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Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy presents a significant health risk in women of reproductive age and their offspring due to severe neurological complications. It is meaningful to assess its global burden and temporal trends., Methods: This study extracted annual incidence cases and rates of ZIKV among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) between 2011 and 2021 from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021, including global level, 21 GBD regions, 5 socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, 7 age groups, and 204 countries and territories. Relative percent change in cases and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence rates were used to quantify the temporal trends., Results: The incidence rate of ZIKV infection exhibited a pronounced peak in 2016 at 174.27 per 100,000 population, with an EAPC of 158.30 % from 2011 to 2016 and -51.86 % from 2016 to 2021 at 3.06 per 100,000 population. And only 5 out of the 21 GBD regions reported ZIKV infection in 2021, predominantly concentrated in Latin America and Caribbean. The outbreaks were primarily concentrated in low-middle and middle SDI regions. In 2021, at the global level, the incidence rates of ZIKV infection among women of reproductive age were similar across different age groups, ranging from 2.41 to 3.39 per 100,000 population. The proportion of ZIKV infection cases was slightly higher in women aged 25-29 and 30-34 years compared to other age groups in 2021, whereas a higher proportion of cases were observed in younger age groups in 2011 and 2016., Conclusions: Women of reproductive age in Latin America and Caribbean continue to face the threat of ZIKV. Regions with lower SDI had a disproportionately severe burden. Future public health strategies should focus on high-risk areas and populations of reproductive age, enhancing surveillance, prevention, and education efforts to further mitigate the public health threat posed by ZIKV., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM., Methods: Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns., Results: In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions., Conclusion: LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest There is no competing interest among authors., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.)

Objectives: This study aims to comprehensively assess how dietary risk factors have influenced the prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in China from 1990 to 2021. The study seeks to provide robust data and scientific evidence essential for formulating effective preventive and control strategies to combat T2DM in China., Study Design: This cross-sectional study conducted secondary analyses using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) to assess the burden of T2DM in China attributable to dietary risks., Methods: The study analyzed age-adjusted metrics related to T2DM, including death counts, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs), using GBD 2021 data, stratified by age and sex. Additionally, Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) were employed to track trends over time., Results: In 2021, the results show that 21.43 % of T2DM-related deaths and 23.51 % of DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors, notably a diet low in whole grains and high in red and processed meats. Over the period from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend in the EAPCs of death rates and DALYs associated with dietary risks in China, suggesting a substantial impact of dietary factors on the burden of T2DM in the country., Conclusion: This study highlights the urgent need for targeted public health interventions to promote dietary changes and reduce the burden of T2DM in China., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of global, continental, and national trends in the prevalence and mortality of prostate cancer (PC), breast cancer (BC), and thyroid cancer (TC). Utilizing 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD2021) data, prevalence and death rates for 2021 were examined, with temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 analyzed via Joinpoint regression. Annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were calculated with 95% CI. Distributive inequalities were quantified using the slope index of inequality and concentration index. In 2021, PC, BC, and TC showed higher global age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) in Europe and America compared to Africa and Asia, while higher age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for PC and BC were noted in Africa. Over the study period, significant global increases in ASPR were observed for PC (AAPC = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.89), BC (AAPC = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.37), and TC (AAPC = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.52). Conversely, ASDR significantly decreased for PC (AAPC = -0.83, 95% CI: -0.92 to -0.74), BC (AAPC = -0.48, 95% CI: -0.56 to -0.39), and TC (AAPC = -0.23, 95% CI: -0.29 to -0.17). Variations were observed across continents and time periods, affecting 204 countries and territories. Higher Social Development Index (SDI) levels were associated with a more pronounced burden of these cancers. The findings highlight significant global heterogeneity in prevalence, death rates, and temporal trends of endocrine cancers, with important implications for epidemiology and public health policies.

Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) has the highest disease burden among all skin diseases. However, reports on AD prevalence trends in China are limited. This study aimed to investigate the time trends of AD prevalence in China from 1990 to 2021 and to explore the age and sex differences., Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2021. We analyzed the annual percentage change in the crude prevalence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of AD from 1990 to 2021 using the Joinpoint model. We predicted the future prevalence of AD from 2022 to 2030 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model., Results: The total ASPR decreased slightly from 1990 (1357.93 per 100,000) to 2021 (1347.11 per 100,000). The ASPR of females (1457.64 per 100,000) was higher than that of males (1247.04 per 100,000) in 2021. The prevalence rate of AD was highest in the under 5 years old age group (3455.56 per 100,000) and the 5-9 years old age group (3360.31 per 100,000). By 2030, the predicted ASPR of AD will be 1394.36 (per 100,000) in males and 1603.69 in females (per 100,000). The predicted prevalence rate in the under 5 years old (3996.14 per 100,000 in males and 3990.68 per 100,000 in females) and 5-9 years old (3714.61 per 100,000 in males and 3963.96 per 100,000 in females) age groups will be higher than those in other age groups., Conclusion: Despite a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend since 2015 in the total AD burden. Given the increasing burden of AD on Chinese children and females, healthcare practitioners should enhance community education, improve disease management abilities of patients and caregivers, and reduce the burden and healthcare costs of AD., (© 2024 European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background & Aims: Acute hepatitis E (AHE) poses a significant threat to global public health, particularly among women of childbearing age (WCBA), who are at heightened risk for severe pregnancy-related complications. This study aimed to delineate the temporal trends and project future incidence of AHE in WCBA, providing insights crucial for targeted prevention and control strategies., Methods: Data on AHE incidence from the Global Health data 2021. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts, and the Bayesian APC model was utilized for forecasting future epidemiological trajectories., Results: Globally, AHE incidence numbers among WCBA rose from 2,831,075 in 1992 to 3,420,786 in 2021, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined from 194.66 to 179.54 per 100,000 with a global net drift of -0.28%. However, high SDI regions showed a contrasting trend with a positive net drift of 0.02%. The age effect was consistent across SDI regions and globally, showing a decrease with advancing age, while unfavorable period and cohort effects were exhibited in high-SDI region. At the national level, locations exhibited varying trends of change. The BAPC model predicted a total of 3,759,384 AHE global cases in WCBA by 2030, with an expected mild increase in the ASIR. The outlook for the management and containment of AHE is grim in certain countries, including India., Conclusions: The study revealed a complex epidemiological landscape of AHE in WCBA, with increasing global incidence numbers juxtaposed against a declining ASIR. The AHE burden by 2030 remain severe among WCBA. Young WCBA and high SDI region merit particular attention. The findings underscore the need for region-specific strategies to curb the projected rise in AHE incidence and align with the 2030 WHO goals., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: This study aims to analyze the variation in mortality burden of aortic aneurysms (AA) and explore the associated risk factors based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, investigating the mortality burden of AA in China., Methods: Using GBD 2019 data, the mortality burden of AA in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to analyze time trends, period, and cohort effects of 4 attributable risk factors of AA by age., Results: In 2019, the total number of AA deaths in China increased by 136.1% compared to 1990, while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased by 6.8%. Male deaths and ASMR were higher than those of females, and ASMR increased with age. Whether viewed overall (Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC): -0.261, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): -0.383 to -0.138) or by sex (female AAPC: -0.812, 95% CI: -0.977 to -0.646; male AAPC: -0.011, 95% CI: -0.183 to 0.162), the ASMR for AA in China has shown a declining trend since 1990. Attributable risk factors such as high blood pressure, a diet high in sodium, smoking, and lead exposure increase AA mortality with age. Smoking mortality peaks between ages 80-85. The cyclical effect of high blood pressure on AA mortality significantly increases, while the cyclical effects of the other three risk factors decrease. For the population born after 1940, the cohort effect of high systolic blood pressure (SBP), a diet high in sodium, and smoking increased, while the cohort effect of lead exposure decreased. The local drift values of high SBP, a diet high in sodium, and smoking decreased, while the local drift value of lead exposure increased. High SBP was identified as the most significant attributable risk factor for AA mortality burden among both males and females, and smoking was another major attributable risk factor, particularly in males., Conclusion: From 1990 to 2019, fatality due to AA in China increased notably, but the ASMR showed a decreasing trend. The mortality rate of AA was influenced by age, sex, and attributable risk factors, with elderly male smokers carrying a heavy burden of death. Moreover, tobacco control and treatment of hypertension should be strengthened to reduce the burden and its impact on AA., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Objectives: This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019., Methods: We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect)., Results: From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85-89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015-2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women., Conclusions: Low dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Liver cancer remains the leading cause of death and public health threat among the Mongolian population. So far, there has been no in-depth analysis to describe the burden of common attributable factors to liver cancer in Mongolia. Therefore, we aimed to explore the most prevalent causes of liver cancer and its trends from 1990 to 2019., Methods: We extracted the primary liver cancer data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to examine the mortality and morbidity of liver cancer by its etiological types, which included alcohol, viral hepatitis B and C, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). The data was extracted by sex and 5-year age intervals from 1990 to 2019. Data included mortality, incidence, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of liver cancer among the Mongolian population., Results: Mongolia had the world's highest age-standardized DALYs for liver cancer (2558.1) in 2019. Alcohol-attributable DALYs (786.6) were 29 times higher than the global average (26.1), and liver cancer due to hepatitis C (752.6) and B (763.2) were 21.5 (35.0) and 10.9 (69.1) times higher, respectively. Over the past 30 years, there has been a steady increase in the incidence and number of deaths caused by liver cancer in Mongolia. In 2019, liver cancer incidence due to alcohol consumption was 3.1 times higher for males than females, and hepatitis B was 2.7 times higher for males than females. However, the incidence of hepatitis C and NASH were slightly higher for females. Deaths from liver cancer accounted for 9.51% (2365) of total deaths in Mongolia in 2019, with a continuously increasing trend in the fraction of death compared to 1990, which was 11 times higher than the global average (0.86%), particularly in females with a 319.6% (95% UI 234.9-435.7) increase observed during the study period. Liver cancer due to hepatitis B, C, and alcohol each shared about one-third of liver cancer deaths., Conclusion: A comprehensive analysis of the burden of liver cancer in Mongolia reveals alcohol use as a primary cause of liver cancer mortality, particularly affecting men and significantly impacting the disease burden. Viral hepatitis continues to pose a major public health concern in the country. Although significant milestones have progressed, addressing the unique demographic and geographical challenges requires tailored approaches for specific target populations. The evidence generated from this analysis is crucial to support policy guidance, contribute to evidence-based decisions, guide public health prevention measures, and amplify population health promotion and disease prevention throughout Mongolia., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Batsaikhan, Chimed-Ochir, Kubo, Jigjidsuren, Delgermaa, Purevdagva, Sarankhuu, Nansalmaa, Tsegmed, Davgasuren, Purev, Mokdad, Weaver, Erkhembayar, Murray and Naghavi.)

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most prevalent liver disease. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 reported a rise in prevalence (9-13%) in Australia, which also ranked third highest for NAFLD prevalence compared to 14 similar countries. As a result of underdiagnosis, NAFLD burden is underestimated by GBD., (© 2024 The Author(s). Internal Medicine Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Royal Australasian College of Physicians.)

Background: Chronic kidney disease(CKD) is one of the most prevalent non-communicable health concerns in children and adolescents worldwide; however, data on its incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and trends in the population are limited. We aimed to assess the global, regional and national trends in CKD burden in children and adolescents., Methods: In this trend analysis based on the 2019 Global Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, CKD incidence, prevalence and DALYs rates per 100 000 population for children and adolescents were reported at the global, regional and national levels, as well as the average annual percentage change (AAPC). These global trends were analyzed by age, sex, region and socio-demographic index (SDI)., Results: Globally, the overall incidence of CKD (all stages including kidney replacement therapy) in children and adolescents showed an increasing trend [AAPC 0.44 (95% confidence interval 0.36-0.52)] between 1990 and 2019. Similarly, the overall prevalence of CKD also showed an upward trend [AAPC 0.46 (0.42-0.51)]. However, the DALYs of CKD showed a continuous decreasing trend [AAPC -1.18 (-1.37 to -0.99)]. The population aged 15-19 years had the largest CKD incidence increase during this period. The largest increase in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was in middle SDI countries [AAPC 0.56 (0.45-0.67)]. The relationship between the ASIR and SDI showed an inverse U-shaped correlation while the relationship between the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) and SDI showed an inverse trend with SDI. Among adolescents (15-19 years), the ASIR continued to increase for five causes of CKD, owing to type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Most of the disease burden was concentrated in countries with a lower SDI. Andean Latin America and Central Latin America showed the largest increases in CKD ASIR between 1990 and 2019., Conclusion: The burden of CKD in children and adolescents has increased worldwide, especially in regions and countries with a lower SDI., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the ERA.)

Objectives: To identify the long-term spatiotemporal trend of ozone-related chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden by sex and country and to explore potential drivers., Methods: We retrieved data of ozone-related COPD death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. We used a linear regression of natural logarithms of age-standardized rates (ASRs) with calendar year to examine the trends in ASRs and a panel regression to identify country-level factors associated with the trends., Results: Global ozone-attributable COPD deaths increased from 117,114 to 208,342 among men and from 90,265 to 156,880 among women between 1990 and 2019. Although ASRs of ozone-related COPD death and DALY declined globally, they increased in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions, with faster rise in women. Elevated average maximum temperature was associated with higher ozone-attributable COPD burden, while more green space was associated with lower burden., Conclusion: More efforts are needed in low and low-middle SDI regions, particularly for women, to diminish inter-country inequality in ozone-attributable COPD. Global warming may exacerbate the burden. Expanding green space may mitigate the burden., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they do not have any conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Wang, Cheng, Xu, Wang, Wang, Feng, Hu and Wang.)

Objectives: This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019., Methods: We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect)., Results: Between 1990 and 2019, global age-standardized CVD mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates attributable to high SSB intake decreased, with larger reductions in high-SDI regions. ASMR declined from 19.5 to 13 per 100,000 (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC): -1.46%) and ASDR declined from 345.8 to 220.6 per 100,000 (EAPC: -1.66%). Age-period-cohort analysis showed CVD deaths and DALYs increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85-89 years. Period effects indicated declining CVD mortality and DALY rates since 1999, especially in higher-SDI regions. Cohort effects demonstrated consistent risk declines across successive generations born between 1900 and 1959. Predictions suggest continuing decreases through 2045 globally, but slower declines in lower-SDI regions., Conclusion: In conclusion, this comprehensive assessment of global CVD burden among older adults attributable to high SSB intake highlights major achievements but also persistent areas needing attention. Favorable declining mortality and DALY rate trends reflect substantial progress in CVD control amid population growth and aging., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Lv, Yang and Yang.)

Hypertension presents a substantial cardiovascular risk, with poorly managed cases increasing the likelihood of hypertensive heart disease (HHD). This study examines individual-level trends and burdens of HHD in the US from 1990 to 2019, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. In 2019, HHD prevalence in the US reached 1,487,975 cases, with stable changes observed since 1990. Sex stratification reveals a notable increase in prevalence among females (AAPC 0.3, 95 % CI: 0.2 to 0.4), while males showed relative constancy (AAPC 0.0, 95 % CI: -0.1 to 0.1). Mortality rates totaled 51,253 cases in 2019, significantly higher than in 1990, particularly among males (AAPC 1.0, 95 % CI: 0.8 to 1.3). Younger adults experienced a surge in HHD-related mortality compared to older adults (AAPC 2.6 versus 2.0). These findings highlight the need for tailored healthcare strategies to address sex and age-specific disparities in managing HHD., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the U.S. is declining in adults 50 years and older; however, recent studies suggest an increasing disease burden among adults under age 50. This study aims to compare the incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) of CRC in EU15+ countries to determine if similar age-stratified occurrences are observed across these countries with similar "Western lifestyle"-related risk factors. Incidence and mortality rates for CRC between 1990 and 2019 were extracted using the Global Burden of Disease database. The data were age-stratified into groups between ages 25-49, 50-69, and greater than 69 years. We observed that the incidence of CRC increased globally for all age groups, with the highest increase observed for males (75.9%) and females (27.7%) aged 25-49. A similar trend was observed in 15 of the 19 EU15+ countries for males and 16 of the 19 EU15+ countries for females aged 25-49. Global mortality rates decreased for all age groups in females but increased for males in all age groups. This raises concerns regarding potentially modifiable risk factors contributing to increased CRC development and underscores the importance of implementing standardized screening at an earlier stage to ensure adequate detection in the younger population.

Background and Aims: The escalating prevalence of IBD within specific age cohorts, 10-24 and 50-69 years, necessitates a refined understanding of its epidemiological patterns. Prior investigations have often been constrained by their limited scope, particularly in employing age-specific analyses and utilizing advanced statistical methods such as joinpoint regression. Our research examines these demographic segments to elucidate the epidemiological trajectory of IBD., Methods: This study analyzed GBD 2019 data on IBD, focusing on age groups 10-24 and 50-69. We integrated the socio-demographic index for socio-economic context and employed joinpoint regression to analyze time-segmented disease trends, prioritizing average annual percent change for a comprehensive view., Results: A notable global decline in IBD incidence, particularly in the 50-69 age group, was observed. The 10-24 cohort, however, presented a marginal rise across three decades, with a discernible decline between 2010 and 2019. The study also revealed pivotal gender disparities, with increasing incidence rates in males, especially in the High-income Asia Pacific region. Conversely, females demonstrated decreasing trends across the board. Regional variations accentuated East Asia's escalated IBD incidence and prevalence, whereas high-income North American and Asia-Pacific regions, along with Europe, reflected the highest age-standardized incidence rates., Conclusion: The burden of IBD between 1990 and 2019 presents notable disparities across different regions and age demographics. While older populations are seeing a decrease in IBD incidence, young adults and adolescents in regions like East Asia and high-income Asia Pacific are experiencing a concerning uptick. This uneven distribution, influenced by both age and gender, underscores the multifaceted nature of IBD's global impact., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Acknowledgements, (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Exposure to ambient ozone pollution causes health loss and even death, and both are the main risk factors for the disease burden worldwide. We comprehensively evaluated the ozone pollution-related disease burden., Methods: First, numbers and age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were assessed globally and by sub-types in 2019. Furthermore, the temporal trend of the disease burden was explored by the linear regression model from 1990 to 2019. The cluster analysis was used to evaluate the changing pattern of related disease burden across Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) regions. Finally, the age-period-cohort (APC) model and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were used to predict the future disease burden in the next 25 years., Result: Exposure to ozone pollution contributed to 365,222 deaths and 6,210,145 DALYs globally in 2019, which accounted for 0.65 % of deaths globally and 0.24 % of DALYs globally. The disease burden was consistently increasing with age. Males were high-risk populations and low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions were high-risk areas. The disease burden of ozone pollution varied considerably across the GBD regions and the countries. In 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs cases increased by 76.11 % and 56.37 %, respectively compared to those in 1990. The predicted results showed that the number of deaths cases and DALYs cases for both genders would still increase from 2020 to 2044., Conclusion: In conclusion, ambient ozone pollution has threatened public health globally. More proactive and effective strategic measures should be developed after considering global-specific circumstances., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Femur fracture is a type of fracture with high disability and mortality. There is no comprehensive analysis and prediction of the global distribution of femur fractures, so we conducted this study., Methods: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and years living with disability (YLDs) of femur fractures (excluding femoral neck) were downloaded from the Global burden of disease database. Trend analysis was performed, and 6 time-series machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the global ASIR, ASPR, and YLDs., Results: ASPR for femur fracture had been increasing in most countries worldwide from 1990 to 2019, with the highest in East Asia (AAPC = 1.25 95%Confidence Interval (1.2, 1.3)) and lowest in Central Latin America (AAPC = -0.74 95%CI (-0.81, -0.67)). However, ASIR showed a significant downward trend worldwide, with East Saharan Africa decreasing the most (AAPC = -4.04 95%CI (-5.56, -2.47)), and East Asia elevating the most (AAPC = 1.11 95%CI (0.87, 1.42)). YLDs were increasing over the world, with East Asia still elevating the most AAPC= (3.9 95%CI (3.85, 3.95)), with the only region of decrease being Eastern Europe (AAPC = -0.28 95%CI (-0.3, -0.26)). Both ASPR and ASIR were higher in women than in men in the >75 year group, whereas YLDs was lower in women than in men in the >60 year group. Globally, the ARIMA model was optimal in the prediction of ASPR, the PROPHET model effected in the prediction of ASIR, and the PROPHET WITH XGBOOST model was the best in the prediction of YLDs. The projections showed increase in both ASPR and YLDs, except for ASIR decreasing by 2030., Conclusions: Our study found a rise in femur fracture ASPR and ASIR from 1990 to 2019 in war conflict areas and East Asia, meanwhile, the YLDs of femur fracture increased in populous countries. In both 1990 and 2019, both ASPR and ASIR were higher in women over 75 years than that in men, but YLDs was higher in men over 60 years than that in women. In 2020-2030, while global femur fracture ASIR might decline, both ASPR and YLDs might rise., The Translational Potential of This Article: Femur fracture is a high-energy injury due to direct violence, and in war, conflicting and underdeveloped regions such as East Asia. Accidental injuries may occur due to the rapid development of industry and the frequent traffic accidents. This study suggests that we should focus on elderly women (≥75 years) in the above regions in the future. For older men (>60 years old), more attention should be paid to post-fracture functional rehabilitation and early reintegration into society to reduce the disability rate and lower the socio-economic burden., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors.)

This study aimed to assess the global spatiotemporal variations of trihalomethanes (THMs) in drinking water, evaluate their cancer and non-cancer risks, and THM-attributable bladder cancer burden. THM concentrations in drinking water around fifty years on a global scale were integrated. Health risks were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and attributable bladder cancer burden was estimated by comparative risk assessment methodology. The results showed that global mean THM concentrations in drinking water significantly decreased from 78.37 μg/L (1973-1983) to 51.99 μg/L (1984-2004) and to 21.90 μg/L (after 2004). The lifestage-integrative cancer risk and hazard index of THMs through all exposure pathways were acceptable with the average level of 6.45 × 10 -5 and 7.63 × 10 -2 , respectively. The global attributable disability adjusted of life years (DALYs) and the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) dropped by 16% and 56% from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, respectively. A big decline in the attributable ASDR was observed in the United Kingdom (62%) and the United States (27%), while China experienced a nearly 3-fold increase due to the expanded water supply coverage and increased life expectancy. However, China also benefited from the spread of chlorination, which helped reduce nearly 90% of unsafe-water-caused mortality from 1998 to 2018., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

What Is Already Known About This Topic?: The global burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is on the rise., What Is Added by This Report?: In 2019, 5.58 million individuals in China were affected by CKD related to hypertension, leading to 70,260 fatalities and 1.69 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most affected groups were men, older individuals, and residents of western China. Over the period from 2010-2019, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) remained constant, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) showed a decreasing trend. However, there was an increase in the number of cases, deaths, and DALYs associated with this condition., What Are the Implications for Public Health Practice?: Hypertension significantly contributes to the burden of CKD; therefore, raising awareness and implementing early screening measures are essential., Competing Interests: No conflicts of interest., (Copyright and License information: Editorial Office of CCDCW, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2024.)

Purpose: This study was based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and aimed to analyze the trend of disease burden for complete edentulism in Chinese adults between 1990 and 2030, and to provide valuable information for the development of more effective management and preventive measures., Methods: Data on Chinese adults with complete edentulism from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using GHDx data. Descriptive analyses were used to analyze changes in the prevalence and burden of complete edentulism, gender and age distribution between 1990 and 2019. In addition, we used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the trend of disease burden for Chinese adults with complete edentulism between 2020 and 2030., Results: The incidence, prevalence, and rate of YLDs in adults with complete edentulism in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the incidence was 251.20 per 100,000, the prevalence was 4512.78 per 100,000, and the YLDs were 123.44 per 100,000, marking increases of 20.58, 94.18, and 93.12% from 1990. Males experienced a higher increase than females. However, the standardized rates decreased over the same period. The ARIMA model predicts a subsequent upward and then downward trend for all indicators between 2019 and 2030, except for the standardized incidence rate which remained essentially unchanged. Specifically, the incidence is predicted to decrease from 388.93 to 314.40 per 100,000, prevalence from 4512.78 to 3049.70 per 100,000, and YLDs from 123.44 to 103.44 per 100,000. The standardized prevalence and YLDs rates are also expected to decrease., Conclusion: The burden of complete edentulism in China is projected to show an increasing trend from 2020 to 2022 and a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2030. Despite the decline in the burden of disease associated with complete edentulism in China, many problems remain to be solved., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Qin, Chen, Yuan, Lin, Liu, Zeng and Ma.)

Background: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the most common acquired heart disease among children in developing countries. However, there is a lack of systematic studies on the epidemiology of pediatric RHD. This study aimed to report the burden of pediatric RHD at global, regional, and national levels between 1990 and 2019, which may provide some reference for policymakers., Methods: The numbers and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood RHD from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). In addition, Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal trends in the burden of childhood RHD., Results: Globally, the number of incidence and prevalence cases of RHD in children increased by 41.89% and 40.88%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.75% and 0.66%, respectively. In contrast, the age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased significantly since 1990 by an AAPC of -3.47% and - 2.65%, respectively. Girls had a significantly higher burden of RHD than boys during the study period. At the age level, the RHD burden was significantly highest in the age group of 10-14 years. Moreover, the ASRs of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were negatively associated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Nationally, Fiji had the most significant increase in incidence and prevalence, and Philippines had the most remarkable rise in DALYs and mortality rates., Conclusion: From 1990 to 2019, although the incidence and prevalence of childhood RHD increased globally, DALYs and mortality rates markedly reduced. Countries with lower levels of sociodemographic development shoulder a higher burden of childhood RHD. Children aged 10-14 years are critical populations for whom targeted measures are needed to reduce the RHD burden, while attention to girls cannot be neglected., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To investigate the association between particulate matter and the incidence, disability, and mortality of stroke, we reported the burden of stroke attributable to particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution, including ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) and household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP), from 1990 to 2019., Methods: We retrieved the detailed data on the burden of stroke attributable to PM 2.5 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and deaths, age-standardized death rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years rates (ASDR) attributable to PM 2.5 were estimated by age, sex, geographical location, socio-demographic index (SDI), and stroke subtypes (ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to assess the trends in ASDR and ASMR during the period 1990-2019., Results: Regarding stroke subtypes, the proportion of ischemic stroke burden is increasing, while intracerebral hemorrhage carries the heaviest burden. Both APMP and HAP contributed the most to stroke-related deaths and DALYs of stroke among the elderly populations and males. The highest ASDR and ASMR of stroke attributable to APMP were in the middle SDI regions, especially in East Asia. For HAP, the highest ASDR and ASMR were in the low SDI regions, mainly in Oceania. From 1990-2019, in terms of the EAPC results, APMP caused an increased burden of stroke, whereas the impact of HAP significantly fell. The most pronounced increase in ASDR and ASMR for strokes attributed to APMP were in the low-middle SDI and low SDI regions, particularly among the 25-35 age group., Conclusions: Stroke attributed to PM 2.5 is a global health problem, and the patterns and trends were heterogeneous across APMP and HAP. Targeted interventions should be formulated for APMP and HAP., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The burden and disability associated with headaches are conceptualized and measured differently at patients' and populations' levels. At the patients' level, through patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs); at population level, through disability weights (DW) and years lived with a disability (YLDs) developed by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). DW are 0-1 coefficients that address health loss and have been defined through lay descriptions. With this literature review, we aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of disability in headache disorders, and to present a coefficient referring to patients' disability which might inform future GBD definitions of DW for headache disorders., Methods: We searched SCOPUS and PubMed for papers published between 2015 and 2023 addressing disability in headache disorders. The selected manuscript included a reference to headache frequency and at least one PROM. A meta-analytic approach was carried out to address relevant differences for the most commonly used PROMs (by headache type, tertiles of medication intake, tertiles of females' percentage in the sample, and age). We developed a 0-1 coefficient based on the MIDAS, on the HIT-6, and on MIDAS + HIT-6 which was intended to promote future DW iterations by the GBD consortium., Results: A total of 366 studies, 596 sub-samples, and more than 133,000 single patients were available, mostly referred to cases with migraine. Almost all PROMs showed the ability to differentiate disability severity across conditions and tertiles of medication intake. The indexes we developed can be used to inform future iterations of DW, in particular considering their ability to differentiate across age and tertiles of medication intake., Conclusions: Our review provides reference values for the most commonly used PROMS and a data-driven coefficient whose main added value is its ability to differentiate across tertiles of age and medication intake which underlie on one side the increased burden due to aging (it is likely connected to the increased impact of common comorbidities), and by the other side the increased burden due to medication consumption, which can be considered as a proxy for headache severity. Both elements should be considered when describing disability of headache disorders at population levels., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: The prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region is alarmingly high, prompting us to investigate the burden and factors contributing to it through the GBD study. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge about the epidemiological status of T2DM in this region, so our aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the burden of T2DM and its associated risk factors., Methods: Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, we calculated the attributable burden of T2DM for each of the 21 countries in the region for the years 1990 and 2019. This included prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors., Results: Between 1990 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence (79.6%; 95% Uncertainty Interval: 75.0 to 84.5) and prevalence (85.5%; [80.8 to 90.3]) rates of T2DM per 100,000 populations. The age-standardized mortality rate (1.7%; [-10.4 to 14.9]), DALYs (31.2%; [18.3 to 42.2]), and years lived with disability (YLDs) (82.6%; [77.2 to 88.1]) also increased during this period. Modifiable risk factors, such as high body mass index (56.4%; [42.8 to 69.8]), low physical activity (15.5%; [9.0 to 22.8]), and ambient particulate matter pollution (20.9%; [15.2 to 26.2]), were the main contributors to the number of deaths., Conclusion: The burden of T2DM, in terms of mortality, DALYs, and YLDs, continues to rise in the region. The incidence rate of T2DM has increased in many areas. The burden of T2DM attributed to modifiable risk factors continues to grow in most countries. Targeting these modifiable risk factors could effectively reduce the growth and disease burden of T2DM in the region., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Headache disorders have become a significant global public health issue, with a notably high prevalence observed in developing countries. However, few studies have assessed headache disorders trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study aimed to assess the prevalence of headache disorders in individuals across the BRICS, spanning the years 1990 to 2019., Methods: We obtained headache disorders data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD2019). This evaluation examined incidence rates, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for migraine and tension-type headache (TTH) across demographic factors like age, gender, year, and country. Migraine and TTH were diagnosed based on the International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD-3) criteria. We used disease codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision to identify migraine and TTH cases. Statistical analyzes included calculating age-standardized rates and estimated annual percentage changes. Future disease burden was projected using a log-linear age-period-cohort model., Results: In 2019, India had the highest prevalence of migraine (213890207.93 cases) and TTH (374,453,700 cases). Brazil had the highest migraine age-standardized prevalence rate (18,331 per 100,000) and incidence rate (1,489 per 100,000). For TTH, India had the highest prevalence (26,160 per 100,000) while Russia had the highest incidence (11,512 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2019, China showed the greatest increase in migraine and TTH prevalence. India had the highest migraine (7,687,692) and TTH (741,392) DALYs in 2019., Conclusion: Migraine and TTH remain highly prevalent in BRICS nations, inflicting considerable disability burden. While India and China face mounting disease prevalence, Brazil contends with high incidence rates. Tailored interventions based on country-specific epidemiological profiles are warranted to mitigate the public health impact., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Zhang, Li and Guo.)

Asthma is a common chronic respiratory disease, with onset usually occurring during childhood or adolescence. The aim of this study was to estimate the dynamic changes in the burden of asthma disease among adolescents (aged 15-39 years). Between 1990 and 2019, our comprehensive analysis spanned 204 nations and territories to ascertain the global prevalence of asthma. This extensive evaluation meticulously quantified the disease's burden by examining a range of critical metrics-including mortality rates, prevalence figures, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)-across diverse demographics. Our investigation systematically segmented the data by age, gender, and year, as well as by geographical regions and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), offering an in-depth perspective on the multifaceted impact of asthma worldwide. From 1990 to 2019, there was a global increase in the incidence cases of asthma among young adults, with the number rising from 6487957.18 (95 %UI: 4578735.08-8736387.55) to 7604488.39 (95 % UI:5428024.98-10177808.25). The prevalence rate of asthma among young adults exhibited a decline from 580.09 per 1,00,000 (95 %UI:481.37-757.28) to 504.28 per 1,00,000 (95 %UI:400.64-633.26). It is also noteworthy that the incidence rates in the remaining SDI regions, although lower, also showed varying degrees of increase in 2015. The age-standardized disease burden rate for asthma among young adults has exhibited a decline over the course of the previous three decades. Nevertheless, regions characterized by lower SDI demonstrate elevated age-standardized mortality rates for asthma, thereby warranting focused attention and prioritized allocation of medical resources., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2023 The Author(s).)

Background: The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe is at a high level, but the epidemiological features have not yet been systematically studied. This study aimed to provide a timely and reliable assessment of the burden and trends of CRC in Europe to provide a scientific basis for its prevention and treatment., Methods: We analyzed data on CRC in 44 European countries between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019. In addition, the joinpoint regression model was applied to reflect temporal trends. The age-period-cohort model was constructed to explore age, period, and birth cohort effects that influence the risk of morbidity and mortality., Results: In Europe, new cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths of CRC rose by 70.01%, 22.88% and 38.04% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) has increased, while age-standardized DALY rate and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) have declined. We found that men experienced a significantly higher CRC burden than women. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the risk of incidence and mortality increased with age and time; and it was lower in the later-born cohort than the earlier-born cohort., Conclusion: ASIR for CRC in Europe generally trended upwards from 1990 to 2019, stabilizing in recent years but still at a high level. CRC burden varied considerably in different countries. There was a pronounced gender difference in CRC burden, and middle-aged and older men should be a priority population for CRC prevention and treatment., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Long, Mao, Zhang, Liu, Li, Xu and Zhu.)

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of cataracts, refractive disorders, age-related macular disease (AMD), and glaucoma, as well as their trends from 1990 to 2019 in Iran, in comparison with high-middle socio-demographic index (HMSDI) countries and the world, using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study., Methods: The GBD study provided data on the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment (VI), as well as four of their causes including cataracts, refractive disorders, age-related macular disease (AMD), and glaucoma. Using Joinpoint analysis, the annual percent change (APC) was calculated to assess the trend of change in prevalence in each category of diseases from 1990 to 2019, stratified by sex and age, for Iran, HMSDI countries, and the world., Results: In 2019, refractive errors and cataracts were the most common causes of blindness and VI for both genders in Iran, HMSDI countries and the world. Iran had a higher age-standardized prevalence in all four categories of ophthalmologic disorders compared to HMSDI countries and the world for both genders in 2019. Additionally, the age-specific prevalence of all four disorders in 2019 was higher in Iran compared to HMSDI countries. However, in terms of trends of prevalence from 1990 to 2019, the rate of reduction for the four ophthalmologic disorders in Iran was higher than in HMSDI and the world for both males and females. Furthermore, Iran had a greater percentage of reduction in prevalence for all age groups in all four disorders compared to HMSDI countries., Conclusion: The prevalence of cataracts, refractive errors, AMD, and glaucoma in Iran was higher compared to HMSDI countries in 2019 for both sexes and all age groups, but the trends of prevalence for all four disorders from 1990 to 2019 in Iran had a higher slope of reduction compared to HMSDI countries for all ages and sexes., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.)

As a severe public health issue, hearing loss has caused an increasingly disease burden, especially in the elderly population. Hearing loss may inevitably induce asymmetric hearing, which makes it difficult for elderly individuals to locate sound sources, therefore resulting in increased postural instability and falling risk. To emphasize the public health emergence of hearing loss, we investigated the temporal trend of prevalence of hearing loss over the last 30 years and further predicted its changes in the next 20 years, decomposed the trend according to demographic factors and epidemiological changes, and quantified the cross-country healthy inequalities, using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. In 2019, there were more than 140 million cases of hearing loss worldwide, a 93.89% increase from 70 million cases in 1990. The age-standardized rate (ASR) also increased with an estimated annual percentage change of 0.08% per year. Population growth and aging are the major drivers contributing to the changes, accounting for 60.83% and 35.35%. Of note, the contribution of aging varies showing a gradual increasing trend with sociodemographic index (SDI) elevating. Also notable, there were significant health inequalities across 204 countries and territories, with slope index of inequality rising over time. Projection of the global burden of hearing loss from 2020 to 2040 indicated progressive increases in both case number and ASR. These reflect the heavy disease burden of hearing loss that needed more targeted and efficient strategies in its prevention and management., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Scope: The study aims to estimates of the deaths and disability-adjusted life year rates (DALYs) of a diet high in red meat from 1999 to 2019., Methods and Results: The deaths and disability-adjusted life year rates (DALYs) attributable to diet high in red meat were analyzed by sex, age, and geographical location and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) from 1999 to 2019., Results: Globally, deaths and DALYs attributable to diets high in red meat have steadily increased between 1999 and 2019. The global deaths attributable to diet high in red meat have increased from 319,338 (95% UI 190,418 to 441,406) in 1999 to 411,066 (95% UI 250,993 to 573,864) in 2019 for females, and have increased from 335,711 (95% UI 183,491 to 472,091) in 1999 to 484,608 (95% UI 282,347 to 686,919) in 2019 for males. The global DALYs attributable to diet high in red meat have increased from 7,763,803 (95% UI 5,023,428 to 10,370,477) in 1999 to 10,164,451 (95% UI 6,816,205 to 13,348,860) in 2019 for females, and have increased from 9,564,377 (95% UI 5,528,491 to 13,231,311) in 1999 to 13,696,622 (95% UI 8,669,245 to 18,725,223) in 2019 for males., Conclusion: Globally, since 1999, deaths and DALYs caused by diets high in red meat have steadily increased., (© 2023 Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

Despite the significance of the associations of air pollution and greenness with the risk of breast cancer, this topic has not been investigated on a global scale. We conducted an ecological study using 7 years of data from 162 countries. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incidence data were used to represent the breast cancer disease burden. Particulate matter with a diameter < 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ), ozone (O 3 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were adopted as our exposures. We employed generalized linear mixed models to explore the relationship between air pollution and greenness on breast cancer disease burden. The rate ratio (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) indicate the effect size. There is a positive association between air pollution and the burden of breast cancer disease. Contrarily, per interquartile range increment in NDVI was negatively associated with DALYs and incidence. In terms of air pollutants and breast cancer, NDVI seems to have a significant influence on the relationship between these two conditions. A higher amount of greenness helps to alleviate the negative association of air pollution on breast cancer. PM 2.5 and O 3 play a mediating role in the relationship between greenness and breast cancer disease burden. In areas with higher levels of greenness, there is a possibility that the inverse association between air pollutants and the burden of breast cancer may be influenced., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Background: In recent years, headache disorders have garnered significant attention as a pressing global health issue. This concern is especially pronounced in low- to middle-income countries and exhibits a notable increase in prevalence among adolescents and young adults. Such a surge in these disorders has invariably diminished the quality of life for affected individuals. Despite its global impact, comprehensive studies exploring the ramifications of headache disorders in the younger population remain scant. Our study endeavored to quantify the global prevalence of headache disorders in individuals between the ages of 15 and 39, over a three-decade span from 1990 to 2019., Methods: Our study, conducted from 1990 to 2019, evaluated the impact of headache disorders, specifically migraines and tension-type headaches (TTH), in 204 different countries and territories. This comprehensive assessment included a detailed analysis of incidence rates, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across various demographics such as age, gender, year, geographical location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI)., Results: In 2019, there were an estimated 581,761,847.2 migraine cases globally (95% UI: 488,309,998.1 to 696,291,713.7), marking a 16% increase from 1990. Concurrently, TTH cases numbered at 964,808,567.1 (95% UI: 809,582,531.8 to 1,155,235,337.2), reflecting a 37% rise since 1990. South Asia reported the highest migraine prevalence with 154,490,169.8 cases (95% UI: 130,296,054.6 to 182,464,065.6). High SDI regions exhibited the most substantial migraine prevalence rates both in 1990 (22,429 per 100,000 population) and 2019 (22,606 per 100,000 population). Among the five SDI classifications, the middle SDI region recorded the highest tally of TTH cases in both 1990 (210,136,691.6 cases) and 2019 (287,577,250 cases). Over the past 30 years, East Asia experienced the most pronounced surge in the number of migraine cases. On the whole, there was a discernible positive correlation between the disease burden of migraine and TTH and the SDI., Conclusion: Migraine and TTH represent formidable challenges in global health. The intensity of their impact exhibits marked disparities across nations and is distinctly elevated among women, individuals within the 30-39 age bracket, and populations characterized by a high SDI. The results of our research emphasize the imperative of assimilating migraine and TTH management into contemporary healthcare paradigms. Such strategic integration holds the potential to amplify public cognizance regarding pertinent risk factors and the spectrum of therapeutic interventions at hand., (© 2023. Springer-Verlag Italia S.r.l., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: We aimed to document the current state of exposure to low bone mineral density (BMD) and trends in attributable burdens between 2000 and 2019 globally and in different World Health Organization (WHO) regions using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019., Methods: We reviewed the sex-region-specific summary exposure value (SEV) of low BMD and the all-ages numbers and age-standardized rates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and deaths attributed to low BMD. We compared different WHO regions (Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean Region, Europe, Region of the Americas, Southeast Asia, and Western Pacific), age categories, and sexes according to the estimates of the GBD 2019 report., Results: The global age-standardized SEV of low BMD is estimated to be 20.7% in women and 11.3% in men in 2019. Among the WHO regions, Africa had the highest age-standardized SEV of low BMD in women (28.8% (95% uncertainty interval 22.0-36.3)) and men (16.8% (11.5-23.8)). The lowest SEV was observed in Europe in both women (14.7% (9.9-21.0)) and men (8.0% (4.3-13.4)). An improving trend in the global rate of DALY, death, and YLL was observed during 2000-2019 (-5.7%, -4.7%, and -11.9% change, respectively); however, the absolute numbers increased with the highest increase observed in global YLD (70.9%) and death numbers (67.6%). Southeast Asia Region had the highest age-standardized rates of DALY (303.4 (249.2-357.2)), death (10.6 (8.5-12.3)), YLD (133.5 (96.9-177.3)), and YLL (170.0 (139-197.7))., Conclusions: Overall, the highest-burden attributed to low BMD was observed in the Southeast Asia Region. Knowledge of the SEV of low BMD and the attributed burden can increase the awareness of healthcare decision-makers to adopt appropriate strategies for early screening, and also strategies to prevent falls and fragility fractures and their consequent morbidity and mortality.

Background and Hypothesis: The burden of schizophrenia is increasing. Assessing the global distribution of schizophrenia and understanding the association between urbanization factors and schizophrenia are crucial., Study Design: We conducted a two-stage analysis utilizing public data from GBD (global burden of disease) 2019 and the World Bank. First, the distribution of schizophrenia burden at the global, regional, and national levels as well as temporal trends was analyzed. Then, four composite indicators of urbanization (including demographic, spatial, economic, and eco-environment urbanization) were constructed from ten basic indicators. Panel data models were used to explore the relationship between urbanization indicators and the burden of schizophrenia., Results: In 2019, there were 23.6 million people with schizophrenia, an increase of 65.85% from 1990, and the country with the largest ASDR (age-standardized disability adjusted life years rate) was the United States of America, followed by Australia, and New Zealand. Globally, the ASDR of schizophrenia rose with the sociodemographic index (SDI). In addition, six basic urbanization indicators including urban population proportion, employment in industry/services proportion, urban population density, the population proportion in the largest city, GDP, and PM 2.5 concentration were positively associated with ASDR of schizophrenia, with the largest coefficients being urban population density. Overall, demographic, spatial, economic, and eco-environment urbanization all had positive effects on schizophrenia, and the estimated coefficients indicated that demographic urbanization was the most significant influence., Conclusions: This study provided a comprehensive description of the global burden of schizophrenia and explored urbanization as a factor contributing to the variation in the burden of schizophrenia, and highlighted policy priorities for schizophrenia prevention in the context of urbanization., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide. Differences in social backgrounds and lifestyles in various regions and countries may contribute to the discrepancies in the disease burden of LBP., Methods: Based on the GBD 2019, we collected and analyzed numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of LBP disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Temporal trends in ASR were also analyzed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate age, period and cohort trends in DALYs of LBP. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast DALYs of LBP trends from 2020 to 2035., Results: The DALYs due to LBP increased from 1990 to 2019. The APC model showed that the risk of DALYs for global LBP increased with age and year and that the risk of DALYs was lower in the later-born cohort than in the earlier-born cohort. The main risk factors which GBD estimates were available for DALYs of LBP include smoking, occupational ergonomic factors and high BMI. It is expected that DALYs of LBP will continue to rise until 2035., Conclusion: From 1990 to 2019, the global disease burden of LBP remained high. It is necessary to pay attention to the influence of social factors and lifestyle on LBP. Focusing on the impact of social factors as well as lifestyle on the prognosis of LBP and targeting interventions may further reduce the disease burden of LBP., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of pneumoconiosis globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, and to provide a theoretical basis for prevention and control of pneumoconiosis. Methods: In September 2022, the data of incidence, prevalence, morality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of pneumoconiosis and its subtypes globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from GBD 2019, including absolute number and age-standardized rate (ASR). Joinpoint linear regression model was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC) and analyze the change trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of pneumoconiosis and its subtypes. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases and DALY value of pneumoconiosis showed upward trends, while the number of death cases showed downward trends. And the ASR of incidence (ASIR), the ASR of prevalence (ASPR), the ASR of mortality (ASMR) and the ASR of DALY (ASDR) showed downward trends globally and in China. China accounted for a large proportion of the global disease burden of penumoconiosis, accounting for more than 67% of the incident cases, more than 80% of the prevalent cases, more than 43% of the deaths cases and more than 60% of the absolute number of DALY in the world every year. Male were the main population of pneumoconiosis disease burden globally and in China, and the age of onset was earlier than that of female. The peak age periods of incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY of pneumoconiosis globally and in China from 1990 to 2019 have increased. Silicosis was still the type with the highest disease burden of pneumoconiosis globally and in China. The disease burden of coal workers' pneumoconiosis had an overall improvement trend, but asbestosis had an increasing disease burden worldwide. Conclusion: The disease burden of pneumoconiosis is heavy globally and in China, which is necessary to strengthen the supervision and prevention measures according to gender, age and etiological types.

Aim: To describe burden, and to explore cross-country inequalities across sociodemographic development levels for four autoimmune diseases (ADs) including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and psoriasis (PS)., Methods: The estimates and their 95% uncertainty interval (UI) for disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of RA, IBD, MS and PS were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) across 204 countries, as well as age and sex distribution of global DALYs rate of these four ADs were illustrated. Slope index of inequality and concentration index, which are two standard metrics of absolute and relative gradient inequality recommended by World Health Organization (WHO), were utilized to quantify the distributive inequalities in the burden of ADs., Results: In 2019, the ASDR of RA, IBD, MS and PS varied remarkably across 204 countries, with different age and sex distribution of global DALYs rate. The slope index of inequality changed from 26.7 (95% CI: 20.7 to 32.8) in 1990 to 40.3 (95% CI: 31.9 to 48.7) in 2019 for RA, from 17.1 (95% CI: 12.4 to 21.7) in 1990 to 25.2 (95% CI: 20.1 to 30.2) in 2019 for IBD, from 19.3 (95% CI: 15.2 to 23.4) in 1990 to 28.9 (95% CI: 24.2 to 33.5) in 2019 for MS, from 42.3 (95% CI: 33.1 to 51.6) in 1990 to 40.2 (95% CI: 32.5 to 48.0) in 2019 for PS. Moreover, the concentration index showed 20.4 (95% CI: 18.9 to 22.0) in 1990 and 18.2 (95% CI: 16.7 to 19.6) in 2019 for RA, 25.0 (95% CI: 23.0 to 27.1) in 1990 and 33.5 (95% CI: 31.6 to 35.5) in 2019 for IBD, 46.7 (95% CI: 44.0 to 49.3) in 1990 and 41.8 (95% CI: 39.6 to 44.1) in 2019 for MS, 31.7 (95% CI: 29.0 to 34.4) in 1990 and 32.6 (95% CI: 29.9 to 35.2) in 2019 for PS., Conclusions: There is a strong heterogeneity in ASDR across all countries, as well as in age and sex distribution of global DALYs rate for four ADs including RA, IBD, MS and PS. Countries with higher sociodemographic development levels shouldered disproportionately higher burden of ADs, and the magnitude of this sociodemographic development level-related inequalities exacerbated over time., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest This statement is to certify that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Cirrhosis remains a major public health concern globally; the burden of cirrhosis should be further clarified worldwide and helped us to understand the current situation of cirrhosis. In the present study, we estimate DALYs and mortality rates attributable to several major cirrhosis risk factors and use joinpoint and age-period-cohort methods to determine the trends of cirrhosis incidence and deaths in the global population in the 1990-2019 period. Globally, from 1990 to 2019, the incidence of cirrhosis, deaths due to cirrhosis, and cirrhosis DALY cases increased from 1274 (10 3 , 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1027.2-1548.5) to 2051.6 (10 3 , 95% UI: 1661.4-2478.1), 1013 (10 3 , 95% UI: 948.9-1073.9) to 1472 (10 3 , 95% UI: 1374.6-1578.7), and 34727.7 (10 3 , 95% UI: 32383.0-37132.8) to 46189.4 (10 3 , 95% UI: 43027.1-49551.3), respectively. Hepatitis virus was the most important cirrhosis mortality risk factor. Globally, hepatitis virus infection (HBV+HCV) accounted for more than 45% of the incidence of cirrhosis cases and about 50% of cirrhosis deaths. Importantly, from 1990 to 2019, the proportion of cirrhosis incidence due to HBV decreased from 24.3% to 19.8%, whereas that due to alcohol use increased from 18.7% to 21.3%. Additionally, the proportion of NAFLD-induced cirrhosis incidence increased from 5.5% to 6.6% over the same period. Our findings on the global disease burden of cirrhosis provide a valuable resource for developing targeted prevention strategies., (© 2023 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Objective: This study sought to investigate the parasitic diseases of neglected tropical diseases defined by the World Health Organization based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) database. Importantly, we analyzed the prevalence and burden of these diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 to provide valuable information to formulate more effective measures for their management and prevention., Methods: Data on the prevalence and burden of neglected parasitic diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the global health data exchange (GHDx) database, including the absolute number of prevalence, age-standardized prevalence rate, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rate. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the prevalence and burden changes, sex and age distribution of various parasitic diseases from 1990 to 2019. A time series model [Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)] was used to predict the DALYs of neglected parasitic diseases in China from 2020 to 2030., Results: In 2019, the number of neglected parasitic diseases in China was 152518062, the age-standardized prevalence was 11614.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 8758.5-15244.5), the DALYs were 955722, and the age-standardized DALY rate was 54.9 (95% UI 26.0-101.8). Among these, the age-standardized prevalence of soil-derived helminthiasis was the highest (9370.2/100,000), followed by food-borne trematodiases (1502.3/100,000) and schistosomiasis (707.1/100,000). The highest age-standardized DALY rate was for food-borne trematodiases (36.0/100,000), followed by cysticercosis (7.9/100,000) and soil-derived helminthiasis (5.6/100,000). Higher prevalence and disease burden were observed in men and the upper age group. From 1990 to 2019, the number of neglected parasitic diseases in China decreased by 30.4%, resulting in a decline in DALYs of 27.3%. The age-standardized DALY rates of most diseases were decreased, especially for soil-derived helminthiasis, schistosomiasis and food-borne trematodiases. The ARIMA prediction model showed that the disease burden of echinococcosis and cysticercosis exhibited an increasing trend, highlighting the need for further prevention and control., Conclusion: Although the prevalence and disease burden of neglected parasitic diseases in China have decreased, many issues remain to be addressed. More efforts should be undertaken to improve the prevention and control strategies for different parasitic diseases. The government should prioritize multisectoral integrated control and surveillance measures to prioritize the prevention and control of diseases with a high burden of disease. In addition, the older adult population and men need to pay more attention., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Xie, Shi, Wang, Guan, Wu and Wang.)

Background: Monitoring the transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in a population is fundamental for identifying the key population and designing prevention interventions. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the gender disparities in HIV incidence and the age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of HIV in India for identifying the predictors that might have led to changes in the last three decades., Data and Methods: This study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify the magnitude of the changes in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of HIV. The average annual percentage changes in the incidence were computed, and the age-period-cohort analysis was performed., Results: A decreasing trend in the overall estimates of age-standardized HIV incidence rates were observed in the period 1990-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence significantly declined from its peak in 1997 to 2019 (38.0 and 27.6 among males and females per 100,000 in 1997 to 5.4 and 4.6, respectively, in 2019). The APC was estimated to be 2.12 among males and 1.24 among females for the period 1990-2019. In recent years, although the gender gap in HIV incidence has reduced, females were observed to bear a proportionately higher burden of HIV incidence. Age effect showed a decline in HIV incidence by 91.1 and 70.1% among males and females aged between 15-19 years and 75-79 years. During the entire period from 1990-1994 to 2015-2019, the RR of HIV incidence decreased by 36.2 and 33.7% among males and females, respectively., Conclusion: India is experiencing a decline in new HIV infections in recent years. However, the decline is steeper for males than for females. Findings highlight the necessity of providing older women and young women at risk with effective HIV prevention. This study emphasizes the need for large-scale HIV primary prevention efforts for teenage girls and young women., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Shri, Bhattacharyya, Dhamnetiya, Singh, Jha and Patel.)

Background: Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a cause of chronic liver disease., Aim: Model the burden of NASH in the United States according to obesity., Methods: The discrete-time Markov model comprised adult NASH subjects moving through 9 health states and 3 absorbing death states (liver, cardiac, and other deaths) with 1-year cycles and a 20-year horizon. Given that reliable natural history data for NASH are not available, transition probabilities were estimated from the literature and population-based data. These rates were disaggregated to determine age-obesity group rates by applying estimated age-obesity patterns. The model considers 2019 prevalent NASH cases and new incident NASH cases (2020-2039), assuming that recent trends will continue. Annual per-patient costs by health state were based on published data. Costs were standardized to 2019 US dollars and inflated by 3% annually., Results: NASH cases in the United States are forecasted to increase by +82.6%, from 11.61 million (2020) to 19.53 million (2039). During the same period, cases of advanced liver disease increased +77.9%, from 1.51 million to 2.67 million, while its proportion remained stable (13.46%-13.05%). Similar patterns were observed in both obese and non-obese NASH. Among NASH, 18.71 million overall deaths, 6.72 million cardiac-specific deaths, and 1.71 million liver-specific deaths were observed by 2039. During this period, the projected cumulative direct healthcare costs were $1208.47 billion (obese NASH) and $453.88 billion (non-obese NASH). By 2039, the projected NASH attributable healthcare cost per patient increased from $3636 to $6968., Conclusions: There is a substantial and growing clinical and economic burden of NASH in the United States., (© 2022 Indian National Association for Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies., Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025., Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12-141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer., Conclusion: A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: Meningitis can cause devastating epidemics and is susceptible to climate change. It is unclear how temperature variability, an indicator of climate change, is associated with meningitis incidence., Methods: We used global meningitis incidence data along with meteorological and demographic data over 1990-2019 to identify the association between temperature variability and meningitis. We also employed future (2020-2100) climate data to predict meningitis incidence under different emission levels (SSPs: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)., Results: We found that the mean temperature variability increased by almost 3 folds in the past 30 years. The largest changes occurred in Australasia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa. With a logarithmic unit increase in temperature variability, the overall global meningitis risk increases by 4.8 %. Australasia, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and High-income North America are the most at-risk regions. Higher statistical differences were identified in males, children, and the elderly population. Compared to high-emission (SSP585) scenario, we predicted a median reduction of 85.8 % in meningitis incidence globally under the low-emission (SSP126) climate change scenario by 2100., Conclusion: Our study provides evidence for temperature variability being in association with meningitis incidence, which suggests that global actions are urgently needed to address climate change and to prevent meningitis occurrence., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: The aim of this study is to describe the colorectal cancer trend in the Slovakia between 2002 and 2019., Background: In 2020, the Slovakia ranked second among the 10 countries with the highest incidence of colorectal cancer and the highest number of deaths from colorectal cancer (hereafter also referred to as CRC)., Methods: To describe the situation of CRC, indicators of incidence and mortality rates stratified by age and sex for the available time period were chosen. A joinpoint regression software was used to identify changes in the trend of development., Results: During the 18-year follow-up period (2002-2019), the overall trend in colorectal cancer incidence continued to increase with an overall mean annual change of 1.3 %. The incidence of CRC tended to increase from 50 years of age and increased with age. The most pronounced increasing trend was observed in the age group of 75 years and older (AAPC in men 1.9 %, IS +1.4; +2.5 and in women 2.0 %, IS +1.6; +2.4). CRC mortality remained relatively stable for the entire 18-year period. A decreasing trend in mortality was observed in the 25-49 age group with an overall annual percentage decrease of 0.9 % (IS -1.5; -0.3), while an increasing trend was observed in the 75+ age group with an overall annual percentage increase of 1.0 % (IS +0.8; +1.3). The incidence and mortality rates in men were higher than in women., Conclusion: The situation of colorectal cancer trend in the Slovakia has improved compared to the previous period (1971-2001) (Tab. 4, Fig. 4, Ref. 34).

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the most common chronic respiratory disease in the world, especially in China. Few studies have explored the trend of COPD in China and its provinces. This study aimed to demonstrate and predict the trend of COPD DALY in China and its provinces based on the global burden of disease (GBD) data., Methods: The data on COPD disability-adjusted life year (DALY) were collected from GBD 2017, GBD 2019, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The age-standardized rate (ASR) was used to evaluate the trend of COPD DALY by gender, age, and risk factors in China and its provinces. In addition, the trend of COPD considering the aging population in the next 10 years was also predicted., Results: In China, the COPD DALY was 20.4 million in 2017, which decreased to 24.16% from 1990 to 2017. Most provinces showed a downward trend, with the exception of Taiwan which increased by 127.78%. The ASR of DALY was 1445.53 per 100,000 people in 2017 and demonstrated a significant decrease. Among all provinces, only Taiwan (97.78%) and Hubei (2.21%) demonstrated an increased trend of ASR. In addition, Tibet ranked third with a decline of 56.95%, although its ASR was the highest in 1990. Smoking and air pollution were the main risk factors for COPD and varied with regions, gender, and age. The proportion of COPD DALY attributable to smoking was higher in the middle-aged and elderly male population and did not decrease in China. Moreover, the ASR attributable to air pollution of the elderly decreased significantly in China. Socio-demographic index (SDI) and educational level were also found to be related to ASR. By predicting the ASR trend in the next 10 years, we found that the ASR attributable to smoking might increase significantly among men. The ASR attributable to air pollution showed a significant decrease in women. Unfortunately, ASR attributable to second-hand smoke was found to increase in women., Conclusion: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is the leading contributor to the burden of global diseases. Although China and its provinces demonstrated a downward trend of COPD DALY, some provinces still faced challenges. Moreover, ASR attributable to risk factors was different in regions, gender, age, and years. The predicted trend of COPD was also different. Therefore, more targeted strategies should be formulated to reduce the burden of COPD in China and its provinces., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Zhai, Jiang, Liu, Long, Zhang, Ren, Gong and Li.)

Aims: Policymakers and researchers have little evidence on prevalence rates of intellectual disability (ID) or their changes over time to tailor healthcare interventions. Prevalence rates and trends of ID are especially lacking in regions with lower socio-demographic development. Additionally, the assessment of inequalities in the prevalence of ID across regions with varying socio-demographic development is understudied. This study assessed variations in prevalence rates of ID from 1990 to 2019 and the related inequalities between low and high socio-demographic index (SDI) regions., Methods: This study used global data from 1990 to 2019 for individuals with ID from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases study. Data analyses were performed from September 2021 to January 2022. Prevalence for individuals with ID was extracted by sex, age groups and SDI regions. Annual percentage change (APC) was estimated for each demographic group within SDI regions to assess their prevalence trends over 30 years. Relative and absolute inequalities were calculated between low and high SDI regions for the various age groups., Results: In 2019, there were 107.62 million (1.74%) individuals with ID, with an APC of -0.80 (-0.88 to -0.72). There was a slightly higher prevalence among males (1.42%) than females (1.37%). The highest prevalence rates were found in the low-middle SDI regions (2.42%) and the lowest prevalence rates were in the high SDI regions (0.33%). There was a large reduction in the prevalence rate between the youngest age group v . the oldest age group in all the SDI regions and at all time points. The relative inequalities between low and high SDI regions increased over three decades., Conclusions: While an overall decrease in global prevalence rate for ID was found, relative inequalities continue to increase with lower SDI regions needing more comprehensive support services. The demographic trends indicate a significantly higher mortality rate among those with ID v . the rest of the population. Our study highlights the necessity for policies and interventions targeting lower SDI regions to mobilise resources that better support individuals with ID and achieve sustainable development goals proposed by the United Nations.