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The Spanish region of Andalusia is the world-leading olive oil producer. Its olive-dominated landscapes are among the most biodiverse drylands of the globe and prospectively among the areas most affected by climate change. This analysis used physiologically based demographic modeling (PBDM) to assess the impact of climate change on the olive/olive fly system of Andalusia. The analysis was implemented on cloud computing, allowing PBDM models to be run from any computer connected to the internet, to interface with state-of-the-art climatic drivers, and to scale efficiently with increasing computational loads and user requests. Findings include that chilling required for olive blooming will decrease in large areas of the Andalusian provinces of Jaen, Cordoba, and Sevilla, with some areas not meeting the minimum chilling threshold and some accumulating no chilling by the end of the century under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. Olive blooming will occur up to five weeks earlier in the Jaen, Cordoba, Sevilla, and Granada provinces, but olive yield is expected to increase or remain stable. Olive fly infestation will decrease with climate change, with infestations below the reference economic threshold of 4 % towards the end of the century in some areas under high GHG emission scenario. Measures to adapt Andalusian olive systems to climate change include: selecting olive cultivars with lower chilling requirements; implementing cover crops to enhance water use efficiency under increased CO2 concentration and uncertain precipitation projections; and targeting the spring generation of the fly and diversifying the olive landscape to reduce infestation levels., We acknowledge Dr. Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, for providing early access to the AgERA5 data. The Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (http://www.casasglobal.org/) provided logistical and scientific support to the MED-GOLD project. This work was supported by the project MED-GOLD that received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 776467 and by the project TEBAKA (project ID: ARS01_00815) co-funded by the European Union - ERDF and ESF, “PON Ricerca e Innovazione 2014-2020”., Peer Reviewed, "Article signat per 19 autors/es: Luigi Ponti, Andrew Paul Gutierrez, Christos Giannakopoulos, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Javier López Nevado, Silvia López Feria, Freddy Wilmer Rivas González, Federico Caboni, Federica Stocchino, Adolfo Rosati, Damiano Marchionni, José Ricardo Cure, Daniel Rodríguez, Marta Terrado, Matteo De Felice, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Sandro Calmanti, Ricardo Arjona, Michael Sanderson", Postprint (published version)

Everybody wants their employer to recognise and value the skills and attributes they have, but not everybody feels those skills are valued. Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond looks at the link between skills, actions and attributes, and the value they present: value in terms of how an employee can be more valuable to the company they work for – in essence, more employable. The book aims to answer the question: why are entrepreneurial attributes we see in businesspeople valued, but in non-businesspeople they are sometimes not recognised when there is a clear link between entrepreneurial skills and attributes, human capital (effectively your CV) and how successfully a company performs? Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond discusses how we currently view skills, actions and attributes, and how those attributes add value to a person in life and to a business that person works for. The author questions whether certain skills and actions are unrecognised or neglected in today’s world, and uses case studies and research methodologies to illustrate how value can be recognised and appreciated within the context of human capital and firm performance. Finally, the book offers tools and strategies which may assist the reader in gaining a better understanding of the way in which their entrepreneurial actions and attributes can enhance their value as a person and also make them more employable. This book also offers businesses tools to better recognise and reward the skills it needs. The ideal audience for this book are those of us who wish to better evidence the skills and value we can offer a company; Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond will find an appreciative audience wherever there is a keen interest in the recognition and value of employee skills and attributes.

Everybody wants their employer to recognise and value the skills and attributes they have, but not everybody feels those skills are valued. Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond looks at the link between skills, actions and attributes, and the value they present: value in terms of how an employee can be more valuable to the company they work for – in essence, more employable. The book aims to answer the question: why are entrepreneurial attributes we see in businesspeople valued, but in non-businesspeople they are sometimes not recognised when there is a clear link between entrepreneurial skills and attributes, human capital (effectively your CV) and how successfully a company performs? Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond discusses how we currently view skills, actions and attributes, and how those attributes add value to a person in life and to a business that person works for. The author questions whether certain skills and actions are unrecognised or neglected in today’s world, and uses case studies and research methodologies to illustrate how value can be recognised and appreciated within the context of human capital and firm performance. Finally, the book offers tools and strategies which may assist the reader in gaining a better understanding of the way in which their entrepreneurial actions and attributes can enhance their value as a person and also make them more employable. This book also offers businesses tools to better recognise and reward the skills it needs. The ideal audience for this book are those of us who wish to better evidence the skills and value we can offer a company; Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond will find an appreciative audience wherever there is a keen interest in the recognition and value of employee skills and attributes.

Everybody wants their employer to recognise and value the skills and attributes they have, but not everybody feels those skills are valued. Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond looks at the link between skills, actions and attributes, and the value they present: value in terms of how an employee can be more valuable to the company they work for – in essence, more employable. The book aims to answer the question: why are entrepreneurial attributes we see in businesspeople valued, but in non-businesspeople they are sometimes not recognised when there is a clear link between entrepreneurial skills and attributes, human capital (effectively your CV) and how successfully a company performs? Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond discusses how we currently view skills, actions and attributes, and how those attributes add value to a person in life and to a business that person works for. The author questions whether certain skills and actions are unrecognised or neglected in today’s world, and uses case studies and research methodologies to illustrate how value can be recognised and appreciated within the context of human capital and firm performance. Finally, the book offers tools and strategies which may assist the reader in gaining a better understanding of the way in which their entrepreneurial actions and attributes can enhance their value as a person and also make them more employable. This book also offers businesses tools to better recognise and reward the skills it needs. The ideal audience for this book are those of us who wish to better evidence the skills and value we can offer a company; Entrepreneurial Attributes: Accessing Your Inner Entrepreneur for Business and Beyond will find an appreciative audience wherever there is a keen interest in the recognition and value of employee skills and attributes.

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict the geographic range and relative abundance of these and other invasive species, and to put eradication policies on a scientific basis.

Tropical fruit flies are considered among the most economically important invasive species detected in temperate areas of the United States and the European Union. Detections often trigger quarantine and eradication programs that are conducted without a holistic understanding of the threat posed. Weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models are used to estimate the geographic range, relative abundance, and threat posed by four tropical tephritid fruit flies (Mediterranean fruit fly, melon fly, oriental fruit fly, and Mexican fruit fly) in North and Central America, and the European-Mediterranean region under extant and climate change weather (RCP8.5 and A1B scenarios). Most temperate areas under tropical fruit fly propagule pressure have not been suitable for establishment, but suitability is predicted to increase in some areas with climate change. To meet this ongoing challenge, investments are needed to collect sound biological data to develop mechanistic models to predict the geographic range and relative abundance of these and other invasive species, and to put eradication policies on a scientific basis.

In many river basins, environmental water is used to mitigate the impact of anthropogenic change on freshwater ecosystems, such as water abstractions or river regulation. However, climate change presents significant threats to freshwater ecosystems worldwide, and jeopardises investments in environmental water management. Existing environmental water regimes tend to assume climatic stationarity and pursue flow recommendations based on long-term historic flow statistics. Changes in the hydrological cycle can reduce water availability, increase the likelihood of damaging floods and droughts, or increase competition for freshwater ecosystems through the proliferation of invasive species. These changes also make it more difficult to achieve river management objectives derived from historic flow regimes and water availability with environmental water. A better understanding of the impact of climate change on environmental water outcomes, and how flow regimes can be adapted, is needed to promote sustainable river management. Adapting to climate change requires both predicting the ecological consequences of changes in hydroclimatic conditions and assessing the effectiveness of intervention and adaptation options available to river managers. These tasks are hampered by large uncertainties in how the climate may change and how ecohydrological factors will respond. River managers need methods and tools that accommodate this uncertainty and help them to make decisions that are robust under differing climate futures. The primary objective of this thesis is to assist in understanding and managing the impacts of climate change on environmental water outcomes. Four research questions were identified toward this objective: Which combinations of hydrological and ecological modelling methods provide the most useful outputs for understanding risks for freshwater ecosystems in the context of uncertain climate change? How can water resource models be improved to allow the consideration o

Purpose This case study explores marketing strategies that UK fish farming businesses can employ to gain a competitive advantage. The marketing strategies examined include product branding and core competencies, sales promotion, market positioning and segmentation. Methodology A survey through an online questionnaire was mailed to 5 randomly selected trade associations of UK fish farming businesses and distributed to their registered members, of which 200 responded. Both male and female genders with different age groups and levels of experience in the UK fish farming business participated. In addition, ten articles were sampled for a systematic review. Findings Results show that UK fish farming businesses could increase sales by using eco-labels in product branding to attract premium prices, build consumer confidence, and using high-quality packages for fish products will keep fish fresh for a longer period. Originality A significant recommendation from this case study is that fish farming businesses need to be creative and innovative in ways such as leveraging branding, sales promotions, and core competencies to win the trust and confidence of consumers. Most importantly, each fish farming business should know the specific marketing strategy that works for them; this case study shows that not all branding and sales promotion techniques enhance competitiveness. The scope of the research is limited to the UK. The findings cannot be generalised and used for other jurisdictions because of variable economic and market conditions.

Purpose This case study explores marketing strategies that UK fish farming businesses can employ to gain a competitive advantage. The marketing strategies examined include product branding and core competencies, sales promotion, market positioning and segmentation. Methodology A survey through an online questionnaire was mailed to 5 randomly selected trade associations of UK fish farming businesses and distributed to their registered members, of which 200 responded. Both male and female genders with different age groups and levels of experience in the UK fish farming business participated. In addition, ten articles were sampled for a systematic review. Findings Results show that UK fish farming businesses could increase sales by using eco-labels in product branding to attract premium prices, build consumer confidence, and using high-quality packages for fish products will keep fish fresh for a longer period. Originality A significant recommendation from this case study is that fish farming businesses need to be creative and innovative in ways such as leveraging branding, sales promotions, and core competencies to win the trust and confidence of consumers. Most importantly, each fish farming business should know the specific marketing strategy that works for them; this case study shows that not all branding and sales promotion techniques enhance competitiveness. The scope of the research is limited to the UK. The findings cannot be generalised and used for other jurisdictions because of variable economic and market conditions.

Severe flooding in the United Kingdom is often linked to the occurrence of heavy rainfall events, which can be characterized by the synoptic scale meteorological conditions over the North Atlantic region. Seasonal heavy rainfall events (summer and winter 1-day maxima) were extracted from 125 locations across Great Britain over the period 1950–2017. For each event, anomaly sea-level pressure and 2 m air temperature conditions across the North Atlantic sector were extracted. In contrast to earlier studies, these two datasets were combined and clustered to identify how the pressure and temperature conditions co-vary within each half-year to produce heavy rainfall events. Distinctly different spatial patterns were found for four classes in summer and for three classes in winter. For all classes there is a negative sea-level pressure anomaly centred over or near the British Isles. However, whereas in summer the low pressures are associated with either predominantly cold or warm anomalies over most of the North Atlantic, in winter two phases of a smaller-scale four-pole temperature pattern emerges. Nevertheless, for one of the winter classes the cold anomaly over the northwest Atlantic is so deep, persistent and widespread that, unusually for the winter season, a significant relationship between the class's frequency of occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is found (r = −.39). Further, for both seasons heavy rainfall occurs when the AMO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are in opposing phases. Particularly, positive NAO and negative AMO result in heavy rainfall in western Britain. Two classes in each season are consistent with positive and negative phases of the NAO, and the two non-NAO summer classes are associated with a northward extension of the subtropical high pressure and heavy rainfall in the southeast. The association between heavy rainfall and large-scale circulation and temperature drivers can find application in, for example

Purpose This case study explores marketing strategies that UK fish farming businesses can employ to gain a competitive advantage. The marketing strategies examined include product branding and core competencies, sales promotion, market positioning and segmentation. Methodology A survey through an online questionnaire was mailed to 5 randomly selected trade associations of UK fish farming businesses and distributed to their registered members, of which 200 responded. Both male and female genders with different age groups and levels of experience in the UK fish farming business participated. In addition, ten articles were sampled for a systematic review. Findings Results show that UK fish farming businesses could increase sales by using eco-labels in product branding to attract premium prices, build consumer confidence, and using high-quality packages for fish products will keep fish fresh for a longer period. Originality A significant recommendation from this case study is that fish farming businesses need to be creative and innovative in ways such as leveraging branding, sales promotions, and core competencies to win the trust and confidence of consumers. Most importantly, each fish farming business should know the specific marketing strategy that works for them; this case study shows that not all branding and sales promotion techniques enhance competitiveness. The scope of the research is limited to the UK. The findings cannot be generalised and used for other jurisdictions because of variable economic and market conditions.

The Theatre and Dance Platform holds a digital copy (PDF) of the archived clipping in the Lucy Guerin Inc collection., Review of Lucy Guerin's Love Me at Arts House Meat Market, North Melbourne, VIC, 25 July 2007.

The Theatre and Dance Platform holds a digital copy (PDF) of the archived clipping in the Lucy Guerin Inc collection., Review of Lucy Guerin's Love Me at Arts House Meat Market, North Melbourne, VIC, 25 July 2007.

(1) Background: Passenger vehicles equipped with advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) functionalities are becoming more prevalent within vehicle fleets. However, the full effects of offering such systems, which may allow for drivers to become less than 100% engaged with the task of driving, may have detrimental impacts on other road-users, particularly vulnerable road-users, for a variety of reasons. (2) Crash data were analysed in two countries (Great Britain and Australia) to examine some challenging traffic scenarios that are prevalent in both countries and represent scenarios in which future connected and autonomous vehicles may be challenged in terms of safe manoeuvring. (3) Road intersections are currently very common locations for vulnerable road-user accidents; traffic flows and road-user behaviours at intersections can be unpredictable, with many vehicles behaving inconsistently (e.g., red-light running and failure to stop or give way), and many vulnerable road-users taking unforeseen risks. (4) Conclusions: The challenges of unpredictable vulnerable road-user behaviour at intersections (including road-users violating traffic or safe-crossing signals, or taking other risks) combined with the lack of knowledge of CAV responses to intersection rules, could be problematic. This could be further compounded by changes to nonverbal communication that currently exist between road-users, which could become more challenging once CAVs become more widespread.

Severe flooding in the United Kingdom is often linked to the occurrence of heavy rainfall events, which can be characterized by the synoptic scale meteorological conditions over the North Atlantic region. Seasonal heavy rainfall events (summer and winter 1-day maxima) were extracted from 125 locations across Great Britain over the period 1950–2017. For each event, anomaly sea-level pressure and 2 m air temperature conditions across the North Atlantic sector were extracted. In contrast to earlier studies, these two datasets were combined and clustered to identify how the pressure and temperature conditions co-vary within each half-year to produce heavy rainfall events. Distinctly different spatial patterns were found for four classes in summer and for three classes in winter. For all classes there is a negative sea-level pressure anomaly centred over or near the British Isles. However, whereas in summer the low pressures are associated with either predominantly cold or warm anomalies over most of the North Atlantic, in winter two phases of a smaller-scale four-pole temperature pattern emerges. Nevertheless, for one of the winter classes the cold anomaly over the northwest Atlantic is so deep, persistent and widespread that, unusually for the winter season, a significant relationship between the class's frequency of occurrence and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is found (r = −.39). Further, for both seasons heavy rainfall occurs when the AMO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are in opposing phases. Particularly, positive NAO and negative AMO result in heavy rainfall in western Britain. Two classes in each season are consistent with positive and negative phases of the NAO, and the two non-NAO summer classes are associated with a northward extension of the subtropical high pressure and heavy rainfall in the southeast. The association between heavy rainfall and large-scale circulation and temperature drivers can find application in, for example

The Theatre and Dance Platform holds a digital copy (PDF) of the archived clipping in the Lucy Guerin Inc collection., Review of Lucy Guerin's Love Me at Arts House Meat Market, North Melbourne, VIC, 25 July 2007.

Coffee, after petroleum, is the most valuable commodity globally in terms of total value (harvest to coffee cup). Here, our bioeconomic analysis considers the multitude of factors that influence coffee production. The system model used in the analysis incorporates realistic field models based on considerable new field data and models for coffee plant growth and development, the coffee/coffee berry borer (CBB) dynamics in response to coffee berry production and the role of the CBB parasitoids and their interactions in control of CBB. Cultural control of CBB by harvesting, cleanup of abscised fruits, and chemical sprays previously considered are reexamined here to include biopesticides for control of CBB such as entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae) and entomopathogenic nematodes (Steinernema sp., Heterorhabditis). The bioeconomic analysis estimates the potential of each control tactic singly and in combination for control of CBB. The analysis explains why frequent intensive harvesting of coffee is by far the most effective and economically viable control practice for reducing CBB infestations in Colombia and Brazil.

Coffee, after petroleum, is the most valuable commodity globally in terms of total value (harvest to coffee cup). Here, our bioeconomic analysis considers the multitude of factors that influence coffee production. The system model used in the analysis incorporates realistic field models based on considerable new field data and models for coffee plant growth and development, the coffee/coffee berry borer (CBB) dynamics in response to coffee berry production and the role of the CBB parasitoids and their interactions in control of CBB. Cultural control of CBB by harvesting, cleanup of abscised fruits, and chemical sprays previously considered are reexamined here to include biopesticides for control of CBB such as entomopathogenic fungi (Beauveria bassiana, Metarhizium anisopliae) and entomopathogenic nematodes (Steinernema sp., Heterorhabditis). The bioeconomic analysis estimates the potential of each control tactic singly and in combination for control of CBB. The analysis explains why frequent intensive harvesting of coffee is by far the most effective and economically viable control practice for reducing CBB infestations in Colombia and Brazil.

Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Aims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied. Methods and results Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms. Conclusion Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Existing literature establishes that network position is a key factor shaping levels of deviance and conformity. We also know that organizational structure and form can shape network connections for individuals, effectively structuring the network. My dissertation engages with the empirical literature on violent conflict in order to examine how network position in a status hierarchy is related to various outcomes of interest to scholars of armed conflict. Based on theories drawn from the Blau Space approach as well as middle status conformity theories drawn from social psychology, I argue that actors with neither an over-abundance of social ties, nor a dearth of social ties in a network will be least likely to exhibit deviance during conflict. Meanwhile actors that are either oversocializaed or isolated will be more likely to exhibit behavior deemed to be deviant. I test this argument across two major contexts. First a national level analysis, and then a cross-national analysis, is undertaken. A final test explores key mechanisms that underlie the ecological associations I have found. My first study examines the deviant act of defection, or side switching between organizations in conflict using the case of the war in Sierra Leone (1991-2002). I argue based on the Blau Space theory that individuals who share the most social ties, as well as those who are isolated, should be most likely to defect between organizations, rather than those with a middle tier level of social ties. I test this argument by means of a secondary analysis of a representative survey of disarmed combatants from the war. Using statistical tests appropriate for rare categorical outcomes, I find support for the focal argument. The second study explores the extent to which integration in the global network of International Non-governmental Organizations (INGOs) is related to state armed forces’ use of what I term large-scale sexual violence during conflict. While world polity approaches would sugges

This dissertation looks at how decisions are affected by uncertainty. The first chapter examines the effect of uncertainty on costly effort in a strategic environment. The second chapter asks a similar question in a field setting, looking at student responses to the uncertainty that is brought about by smaller classes. The third chapter explores the role of uncertainty on self-signaling by looking at difference in demand for stigmatized goods under weak or strong self-signals

This dissertation looks at how decisions are affected by uncertainty. The first chapter examines the effect of uncertainty on costly effort in a strategic environment. The second chapter asks a similar question in a field setting, looking at student responses to the uncertainty that is brought about by smaller classes. The third chapter explores the role of uncertainty on self-signaling by looking at difference in demand for stigmatized goods under weak or strong self-signals

The number of cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantations has increased over recent years as a result of population growth, increasing life expectancy, adoption of guidelines, and better access to healthcare. Transvenous lead extraction (TLE), as a part of an overall lead management strategy, has also been increasing, not only as a consequence of this growth, but also because of increasing rates of infection, lead failure, awareness of indications for lead management, and development of extraction tools. Clinical research is essential for understanding efficacy and risks of TLE, which has important implications regarding decision-making and therapeutic strategies in patients who are candidates for this procedure. Data on TLE have mainly come from retrospective series, with variable reporting of endpoints. Recently, the ELECTRa registry conducted by the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), has reported the largest prospective experience on lead extraction published to date in 3555 patients recruited from 19 European countries. There remain unresolved issues, which is a strong incentive for conducting further specifically-designed clinical trials to answer important questions in this area. In addition to clinical studies, national registries are potentially useful for evaluating epidemiology of TLE as well as for quality control and understanding resource implications. Standardization of definitions and reporting of parameters are paramount in order to analyse, compare, and pool data for scientific purposes. Expert consensus statements on lead extraction have been published by the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) in 2009 and 2017, and by EHRA in 2012. Experience from the ELECTRa registry has been valuable for identifying challenges faced with conducting scientific studies in this field, and provides a framework for future endeavours. This writing group has been commissioned by EHRA to provide recommendations for designing scientific studies, reports and

RNA plays a central role in a multitude of cellular processes. Understanding the complex interplay between its structure and function is a requisite for understanding these cellular roles mechanisms of action. Herein we describe technologies that we have developed to help better study RNA structure and function via NMR. Our development of site-selectively isotopically labeled pyrimidine and purine nucleotides has reduced spectral crowding, eliminated problems associated with scalar coupling, and led to novel assignment protocols. We have applied these labels to a 61-nucleotide viral RNA element, HBV-ε. This RNA is central Hepatitis B’s viral life cycle. Its NMR resonances have been assigned and initial structure calculations have begun to show how it interacts with compounds screened to bind to an internal six nucleotide bulge.

Intra-mammary antibiotics are widely used, and are an important contributor to the control of bovine mastitis. The concentrations of antibiotic drugs in milk after intra-mammary administration is highly important for food protection and treatment efficacy. In this project, novel mathematical and statistical models were developed to describe the pharmacokinetics of antibiotic drugs after intra-mammary administration. This approach combined physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models to capture the unique features of the mammary gland, and large-scale mixed-effects analysis to understand these effects at the level of the treated population. The developed models perform well across various drug types and production conditions, and it is proposed that these models are suitable as a generalized method for the description and analysis of drug concentration in milk. Further, the developed methods are applied to study the statistical performance of the various existing methods used to study milk residues in the regulatory context. A derived model is discussed, which is suitable for application to regulatory conditions for the determination of milk discard times.

DNA shape is emerging as an important determinant of transcription factor binding beyond just the DNA sequence. The only tool for large scale DNA shape estimates, DNAshape was derived from Monte-Carlo simulations and predicts four broad and static DNA shape features, Propeller twist, Helical twist, Minor groove width and Roll. The contributions of other shape features e.g. Shift, Slide and Opening cannot be evaluated using DNAshape. Here, we report a novel method DynaSeq, which predicts molecular dynamics-derived ensembles of a more exhaustive set of DNA shape features. We compared the DNAshape and DynaSeq predictions for the common features and applied both to predict the genome-wide binding sites of 1312 TFs available from protein interaction quantification (PIQ) data. The results indicate a good agreement between the two methods for the common shape features and point to advantages in using DynaSeq. Predictive models employing ensembles from individual conformational parameters revealed that base-pair opening - known to be important in strand separation - was the best predictor of transcription factor-binding sites (TFBS) followed by features employed by DNAshape. Of note, TFBS could be predicted not only from the features at the target motif sites, but also from those as far as 200 nucleotides away from the motif.

The use of theoretical chemistry techniques in the investigation of catalytic reactions has been able to provide strong insights into the inner workings of various chemical mechanisms. In tandem with experimental results, such studies often provide information by computing reaction rates with transition state theory, predicting and/or confirming various spectroscopic experiments, and elucidating the identities and structures of key stable intermediates and short-lived transition states. The present work is concerned with the application of these techniques to the study of the oxidative carbonization of toluene to toluic acid over Rh(III) and Pd(II), as well as the development of theoretical techniques to efficiently find ab initio transition states for use in such studies. Previous work has shown that the oxidative carbonylation of toluene to form toluic acid is possible with Rh(III) and Pd(II) with acetic acid. These reactions are believed to operate via a rate-limiting electrophilic mechanism in which toluene binds to the metal complex and has a C-H bond activated. Previous works have suggested that the active catalyst for the Rh(III) system is Rh(CF3COO)3(CO)2, and Pd(CF3COO)2 for the Pd(II) system, though these were not rigorously confirmed. In this work, we properly identify the Rh(III) species as the active catalyst through a series of ab initio spectroscopic calculations with comparison to experiments. Additionally, an unprecedented interaction between an acetate and carbonyl ligand on the Rh(CF3COO)2(CO)2 catalyst is investigated and found to be the result of an unusual charge balance within the structure. Prior work has shown that using trifluoroacetic acid instead of acetic acid significantly increases the rate of reaction, without investigating further. This work demonstrates that the reaction rate passes through a maximum for intermediate strength acids, which is due to competition between the two sub-steps of the rate-limiting step. Weakly basic anionic

The use of theoretical chemistry techniques in the investigation of catalytic reactions has been able to provide strong insights into the inner workings of various chemical mechanisms. In tandem with experimental results, such studies often provide information by computing reaction rates with transition state theory, predicting and/or confirming various spectroscopic experiments, and elucidating the identities and structures of key stable intermediates and short-lived transition states. The present work is concerned with the application of these techniques to the study of the oxidative carbonization of toluene to toluic acid over Rh(III) and Pd(II), as well as the development of theoretical techniques to efficiently find ab initio transition states for use in such studies. Previous work has shown that the oxidative carbonylation of toluene to form toluic acid is possible with Rh(III) and Pd(II) with acetic acid. These reactions are believed to operate via a rate-limiting electrophilic mechanism in which toluene binds to the metal complex and has a C-H bond activated. Previous works have suggested that the active catalyst for the Rh(III) system is Rh(CF3COO)3(CO)2, and Pd(CF3COO)2 for the Pd(II) system, though these were not rigorously confirmed. In this work, we properly identify the Rh(III) species as the active catalyst through a series of ab initio spectroscopic calculations with comparison to experiments. Additionally, an unprecedented interaction between an acetate and carbonyl ligand on the Rh(CF3COO)2(CO)2 catalyst is investigated and found to be the result of an unusual charge balance within the structure. Prior work has shown that using trifluoroacetic acid instead of acetic acid significantly increases the rate of reaction, without investigating further. This work demonstrates that the reaction rate passes through a maximum for intermediate strength acids, which is due to competition between the two sub-steps of the rate-limiting step. Weakly basic anionic

The highly polyphagous light brown apple moth (LBAM) (Epiphyas postvittana (Walk.): Tortricidae) is indigenous to Australia and was first found in California in 2006. It is currently found in 15 coastal counties in California, but nowhere has it reached outbreak status. The USDA projects the geographic range of LBAM will include much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US, which together with economic estimates of potential crop losses have been used as the rationale for an eradication program in California. We report a temperature-driven demographic model to predict the likely distribution and relative abundance of LBAM using the detailed biology reported by Danthanarayana and colleagues, and climate data from 151 locations in California and Arizona for the period 1995–2006. The predictions of our model suggest that the near coastal regions of California are most favorable for LBAM, the northern Central Valley of California being less favorable, and the desert regions of Arizona and California being unfavorable. The model also predicts that LBAM populations can develop at two of the hottest locations in SE Australia where it is has long been known to occur. This reassessment of the potential distribution of LBAM in California and Arizona suggests that its likely ecological and economic impacts would be less than previously assessed by USDA and that its current pest status warrants re-evaluation.

The highly polyphagous light brown apple moth (LBAM) (Epiphyas postvittana (Walk.): Tortricidae) is indigenous to Australia and was first found in California in 2006. It is currently found in 15 coastal counties in California, but nowhere has it reached outbreak status. The USDA projects the geographic range of LBAM will include much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US, which together with economic estimates of potential crop losses have been used as the rationale for an eradication program in California. We report a temperature-driven demographic model to predict the likely distribution and relative abundance of LBAM using the detailed biology reported by Danthanarayana and colleagues, and climate data from 151 locations in California and Arizona for the period 1995–2006. The predictions of our model suggest that the near coastal regions of California are most favorable for LBAM, the northern Central Valley of California being less favorable, and the desert regions of Arizona and California being unfavorable. The model also predicts that LBAM populations can develop at two of the hottest locations in SE Australia where it is has long been known to occur. This reassessment of the potential distribution of LBAM in California and Arizona suggests that its likely ecological and economic impacts would be less than previously assessed by USDA and that its current pest status warrants re-evaluation.

This dissertation examines Late Formative Period (200 BC-300 AD) communities of potting practice at the three settlements of Kala Uyuni, Kumi Kipa and Sonaji on the Taraco Peninsula, of the Lake Titicaca Basin, Bolivia. Ceramics play a central role in defining the social boundaries of prehistoric communities in the region. However our current narratives are stymied for the Late Formative Period, which precedes the appearance of the urban center of Tiwanaku (AD 400- 950). This is partly due to a reliance on ceramic design style. This study develops a practice-oriented approach to define Taraco Peninsula technological styles, refine the local ceramic chronology and evaluate the relationship between Late Formative communities and pottery. A "communities of practice" approach (Lave and Wenger 1991), which stresses the social entanglements between learning and identity, drives the analysis of the subtle changes in production sequences and their related consumption practices. Pottery production and consumption at Kala Uyuni, Kumi Kipa and Sonaji were analyzed through attribute analysis, petrography, x-ray fluorescence and x-ray diffraction. Shifts in learned bodily practice, such as surface finishing techniques, and a suite of new technological choices, including paste preparation, define both the transition to the Late Formative Period and internal sub-phases. These technological choices were likely linked to a larger symbolic landscape and embedded in a greater productive taskscape. The spatial context of production tools suggests that pottery was manufacture in all three settlements. A survey of the local hills found that potters likely used local clays, while petrography showed that tempers were added and may have been collected further afield. The similarity in operational sequences and paste recipes indicates that Taraco potters were a single learning community and part of their identities were likely constituted through their skillful potting practice. Consumption

This dissertation examines Late Formative Period (200 BC-300 AD) communities of potting practice at the three settlements of Kala Uyuni, Kumi Kipa and Sonaji on the Taraco Peninsula, of the Lake Titicaca Basin, Bolivia. Ceramics play a central role in defining the social boundaries of prehistoric communities in the region. However our current narratives are stymied for the Late Formative Period, which precedes the appearance of the urban center of Tiwanaku (AD 400- 950). This is partly due to a reliance on ceramic design style. This study develops a practice-oriented approach to define Taraco Peninsula technological styles, refine the local ceramic chronology and evaluate the relationship between Late Formative communities and pottery. A "communities of practice" approach (Lave and Wenger 1991), which stresses the social entanglements between learning and identity, drives the analysis of the subtle changes in production sequences and their related consumption practices. Pottery production and consumption at Kala Uyuni, Kumi Kipa and Sonaji were analyzed through attribute analysis, petrography, x-ray fluorescence and x-ray diffraction. Shifts in learned bodily practice, such as surface finishing techniques, and a suite of new technological choices, including paste preparation, define both the transition to the Late Formative Period and internal sub-phases. These technological choices were likely linked to a larger symbolic landscape and embedded in a greater productive taskscape. The spatial context of production tools suggests that pottery was manufacture in all three settlements. A survey of the local hills found that potters likely used local clays, while petrography showed that tempers were added and may have been collected further afield. The similarity in operational sequences and paste recipes indicates that Taraco potters were a single learning community and part of their identities were likely constituted through their skillful potting practice. Consumption

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Chemistry, 2015., This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections., Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis., Includes bibliographical references (pages 299-327)., Single-molecule spectroscopy has been a critical tool for the development and understanding of semiconductor nanocrystals because of their inherent heterogeneity size-dependent properties. In the past two decades, researchers have developed a diverse toolbox of single-nanocrystal techniques and analyses that is capable of elucidating the complex physics of nanocrystal fluorescence and characterizing many of the subtle but important optical properties of nanocrystal samples. This effort has been enabled by the flexible and modular structure of the single-molecule microscope, which offers a multitude of opportunities for shaping the information gained from single-nanocrystal experiments and provides a convenient and powerful framework for creativity in experimental design. In this thesis, we present two investigations that illustrate the full range and versatility of single-nanocrystal spectroscopy and, in particular, of photon correlation analysis. In Part I, we use single-nanocrystal spectroscopy as a tool for elucidating basic physics by investigating the rapid spectral diffusion of individual nanocrystals at low temperature. We develop a technique capable of measuring spectral dynamics over eight orders of magnitude in time ranging form microseconds to hundreds of seconds, and show that we can extract previously unavailable information about the spectral diffusion mechanism. In Part II, we use single-nanocrystal spectroscopy as a tool for characterizing optical properties by devising an experiment to measure the average biexciton quantum yield of nanocrystal samples. This experiment allows us to measure the biexcitonic properties of underdeveloped materials and can serve as a quick and reliable characterization technique to aid in synthetic optimization. Finally, in Part III, we look to the future by highlighting several modifications of existing experiments that could reveal new and exciting insight into nanocrystals., by Andrew Paul Beyler., Ph. D.

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Chemistry, 2015., This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections., Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis., Includes bibliographical references (pages 299-327)., Single-molecule spectroscopy has been a critical tool for the development and understanding of semiconductor nanocrystals because of their inherent heterogeneity size-dependent properties. In the past two decades, researchers have developed a diverse toolbox of single-nanocrystal techniques and analyses that is capable of elucidating the complex physics of nanocrystal fluorescence and characterizing many of the subtle but important optical properties of nanocrystal samples. This effort has been enabled by the flexible and modular structure of the single-molecule microscope, which offers a multitude of opportunities for shaping the information gained from single-nanocrystal experiments and provides a convenient and powerful framework for creativity in experimental design. In this thesis, we present two investigations that illustrate the full range and versatility of single-nanocrystal spectroscopy and, in particular, of photon correlation analysis. In Part I, we use single-nanocrystal spectroscopy as a tool for elucidating basic physics by investigating the rapid spectral diffusion of individual nanocrystals at low temperature. We develop a technique capable of measuring spectral dynamics over eight orders of magnitude in time ranging form microseconds to hundreds of seconds, and show that we can extract previously unavailable information about the spectral diffusion mechanism. In Part II, we use single-nanocrystal spectroscopy as a tool for characterizing optical properties by devising an experiment to measure the average biexciton quantum yield of nanocrystal samples. This experiment allows us to measure the biexcitonic properties of underdeveloped materials and can serve as a quick and reliable characterization technique to aid in synthetic optimization. Finally, in Part III, we look to the future by highlighting several modifications of existing experiments that could reveal new and exciting insight into nanocrystals., by Andrew Paul Beyler., Ph. D.

Contribution to ARI Remix. ARI remix is a three-year digital humanities, artist interviews and oral history project collecting and presenting memories of Australian Artist-run culture in Queensland, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory between 1980 and 2000. Its focus is fleshing out and illuminating the ephemeral and neglected histories of the many lively and socially engaged artistic scenes along the east coast of Australia during the last two decades of the 20th century.

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Chemistry, 2015., This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections., Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis., Includes bibliographical references (pages 299-327)., Single-molecule spectroscopy has been a critical tool for the development and understanding of semiconductor nanocrystals because of their inherent heterogeneity size-dependent properties. In the past two decades, researchers have developed a diverse toolbox of single-nanocrystal techniques and analyses that is capable of elucidating the complex physics of nanocrystal fluorescence and characterizing many of the subtle but important optical properties of nanocrystal samples. This effort has been enabled by the flexible and modular structure of the single-molecule microscope, which offers a multitude of opportunities for shaping the information gained from single-nanocrystal experiments and provides a convenient and powerful framework for creativity in experimental design. In this thesis, we present two investigations that illustrate the full range and versatility of single-nanocrystal spectroscopy and, in particular, of photon correlation analysis. In Part I, we use single-nanocrystal spectroscopy as a tool for elucidating basic physics by investigating the rapid spectral diffusion of individual nanocrystals at low temperature. We develop a technique capable of measuring spectral dynamics over eight orders of magnitude in time ranging form microseconds to hundreds of seconds, and show that we can extract previously unavailable information about the spectral diffusion mechanism. In Part II, we use single-nanocrystal spectroscopy as a tool for characterizing optical properties by devising an experiment to measure the average biexciton quantum yield of nanocrystal samples. This experiment allows us to measure the biexcitonic properties of underdeveloped materials and can serve as a quick and reliable characterization technique to aid in synthetic optimization. Finally, in Part III, we look to the future by highlighting several modifications of existing experiments that could reveal new and exciting insight into nanocrystals., by Andrew Paul Beyler., Ph. D.

This thesis combines investigations of parasite ecology and rhinoceros conservation biology to advance our understanding and management of the host-parasite relationship for the critically endangered black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis). My central aim was to determine the key influences on parasite abundance within black rhinoceros, investigate the effects of parasitism on black rhinoceros and how they can be measured, and to provide a balanced summary of the advantages and disadvantages of interventions to control parasites within threatened host species. Two intestinal helminth parasites were the primary focus of this study; the strongyle nematodes and an Anoplocephala sp. tapeworm. The non-invasive assessment of parasite abundance within black rhinoceros is challenging due to the rhinoceros’s elusive nature and rarity. Hence, protocols for faecal egg counts (FECs) where defecation could not be observed were tested. This included testing for the impacts of time since defecation on FECs, and whether sampling location within a bolus influenced FECs. Also, the optimum sample size needed to reliably capture the variation in parasite abundance on a population level was estimated. To identify the key influences on parasite abundance, the black rhinoceros meta-population in South Africa presented an extraordinary and fortuitous research opportunity. Translocation and reintroduction have created multiple populations from the same two source populations, providing a variety of comparable populations with the same host-parasite relationship. I applied my population-level faecal sampling and egg count protocol to collect 160 samples from 18 black rhinoceros populations over two summer sampling periods between 2010 and 2012. I test hypotheses for the influence of a variety of ecological and abiotic factors on parasite abundance. To test for the influence of individual-level host characteristics on parasite abundance, such as age and sex, I collected rectal faecal samples at t

This thesis combines investigations of parasite ecology and rhinoceros conservation biology to advance our understanding and management of the host-parasite relationship for the critically endangered black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis). My central aim was to determine the key influences on parasite abundance within black rhinoceros, investigate the effects of parasitism on black rhinoceros and how they can be measured, and to provide a balanced summary of the advantages and disadvantages of interventions to control parasites within threatened host species. Two intestinal helminth parasites were the primary focus of this study; the strongyle nematodes and an Anoplocephala sp. tapeworm. The non-invasive assessment of parasite abundance within black rhinoceros is challenging due to the rhinoceros’s elusive nature and rarity. Hence, protocols for faecal egg counts (FECs) where defecation could not be observed were tested. This included testing for the impacts of time since defecation on FECs, and whether sampling location within a bolus influenced FECs. Also, the optimum sample size needed to reliably capture the variation in parasite abundance on a population level was estimated. To identify the key influences on parasite abundance, the black rhinoceros meta-population in South Africa presented an extraordinary and fortuitous research opportunity. Translocation and reintroduction have created multiple populations from the same two source populations, providing a variety of comparable populations with the same host-parasite relationship. I applied my population-level faecal sampling and egg count protocol to collect 160 samples from 18 black rhinoceros populations over two summer sampling periods between 2010 and 2012. I test hypotheses for the influence of a variety of ecological and abiotic factors on parasite abundance. To test for the influence of individual-level host characteristics on parasite abundance, such as age and sex, I collected rectal faecal samples at t

This thesis combines investigations of parasite ecology and rhinoceros conservation biology to advance our understanding and management of the host-parasite relationship for the critically endangered black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis). My central aim was to determine the key influences on parasite abundance within black rhinoceros, investigate the effects of parasitism on black rhinoceros and how they can be measured, and to provide a balanced summary of the advantages and disadvantages of interventions to control parasites within threatened host species. Two intestinal helminth parasites were the primary focus of this study; the strongyle nematodes and an Anoplocephala sp. tapeworm. The non-invasive assessment of parasite abundance within black rhinoceros is challenging due to the rhinoceros’s elusive nature and rarity. Hence, protocols for faecal egg counts (FECs) where defecation could not be observed were tested. This included testing for the impacts of time since defecation on FECs, and whether sampling location within a bolus influenced FECs. Also, the optimum sample size needed to reliably capture the variation in parasite abundance on a population level was estimated. To identify the key influences on parasite abundance, the black rhinoceros meta-population in South Africa presented an extraordinary and fortuitous research opportunity. Translocation and reintroduction have created multiple populations from the same two source populations, providing a variety of comparable populations with the same host-parasite relationship. I applied my population-level faecal sampling and egg count protocol to collect 160 samples from 18 black rhinoceros populations over two summer sampling periods between 2010 and 2012. I test hypotheses for the influence of a variety of ecological and abiotic factors on parasite abundance. To test for the influence of individual-level host characteristics on parasite abundance, such as age and sex, I collected rectal faecal samples at t

This thesis combines investigations of parasite ecology and rhinoceros conservation biology to advance our understanding and management of the host-parasite relationship for the critically endangered black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis). My central aim was to determine the key influences on parasite abundance within black rhinoceros, investigate the effects of parasitism on black rhinoceros and how they can be measured, and to provide a balanced summary of the advantages and disadvantages of interventions to control parasites within threatened host species. Two intestinal helminth parasites were the primary focus of this study; the strongyle nematodes and an Anoplocephala sp. tapeworm. The non-invasive assessment of parasite abundance within black rhinoceros is challenging due to the rhinoceros’s elusive nature and rarity. Hence, protocols for faecal egg counts (FECs) where defecation could not be observed were tested. This included testing for the impacts of time since defecation on FECs, and whether sampling location within a bolus influenced FECs. Also, the optimum sample size needed to reliably capture the variation in parasite abundance on a population level was estimated. To identify the key influences on parasite abundance, the black rhinoceros meta-population in South Africa presented an extraordinary and fortuitous research opportunity. Translocation and reintroduction have created multiple populations from the same two source populations, providing a variety of comparable populations with the same host-parasite relationship. I applied my population-level faecal sampling and egg count protocol to collect 160 samples from 18 black rhinoceros populations over two summer sampling periods between 2010 and 2012. I test hypotheses for the influence of a variety of ecological and abiotic factors on parasite abundance. To test for the influence of individual-level host characteristics on parasite abundance, such as age and sex, I collected rectal faecal samples at t