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A two-factor account has been proposed as an explanatory model for the formation and maintenance of delusions. The first factor refers to a neurocognitive process leading to a significant change in subjective experience; the second factor has been regarded as a failure in hypothesis evaluation characterized by an impairment in metacognitive ability. This study was focused on the assessment of metacognition in patients with schizophrenia. The aims of the study were to measure the overconfidence in metacognitive judgments through the prediction of word list recall and to analyze the correlation between basic neurocognition (memory and executive function) and metacognition through a metamemory test and the severity of psychotic symptoms., Method: Fifty-one participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia were evaluated. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was used to assess the severity of psychiatric symptoms, and the subtest of metamemory included in the Executive Functions and Frontal Lobe-2 battery (BANFE-2) was used to evaluate overconfidence and underestimation errors, intrusion and perseverative response, total volume of recall, and Brief Functioning Assessment Scale (FAST) for social functioning., Results: The strongest correlation is observed between overconfidence errors and the positive factor of the PANSS (r = 0.774, p < 0.001). For the enter model in the multiple linear regression (r = 0.78, r 2 = 0.61; F = 24.57, p < 0.001), the only significant predictor was overconfidence errors., Conclusion: Our results highlight the relevance of a metacognitive bias of overconfidence, strongly correlated with psychotic symptoms, and support the hypothesis that metacognitive defects contribute to the failure to reject contradictory evidence. From our perspective, these findings align with current mechanistic models of schizophrenia that focus on the role of the prefrontal cortex.

Behavioural finance invalidates the rationalistic assumptions of the efficient market hypothesis by proposing a realistic explanation for overreaction and underreaction. These phenomena are caused by investors making financial decisions based on their emotions without realizing them. This study attempts to establish the effect of investors' emotional intelligence on behavioural biases, namely, herding, overconfidence bias, and disposition effects, and its consequences for the churning frequency of mutual fund portfolios. This quantitative cross-sectional study was undertaken to collect data from 499 mutual fund investors using a self-administered questionnaire. We found that the disposition effect has a negative impact and that overconfidence bias positively affects the churning frequency of mutual fund portfolios. Furthermore, emotional intelligence, particularly its subconstructs, affects herding bias and overconfidence bias, ultimately impacting the churning frequency of investors. An investor with a higher level of self-motivation is likely to have a disposition effect and herding bias. Investors with disposition impact may be encouraged to reorganize their portfolio if there are any schemes that have been providing negative returns for more than two years or that are not projected to offer significant returns in the future. By understanding how they stack up on each emotional intelligence metric, investors and financial advisors may focus on avoiding the biases that could jeopardize long-term portfolio returns., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest There are no conflicting interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

A new functional deficit caused by a stroke can be understood as a situation of uncertainty that has to prompt deficit discovery and subsequent incorporation into an altered self-perception. Anosognosia for visual field deficits is frequent after stroke. For hemiplegia, patients' performance in a riddle test provided evidence that the inability to generate and adjust beliefs in face of uncertainty contributes to anosognosia for hemiplegia. In this prospective study, the same riddles are used in patients with homonymous hemianopia due to a first-ever stroke in the posterior cerebral artery territory and in an age-matched control cohort. The riddles create a situation of uncertainty that is resolved with five successive clues which progressively delimit the target word. After each clue, patients have to guess the target word and rate their confidence in the answer's correctness. Patients were tested once during the hospital stay. According to the Bisiach score for anosognosia, 12 out of 29 patients were unaware of their visual field deficits. All patients with anosognosia for hemianopia had right hemisphere lesions. Patients with and without anosognosia did not differ significantly in global cognitive impairment, mental flexibility or memory function. Importantly, patients with anosognosia showed higher confidence ratings than patients without anosognosia and controls in the first two clues (situations of uncertainty). This was demonstrated by a significant interaction effect in a mixed ANOVA with the factors group (anosognosia, nosognosia, controls) and riddle clues. An exploratory lesion subtraction analysis showed a high proportion of deficit unawareness in patients with lesions in the right fusiform and (para)hippocampal gyri. Our findings suggest that overconfidence in situations of uncertainty might contribute to the appearance of anosognosia for hemianopia. Because this has been demonstrated before in anosognosia for hemiplegia, we suggest that overconfidence is a supra-modal contributor to deficit unawareness., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This study aimed to examine how soccer referees make decisions about issuing yellow cards for fouls. The research involved 60 male participants, divided into expert ( n =30) and novice ( n =30) groups based on their experience and qualifications as referees. They took part in a 2×2×2 mixed-design experiment. The study looked at Decision-Making Style (DMS: Analytical Decision-Making [ADM] vs. Intuitive Decision-Making [IDM]), Video Type (yellow card foul vs. non-yellow card foul), and Referee Level (expert vs. novice) as independent variables. The dependent variables were accuracy rate (ACC), discrimination index (D), self-confidence index (C), and overconfidence index (OC). The findings showed that Analytical Decision-Making (ADM) led to higher accuracy compared to Intuitive Decision-Making (IDM). Expert referees demonstrated better accuracy than novice referees. There was also an interaction between Decision-Making Style and Referee Level, showing differences in the effectiveness of ADM and IDM between expert and novice referees. Additionally, the study revealed that both expert and novice referees showed overconfidence, with experts demonstrating significantly higher overconfidence, particularly during IDM. In conclusion, the research highlighted the complexity of referees' decision-making in high-pressure situations and emphasized the potential benefits of employing Analytical Decision-Making strategies. The study contributed to understanding cognitive biases in sports officiating and suggested the need for targeted training programs to help referees improve their performance and reduce overconfidence in challenging situations., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Wang, Zhang, Ji, Li and Wang.)

Background: Undergraduate training in hand hygiene is a keystone of infection control. Several studies have shown overconfidence effects in hand hygiene practices, which can impair metacognition. We hypothesized that overconfidence might be prevalent in the early education stages of nursing students and that these effects could be reduced through frequent interactive learning formats, such as learning groups., Methods: We conducted a multicenter cross-sectional questionnaire with 196 German nursing students, including general, surgical, and anesthetic nursing specializations., Results: Overconfidence was observed in nursing students across all specialties and years of education. The cluster analyses showed three different types of learners: two characterized by overconfidence and one demonstrating justifiable confidence. Furthermore, the moderation analysis indicated that providing feedback and promoting metacognition regarding students' learning achievements could mitigate overplacement, particularly through the frequent implementation of interactive teaching formats., Discussion: Despite some limitations, these findings highlight the prevalence of overconfidence effects in nursing students, the presence of different learning profiles, and the importance of incorporating feedback within interactive learning formats concerning hand hygiene. Accordingly, educators need to be trained and supervised to deliver these learning formats and provide feedback to students effectively., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Following the conjecture made by (Bliznashki and Hristova in Appetite 167:105645, 2021), we test the hypothesis that liberal subjective decision criteria exhibited during a task involving discrimination between random and systematically correlated patterns should be associated with elevated levels of paranoid ideations. Study 1 establishes the proposed association in the presence of several control measures while also demonstrating that the relationship in question is significantly moderated by subjects' working memory spans and tendencies to be overconfident in their judgments. Study 2 provides further evidence that these effects are indeed specific to tasks involving discrimination between random and systematic patterns and that the observed results are not due to some form of (anti) acquiescence bias or other general trends. Certain specifics of the correlation matrices involving cognitive measures significantly related to the paranoia continuum suggest that our results are consistent with the Entropic Brain Hypothesis. Finally, a simulation study employing a Neural Network demonstrates that increased entropy and liberal decision criteria might be connected to each other with said connection being amenable to an interpretation within the Bayesian paradigm., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Marta Olivetti Belardinelli.)

Overestimation and miscalibration increase with a decrease in performance. This finding has been attributed to a common factor: participants' knowledge and skills about the task performed. Researchers proposed that the same knowledge and skills needed for performing well in a test are also required for accurately evaluating one's performance. Thus, when people lack knowledge about a topic they are tested on, they perform poorly and do not know they did so. This is a compelling explanation for why low performers overestimate themselves, but such increases in overconfidence can also be due to statistical artifacts. Therefore, whether overestimation indicates lack of awareness is debatable, and additional studies are needed to clarify this issue. The present study addressed this problem by investigating the extent to which students at different levels of performance know that their self-estimates are biased. We asked 653 college students to estimate their performance in an exam and subsequently rate how confident they were that their self-estimates were accurate. The latter judgment is known as second-order judgments (SOJs) because it is a judgment of a metacognitive judgment. We then looked at whether miscalibration predicts SOJs per quartile. The findings showed that the relationship between miscalibration and SOJs was negative for high performers and positive for low performers. Specifically, for low performers, the less calibrated their self-estimates were the more confident they were in their accuracy. This finding supports the claim that awareness of what one knows and does not know depends in part on how much one knows., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Coutinho, Thomas, Fredricks-Lowman, Alkaabi and Couchman.)

It is generally assumed that decision-makers appear more competent and trustworthy when exuding confidence in their choices. However, many decisions are by their nature uncertain. Is it possible for a decision-maker to admit uncertainty and still be trusted? We propose that the communicated type of uncertainty may matter. Internal uncertainty, which signals lack of knowledge or a low degree of belief, may be viewed more negatively than external uncertainty, which is associated with randomness and complexity. The results of a series of experiments suggested that people viewed leaders as more competent when they expressed uncertainty about a decision in external ("It is uncertain") rather than internal terms ("I am uncertain"), overall effect size d  = 0.45 [0.16, 0.74]. Paradoxically, when asked directly, participants expressed that leaders should be open about uncertainty rather than exuding confidence and downplaying uncertainty. A final study suggested that decision makers were more willing to reveal uncertainty about a choice to others when they perceived the uncertainty as more external and less internal and expected more positive and fewer negative consequences from expressing external rather than internal uncertainty., Competing Interests: Declaration of conflicting interestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Introduction: Despite high vulnerability to infection, hand disinfection compliance in emergencies is low. This is regularly justified as the disinfection procedure delays life support, and instead, wearing disposable gloves is preferred. Simulation studies showed higher achievable compliance than detected in real-life situations. This study aimed to explore healthcare providers' attitudes toward hand disinfection and using gloves in emergencies., Methods: We conducted an anonymous online survey in Germany on the attitude and subjective behavior in the five moments of hand hygiene in a closed environment and an open convenience sampling survey. Statistics included paired student's t -tests corrected for multiple testing. For qualitative analysis, we employed a single-coder approach., Results: In 400 participants, we detected low priority of WHO-1 (before touching a patient) and WHO-2 (before clean/aseptic procedure) hand hygiene moments, despite knowing the risks of omission of hand disinfection. For all moments, self-assessment exceeded the assessment of colleagues ( p < 0.001). For WHO-3, we detected a lower disinfection priority for wearing gloves compared to contaminated bare hands. Qualitative analyses revealed five themes: basic conditions, didactic implementations, cognitive load, and uncertainty about feasibility and efficacy., Discussion: Considering bias, the study's subjective nature, the unknown role of emergency-related infections contributing to hospital-acquired infections, and different experiences of healthcare providers, we conclude that hand disinfection before emergencies is de-prioritized and justified by the emergency situation regardless of the objective feasibility., Conclusion: This study reveals subjective and objective barriers to implementation of WHO-1 and WHO-2 moments of hand disinfection to be further evaluated and addressed in educational programs., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Introduction: Cyberbullying is a commonly-seen and hotly-debated social topic around the globe. This negative behavior is the source of many disastrous events, and so leading government bodies, organizations, schools and social communities attach great importance to addressing this topic. However, there is still much work to do in order to be clear about the causes of cyberbullying., Methods: The previous research cases were mostly viewed from the victims' perspectives; however, there is no comprehensive understanding of the perpetrators' viewpoints. Therefore, based on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) and analysis of discussion in the literature, the following six variables were chosen as the focus of this study: overconfidence, excessive moral sense, cyberbullying, perceived value, happiness, and continued cyberbullying intention. This study established a research model of continued cyberbullying intention, which was verified by Structural Equation Modeling. In order to achieve the aims of the study, Chinese university students with an average age of 20.29 ( SD  = 1.43) were recruited as participants, from whom 1,048 valid questionnaires were collected., Results: The research results are as follows: 1. Overconfidence and excessive moral sense positively predicted cyberbullying behaviors; 2. Overconfidence positively predicted excessive moral sense; 3. Cyberbullying positively predicted perceived value and sense of happiness; and 4. Perceived value and sense of happiness positively predicted continued cyberbullying intentions., Conclusion: Students' biased self-perception significantly predicts their cyberbullying behaviors and continued cyberbullying intention. What is more, it is interesting to learn that perpetrators will continue to exhibit cyberbullying behaviors when they believe that what they do (cyberbullying) is valuable or allows them to experience positive feelings; this requires our attention., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Ye, Yang, Nong, Wang and Lee.)

Lackner et al. found science overconfidence peaks at intermediate levels of knowledge. Those with intermediate knowledge also hold the most negative attitudes toward scientists. In doing so, they provide a novel measure of overconfidence that measures the tendency to give incorrect answers as opposed to answering, 'I don't know'., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests None to declare., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Literature suggest that physicians' high level of confidence has a negative impact on medical decisions, and this may lead to medical errors. Experimental research is lacking; however, this study investigated the effects of high confidence on diagnostic accuracy., Methods: Forty internal medicine residents from different hospitals in Saudi Arabia were divided randomly into two groups: A high-confidence group as an experimental and a low-confidence group acting as a control. Both groups solved each of eight written complex clinical vignettes. Before diagnosing these cases, the high-confidence group was led to believe that the task was easy, while the low-confidence group was presented with information from which it could deduce that the diagnostic task was difficult. Level of confidence, response time, and diagnostic accuracy were recorded., Results: The participants in the high-confidence group had a significantly higher confidence level than those in the control group: 0.75 compared to 0.61 (maximum 1.00). However, neither time on task nor diagnostic accuracy significantly differed between the two groups., Conclusion: In the literature, high confidence as one of common cognitive biases has a strong association with medical error. Even though the high-confidence group spent somewhat less time on the cases, suggesting potential premature decision-making, we failed to find differences in diagnostic accuracy. It is suggested that overconfidence should be studied as a personality trait rather than as a malleable characteristic., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests in this work., (© 2024 Al-Maghrabi et al.)

In the contemporary globalized landscape characterized by international and intercultural decision-making processes, interconnected supply chains, and diverse customer relations, susceptibility to biases and heuristics poses a substantial threat to the efficiency of decision making. This research explores the relatively understudied influence of culture on individuals' susceptibility to concepts derived from behavioral economics. Employing the Individual Cultural Values Scale (CVSCALE), we examine the impact of culture on the allure of choice, mental accounting, and overconfidence among 837 participants from Australia (AU), China (CN), Germany (GE), and the United States (US) through logistic regression analysis. At the individual level, discernible interactions between power-distance, allure of choice, and overconfidence are observed. On the national scale, power-distance (AU, US), uncertainty avoidance (US), and masculinity (CN) significantly impact the allure of choice, while overconfidence is influenced by power-distance (US) and masculinity (US). Our analysis shows that culture plays a pivotal role in shaping susceptibility to biases and heuristics, thereby influencing decision-making processes. The findings advocate for a culturally differentiated approach to behavioral economics, emphasizing the need to tailor strategies and interventions based on cultural nuances.

This review explores psychological barriers to the acceptance of expert guidance. Specifically, the constructs of epistemic overconfidence, institutional distrust, anti-expert sentiments, anti-establishment orientations, science populism, and conspiracist worldviews are jointly considered as orientations to expertise. I review the state of the literature on their origins, prevalence, and effects on misinformation endorsement and acceptance of corrections. Addressing these psychological barriers requires building trust in institutions, backed by transparent communication and the involvement of community-based, non-expert messengers. As the review synthesizes disparate research strands, it underscores the need for future studies to compare, validate, and consolidate different orientations to expertise, understand causal relationships, and explore generalizability to diverse contexts., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this article., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This article aims to analyze the factors influencing belief in a flat Earth. We focus on Spain, a country that sadly has some of the most relevant figures on this topic in the Spanish-speaking world. After a qualitative analysis of YouTube videos on the main channels on the subject, a survey was carried out on 1252 individuals. The results point to two conclusions. First is the presence of a considerable Dunning-Kruger effect among flat-earthers. There is a significant negative correlation between science literacy-overall and practically all its dimensions-and overconfidence in science in this group. The second, evaluated through a regression tree, confirms that the interaction of low scientific literacy and overconfidence is highly relevant in explaining the belief in a flat earth. Neither factor alone is determinant, but the combination of the two (low scientific literacy and high overconfidence) leads to high levels of flat earth belief., Competing Interests: Declaration of conflicting interestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

When asked to predict how they will perform on an upcoming exam, students are often poorly calibrated, typically in the direction of overpredicting their performance. Research shows that low-performing students' calibration tends to remain poor across multiple tests over the course of a semester. We tested whether these students remain confident in these erroneously high grade predictions across the semester or whether their confidence wanes, suggesting some degree of metacognitive awareness. In two studies, students made grade predictions prior to taking four in-class exams and then rated their level of confidence in their predictions. Results from both studies showed that miscalibration and confidence remained stable across tests, suggesting that low-performing students continued to believe that they would perform well on upcoming exams despite prior evidence to the contrary.

Privacy literacy is recognized as a crucial skill for safeguarding personal privacy online. However, self-assessed privacy literacy often diverges from actual literacy, revealing the presence of cognitive biases. The protection motivation theory (PMT) is widely used to explain privacy protection behavior, positing that whether individuals take defensive measures depends on their cognitive evaluation of threats and coping capabilities. However, the role of cognitive biases in this process has been understudied in previous research. This study focuses on Chinese digital natives and examines the differential impacts of subjective and objective privacy literacy on privacy protection behavior, as well as the role of cognitive biases in privacy decision-making. The results show that there is no significant correlation between subjective and objective privacy literacy, and a bias exists. When privacy concern is used as a mediating variable, there are significant differences in the paths through which subjective and objective privacy literacy influence privacy protection behavior. Furthermore, privacy literacy overconfidence moderates the relationship between privacy concern and privacy protection behavior. The findings confirm the influence of cognitive biases in privacy behavior decision-making and extend the PMT. This study also calls for the government to enhance privacy literacy training for digital natives to improve their privacy protection capabilities., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Ma and Chen.)

The accuracy of judgments of learning (JOLs) is vital for efficient self-regulated learning. We examined a situation in which participants overutilize their prior knowledge of a topic ("domain familiarity") as a basis for JOLs, resulting in substantial overconfidence in topics they know the most about. College students rank ordered their knowledge across ten different domains and studied, judged, and then completed a test on facts from those domains. Recall and JOLs were linearly related to self-rated knowledge, as was overconfidence: participants were most overconfident for topics they knew more about, indicating the overutilization of domain familiarity as a cue for JOLs. We examined aspects of the task that might contribute to this pattern, including the order of the task phases and whether participants studied the facts blocked by topic. Although participants used domain familiarity as a cue for JOLs regardless of task design, we found that studying facts from multiple topics blocked by topic led them to overutilize this cue. In contrast, whether participants completed the rank ordering before studying the facts or received a warning about this tendency did not alter the pattern. The relative accuracy of participants' JOLs, however, was not related to domain familiarity under any conditions.

Background: Health education campaigns often aim to create awareness by increasing objective knowledge about pathogens, such as COVID-19. However, the present paper proposes that confidence in one's knowledge more than knowledge is a significant factor that leads to a laxer attitude toward COVID-19 and hence lower support for protective measures and reduced intention to comply with preemptive behaviors., Methods: We tested two hypotheses in three studies conducted between 2020 and 2022. In Study 1, we assessed participants' level of knowledge and confidence, as well as attitudes toward COVID-19. In Study 2, we tested the relation between fear of COVID-19 and protective behaviors. In Study 3, we used an experimental approach to show the causal effect of overconfidence on fear of COVID-19. In addition to manipulating overconfidence and measuring fear of COVID-19, we also measured prophylactic behaviors., Results: In Study 1, more overconfident participants had a laxer attitude toward COVID-19. While knowledge had an increasing effect on worry, confidence in said knowledge significantly decreased worry about COVID-19. In Study 2, participants who were more worried about COVID-19 were more likely to engage in protective behaviors (e.g., wearing masks). In Study 3, we show that when overconfidence was experimentally diminished, fear of COVID-19 increased. The results support our claim that the effect of overconfidence on attitudes toward COVID-19 is causal in nature. Moreover, the results show that people with higher fear of COVID-19 are more likely to wear masks, use hand sanitizers, avoid crowded places or social gatherings, and get vaccinated., Conclusions: Managing adherence to public health measures is critical when it comes to highly infectious diseases. Our findings suggest that efficient information campaigns to increase adherence to public health measures should focus on calibrating people's confidence in their knowledge about COVID-19 to prevent the spread of the virus., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Hypertension (high blood pressure) is a modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, patients may lack confidence in their understanding of what constitutes normal/healthy blood pressure, potentially affecting intentions to seek necessary care. The American Heart Association defines normal/healthy blood pressure as <120/80 mm Hg, with a 130/80 mm Hg threshold for hypertension diagnosis., Methods: Our US sample ( N = 6,592) included 1,342 adults with hypertension alone and 795 with hypertension and relevant comorbidities (heart disease, kidney disease, and diabetes mellitus). We assessed confidence in understanding blood pressure numbers, knowledge of thresholds for normal/healthy blood pressure ("normal or healthy blood pressure is below . . ."; counting 120-130/80 mm Hg as correct), and intentions to seek care for randomly assigned blood pressure readings of 142/91 (stage 2 hypertension), 132/69 (stage 1 hypertension), or 118/78 mm Hg (normal/healthy blood pressure)., Results: Among nonhypertensive participants, 55% expressed confidence in their understanding of blood pressure numbers, but only 36% knew the upper thresholds for normal/healthy blood pressure. Among participants with hypertension alone, 78% were confident while 47% were knowledgeable. Among participants with hypertension and comorbidities, 81% were confident and 40% were knowledgeable. Participants who were confident (v. not) were more likely to express intentions to act on stage 2 hypertension readings but less likely to express intentions to act on stage 1 readings, even after adjustment for knowledge, hypertension diagnosis, and sociodemographics., Limitations: Confidence, knowledge, and intentions were each measured with 1 question., Conclusions: Independent of knowledge, confidence was associated with greater willingness to act on stage 2 hypertension readings but reduced willingness to act on stage 1 hypertension readings. Interventions aiming to improve hypertension care-seeking behavior should improve confidence in accurate knowledge., Highlights: Hypertension or high blood pressure is a major risk factor for heart disease.Most Americans do not know that normal/healthy blood pressure levels are ≤120/80 mm Hg, yet they are confident that they know this information.Inappropriate confidence in understanding of blood pressure numbers undermines intentions to seek care for stage 1 hypertension blood pressure readings.

This research examines the metacognitive awareness that people have about their reasoning performance in the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). The first two studies compare confidence judgments about the CRT vs. general knowledge (GK) questions. Results show that (1) people are generally able to discriminate between correct and incorrect answers, but this ability is far from perfect, and it is greater for GK questions than for CRT problems. Indeed, and strikingly, (2) incorrect responses to CRT problems are produced with approximately the same level of confidence as correct responses to GK questions. However, (3) even though confidence is high for incorrect responses to CRT problems, it is even higher for correct responses. The results of two additional studies show that these differences in confidence are ultimately related to the conflict that CRT problems pose between intuition and deliberation. These findings have implications for the possibility of implicit error monitoring and dual-process models of overconfidence.

Aim of the Study: Regular refresher skill courses are necessary to maintain competence in basic life support. The utilization of these training programs strongly depends on the motivation to learn. Learning motivation may be affected by overconfidence and clinical tribalism, as they both imply a higher competence compared to others, and therefore, a lower demand for training. This study aimed to assess how overconfidence in basic life support competencies affects learning motivation., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, observational, multicenter, anonymous online questionnaire survey using validated psychometric tests for healthcare professionals in Germany. Further, we tested participants' knowledge and attitude regarding international basic life support guidelines. The study was conducted between March and April 2022, and healthcare providers from 22 German emergency medical services and hospitals at all levels were assessed., Results: Of 2,000 healthcare professionals assessed, 407 completed the assessment (response rate, 20.4%). We confirmed the presence of overconfidence and clinical tribalism (identity differentiation between social groups) among the 407 physicians, nurses, and emergency medical service providers who completed the survey. Three different learning-motivation groups emerged from cluster analysis: "experts" (confident and motivated), "recruitables" (overconfident and motivated), and "unawares" (overconfident and unmotivated). The three groups were present in all professional groups, independent of the frequency of exposure to cardiac arrest and educational level., Conclusions: These findings showed the presence of overconfidence effects and different learning motivation types in individuals learning basic life support, even in instructors., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Overconfidence behavior, one form of positive illusion, has drawn considerable attention throughout history because it is viewed as the main reason for many crises. Investors' overconfidence, which can be observed as overtrading following positive returns, may lead to inefficiencies in stock markets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the presence of investor overconfidence by employing an artificial intelligence technique and a nonlinear approach to impulse responses to analyze the impact of different return regimes on the overconfidence attitude. We examine whether investors in an emerging stock market (Borsa Istanbul) exhibit overconfidence behavior using a feed-forward, neural network, nonlinear Granger causality test and nonlinear impulse-response functions based on local projections. These are the first applications in the relevant literature due to the novelty of these models in forecasting high-dimensional, multivariate time series. The results obtained from distinguishing between the different market regimes to analyze the responses of trading volume to return shocks contradict those in the literature, which is the key contribution of the study. The empirical findings imply that overconfidence behavior exhibits asymmetries in different return regimes and is persistent during the 20-day forecasting horizon. Overconfidence is more persistent in the low- than in the high-return regime. In the negative interest-rate period, a high-return regime induces overconfidence behavior, whereas in the positive interest-rate period, a low-return regime induces overconfidence behavior. Based on the empirical findings, investors should be aware that portfolio gains may result in losses depending on aggressive and excessive trading strategies, particularly in low-return regimes., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2023.)

In China, supply chain finance is still in infancy. However, it is the problems of information sharing, trust transfer, and risk management that have been making it difficult to meet the financing needs of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in supply chain. The emerging blockchain technology, with its unique decentralization, traceability, and other characteristics, has found a digital solution for traditional supply chain finance. Although blockchain has attracted widespread attention and there are more general descriptions of blockchain application areas, there are few researches on the impact mechanisms of blockchain in-depth. Especially in the field of supply chain finance, there is little research on optimal incentive contract in online supply chain finance empowered by blockchain technology. Therefore, this paper explores the influence of blockchain technology maturity on participants, and thus finds the optimal incentive contract in online supply chain empowered by blockchain technology. Because of the mastery of blockchain technology, platforms believe they are well protected against risk and may behave irrationally. Therefore, this paper considers the overconfident behavior of blockchain supply chain finance platform in actual operation, and then applies the principal-agent model and incentive theory to design the incentive mechanism between platforms, banks, and central banks. Finally, numerical analyses show that overconfident behavior and the maturity of blockchain technology have an impact on the optimal decision for the whole supply chain., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

For many intellectual tasks, the people with the least skill overestimate themselves the most, a pattern popularly known as the Dunning-Kruger effect (DKE). The dominant account of this effect depends on the idea that assessing the quality of one's performance (metacognition) requires the same mental resources as task performance itself (cognition). Unskilled people are said to suffer a dual burden : they lack the cognitive resources to perform well, and this deprives them of metacognitive insight into their failings. In this Registered Report , we applied recently developed methods for the measurement of metacognition to a matrix reasoning task, to test the dual-burden account. Metacognitive sensitivity (information exploited by metacognition) tracked performance closely, so less information was exploited by the metacognitive judgements of poor performers; but metacognitive efficiency (quality of metacognitive processing itself) was unrelated to performance. Metacognitive bias (overall tendency towards high or low confidence) was positively associated with performance, so poor performers were appropriately less confident-not more confident-than good performers. Crucially, these metacognitive factors did not cause the DKE pattern, which was driven overwhelmingly by performance scores. These results refute the dual-burden account and suggest that the classic DKE is a statistical regression artefact that tells us nothing much about metacognition., (© 2022 The Authors.)

Introduction: Using survey data to calculate composite financial literacy (CFL), existed studies do not consider the geographical difference of the means of objectively-measured financial literacy and subjectively-perceived financial literacy, i.e., comparative benchmark., Methods: Taking the survey data of National Financial Capability Study (NFCS) for example, we explain why it is more reasonable to use the within-state average rather than the national average of financial literacy as the comparative benchmark to measure CFL. Then we use NFCS 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2018 dataset to comparatively analyze the difference between CFL measured with the two benchmarks., Results: The results of statistical analysis show that there is a great difference among the four groups of CFL measured with the two benchmarks, and 10.7% of respondents are categorized as a particular group of CFL incorrectly for all datasets. Additionally, the findings of spatial distribution analysis unveils that 36, 19, 15, and 6 states have respondents miscategorized in the four groups of CFL for 2009, 2012, 2015, and 2018 respectively, in which the highest proportion of the population miscategorized in a state is up to 49.91%. Finally, we find that several groups of CFL measured with the two benchmarks have significantly different effects on stock market participation behavior., Discussion: Using the national average as a benchmark to determine all the respondents' relative financial literacy levels for different states is not meaningful, and will lose the practical appeal to tackle the regional inequalities of financial literacy among the households. Therefore, we suggest that the within-state average of financial literacy, not the national average, should be taken as the comparative benchmark for identifying the more precise groups of CFL in survey., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Liu, Lei, Lu and Yin.)

Background: One barrier to hand hygiene compliance is overestimation of one's own performance. Overconfidence research shows that overestimation tends to be higher for difficult tasks, which suggests that the magnitude of overestimation also depends on how it is assessed. Thus, we tested the hypothesis that overestimation was stronger for hand hygiene indications with low compliance (i.e., high difficulty), and the hypothesis that self-reported overall compliance based on a single item is higher than based on "5 Moments of Hand Hygiene" (WHO-5) items, since the single item implies an aggregation across indications., Methods: In the WACH trial (German Clinical Trials Register [DRKS] ID: DRKS00015502), a questionnaire survey was conducted among physicians and nurses in nine surgical clinics (general/visceral surgery or orthopedics/trauma surgery) of six German hospitals. Self-reported compliance was assessed both by a single item and the WHO-5-items using percentage scales. These were compared with each other and with direct observations. Relative frequencies of the WHO-5 indications used to calculate the WHO-5-based self-reported overall compliance rate were estimated by a systematized review of the literature (see appendix). In analysis, t-tests, Chi 2 -tests and multiple linear regressions were used., Results: Ninety-three physicians (response rate: 28.4%) and 225 nurses (30.4%) participated. Significant compliance differences between physicians and nurses were found for direct observations and were in favor of nurses, while no such differences were found for self-reports. Across the WHO-5, overestimation showed inverse correlations with observed compliance (physicians: r = -0.88, p = 0.049; nurses: r = -0.81, p = 0.093). Support for the hypothesis that the self-reported overall compliance based on one item is higher than that based on WHO-5 items was found for physicians (M = 87.2 vs. 84.1%, p = 0.041; nurses: 84.4 vs. 85.5%, p = 0.296). Exploratory analyses showed that this effect was confined to orthopedic/trauma surgeons (89.9 vs. 81.7%, p = 0.006)., Conclusion: Among physicians, results indicate stronger hand hygiene overestimation for low-compliance indications, and when measurements are based on a single item versus the five WHO-5 items. For practice, results contribute to infection prevention and control's understanding of overestimation as a psychological mechanism that is relevant to professional hand hygiene., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Introduction: The experience of a second victim phenomenon after an event plays a significant role in health care providers' well-being. Untreated; it may lead to severe harm to victims and their families; other patients; hospitals; and society due to impairment or even loss of highly specialised employees. In order to manage the phenomenon, lifelong learning is inevitable but depends on learning motivation to attend training. This motivation may be impaired by overconfidence effects (e.g., over-placement and overestimation) that may suggest no demand for education. The aim of this study was to examine the interdependency of learning motivation and overconfidence concerning second victim effects., Methods: We assessed 176 physicians about overconfidence and learning motivation combined with a knowledge test. The nationwide online study took place in early 2022 and addressed about 3000 German physicians of internal medicine. Statistics included analytical and qualitative methods., Results: Of 176 participants, 83 completed the assessment. Analysis showed the presence of two overconfidence effects and in-group biases (clinical tribalism). None of the effects correlated directly with learning motivation, but cluster analysis revealed three different learning types: highly motivated, competent, and confident "experts", motivated and overconfident "recruitables", and unmotivated and overconfident "unawares". Qualitative analysis revealed four main themes: "environmental factors", "emotionality", "violence and death", and "missing qualifications" contributing to the phenomenon., Discussion: We confirmed the presence of overconfidence in second victim management competencies in about 3% of all persons addressed. Further, we could detect the same three learning motivation patterns compared to preceding studies on learning motivation in other medical competencies like life support and infection control. These findings considering overconfidence effects may be helpful for safety managers, medical teachers, curriculum developers and supervisors to create preventive educational curricula on second victim recognition and management.

Deception is used by plants, animals, and humans to increase their fitness by persuading others of false beliefs that benefit the self, thereby creating evolutionary pressure to detect deception and avoid providing such unearned benefits to others. Self-deception can disrupt detection efforts by eliminating cognitive load and idiosyncratic deceptive cues, raising the possibility that persuading others of a false belief might be more achievable after first persuading oneself. If people self-deceive in service of their persuasive goals, self-deception should emerge whenever persuasion is paramount and hence should be evident in information sharing, generalized beliefs about the self, and intergroup relations. The mechanism, costs, and benefits of self-deceptive biases are explored from this evolutionary perspective., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement Nothing declared., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Although emerging studies have investigated the effect of air pollution on traffic crashes, it is unclear to scholars whether air pollution affects another road safety problem-traffic violations. To address this gap, the current paper constructs a data set from 1,390,221 traffic violation records of 640,971 drivers from the Wuhan Traffic Management Bureau between January 2018 and December 2018. An ordered logistic regression was conducted to verify our hypotheses. The result shows that PM 2.5 has no overall impact on the severity of traffic violations, but each 1% increase in the daily concentration of PM 2.5 leads to a 1.02-fold increase in the odds of serious inexperience-related violations and a 0.99-fold decrease in the odds of serious overconfidence-related violations. This effect is the strongest in PM 2.5 , followed by NO 2 , and has not been observed in CO and O 3 . In addition, robustness tests indicate that the relationship between air pollution and traffic violations is consistent among the different subsets (e.g., clear weather, no rain and snow, and good visibility). We also provide valuable practical advice for drivers and traffic authorities., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, this study measures the contribution of banks and non-bank financial institutions toward the systemic risk of China. Second, the present study investigates the relationship between CEO power, CEO overconfidence, and systemic risk. This study uses the Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (∆CoVaR) method to measure the systemic risk contribution of firms listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges over a period of 2006-2018. The results show that non-bank financial institutions are systemically more important compared to banks. We employed fixed-effect regression analysis to show that banks with overconfident CEOs increase the firm's systemic risk. The results also confirm that powerful CEOs enhance the contribution of non-bank financial institutions to systemic risk, whereas CEO power's impact was significant only for non-state-owned banks. The findings were further validated by the robustness test results obtained using the two-stage least squares approach. These findings are important for constructing regulations to reduce the contribution of firms to systemic risk., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Chen, Safi and Zeb.)

Epistemically suspect beliefs, such as endorsement of conspiracy theories or pseudoscientific claims, are widespread even among highly educated individuals. The phenomenon of conspiratorial thinking is not new, yet the COVID-19 pandemic, causing a global health crisis of an unprecedented scale, facilitated the emergence and rapid spread of some rather radical health-related pseudoscientific fallacies. Numerous correlates of the tendency to endorse conspiracy theories have already been addressed. However, many of them are not subject to an intervention. In this study, we have tested a model that includes predictors ranging from stable characteristics such as demographics (gender, age, education, and size of the place of residence), less stable general traits such as conservatism and overconfidence in one's own reasoning abilities, to relatively changeable worldviews such as trust in science. A hierarchical regression analysis ( N = 859 participants) showed that included predictors explained a total of 46% of the variance of believing in COVID-19 conspiracy theories, with only gender, overconfidence, and trust in science yielding significance. Trust in science was the strongest predictor, implying that campaigns aimed at enhancing public trust in both science as a process, and scientists as individuals conducting it, might contribute to the reduction in susceptibility to pseudoscientific claims. Furthermore, overconfidence in one's own reasoning abilities was negatively correlated with an objective measure of reasoning (syllogisms test) and positively correlated with the endorsement of conspiracy theories, indicating that the so-called Dunning-Kruger effect plays a role in pseudoscientific conspiratorial thinking regarding COVID-19., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Vranic, Hromatko and Tonković.)

In recent years, the "financial-like" behavior of non-financial enterprises has contributed to the "off real to virtual," which has seriously restricted the virtuous cycle of finance and economy. This study selects non-financial enterprises listed on Chinese A-shares from 2008 to 2019 as the research sample, and empirically analyzes the impact of CEOs' financial background (FB) on the shadow banking business of non-financial enterprises and its mechanism. The results show that: (1) CEOs' FB has a positive effect on shadow banking business of non-financial enterprises; among which, the positive effect generated by non-banking FB is stronger. The conclusions still hold after robustness tests by replacing the measurement of variables, controlling for other shocks, changing the parameter estimation method, and considering the endogeneity problem. (2) The mechanism analysis reveals the positive effect mainly by reducing the level of entity investment by enterprises. (3) The heterogeneity analysis finds that, on the one hand, with respect to the internal micro characteristics of enterprises, the positive effect is more significant in state-owned enterprises, non-manufacturing enterprises, and non-growth stage enterprises. On the other hand, with respect to the external macro environment, the positive effect is more significant in periods of easy monetary policy, in industries with a higher competition or in regions with a better institutional environment. This study reveals the intrinsic mechanism of CEOs' FB and non-financial enterprises' shadow banking business, enriches the study of the influencing factors of non-financial enterprises' shadow banking business, and provides micro-level empirical support to alleviate the "off real to virtual" of the economy., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Yang and Shen.)

Cognitive biases like underinference, the hard-easy effect, and recurrently non-monotonic confidence are evolutionarily puzzling when viewed as persistent flaws in how people learn from environmental feedback. To explain these empirically robust cognitive biases from an evolutionary perspective, we propose a model of ancestral human learning based on the cultural-evolutionary-theoretic hypothesis that the primary selection pressure acting on ancestral human cognition pertained not to learning individually from environmental feedback, but to socially learning task-specific knowledge. In our model-which is inspired by classical Bayesian models-an ancestral human learner (the student) attempts to learn task-specific knowledge from a role model, with the option of switching between different tasks and role models. Suppose that the student's method of learning from their role model is a priori uncertain-in that it can either be successful imitation learning or de facto innovation learning-and the ecological fitness costs of meaningfully retaining environmental feedback are high. Then, the student's fitness-maximizing strategy does not retain their environmental feedback and-depending on the choice of model parameters-can be characterized by all of the aforementioned cognitive biases. Specifically, in order for the evolutionarily optimal estimate of confidence in this learning environment to be recurrently non-monotonic, it is necessary (as long as the environment's marginal payoff function satisfies a plausible quantitative condition) that a positive proportion of ancestral humans' attempted imitation learning was unknowingly implemented as de facto innovation learning. Moreover, an ecologically rational strategy of selective social learning can plausibly cause the evolutionarily optimal estimate of confidence to be recurrently non-monotonic in the empirically documented way: general increase with an intermediate period of decrease., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The author declares that he has no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Procrastination and lack of attention may often hinder the implementation of preemptive actions necessary to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 like washing hands, covering nose and mouth with a mask, and keeping social distance. It is in such "easy" tasks that people (mistakenly) believe that they are better than others. In this paper we test for overconfidence bias in COVID-19 preventive behaviors in Latin America., Methods: Using a phone survey in nationally representative samples from 10 Latin American countries where randomly, half of the sample in each country was asked about self-reported compliance to COVID-19 guidelines, and half about preventive behavior of fellow citizens compared to them; we tested: if the proportion of individuals claiming that others comply with a certain measure "Always more frequent than me" is higher than those stating that they "Never" or "Sometimes" comply with the same measure (i.e. people believe they are better at doing something than what they actually are)., Results: Over 90% of Latin-Americans claim to always wear a mask and sanitize their hands and more than 80% state to always keep social distance. We also find evidence of overconfidence in every behavior - except for keeping distance in public transportation. Moreover, the magnitude of such overconfidence is higher for behaviors such as wearing masks in public or washing hands than for those regarding keeping the 2-m distance., Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to measure overconfidence in COVID-19 preventive behaviors in Latin America. Results show that more effort is needed to encourage people to comply with the regulation when it does not only depend on them: a better organization of closed stores and public transportation are, for instance, crucial to allow social distancing. It also suggests that a reinforcement of basic measures is essential, as individuals report to be performing them more frequently than when they have to think about such behaviors compared to others., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Training in hand hygiene for health care workers is essential to reduce hospital-acquired infections. Unfortunately, training in this competency may be perceived as tedious, time-consuming, and expendable. In preceding studies, our working group detected overconfidence effects in the self-assessment of hand hygiene competencies. Overconfidence is the belief of being better than others (overplacement) or being better than tests reveal (overestimation). The belief that members of their profession are better than other professionals is attributable to the clinical tribalism phenomenon. The study aimed to assess the correlation of overconfidence effects on hand hygiene and their association with four motivational dimensions (intrinsic, identified, external, and amotivation) to attend hand hygiene training. Methods: We conducted an open online convenience sampling survey with 103 health care professionals (physicians, nurses, and paramedics) in German, combining previously validated questionnaires for (a) overconfidence in hand hygiene and (b) learning motivation assessments. Statistics included parametric, nonparametric, and cluster analyses. Results: We detected a quadratic, u-shaped correlation between learning motivation and the assessments of one's own and others' competencies. The results of the quadratic regressions with overplacement and its quadratic term as predictors indicated that the model explained 7% of the variance of amotivation ( R 2 = 0.07; F (2, 100) = 3.94; p = 0.02). Similarly, the quadratic model of clinical tribalism for nurses in comparison to physicians and its quadratic term explained 18% of the variance of amotivation ( R 2 = 0.18; F (2, 48) = 5.30; p = 43) who are less competent with mild overconfidence and higher motivation to attend training, and (3) "unawares" ( n 1 We were able to show that a highly rated self-assessment, which was justified (confident) or unjustified (overconfident), does not necessarily correlate with a low motivation to learn. However, the expert's learning motivation stayed high. Overconfident persons could be divided into two groups: motivated for training (recruitable) or not (unaware). These findings are consistent with prior studies on overconfidence in medical and non-medical contexts. Regarding the study's limitations (sample size and convenience sampling), our findings indicate a need for further research in the closed populations of health care providers on training motivation in hand hygiene.n 2 = 43) who are less competent with mild overconfidence and higher motivation to attend training, and (3) "unawares" ( n 3 = 17) being highly overconfident, incompetent (especially in assessing risks for incorrect and omitted hand hygiene), and lacking motivation for training. Discussion: We were able to show that a highly rated self-assessment, which was justified (confident) or unjustified (overconfident), does not necessarily correlate with a low motivation to learn. However, the expert's learning motivation stayed high. Overconfident persons could be divided into two groups: motivated for training (recruitable) or not (unaware). These findings are consistent with prior studies on overconfidence in medical and non-medical contexts. Regarding the study's limitations (sample size and convenience sampling), our findings indicate a need for further research in the closed populations of health care providers on training motivation in hand hygiene.

Non-ability-based confidence is confidence in one's ability that is not calibrated to actual ability. Here, we examine what psychological factors are associated with possessing more or less confidence relative to one's ability and to what extent genetic and environmental processes contribute to these links. Using data from the Texas Twin Project ( N = 1,588 participants, aged 7-15 years), we apply a latent variable residual approach to calculate non-ability-based confidence as self-rated confidence net of ability on standardized cognitive tests. Non-ability-based confidence was modestly heritable (9%-28%) and strongly positively correlated with the need for cognition, mastery goal orientation, grit, openness, and emotional stability. These correlations were partly mediated by genetic factors (57% of the association on average). This widespread pattern of associations between non-ability-based confidence and several other measures of thinking, feeling, and acting suggest that non-ability-based confidence can be conceptualized as a personality attribute., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting Interests The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Some research suggests people are overconfident because of personality characteristics, lack of insight, or because overconfidence is beneficial in its own right. But other research fits with the possibility that fluent experience in the moment can rapidly drive overconfidence. For example, fluency can push people to become overconfident in their ability to throw a dart, know how rainbows form or predict the future value of a commodity. But surely there are limits to overconfidence. That is, even in the face of fluency manipulations known to increase feelings of confidence, reasonable people would reject the thought that they, for example, might be able to land a plane in an emergency. To address this question, we conducted two experiments comprising a total of 780 people. We asked some people (but not others) to watch a trivially informative video of a pilot landing a plane before they rated their confidence in their own ability to land a plane. We found watching the video inflated people's confidence that they could land a plane. Our findings extend prior work by suggesting that increased semantic context creates illusions not just of prior experience or understanding-but also of the ability to actually do something implausible., Competing Interests: We declare we have no competing interests., (© 2022 The Authors.)

Prior experimental studies have shown that individuals' actual ordering decisions significantly deviate from the theoretical optimum in newsvendor problems and show the robust pull-to-centre (PTC) effect. Several human behaviours have been confirmed to be the causes of the PTC. However, most newsvendor experiments have been conducted in multicultural countries (e.g., the United States and Germany). As there exist mutual influences between culture and behaviour, in this study, we revisit the ordering biases in a monocultural country to examine the robustness of the PTC and whether the causes can still explain this phenomenon. Our results show that the PTC still prevails and heuristics still work. However, overconfidence cannot perfectly interpret the PTC in China for probable inconsistent confidence levels in individual judgments and decisions. Moreover, the "centre" may no longer be the mean demand but the average value of the realised demand. We explain these changes from the perspective of cultural differences. To be more specific, collectivism, holistic style, and Doctrine of the Mean play vital roles in Chinese newsvendors' decisions., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Yang and Cai.)

Key subordinate executives play the role of connecting superiors and subordinates within the top management team (TMT). Based on the heterogeneity of TMT preference, this article takes the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 as a sample to examine whether key subordinate executive governance can affect the short-sighted behavior of CEOs. The empirical result shows that there is a positive relationship between key subordinate executive governance and accounting conservatism, and CEO overconfidence can positively moderate the relationship. The study also shows that there is a significant positive relationship between key subordinate executive governance and accounting conservatism in private enterprises and enterprises with high market competition, that is, the key subordinate executives of these two types of enterprises can better enhance the conservatism under the stimulation of CEO overconfidence. This study contributes to the literature by examining how key subordinate executives affect accounting conservatism and link the prudential attitude of key subordinate executives with the behavioral tendency of CEO overconfidence, which has managerial implications for improving the power balance mechanism of TMT and strengthening the human resource incentive of key subordinate executives., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Wu and Kuang.)

The health risks of the current COVID-19 pandemic, together with the drastic mitigation measures taken in many affected nations, pose an obvious threat to public mental health. To assess predictors of poor mental health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study first implements survey-based measures of health perception biases among Chinese adults during the pandemic. Then, it analyzes their relation to three mental health outcomes: life satisfaction, happiness, and depression (as measured by the CES-D). We show that the health overconfidence displayed by approximately 30% of the survey respondents is a clear risk factor for mental health problems; it is a statistically significant predictor of depression and low levels of happiness and life satisfaction. We also document that these effects are stronger in regions that experienced higher numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our results offer clear guidelines for the implementation of effective interventions to temper health overconfidence, particularly in uncontrollable situations like the COVID-19 pandemic., (© 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

In the workplace, overconfidence is generally considered undesirable as it may increase people's propensity to take risks. In many areas (e.g., aviation, shipping, nuclear control, and driving), risk-taking is detrimental to safety. We hypothesised that decision-makers would be overconfident and, due to group polarisation, decision-making pairs would be more overconfident than single decision-makers. As was predicted, when answering a 24-item general knowledge questionnaire (d = 0.94) and a task exploring how they might reorient themselves if lost (d = 1.93), participants (N = 63) were overconfident about their performance; importantly, participants in pairs (n = 32) were more overconfident on general knowledge (Hedges' g = 0.51) and lost procedures (Hedges' g = 0.52), than were participants who completed the tasks alone (n = 31). The findings imply that in some situations, single decision-makers may exhibit less overconfidence. The safety implications for a number of areas are discussed., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Reports of a meaningful relationship between mental health-related conditions and work productivity measures are relatively common. These, however, are frequently examined for their linearity while ignoring untapped, and potentially rich, non-linear associations., Methods: Following a serendipitous finding of a curvilinear relationship between workplace presenteeism (lowered productivity while at work) and depression, an investigation was undertaken of the association between worklife prevalence measures of presenteeism (measured by the W.H.O. Health & Work Performance Questionnaire) and lifetime prevalence of twelve psychosocial vulnerabilities, encompassing mental health, mental health-related, and addictive conditions. Linear and quadratic (U-shaped) functions were calculated across the "relative" presenteeism measure (self vs. other workers) for each of the 12 conditions., Results: A visual analysis revealed a U-shaped graphic function in all conditions, and excepting anxiety all were statistically significant. In general, increases beyond the lowest ("poorest") level of self-reported comparative productivity were associated with increases in psychosocial stability, but only as far as deemed equality. Beyond that, increases in self-confidence resulted in a reversal, thus returning to a higher level of vulnerability for the condition in question. A cursory scan of five relevant journals indicated that non-linear analyses were often possible, but rarely carried out., Conclusions: This has informative value for our conceptualization of overconfidence, and it begs the question of whether an over-reliance on linear measures has caused us to overlook important curvilinear human relationships. The inclusion of analyses of non-linear functions is suggested as a matter of course for future studies., (© 2020. Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Overconfidence is one of the most ubiquitous biases in the social sciences, but the evidence regarding its overall costs and benefits is mixed. To test the possibility that overconfidence might yield important relative benefits that offset its absolute costs, we conducted an experiment ( N = 298 university students) in which pairs of participants bargained over the unequal allocation of a prize that was earned through a joint effort. We manipulated confidence using a binary noisy signal to investigate the causal effect of negotiators' beliefs about their relative contribution to the outcome of the negotiation. Our results provide evidence that high levels of confidence lead to relative benefits (how much one earns compared with one's partner) but absolute costs (how much money one receives overall). These results suggest that overconfidence creates an inefficient equilibrium whereby overconfident negotiators benefit over their partners even as they bring about joint losses.

We document a memory-based mechanism associated with investor overconfidence. In Studies 1 and 2, investors were asked to recall their most important trades in the recent past and then reported investing confidence and trading frequency. After the study, they looked up and reported the actual returns of these trades. In both studies, investors were biased to recall returns as higher than achieved, and larger memory biases were associated with greater overconfidence and trading frequency. The design of Study 2 allowed us to separately investigate the effects of two types of memory biases: distortion and selective forgetting. Both types of bias were present and were independently associated with overconfidence and trading frequency. Study 3 was an incentive-compatible experiment in which overconfidence and trading frequency were reduced when participants looked up previous consequential trades compared to when they reported them from memory., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Explanations are central to understanding the causal relationships between entities within the environment. Instead of examining basic heuristics and schemata that inform the acceptance or rejection of scientific explanations, recent studies have predominantly examined complex explanatory models. In the present study, we examined which essential features of explanatory schemata can account for phenomena that are attributed to domain-specific knowledge. In two experiments, participants judged the validity of logical syllogisms and reported confidence in their response. In addition to validity of the explanations, we manipulated whether scientists or people explained an animate or inanimate phenomenon using mechanistic (e.g., force, cause) or intentional explanatory terms (e.g., believes, wants). Results indicate that intentional explanations were generally considered to be less valid than mechanistic explanations and that 'scientists' were relatively more reliable sources of information of inanimate phenomena whereas 'people' were relatively more reliable sources of information of animate phenomena. Moreover, after controlling for participants' performance, we found that they expressed greater overconfidence for valid intentional and invalid mechanistic explanations suggesting that the effect of belief-bias is greater in these conditions., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Schoenherr and Thomson.)

The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious threat that produces harm to people around the globe. Prior work has almost exclusively focused on deconstructive consequences of the novel coronavirus, the present research reveals a bright side of the coronavirus outbreak: reduce the overconfidence bias in non-health domains. In Experiment 1, students passed by a trained confederate who was coughing loudly or not and completed a peer-comparison problem measuring their overconfidence bias. The results showed that participants, who were exposed to a salient health threat, displayed a lower level of overconfidence than did participants in the control condition. Experiment 2 recapitulated the effects of public coughing on overconfidence by using a non-student sample and an alternative measure of overconfidence. Across two field experiments, we replicated prior findings regarding sex differences for the overconfidence bias. Taken together, our research suggests that whereas the COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly ravaged nations and economies, the unprecedented crisis offers an opportunity for individuals to counteract their overconfidence in judgment and decision-making., (© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Physicians' overconfidence damages the quality of medical care. Due to their high social status and intense impact on people lives, physicians need to develop strategies to avoid overconfidence. Yet until now, the strategies physicians use to avoid overconfidence have not been explored. This study aimed to identify strategies physicians use to minimize potential overconfidence., Methods: This qualitative study relied on face-to-face semi-structured interviews. Participants were 22 physicians specializing in ophthalmology, gynaecology, rheumatology, cardiology, anaesthesiology, paediatrics, radiology, orthopaedics, otolaryngology, gastroenterology, family and paediatrics. The interviews were analyzed with the grounded theory approach., Results: Analysis of the interviews revealed three prominent strategies physicians use to minimize overconfidence: awareness of the risks of overconfidence, framing a mundane professional identity, and cultivation of a positive self-view through pride based on effort rather than skills., Conclusions: The study demonstrates the on-going nature of establishing physicians' professional identity and implies that it is shaped by a motivation to adapt their identity to fundamental requirements of medical practice. Medical training and education might promote strategies for minimization of potential overconfidence among physicians., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Establishing the way people decide to use or avoid information when making a decision is of great theoretical and applied interest. In particular, the "big data revolution" enables decision-makers to harness the wisdom of crowds (WoC) toward reaching better decisions. The WoC is a well-documented phenomenon that highlights the potential superiority of collective wisdom over that of an individual. However, individuals may fail to utilize the power of collective wisdom as a means for optimizing decision outcomes. Using a random dot motion task, the present study examined situations in which decision-makers must choose between relying on their personal information or relying on the WoC in their decision. Although the latter was always the reward-maximizing choice, a substantial part of the participants chose to rely on their own observation and also advised others to do so. This choice tendency was associated with higher confidence, but not with better task performance, and hence reflects overconfidence. Acknowledging and understanding this decision bias may help mitigating it in applied settings., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s).)

Context: Immunization coverage counts among the priorities of public health services. To identify factors that motivate or fail to motivate patients to update their vaccination status would help to design future strategies and awareness campaigns. Objective: Our aim was to assess the impact of primary care physicians on the immunization status of their adult patients, and to explore possible explanations. Methods: We invited students and collaborators of Geneva University to bring their paper vaccination records to receive an assessment of their immunization status and personalized vaccination recommendations. Participants completed a first questionnaire at the recruitment phase, and a second 2-3 months later. We assessed their immunization status with the viavac algorithms based on the Swiss national immunization plan. Results: Having a primary care physician did not correlate with better immunization status: only 22.5% patients who reported having a physician and 20% who reported having no physician were up-to-date ( n = 432; p > 0.5). A linear regression indicates that the frequency of medical consultations did not affect patients' immunization status either. Even the participants who recently showed their vaccination record to their primary care physician did not have a better vaccination status. We explored possible explanatory factors and found evidence for the patients' overconfidence about their own immunization status: 71.2% of the participants who predicted that they were up-to-date were wrong about their actual status, and 2-3 months after having received their immunization assessment, 52.8% of the participants who "remembered" having received the assessment that they were up-to-date were wrong: they had in fact received the opposite information that they were not up-to-date. This substantial proportion of wrong beliefs suggests that adult patients are unworried and overconfident about their own immunization status, which is likely to induce a passive resistance toward vaccination updating. Conclusions: This study indicates that the vaccination coverage and beliefs of adults about their immunization status is suboptimal, and that primary care physicians need further support to improve their health-protection mandate through routine immunization check-ups. We highlight that the current covid vaccination campaigns offer a rare opportunity to update patients' immunization status and urge physicians to do so., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Papis and Clavien.)