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The Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) initiative brings together a diverse set of voices to develop data, tools, and a unique forum for coordinating transmission expansion in the Western Interconnection. In this paper we use a new tool developed in the WREZ initiative to evaluate possible renewable resource selection and transmission expansion decisions. We evaluate these decisions under a number of alternative future scenarios centered on meeting 33percent of the annual load in the Western Interconnection with new renewable resources located within WREZ-identified resource hubs. Our analysis finds that wind energy is the largest source of renewable energy procured to meet the 33percent RE target across nearly all scenarios analyzed (38-65percent). Solar energy is almost always the second largest source (14-41percent). We find several load zones where wind energy is the least cost resource under a wide range of sensitivity scenarios. Load zones in the Southwest, on the other hand, are found to switch between wind and solar, and therefore to vary transmission expansion decisions, depending on uncertainties and policies that affect the relative economics of each renewable option. Further, we find that even with total transmission expenditures of $17-34 billion these costs still represent just 10-19percent of the total delivered cost of renewable energy.

A large variety of energy-efficiency policy measures exist. Some are mandatory, some are informative, and some use financial incentives to promote diffusion of efficient equipment. From country to country, financial incentives vary considerably in scope and form, the type of framework used to implement them, and the actors that administer them. They range from rebate programs administered by utilities under an Energy-Efficiency Resource Standards (EERS) regulatory framework (California, USA) to the distribution of Eco-points rewarding customers for buying highly efficient appliances (Japan). All have the primary objective of transforming the current market to accelerate the diffusion of efficient technologies by addressing up-front cost barriers faced by consumers; in most instances, efficient technologies require a greater initial investment than conventional technologies. In this paper, we review the different market transformation measures involving the use of financial incentives in the countries belonging to the Major Economies Forum. We characterize the main types of measures, discuss their mechanisms, and provide information on program impacts to the extent that ex-ante or ex-post evaluations have been conducted. Finally, we identify best practices in financial incentive programs and opportunities for coordination between Major Economies Forum countries as envisioned under the Super Efficient Appliance Deployment (SEAD) initiative.

In an effort to create broad access to its optimization software, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), in collaboration with the University of California at Davis (UC Davis) and OSISoft, has recently developed a Software as a Service (SaaS) Model for reducing energy costs, cutting peak power demand, and reducing carbon emissions for multipurpose buildings. UC Davis currently collects and stores energy usage data from buildings on its campus. Researchers at LBNL sought to demonstrate that a SaaS application architecture could be built on top of this data system to optimize the scheduling of electricity and heat delivery in the building. The SaaS interface, known as WebOpt, consists of two major parts: a) the investment & planning and b) the operations module, which builds on the investment & planning module. The operational scheduling and load shifting optimization models within the operations module use data from load prediction and electrical grid emissions models to create an optimal operating schedule for the next week, reducing peak electricity consumption while maintaining quality of energy services. LBNL's application also provides facility managers with suggested energy infrastructure investments for achieving their energy cost and emission goals based on historical data collected with OSISoft's system. This paper describes these models as well as the SaaS architecture employed by LBNL researchers to provide asset scheduling services to UC Davis. The peak demand, emissions, and cost implications of the asset operation schedule and investments suggested by this optimization model are analyzed.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recently completed a rulemaking process in which it amended the existing energy efficiency standards for residential water heaters. A key factor in DOE?s consideration of new standards is the economic impacts on consumers. Determining such impacts requires a comparison of the additional first cost of energy efficiency design options with the savings in operating costs. This paper describes the method used to conduct the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period analysis for gas and electric storage water heaters. It presents the estimated change in LCC associated with more energy-efficient equipment, including heat pump electric water heaters and condensing gas water heaters, for a representative sample of U.S. homes. The study included a detailed accounting of installation costs for the considered design options, with a focus on approaches for accommodating the larger dimensions of more efficient water heaters. For heat pump water heaters, the study also considered airflow requirements, venting issues, and the impact of these products on the indoor environment. The results indicate that efficiency improvement relative to the baseline design reduces the LCC in the majority of homes for both gas and electric storage water heaters, and heat pump electric water heaters and condensing gas water heaters provide a lower LCC for homes with large rated volume water heaters.

Residential customers in California's Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) territory have seen several electricity rate structure changes in the past decade. A relatively simple two-tiered pricing system (charges by usage under/over baseline for the home's climate zone) was replaced in the summer of 2001 by a more complicated five-tiered system (usage below baseline and up to 30percent, 100percent, 200percent, and 300percent+ over baseline). In 2009, PG&E began the process of upgrading its residential customers to Smart Meters and laying the groundwork for time of use pricing, due to start in 2011. This paper examines the history of the tiered pricing system, discusses the problems the utility encountered with its Smart Meter roll out, and evaluates the proposed dynamic pricing incentive structures. Scenario analyses of example PG&E customer bills will also be presented. What would these residential customers pay if they were still operating under a tiered structure, and/or if they participated in peak hour reductions?

A large project is underway at Alameda County's twenty-year old 45 ha 4,000-inmate Santa Rita Jail, about 70 km east of San Francisco. Often described as a green prison, it has a considerable installed base of distributed energy resources including a seven-year old 1.2 MW PV array, a four-year old 1 MW fuel cell with heat recovery, and efficiency investments. A current US$14 M expansion will add approximately 2 MW of NaS batteries, and undetermined wind capacity and a concentrating solar thermal system. This ongoing effort by a progressive local government with considerable Federal and State support provides some excellent lessons for the struggle to lower building carbon footprint. The Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) finds true optimal combinations of equipment and operating schedules for microgrids that minimize energy bills and/or carbon emissions without 2 of 12 significant searching or rules-of-thumb prioritization, such as "efficiency first then on-site generation." The results often recommend complex systems, and sensitivities show how policy changes will affect choices. This paper reports an analysis of the historic performance of the PV system and fuel cell, describes the complex optimization applied to the battery scheduling, and shows how results will affect the jail's operational costs, energy consumption, and carbon footprint. DER-CAM is used to assess the existing and proposed DER equipment in its ability to reduce tariff charges.

Electricity demand has consistently exceeded available supply in India. While the electricity deficit varies across states, nationally it was estimated to be of the order of 12percent on peak and 11percent for electricity during 2008-09. This paper explores a demand-side focused potential for energy efficiency improvement to eliminate the electricity deficit compared to a business as usual (BAU) supply-side focused scenario. The limited availability of finance and other legal and administrative barriers have constrained the construction of new power plant capacity in India. As a result, under the BAU scenario, India continues to face an electricity deficit beyond the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan. The demand-side cost-effective potential achieved through replacement of new electricity-using products, however, is large enough to eliminate the deficit as early as 2013 and subsequently reduce the future construction of power plants and thus reduce air pollutant emissions. Moreover, energy efficiency improvements cost a fraction of the cost for new supply and can lead to a substantial increase in India's economic output or gross domestic product (GDP). Eliminating the deficit permits businesses that have experienced electricity cutbacks to restore production. We estimate the size of the cumulative production increase in terms of the contribution to GDP at a $505 billion between 2009 and 2017, the end of India's Twelfth Five Year Plan, which may be compared with India's 2007-08 GDP of $911 billion. The economic output is influenced by the size of the electricity savings and rate of penetration of energy efficient technologies, and that of self-generation equipment and inverters used by businesses faced with electricity cuts. Generation and inverters are estimated to service 23percent of these customers in 2009, which increase to 48percent by 2020. The reduction in the construction and operation of new power plants reduces the cumulative CO2 emissions by 65 Mt, and th

Correlative analysis of molecular markers with phenotypic signatures is the simplest model for hypothesis generation. In this paper, a panel of 24 breast cell lines was grown in 3D culture, their morphology was imaged through phase contrast microscopy, and computational methods were developed to segment and represent each colony at multiple dimensions. Subsequently, subpopulations from these morphological responses were identified through consensus clustering to reveal three clusters of round, grape-like, and stellate phenotypes. In some cases, cell lines with particular pathobiological phenotypes clustered together (e.g., ERBB2 amplified cell lines sharing the same morphometric properties as the grape-like phenotype). Next, associations with molecular features were realized through (i) differential analysis within each morphological cluster, and (ii) regression analysis across the entire panel of cell lines. In both cases, the dominant genes that are predictive of the morphological signatures were identified. Specifically, PPAR? has been associated with the invasive stellate morphological phenotype, which corresponds to triple-negative pathobiology. PPAR? has been validated through two supporting biological assays.

There is a multiplicity of development pathways in which low energy sector emissions are not necessarily associated with low economic growth. However, changes in development pathways can rarely be imposed from the top. On this basis, examples of energy efficiency opportunities to change development pathways toward lower emissions are presented in this paper. We review opportunities at the sectoral and macro level. The potential for action on nonclimate policies that influence energy use and emissions are presented. Examples are drawn from policies already adopted and implemented in the energy sector. The paper discusses relationships between energy efficiency policies and their synergies and tradeoffs with sustainable development and greenhouse gas emissions. It points to ways that energy efficiency could be mainstreamed into devel?opment choices.

Industry utilizes very complex systems, consisting of equipment and their human interface, which are organized to meet the production needs of the business. Effective and sustainable energy efficiency programs in an industrial setting require a systems approach to optimize the integrated whole while meeting primary business requirements. Companies that treat energy as a manageable resource and integrate their energy program into their management practices have an organizational context to continually seek opportunities for optimizing their energy use. The purpose of an energy management system standard is to provide guidance for industrial and commercial facilities to integrate energy efficiency into their management practices, including fine-tuning production processes and improving the energy efficiency of industrial systems. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has identified energy management as one of its top five priorities for standards development. The new ISO 50001 will establish an international framework for industrial, commercial, or institutional facilities, or entire companies, to manage their energy, including procurement and use. This standard is expected to achieve major, long-term increases in energy efficiency (20percent or more) in industrial, commercial, and institutional facilities and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide. This paper describes the impetus for the international standard, its purpose, scope and significance, and development progress to date. A comparative overview of existing energy management standards is provided, as well as a discussion of capacity-building needs for skilled individuals to assist organizations in adopting the standard. Finally, opportunities and challenges are presented for implementing ISO 50001 in emerging economies and developing countries.

In 2006, the Public Interest Energy Research Program (PIER) Demand Response Research Center (DRRC) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory initiated research into Automated Demand Response (OpenADR) applications in California industry. The goal is to improve electric grid reliability and lower electricity use during periods of peak demand. The purpose of this research is to begin to define the relationship among a portfolio of actions that industrial facilities can undertake relative to their electricity use. This ?electricity value chain? defines energy management and demand response (DR) at six levels of service, distinguished by the magnitude, type, and rapidity of response. One element in the electricity supply chain is OpenADR, an open-standards based communications system to send signals to customers to allow them to manage their electric demand in response to supply conditions, such as prices or reliability, through a set of standard, open communications. Initial DRRC research suggests that industrial facilities that have undertaken energy efficiency measures are probably more, not less, likely to initiate other actions within this value chain such as daily load management and demand response. Moreover, OpenADR appears to afford some facilities the opportunity to develop the supporting control structure and to "demo" potential reductions in energy use that can later be applied to either more effective load management or a permanent reduction in use via energy efficiency. Under the right conditions, some types of industrial facilities can shift or shed loads, without any, or minimal disruption to operations, to protect their energy supply reliability and to take advantage of financial incentives.1 In 2007 and 2008, 35 industrial facilities agreed to implement OpenADR, representing a total capacity of nearly 40 MW. This paper describes how integrated or centralized demand management and system-level network controls are linked to OpenADR systems. Case studies

Staging laser plasma accelerators is an efficient way of mitigating laser pump depletion in laser driven accelerators and necessary for reaching high energies with compact laser systems. The concept of staging includes coupling of additional laser energy and transporting the electron beam from one accelerating module to another. Due to laser damage threshold constraints, in-coupling laser energy with conventional optics requires distances between the accelerating modules of the order of 10m, resulting in decreased average accelerating gradient and complicated e-beam transport. In this paper we use basic scaling laws to show that the total length of future laser plasma accelerators will be determined by staging technology. We also propose using a liquid jet plasma mirror for in-coupling the laser beam and show that it has the potential to reduce distance between stages to the cm-scale.

As one of the measures to achieve the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions agreed to in the "Kyoto Protocol," an institutional scheme for determining energy efficiency standards for energy-consuming appliances, called the "Top-Runner Approach," was developed by the Japanese government. Its goal is to strengthen the legal underpinnings of various energy conservation measures. Particularly in Japan's residential sector, where energy demand has grown vigorously so far, this efficiency standard is expected to play a key role in mitigating both energy demand growth and the associated CO2 emissions. This paper presents an outlook of Japan's residential energy demand, developed by a stochastic econometric model for the purpose of analyzing the impacts of the Japan's energy efficiency standards, as well as the future stochastic behavior of income growth, demography, energy prices, and climate on the future energy demand growth to 2030. In this analysis, we attempt to explicitly take into consideration more than 30 kinds of electricity uses, heating, cooling and hot water appliances in order to comprehensively capture the progress of energy efficiency in residential energy end-use equipment. Since electricity demand, is projected to exhibit astonishing growth in Japan's residential sector due to universal increasing ownership of electric and other appliances, it is important to implement an elaborate efficiency standards policy for these appliances.

The addition of storage technologies such as flow batteries, conventional batteries, and heat storage can improve the economic as well as environmental attractiveness of on-site generation (e.g., PV, fuel cells, reciprocating engines or microturbines operating with or without CHP) and contribute to enhanced demand response. In order to examine the impact of storage technologies on demand response and carbon emissions, a microgrid's distributed energy resources (DER) adoption problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that has the minimization of annual energy costs as its objective function. By implementing this approach in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), the problem is solved for a given test year at representative customer sites, such as schools and nursing homes, to obtain not only the level of technology investment, but also the optimal hourly operating schedules. This paper focuses on analysis of storage technologies in DER optimization on a building level, with example applications for commercial buildings. Preliminary analysis indicates that storage technologies respond effectively to time-varying electricity prices, i.e., by charging batteries during periods of low electricity prices and discharging them during peak hours. The results also indicate that storage technologies significantly alter the residual load profile, which can contribute to lower carbon emissions depending on the test site, its load profile, and its adopted DER technologies.

This paper summarizes studies of carbon (C) mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach - Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) - to estimate the above parameters between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on C sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per Mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg C) the cumulative mitigation potential of 6.2 Petagram (Pg) C between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries (about 200 x 106 Mg C yr-1) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to $100 Mg C-1. About 5 Pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than $20 per Mg C. Negative cost potential indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of these options. The achievable potential is likely to be smaller, however, due to market, institutional, and sociocultural barriers that can delay or prevent the implementation of the analyzed options.

The development of third generation light sources like the Advanced Light Source (ALS) or BESSY II brought to a focus the need for high performance synchrotron optics with unprecedented tolerances for slope error and micro roughness. Proposed beam lines at Free Electron Lasers (FEL) require optical elements up to a length of one meter, characterized by a residual slope error in the range of 0.1murad (rms), and rms values of 0.1 nm for micro roughness. These optical elements must be inspected by highly accurate measuring instruments, providing a measurement uncertainty lower than the specified accuracy of the surface under test. It is essential that metrology devices in use at synchrotron laboratories be precisely characterized and calibrated to achieve this target. In this paper we discuss a proposal for a Universal Test Mirror (UTM) as a realization of a high performance calibration instrument. The instrument would provide an ideal calibration surface to replicate a redundant surface under test of redundant figure. The application of a sophisticated calibration instrument will allow the elimination of the majority of the systematic error from the error budget of an individual measurement of a particular optical element. We present the limitations of existing methods, initial UTM design considerations, possible calibration algorithms, and an estimation of the expected accuracy.

This paper presents an estimate of the potential for energy efficiency improvements in the U.S. building sector by 2030. The analysis uses the Energy Information Administration's AEO 2007 Reference Case as a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and applies percentage savings estimates by end use drawn from several prior efficiency potential studies. These prior studies include the U.S. Department of Energy's Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (CEF) study and a recent study of natural gas savings potential in New York state. For a few end uses for which savings estimates are not readily available, the LBNL study team compiled technical data to estimate savings percentages and costs of conserved energy. The analysis shows that for electricity use in buildings, approximately one-third of the BAU consumption can be saved at a cost of conserved energy of 2.7 cents/kWh (all values in 2007 dollars), while for natural gas approximately the same percentage savings is possible at a cost of between 2.5 and 6.9 $/million Btu. This cost-effective level of savings results in national annual energy bill savings in 2030 of nearly $170 billion. To achieve these savings, the cumulative capital investment needed between 2010 and 2030 is about $440 billion, which translates to a 2-1/2 year simple payback period, or savings over the life of the measures that are nearly 3.5 times larger than the investment required (i.e., a benefit-cost ratio of 3.5).

Over a decade ago, the electricity consumption associated with home electronics and other small appliances emerged onto the global energy policy landscape as one of the fastest growing residential end uses with the opportunity to deliver significant energy savings. As our knowledge of this end use matures, it is essential to step back and evaluate the degree to which energy efficiency programs have successfully realized energy savings and where savings opportunities have been missed. For the past fifteen years, we have quantified energy, utility bill, and carbon savings for US EPA?s ENERGY STAR voluntary product labeling program. In this paper, we present a unique look into the US residential program savings claimed to date for EPA?s ENERGY STAR office equipment, consumer electronics, and other small household appliances as well as EPA?s projected program savings over the next five years. We present a top-level discussion identifying program areas where EPA?s ENERGY STAR efforts have succeeded and program areas where ENERGY STAR efforts did not successfully address underlying market factors, technology issues and/or consumer behavior. We end by presenting the magnitude of ?overlooked? savings.

To support the North American Energy Working Group's Expert Group on Energy Efficiency (NAEWG-EE), USDOE commissioned the Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program (CLASP) to prepare a resource document comparing current standards, labels, and test procedure regulations in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The resulting document reached the following conclusions: Out of 24 energy-using products for which at least one of the three countries has energy efficiency regulations, three products -- refrigerators/freezers, split system central air conditioners, and room air conditioners -- have similar or identical minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) in the three countries. These same three products, as well as three-phase motors, have similar or identical test procedures throughout the region. There are 10 products with different MEPS and test procedures, but which have the short-term potential to develop common test procedures, MEPS, and/or labels. Three other noteworthy areas where possible energy efficiency initiatives have potential for harmonization are standby losses, uniform endorsement labels, and a new standard or label on windows. This paper explains these conclusions and presents the underlying comparative data.

A carbon-rich black layer, dating to ~;;12.9 ka, has been previously identified at ~;;50 Clovis-age sites across North America and appears contemporaneous with the abrupt onset of Younger Dryas (YD) cooling. The in situ bones of extinct Pleistocene megafauna, along with Clovis tool assemblages, occur below this black layer but not within or above it. Causes for the extinctions, YD cooling, and termination of Clovis culture have long been controversial. In this paper, we provide evidence for an extraterrestrial (ET) impact event at ~;;12.9 ka, which we hypothesize caused abrupt environmentalchanges that contributed to YD cooling, major ecological reorganization, broad-scale extinctions, and rapid human behavioral shifts at the end of the Clovis Period. Clovis-age sites in North American are overlain by a thin, discrete layer with varying peak abundances of (i) magnetic grains with iridium, (ii) magnetic microspherules, (iii) charcoal, (iv) soot, (v) carbon spherules, (vi) glass-like carbon containing nanodiamonds, and (vii) fullerenes with ET helium, all of which are evidence for an ET impact and associated biomass burning at ~;;12.9 ka. This layer also extends throughout at least 15 Carolina Bays, which are unique, elliptical depressions, oriented to the northwest across the Atlantic Coastal Plain. We propose that one or more large, low-density ET objects exploded over northern North America, partially destabilizing the Laurentide Ice Sheet and triggering YD cooling. The shock wave, thermal pulse, and event-related environmental effects (e.g., extensive biomass burning and food limitations) contributed to end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions and adaptive shifts among PaleoAmericans in North America.

Between 1980 and 2000, China's energy efficiency policies resulted in a decoupling of the traditionally linked relationship between energy use and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, realizing a four-fold increase in GDP with only a doubling of energy use. However, during China s transition to a market-based economy in the 1990s, many of the country's energy efficiency programs were dismantled and between 2001 and 2005 China's energy use increased significantly, growing at about the same rate as GDP. Continuation of this one-to-one ratio of energy consumption to GDP given China's stated goal of again quadrupling GDP between 2000 and 2020 will lead to significant demand for energy, most of which is coal-based. The resulting local, national, and global environmental impacts could be substantial.In 2005, realizing the significance of this situation, the Chinese government announced an ambitious goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20 percent between 2005 and 2010. One of the key initiatives for realizing this goal is the Top-1000 Energy-Consuming Enterprises program. The comprehensive energy consumption of these 1000 enterprises accounted for 33 percent of national and 47 percent of industrial energy usage in 2004. Under the Top-1000 program, 2010 energy consumption targets were announced for each enterprise. Activities to be undertaken include benchmarking, energy audits, development of energy saving action plans, information and training workshops, and annual reporting of energy consumption. This paper will describe the program in detail, including the types of enterprises included and the program activities, and will provide an analysis of the progress and lessons learned to date.

The on-site generation of electricity can offer building owners and occupiers financial benefits as well as social benefits such as reduced grid congestion, improved energy efficiency, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Combined heat and power (CHP), or cogeneration, systems make use of the waste heat from the generator for site heating needs. Real-time optimal dispatch of CHP systems is difficult to determine because of complicated electricity tariffs and uncertainty in CHP equipment availability, energy prices, and system loads. Typically, CHP systems use simple heuristic control strategies. This paper describes a method of determining optimal control in real-time and applies it to a light industrial site in San Diego, California, to examine: 1) the added benefit of optimal over heuristic controls, 2) the price elasticity of the system, and 3) the site-attributable greenhouse gas emissions, all under three different tariff structures. Results suggest that heuristic controls are adequate under the current tariff structure and relatively high electricity prices, capturing 97 percent of the value of the distributed generation system. Even more value could be captured by simply not running the CHP system during times of unusually high natural gas prices. Under hypothetical real-time pricing of electricity, heuristic controls would capture only 70 percent of the value of distributed generation.

This paper examines a California-based microgrid s decision to invest in a distributed generation (DG) unit that operates on natural gas. While the long-term natural gas generation cost is stochastic, we initially assume that the microgrid may purchase electricity at a fixed retail rate from its utility. Using the real options approach, we find natural gas generating cost thresholds that trigger DG investment. Furthermore, the consideration of operational flexibility by the microgrid accelerates DG investment, while the option to disconnect entirely from the utility is not attractive. By allowing the electricity price to be stochastic, we next determine an investment threshold boundary and find that high electricity price volatility relative to that of natural gas generating cost delays investment while simultaneously increasing the value of the investment. We conclude by using this result to find the implicit option value of the DG unit.

This paper expands on prior Berkeley Lab work on integrated simulation of building energy systems by the addition of active solar thermal collecting devices, technology options not previously considered (Siddiqui et al 2005). Collectors can be used as an alternative or additional source of hot water to heat recovery from reciprocating engines or microturbines. An example study is presented that evaluates the operation of solar assisted cooling at a large mail sorting facility in southern California with negligible heat loads and year-round cooling loads. Under current conditions solar thermal energy collection proves an unattractive option, but is a viable carbon emission control strategy.

Information has proven to be an important barrier in industrial energy efficiency improvement. Voluntary government programs aim to assist industry to improve energy efficiency by supplying information on opportunities. ENERGY STAR(R) supports the development of strong strategic corporate energy management programs, by providing energy management information tools and strategies. This paper summarizes ENERGY STAR research conducted to develop an Energy Guide for the Petroleum Refining industry. Petroleum refining in the United States is the largest in the world, providing inputs to virtually every economic sector, including the transport sector and the chemical industry. Refineries spend typically 50 percent of the cash operating costs (e.g., excluding capital costs and depreciation) on energy, making energy a major cost factor and also an important opportunity for cost reduction. The petroleum refining industry consumes about 3.1 Quads of primary energy, making it the single largest industrial energy user in the United States. Typically, refineries can economically improve energy efficiency by 20 percent. The findings suggest that given available resources and technology, there are substantial opportunities to reduce energy consumption cost-effectively in the petroleum refining industry while maintaining the quality of the products manufactured.

Product life-cycle optimization addresses the reduction of environmental burdens associated with the production, use, and end-of-life stages of a product s life cycle. In this paper, we offer an evaluation of the opportunities related to product life-cycle optimization in California for two key products: personal computers (PCs) and concrete. For each product, we present the results of an explorative case study to identify specific opportunities for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions at each stage of the product life cycle. We then offer a discussion of the practical policy options that may exist for realizing the identified GHG reduction opportunities. The case studies demonstrate that there may be significant GHG mitigation options as well as a number of policy options that could lead to life-cycle GHG emissions reductions for PCs and concrete in California.

California is the largest cement producing state in the U.S., accounting for between 10 percent and 15 percent of U.S. cement production and cement industry employment. The cement industry in California consists of 31 sites that consume large amounts of energy, annually: 1,600 GWh of electricity, 22 million therms of natural gas, 2.3 million tons of coal, 0.25 tons of coke, and smaller amounts of waste materials, including tires. The case study summarized in this paper focused on providing background information, an assessment of energy-efficiency opportunities and barriers, and program recommendations that can be used by program planners to better target products to the cement industry. The primary approach to this case study involved walk-through surveys of customer facilities and in depth interviews with customer decision makers and subsequent analysis of collected data. In addition, a basic review of the cement production process was developed, and summary cement industry energy and economic data were collected, and analyzed. The analysis of secondary data provides background information on the cement industry and identification of potential energy-efficiency opportunities. The interviews provide some understanding of the customer perspective about implementation of energy-efficiency projects.

This paper presents an overview of the modeling approach and highlights key findings of a California industrial energy efficiency potential study. In addition to providing estimates of technical and economic potential, the study examines achievable program potential under various program-funding scenarios. The focus is on electricity and natural gas savings for manufacturing in the service territories of California's investor-owned utilities (IOUs). The assessment is conducted by industry type and by end use. Both crosscutting technologies and industry-specific process measures are examined. Measure penetration into the marketplace is modeled as a function of customer awareness, measure cost effectiveness, and perceived market barriers. Data for the study comes from a variety of sources, including: utility billing records, the Energy Information Association (EIA) Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), state-sponsored avoided cost studies, energy efficiency program filings, and technology savings and cost data developed through Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The study identifies 1,706 GWh and 47 Mth (million therms) per year of achievable potential over the next twelve years under recent levels of program expenditures, accounting for 5.2 percent of industrial electricity consumption and 1.3 percent of industrial natural gas consumption. These estimates grow to 2,748 GWh and 192 Mth per year if all cost-effective and achievable opportunities are pursued. Key industrial electricity end uses, in terms of energy savings potential, include compressed air and pumping systems that combine to account for about half of the total achievable potential estimates. For natural gas, savings are concentrated in the boiler and process heating end uses, accounting for over 99 percent to total achievable potential.

Voluntary agreements for energy efficiency improvement and reduction of energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a popular policy instrument for the industrial sector in industrialized countries since the 1990s. A number of these national-level voluntary agreement programs are now being modified and strengthened, while additional countries -- including some recently industrialized and developing countries -- are adopting these type of agreements in an effort to increase the energy efficiency of their industrial sectors. Voluntary agreement programs can be roughly divided into three broad categories: 1) programs that are completely voluntary, 2) programs that use the threat of future regulations or energy/GHG emissions taxes as a motivation for participation, and 3) programs that are implemented in conjunction with an existing energy/GHG emissions tax policy or with strict regulations. A variety of government-provided incentives as well as penalties are associated with these programs. This paper reviews 23 energy efficiency or GHG emissions reduction voluntary agreement programs in 18 countries, including countries in Europe, the U.S., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) and discusses preliminary lessons learned regarding program design and effectiveness. The paper notes that such agreement programs, in which companies inventory and manage their energy use and GHG emissions to meet specific reduction targets, are an essential first step towards GHG emissions trading programs.

This paper reports on the global potential for carbon sequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenarios from 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typically seen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector was disaggregated into ten regions, four largely temperate, developed regions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; and six developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China, India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options -- long- and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestation -- were analyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Key findings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to 113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbon gain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78 percent of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value of cumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158 billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated with a decrease in deforestation.

Rapidly growing electricity demand brings into question the ability of traditional grids to expand correspondingly while providing reliable service. An alternative path is the wider application of distributed energy resource (DER) that apply combined heat and power (CHP). It can potentially shave peak loads and satiate its growing thirst for electricity demand, improve overall energy efficiency, and lower carbon and other pollutant emissions. This research investigates a method of choosing economically optimal DER, expanding on prior studies at the Berkeley Lab using the DER design optimization program, the Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM). DER-CAM finds the optimal combination of installed equipment from available DER technologies, given prevailing utility tariffs, site electrical and thermal loads, and a menu of available equipment. It provides a global optimization, albeit idealized, that shows how the site energy loads can be served at minimum cost by selection and operation of on-site generation, heat recovery, and cooling. Utility electricity and gas tariffs are key factors determining the economic benefit of a CHP installation, however often be neglected. This paper describes preliminary analysis on CHP investment climate in the U.S. and Japan. DER technologies, energy prices, and incentive measures has been investigated.

Structural Genomics (SG) projects aim to expand our structural knowledge of biological macromolecules, while lowering the average costs of structure determination. We quantitatively analyzed the novelty, cost, and impact of structures solved by SG centers, and contrast these results with traditional structural biology. The first structure from a protein family is particularly important to reveal the fold and ancient relationships to other proteins. In the last year, approximately half of such structures were solved at a SG center rather than in a traditional laboratory. Furthermore, the cost of solving a structure at the most efficient U.S. center has now dropped to one-quarter the estimated cost of solving a structure by traditional methods. However, top structural biology laboratories are much more efficientthan the average, and comparable to SG centers despite working on very challenging structures. Moreover, traditional structural biology papers are cited significantly more often, suggesting greater current impact.

This paper presents a method for evaluation of investments in small-scale wind power under uncertainty. It is assumed that the price of electricity is uncertain and that an owner of a property with wind resources has a deferrable opportunity to invest in one wind power turbine within a capacity range. The model evaluates investment in a set of projects with different capacity. It is assumed that the owner substitutes own electricity load with electricity from the wind mill and sells excess electricity back to the grid on an hourly basis. The problem for the owner is to find the price levels at which it is optimal to invest, and in which capacity to invest. The results suggests it is optimal to wait for significantly higher prices than the net present value break-even. Optimal scale and timing depend on the expected price growth rate and the uncertainty in the future prices.

This paper summarizes studies of carbon mitigation potential (MP) and costs of forestry options in seven developing countries with a focus on the role of agroforestry. A common methodological approach known as comprehensive mitigation assessment process (COMAP) was used in each study to estimate the potential and costs between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios derived from the demand for forest products and forestland for other uses such as agriculture and pasture. By using data on estimated carbon sequestration, emission avoidance, costs and benefits, the model enables one to estimate cost effectiveness indicators based on monetary benefit per t C, as well as estimates of total mitigation costs and potential when the activities are implemented at equilibrium level. The results show that about half the MP of 6.9 Gt C (an average of 223 Mt C per year) between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries could be achieved at a negative cost, and the other half at costs not exceeding $100 per t C. Negative cost indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of about half of the options. The agroforestry options analyzed bear a significant proportion of the potential at medium to low cost per t C when compared to other options. The role of agroforestry in these countries varied between 6 percent and 21 percent of the MP, though the options are much more cost effective than most due to the low wage or opportunity cost of rural labor. Agroforestry options are attractive due to the large number of people and potential area currently engaged in agriculture, but they pose unique challenges for carbon and cost accounting due to the dispersed nature of agricultural activities in the tropics, as well as specific difficulties arising from requirements for monitoring, verification, leakage assessment and the establishment of credible baselines.

U.S. industry consumes approximately 37 percent of the nation s energy to produce 24 percent of the nation s GDP. Increasingly, society is confronted with the challenge of moving toward a cleaner, more sustainable path of production and consumption, while increasing global competitiveness. Technology is essential in achieving these challenges. We report on a recent analysis of emerging energy-efficient technologies for industry, focusing on over 50 selected technologies. The technologies are characterized with respect to energy efficiency, economics and environmental performance. This paper provides an overview of the results, demonstrating that we are not running out of technologies to improve energy efficiency, economic and environmental performance, and neither will we in the future. The study shows that many of the technologies have important non-energy benefits, ranging from reduced environmental impact to improved productivity, and reduced capital costs compared to current technologies.

This paper reports the findings of a preliminary assessment of the cost effectiveness of distributed energy resources at Naval Base Ventura County (NBVC) Building 1512. This study was conducted in response to the base's request fordesign assistance to the Federal Energy Management Program. Given the current tariff structure there are two main decisions facing NBVC: whether to install distributed energy resources (DER), or whether to continue the direct access energy supply contract. At the current effective rate, given assumptions about the performance and structure of building energy loads and available generating technology characteristics, the results of this study indicate that if the building installed a 600 kW DER system with absorption cooling and heat capabilities chosen by cost minimization, the energy cost savings would be about 14 percent, or $55,000 per year. However, under current conditions, this study also suggests that significant savings could be obtained if Building 1512 changed from the direct access contract to a SCE TOU-8 (Southern California Edison time of use tariff number 8) rate without installing a DER system. At current SCE TOU-8 tariffs, the potential savings from installation of a DER system would be about 4 percent, or $15,000 per year.

In the favored progenitor scenario, Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) arise from a white dwarf accreting material from a non-degenerate companionstar. Soon after the white dwarf explodes, the ejected supernova material engulfs the companion star; two-dimensional hydrodynamicals imulations by Marietta et al. (2001) show that, in the interaction, the companion star carves out a conical hole of opening angle 30-40 degrees in the supernova ejecta. In this paper we use multi-dimensional Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations to explore the observable consequences of an ejecta-hole asymmetry. We calculate the variation of the spectrum, luminosity, and polarization with viewing angle for the aspherical supernova near maximum light. We find that the supernova looks normal from almost all viewing angles except when one looks almost directly down the hole. In the latter case, one sees into the deeper, hotter layers of ejecta. The supernova is relatively brighter and has a peculiar spectrum characterized by more highly ionized species, weaker absorption features, and lower absorption velocities. The spectrum viewed down the hole is comparable to the class of SN 1991T-like supernovae. We consider how the ejecta-hole asymmetry may explain the current spectropolarimetric observations of SNe Ia, and suggest a few observational signatures of the geometry. Finally, we discuss the variety currently seen in observed SNe Ia and how an ejecta-hole asymmetry may fit in as one of several possible sources of diversity.

This report describes Berkeley Lab's exploration of how the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) models distributed generation (DG) and presents possible approaches for improving how DG is modeled. The on-site electric generation capability has been available since the AEO2000 version of NEMS. Berkeley Lab has previously completed research on distributed energy resources (DER) adoption at individual sites and has developed a DER Customer Adoption Model called DER-CAM. Given interest in this area, Berkeley Lab set out to understand how NEMS models small-scale on-site generation to assess how adequately DG is treated in NEMS, and to propose improvements or alternatives. The goal is to determine how well NEMS models the factors influencing DG adoption and to consider alternatives to the current approach. Most small-scale DG adoption takes place in the residential and commercial modules of NEMS. Investment in DG ultimately offsets purchases of electricity, which also eliminates the losses associated with transmission and distribution (T&D). If the DG technology that is chosen is photovoltaics (PV), NEMS assumes renewable energy consumption replaces the energy input to electric generators. If the DG technology is fuel consuming, consumption of fuel in the electric utility sector is replaced by residential or commercial fuel consumption. The waste heat generated from thermal technologies can be used to offset the water heating and space heating energy uses, but there is no thermally activated cooling capability. This study consists of a review of model documentation and a paper by EIA staff, a series of sensitivity runs performed by Berkeley Lab that exercise selected DG parameters in the AEO2002 version of NEMS, and a scoping effort of possible enhancements and alternatives to NEMS current DG capabilities. In general, the treatment of DG in NEMS is rudimentary. The penetration of DG is determined by an economic cash-flow analysis that determines adoption based on the n

Predicting the amount of water that may seep into waste emplacement drifts is important for assessing the performance of the proposed geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The repository would be located in thick, partially saturated fractured tuff that will be heated to above-boiling temperatures as a result of heat generation from the decay of nuclear waste. Since infiltrating water will be subject to vigorous boiling for a significant time period, the superheated rock zone (i.e., rock temperature above the boiling point of water) can form an effective vaporization barrier that reduces the possibility of water arrival at emplacement drifts. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of episodic preferential flow events that penetrate the hot fractured rock, evaluate the impact of such flow behavior on the effectiveness of the vaporization barrier, and discuss the implications for the performance assessment of the repository. A semi-analytical solution is utilized to determine the complex flow processes in the hot rock environment. The solution is applied at several discrete times after emplacement, covering the time period of strongly elevated temperatures at Yucca Mountain.

China faces a significant challenge in the years ahead to continue to provide essential materials and products for a rapidly-growing economy while addressing pressing environmental concerns. China's industrial sector is heavily dependent on the country's abundant, yet polluting, coal resources. While tremendous energy conservation and environmental protection achievements were realized in the industrial sector in the past, there remains a great gulf between the China's level of energy efficiency and that of the advanced countries of the world. Internationally, significant energy efficiency improvement in the industrial sector has been realized in a number of countries using an innovative policy mechanism called Voluntary Agreements. This paper describes international experience with Voluntary Agreements in the industrial sector as well as the development of a pilot program to test the use of such agreements with two steel mills in Shandong Province, China.

This paper describes international experience with the use of Voluntary Agreements for increasing industrial sector energy-efficiency, drawing lessons learned regarding the essential elements of the more successful programs. The paper focuses on a pilot project for implementation of a Voluntary Agreement with two steel mills in Shandong Province that was developed through international collaboration with experts in China, the Netherlands, and the U.S. Designing the pilot project involved development of approaches for energy-efficiency potential assessments for the steel mills, target-setting to establish the Voluntary Agreement energy-efficiency goals, preparing energy-efficiency plans for implementation of energy-saving technologies and measures, and monitoring and evaluating the project's energy savings.

In prior studies of the current Shuttle Spacesuit (SSA), where basic fabric lay-ups were tested for shielding capabilities, it was found that the fabric portions of the suit give far less protection than previously estimated due to porosity and non-uniformity of fabric and LCVG components. In addition, overall material transmission properties were less than optimum. A number of alternate approaches are being tested to provide more uniform coverage and to use more efficient materials. We will discuss in this paper, recent testing of new material lay-ups/configurations for possible use in future spacesuit designs.

The California Climate Action Registry, which will begin operation in Fall 2002, is a voluntary registry for California businesses and organizations to record annual greenhouse gas emissions. Reporting of emissions in the Registry by a participant involves documentation of both "direct" emissions from sources that are under the entity's control and "indirect" emissions controlled by others. Electricity generated by an off-site power source is considered to be an indirect emission and must be included in the entity's report. Published electricity emissions factors for the State of California vary considerably due to differences in whether utility-owned out-of-state generation, non-utility generation, and electricity imports from other states are included. This paper describes the development of three methods for estimating electricity emissions factors for calculating the combined net carbon dioxide emissions from all generating facilities that provide electricity to Californians. We find that use of a statewide average electricity emissions factor could drastically under- or over-estimate an entity's emissions due to the differences in generating resources among the utility service areas and seasonal variations. In addition, differentiating between marginal and average emissions is essential to accurately estimate the carbon dioxide savings from reducing electricity use. Results of this work will be taken into consideration by the Registry when finalizing its guidance for use of electricity emissions factors in calculating an entity's greenhouse gas emissions.

The crisis atmosphere surrounding electricity availability in California during the summer of 2001 produced two distinct phenomena in commercial energy consumption decision-making: desires to guarantee energy availability while blackouts were still widely anticipated, and desires to avoid or mitigate significant price increases when higher commercial electricity tariffs took effect. The climate of increased consideration of these factors seems to have led, in some cases, to greater willingness on the part of business decision-makers to consider highly innovative technologies. This paper examines three case studies of innovative technology adoption: retrofit of time-and-temperature signs on an office building; installation of fuel cells to supply power, heating, and cooling to the same building; and installation of a gas-fired heat pump at a microbrewery. We examine the decision process that led to adoption of these technologies. In each case, specific constraints had made more conventional energy-efficient technologies inapplicable. We examine how these barriers to technology adoption developed over time, how the California energy decision-making climate combined with the characteristics of these innovative technologies to overcome the barriers, and what the implications of hurdling these barriers are for future energy decisions within the firms.

The restructuring of regional electricity markets in the U.S. has been accompanied by numerous problems, including generation capacity shortages, transmission congestion, wholesale price volatility, and reduced system reliability. These problems have created significant new opportunities for technologies and business approaches that allow load serving entities and other aggregators, to control and manage the load patterns of their wholesale or retail end-users. These technologies and business approaches for manipulating end-user load shapes are known as Load Management or, more recently, Demand Responsive programs. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) is conducting case studies on innovative demand responsive programs and presents preliminary results for five case studies in this paper. These case studies illustrate the diversity of market participants and range of technologies and business approaches and focus on key program elements such as target markets, market segmentation and participation results; pricing scheme; dispatch and coordination; measurement, verification, and settlement; and operational results where available.

A variety of insertion devices (IDs), wigglers and undulators, linearly or elliptically polarized,are widely used as high brightness radiation sources at the modern light source rings. Long and high-field wigglers have also been proposed as the main source of radiation damping at next generation damping rings. As a result, it becomes increasingly important to understand the impact of IDs on the charged particle dynamics in the storage ring. In this paper, we report our recent development of a general explicit symplectic model for IDs with the paraxial ray approximation. High-order explicit symplectic integrators are developed to study real-world insertion devices with a number of wiggler harmonics and arbitrary polarizations.

The Neutrino Factory and Muon Collider Collaboration (MC) comprises about 140 U.S. and non-U.S. accelerator and particle physicists. The MC is carrying out an R & D program aimed at validating the critical design concepts required for the construction of such machines. We are committed to encouraging international cooperation and coordination of the R & D effort. Main activities of the MC include a Targetry program, a MUCOOL program, a component development program, and a theory and simulation effort. Moreover, the MC has participated in several feasibility studies for a complete Neutrino Factory facility, with the aim of identifying any additional R & D activities needed to prepare a Zeroth-order Design Report (ZDR) in about two years and a Conceptual Design report (CDR) about two years thereafter. In this paper, the R & D goals in each area will be indicated, and the present status and future plans of the R & D program will be described.