestosis. Wittenoom crocidolite was used extensively in asbestos-cement products in Western Australia. As a result, the state has recorded a higher malignant-mesothelioma mortality rate than in any other Australian state and in any defined general population in the world. Thus, the legacy of Wittenoom has extended beyond the mine and the town, and is still evident more than 50 years after the closure of the mine.

The Wittenoom crocidolite (blue asbestos) mine and mill ceased operating in 1966. The impact of this industry on asbestos-related disease in Western Australia has been immense. Use of the employment records of the Australian Blue Asbestos Company and records of the Wittenoom township residents has permitted two cohorts of people with virtually exclusive exposure to crocidolite to be assembled and studied. Follow-up of these two cohorts has been conducted through data linkage with available hospital, mortality and cancer records. The evolution of asbestos-related disease has been recorded and, with the establishment of exposure measurements, quantitative exposure–response relationships have been estimated. There has been an ongoing epidemic of mortality from lung cancer and malignant mesothelioma and, less so, from asbestosis. Wittenoom crocidolite was used extensively in asbestos-cement products in Western Australia. As a result, the state has recorded a higher malignant-mesothelioma mortality rate than in any other Australian state and in any defined general population in the world. Thus, the legacy of Wittenoom has extended beyond the mine and the town, and is still evident more than 50 years after the closure of the mine.

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Sea anemone venoms have long been recognized as a rich source of peptides with interesting pharmacological and structural properties, but they still contain many uncharacterized bioactive compounds. Here we report the discovery, three-dimensional structure, activity, tissue localization, and putative function of a novel sea anemone peptide toxin that constitutes a new, sixth type of voltage-gated potassium channel (KV) toxin from sea anemones. Comprised of just 17 residues, κ-actitoxin-Ate1a (Ate1a) is the shortest sea anemone toxin reported to date, and it adopts a novel three-dimensional structure that we have named the Proline-Hinged Asymmetric β-hairpin (PHAB) fold. Mass spectrometry imaging and bioassays suggest that Ate1a serves a primarily predatory function by immobilising prey, and we show this is achieved through inhibition of Shaker-type KV channels. Ate1a is encoded as a multi-domain precursor protein that yields multiple identical mature peptides, which likely evolved by multiple domain duplication events in an actinioidean ancestor. Despite this ancient evolutionary history, the PHAB-encoding gene family exhibits remarkable sequence conservation in the mature peptide domains. We demonstrate that this conservation is likely due to intra-gene concerted evolution, which has to our knowledge not previously been reported for toxin genes. We propose that the concerted evolution of toxin domains provides a hitherto unrecognised way to circumvent the effects of the costly evolutionary arms race considered to drive toxin gene evolution by ensuring efficient secretion of ecologically important predatory toxins.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

BACKGROUND: It is not known if the incidence of common cancers in Australian farm residents is different to rural non-farm or urban residents.METHODS: Data from farm, rural non-farm and urban participants of the 45 and Up Study cohort in New South Wales, Australia, were linked with state cancer registry data for the years 2006-2009. Directly standardised rate ratios for cancer incidence were compared for all-cancer, prostate, breast, colorectal cancer, melanoma and non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL). Proportional hazards regression was used to generate incidence hazard ratios for each cancer type adjusted for relevant confounders.RESULTS: Farm women had a significantly lower all-cancer hazard ratio than rural non-farm women (1.14, 1.01-1.29). However, the lower all-cancer risk observed in farm men, was not significant when compared to rural non-farm and urban counterparts. The all-cancer adjusted hazard ratio for combined rural non-farm and urban groups compared to farm referents, was significant for men (1.08,1.01-1.17) and women (1.13, 1.04-1.23). Confidence intervals did not exclude unity for differences in risk for prostate, breast, colorectal or lung cancers, NHL or melanoma. Whilst non-significant, farm residents had considerably lower risk of lung cancer than other residents after controlling for smoking and other factors.CONCLUSIONS: All-cancer risk was significantly lower in farm residents compared to combined rural non-farm and urban groups. Farm women had a significantly lower all-cancer adjusted hazard ratio than rural non-farm women. These differences appeared to be mainly due to lower lung cancer incidence in farm residents.

Introduction/Aim: In the fifty years since the Wittenoom crocidolite (blue asbestos) industry ceased operating, the epidemic of asbestosrelated diseases in Australia has intensified. Use of the employment records of the Australian Blue Asbestos Company and records of the Wittenoom township residents has permitted two cohorts of people with virtually exclusive exposure to blue asbestos to be assembled. Methods: Exposure data have been analysed and follow-up of these two cohorts has been conducted through all available public records including mortality records in all states of Australia and in Italy, cancer registries of Western Australia (WA) and Federal mesothelioma registries. Results: Although the pattern of occurrence of asbestos-related diseases in the Wittenoom cohorts has changed, there has been an ongoing epidemic of mortality from lung cancer and malignant mesothelioma and also from asbestosis. Benign pleural diseases continue to be seen. Quantitative exposure-response relationships have been established. Conclusion: The industrial disaster that was Wittenoom has been directly responsible for many deaths as well as ongoing disease and social issues in people who worked in the mine and mill, who lived in the town, were involved in the transport of asbestos or were exposed to the product occupationally, domestically or environmentally subsequently. The legacy continues. It has prompted the establishment of epidemiological, clinical and scientific research groups in order to understand the biology and behaviour of the various asbestos-related diseases and improve their diagnosis and clinical management, thereby contributing significantly to scientific knowledge.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

Introduction/Aim: In the fifty years since the Wittenoom crocidolite (blue asbestos) industry ceased operating, the epidemic of asbestosrelated diseases in Australia has intensified. Use of the employment records of the Australian Blue Asbestos Company and records of the Wittenoom township residents has permitted two cohorts of people with virtually exclusive exposure to blue asbestos to be assembled. Methods: Exposure data have been analysed and follow-up of these two cohorts has been conducted through all available public records including mortality records in all states of Australia and in Italy, cancer registries of Western Australia (WA) and Federal mesothelioma registries. Results: Although the pattern of occurrence of asbestos-related diseases in the Wittenoom cohorts has changed, there has been an ongoing epidemic of mortality from lung cancer and malignant mesothelioma and also from asbestosis. Benign pleural diseases continue to be seen. Quantitative exposure-response relationships have been established. Conclusion: The industrial disaster that was Wittenoom has been directly responsible for many deaths as well as ongoing disease and social issues in people who worked in the mine and mill, who lived in the town, were involved in the transport of asbestos or were exposed to the product occupationally, domestically or environmentally subsequently. The legacy continues. It has prompted the establishment of epidemiological, clinical and scientific research groups in order to understand the biology and behaviour of the various asbestos-related diseases and improve their diagnosis and clinical management, thereby contributing significantly to scientific knowledge.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

© 2018 Guo et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971–2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031–2080 compared with 1971–2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all

© 2018 Guo et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971–2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031–2080 compared with 1971–2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all

Introduction/Aim: In the fifty years since the Wittenoom crocidolite (blue asbestos) industry ceased operating, the epidemic of asbestos‐related diseases in Australia has intensified. Use of the employment records of the Australian Blue Asbestos Company and records of the Wittenoom township residents has permitted two cohorts of people with virtually exclusive exposure to blue asbestos to be assembled. Methods: Exposure data have been analysed and follow‐up of these two cohorts has been conducted through all available public records including mortality records in all states of Australia and in Italy, cancer registries of Western Australia (WA) and Federal mesothelioma registries. Results: Although the pattern of occurrence of asbestos‐related diseases in the Wittenoom cohorts has changed, there has been an ongoing epidemic of mortality from lung cancer and malignant mesothelioma and also from asbestosis. Benign pleural diseases continue to be seen. Quantitative exposure‐response relationships have been established. Conclusion: The industrial disaster that was Wittenoom has been directly responsible for many deaths as well as ongoing disease and social issues in people who worked in the mine and mill, who lived in the town, were involved in the transport of asbestos or were exposed to the product occupationally, domestically or environmentally subsequently. The legacy continues. It has prompted the establishment of epidemiological, clinical and scientific research groups in order to understand the biology and behaviour of the various asbestos‐related diseases and improve their diagnosis and clinical management, thereby contributing significantly to scientific knowledge.

Background: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Findings: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sh

CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026.METHODS: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave-mortality relation over lags of 0-10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.OBJECTIVES: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.RESULTS: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced s

BACKGROUND: In many places, daily mortality has been shown to increase after days with particularly high or low temperatures, but such daily time-series studies cannot identify whether such increases reflect substantial life shortening or short-term displacement of deaths (harvesting). OBJECTIVES: To clarify this issue, we estimated the association between annual mortality and annual summaries of heat and cold in 278 locations from 12 countries. METHODS: Indices of annual heat and cold were used as predictors in regressions of annual mortality in each location, allowing for trends over time and clustering of annual count anomalies by country and pooling estimates using meta-regression. We used two indices of annual heat and cold based on preliminary standard daily analyses: a) mean annual degrees above/below minimum mortality temperature (MMT), and b) estimated fractions of deaths attributed to heat and cold. The first index was simpler and matched previous related research; the second was added because it allowed the interpretation that coefficients equal to 0 and 1 are consistent with none (0) or all (1) of the deaths attributable in daily analyses being displaced by at least 1 y. RESULTS: On average, regression coefficients of annual mortality on heat and cold mean degrees were 1.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3, 3.1] and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.6) per degree, respectively, and daily attributable fractions were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.3) and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.4). The proximity of the latter coefficients to 1.0 provides evidence that most deaths found attributable to heat and cold in daily analyses were brought forward by at least 1 y. Estimates were broadly robust to alternative model assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide strong evidence that most deaths associated in daily analyses with heat and cold are displaced by at least 1 y.

In this study we evaluated the association between temperature variation and mortality and compared it with the contribution due to mean daily temperature in 6 cities with different climates. Quasi-Poisson time series regression models were applied to estimate the associations (relative risk and 95% confidence interval) of mean daily temperature (99th and 1st percentiles, with temperature of minimum mortality as the reference category), interday temperature variation (difference between the mean temperatures of 2 neighboring days) and intraday temperature variation (diurnal temperature range (DTR)) (referred to as median variation) with mortality in 6 cities: London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; Stockholm, Sweden; New York, New York; Miami, Florida; and Houston, Texas (date range, 1985-2010). All cities showed a substantial increase in mortality risk associated with mean daily temperature, with relative risks reaching 1.428 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.329, 1.533) for heat in Madrid and 1.467 (95% CI: 1.385, 1.555) for cold in London. Inconsistent results for inter-/intraday change were obtained, except for some evidence of protective associations on hot and cold days (relative risk (RR) = 0.977 (95% CI: 0.955, 0.999) and RR = 0.981 (95% CI: 0.971, 0.991), respectively) in Madrid and on cold days in Stockholm (RR = 0.989, 95% CI: 0.980, 0.998). Our results indicate that the association between mortality and temperature variation is generally minimal compared with mean daily temperatures, although further research on intraday changes is needed.

© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Habitat fragmentation in urban environments concentrates bird populations that have managed to adapt to these newly developed areas. Consequently, the roosts of these birds are potentially creating environments conducive to fungal growth and dissemination. Airborne fungi derived from these environments are relatively unstudied, as is the potential health risk arising from these fungi. This study documented the diversity of culturable airborne fungal propagules associated with forty urban bird roosts. Environmental variables from each site were recorded to allow us to analyse the correspondence between different bird species, the substrate they occupy and airborne fungal propagules. Associations were established between Rhodotorula and Pacific black ducks, wood ducks, myna birds and miner birds when in the presence of bare soil as a substrate. Further associations were established between Penicillium, Scopulariopsis and Cunninghamella and pigeons, sparrows and swallows living in areas with hard surfaces such as bitumen and rocks.

© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Habitat fragmentation in urban environments concentrates bird populations that have managed to adapt to these newly developed areas. Consequently, the roosts of these birds are potentially creating environments conducive to fungal growth and dissemination. Airborne fungi derived from these environments are relatively unstudied, as is the potential health risk arising from these fungi. This study documented the diversity of culturable airborne fungal propagules associated with forty urban bird roosts. Environmental variables from each site were recorded to allow us to analyse the correspondence between different bird species, the substrate they occupy and airborne fungal propagules. Associations were established between Rhodotorula and Pacific black ducks, wood ducks, myna birds and miner birds when in the presence of bare soil as a substrate. Further associations were established between Penicillium, Scopulariopsis and Cunninghamella and pigeons, sparrows and swallows living in areas with hard surfaces such as bitumen and rocks.

This biennial Review summarizes much of particle physics. Using data from previous editions, plus 2633 new measurements from 689 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of guage bosons, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We also summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as Higgs bosons, heavy neutrinos, and supersymmetric particles. All the particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We also give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as the Standard Model, particle detectors, probability, and statistics. among the 110 reviews are many that are new or heavily revised including those on CKM quark-mixing, V-ud & V-us, V-cb & V-ub, top quark, muon anomalous magnetic moment, extra dimensions, particle detectors, cosmic background radiation, dark matter, cosmological parameters, and big bang cosmology

© 2015 Gasparrini et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible f

Background and Purpose: The spider-venom peptide PcTx1 is the most potent and selective inhibitor of acid-sensing ion channel (ASIC) 1a. It has centrally acting analgesic activity and is neuroprotective in rodent models of ischaemic stroke. Understanding the molecular details of the PcTx1: ASIC1a interaction should facilitate development of therapeutically useful ASIC1a modulators. Previously, we showed that several key pharmacophore residues of PcTx1 reside in a dynamic ß-hairpin loop; conclusions confirmed by recent crystal structures of the complex formed between PcTx1 and chicken ASIC1 (cASIC1). Numerous peptide: channel contacts were observed in these crystal structures, but it remains unclear which of these are functionally important. Experimental Approach: We combined molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the PcTx1: cASIC1 complex with mutagenesis of PcTx1 and rat ASIC1a. Key Results: Crystal structures of the PcTx1: cASIC1 complex indicated that 15 PcTx1 residues form a total of 57 pairwise intermolecular contacts (