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The goal of this study is in improvement of the short-term prediction of the polar motion in the context of state-space modeling suitable for the Kalman filter operations, such as the Kalman Earth Orientation Filter (KEOF) at Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Accurate analysis of precision ranges to the Moon have provided several tests of gravitational theory: the equivalence principle, geodetic precession, PPN parameters beta and gamma, and the constancy of the gravitational constant G. Other possible tests include the inverse square law at 20,000 km length scales and the PPN parameter 1. The uncertainties of these tests have decreased as data accuracies have improved and data time span has lengthened. We are exploring the modeling improvements necessary to proceed from cm to mm range accuracies. Looking to future exploration, what characteristics are desired for the next generation of ranging devices, what fundamental questions can be investigated, and what are the challenges for modeling and data analysis?

Global warming, by definition, changes the atmospheric temperature field. This temperature change is not expected to be uniform, either geographically, or with height in the atmosphere. By the thermal wind equation. changes in the pole-to-equator temperature gradient will cause changes in the atmospheric zonal winds. Numerous previous studies have shown that observed length-of-day (LOD) variations on time scales of a few days to a few years are largely caused by atmospheric zonal wind fluctuations. In particular, seasonal variations in LOD have been previously shown to be dominantly caused by seasonal variations in the atmospheric zonal winds. Here, observed changes in the strength of seasonal LOD and wind-driven atmospheric angular momentum signals during 1962 to 2000 are analyzed and shown to be significantly correlated with each other and with the Southern Oscillation Index.

The oceans have a major impact on global geophysical processes of the Earth. Non-tidal changes in oceanic currents and ocean-bottom pressure have been shown to be a major source of polar motion excitation and also measurably change the length of the day. The changing mass distribution of the oceans causes the Earth's gravitational field to change and causes the center-of-mass of the oceans to change which in turn causes the center-of-mass of the solid Earth to change. The changing mass distribution of the oceans also changes the load on the oceanic crust, thereby affecting both the vertical and horizontal position of observing stations located near the oceans. Recognizing the important role that non-tidal oceanic processes play in Earth rotation dynamics and terrestrial reference frame definition, the International Earth Rotation Service has recently created a Special Bureau for the Oceans in order to facilitate research into these and other solid Earth geophysical processes affected by the oceans.

Uncertainty over the response of the atmospheric hydrological cycle (particularly the distribution of water vapor and cloudiness) to anthropogenic forcing is a primary source of doubt in current estimates of global climate sensitivity, which raises severe difficulties in evaluating its likely societal impact. Fortunately, a variety of advanced techniques and sensors are beginning to shed new light on the atmospheric hydrological cycle. One of the most promising makes use of the sensitivity of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to the thermodynamic state, and in particular the water vapor content, of the atmosphere through which the radio signals propagate. Our strategy to derive the maximum benefit for hydrological studies from the rapidly increasing GPS data stream will proceed in three stages: (1) systematically analyze and archive quality-controlled retrievals using state-of-the-art techniques; (2) employ both currently available and innovative assimilation procedures to incorporate these determinations into advanced regional and global atmospheric models and assess their effects; and (3) apply the results to investigate selected scientific issues of relevance to regional and global hydrological studies. An archive of GPS-based estimation of total zenith delay (TZD) data and water vapor where applicable has been established with expanded automated quality control. The accuracy of the GPS estimates is being monitored; the investigation of systematic errors is ongoing using comparisons with water vapor radiometers. Meteorological packages have been implemented. The accuracy and utilization of the TZD estimates has been improved by implementing a troposphere gradient model. GPS-based gradients have been validated as real atmospheric moisture gradients, establishing a link between the estimated gradients and the passage of weather fronts. We have developed a generalized ray tracing inversion scheme that can be used to analyze occultation data acquired from space- or land-based receivers. The National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (version MM5) has been adapted for Southern California, and assimilation studies are underway. Additional information is contained in the original.

Torsional oscillations of the Earth's liquid metallic outer core are investigated by diving the core into twenty imaginary e1qui-volume annuli coaxial with the axis of ratation of the Earth and determining temproal fluctuations in the axial component of angular memonetum of each annulus under the assumption of iso-rotation on cylindrical surfaces.

An earlier study established the existence of globally coherent interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In this paper, we pursue the origin and the structure of these fluctuations using an ensemble of experiments generated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, medium range forecast model version 9. In the control experiments, where the observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as the lower boundary conditions, the model captures the characteristic V-like structure in time-latitude plots of zonally averaged AAM, while experiments with climatological SSTs and those with either perpetual warm or cold ENSO conditions superimposed on the climatological SSTs failed to reproduce this structure. The numerical results indicate that these AAM structures are related to SST variations associated with transitions between different phases of the ENSO cycle and have both propagating and standing components. The largest zonal wind contribution from the levels studied (850, 500, and 200 hPa) is at 200 hPa, where the tropical convective outflow is the strongest. Composites of zonal wind and geopotential height show a clear relationship between the stages of the global AAM oscillation and the ENSO cycle. The strong similarity between the simulated and observed AAM series attests to the model's ability to realistically simulate the interannual response of the atmosphere to ENSO SST anomalies.

Conservation of angular momentum dictates that as the wind-driven axial atmospheric angular momentum changes, so will the length-of-day (LOD). In particular, as the strength of the seasonal zonal winds change, so should the strength of the seasonal LOD signals. Here, observed changes in the strengths of the annual and semiannual LOD signals during 1963-1991 are analyzed and shown to be both significantly correlated (at the 99% significance level) with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and to exhibit trends of comparable magnitude but opposite signs. This reported correlation between the SOI and changes in the amplitude of the seasonal LOD signals demonstrates a linkage between seasonal LOD (and hence seasonal zonal wind) variability and the El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Furthermore, this study suggests that observed variations in the amplitudes of the seasonal LOD signals can be used to study changes in the strengths of the seasonal atmospheric zonal winds on interannual to decadal and longer time scales.

This report highlights the goals, program of activities and accomplishments for IUGG/IAG SSG 5-143. Progress has been made on all fronts; main accomplishments include: (1) three major campaigns to measure rapid Earth orientation variations; (2) improvements in measurements including the increase in the frequency of the archived atmospheric angular momentum and the calculations of atmospheric torque; and (3) the encouragement of cooperative multi-disciplinary studies and organization of several scientific meetings.

ct given. This paper is a report given by an ad hoc working group on global climate change.

None given. Paper gives final report of the IAG ad hoc working group on global change. They made three main recommendations to the group: 1. the post of and IAG liaison or representative to the IGBP should be established. 2. A new core program,.

None given. Covers measurements of the polar ice sheet and resulting sea level changes.

The study of the Earth's rotation in space (encompassing Universal Time (UT1), length of day, polar motion, and the phenomena of precession and nutation) addresses the complex nature of Earth orientation changes, the mechanisms of excitation of these changes and their geophysical implications in a broad variety of areas. In the absence of internal sources of energy or interactions with astronomical objects, the Earth would move as a rigid body with its various parts (the crust, mantle, inner and outer cores, atmosphere and oceans) rotating together at a constant fixed rate. In reality, the world is considerably more complicated, as is schematically illustrated. The rotation rate of the Earth's crust is not constant, but exhibits complicated fluctuations in speed amounting to several parts in 10(exp 8) [corresponding to a variation of several milliseconds (ms) in the Length Of the Day (LOD) and about one part in 10(exp 6) in the orientation of the rotation axis relative to the solid Earth's axis of figure (polar motion). These changes occur over a broad spectrum of time scales, ranging from hours to centuries and longer, reflecting the fact that they are produced by a wide variety of geophysical and astronomical processes. Geodetic observations of Earth rotation changes thus provide insights into the geophysical processes illustrated, which are often difficult to obtain by other means. In addition, these measurements are required for engineering purposes. Theoretical studies of Earth rotation variations are based on the application of Euler's dynamical equations to the problem of finding the response of slightly deformable solid Earth to variety of surface and internal stresses.

Report presents analysis of data from 3-week worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking experiment conducted from January 22 through February 14, 1991. Focus of analysis upon detection and interpretation of subdaily variations in rate of rotation of earth.

Report presents study of fluctuations in rotation of Earth, focusing on irregular intraseasonal oscillations in length of day (LOD) and atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) with periods varying from 40 to 50 days. Study draws upon and extends results of prior research.

Data from a worldwide Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking experiment have been used to determine variations in earth rotation (UT1-UTC) over a time period of three weeks. Kalman filtering and smoothing enabled changes in UT1-UTC over intervals of 2 to 24 hrs to be detected with the GPS data. Internal consistency checks and comparisons with other solutions from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and satellite laser ranging (SLR) indicate that the GPS UT1-UTC estimates are accurate to about 2 cm. Comparison of GPS-estimated variations in UT1-UTC with 2-hr time resolution over 4 days with predicted variations computed from diurnal and semidiurnal oceanic tidal contributions strongly suggests that the observed periodic sub-daily variations of about 0.1 msec are largely of tidal origin.

Recent improvements in geodetic data and practical meteorology have advanced research on fluctuations in the earth's rotation. The interpretation of these fluctuations is inextricably linked with studies of the dynamics of the earth-moon system and dynamical processes in the liquid metallic core of the earth (where the geomagnetic field originates), other parts of the earth's interior, and the hydrosphere and atmosphere. Fluctuations in the length of the day occurring on decadal time scales have implications for the topographay of the core-mantle boundary and the electrical, magnetic, ande other properties of the core and lower mantle. Investigations of more rapid fluctuations bear on meteorological studies of interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variations in the general circulation of the atmosphere and the response of the oceans to such variations.

Objectives and requirements for Earth rotation and reference frame studies in the 1990s are discussed. The objectives are to observe and understand interactions of air and water with the rotational dynamics of the Earth, the effects of the Earth's crust and mantle on the dynamics and excitation of Earth rotation variations over time scales of hours to centuries, and the effects of the Earth's core on the rotational dynamics and the excitation of Earth rotation variations over time scales of a year or longer. Another objective is to establish, refine and maintain terrestrial and celestrial reference frames. Requirements include improvements in observations and analysis, improvements in celestial and terrestrial reference frames and reference frame connections, and improved observations of crustal motion and mass redistribution on the Earth.

The main findings of a study of earth rotation changes on the longer interannual and decade range of time scales are summarized. The earth rotation data provide important constraints on models of the internal structure and dynamics of the core and lower mantle. Torques at the core-mantle interface are due to time varying fluid motions in the core. A torque of about 0.2 Hadley units is found in the axial component during the 1980 period.

Forecasts of zonal wind fields produced by the medium-range forecast (MRF) model of the National Meteorological Center are used to create predictions of the atmosphere's angular momentum at lead times of 1-10 days. Based on momentum forecasts archived for the period December 1985-November 1986, it is found that, on average, the MRF exhibits positive skill relative to persistence-based forecasts at all lead times. Over the entire one-year study period, the improvement over persistence exceeds 20 percent for 2-6 day forecasts and remains as large as 10 percent even for 10-day forecasts. On the other hand, skill scores for the MRF momentum predictions vary considerably from month to month, and for a sizable fraction of the study period, the MRF is less skillful than persistence.