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Microalgae are considered an efficient accumulator and promising source of Se for feed additive purposes. This study aimed at investigating, for the first time, the effect of phosphorus limitation on Se accumulation and uptake efficiency in N.oceanica. A range of phosphorus concentrations (0-2470 µM) were tested in either the presence or absence of sodium selenite (0, 5, 30 µM). Se accumulation was increased up to 16-fold and Se uptake efficiency was increased up to 3.6-fold under phosphorus growth-limiting concentrations. N.oceanica was then cultivated in a 1.8L flat-panel photobioreactor in batch operation under two phosphorus growth-limiting concentrations (250 and 750 µM) where the accumulation of Se in the microalgal biomass, as well as its presence in the spent medium were analysed. This study is the first to investigate the effect of phosphorus limitation for increasing Se accumulation in microalgae, and to prevent the release of Se in wastewater., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

With screening the natural course of disease should be altered to reduce mortality from that disease. Screening offers very little benefit but has many disadvantages like false-positives, overdiagnosis and psychological distress. The advocates of screening overestimate the importance of the disease and the effects of screening but neglect the disadvantages. But also potential participants and medical doctors overestimate the effects of screening. Although considered important the still valuable criteria by Wilson and Jungner are neglected by researchers and committees that approve screening. Even in the situation that doctors disapprove screening healthy people are willing to undergo body-scans although nobody knows how to deal with the many abnormalities that are detected. Screening programmes should be evaluated against other interventions and not simply by making models with a lot of unproven assumptions. And most of all the potential participants have to informed about the potential disadvantages and the small effects on health.

Objectives: To compare the validity and robustness of five methods for handling missing characteristics when using cardiovascular disease risk prediction models for individual patients in a real-world clinical setting., Study Design and Setting: The performance of the missing data methods was assessed using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n = 419,533) with external validation using the Scottish Care Information - diabetes database (n = 226,953). Five methods for handling missing data were compared. Two methods using submodels for each combination of available data, two imputation methods: conditional imputation and median imputation, and one alternative modeling method, called the naïve approach, based on hazard ratios and populations statistics of known risk factors only. The validity was compared using calibration plots and c-statistics., Results: C-statistics were similar across methods in both development and validation data sets, that is, 0.82 (95% CI 0.82-0.83) in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry and 0.74 (95% CI 0.74-0.75) in Scottish Care Information-diabetes database. Differences were only observed after random introduction of missing data in the most important predictor variable (i.e., age)., Conclusion: Validity and robustness of median imputation was not dissimilar to more complex methods for handling missing values, provided that the most important predictor variables, such as age, are not missing., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background For translating an overall trial result into an individual patient's expected absolute treatment effect, differences in relative treatment effect between patients need to be taken into account. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether relative treatment effects of medication in 2 large contemporary trials are influenced by multivariable baseline risk of an individual patient. Methods and Results In 9361 patients from SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), risk of major adverse cardiovascular events was assessed using a newly derived risk model. In 18 133 patients from the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy) trial, risk of stroke or systemic embolism and major bleeding was assessed using the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field-Atrial Fibrillation risk model. Heterogeneity of trial treatment effect was assessed using Cox models of trial allocation, model linear predictor, and their interaction. There was no significant interaction between baseline risk and relative treatment effect from intensive blood pressure lowering in SPRINT ( P =0.92) or from dabigatran compared with warfarin for stroke or systemic embolism in the RE-LY trial ( P =0.71). There was significant interaction between baseline risk and treatment effect from dabigatran versus warfarin in the RE-LY trial ( P <0.001) for major bleeding. Quartile-specific hazard ratios for bleeding ranged from 0.40 (95% CI, 0.26-0.61) to 1.04 (95% CI, 0.83-1.03) for dabigatran, 110 mg, and from 0.61 (95% CI, 0.42-0.88) to 1.20 (95% CI, 0.97-1.50) for dabigatran, 150 mg, compared with warfarin. Conclusions Effect modification of relative treatment effect by individual baseline event risk should be assessed systematically in randomized clinical trials using multivariate risk prediction, not only in terms of treatment efficacy but also for important treatment harms, as a prespecified analysis. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01206062.

Background: Type 2 diabetes is a condition associated with a state of low-grade inflammation caused by adipose tissue dysfunction and insulin resistance. High sensitive-CRP (hs-CRP) is a marker for systemic low-grade inflammation and higher plasma levels have been associated with cardiovascular events in various populations. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the relation between hs-CRP and incident cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in high-risk type 2 diabetes patients., Methods: Prospective cohort study of 1679 type 2 diabetes patients included in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART). Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the risk of hs-CRP on cardiovascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular mortality) and all-cause mortality. Hs-CRP was log-transformed for continuous analyses. Findings were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, current smoking and alcohol use, non-HDL-cholesterol and micro-albuminuria., Results: 307 new cardiovascular events and 343 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 7.8 years (IQR 4.2-11.1). A one unit increase in log(hs-CRP) was related to an increased vascular- and all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.01-1.46 and HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.10-1.45 respectively). No relation was found between log(hs-CRP) and myocardial infarction or stroke. The relations were similar in patients with and without previous vascular disease., Conclusion: Low grade inflammation, as measured by hs-CRP, is an independent risk factor for vascular- and all-cause mortality but not for cardiovascular events in high-risk type 2 diabetes patients. Chronic low-grade inflammation may be a treatment target to lower residual cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes patients., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: To determine whether communicating personalised statin therapy-effects obtained by prognostic algorithm leads to lower decisional conflict associated with statin use in patients with stable cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with standard (non-personalised) therapy-effects., Design: Hypothesis-blinded, three-armed randomised controlled trial SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 303 statin users with stable CVD enrolled in a cohort INTERVENTION: Participants were randomised in a 1:1:1 ratio to standard practice (control-group) or one of two intervention arms. Intervention arms received standard practice plus (1) a personalised health profile , (2) educational videos and (3) a structured telephone consultation. Intervention arms received personalised estimates of prognostic changes associated with both discontinuation of current statin and intensification to the most potent statin type and dose (ie, atorvastatin 80 mg). Intervention arms differed in how these changes were expressed: either change in individual 10-year absolute CVD risk (iAR-group) or CVD-free life-expectancy (iLE-group) calculated with the SMART-REACH model (http://U-Prevent.com)., Outcome: Primary outcome was patient decisional conflict score (DCS) after 1 month. The score varies from 0 (no conflict) to 100 (high conflict). Secondary outcomes were collected at 1 or 6 months: DCS, quality of life, illness perception, patient activation, patient perception of statin efficacy and shared decision-making, self-reported statin adherence, understanding of statin-therapy, post-randomisation low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level and physician opinion of the intervention. Outcomes are reported as median (25th- 75th percentile)., Results: Decisional conflict differed between the intervention arms: median control 27 (20-43), iAR-group 22 (11-30; p-value vs control 0.001) and iLE-group 25 (10-31; p-value vs control 0.021). No differences in secondary outcomes were observed., Conclusion: In patients with clinically manifest CVD, providing personalised estimations of treatment-effects resulted in a small but significant decrease in decisional conflict after 1 month. The results support the use of personalised predictions for supporting decision-making., Trial Registration: NTR6227/NL6080., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

The purpose is to investigate the added prognostic value of coronary artery calcium (CAC), thoracic aortic calcium (TAC), and heart valve calcium scores for prediction of a combined endpoint of recurrent major cardiovascular events and cardiovascular interventions (MACE +) in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). In total, 567 patients with established CVD enrolled in a substudy of the UCC-SMART cohort, entailing cardiovascular CT imaging and calcium scoring, were studied. Five Cox proportional hazards models for prediction of 4-year risk of MACE + were developed; traditional CVD risk predictors only (model I), with addition of CAC (model II), TAC (model III), heart valve calcium (model IV), and all calcium scores (model V). Bootstrapping was performed to account for optimism. During a median follow-up of 3.43 years (IQR 2.28-4.74) 77 events occurred (MACE+). Calibration of predicted versus observed 4-year risk for model I without calcium scores was good, and the c-statistic was 0.65 (95%CI 0.59-0.72). Calibration for models II-V was similar to model I, and c-statistics were 0.67, 0.65, 0.65, and 0.68 for model II, III, IV, and V, respectively. NRIs showed improvement in risk classification by model II (NRI 15.24% (95%CI 0.59-29.39)) and model V (NRI 20.00% (95%CI 5.59-34.92)), but no improvement for models III and IV. In patients with established CVD, addition of the CAC score improved performance of a risk prediction model with classical risk factors for the prediction of the combined endpoint MACE+ . Addition of the TAC or heart valve score did not improve risk predictions.

Background: Existing cardiovascular risk scores for patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) estimate residual risk of recurrent major cardiovascular events (MACE). The aim of the current study is to develop and externally validate a prediction model to estimate the 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions (MACE+) in patients with established CVD., Methods: Data of patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N = 8421) were used for model development, and patient data from REACH Western Europe (N = 14,528) and REACH North America (N = 19,495) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on the existing SMART risk score. A Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted 10-year risk model was developed for the combined outcome MACE+. The model was validated in all patients and in strata of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral artery disease (PAD)., Results: External calibration for 2-year risk in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America was good, c-statistics were moderate: 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. In strata of CVD at baseline good external calibration was observed in patients with CHD and CeVD, however, poor calibration was seen in patients with PAD. C-statistics for patients with CHD were 0.60 and 0.57, for patients with CeVD 0.62 and 0.61, and for patients with PAD 0.53 and 0.54 in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America, respectively., Conclusions: The 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions can be estimated in patients with established CHD or CeVD. However, cardiovascular interventions in patients with PAD could not be predicted reliably., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To investigate the association between intracranial atherosclerosis (ICAS) and cognitive functioning in patients with a history of vascular disease., Methods: Within the Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease-Magnetic Resonance (SMART-MR) study, cross-sectional analyses were performed in 130 patients (mean ± SD age 68 ± 9 years) with 7T vessel wall MRI data. Vessel wall lesions were rated according to established criteria and summed into a circulatory and artery-specific ICAS burden. Associations between ICAS burden and Z scores of memory, executive functioning, working memory, and processing speed were estimated using linear regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, education, reading ability, and vascular risk factors., Results: A total of 125 patients (96%) had ≥1 vessel wall lesion; the mean ICAS burden was 8.5 ± 5.7. A statistically nonsignificant association was found between total ICAS burden and memory (b = -0.03 per +1 lesion; 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.05 to 0.00). No associations were found for the other domains. A statistically significant association was found for ICAS burden of the posterior cerebral artery (PCA) and memory (b = -0.12 per +1 lesion; 95% CI -0.23 to -0.01) and executive functioning (b = -0.10 per +1 lesion; 95% CI -0.19 to -0.01). Statistically nonsignificant associations were found for the anterior cerebral artery (ACA) burden and memory (b = -0.13 per +1 lesion; 95% CI -0.26 to 0.01) and executive functioning (b = -0.11 per +1 lesion; 95% CI -0.22 to 0.01). Additional adjustments for large infarcts, white matter hyperintensities, lacunes, and ≥50% carotid stenosis produced similar results., Conclusions: Our results suggest an artery-specific vulnerability of memory and executive functioning to ICAS, possibly due to strategic brain regions involved with these cognitive domains, which are located in the arterial territory of the PCA and ACA., (© 2020 American Academy of Neurology.)

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share many common risk factors; patients with CVD also may be at risk of developing cancer., Objectives: The aim of this study was to derive and externally validate prediction models for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk for total, colorectal, and lung cancer in patients with established CVD., Methods: Data from patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N = 7,280) were used for model development, and from the CANTOS trial (N = 9,322) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on previously published cancer risk scores, clinical availability, and presence in the derivation dataset. Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted lifetime models were developed for the outcomes total, colorectal, and lung cancer., Results: Selected predictors were age, sex, smoking, weight, height, alcohol use, antiplatelet use, diabetes, and C-reactive protein. External calibration for the 4-year risk of lung, colorectal, and total cancer was reasonable in our models, as was discrimination with C-statistics of 0.74, 0.64, and 0.63, respectively. Median predicted lifetime and 10-year risks in CANTOS were 26% (range 1% to 52%) and 13% (range 1% to 31%) for total cancer; 4% (range 0% to 13%) and 2% (range 0% to 6%) for colorectal cancer; and 5% (range 0% to 37%) and 2% (range 0% to 24%) for lung cancer., Conclusions: Lifetime and 10-year risk of total, colorectal, and lung cancer can be estimated reasonably well in patients with established CVD with readily available clinical predictors. With additional study, these tools could be used in clinical practice to further aid in the emphasis of healthy lifestyle changes and to guide thresholds for targeted diagnostics and screening., (© 2020 The Authors.)

Background and Aims: Pharmacological lowering of inflammation has proven effective in reducing recurrent cardiovascular event rates. Aim of the current study is to evaluate lifestyle changes (smoking cessation, weight loss, physical activity level increase, alcohol moderation, and a summary lifestyle improvement score) in relation to change in plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration in patients with established cardiovascular disease., Methods: In total, 1794 patients from the UCC-SMART cohort with stable cardiovascular disease and CRP levels ≤10 mg/L, who returned for a follow-up study visit after median 9.9 years (IQR 5.4-10.8), were included. The relation between changes in smoking status, weight, physical activity, alcohol consumption, a summary lifestyle improvement score and change in plasma CRP concentration was evaluated with linear regression analyses., Results: Smoking cessation was related to a 0.40 mg/L decline in CRP concentration (β-coefficient -0.40; 95%CI -0.73,-0.07). Weight loss (per 1SD = 6.4 kg) and increase in physical activity (per 1 SD = 48 MET hours per week) were related to a decrease in CRP concentration (β-coefficients -0.25; 95%CI -0.33,-0.16 and -0.09; 95%CI -0.17,-0.01 per SD). Change in alcohol consumption was not related to CRP difference. Every point higher in the summary lifestyle improvement score was related to a decrease in CRP concentration of 0.17 mg/L (β-coefficient -0.17; 95%CI -0.26,-0.07)., Conclusions: Smoking cessation, increase in physical activity, and weight loss are related to a decrease in CRP concentration in patients with stable cardiovascular disease. Patients with the highest summary lifestyle improvement score have the most decrease in CRP concentration. These results may indicate that healthy lifestyle changes contribute to lowering systemic inflammation, potentially leading to a lower cardiovascular risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: P.M. Ridker, has received investigator initiated research grants from Kowa, Novartis, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, NHLBI, NCI. Dr Ridker has served as a consultant to Corvidia, Inflammazome, Novartis, Amgen, Merck, and Civi Bio. Dr Ridker is listed as co-inventor on patents related to the use of inflammatory biomarkers in CVD and diabetes that are no longer active. F.W. Asselbergs reports grants from UCL Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, outside the submitted work. The other authors have nothing to declare., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Satisfactory tools to preclude low-risk patients from intensive diagnostic testing for primary aldosteronism (PA) are lacking. Therefore, we aimed to develop a decision tool to determine which patients with difficult-to-control hypertension have a low probability of PA, thereby limiting the exposure to invasive testing while at the same time increasing the efficiency of testing in the remaining patients., Methods: Data from consecutive patients with difficult-to-control hypertension, analysed through a standardized diagnostic protocol between January 2010 and October 2017 (n = 824), were included in this cross-sectional study. PA was diagnosed by a combined approach: 1) elevated aldosterone-to-renin ratio (> 5.0 pmol/fmol/s), confirmed with 2) non-suppressible aldosterone after standardized saline infusion (≥280 pmol/L). Multivariable logistic regression analyses including seven pre-specified clinical variables (age, systolic blood pressure, serum potassium, potassium supplementation, serum sodium, eGFR and HbA1c) was performed. After correction for optimism, test reliability, discriminative performance and test characteristics were determined., Results: PA was diagnosed in 40 (4.9%) of 824 patients. Predicted probabilities of PA agreed well with observed frequencies and the c-statistic was 0.77 (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.70-0.83). Predicted probability cut-off values of 1.0-2.5% prevented unnecessary testing in 8-32% of the patients with difficult-to-control hypertension, carrying sensitivities of 0.98 (95%CI 0.96-0.99) and 0.92 (0.83-0.97), and negative predictive values of 0.99 (0.98-1.00) and 0.99 (0.97-0.99)., Conclusions: With a decision tool, based on seven easy-to-measure clinical variables, patients with a low probability of PA can be reliably selected and a considerable proportion of patients with difficult-to-control hypertension can be spared intensive diagnostic testing.

Objective: To test the hypothesis that treatment decisions (treatment with a PCSK9-mAb versus no treatment) are both more effective and more cost-effective when based on estimated lifetime benefit than when based on estimated risk reduction over 10 years., Methods: A microsimulation model was constructed for 10,000 patients with stable cardiovascular disease (CVD). Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) due to recurrent cardiovascular events and (non)vascular death were estimated for lifetime benefit-based compared to 10-year risk-based treatment, with PCSK9 inhibition as an illustration example. Lifetime benefit in months gained and 10-year absolute risk reduction were estimated using the SMART-REACH model, including an individualized treatment effect of PCSK9 inhibitors based on baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. For the different numbers of patients treated (i.e. the 5%, 10%, and 20% of patients with the highest estimated benefit of both strategies), cost-effectiveness was assessed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), indicating additional costs per QALY gain., Results: Lifetime benefit-based treatment of 5%, 10%, and 20% of patients with the highest estimated benefit resulted in an ICER of €36,440/QALY, €39,650/QALY, or €41,426/QALY. Ten-year risk-based treatment decisions of 5%, 10%, and 20% of patients with the highest estimated risk reduction resulted in an ICER of €48,187/QALY, €53,368/QALY, or €52,390/QALY., Conclusion: Treatment decisions (treatment with a PCSK9-mAb versus no treatment) are both more effective and more cost-effective when based on estimated lifetime benefit than when based on estimated risk reduction over 10 years., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interest., (© The Author(s) 2020.)

Aims: The aim is to investigate (multifocal) cardiovascular calcification in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD), regarding prevalence, risk factors, and relation with recurrent CVD or vascular interventions. Coronary artery calcification (CAC), thoracic aortic calcification (TAC) (including ascending aorta, aortic arch, descending aorta), mitral annular calcification (MAC), and aortic valve calcification (AVC) are studied., Methods: The study concerned 568 patients with established CVD enrolled in the ORACLE cohort. All patients underwent computed tomography. Prevalence of site-specific and multifocal calcification was determined. Ordinal regression analyses were performed to quantify associations of risk factors with cardiovascular calcification, and Cox regression analyses to determine the relation between calcium scores and recurrent CVD or vascular interventions., Results: Calcification was multifocal in 76% (N = 380) of patients with calcification. Age (per SD) was associated with calcification at all locations (lowest OR 2.17; 99%CI 1.54-3.11 for ascending aorta calcification). Diabetes mellitus and systolic blood pressure were associated with TAC, whereas male sex was a determinant of CAC. TAC and CAC were related to the combined endpoint CVD or vascular intervention (N = 68). In a model with all calcium scores combined, only CAC was related to the combined outcome (HR 1.39; 95%CI 1.15-1.68)., Conclusion: Cardiovascular calcification is generally multifocal in patients with established CVD. Differences in associations between risk factors and calcification at various anatomical locations stress the divergence in pathophysiological pathways. CAC is most strongly related to recurrent CVD or vascular interventions independent of traditional risk factors, and independent of heart valve and thoracic aorta calcification., (© 2020 The Authors.)

Aims: The benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people., Methods and Results: Model development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67-0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via www.U-Prevent.com., Conclusion: The model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor-patient communication., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Neurodegenerative and neurovascular diseases lead to heterogeneous brain abnormalities. A combined analysis of these abnormalities by phenotypes of the brain might give a more accurate representation of the underlying aetiology. We aimed to identify different MRI phenotypes of the brain and assessed the risk of future stroke and mortality within these subgroups. In 1003 patients (59 ± 10 years) from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease-Magnetic Resonance (SMART-MR) study, different quantitative 1.5T brain MRI markers were used in a hierarchical clustering analysis to identify 11 distinct subgroups with a different distribution in brain MRI markers and cardiovascular risk factors, and a different risk of stroke (Cox regression: from no increased risk compared to the reference group with relatively few brain abnormalities to HR = 10.34; 95% CI 3.80↔28.12 for the multi-burden subgroup) and mortality (from no increased risk compared to the reference group to HR = 4.00; 95% CI 2.50↔6.40 for the multi-burden subgroup). In conclusion, within a group of patients with manifest arterial disease, we showed that different MRI phenotypes of the brain can be identified and that these were associated with different risks of future stroke and mortality. These MRI phenotypes can possibly classify individual patients and assess their risk of future stroke and mortality.

Aims: Low-grade inflammation, measured by elevated plasma concentrations of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is evidence that low-grade inflammation is also related to a higher risk of cancer. The present prospective cohort study evaluates the relation between low-grade systemic inflammation and risk of cancer in patients with stable CVD., Methods and Results: In total, 7178 patients with stable CVD and plasma CRP levels ≤10 mg/L were included. Data were linked to the Dutch national cancer registry. Cox regression models were fitted to study the relation between CRP and incident CVD and cancer. After a median follow-up time of 8.3 years (interquartile range 4.6-12.3) 1072 incident cancer diagnoses were observed. C-reactive protein concentration was related to total cancer [hazard ratio (HR) 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.65] comparing last quintile to first quintile of CRP. Especially lung cancer, independent of histopathological subtype, was related to CRP (HR 3.39; 95% CI 2.02-5.69 comparing last to first quintile of CRP). Incidence of epithelial neoplasms and especially squamous cell neoplasms were related to CRP concentration, irrespective of anatomical location. Sensitivity analyses after excluding patients with a cancer diagnosis within 1, 2, and 5 years of follow-up showed similar results. No effect modification was observed by smoking status or time since smoking cessation (P-values for interaction > 0.05)., Conclusion: Chronic systemic low-grade inflammation, measured by CRP levels ≤10 mg/L, is a risk factor for incident cancer, markedly lung cancer, in patients with stable CVD. The relation between inflammation and incident cancer is seen in former and current smokers and is uncertain in never smokers., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: Adding rivaroxaban to aspirin in patients with stable atherosclerotic disease reduces the recurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but increases the risk of major bleeding. The aim of this study was to estimate the individual lifetime treatment benefit and harm of adding low-dose rivaroxaban to aspirin in patients with stable cardiovascular disease., Methods and Results: Patients with established CVD from the COMPASS trial (n = 27 390) and SMART prospective cohort study (n = 8139) were used. Using the pre-existing lifetime SMART-REACH model for recurrent CVD, and a newly developed Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted lifetime model for major bleeding, individual treatment effects from adding low-dose rivaroxaban to aspirin in patients with stable CVD were estimated, expressed in terms of (i) life-years free of stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) gained; and (ii) life-years free from major bleeding lost. Calibration of the SMART-REACH model for prediction of recurrent CVD events in the COMPASS study was good. The major bleeding risk model as derived in the COMPASS trial showed good external calibration in the SMART cohort. Predicted individual gain in life expectancy free of stroke or MI from added low-dose rivaroxaban had a median of 16 months (range 1-48 months), while predicted individualized lifetime lost in terms of major bleeding had a median of 2 months (range 0-20 months)., Conclusion: There is a wide distribution in lifetime gain and harm from adding low-dose rivaroxaban to aspirin in individual patients with stable CVD. Using these lifetime models, benefits and bleeding risk can be weighed for each individual patient, which could facilitate treatment decisions in clinical practice., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Lacunes and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are features of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) that are associated with poor functional outcomes. However, how the two are related remains unclear. In this study, we examined the association between lacunes and several WMH features in patients with a history of vascular disease. A total of 999 patients (mean age 59 ± 10 years) with a 1.5 T brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan were included from the SMART-MR study. Lacunes were scored visually and WMH features (volume, subtype and shape) were automatically determined. Analyses consisted of linear and Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, and total intracranial volume (ICV). Patients with lacunes (n = 188; 19%) had greater total (B = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.21), periventricular/confluent (B = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.27), and deep (B = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.97) natural log-transformed WMH volumes than patients without lacunes. Patients with lacunes had an increased risk of confluent type WMHs (RR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.98 to 2.92) and deep WMHs (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.62) and had a more irregular shape of confluent WMHs than patients without lacunes, independent of total WMH volume. In conclusion, we found that lacunes on MRI were associated with WMH features that correspond to more severe small vessel changes, mortality, and poor functional outcomes.

We estimated associations of subjective cognitive decline (SCD) with neuroimaging markers of dementia and cognitive functioning in patients with a history of vascular disease without objective cognitive impairment. Within the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease-Memory, depression and aging study, 599 patients (62 ± 9 years) had 1.5 T brain magnetic resonance imaging and cognitive testing at the baseline and after 8 years of follow-up. Using multiple regression analyses, we estimated cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of SCD according to research criteria with volumes of total brain, hippocampus, white matter hyperintensities, and presence of lacunes and with memory, executive functioning, information processing speed, and working memory. SCD was associated with increased risk of lacunes at the baseline (relative risk = 1.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.03; 2.12) but not during follow-up. No significant associations with volumes of white matter hyperintensities, total brain, or hippocampus were observed. SCD was cross-sectionally associated with poorer executive functioning and speed but not during follow-up. More prospective studies are needed to further elucidate the relationship between SCD, brain imaging markers, and cognitive decline and the role of SCD in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer's disease., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Previous hospital-based studies have suggested delayed recognition of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in women. We wanted to assess differences in symptom presentation or triage among women and men who contacted primary care out-of-hours services (OHS) for chest discomfort., Design: Retrospective observational study., Setting: Primary care OHS., Participants: 276 women and 242 men with chest discomfort who contacted a primary care OHS in the Netherlands in 2013 and 2014., Main Outcome Measures: Differences between women and men regarding symptom presentation and urgency allocation., Results: 8.4% women and 14.0% men had ACS. Differences in symptoms between patients with and without ACS were in general small, for both women and men. In women with ACS compared with women without ACS, mean duration of telephone calls was discriminative; 5.22 (SD 2.53) vs 7.26 (SD 3.11) min, p value=0.003. In men, radiation of pain (89.3% vs 54.9%, p value=0.011) was discriminative for ACS, and stabbing chest pain (3.7% vs 24.0%, p value=0.014) for absence of ACS . Women and men with chest discomfort received similar high urgency allocation (crude and adjusted OR after correction for ACS and age; 1.03 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.48) and 1.04 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.52), respectively). Women with ACS received a high urgency allocation in 22/23 (95.7%) and men with ACS in 30/34 (88.2%), p value=0.331., Conclusions: Discriminating ACS in patients with chest discomfort who contacted primary care OHS is difficult in both women and men. Women and men with chest discomfort received similar high urgency allocation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aims: Thyroid dysfunction is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Whether thyroid function within the normal range is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease remains uncertain. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether plasma thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels in the normal range are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality in participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus with high cardiovascular risk., Methods: We included 1265 participants with high cardiovascular risk, type 2 diabetes, and TSH within the normal range (0.35-5.00 mIU/L) from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort. The primary outcome was major cardiovascular events (MACE; vascular death, stroke and myocardial infarction). Secondary outcomes of interest were the separate vascular outcomes and all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the risk of plasma TSH levels on all outcomes., Results: A total of 191 MACE occurred during a total follow-up of 8183 years. Plasma TSH levels were not associated with MACE (hazard ratio (HR) per mIU/L TSH increase 0.93; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.80-1.08). With a total of 54 strokes during the study period, plasma TSH was associated with a lower risk of stroke (HR per mIU/L 0.64, 95% CI 0.45-0.89). There was no association between plasma TSH levels and risk of myocardial infarction, vascular death, or all-cause mortality., Conclusions: Higher TSH levels within the normal range are associated with a lower risk of stroke in high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes, but not associated with the risk of other cardiovascular events or mortality., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To explore the presence of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) of an intensive lifestyle intervention on the occurrence of major cardiovascular events (MACE) in overweight or obese patients with type 2 diabetes, and to identify patient characteristics associated with individual treatment effect., Research Design and Methods: In 4,901 participants from the Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial, a penalized Cox regression model to predict treatment effect of intensive lifestyle intervention for the risk of MACE was derived, including all possible treatment-by-covariate interaction terms. The ability of the model to predict HTE was confirmed by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) and absolute risk change in quartiles of predicted treatment effect, and baseline patient characteristics were compared between quartiles., Results: In quartile 1 of predicted treatment effect, with the highest predicted risk reduction, there was a significant treatment benefit of intensive lifestyle intervention (HR 0.64 [95% CI 0.49-0.83]), whereas there was no effect from treatment in quartiles 2 and 3 (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.58-1.14] and 1.13 [95% CI 0.80-1.60], respectively) and a detrimental effect in quartile 4 (HR 1.37 [95% CI 1.09-1.73]). Several patient characteristics in demographics, medical history, physical examination, and laboratory values were associated with the level of treatment effect., Conclusions: This post hoc analysis of the Look AHEAD trial showed that an intensive lifestyle intervention aimed at weight loss may reduce cardiovascular events in selected patients but may have a detrimental treatment effect in others., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Aims: Although group-level effectiveness of lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been proven by trials, important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We aim to develop and validate a prediction tool for individualizing lifelong CVD prevention in people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) predicting life-years gained without myocardial infarction or stroke., Methods and Results: We developed and validated the Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) model, consisting of two complementary competing risk adjusted Cox proportional hazards functions using data from people with T2DM registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n = 389 366). Competing outcomes were (i) CVD events (vascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) and (ii) non-vascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, haemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non- high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria, T2DM duration, insulin treatment, and history of CVD. External validation was performed using data from the ADVANCE, ACCORD, ASCOT and ALLHAT-LLT-trials, the SMART and EPIC-NL cohorts, and the Scottish diabetes register (total n = 197 785). Predicted and observed CVD-free survival showed good agreement in all validation sets. C-statistics for prediction of CVD were 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.84) and 0.64-0.65 for internal and external validation, respectively. We provide an interactive calculator at www.U-Prevent.com that combines model predictions with relative treatment effects from trials to predict individual benefit from preventive treatment., Conclusion: Cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy and effects of lifelong prevention in terms of CVD-free life-years gained can be estimated for people with T2DM using readily available clinical characteristics. Predictions of individual-level treatment effects facilitate translation of trial results to individual patients., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aim: To quantify the magnitude and specific contributions of known cardiovascular risk factors leading to higher cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality caused by type 2 diabetes (T2D)., Methods: Mediation analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of known classical risk factors for vascular disease in T2D (insulin resistance, systolic blood pressure, renal function, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and micro-albuminuria), and what proportion of the effect of T2D on cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality these factors mediate in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort consisting of 1910 T2D patients., Results: Only 35% (95% CI 15-71%) of the excess cardiovascular risk caused by T2D is mediated by the classical cardiovascular risk factors. The largest mediated effect was through insulin resistance [proportion of mediated effect (PME) 18%, 95% CI 3-37%], followed by elevated triglycerides (PME 8%, 95% CI 4-14%) and micro-albuminuria (PME 7%, 95% CI 3-17%). Only 42% (95% CI 18-73%) of the excess mortality risk was mediated by the classical risk factors considered. The largest mediated effect was by micro-albuminuria (PME 18%, 95% CI 10-29%) followed by insulin resistance (PME 15%, 95% CI 1-33%)., Conclusion: A substantial amount of the increased cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality caused by T2D cannot be explained by traditional vascular risk factors. Future research should focus on identifying non-classical pathways that might further explain the increased cardiovascular and mortality risk caused by T2D., (© 2019 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Hippocampal sulcal cavities (HSCs) are frequently observed on MRI, but their etiology and relevance is unclear. HSCs may be anatomical variations, or result from pathology. We assessed the presence of HSCs, and their cross-sectional association with demographics, vascular risk factors and cognitive functioning in two study samples. Within a random sample of 92 patients with vascular disease from the SMART-Medea study (mean age = 62, SD = 9 years) and 83 primary care patients from the PREDICT-MR study (mean age = 62, SD = 12 years) one rater manually scored HSCs at 1.5 T 3D T1-weighted coronal images blind to patient information. We estimated relative risks of age, sex and vascular risk factors with presence of HSCs using Poisson regression with log-link function and robust standard errors adjusted for age and sex. Using ANCOVA adjusted for age, sex, and education we estimated the association of the number of HSCs with memory, executive functioning, speed, and working memory. In the SMART-Medea study HSCs were present in 65% and in 52% in the PREDICT-MR study (χ 2  = 2.99, df = 1, p = 0.08). In both samples, no significant associations were observed between presence of HSCs and age (SMART-Medea: RR = 1.00; 95%CI 0.98-1.01; PREDICT-MR: RR = 1.01; 95%CI 0.99-1.03), sex, or vascular risk factors. Also, no associations between HSCs and cognitive functioning were found in either sample. HSCs are frequently observed on 1.5 T MRI. Our findings suggest that, in patients with a history of vascular disease and primary care attendees, HSCs are part of normal anatomic variation of the human hippocampus rather than markers of pathology.

Aims: To quantify the relation between smoking cessation after a first cardiovascular (CV) event and risk of recurrent CV events and mortality., Methods: Data were available from 4,673 patients aged 61 ± 8.7 years, with a recent (≤1 year) first manifestation of arterial disease participating in the SMART-cohort. Cox models were used to quantify the relation between smoking status and risk of recurrent major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (MACE including stroke, MI and vascular mortality) and mortality. In addition, survival according to smoking status was plotted, taking competing risk of non-vascular mortality into account., Results: A third of the smokers stopped after their first CV event. During a median of 7.4 (3.7-10.8) years of follow-up, 794 patients died and 692 MACE occurred. Compared to patients who continued to smoke, patients who quit had a lower risk of recurrent MACE (adjusted HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.49-0.88) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48-0.82). Patients who reported smoking cessation on average lived 5 life years longer and recurrent MACE occurred 10 years later. In patients with a first CV event >70 years, cessation of smoking had improved survival which on average was comparable to former or never smokers., Conclusions: Irrespective of age at first CV event, cessation of smoking after a first CV event is related to a substantial lower risk of recurrent vascular events and all-cause mortality. Since smoking cessation is more effective in reducing CV risk than any pharmaceutical treatment of major risk factors, it should be a key objective for patients with vascular disease., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: We aimed to estimate absolute benefit and harm from treatment with dabigatran in individual patients with atrial fibrillation, and to select the optimal dose for each individual., Methods: We derived and validated a prediction model for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation from the 3 treatment arms of the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy With Dabigatran Etexilate) (n=11 955 in derivation cohort, n=6158 in validation cohort). Readily available patient characteristics were included in Fine and Gray competing risk models (sex, age, smoking, antiplatelet drugs, previous vascular disease, diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin). Five-year risks for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were estimated without anticoagulation therapy, and compared with high- and low-dose dabigatran., Results: Model calibration was good, and discrimination was adequate with a c-statistic of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.70) for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) for major bleeding. The 5-year absolute risk reduction for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily ranged from <10% in 20% of patients to >25% in 14% of patients, and the 5-year absolute risk increase for major bleeding ranged from <5% in 53% of patients to 15% to 20% in 1% of patients. Comparing high-dose to low-dose dabigatran, the net benefit (absolute risk reduction minus absolute risk increase) was positive for 46% of patients., Conclusions: The absolute treatment benefits and harms of dabigatran in atrial fibrillation can be estimated based on readily available patient characteristics. Such treatment effect estimations can be used for shared decision making before starting dabigatran treatment and to determine the optimal dose., Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00262600.

Background: The haemoglobin glycation index (HGI) has been proposed as a marker of interindividual differences in haemoglobin glycosylation. Previous studies have shown a relationship between high HGI and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with diabetes. However, no studies have investigated the role of previous CVD in this association., Methods: The study cohort comprised patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM; n=1910) included in the Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART) study. The relationship between either HGI or HbA 1c and a composite of cardiovascular events as the primary outcome, and mortality, cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke as secondary outcomes, was investigated using Cox proportional-hazards models. Similar analyses were performed after stratification according to previous CVD., Results: A 1-unit higher HGI was associated with a 29% greater risk of a composite of cardiovascular events (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.06-1.57) in patients without previous CVD, whereas no such relationship was seen in patients with previous CVD (HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.86-1.08). The direction and magnitude of the hazard ratios (HRs) of HGI and HbA 1c in relation to outcomes were similar. Additional adjustment for HbA 1c in the association between HGI and outcomes lowered the HRs., Conclusion: Similar to HbA 1c , higher HGI is related to higher risk of cardiovascular events in patients with T2DM without CVD. As HbA 1c has proved to be a comparable risk factor, and obtaining and interpreting the HGI is complicated, any additional benefit of applying the HGI in clinical settings is likely to be limited., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.)

Background: Genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 is a recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effect on disease progression and subsequent events is unclear, raising questions about its value for stratification of residual risk., Methods: A variant at chromosome 9p21 (rs1333049) was tested for association with subsequent events during follow-up in 103 357 Europeans with established CHD at baseline from the GENIUS-CHD (Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease) Consortium (73.1% male, mean age 62.9 years). The primary outcome, subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction (CHD death/myocardial infarction), occurred in 13 040 of the 93 115 participants with available outcome data. Effect estimates were compared with case/control risk obtained from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics) including 47 222 CHD cases and 122 264 controls free of CHD., Results: Meta-analyses revealed no significant association between chromosome 9p21 and the primary outcome of CHD death/myocardial infarction among those with established CHD at baseline (GENIUS-CHD odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.99-1.05). This contrasted with a strong association in CARDIoGRAMPlusC4D odds ratio 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.22; P for interaction <0.001 compared with the GENIUS-CHD estimate. Similarly, no clear associations were identified for additional subsequent outcomes, including all-cause death, although we found a modest positive association between chromosome 9p21 and subsequent revascularization (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09)., Conclusions: In contrast to studies comparing individuals with CHD to disease-free controls, we found no clear association between genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 and risk of subsequent acute CHD events when all individuals had CHD at baseline. However, the association with subsequent revascularization may support the postulated mechanism of chromosome 9p21 for promoting atheroma development.

Aim: To evaluate the relationship between thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels within the normal range and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a cohort of patients at high cardiovascular risk, and to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of previous studies., Methods: We included 5542 patients without T2DM from the prospective Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease study with TSH levels between 0.35 and 5.0 mIU/L without anti-thyroid medication or thyroid-hormone replacement therapy. Cox regression was used to investigate the relationship between baseline plasma TSH levels and incident T2DM. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane were searched for prospective cohorts assessing TSH and incident T2DM. Hazard ratios (HR) from included prospective cohort studies were pooled using a random-effects model., Results: In patients at high cardiovascular risk, higher plasma TSH levels in the normal range were not associated [HR 1.07 per mIU/L increase in TSH (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.95-1.22)] with an increased risk of T2DM, adjusted for age, sex, smoking, total and HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides. In the meta-analysis involving three prospective cohort studies, including the present study, including 29,791 participants with 1930 incident events, there was no relation between plasma TSH levels in the normal range and incident T2DM [pooled HR 1.06 (95% CI 0.99-1.14)]., Conclusion: There is no apparent relation between plasma TSH levels in the normal range and incident T2DM in patients at high cardiovascular risk.

Background: The Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium was established to facilitate discovery and validation of genetic variants and biomarkers for risk of subsequent CHD events, in individuals with established CHD., Methods: The consortium currently includes 57 studies from 18 countries, recruiting 185 614 participants with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD, or a mixture of both at baseline. All studies collected biological samples and followed-up study participants prospectively for subsequent events., Results: Enrollment into the individual studies took place between 1985 to present day with a duration of follow-up ranging from 9 months to 15 years. Within each study, participants with CHD are predominantly of self-reported European descent (38%-100%), mostly male (44%-91%) with mean ages at recruitment ranging from 40 to 75 years. Initial feasibility analyses, using a federated analysis approach, yielded expected associations between age (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16) per 5-year increase, male sex (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.21) and smoking (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51) with risk of subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction and differing associations with other individual and composite cardiovascular endpoints., Conclusions: GENIUS-CHD is a global collaboration seeking to elucidate genetic and nongenetic determinants of subsequent event risk in individuals with established CHD, to improve residual risk prediction and identify novel drug targets for secondary prevention. Initial analyses demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of a federated analysis approach. The consortium now plans to initiate and test novel hypotheses as well as supporting replication and validation analyses for other investigators.

Objective: To explore genetic and lifestyle risk factors of MRI-defined brain infarcts (BI) in large population-based cohorts., Methods: We performed meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and examined associations of vascular risk factors and their genetic risk scores (GRS) with MRI-defined BI and a subset of BI, namely, small subcortical BI (SSBI), in 18 population-based cohorts (n = 20,949) from 5 ethnicities (3,726 with BI, 2,021 with SSBI). Top loci were followed up in 7 population-based cohorts (n = 6,862; 1,483 with BI, 630 with SBBI), and we tested associations with related phenotypes including ischemic stroke and pathologically defined BI., Results: The mean prevalence was 17.7% for BI and 10.5% for SSBI, steeply rising after age 65. Two loci showed genome-wide significant association with BI: FBN2, p = 1.77 × 10 -8 ; and LINC00539/ZDHHC20, p = 5.82 × 10 -9 . Both have been associated with blood pressure (BP)-related phenotypes, but did not replicate in the smaller follow-up sample or show associations with related phenotypes. Age- and sex-adjusted associations with BI and SSBI were observed for BP traits ( p value for BI, p [BI] = 9.38 × 10 -25 ; p [SSBI] = 5.23 × 10 -14 for hypertension), smoking ( p [BI] = 4.4 × 10 -10 ; p [SSBI] = 1.2 × 10 -4 ), diabetes ( p [BI] = 1.7 × 10 -8 ; p [SSBI] = 2.8 × 10 -3 ), previous cardiovascular disease ( p [BI] = 1.0 × 10 -18 ; p [SSBI] = 2.3 × 10 -7 ), stroke ( p [BI] = 3.9 × 10 -69 ; p [SSBI] = 3.2 × 10 -24 ), and MRI-defined white matter hyperintensity burden ( p [BI] = 1.43 × 10 -157 ; p [SSBI] = 3.16 × 10 -106 ), but not with body mass index or cholesterol. GRS of BP traits were associated with BI and SSBI ( p ≤ 0.0022), without indication of directional pleiotropy., Conclusion: In this multiethnic GWAS meta-analysis, including over 20,000 population-based participants, we identified genetic risk loci for BI requiring validation once additional large datasets become available. High BP, including genetically determined, was the most significant modifiable, causal risk factor for BI., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.)

Background and Purpose- Intracranial vessel wall lesions are a novel imaging marker of intracranial atherosclerosis (ICAS), but data on their occurrence and risk factors are lacking. Our aim was to study the frequency, distribution, and risk factors of intracranial vessel wall lesions on 7T magnetic resonance imaging in patients with a history of vascular disease. Methods- Within the SMART-MR study (Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease-Magnetic Resonance), cross-sectional analyses were performed in 130 patients (68±9 years) with assessable 7T intracranial vessel wall-magnetic resonance imaging data. Associations between vascular risk factors and ICAS burden, defined as the total number of vessel wall lesions, were estimated using linear regression analyses with ICAS burden as the dependent variable, adjusted for age and sex. Results- Ninety-six percent of patients had ≥1 vessel wall lesion. The mean±SD (range) ICAS burden was 8.5±5.7 (0-32) lesions. Significant associations were found between ICAS burden and age ( b=2.0 per +10 years; 95% CI, 0.81- 3.10), systolic blood pressure ( b=0.9 per +10 mm Hg; 95% CI, 0.27-1.42), diabetes mellitus ( b=3.2 for presence of diabetes mellitus; 95% CI, 0.79-5.72), hemoglobin A1c level ( b=1.2 per +1%; 95% CI, 0.19-2.26), apoB (apolipoprotein-B) ( b=4.7 per +1 g/L; 95% CI, 0.07-9.35), and hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) level ( b=2.7 for hs-CRP >3 mg/L; 95% CI, 0.22-5.11). No significant associations were found with sex, smoking, and other lipid-factors. Conclusions- Vessel wall lesions are a novel and direct magnetic resonance imaging marker of ICAS. In this cohort, 96% of patients had at least 1 lesion on 7T vessel wall-magnetic resonance imaging. More lesions were found with older age, higher systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, and higher levels of hemoglobin A1c, apoB, and hs-CRP.

Commercial enterprises are selling MRI scans with the promise of longer and happier lives. A recent paper summarises the literature on this claim. We notice that, despite decades of this practice, very little careful research can be found. However, it does seem that serious issues are discovered in about 4% of people. When examining the supplementary materials, most of these issues turn out not to be of a serious nature, despite having been classified as such. Finally, scant and low-quality follow-up shows that only 0.4% of people end up with a serious diagnosis and we remain in the dark about whether the scans had any impact on their clinical outcomes. The paper also does not address the myriad of downsides related to scanning healthy people, such as needless distress and interventions for false-positives. We propose to incentivise proper collection of data by transferring the cost of following up on false-negative findings from the healthcare system to the MRI companies.

Objective: In statin-treated patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), residual risk of cardiovascular events is partly explained by plasma levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). This study aimed to estimate individual benefit of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibition in CAD patients already treated with high-dose statin., Methods: Individual lifetime benefit was estimated in months gain free of stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) until age 80 years. Predictions were based on two competing risk models developed in data from 4853 patients with CAD originating from the atorvastatin 80 mg arm of the Treating to New Targets (TNT) trial. The relative effect of PCSK9 inhibition was added to the models and was assumed based on average estimates from large clinical trials. We accounted for individual LDL-C levels, assuming 50% LDL-C reduction by PCSK9 inhibition and 21% cardiovascular risk reduction per mmol/L (39 mg/dL) LDL-C lowering., Results: Estimated individual gain was <6 months in 61% of the patients, 6-12 months in 28% of the patients and ≥12 months in 10% of the patients (median 5, quartiles 2-8 months). Highest estimated benefit was observed in younger patients (aged 40-60 years) with high risk factor burden, particularly if LDL-C levels were >1.8 mmol/L (>70 mg/dL). Estimated benefit was lowest (≤5 months) in older patients (≥70 years), in particular if LDL-C and other risk factors levels were low., Conclusion: The individual estimated lifetime benefit from PCSK9 inhibition in patients with stable CAD on high-dose statin varied from <6 to ≥12 months free of stroke or MI. Highest benefit is expected in younger patients (age 40-60 years) with high risk factor burden and relatively high LDL-C levels., Trial Registration Number: NCT00327691; Post-results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: LK, YvdG, JAND and FLJV: declares no conflict of interest. KKR reports in the past year research grants to Institution: Pfizer, Amgen, MSD, Sanofi and Regeneron, and consulting for Aegerion, Amgen, Astra Zeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cerenis, Eli Lilly, Kowa, Merck, Pfizer, Regeneron, Resverlogix, Sanofi and Takeda. SMB declares receiving consultancy fees from Pfizer. YMS declares no conflict of interest. JCL declares consulting fees from Pfizer, Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca and lecture fees from Pfizer. JJPK declares that he has acted as a consultant to and received honoraria from the following companies: Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Catabasis, Cerenis, CSL Behring, Dezima Pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly, Esperion, Isis, Merck, Novartis, Pronova, Regeneron, Sanofi, The Medicines Company, Kowa, Gemfire, Cymabay and Roche., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objective: The relation between different electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH) criteria and cardiovascular risk in patients with clinical manifest arterial disease is unclear. Therefore, we determined the association between four ECG-LVH criteria: Sokolow-Lyon, Cornell product, Cornell/strain index and Framingham criterion; and risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in this population., Methods: Risk of cardiovascular events was estimated in 6913 adult patients with clinical manifest arterial disease originating from the Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort. Cox proportional regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of the four ECG-LVH criteria and the primary composite outcome: myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or cardiovascular death; and secondary outcomes: MI, stroke and all-cause mortality; adjusted for confounders., Results: The highest prevalence of ECG-LVH was observed for Cornell product (10%) and Cornell/strain index (9%). All four ECG-LVH criteria were associated with an increased risk of the primary composite endpoint: Sokolow-Lyon (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% CI 1.13-1.66), Cornell product (hazard ratio 1.54, 95% CI 1.30-1.82), Cornell/strain index (hazard ratio 1.70, 95% CI 1.44-2.00) and Framingham criterion (hazard ratio 1.78, 95% CI 1.21-2.62). Cornell product, Cornell/strain index and Framingham criterion ECG-LVH were additionally associated with an elevated risk of secondary outcomes. Cardiovascular risk increased whenever two, or three or more ECG-LVH criteria were present concurrently., Conclusion: All four ECG-LVH criteria are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. As Cornell/strain index is both highly prevalent and carries a high cardiovascular risk, this is likely the most relevant ECG-LVH criterion for clinical practice.

Small infarcts are among the key imaging features of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD), but remain largely undetected on conventional MRI. We aimed to evaluate (1) imaging criteria for the detection of small infarcts in the caudate nucleus on 7T MRI, (2) intra- and inter-rater agreement, (3) frequency and (4) detection rate on 7T versus 1.5T MRI. In 90 patients (68 ± 8 years) with a history of vascular disease from the SMART-MR study, we defined 7T imaging criteria for cavitated and non-cavitated small infarcts in the caudate nucleus. In a separate set of 23 patients from the SMART study, intra-rater and inter-rater agreement was excellent for presence, number, and individual locations (Kappa's, ICCs, and Dice similarity coefficients ranged from 0.85 to 1.00). In the 90 patients, 21 infarcts (20 cavitated) in 12 patients were detected on 7T (13%) compared to 7 infarcts in 6 patients on 1.5T (7%). In conclusion, we established reproducible imaging criteria for the detection of small infarcts in the caudate nucleus on 7T MRI and showed that 7T MRI allows for a higher detection rate than conventional 1.5T MRI. These imaging criteria can be used in future studies to provide new insights into the pathophysiology of CSVD.

Objectives A polypill containing aspirin, a statin and blood pressure (BP)-lowering agents has been proposed for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. To increase adherence and reduce the gaps between indicated and used therapy, a polypill might be of interest for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Our aim was to assess the prevalence of the combined use of polypill components in patients with T2DM over time. Methods The combined use of polypill components was assessed between 1996 and 2015 in patients with T2DM in the prospective SMART cohort ( n = 1828). The results were dichotomized into patients without ( n = 568) and with ( n = 1260) vascular disease. The patient characteristics associated with the use of polypill components were evaluated. Results In total, 19% of patients with T2DM without vascular disease received a statin and ≥2 BP-lowering agents ('cardiovascular polypill') and 13% received additional oral glucose-lowering therapy ('diabetic polypill'). Of the patients with T2DM with vascular disease, 42% received the combination of an antiplatelet agent, a statin and ≥2 BP-lowering agents ('cardiovascular polypill') and 30% received additional glucose-lowering therapy ('diabetic polypill'). The prevalence of the use of the cardiovascular and diabetic polypill combination has substantially increased between 1996 and 2015 to 36 and 32% in patients without vascular disease and to 67 and 57% in patients with vascular disease. Conclusions Patients with T2DM frequently use polypill components, often together with oral glucose-lowering agents, and this rate of use has increased steadily between 1996 and 2015. Introducing a cardiovascular or diabetic polypill for patients with T2DM seems to be highly relevant.

Introduction We evaluated the relationship between adipokine plasma concentrations and body fat distribution and the metabolic syndrome. Methods In a cohort of 1215 patients with clinically manifest vascular disease the relation between subcutaneous adipose tissue, visceral adipose tissue, waist circumference, body mass index and plasma concentrations of adipsin, chemerin, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, migration inhibitory factor, nerve growth factor, resistin, plasma amyloid A1, adiponectin, leptin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 and hepatic growth factor were cross-sectionally assessed with linear regression and adjusted for age and gender. The relation between adipokines and the metabolic syndrome was cross-sectionally evaluated using logistic regression. An adipokine profile was developed to measure the effect of combined rather than single adipokines. Results Adiposity was related to higher nerve growth factor, hepatic growth factor, migration inhibitory factor, leptin and adipsin and with lower chemerin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, resistin, plasma amyloid A1 and adiponectin. The strongest positive relations were between body mass index and adipsin (β 0.247; 95% CI 0.137-0.356) and leptin (β 0.266; 95% CI 0.207-0.324); the strongest negative relations were between body mass index and plasma amyloid A1 (β -0.266; 95% CI -0.386 to -0.146) and visceral adipose tissue and adiponectin (β -0.168; 95% CI -0.226 to -0.111). There was no relation between subcutaneous adipose tissue and adipokines. Odds for the metabolic syndrome were higher with each 1 SD higher hepatic growth factor (OR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06-1.38) and leptin (OR 1.26; 95% CI 1.10-1.45) and lower with each 1 SD higher adiponectin (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.64-0.83) and resistin (OR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74-0.97). The adipokine profile was related to the metabolic syndrome (OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.06). Conclusion Plasma concentrations of adipokines are related to obesity and body fat distribution. The relation between adipokine concentrations and the metabolic syndrome is independent of visceral adipose tissue.

Background In patients with vascular disease, risk models may support decision making on novel risk reducing interventions, such as proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors or anti-inflammatory agents. We developed and validated an innovative model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events for individuals with coronary, cerebrovascular, and/or peripheral artery disease that enables estimation of preventive treatment effect in lifetime gained. Methods and Results Study participants originated from prospective cohort studies: the SMART (Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease) cohort and REACH (Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) cohorts of 14 259 ( REACH Western Europe), 19 170 ( REACH North America) and 6959 ( SMART , The Netherlands) patients with cardiovascular disease. The SMART-REACH model to estimate life expectancy without recurrent events was developed in REACH Western Europe as a Fine and Gray competing risk model incorporating cardiovascular risk factors. Validation was performed in REACH North America and SMART . Outcomes were (1) cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular death) and (2) noncardiovascular death. Predictors were sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, creatinine, number of cardiovascular disease locations, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure. Calibration plots showed high agreement between estimated and observed prognosis in SMART and REACH North America. C-statistics were 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.67-0.70) in SMART and 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.68) in REACH North America. Performance of the SMART-REACH model was better compared with existing risk scores and adds the possibility of estimating lifetime gained by novel therapies. Conclusions The externally validated SMART-REACH model could be used for estimation of anticipated improvements in life expectancy without recurrent cardiovascular events in individual patients with cardiovascular disease in Western Europe and North America.

Objective: Methylglyoxal (MGO) is a reactive dicarbonyl compound and a potential key player in diabetic cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether plasma MGO levels are associated with CVD in type 2 diabetes is unknown., Research Design and Methods: We included 1,003 individuals (mean ± SD age 59.1 ± 10.5 years, 69.3% male, and 61.6% with prior CVD) with type 2 diabetes from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort (SMART). We measured plasma MGO levels and two other dicarbonyls (glyoxal [GO] and 3-deoxyglucosone [3-DG]) at baseline with mass spectrometry. Median follow-up of CVD events was 8.6 years. Data were analyzed with Cox regression with adjustment for sex, age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HbA 1c , BMI, prior CVD, and medication use. Hazard ratios are expressed per SD Ln-transformed dicarbonyl., Results: A total of 287 individuals suffered from at least one CVD event ( n = 194 fatal events, n = 146 myocardial infarctions, and n = 72 strokes); 346 individuals died, and 60 individuals underwent an amputation. Higher MGO levels were associated with total (hazard ratio 1.26 [95% CI 1.11-1.42]) and fatal (1.49 [1.30-1.71]) CVD and with all-cause mortality (1.25 [1.11-1.40]), myocardial infarction (1.22 [1.02-1.45]), and amputations (1.36 [1.05-1.76]). MGO levels were not apparently associated with stroke (1.03 [0.79-1.35]). Higher GO levels were significantly associated with fatal CVD (1.17 [1.00-1.37]) but not with other outcomes. 3-DG was not significantly associated with any of the outcomes., Conclusions: Plasma MGO and GO levels are associated with cardiovascular mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Influencing dicaronyl levels may therefore be a target to reduce CVD in type 2 diabetes., (© 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Objective: In clinical trials, treatment with fenofibrate did not reduce the incidence of major cardiovascular events (MCVE) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, treatment effects reported by trials comprise patients who respond poorly and patients who respond well to fenofibrate. Our aim was to use statistical modeling to estimate the expected treatment effect of fenofibrate for individual patients with T2DM., Research Design and Methods: To estimate individual risk, the FIELD risk model, with 5-year MCVE as primary outcome, was externally validated in T2DM patients from ACCORD and the SMART observational cohort. Fenofibrate treatment effect was estimated in 17,142 T2DM patients from FIELD, ACCORD, and SMART. Individual treatment effect, expressed as absolute risk reduction (ARR), is the difference between treated and untreated MCVE risk. Results were stratified for patients with and without dyslipidemia (i.e., high triglycerides and low LDL cholesterol)., Results: External validation of the FIELD risk model showed good calibration and moderate discrimination in ACCORD (C-statistic 0.67 [95% CI 0.65-0.69]) and SMART (C-statistic 0.66 [95% CI 0.63-0.69]). Median 5-year MCVE risk in all three studies combined was 6.7% (interquartile range [IQR] 4.0-11.7) in patients without ( N = 13,224) and 9.4% (IQR 5.4-16.1%) in patients with ( N = 3,918) dyslipidemia. The median ARR was 2.15% (IQR 1.23-3.68) in patients with dyslipidemia, corresponding with a number needed to treat (NNT) of 47, and 0.22% (IQR 0.13-0.38) in patients without dyslipidemia (NNT 455)., Conclusions: In individual patients with T2DM, there is a wide range of absolute treatment effect of fenofibrate, and overall the fenofibrate treatment effect was larger in patients with dyslipidemia. The method of individualized treatment effect prediction of fenofibrate on MCVE risk reduction in T2DM can be used to guide clinical decision making., (© 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Objective: Expressing therapy benefit from a lifetime perspective, instead of only a 10-year perspective, is both more intuitive and of growing importance in doctor-patient communication. In cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, lifetime estimates are increasingly accessible via online decision tools. However, it is unclear what gain in life expectancy is considered meaningful by those who would use the estimates in clinical practice. We therefore quantified lifetime and 10-year benefit thresholds at which physicians and patients perceive statin and antihypertensive therapy as meaningful, and compared the thresholds with clinically attainable benefit., Design: Cross-sectional study., Settings: (1) continuing medical education conference in December 2016 for primary care physicians;(2) information session in April 2017 for patients., Participants: 400 primary care physicians and 523 patients in the Netherlands., Outcome: Months gain of CVD-free life expectancy at which lifelong statin therapy is perceived as meaningful, and months gain at which 10 years of statin and antihypertensive therapy is perceived as meaningful. Physicians were framed as users for lifelong and prescribers for 10-year therapy., Results: Meaningful benefit was reported as median (IQR). Meaningful lifetime statin benefit was 24 months (IQR 23-36) in physicians (as users) and 42 months (IQR 12-42) in patients willing to consider therapy. Meaningful 10-year statin benefit was 12 months (IQR 10-12) for prescribing (physicians) and 14 months (IQR 10-14) for using (patients). Meaningful 10-year antihypertensive benefit was 12 months (IQR 8-12) for prescribing (physicians) and 14 months (IQR 10-14) for using (patients). Women desired greater benefit than men. Age, CVD status and co-medication had minimal effects on outcomes., Conclusion: Both physicians and patients report a large variation in meaningful longevity benefit. Desired benefit differs between physicians and patients and exceeds what is clinically attainable. Clinicians should recognise these discrepancies when prescribing therapy and implement individualised medicine and shared decision-making. Decision tools could provide information on realistic therapy benefit., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Background: As proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) monoclonal antibodies are entering the market, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibition added to standard lipid-lowering therapy in patient groups at high risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE)., Methods: A lifetime Markov Model was designed to estimate healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PCSK9 inhibition added to standard therapy in patients with Familial Hypercholesterolemia (FH), patients with vascular disease at high MACE recurrence risk, and patients with vascular disease with diabetes mellitus. The balance between costs and health outcomes was established for a broad range of potential relative risk reductions and drug costs., Results: The expected QALY gain per patient and ICER in the main scenario were 1.4 QALYs for €78,485/QALY gained in patients with FH, 0.22 QALYs for €176,735/QALY gained in those with vascular disease and a predicted risk of MACE ≥30% in 10years, and 0.22 QALYs for €295,543/QALY gained in those with vascular disease and diabetes. Results were sensitive to assumptions on PCSK9 inhibitor treatment efficacy, and vascular event risks., Conclusion: The costs and effects of PCSK9 inhibition added to standard lipid-lowering treatment in patient groups at high risk for MACE can be estimated and adapted to a specific clinical setting. PCSK9 inhibition could be cost-effective in patients with FH. In patients with vascular disease PCSK9 inhibition is less cost-effective, however, a price development may change clinical practice. This model may aid treatment and reimbursement decisions regarding PCSK9 inhibitors., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: To quantify the decline in recurrent major cardiovascular events (MCVE) risk in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease between 1996 and 2014 and to assess whether the improvements in recurrent MCVE-risk can be explained by reduced prevalence of risk factors, more medication use and less subclinical atherosclerosis., Methods and Results: The study was conducted in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort in patients entering the cohort in the period 1996-2014. The prevalence of risk factors and subclinical atherosclerosis was measured at baseline. Incidence rates per 100person-years for recurrent MCVE (including stroke, myocardial infarction, retinal bleeding, retinal infarction, terminal heart failure, sudden death, fatal rupture of abdominal aneurysm) were calculated, stratified by the year of study enrolment. For the attributable risk of changes in risk factors, risk factor treatment, and subclinical atherosclerosis on the incidence rates of recurrent MCVE, adjusted rate ratios were estimated with Poisson regression. 7216 patients had a median follow-up of 6.5years (IQR 3.4-9.9). The crude incidence of recurrent MCVE declined by 53% between 1996 and 2014 (from 3.68 to 1.73 events per 100person-years) and by 75% adjusted for age and sex. This improvement in vascular prognosis was 36% explained by changes in risk factors, medication use and subclinical atherosclerosis., Conclusion: The risk of recurrent MCVE in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease has strongly declined in the period between 1996 and 2014. This is only partly attributable to lower prevalence of risk factors, improved medication use and less subclinical atherosclerosis., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are largely unknown, which has hampered the development of nonsurgical treatments to alter the natural history of disease., Objective: To investigate the association between lipid-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and AAA risk., Design, Setting, and Participants: Genetic risk scores, composed of lipid trait-associated SNPs, were constructed and tested for their association with AAA using conventional (inverse-variance weighted) mendelian randomization (MR) and data from international AAA genome-wide association studies. Sensitivity analyses to account for potential genetic pleiotropy included MR-Egger and weighted median MR, and multivariable MR method was used to test the independent association of lipids with AAA risk. The association between AAA and SNPs in loci that can act as proxies for drug targets was also assessed. Data collection took place between January 9, 2015, and January 4, 2016. Data analysis was conducted between January 4, 2015, and December 31, 2016., Exposures: Genetic elevation of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG)., Main Outcomes and Measures: The association between genetic risk scores of lipid-associated SNPs and AAA risk, as well as the association between SNPs in lipid drug targets (HMGCR, CETP, and PCSK9) and AAA risk., Results: Up to 4914 cases and 48 002 controls were included in our analysis. A 1-SD genetic elevation of LDL-C was associated with increased AAA risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.66; 95% CI, 1.41-1.96; P = 1.1 × 10-9). For HDL-C, a 1-SD increase was associated with reduced AAA risk (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.55-0.82; P = 8.3 × 10-5), whereas a 1-SD increase in triglycerides was associated with increased AAA risk (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.38-2.07; P = 5.2 × 10-7). In multivariable MR analysis and both MR-Egger and weighted median MR methods, the association of each lipid fraction with AAA risk remained largely unchanged. The LDL-C-reducing allele of rs12916 in HMGCR was associated with AAA risk (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98; P = .009). The HDL-C-raising allele of rs3764261 in CETP was associated with lower AAA risk (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.94; P = 3.7 × 10-7). Finally, the LDL-C-lowering allele of rs11206510 in PCSK9 was weakly associated with a lower AAA risk (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-1.00; P = .04), but a second independent LDL-C-lowering variant in PCSK9 (rs2479409) was not associated with AAA risk (OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.92-1.02; P = .28)., Conclusions and Relevance: The MR analyses in this study lend support to the hypothesis that lipids play an important role in the etiology of AAA. Analyses of individual genetic variants used as proxies for drug targets support LDL-C lowering as a potential effective treatment strategy for preventing and managing AAA.

Objectives: A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations., Methods: 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication., Results: Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75)., Conclusions: The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in acute ischemic stroke can occur as a result of reperfusion treatment. While withholding treatment may be warranted in patients with increased risk of HT, prediction of HT remains difficult. Nonlinear regression analysis can be used to estimate blood-brain barrier permeability (BBBP). The aim of this study was to identify a combination of clinical and imaging variables, including BBBP estimations, that can predict HT., Materials and Methods: From the Dutch acute stroke study, 545 patients treated with intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator and/or intra-arterial treatment were selected, with available admission extended computed tomography (CT) perfusion and follow-up imaging. Patient admission treatment characteristics and CT imaging parameters regarding occlusion site, stroke severity, and BBBP were recorded. HT was assessed on day 3 follow-up imaging. The association between potential predictors and HT was analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. To compare the added value of BBBP, areas under the curve (AUCs) were created from 2 models, with and without BBBP., Results: HT occurred in 57 patients (10%). In univariate analysis, older age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.006-1.05), higher admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.08-1.18), higher clot burden (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.16-1.41), poor collateral score (OR 3.49, 95% CI 1.85-6.58), larger Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score cerebral blood volume deficit size (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.14-1.38), and increased BBBP (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.46-3.37) were associated with HT. In multivariate analysis with age and admission NIHSS, the addition of BBBP did not improve the AUC compared to both independent predictors alone (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.83)., Conclusion: BBBP predicts HT but does not improve prediction with age and admission NIHSS., (© 2018 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.)