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VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) radiance data obtained over the continental United States on July 20, 1981 are used to evaluate a variety of VAS retrieval procedures and parameters in the qualitative analysis and forecasting of severe weather events. The particular case analyzed contains two significantly different mesoscale convective events in the central plains. Retrievals of temperature, dewpoint temperature, equivalent potential temperature, total column precipitable water, and lifted index are shown to be physically consistent in space and time and to compare well with available radiosonde data. The analysis of the VAS retrievals identified significant spatial gradients and temporal changes in the thermal and moisture fields, including times and locations between radiosonde observations.

The development of narrow updrafts or jetlike features in the vertical motion field (VMF) over the leading edge of a surface frontal zone is examined on the basis of model simulations, summarizing and clarifying the results presented by Keyser and Anthes (1982) and responding to critical remarks by Mak and Bannon (1984). Typical velocity and potential-temperature cross sections are shown, and it is concluded that the inclusion of generally parameterized planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) physics in the model has a significant effect on the VMF, suggesting that frictional processes alone (without latent heating) can explain the formation of jetlike frontal updrafts. In a reply by Mak and Bannon it is argued that the increased strength of the VMF in models including PBL physics is not significant, whereas other models show that the VMF can be significantly strengthened and narrowed by condensational heating alone.

In the present equations for the temporal rates of change of the magnitudes of potential temperature and absolute momentum vector gradients that are projected onto vertical planes transverse to straight frontal zones, the terms involving the transverse ageostrophic circulation are of the same mathematical form, and in a kinematic sense are also analogous to, the divergence and deformation terms that involve the horizontal wind field in Pettersen's (1936) classic equation for frontogenesis in the potential temperature field. The proposed frontogenesis equation form for the magnitude of the potential temperature gradient in the transverse plane is illustrated with the results of two simulations from an idealized, two-dimensional primitive equation model in which upper level frontogenesis proceeds by very different mechanisms.

The development of structural models of upper-level frontal systems from the application of upper-air data to analyses utilizing radiosonde and aircraft observations is reviewed. The effects of turbulent processes and baroclinic waves on frontal structures and dynamics are examined. The use of the Sawyer-Eliassen (1956) equation for calculating the geostrophic, vertical circulations assosicated with frontal zones is described. The formation of upper-level fronts in two-dimensional flows and in three-dimensional baroclinic waves is studied and examples are provided. Future observational, diagnostic, and theoretical investigations on upper-level frontal zones are discussed.

A two-dimensional primitive equation frontogenesis model is applied to the identification of dynamical mechanisms which contribute to transverse ageostrophic circulation in warm and cold advection situations. Attention is focused on conditions conducive to significant alongfront ageostrophic flow with divergence confined to the transverse plane. The circulation is partitioned as a function of forcing mechanisms accompanied by confluence, horizontal shear and the alongfront component of the ageostrophic wind. A series of diagnostic equations is defined for the transverse geostrophic circulation and instantaneous contribution from each partitioned component of the circulation are quantified. In the cold advection case, results are obtained which are consistent with positive feedback between the subsidence pattern and forcing by horizontal shear.

A two-dimensional primitive equation model of frontogenesis is presented. The model treats confluence and horizontal shear in combination. The structure and evolution of model frontal zones forced by confluence are described for a control case featuring a zero alongfront thermal gradient and positive and negative thermal gradients, facing downstream. A comparison is made with Miller's (1948) equation for the zero gradient situation to illustrate the significance of horizontal and vertical motions for the structure of the upper level frontal zone. Finally, the effects of ageostrophic circulations on the evolutionary and structural differences of frontal formations are studied.

The Presidents' Day cyclone of 18-19 February, 1979 is analyzed based on conventional radiosonde data, infrared and visible satellite imagery, water vapor images and ozone measurement. The well-known synoptic-scale characteristics of the PJ-trough system are described, and evidence for the development of the tropopause fold are presented. Processes contributing to the formation of the fold are discussed in terms of an evaluation of the Sawyer-Eliassen circulation equation and a diagnostic evaluation of the ageostrophic winds and vertical motion near the polar jet streak. The documentation of stratospheric extrusions and their possible role in cyclogenesis is reviewed, and Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics are used to establish a connection between the tropopause fold associated with the polar jet streak and rapid cyclogenesis along the East Coast. Conservation of potential vorticity expressed in isentropic coordinates is used as a constraint from which to view cyclogenesis.

Higher temporal resolution data from NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment (April 24-25, 1975) are used to study the role of diabatic heating within the convective region in altering the ageostrophic mass circulation in the entrance region of the jet streak. The modifying effect this diabatic heating in the mesoscale storm exerts on the synoptic-scale environmental flow through dynamical mechanisms which link the mass circulation of these two scales is examined. The effect of diabatic heating on the ageostrophic motion within the thermally direct circulation of the jet streak and the mesoscale convective complexes is investigated. Diabatic modes of ageostrophic motion that intensify the upper tropospheric jet streak downstream are identified.

This paper describes the effects of condensation and evaporation on mesoscale frontal circulations in a two-dimensional numerical model. Utilizing an explicit scheme for the prediction of water vapor, cloud water and rainwater, the model is used to investigate the interactions between convection and the larger-scale environment. The model results are qualitatively compared with results of theoretical and observational studies, including those from the recent Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiment-Atmospheric Variability Experiment (SESAME-AVE). Three major differences are observed in a comparison of the moist and dry simulations: (1) The speed of the upper- and lower-level jets was significantly higher in the moist case, (2) The intensity of the ageostrophic circulations in the moist simulation was much stronger, (3) The vertical velocity field in the moist case was characterized by a banded structure not present in the dry case.

The nature of the frontogenetically forced transverse ageostrophic circulations connected with elevated mixed layer structure is investigated as a first step toward diagnosing the complex vertical circulation patterns occurring in the vicinity of elevated mixed layers within a severe storm environment. The Sawyer-Eliassen ageostrophic circulation equation is reviewed and applied to the elevated mixed layer detected in the SESAME IV data set at 2100 GMT of May 9, 1979. The results of the ageostrophic circulation diagnosis are confirmed and refined by considering an analytic specification for the elevated mixed layer structure.

Infrared and visible imagery from VAS are used to delineate mid- and lower-tropospheric moisture fields for a variety of severe storm cases in the southern and central United States. The ability of sequences of images to isolate areas of large negative vertical moisture gradients and apparent convective instability prior to the onset of convective storms is assessed. A variety of image combination procedures are used to deduce the stability fields which are then compared with the available radiosonde data. The results for several severe storm cases indicate that VAS can detect mid- and low-level mesoscale water vapor fields as distinct radiometric signals. The VAS imagery shows a strong tendency for thunderstorms to develop along the edges of bands of midlevel dryness as they overtake either preexisting or developing low-level moisture maxima. Image sequences depict the speed with which deep moist and dry layers can develop and move.

The surface and satellite imagery data from the cyclone of February 18-19, 1979 are analyzed. Operational radiosonde data are utilized to study the tropopause fold associated with the polar jet streak. Patterns of vertical motion compatible with the tropopause fold are calculated by the diagnostic ageostrophic circulation equation of Sawyer (1956) and Eliassen (1962); the verification of the calculated patterns is described. The relationship between the stratospheric extrusion and the folded tropopause is determined by examining the potential vorticity and ozone concentrations. The influence of the stratospheric extrusion within the folded tropopause on the development of the cyclone is investigated by analyzing the potential vorticity, static stability, and absolute vorticity from the Eulerian and Lagrangian perspective.

Wind field forecasts, based on data from the Visible Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) instrument on board the most recent GOES satellite, are described. The forecasts were used to generate a series of water vapor images for the Central U.S. according to an isentropic prediction scheme. The ability of VAS imagery to detect regions of mesoscale convective instability was contrasted with data from a 9-12 hr advective forecast and the results are discussed. It is shown that the VAS imagery was free from masking by convective outflows and lends itself to repeated applications for updating throughout the day. The incorporation of surface data into the VAS forecast is recommended in order to identify areas of persistent moisture convergence. Some examples of the VAS imagery are provided.

The Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) is a twelve channel imaging radiometer on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). It is pointed out that the instrument is designed to monitor the evolution of tropospheric temperature and moisture fields at mesoscale resolution. Since the numerical qualities of VAS soundings affect their usefulness, a quantitative verification of the absolute and relative accuracy of VAS soundings appears highly desirable. The present investigation is concerned with an objective verification for two VAS case studies. Absolute accuray is measured by comparing the VAS retrievals to the radiosonde values at the network sites. Absolute temperature accuracy is found to be + or - 2 C below 500 mb, while absolute dewpoint accuracy is + or - 2 to + or - 3 C below 850 mb.

The utility of combining visible and various infrared images from the VAS to produce a forecasting tool, that can be available on a near real time basis, to predict severe weather development is shown. Areas where dry air in the midtroposphere overlays substantial moisture at low levels are used to diagnose mesoscale regions that have the potential for being convectively unstable before the onset of severe convection. Specifically, 6.7 micron water vapor imagery, used for isolating regions of substantial midlevel dryness, are combined with images of low level clouds or with split-window low level moisture images to delineate regions that have the potential for convective instability. In areas where scattered low level clouds are present, computer generated, color image combinations are used to isolate those warm, low level clouds that are in potential convectively unstable environments from clouds that exist under a deeply moist atmosphere. In clear regions, the split window technique is used for delineating areas of substantial boundary layer moisture. These images are again computer overlayed by the midlevel dryness to produce a color coded image of potential convective instability.

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

A major advance in geostationary satellite observations occurred recently with the inclusion of an experimental instrument aboard the latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). This instrument, called the Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Atmospheric Sounder (VAS), permits simultaneous observations of the atmosphere in up to 12 infrared channels, in addition to the visible image. In the present investigation, particular emphasis is placed on the ability of VAS imagery and derived soundings to delineate isolated, meso-scale regions of convective instability. The results of the investigation point to the ability of the VAS instrument to delineate meteorologically meaningful patterns of low-level moisture and mid-level dryness and to the utility of the image overlay procedure for isolating, in real time, regions of convective potential, at time and space scales unresolvable using radiosonde data alone.

Mixed-layer models have been used to simulate low-level flows under a variety of situations, including flow over complex terrain and in the vicinity of coastal zones. The advantage of mixed-layer models compared to multilevel models is their simplicity and minimal computational requirements. A disadvantage is that the atmosphere above the mixed layer is not modeled explicitly and approximations pertaining to this layer become necessary. This paper examines five approximations for treating this upper layer for a simple sea-breeze circulation. Approximating the flow immediately above the mixed-layer height h by the mixed-layer velocity and using this velocity to advect potential temperature above h gives a better simulation of the sea breeze than the approximation used by Anthes et al. (1980), which neglected horizontal advection at this level.

Imagery available with the Goes satellite visible-IR spin-scan radiometer (VISSR) atmospheric sounders (VAS) are examined in terms of mid- and low-tropospheric moisture sensing and mesoscale soundings. The VAS can be operated in a Dwell Sounding mode (DS) involving preprogrammed scanning of a specific area using any number of combinations of 12 channels between 4-15 microns. A second, multi-spectral imaging mode (MSI) comprises operation of two IR channels simultaneously when time constraints are in effect. Case studies are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of VAS imagery for characterizing mesoscale moisture conditions when identifying severe storms. The moisture patterns of the upper and lower troposphere are made visible, and a 6.7 micron channel image can be overlaid on a low level moisture field to delineate fields of potential instability.

Interaction between the mass circulation within a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) and a direct mass circulation in the entrance region of an upper tropospheric polar jet streak was examined within the isentropic structure to investigate mechanisms responsible for linking these two scales of motion. The results establish that latent heating in the MCC modifies the direct mass circulation in the jet streak entrance region through the diabatically induced components of ageostrophic motion analyzed within isentropic coordinates. Within the strong mesoscale mass circulation of each MCC, strong horizontal mass flux convergence into the MCC at low levels is balanced by strong horizontal mass flux divergence away from the convergence at upper levels. Locations of large diabatic heating rates correspond well to the MCC position for each case; diabatic heating forces the upward vertical branch for the mesoscale mass circulation.