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Brucellosis, a zoonotic disease primarily transmitted through livestock, poses significant health and economic challenges globally. Its increasing incidence in China highlights critical gaps in current control measures, particularly in regions with high livestock movement, where domestic ruminants trade networks elevate the risk of disease transmission. Traditional value chain analyses often provide descriptive mappings of these networks but lack quantitative methods to assess specific risk levels. This study integrates value chain with quantitative risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the risk of brucellosis introduction via cattle imports in Zhijiang. We comprehensively mapped the local cattle value chain, identifying key stakeholders, risk nodes, and critical pathways of infection. Utilizing a stochastic scenario tree model based on local data, we estimated the likelihood of infected cattle entering the region, revealing that unregulated brokers and inadequate quarantine measures significantly contribute to the risk. Our sensitivity analysis confirmed vulnerabilities in existing biosecurity protocols, emphasizing the need for enhanced quarantine measures and reliable testing at high-risk points in cattle trade. By combining value chain insights with quantitative analysis, this study effectively identifies critical vulnerabilities within livestock networks. Our findings lay the groundwork for developing targeted brucellosis prevention strategies in Zhijiang, underscoring the urgent need for strengthened biosecurity and risk management practices., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Broadleaf water milfoil ( Myriophyllum heterophyllum ) is an emerging invasive alien plant in Europe, and thus a priority for European Union (EU)-level surveillance, monitoring, and eradication. This species is native to North America and threatens aquatic ecosystems by creating dense stands that can fill an entire water body, leading to high economic costs and the loss of native biodiversity. Although its presence in Portugal is not reported, the species has already been established in several European countries, including neighboring Spain. In this study, we assessed the risk of invasion by this species in mainland Portugal by jointly considering environmentally suitable areas and the risk of human-mediated introduction. Environmental suitability was estimated using MaxEnt, which relates the known species distribution to climate, topography, and soil variables. The model achieved a mean area under the curve value of 0.96 ± 0.008 and identified the mean temperature of the warmest quarter as the most relevant variable for explaining the species distribution (67.2 %). Predictions from the model indicated that the peaks of suitability values were distributed mainly in temperate climate regions along central and northern coastal areas in Portugal. The risk of introduction was estimated by mapping and calculating the spatial density of the aquarium stores. Jointly considering environmental suitability and risk of introduction, we observed that hotspots at risk of invasion are concentrated on the Portuguese central and northern coasts and in the two main metropolitan areas, Lisbon and Porto. Several risk hotspots fall within protected areas and sites designated under the EU Habitats Directive, comprising water bodies of high significance for maintaining local vegetation and fauna. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of invasion by this species, namely, surveillance and monitoring efforts confirming its absence in the national territory and preventing its future arrival., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Early detection of emerging carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) in food-producing animals is essential to control the spread of CPE. We assessed the risk of CPE introduction from imported livestock, livestock feed, companion animals, hospital patients, and returning travelers into livestock farms in The Netherlands, including (1) broiler, (2) broiler breeder, (3) fattening pig, (4) breeding pig, (5) farrow-to-finish pig, and (6) veal calf farms. The expected annual number of introductions was calculated from the number of farms exposed to each CPE source and the probability that at least one animal in an exposed farm is colonized. The total number of farms with CPE colonization was estimated to be the highest for fattening pig farms, whereas the probability of introduction for an individual farm was the highest for broiler farms. Livestock feed and imported livestock are the most likely sources of CPE introduction into Dutch livestock farms. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the number of fattening pig farms determined the number of high introductions in fattening pigs from feed, and that uncertainty on CPE prevalence impacted the absolute risk estimate for all farm types. The results of this study can be used to inform risk-based surveillance for CPE in livestock farms.

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) caused by H5 and H7 viruses is considered a threatening disease for poultry production due to the possibility of prolonged undetected virus circulation in a poultry flock and its potential to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The occurrence of HPAI may have devastating impact on the poultry industry and has serious economic consequences. The possibility of LPAI virus (LPAIV) being introduced into Poland via import of live poultry from EU countries was considered. The main aim of the study was to quantitatively assess the probability of LPAIV H5 and H7 introduction into Poland (P LPAI ) via this pathway, to evaluate the relative contribution of exporting countries and species of poultry to this probability and to present the spatial distribution of the introduction probability in Poland. To this end, a stochastic multilevel binomial risk model, taking into account uncertainty and variability of input parameter values, was developed. The results of this model indicate that the mean annual probability of LPAIV H5 or H7 introduction into Poland is 0.088 [95 % uncertainty interval: 0.0575, 0.128], which corresponds to, on average, one outbreak every 11 years. The countries contributing most to this probability are Germany, Czech Republic and Denmark. Importations of ducks, chickens and turkeys contribute most to P LPAI , whereas importations of geese and guinea fowl represent a minor risk. The probability of LPAIV introduction is not equally distributed across Poland with the majority of counties having a high probability of LPAIV introduction being located in the Western part of the country. The results of this study can be used to support decision makers on targeted prevention or risk-based surveillance strategies for LPAI., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In recent years, several generic risk assessment (RA) tools have been developed that can be applied to assess the incursion risk of multiple infectious animal diseases allowing for a rapid response to a variety of newly emerging or re-emerging diseases. Although these tools were originally developed for different purposes, they can be used to answer similar or even identical risk questions. To explore the opportunities for cross-validation, seven generic RA tools were used to assess the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland for the 2017 situation and for two hypothetical scenarios in which ASF cases were reported in wild boar and/or domestic pigs in Germany. The generic tools ranged from qualitative risk assessment tools to stochastic spatial risk models but were all parameterized using the same global databases for disease occurrence and trade in live animals and animal products. A comparison of absolute results was not possible, because output parameters represented different endpoints, varied from qualitative probability levels to quantitative numbers, and were expressed in different units. Therefore, relative risks across countries and scenarios were calculated for each tool, for the three pathways most in common (trade in live animals, trade in animal products, and wild boar movements) and compared. For the 2017 situation, all tools evaluated the risk to the Netherlands to be higher than Finland for the live animal trade pathway, the risk to Finland the same or higher as the Netherlands for the wild boar pathway, while the tools were inconclusive on the animal products pathway. All tools agreed that the hypothetical presence of ASF in Germany increased the risk to the Netherlands, but not to Finland. The ultimate aim of generic RA tools is to provide risk-based evidence to support risk managers in making informed decisions to mitigate the incursion risk of infectious animal diseases. The case study illustrated that conclusions on the ASF risk were similar across the generic RA tools, despite differences observed in calculated risks. Hence, it was concluded that the cross-validation contributed to the credibility of their results., (Copyright © 2020 de Vos, Taylor, Simons, Roberts, Hultén, de Koeijer, Lyytikäinen, Napp, Boklund, Petie, Sörén, Swanenburg, Comin, Seppä-Lassila, Cabral and Snary.)

This Technical Report describes the activities developed in the scope of the EU-FORA Fellowship, within the work programme of risk assessment (RA) of exotic disease incursion and spread, developed at Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR). The programme focused on the work carried out in the Generic risk assessment for introduction of animal diseases (G-RAID) project, which brings together a number of different generic RA tools from multiple European partners. The aim of the fellowship was to gain understanding of veterinary import risk assessment by using different RA tools and to learn how different algorithms can be used to calculate disease incursion risks. G-RAID's tools cover a wide range of RA methodologies; from purely qualitative, to semi-quantitative and fully stochastic quantitative methods, which allowed the fellow to understand a variety of algorithms used to produce the final risk estimate. The fellowship programme provided the fellow with the chance to learn in detail about how generic RAs are performed across Europe, understanding how to deal with the uncertainty and variability involved in RAs and the potential problems of data availability and reliability. The fellow made an inventory of publicly available databases on disease occurrence and international trade that could be used for import RA and assessed their quality and usefulness for the different generic RA tools. The programme also provided the fellow the opportunity to perform several import risk assessments using the RA tools of G-RAID. She completed a RA on African swine fever using the MINTRISK model developed by WBVR. Furthermore, she assessed the risk of foot and mouth disease introduction using the Rapid Risk Assessment Tool (RRAT) model developed by WBVR and the COMPARE model developed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). To this end, the fellow completed a short-term visit to APHA, enabling her to have additional training in quantitative RA and to expand her professional network in this area., (© 2019 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority.)

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an unprecedented global development program that involves nearly half of the world's countries [1]. It not only will have economic and political influences, but also may generate multiple environmental challenges and is a focus of considerable academic and public concerns [2-6]. The Chinese government expects BRI to be a sustainable development, paying equal attention to economic development and environmental conservation [7]. However, BRI's high expenditure on infrastructure construction, by accelerating trade and transportation, is likely to promote alien species invasions [5], one of the primary anthropogenic threats to global biodiversity [8]. BRI countries may have different susceptibilities to invasive species due to different financial and response capacities [9]. Moreover, these countries overlap 27 of 35 recognized global biodiversity hotspots [10]. Identifying those areas with high-invasion risks, and species with high invasive potentials within BRI countries, is therefore of vital importance for the sustainable implementation of the BRI, and the development of early, economical, and effective biosecurity strategies [11]. In response, we present here a comprehensive study to evaluate invasion risks by alien vertebrates within BRI. We identified a total of 14 invasion hotspots, the majority of which fall along the six proposed BRI economic corridors, with the proportion of grid cells in invasion hotspots 1.6 times higher than other regions. Based on our results, we recommend the initiation of a project targeting early prevention, strict surveillance, rapid response, and effective control of alien species in BRI countries to ensure that this development is sustainable., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In intra-EU trade, the health status of animals is warranted by issuing a health certificate after clinical inspection in the exporting country. This certificate cannot provide guarantee of absence of infection, especially not for diseases with a long incubation period and no overt clinical signs such as bovine tuberculosis (bTB). The Netherlands are officially free from bTB since 1999. However, frequent reintroductions occurred in the past 15 years through importation of infected cattle. Additional testing (AT) of imported cattle could enhance the probability of detecting an imported bTB infection in an early stage. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of risk-based AT for bTB in cattle imported into The Netherlands. A generic stochastic import risk model was developed that simulates introduction of infection into an importing country through importation of live animals. Main output parameters are the number of infected animals that is imported (Ninf), the number of infected animals that is detected by testing (Ndet), and the economic losses incurred by importing infected animals (loss). The model was parameterized for bTB. Model calculations were optimized to either maximize Ndet or to minimize loss. Model results indicate that the risk of bTB introduction into The Netherlands is very high. For the current situation in which Dutch health checks on imported cattle are limited to a clinical inspection of a random sample of 5-10% of imported animals, the calculated annual Ninf=99 (median value). Random AT of 8% of all imported cattle results in Ndet=7 (median value), while the median Ndet=75 if the sampling strategy for AT is optimized to maximize Ndet. However, in the latter scenario, loss is more than twice as large as in the current situation, because only calves are tested for which cost of detection is higher than the expected gain of preventing a possible outbreak. When optimizing the sampling strategy for AT to minimize loss, only breeding and production cattle are selected for AT resulting in Ndet=1 (median value). Loss is; however, reduced by 75% if compared to the current situation. We conclude that the effectiveness of AT can greatly be improved by risk-based sampling. The optimal sampling strategy for risk-based AT for bTB is highly dependent on the objective of AT. If economic losses are to be contained, AT should focus on breeding and production cattle originating from high-risk countries., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)